The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: Trump’s Ambitious Middle East Vision | Explained

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Starting point is 00:00:25 We'd love to talk. Business. Donald Trump this week had a historic tour of the Gulf monarchies in the Middle East. The subtext of all of these meetings were going to replace strife with money. We're all going to be profitable. And we have to bring the cause of all of this trouble, Iran, into the fold of the Middle East, and drop the hostility to Israel. Notice, of course, that he didn't go to Israel, although he was trying to elicit support

Starting point is 00:00:56 for the continuation of the Abrams Accord. But one thing that's not going on is we're not being estranged from the Arab world. We're not being estranged from Israel. This is not Joe Biden mouthing off about the Saudis or the Israelis. It's a new type of approach. This is very ambitious, but it's also very dangerous. Let's see how it works in the ensuing months. Hello, this is Victor Davis-Hansson for the Daily Signal.

Starting point is 00:01:32 Donald Trump this week had a historic tour of the Gulf monarchies in the Middle East in general. He went to Saudi Arabia and he met Muhammad bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, and he cut a huge deal which promised $600 million of Saudi investment in the United States and well over 130 or 40 million in Saudi purchasives of American arms. and he sort of reset the relationship that had been tenuous during the Biden administration. Then he went to guitar, which is a rival of Saudi Arabia, and he met the Emir, and he kind of topped the Saudi investment because they agreed to buy well over 200 777 Boeing passengers and 787. That purchase alone could be $200 billion with maybe a trillion dollars of investment.

Starting point is 00:02:32 At the same time, he met the de facto leader who's emerging out of the disruption and disintegration of Syria, Mr. Shara, who's had, unfortunately, he's had a history of terrorist activity, and he's been associated with al-Qaeda, ISIS, kind of a nebulous past. And the subtext of all of these meetings were going to replace strife with money. we're all going to be profitable, and we have to bring the cause of all of this trouble, Iran, into the fold of the Middle East, and drop the hostility to Israel. Notice, of course, that he didn't go to Israel, although he was trying to elicit support for the continuation of the Abrams Accords with Saudi Arabia and Gutter. This is very ambitious, but it's also very dangerous.

Starting point is 00:03:28 Donald Trump thinks he can cut a deal with Iran so that they would do essentially three things. They would give up their nuclear program. They would stop the subsidies to the terrorist surrogates of the Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and they would liberalize their society and reenter the family of nations. I don't think that Shia Theocracy feels that that is their agenda. I think what they're probably doing, given their prior history, they're negotiating, drawing out, and hoping they can outlast the Trump administration while they get closer and closer to 90% enrichment. And they don't think that Donald Trump, given the MAGA agenda that frowns on unilateral or optional military engagements,

Starting point is 00:04:18 especially in the Middle East, will be willing to sacrifice or endanger what has been a spectacular first time. hundred days, at least in economic terms. And so they feel that they're going to, I think, string Donald Trump along and wade him out, and then maybe with the Democratic administration, announce that they've reached 90% enrichment and have a few bombs. So what am I getting at? There's a couple of fundamental issues here. One is that the MAGA agenda is kind of a neo-isolationist that we don't get involved. But Donald Trump himself, as we saw the first administration, and as we saw with the Houthis, when he bombed them,

Starting point is 00:05:03 he has a Jacksonian deterrent in foreign policy, and they're coming into conflict. MAGA people do not want him to unilaterally stop the nuclear threat in Iran. They would prefer negotiations, but negotiations depend on that threat. By the same token, he's going to try to get the Saudis and the Middle East sheikdoms to pump more oil, pump more oil to not only bring down

Starting point is 00:05:30 the price of oil worldwide, but really, to be frank, to hurt Vladimir Putin's only source of income. And he feels that these two conflicts may be connected. If he can peel away the Middle East from China and Russia and bring down the price of oil, then Putin, who rumors have it, increasingly, is short men, manpower equipment, and wants to make a deal with Ukraine, but doesn't know how he's going to explain to the Russian people how he lost over a million dead wounded and missing Russians for what? Very little in return can he make that argument to the Russian people. In conclusion, Donald Trump is facing dichotomies with the MAGA agenda. and his Jacksonian foreign policy.

Starting point is 00:06:23 He's trying to get the Arab world to drop their hostility to Israel. At the same time, he's trying to reason, if that's the right word, with an unreasonable Iranian regime, and he wants oil to go down. I'm not sure that's going to help him in the United States. A lot of the frackers and horizontal drillers are, as the oil has dropped, they're not at a very big profit margin, and yet Trump wants him to do. spend more money and pump more and buy more rigs, etc. So there's a lot of things going on, but one thing that's not going on is we're not being estranged from the Arab world.

Starting point is 00:07:03 We're not being estranged from Israel. This is not Joe Biden mouthing off about the Saudis or the Israelis. It's a new type of approach that if everybody will just calm down, there's a great opportunity to make money and be profitable, and that would include the disarmament nuclearly of Iran and the inclusion of Israel and the body politic. Very ambitious. Let's see how it works in the ensuing months. Thank you very much.

Starting point is 00:07:33 It's Victor Davis-Hanson for the Daily Signal. Thank you for tuning in to the Daily Signal. Please like, share, and subscribe to be notified for more content like this. You can also check out my own website at victorhansen.com and subscribe for exclusive features in addition.

The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: Trump’s Ambitious Middle East Vision | Explained

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