The Daily Signal - Virginia GOP Faces Tough August Forecasts: One Leader Weighs In

Episode Date: July 30, 2025

With August about to begin the long-time Virginia election watchers say that this is when “it gets real.” The Washington Examiner just published election predictions made by the organization State Navigate that reported that by their estimates each Democrat candidate would win the statewide races by a minimum of 8 percent and that Lt Gov Winsome Sears would lose by 11. Moreover, they predict that the Democratic party will flip 7 seats in the House of Delegates. Flipping it to a GOP majority had been a key effort of the Republican Party leadership so that they could block the “Day Of” Abortion constitutional amendment. We sat down with one leader that is spending his time and campaign contributions on other candidates this year, Tom Garrett of Virginia’s 56th district (Fluvanna, Louisa, Goochland) and asked him if the race had really turned so badly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. Thanks for listening to this bonus episode of the Daily Signal podcast. I'm your host, Joe Thomas, Virginia correspondent for The Daily Signal. Before we dive into today's interview, I want to thank you for tuning in today. If you're a first time listener, The Daily Signal, brings you fact-based reporting and conservative commentary on politics, policy, and culture. And I hope you join our band of regular listeners to our podcast. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and also take a

moment to rate and review us wherever you get your podcast. You can find additional content at DailySignal.com. Now, let's get started with today's conversation right after this. With great puzzlement, I find myself looking at some of these reports now that claim that they have done statistical analysis of Virginia's General Assembly races and gubernatorial races with great confidence now saying that even beyond the wild. oldest dreams of Larry Sabado and the University of Virginia Center for Politics. It's 11 points to the Abigail Spanberger, eight points to the Jones, and even Jason Miaris is long since going to be too far from a repeat performance as Attorney General. Worse yet is that the Republican Party could

lose six to eight seats in the General Assembly rather than flipping it, which last time we spoke to House of Delegates, Representative Tom Garrett, leading the charge to try to flip two or three seats. We were talking about flipping two or three seats. And now these surveys are saying, you know, you'll be lucky to only lose three or four seats. Tom, what happened over the last few months? Look, here's the reality. Democrats are going to win three out of four cycles in Virginia regardless, right? Now, here's some math. So that's a 75 percent chance that Democrats win. There's a long, his story. history of Virginia recoiling in the opposite direction of the party that won the most recent federal elections. That was Donald Trump. So now you can push that up. And so conventional

wisdom already tells us this is a long shot. But you've got the lemming media essentially chiming in on, oh, Doomsday, which frankly is probably a textbook example of Wag the Dog, because there are a lot of things going on that don't jive with the sort of conventional wisdom. what's going on in Washington economically with the latest news on a trade deal with Europe, an incredibly beneficial trade deal with Japan, good news working with China, economic numbers that just look really good, right? A net gain of closing on two million jobs for Native-born Americans since January. Like, that's just crazy.

It's unreported. But there's a lot of good news that, things been factored out and which it becomes sort of wagged the dog thing to the extent that somebody says it and the goal isn't to purvey news but instead to shape it so there was an article not long ago in a prominent dc rag which shall not be named essentially designed to push out of state money away from virginia and then you get an echo stanger right so then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy if you say often enough that winsome Sears campaign is floundering, then you create a circumstance wherein you can expect a campaign

to flounder, particularly because people that read these national outlets are going, well, I don't want to put money where it can't succeed or can't win. Sure. So that's what's going on here, plain and simple. I have zero doubt. When Some Sears isn't running a great campaign, guess who else is it? Abigail Spanberger. Been horribly out of interest.

I wish that every day she would send a tweet as stupid as the. Happy tax day with the smiley face that she set down on April 15th, because that might be the most tone-deaf tweet of all time. And so she's not set in the world on fire either. I really genuinely believe that there's a lot of animus boards, winsome Sears, and John Reed, because they've sort of kicked the consulting class to the curb.

Now, that flows downhill because the top of the ticket's going to drive turnout for the bottom of the ticket, the House of Delegates, folks. but so the one I think that I read most recently said Abigail Spanberger has a 96% chance of winning the governor's mansion folks any old day she's got an 85% chance

just based on the demographics of Virginia right so let me give you another news flash Winston is actually ahead of Glenn Yonkin at the same time in the same polling yeah in the polls she's got better numbers right now than Yonkin had against Terry McCullough yes so you're watching

the sort of textbook quintessential waggna's dog operation. If we can get everybody to say it, then sooner or later, the perception becomes reality. Well, what about the house raises? Here's the nightmare for the folks in the house. Here's the nightmare for a person house. If you go to Tomfordelegate.com, drop a donation. We can't raise any money because everybody's been told that this is a fait of complete. We are so close to either tying or retaking the House of Delegates right now

that it becomes simply a question of resources. And again, all this negative news camps down our ability to give resources. So that's T-O-M-F-O-R delegate.com. You could donate online. But that's the nightmare scenario. We're watching in real-time people going, we don't have a chance, do you? Right? Well, because Paul Bard said so.

You know, I mean, every third article he writes is actually pretty good. But that leaves the other two out of three. So it is literally an echo chamber that is creating a reality that doesn't be, literally exist, but will, as everyone doubles down on it. And I, you know, I don't know how Larry Sabato votes every November, but I got a pretty good guess. So don't you think that the pundit class is all too happy to join in on burning down conservatism and, and the freedom movement here in Virginia? They certainly are. Well, and I know that you have been very ardently trying to help those races, those questionable, you know, the six or so races that the Democratic legislative campaign

committee is pouring baskets of their national money into to try to drive the Republicans to spend money in races that they were not necessarily going to target to try to flip. And I see the offensive. It's gotten ridiculous. It's got, they had targeted 12 and we had targeted four for a total of 16. Now they've targeted 16 and we've targeted six for a total of 22. Look, folks, Chad Green's not losing. And Tony Wilts not losing.

No matter how much they rigged the JMU student body, they register and vote twice, once at home and once in Harrisonburg. So the field's gotten ridiculously big on both sides. But yeah, we just choked off of resources because the perception is driving it. And if we can get Tom Ford Delegate.com, if we can get some money in the coffee. And it's not, look, I don't need it, but I'm giving it to people who do. This is, again, I mean, I just scratched my head and wonder how our society can function. when the media is so far straight from the vision that Thomas Jefferson had for them as purveyors of facts so that we might come to our own conclusions on that, which is best.

They're not there anymore. Let me do my bit to inoculate or perhaps treat with journalistic ivermectin here this infection then. I hate the idea of a single issue election. I hate the idea of it because there's four years or two years for a generalist. assembly member four years were statewide race. But is this 2025 House of Delegates election, as close as you can make a legitimate argument to a single issue race? I know that the issue of the abortion constitutional amendment will still have to come to the regular voter, but I know what the TV ads are going to look like. So and so, you know,

it's in your hands. Women's health is in your hands. And all the lies that have been made redoubly worse by the fact that calling it women's health when it's a day of birth abortion bill. And as you've pointed out, the most radical one that will exist on the planet Earth, is this as close as we'll ever have to a single issue election? And is this the issue? And I mean, stopping it. I mean, we don't get to control the media. They do. There's two issues that are driving this right now. And a third that's playing in the background to people who are tuned in. Obviously, the life vote has to come out or else we're done. Because they'll put this thing to a referendum.

I also encourage people to check out Bros.4ReproVA.com. Really? Democrat. Yeah, that's their movement. Now, bros for repro, which means like, hey, dude, if the girl can't get an abortion up until the moment of delivery, then that might cut into my casual sex life. I don't want to have responsibilities for my bra.

Right. So pros for repro VA is a good one. Like, they're like, hey, man, we're going to allow terminations up to the moment of birth. And if you don't vote for us, then that's not going to happen. And you scratch your head. But yeah, that's the big one because it's now or never. It literally we lose this House race. It's not even the governor's race.

Then you've got the most liberal abortion laws on the planet. The only abortion laws on the planet more liberal than these would be places with no abortion laws at all, literally. So that's issue number one. The second's right to work. That is spoiling just beneath the surface because all the tea leaves say that Abigail Spanberger would sign the bill that the Dengar cast used to get rid of it and unionize Virginia. Which would mean that our economy was booming, just like, you know, Maryland's and New York's. I think that was sarcastic at them. Yes, thank you.

In California, as you know. So that's issue, too. And then the third issue that's preeminent for people who are tuned in is the Second Amendment. If they win the House and the Governor's Mansion, you will have gun and magazine vans, et cetera, which, you know, in light of the tragic shooting in Manhattan yesterday, I think the magazine he had, the gunny had. had, the body armor he had, and the suppressor he had were all allegedly had, were all illegal in Manhattan, which begs the question, how on earth did he pull off the shooting? Yeah. Right. I mean, you've got some layered gun laws, which are coming to Virginia.

So that's, that's issue three, but that's only on the radar of people who were two-A voters. I think they get it, and most other folks don't. So it's, but it's life, you're right. Life is the preeminent driving issue, and the other two are there for the nerdy, wonky class. like me. Is there a courage issue amongst the delegates that are running? You've talked to a lot of them. Are they brave enough?

Do they possess the, what I like to refer to as intestical fortitude, even the women, to stand up and be honest about this and not wilt as so frequently people wilt to the idea of it's none of your damn business, just, you know, because this is so far beyond the traditional abortion argument, Tom, from where I said. Oh, look, so you had this vote last time around and there are pro-choice Republicans in the caucus, right? But every single one of them voted against this abortion amendment. So 50-50 kills the thing. Because it's so extreme, I mean, I don't know how many pro-choice Republicans there are,

but it's got to be 10 or more. The problem is that this isn't enshrining Roe in the, the Constitution is the Democrats continually tell us this is enshrining abortion up to the third contraction. This is enshrining abortion without parental notification and by minors. This is crazy stuff, right? Oh, you mean, you still need a medical provider to give you permission, yeah, including the abortionist, right? So that's a, you know, that's a lineup. Yes, you could have it. Or, you know, you need a mental health provider to say that it could have an impact on your mental health, well, I mean, I've got three kids. Childbirth has an impact on mental health. It has an impact on the mother's mental health. Probably has an impact on the father's mental health. So the bar is set so low that even pro-choice Republicans of which there are at least double digits have voted against it, but you're going to get lied to on TV ads again and again and again. And there's no accountability for the lives. They just do and they get away with it. So they'll stop.

So even those folks, and you mentioned they voted against it, but when they're campaigning, and this is where I feel like they're going to, you know, we are in peril of as this state navigator site says, losing seven seats in a house we're already at a one seat deficit in, because they don't want to suit up for this. If we lose seven seats, Joe, if we lose seven seats, then the people declaring that we're going to lose seven seats are as much to be. lame as anyone. I mean, they have created, and I think intentionally a horrific environment for us. The national political circumstances and tragically all even local elections are sort of national because of the way the media works are spectacularly better than we could have imagined just a month or two ago. You get a hack on Iran and you're going to tell me that everything's hunky dory a month later. So everything's great except the media says it's not great. It's disgusting. It's crazy. So, yeah, but again, me too, me too. And again, if you simply said, came out and said

the Democrat will gain seats and win the state white elections, about four to five times you're right anyway, just because that's where Virginia is now. So this is, I mean, am I telling you that we're going to take the House? No, but I'm absolutely telling you we can. Everyone's saying we can't makes it become reality. It drives me nuts. Well, and I think it's important because if there is a one-seat majority in the House, then the abortion amendment gets stopped, cold, stop. It doesn't even need to be a one-seat majority. We hang it up at 50-50.

Doesn't get out of the chamber. Presuming that all the Republicans and Democrats go the same way they did the last time around. So we pick up one seat and we literally save tens of thousands of lives, literally, and I'm not a millennial, so I do know what that means. Fair. Well, Tom, I appreciate this. aside from you, as you said, you're trying to help all the people out you can.

Is that the best way to do it? Give to individual delegates, or should they contact RPV? No, don't give it to RPV. With all due respect, RPV and Senator Peake, he's doing a wonderful job. You need to find a delegate, who you trust, Tomfordelegate.com. And that delegate's going to take the resources that they get, and then they're going to spread them around where they need to go. You could try to figure out which races were the tightly contested races.

However, somebody in the House is going to know where they need to get. I think I've given money to eight or nine different Republican delegates myself already. That number is going to go up. I'm given to delegates who have a chance of unseating Democrats, and I'm given the candidates who are in tightly contested districts. So the most efficient way to do it is to give it to somebody, who you trust and trust that they will give it to the people who need it the most, unless you're a wonky, nerdy guy and you already know sort of which race is the tightly contested.

And who are the most likely candidates from where you said, or do you not want to pick that, as you said? Well, I'm happy to play that game. So do you want to know which Democrats we think we can beat or which Republicans are in the toughest races? Both. I'm greedy. Okay. Okay. So Michael Fagans, who's down in Virginia Beach, is a Democrat we think we can beat.

Nadarius Clark, who's down in Chesapeake, Suffolk, is a Democrat we think we can beat. Josh Cole and Josh Thomas and Fredericksburg, Stafford, and Prince William, respectively, are both Democrats we think we can beat. Those are the four where I think we've got a very realistic chance of winning, got good candidates in all of those races. If you want to expand that playing field, because we're up to six now, Phil Hernandez, Norfolk, who actually is single-handedly responsible for killing my bill, which would have guaranteed a tax deduction for 100% disabled veteran student loan interest. And he killed that because he said, well, it doesn't expire until next year. So we'll get to it next year.

And guess what? It never happened. Thanks, Bill, representing Norfolk with a bunch of veterans in it for, and that was essentially like we can't let Tom Garrett have this victory. But I mean, literally, and who knows how many veterans, 100% service disabled veterans, be hosed for purely political reasons. So that's five. That's the four that I think we can get plus one.

The Democrats have got crosshairs on Kerry Corner down in Chester, Kim Taylor and Petersburg, and some of those rural surrounding areas as a Republican, who I think won about 300 and some votes last time. David Owen, who famously ran against a woman who was performing sex acts for pay online. Yeah. And barely won that race. in Western Henrico, and I think I can say that, Western Henrico and Eastern Goochland,

that's probably the hardest race. Those are three. Amanda Batten, who's got the College of William and Mary, Chris Oban-Chain, who's got Virginia Tech. These are places where the Democrats are really good at getting college kids to change their registration, like right before the election and vote. And so that creates tougher playing fields than the district would tend to indicate the heck. They're targeting, this is how bad. Scott. Now, they're targeting like Tony Wilt and Harrisonburg trying to play that with JMU.

Like, if Tony Wilt loses, we got bigger problems. Well, yeah. Well, JMU is, I mean, while JMU is a college of university, obviously, Joe, you're quite familiar with Harrisonburg, Rockingham, Augusta County. And these are areas that want to elect Republicans. So, you know, there's five, I think we can get for realistically, one's a stretch. and then there's what four or five

that they think they can get again they're going after guys like Chad Green and Gary Higgins you know who are in like Trump minus one districts or whatever but I mean Chad served on the board of supervisors in York County for multiple everybody loves them down there

guys not going to lose so again I think the Democrats are strategically aware that they're going to out fundraise us so the more they expand the playing field even in raises that they're probably not going to win, the more we have to defend, which it causing us to defend takes us off of the offense. And I think there's a lot of that. So again, I mean, the best way to get bang for your buck.

And the worst thing about this is, and I think it's totally intended is it's absolutely create, we're already going to get out fundraise to three to one. We can still win, but four or five to one, we can't. So suck in the oxygen out of the rim by creating a false impression of reality. And that, that, which I think is the intent. And that's the hard thing for folks who are trying to work to retake the house. Like, I'm not working to retake my seat because I'm going to. I'm working to retake the house because we need to.

Well, I appreciate this. And your prognosis then, you know, which is you talked about, you know, then getting the actual narrative of the accomplishments of the economy, not just the last four years, but of the last four, six months, is that going to be a harder lift than talking about some of the issues that could be perilously in play if the house flips or becomes bluer? Well, so the economy has to be so good that the media can't deny it if we're talking about the federal economy.

And it was so bad under Biden and they did such a, like, how good is that? If it has to be so good that the media can't deny it, exactly how good is that? Because they will turn up these trade deals that we are getting vis-a-vis the tariffs. And I said this, I think on, you know, four or five months ago on your show, I don't think Trump loves tariffs. Tariffs are a tool in the toolbox to get to a point that he does love, which is trade agreements that don't absolutely stick it to the United States. Yeah. And, you know, I guess Trump has now negotiated and the hostilities between Cambodia and Thailand. I can't, I've never seen anything like this guy, but they won't tell you that.

I mean, so it's got to be so good that they can't deny it, which is really, really. really good. And if you don't have money, you can't tell people, you can't tell people for them, right? So money is message and these negative, these negative stories, these skies falling chicken little lemming media stories are ultimately conceived by someone to push the money out so that they create the reality that they're discussing and shame on the Republican media because they're out there who are parroting this bull crap. Well, I appreciate it, Tom. What's that website again? Oh, gee, Tom, T-O-M-4-F-O-R delegate.com, I promise you, any help that I can get will be help that we get because I'm giving it away faster than I'm bringing it in right now trying to retake the house. Again, 50-50, picking up one seat will effectively allow us to defend life for at least four years. That'll do it for today's show. Don't forget to hit that subscribe button so you'll You never miss out on new episodes from The Daily Signal.

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