The Daily Signal - When Will We Know Who Won the Election?

Episode Date: October 30, 2024

It’s a race to 270. With just six days until the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are seeking to motivate voters in key swing states across the nation in hopes of picking up enough support to earn 270 electoral votes and claim victory.  Trump will speak to voters Wednesday afternoon in North Carolina’s 1st District, a region that is anticipated to determine which candidates win the state’s 16 electoral votes. Harris will only be an hour away, holding a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.  In addition to North Carolina, states to watch on election night include Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. And Heritage Action for America Executive Vice President Ryan Walker argues that Harris should not count on winning Virginia, despite the fact that President Joe Biden easily carried the state in 2020. The razor-thin margins in the swing states indicate that it may take several days for the American people to know who their next president will be, and some states, like Nevada, pose a unique challenge to determining a winner.  On Monday, the Nevada Supreme Court affirmed a lower court decision that mail-in ballots with no postmark can be received and counted until three days after the election.  There is, however, a chance the winner will be known on election night, according to Walker. "I think that the energy and enthusiasm gap is such this year that we'll know a significant amount of information going into Election Day," Walker said. "And if we can extrapolate those numbers and compare them to Election Day results in previous years or get some initial data on exit polling, there is a chance that the winner could be declared on election night despite some of these states having late arrival votes that they're still counting." Walker joins “The Daily Signal Podcast” to discuss the key issues on the minds of voters this election, and to predict when the presidential election will be called. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the Daily Settle podcast for Wednesday, October 30th. I'm Virginia Allen. The election is just six days away, and both candidates are hyper-focused on the swing states. There are seven swing states in total from where President Donald Trump will be in North Carolina today, Wednesday, for a rally. And I've been in North Carolina for two days now talking to voters. And Heritage Action for America, executive vice president, Ryan Walker, has been spending a lot of time in the seven swing states over the state. past several months. Ryan joins a show in just a minute to talk about what he's been hearing from voters and what we might see in just six days. Stay tuned for our conversation after this. Your government is out of control. It's doing things it has no business doing. It spends way too much money. It gets involved in way too many wars. It not only tells you what you can and can't say, it actively censors you. And the things your government should do, it can't or worse won't do it all. It can't keep your streets clean of crime and It can't keep your neighborhoods safe enough for kids to play outside.

It can't even prevent your country from being invaded by millions of illegal immigrants. Why is that? Because your leaders no longer represent you. They represent themselves and their friends. In my new show, The Signal Sit Down, we'll expose how the sausage really gets made in Washington, D.C., with guests who have experience on the inside. Fingers will be pointed, names will be named. You ready?

Heritage Action for America Executive Vice President Ryan Walker joins us now. Ryan, thanks so much for being here. Thank you for having me on. So when we talk about these seven swing states, we are talking Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. We had Scott Rasmussen on the show earlier this week to talk about polling and kind of what we're seeing. But I really want to talk about the ground game in some of these states right now. what we're hearing from voters and what some of the messages are that both candidates are really

pushing out to voters that is really significant in looking at, okay, what are the issues that resonate most specifically with voters in these states? And I want to talk about first, Michigan. This is a really fascinating state. And I know you have interesting thoughts on this state because by and large, folks have said, well, yes, it's a swing state, but likely Harris is going to win it. You disagree with that. Why? Yeah, I do. So I think that Michigan is a very close state. We've seen the recent polling. It looks like at best, it's a coin flip. And that's based on public polling. And I think an important aspect that is probably missed in this election cycle and with polling and where we're seeing where the people are is that a lot of people aren't responding to polls. We saw this in 2016. There was

some of it in 2020, but people, especially this close to the election, may not be as willing to answer polls. And in particular, folks who have been supporting other candidates who are no longer in the race, RFK comes to mind in this in particular. He was ostracized and the Democrats, you know, tried to keep him out of the race or depending on the state, they wanted to keep him on the ballot. but they were playing political games with his campaign. And I think that his supporters, you know, if you're an RFK supporter and you see what the Democrats and the Democratic Party are doing to your candidate, or at least perceptively, I don't know that you start responding to polls after you see what happened to your candidate.

I don't know that you're willing to get on the phone and give your honest take on this. And that comes on top of sort of the narrative that we saw from 2016 with that. was that there was essentially what people started referring to as a silent majority in the country that simply weren't responding to polls. And I think that could very well be the case in Michigan. And we've seen some early vote totals that put the state within, I don't know, one percentage point, either way. And it really depends on turnout on election day or probably will for the state of Michigan. But it'll be a coin flip. And there's a very good chance that could go Donald Trump's way. What about the Muslim vote in Michigan? That's a major wild card. Do we

have any indication that if the Muslim voters are choosing not to back Harris, that they would actually vote for Trump? Well, you know, I think it's an open question. I think that there are multiple population centers within the country that have this same question around them. And I don't know that it's this black or white answer that we all probably want to know whether the Hispanic population will vote for Trump or Harris. I think it's probably what and how we all, the rest of Americans interact with the election process is that it will be some varying degree of those people that end up voting for either of the candidates. The important dynamic in all of that is that degree matters a lot in an election that was in 2020 determined by 22, 24,000 votes.

So if the turnout in the Muslim population in Michigan is depressed, it could mean significant, significant vulnerabilities for the Harris campaign. And the way the Democrats have been acting and interacting with the Palestinians and the war in Israel and the terrorist attack from October 7th and their response on the campaign trail where they've had to sort of walk that back a bit, I think it could seriously harm turnout in the Muslim population. I don't know if it means that they end up voting for Trump, but if they don't show up, that's a lost vote for Paris. I want to insert a question here on the Senate race in Michigan, because this is also a really close race. You have a Democrat candidate, Elisa Slotkin against Republican, Mike Rogers.

This is definitely a big question mark here. Any thoughts on what we might see in the Senate race? Yeah, I, you know, I don't know. It's very anecdotal at this point. I've heard that polling numbers, internal polling numbers for the campaign on the Republican side look pretty good within strike. distance again for election day. Elis Slotkin has been out in public, publicly shaming the party for not committing more resources to her race in Michigan. And so when politicians start acting that way and start making those public pronouncements or sort of frustrations with their own party, I think it's very telling. And it at least acknowledges the fact that there is a race to be had in Michigan. Now, whether it is within one or two points on election day and Republicans could come

over the top and ultimately win that, I don't know that we're there yet, but, you know, we've got six or so days left in the cycle, and the momentum is certainly on the Republican side. So it could very well, again, get there. And if Trump carries the state, that certainly helps with down ballot. Well, in Wisconsin, right next door, you have a little bit of a similar situation where not only is it razor thin between Harris and Trump, but you also have another Senate race there that's also razor thin between Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin facing off against Republican, Eric Hovde. Is that another race that you think is just way, way too close to tell? I think it probably is on the Senate side. Now, there is a better conversation on the presidential

ticket and what early vote looks like in Wisconsin. The lead for Republicans has come down a few tenths of a percentage point over the past couple of days in Wisconsin in our lead on early vote. But we're outperforming. We're outperforming 2020 numbers. We're outperforming 2022 numbers in the midterms. So it all looks very good in Wisconsin. I think the question for for me is whether the top of the ticket dictates down ballot and whether folks in Wisconsin are willing to split ticket and vote for a Republican at the top and a Democrat Senate candidate down ballot. I don't, you know, I don't I just don't know enough information about how the voters in Wisconsin are engaging on that specific question. Yeah. Well, Ryan, I was telling you before we hit recording that I'm down in North Carolina right now,

and I've been talking to voters, and it's been really fascinating to see what the issues are that they're most passionate about. I've repeatedly heard the major issues that we know are driving this election from voters here in Nash County in North Carolina. It's a swing county. And they are fascinated and really passionate about the issues of the economy, border and immigration. and abortion. And when I specifically ask Harris voters, why are you supporting Harris, they seem to really appreciate her story. They like where she came from. They feel like they can relate to her background. Maybe they were raised by a single parent. They resonate with that. And then the main issue that Harris voters are bringing up is the issue of abortion. But I would be curious to hear since you have been in so many swing states, is that a similar narrative that you

have heard from those supporting Harris that among the issue set, that abortion is one of the first things that they're raising. For certain demographics of the country, certainly. Single women in particular, that is one of the top, if not the top issue that they have on their minds. And so when you're in major metropolitan areas, that tends to be an outsized, that has an outsized impact on the issues that that geographic region is considering the most important. I would say that though, that the economy and crime and immigration seem to be and continue to be and have been this entire year. They have not changed in what we've seen on the ground and the conversations that we've had with voters. And it goes beyond just simple contentions with inflation and how much

groceries costs. It's also small things that they wouldn't necessarily be able to identify or tell you it's the energy efficiency requirements on all of my home appliances from the federal government that are causing me the most strife in my daily life. But we've heard that retort from multiple people on the ground, many homes and families in the state of Georgia as an example. We've been door knocking and touched tens of thousands of homes in the state of Georgia. And that conversation's come up multiple times. And they don't say it's the energy efficiency requirements on my dishwasher or my clothes dryer or my clothes washer. But they do say that my dishwasher takes multiple cycles to clean my dishes. My clothes washer and dryer take multiple cycles. And what I

end up doing is spending my entire day dealing with the trappings of life. And these appliances were supposed to create efficiency in our life. They were supposed to allow us to do other activities and not spend our days doing all of this. And they feel that. You know, I think you and I probably experienced that too. And that's a real sentiment. Now, does that move people to the polls? I think it honestly does for a few if you can connect them with the candidates that have caused

the problem, which is what Heritage Action has been on the ground doing. But, no, I think that major issues, broadly speaking, throughout the entirety of the country, remain inflation and the price of goods, energy costs, housing costs, things of that nature. Crime, people have felt the crime issue. We just recently saw the FBI come out with updated information showing that actually crime has risen by close to 5% across the country violent crime, which people feel and they hear about and they read about. And then immigration and the open border and the resources, most importantly, the resources

from their communities that are having to be devoted to these. illegal immigrants that are in their communities and have been for the better part of three years. Yeah, it was interesting. I was in North Carolina here. I was talking yesterday to a small business owner, and he said one of the major factors is the price of gas because he owns retail stores. And he says, if people are having to spend more on gas, they're not going to go out and splurge on that new television or the watch that they've wanted. And he said that would be one of the main things. he rattled off a few, but he said that's one of the main things that really needs to change in order for my business to kind of bounce back is for that price of gas to go down.

Ryan, I would be curious to hear your thoughts about Pennsylvania. I personally have this stake in Pennsylvania because from the perspective of elections and I think the history books and how we talk about elections and candidates being chosen, I think Pennsylvania has the potential of being this really historic. state because Harris chose walls over Shapiro, Shapiro, of course, being the governor of Pennsylvania. And if Harris loses Pennsylvania by a thin margin, I think, you know, her campaign is never, especially if Pennsylvania costs for the election, I think her campaign is never going to live down the fact of why didn't you choose Shapiro as that VP running mate for Harris.

And I've also heard on another side of, well, you know, if Trump wins, manages to win, Pennsylvania, probably he'll win the whole election. Can we put that much stock in Pennsylvania, though? A lot of people are. I think you have to make a lot of assumptions to be able to get there. Trump would have to secure the entire sunbelt, so he would have to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina. And Democrats, you know, very well could come down to that, but a lot of dynamics have to come to fruition for that to be the case. On Pennsylvania itself, I agree with you on the historic nature of Pennsylvania. We saw the Federman Oz race in 22, and we saw how tight the state's been in 16 and in 20. And I think what we're seeing in early vote in Pennsylvania is historic,

historic for Republicans and conservative voters in the state. And it portends a very good picture for Republicans come election day. And so I think that if the trends continue and the early vote numbers continue and we still have a good showing on election day like we all anticipate happening, Pennsylvania will go for Trump this cycle. And I feel pretty confident in that, looking and, you know, reviewing the numbers. In fact, some more came out this morning. I think it could be a historic win for President Trump in that state. And to your point, it could decide the entire election. Wow. Let's talk about some of these other states we haven't touched on Nevada, Arizona, Georgia. In Nevada specifically, we just saw that the Nevada Supreme Court ruled on

Monday that mail-in ballots without a postmark can be received and counted until four days after the election. Does that mean that we're probably not going to know who won Nevada until Saturday after the election? Yeah, unfortunately, there are a number of decisions that have been made in Nevada, specifically. Arizona is a bit different because some of their statute on election law requires that they conduct their elections this way. But in Nevada, yeah, that can certainly be the case that we wouldn't know. Now, if you look at early vote numbers in Nevada and where we are historically, Republicans talk about historic numbers. The historic numbers in this cycle right now, certainly in Pennsylvania, but Nevada, to me, is striking. We have not had the lead in early vote in that state.

since before the Harry Reid political machine was established in that state many, many years ago. And we're leading now, and we have a firewall that Democrats have to beat in that state. Now, everything, you know, a lot of things can change. A lot of things can happen. We're still six days out from the election. But things are looking very, very good in Nevada, historic and flippable. Okay. So, you know, I will see how it turns out on Election Day.

whether these lingering mail-in ballots continue to trickle in, but it looks very good so far. What are you putting your money on as far as when we're actually going to know who won, whether it's Trump or Harris? I think that the energy and enthusiasm gap is such this year that will know a significant amount of information going into Election Day. and if we can extrapolate those numbers and compare them to election day results in previous years or get some initial data on exit polling, there is a chance that the winner could be declared on election night despite some of these states having late arrival votes that they're still counting. There is a chance that we could know on election night. However, as you sort of have alluded to, and we've talked about some of these states,

Arizona, in particular Maricopa County, will have some lingering time where they will be counting. There may be some counting going on in states like Georgia, states like Nevada. But it all depends on the margin on election day. If the margin is so great on election day, those numbers may not matter. And networks and political pundits and election experts will have to be making that call. on election night or very soon after. So it could be that we know on election night. Okay. Ryan, briefly before I let you go, we haven't touched it all on House races. What are we looking at there? What are you watching closely and how likely is it that Republicans

are able to hold on to the House? I think there's a very high likelihood that we could hold on to the House. There are a number of battleground districts, namely in Long Island, New York, folks like Mike Lawler, Representative Despacito, a number of folks in the Long Island territory in New York are on the ballot again this year. Those were Biden carried districts in 2020, but had a Republican challenger ultimately went out for congressional representation. Those seats will be very important to defend and maintain, and a lot of those are looking pretty good. There are a few that are a coin flip. There are a couple of races. is out in California. We actually saw Donald Trump go out to Coachella, California, recently in this

election cycle a few weeks back to support those California Republicans who are on the ballot this year. Those are also up for grabs. And then we have a smattering of battleground districts throughout the country, folks like Yvette Harrell in New Mexico, who has a very good shot at winning a congressional seat there. We have folks challenging people like Congressman Golden in Maine for that. seat and they could ultimately be successful. We have a few other challenging seats. Joe Kent out in Washington State could pick up a seat. There's a challenge to Don Davis down in North Carolina. That could be a Republican pickup. So there are a number of seats that we're vying for. But ultimately, I think the story out of the House this year will be that regardless of what party wins and who has the

majority, the margin will be dramatically small, small in the sense that we've seen over the two years with the the thin, razor-thin, Republican majority. I think that we'll see similar, regardless of which party wins out on Election Day. But again, I think that Republicans have a very good chance of keeping the majority. Heritage Action for America's Ryan Walker. Ryan, thanks for your time today and all your analysis. Thanks for having me on. Well, for all of our listeners, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. So you never miss out on brand new shows from the Daily Signal, especially right now, during this wild whirlwind. is the election season. And be sure to catch the show on Friday. We're going to be bringing you

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