The Daily Signal - Will He or Won’t He? Virginia’s Youngkin Eyes 2028 as Speculation Swirls.

Episode Date: July 11, 2025

Everyone wants to know “what’s next?” So, when the outgoing Republican Governor of Virginia carries a 54% approval rating from a blue-ish (purple?) state into speaking invitations at the Iowa and South Carolina which happen to hold two of the first three Presidential primaries in 2028, the questions start flying. To be fair, they have been flying before and Governor Glenn Youngkin has become very adept at deflecting them with a quick, “I’m just focused on making Virginia the best state for (insert what ever event he is at when he’s asked) and that’s a full-time job.” However, in just a few months he won’t have that job anymore so, will he or won’t he? We asked experts in Virginia politics and campaigning to give us their reading of the T.E.A. Leaves. Chris Saxman, former Delegate to the General Assembly and publisher of “Virginia FREE” business newsletter and Zach Werrell, campaign architect for Dave Brat’s upset victory over Rep. Eric Cantor in 2014 tell us what THEY think this means. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. Thanks for listening to this bonus episode of the Daily Signal podcast. I'm your host, Joe Thomas, Virginia correspondent for The Daily Signal. Before we dive into today's interview, I want to thank you for tuning in today. If you're a first-time listener, The Daily Signal, brings you fact-based reporting and conservative commentary on politics, policy, and culture. And I hope you join our band of regular listeners to our podcast. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and also take a

moment to rate and review us wherever you get your podcast. You can find additional content at DailySignal.com. Now, let's get started with today's conversation right after this. Late in 2019, long before anyone thought of the next gubernatorial race, and quite honestly, most Virginians were concerned with what Governor Northam was going to bring in the way of lockdowns and restrictions on activity in the Commonwealth as we grappled with the burgeoning COVID-19 threats, and through the course of 2020, an unknown CEO of a multi-billion dollar investment group known as Carlisle started visiting Republican Party group meetings or Zoom meetings and visiting with the membership to talk with them and say, hey, I just want to get to know you better.

And then, sure enough, long before anyone had ever even thought of who was going to be the gubernatorial nominee to run against Terry McColliffe in 20. everyone in Republican circles was buzzing about this CEO who seemed to have a natural ability to connect with people and to really get to know what their interests were. Therefore, at the end of the primary votes and the decentralized convention, it really at that point had become little surprised that Glenn Yonkin was the Republican nominee to run for governor. He wasn't an overnight success. He was a two-year-long overnight success, just to those who are watching.

That's why when it became known last week that Governor Yonkin was going to be addressing the Iowa Republican Party and the South Carolina Republican Party later on this month, it became a curiosity as those are two of the three first primary states in the 28 GOP presidential primary. So we decided to pull in some experts on campaigning, Republican politics, and even the governor of Virginia himself. To get a feel for, is this the same gambit he did in 2019 when he started laying the groundwork long before anyone else did for his run for governor? And we bring in our expert panel, Chris Saxman, editor of Virginia Free and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates from Stanton. and Zach Whirl campaign manager who's led many successful campaigns, including Dave Bratt's insurgent campaign that won him the GOP nomination to run for the U.S. House of Representatives unseating House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Chris, welcome back. How are you doing, sir? I'm doing well. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me.

Well, I really appreciate you doing this because of all the people I know in the commentariat, you are as loathe as possible to. to get out on these predictive and projectionist limbs when it comes to reading tea leaves and stuff like that. So when I said to you, I'm really interested in Governor Yonkin's visits to the Iowa and South Carolina GOP this month. I almost expected you to say, nah, I'm not really going to get into that. But maybe it's trusted me that I'm not out here trying to say Governor Yonkin is this or that. But out of the curiosity, because I know that this was long before anyone knew even how to spell Yonkin, how he was building his grassroots support for his gubernatorial run in 2020 and 2019 visiting these GOP units around Virginia, just stopping by saying hi, talking to folks, seeing what they were about, all the while planning to at some point say, hey, you know, I'm going to run for governor. I'd like your support. Is he building a nationwide version of that same model that he used to sweep first to the GOP nomination in Virginia, in your view?

It would seem so, but I don't think the analogy is, I mean, there's an obvious similarity. I think he had every intention of running for governor, and he has every intention of putting together the decision-making process. to run for president. I mean, obviously, the market has changed since he first dipped his toes into the presidential. I wouldn't say presidential waters, but certainly he didn't run away

from the conversation during his tenure as governor. I'll just leave it at that. And, you know, he spoke at our, the Virginia Free Luncheon at Christmas, a week before Christmas, which is like the social event of the season for business and political leaders

after the governor's presentation. But he spoke to our lunch in 2016. So he has been looking at politics, and, you know, he's very good at it, obviously. He's very well thought of. He's a very good man. And I think he'd make a, you know, a good national candidate. That all said, you know, when you go to, I don't know, his geography when he ran for governor and landing some groundwork, I'm sure he didn't start out going to Henry County and Lee County and, you know, Dinwiddie, the first forays. I'm sure. No disrespect. I mean, I represented, you know, you know, some small rural counties myself and as in the legislature. But, you know, when you go to Loudoun and Prince William and Henrique and Chesterfield and Virginia Beach, Fairfax, those are where the votes are. And so when you see, oh, Yonkin's going to be in South Carolina and Iowa, that ain't Montana and Wyoming either, right?

It's not, it's, we know the circuit. Well, yeah, and the lineup. And it was probably, yeah. And I got a call from someone out in Washington State. I'm trying to book him. I'm like, okay, well, yeah, yeah, I'll direct you to him. You know, I'll get to the guy, right? I mean, I know the guy.

Right. So, yeah, he's not, look, he's going to be on the circuit. He's going to, people are going to want to hear from. He makes a, you know, a very, as my mother would say, he presents well, you know, and he does. He's a good man. He's a good candidate. Does he, and I think he has, as you've said,

he's walked that tightrope in between, not just, the traditional GOP and the Trump base, but also between Democrat and Republican and the numbers, even though style points are differently, his uptick in Republican votes in 2021 was something that I think every Republican candidate is like, gosh, we got to figure out how to do that, which was pull in some people who had traditionally wavered, maybe voted Democrats sometimes, Republican at other time, and I know you've talked about that as well, that it isn't an all or nothing, but, you know, he's been able to walk that tightrope where you can build on the MAGA crowd, as well as those old school 70s and 80s Republicans very well. And I think it's going to do him

well on a national level, especially if he gets to focus on that once his term is done, and all he has to do is go out and say, you know, I will. was the governor of a pretty major state that did pretty well for business, although it seems like CNBC has knocked us down a couple of notches in their latest release. There, maybe we didn't buy enough ads from them for our tourism board. But not that those rankings have anything to do with that, Chris, not at all. But do you think I'm right about that kind of? Yeah, where, you know, he walks that tightrope in between a lot of constituencies very well? Well, he does. I think he's very adroit when it comes to balancing the constituencies of his political party. And let's be honest, all political parties constantly changed. There's, you know, there was very, very limited windows in the history of the Republican Party when it wasn't dramatically changing. You know, and that probably was the nomination and the election of George H.W. Bush in 8892. That was one of the time when like, if you were like the Reagan

Republican, you were going to get reelected. You were going to get elected, right? That was the brain. Well, you know, bring in, you know, an undertow, and I'm not going to do too much history here, but the Pat Buchanan era, and then John McCain challenging George W. Bush, there's always an internal battle and internal dialogue. And in Virginia, Glenn Yonkin was able to balance in a statewide level the dynamics that were changing in the Republican Party. because he was, he was listening to people. And he would, like, when you, when you run for office, you represent, you, you are, you are, you are vying to represent the people with whom you are talking.

Okay. Yeah. And you know, you know, okay, you go, okay, you guys are this and this group is that and this group is that. And to get, to get the votes, I have to tell you what, what you're talking about and represent what you're talking about. And what you're talking about. So he was able to weave a, a tapestry of the current Virginia Republican

Party without alienating persuadable independent voters and persuadable minority voters in the 21 election cycle and have the money to do it and be competitive. It's not easy. It is not an easy formula to create. It doesn't just happen. I mean, Donald Trump did the same thing in 2024 when he had to recreate his brand, comeback from his defeats in the 22 midterm and focus on. early, low-propensity Trump voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina to wrap up the nomination.

Remember, Donald Trump, after the 22 midterms, was the first Republican to announce for president and had 13 13 Republicans run against him, announced to run, including Larry Elder and Doug Berg, thought that they could beat Donald Trump. Okay. That's the condition in which Donald Trump found himself. And I'm doing this as an illustration, not only because Donald Trump adjusted his sales to the changing conditions in the Republican Party just as every candidate has to do. And he went after people who previously had never voted in an election ever and focused them on in Iowa in particular and was able to, you know, show some momentum, show increasing levels of the base and expand the party. So when you look at Glenn Yonkin doing the same thing, he's going to, he's going to look at this.

he's a mechanical engineer by training. He's going to look at this very methodically. He's going to look at the data. He's going to, and that's just the way the man thinks. So good matter and different. That's just how he can, that's how he comes to decisions. And it's very logical and obviously he wants to. And he should consider it because I think he could be a good executive.

Zach Wurl, who I think at the age of 15, was one of the campaign geniuses that unseated the Republican majority leader, Eric, canter. So we reach out to you because there are a few people who understand the ins and outs of campaigning the way you do, especially not just Virginia, but writ large, I think beyond that as well, time in Texas and not that we hold that against you, Zach. But everyone is a buzz because Glenn Youngton's going to talk to the Iowa GOP and then he's going to go talk to the South Carolina GOP, what do you make of this, Johnny? And I say, well, I could make a brooch or a hat or a teradactyl and they stare at me because nobody remembers the movie airplane. But that being said, what do you make of Governor Yonkin, especially given the fact that, I mean, I was told he was

visiting Republican groups as far back as 2016, just sort of a, hey, I'm Glenn Yonkin, get to know me. And then all of a sudden, boom, he's running for governor. And everyone, Everyone who was anyone in the Republican Party knew him, even if the public hadn't really been tuned in to him. Is he taking the same tactic here on a national scale? Get out there now. We've got three years to build a grassroots movement behind me. So I did my homework before the interview. Oh, shame on you.

So I looked up the previous speakers. in the last four, five, six years of these different, I think it's the Iowa GOP dinner and then it's the Silver Elephant Gala in South Carolina. And so what I found is that in the year immediately preceding the nomination, the correlation between running for president seriously and being invited to these things is very high. So, you know, in 2023, the keynote speakers in Iowa were Trump and DeSantis. In 2024, for example, in the Silver Elephant in South Carolina, it was Representative Corey Mills, not to knock him, but, you know, it's representative Corey Mills. But in 2023, at the Silver Elephant, it was Trump. And so if this were 27, I'd say, oh, yeah, he is definitely all in if he hasn't filed his paperwork yet.

And he's one of the top tier contenders for the seat. That said, I do think that you can draw some conclusions from this, and that is that, A, he's trying to maintain a relatively high national profile, because obviously he's term limited out, kind of, because he can run again in four years, but he's term limited out, at least this cycle in Virginia. I think that he would be wise to maintain as much momentum as possible and to keep the opposite. options open. And another thing to think about too with him is, you know, there's a Senate seat. He might be eyeing the Virginia Senate and to beat the Democratic machine that we've got here in our two senators, you need a national profile. You need to draw money from all over the place in order to have a chance to be competitive. And the other thing is often when you're running for president, you're not actually running for president.

You're running for VP or a high-level cabinet position. And so Youngen, you know, I think he's proven to be obviously incredibly politically astute. And so my read of this is he might not have a specific end in mind, but I think that he's doing the right thing by accepting these invites and going and just being present because half of life, let alone politics, is showing up. And so I think what we. can draw from this is there is interest in Yonkin nationally because I guarantee you if I went and beg the Silver Elephant, you know, gala people to make me a speaker, they wouldn't even return my emails, right? So it's like they're probably soliciting these people. And so Yonkin is being solicited nationally. And he's got a number of potential avenues that he can keep open by accepting them.

And so, you know, I wouldn't jump in and say, oh, yeah, he's running for president in 2028. I wouldn't make that leap. But I would say that he is, that is one option that he's keeping open by doing this. And it might not be running for president. Again, it might just be, you know, he's a governor of a key state in the country. And it would be stupid to waste the momentum that he's got behind him. And how do you stay relevant? you keep showing up.

And you've got time, you know, once January of next year comes around, as you mentioned. Zach Whirl on with us, Zach, if you were, though, building out a nationwide campaign, and you were looking at the sitting secretary of state and the sitting vice president, not to mention the specter of the president's son out there, would it not that, behoove you to be there early and often, especially when those folks not necessarily able to because they're out doing the work they're supposed to do. And you're just hoping for another awkward moment in the Oval Office for the vice president or something that hopefully doesn't cost lives, but it might not come out the way the Secretary of State wants it to. Yeah. So I mean, here's the deal.

It's like building political capital, sometimes you have a lot more capital. in your bank account than the position you're holding currently. And so, you know, wise political people, they accumulate capital, but they don't necessarily spend it all at once or, you know, put all their eggs into one basket, so to speak. Fair. And so if I'm looking at this, if I'm looking at 2028, it's like the assumption is that it's going to be Vance. But I wouldn't say that that's guaranteed.

As you mentioned, you know, there's Rubio, there's Trump's son. There are a bunch of other people that could fill that role. And I think J.D. Vance is extremely smart and he's doing a very good job. It's just he's very good at kind of explaining highbrow things in a way that's understandable to the average person. I just don't know that he's got the it factor, you know, look at except for Biden, really, you know, especially since the Internet age, it's someone who has the Pinnash, someone who has that sizzle, Obama, Trump, you know, they're able to draw a lot of attention to themselves and not always in a good way, not always in a bad way, but they've got that it factor. Right.

And so Vance has a very compelling story, and he's obviously very smart and very good at what he's doing. It's just I wouldn't, this early especially, I wouldn't bet on it being Vance. It could be, very well could be. But, you know, we only know him really in the context of the number two spot. And I don't know for sure that he is a natural number one. And if you look at Trump, he's he kind of loathes picking other potential number ones to be around it. He builds a very good supporting cast. But when he gets somebody that that's got that it factor, he tends to not bring them in and give them the spot.

Now, I do think that a lot of Trump's apparatus is probably going to fall behind J.D. Vance, but I don't know how much. And so from that perspective, if I'm analyzing this, if I was advising Yonkin, I'd say, yeah, you need to, you need to be building and collecting all the political capital you can because I'm not convinced it's going to be Vance or any of the people you mentioned. And the best thing for Yonkin to be doing right now, no matter what he wants to do, is to just be calling in as many chips as he can and building that profile. And whether it is president or running for president for some other purpose or building a national profile to run for Senate, it's like this is just, it says this is free money. He's getting these invites all over the country. He's doing the groundwork.

You know, he could, he doesn't need to go back to work after the governor's mansion. He doesn't need to find a job. So he could be just out enjoying life. But he's doing stuff. You know, it's humbling to be invited to such things and to have the opportunity. But at least for me personally, I really don't want to get on an airplane. I really don't want to sleep, you know, in some far-flung corner of the country, you know, all that stuff. So they're, you know, he's, it's indicative that he is.

putting in the work, because it is work, even if it is flattering. And it's going to pay dividends. It's just, I don't know where he's going to put his chips down next. That'll do it for today's show. Don't forget to hit that subscribe button, so you never miss out on new episodes from The Daily Signal. Every weekday, you can catch top news in 10 to keep up with the day's top headlines in just 10 minutes.

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