The Daily Zeitgeist - MJGMB #71: Betting the Upcoming Season with Jamieson Welsh

Episode Date: July 27, 2023

The guys were pleased to be joined by expert sports bettor and NBA analyst Jamieson Welsh on the latest episode. The trio discussed betting the upcoming season, offseason moves and more! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

what's up y'all it's cam jordan from the new orleans saints here to tell you it's going down on season two of my podcast off the edge with me cam jordan catch new episodes every wednesday and i'll have the biggest nfl stars join me to give a player's perspective of the biggest storylines trends and did that really just happen moment from around the league so tap in to off the edge with cam Cam Jordan's podcast, your ultimate playbook for all things football and not football. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, this is Mike Wright from the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. You heard that right. The Fantasy Footballers have officially entered the Dynasty space. Every week, we bring you the same in-depth analysis and entertainment you've come to expect from the fantasy footballers only now it's from the dynasty perspective join me and the rest of the crew every wednesday for a new episode listen to the fantasy footballers dynasty podcast on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone.

This is Jimmy O'Brien from Jamboy Media. I want to quickly tell you about my podcast. It's called Jimmy's Three Things. Episodes come out every Tuesday, and for 30 minutes, I dive into three stories in Major League Baseball that I want to talk about, or I do a stat deep dive. Sometimes I create my own stats. It gets weird. It's now your go-to podcast for staying up to date and in the weeds with major league baseball. No topic is off limits or too small.

Bad umpires, great pitcher catcher duos, new rules, old rules, three things that I want to talk about. Listen to Jimmy's three things on the I heart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You hear that? It's easy to hear us because we're not at NBA con anymore. And that means Summer League has wrapped up and teams are pretty much set, barring any late summer deals.

So let's take a look forward and discuss, you know, some potential betting strategies because Jack and I, we were in Vegas and we were kind of checking out the betting odds and we were wondering, how do we win? And we're going to do that with NBA analyst and expert sports bettor, Jamison Welsh on today's episode. I'm Miles Gray. And I'm Jack O'Brien.

And this is Miles and I got my boobies! Okay! Okay! three on one davis driving spinning fading curry a three-pointer steph curry from downtown again jameson welsh you've provided mb analysis forPN, Fox Sports Radio, and for the past decade, you've been, you know, you're a respected sports better.

You're originally from Southern California, now in Vegas. How are you? And welcome to the show. Man, I'm doing well, fellas. Thanks for the great intro. It's a lot of energy. I love it. Makes me feel like I'm in the room with y'all.

So it's definitely good to hear. But no, man, it's hot. Like, it just got hot in vegas a week before summer league like right when july came it got hot before that like the longest streak of under 100 degree days and now it's extremely hot to where you don't want to do much outside to be inside of a building and right but it's other than the heat we're all good yeah yeah and why is betor spelled that way b-e-t-t-o-r instead of er is it just to prevent it from being like better like even better the real thing that's a great question um i like it it's like playwright where like playwright is so pretentious that they

like spell it like in the weirdest way like w-r-I-G-H-T call yourself Betor O'Rourke Betor O'Rourke Betor like you're a New Zealand prison saying Beto O'Rourke Jameson do you check out any of the Summer League oh yes I have to I mean it's one of the

things that I mean being here since 04 I've literally seen Summer League be in the small gym being a thing that people didn't know about to be a worldwide production like literally espn came in 2017 and changed everything but here's the thing people don't realize it wasn't 2017 when things change it was the wiggins deborah parker showdown game about 10 years ago is when everything changed. That was literally the beginning because they put

that game in the small gym. The fire marshal had to come in and tell people, hey, no more people in. And the press roll was so bad that the electric, the sockets didn't have power in them. That's how bad it was.

It's like a story of an NBA game in the 1950s. socket didn't have power in them. That's how bad it was. That's why... It's like a NBA game in the 1950s when they were playing in dress shoes. Put more coal in the generator. It was so bad that literally people, if they went to the bathroom, they couldn't come back in.

That's how bad it was. But the funniest part of that whole game is people finally got to see Giannis Antetokounmpo, and now he's a generational player, one of the best players of our lifetime and all that, but at the time he was an afterthought. It was Wiggins and Jerari Parker were one and two

and they were supposed to be the future of the league and Giannis was playing in year two before he went to Greece to go play for his national team for the summer. So yeah, very, very fun fact. That's when someone took off.

Everything else from there has been extra, but it's always a great time when people come to Vegas for NBA, a lot of different people, a lot of different connections. It's always a good time. Yeah. Have you ever made a bet based on how someone looked at summer league? Like on,

like, do you do NBA futures like like results like do you do you gamble on who's going to win the title in the offseason i gamble a lot all right so let me just say that yeah i remember at uh for station casinos i go to red rock it's close to where i live so i was a red rock casino they do work. A lot of good people there. I bet a lot. I've been a chairman for over 10 years there. It's one of those things to where if you see something, you kind of

just put it in notated. Let's take note of that when it comes to certain rookies like Donovan Mitchell had a very good summer league in 2017. However, no one was talking about him because of the class he was a part of it. We were talking about Lonzo ball,

Jason Tatum, all those players, but Donovan Mitchell was just killing and he was playing on the jazz and no one's paying attention to the jazz. Like certain things, you just kind of notate and see what's what. Uh, but a lot, a lot of times it's summer league.

You got to take summer league for what it is. Summer league. It favors certain type of players rather than others. So you have to kind of understand that as well. Yeah. yeah like i said i'm an expert gambler um i made one bet on the floor at the casino when we were in vegas uh weeks ago when we were there for summer league because this is coming out in the future um and i put 20 40 i think on the 11 to 1 part of the roulette table. And I thought that meant if the ball lands in numbers 11 to 1. And it actually meant if it did 0 or double 0.

But it hit. And I didn't realize it. I was like, wait. So why is he giving me those chips? That's a lot of chips. And then I took that money and I put $100 of it on the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the title

based on Chet looking good. In the summer league. In the summer league only. So for most people out there, you guys don't understand, this is normally the downtime of the betting world because this falls on all-star break. NBA

is finished. WNBA has their all-star break this week. NFL hasn't started yet. This is normally the time where most professional bettors go on vacation because they don't bet on. But not me. Not that time. Betting on Summer League is very, very

wellness check behavior. If you're betting on Summer League, you might need to send a wellness check just to make sure everything's okay over there. Yeah. Do they even keep score of those games? They do. The money's real. You can put a parlay together. If you win your ticket,

you're good. There's some people who literally bet Summer League. They look at all the numbers and everything, and they bet Summer League. I don't know why they do it, but they do it. it's interesting to say the least so savvy sharp how would you describe what i did there with the okay see that based off to some adventure here's the biggest issue you're gonna have if they decide to pull their good players you're screwed why you're looking at on the surface did they say they come out you know Wednesday or Thursday say oh chat we've seen enough we're good

oh I'm sorry I'm talking about winning the NBA championship this year oh yeah yeah I think this went over your head Jason yeah this is how next level I'm going big baby Jack is playing 4D chess out here you know anything that we don't know like is there a trade that

are they getting Jalen Brown like what's going on is there something that like i'm yeah that's jack tell him what you saw what you just you like what you saw cool two games in the summer league in those two summer league games and if they just let him continue to play against summer league players i think he's going to dominate the league they're getting the chip let me get this straight. Let me make sure. First, I want to thank you for donating to the Clark County.

You keep the parks looking great. You keep the parks looking beautiful. There's construction everywhere. The grass is green because of that bet. We don't have a lot of grass here. There's a lot of rocks. You do have it. I've always been blown away by how green the grass is in some of the parks in las vegas considering how hot it is golf courses yeah might be fake

all good all good yeah yeah so you agree that it was a smart bet we can move on from there um so you you have made some bets on based on summer league, but like, you're probably more over under than like to win the title, right? Like over under wins, over under wins, uh, player awards, um,

just overall growth. Like for instance, when the warriors were like undefeated for like a year and change and summer league, you can kind of see like, Hey, they're building something here. Now I'm not going to say I had 25 to one back to 2014.

I didn't, but, uh, you can they're building something here. Now, I'm not going to say I had 25-1 back in 2014 because I didn't, but you can see them building something. I think that's the key for summer league is if a team is playing guys they drafted and guys that are in rotation, you can see them building towards something. I think that's huge. I think that's key for that particular situation, in my opinion anyway. With that being said, you never want to get school caught up with that because we have seen good summer league teams, and they end up in the lottery the next year.

So you don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but at the same time, it can be a barometer of things to come. Yeah. So, I mean, Wimby, our analysis after the first one was this guy stinks, this guy stinks. This guy's not good at all. I'm out. Yeah.

It looks like he's on ice skates out there. I got egg on my face after that second game, but it turned, yeah, it turns out he's, it looks pretty, pretty good. Um,

so, uh, and then, and then scoot feels like he's just already, he's ready to be a serious player in the league anything else or do you agree with those anything else jumping out at you so I live out

here I was able to see Wimbayana and Scoot play against each other twice back in October so I was able to see them a little it was a little different you know playing in that kind of setting versus this obviously I knew Wimbayana was going to be okay in the second game but the first game is always gonna be jitters it's gonna be what's gonna be uh scoop was gonna have gonna be more comfortable

because his role is different like when we honor something we've never seen before we've never seen a seven five guy move like this right and i think just everything was kind of a a cluster because yeah his teammates and his coaches also haven't seen that. How many people have? Yeah, right. Right. Like seeing a 7-5 guy bring up the ball and run motion off it. Like it's kind of odd that that was going on and

he wasn't like having a problem doing it. But yeah, it was weird. But the second game obviously a lot more comfortable and the numbers suggested. But yeah, the initial reaction was wild because people are like, hey, stay was a lot more comfortable than the numbers suggested. But the initial reaction was wild because people were like, stay in France, he's a buzz. Stay in France?

Stay in France? I love the energy of the Wemby downers. They're like, he should have just stayed, man. No point in even trying out here. Yeah, Jabari Smith Jr. might be in pole position for the tournament MVP if he decides to keep playing. It seems like he wants to keep playing.

Anyone else jumping out to you? Here's the thing. When it comes to summer league, the Lakers young guys are playing really well as a unit. They're really not one out here that's going to win MVP, but they're looking good as a unit. Kassadin's name, the undrafted big looking pretty solid.

J HS is looking good. So there's as a collective, they look pretty solid as a core, even look good in the California summer league as well. There's been hits and misses along the way. Indiana's team looks really good. Like looks like they shouldn't be here. That's always a good sign. Whenever you see a team that has rotation guys in, I'll give you

another example. Charlotte does not look good. They didn't look good in the other summer league either. That's not a great sign going forward. Now, of course, we know the guy that makes everything work there, so it should be better than the regular season, but it's not a good sign when you've got roster guys on a team and you're getting blown out in every league you're in yeah you know we have to take this opportunity because we rarely have laker fans on the the

podcast yeah so you know with miles and jabari they're real you know it is a bias there so which is wisdom wisdom in in terms of the lakers offseason where how are you feeling like i'm hearing living in los angeles hanging out with a couple lakers fans i'm hearing greatest offseason of all time question marks just put out there recent memory not of all time recent memory i felt there is for the lakers or for nba basketball i think both because you want to have your flagship teams you know doing the right things and their acquisitions and their moves have been the right moves like they didn't do anything dumb and trade a bunch of young guys to get a older star player that might be disgruntled somewhere else they didn't do that

they're like hey we had a good run with the roster we had. Came up a little bit short. Let's kind of bring everybody back and, you know, obtain flexibility. Like the one thing I think a lot of teams don't understand is being able to be flexible to make a move or two to make yourself be able to be improved going forward. Once you lock in that third max guy, there's no flexibility and you end up stuck.

And if that big three isn't good enough, then you're not going to win anything and you're just wasting time. When you have a LeBron, James, Anthony Davis team, you don't have any time to waste. LeBron's basically a year-to-year guy now. He's year 21 coming up. You can't be experimenting

at this point in time. They did the right thing in bringing everybody back for the most part while keeping flexibility along the roster. They can make moves. They choose to do at this point in time. So they do the right thing and bringing everybody back for the most part while regaining flexibility, while, you know, keeping flexibility along the roster, they can make moves. They choose to do so in the middle of the season or even next summer,

if they choose to do so. Yeah. How do you feel like you see, you see the moves we've made, you see the people that stayed, we got Reeves on a discount. Yup. How do you now,

how are you looking at 23, 24 now? Are you feeling. It's them in Denver and Phoenix are like the top three out West, and it's everybody else, in my opinion. Those are the three teams that look at the roster, look at the situation. Those are the three. You've got to give Denver their credit.

They are the champs. They're bringing pretty much everyone back except Bruce Brown, so you've got to give them their credit. But what Lakers have done this summer is huge because the continuity is huge. That's key. What they did in a short amount of time last year should be commended.

But now you're bringing everybody back. Everyone should be more cohesive as a unit. They're in good shape. And they got deeper. I'm really big on Cam Reddish. I know he's had his issues. I know basketball Twitter goes 50-50 with him. But with that being said, I think a guy like

that with Phil being the player development guy, Phil Haney being the player development guy, there's something there that I believe that could be untapped. Yeah, that's some deep analysis. I did not know the name of the Lakers player development guy.

Phil Haney? Phil Haney? For me guess it's i guess like yeah just like for me it's like everything on the lake i'm like that's all we talk about sometimes yeah um what's his what's his instagram handle mr 94 feet oh is that what it is yeah yeah okay yeah there's like all of his like handles have to do with uh yeah you know shooting prowess and things like that but anyway he can shoot anywhere on the 94 feet on the, on the court.

Is that what's implied there? Or just that you got to bring it all, all 94 feet. Hey, it's up to you. Yeah. It's up to you. Yeah.

You got to bring it. They all count. They all count all 94 of them. All right. Well, let's take a quick break and we'll be right back to dig in a little listen to my new podcast, NFL Daily with Greg Rosenthal. Five days a week, you'll get all the latest news, previews, recaps,

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You know what's going to happen. Can't stop it. That's right. Catch new episodes every Wednesday all season long. That's what you look for in year 14 to do more. No days off. And I'll have my friends who happen to be some of the NFL's biggest stars join me on the pod. We'll give you a player's perspective of the biggest storylines, trends,

and did that really just happen moments from around the league. And you know we'll have fun doing it. Oh, and I'll have a special guest each month join me to mix it up a little bit. Who is it? None other than... Psych! You'll have to tune in to find out. So tap in to Off the Edge with Cam Jordan's podcast, your ultimate playbook for all things football

and not football. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Mike Wright from the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. You heard that right. The Fantasy Footballers have officially entered the Dynasty space.

Every week we bring you the same in-depth analysis and entertainment you've come to expect from the Fantasy Footballers, only now from a Dynasty perspective. Maybe you've been living in the Dynasty Fantasy Football space for a while. Well, we're here to take your game to the next level. Maybe you love fantasy football and you've been feeling that itch to jump into the Dynasty format, but it feels a little bit intimidating. No matter where you're coming from, the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast has something for you, and you're going to have a great time listening, I promise.

Join me and the rest of the crew every Wednesday for a new episode. Listen to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back. Yeah. So, I mean, are you already looking at the upcoming season you got any like interesting props for us anything is it foolish to even think about this right now so here's the thing first of all there's no days off in gambling there's no days off like you know get value out

there yeah like you go because here's the thing too you can get a good prop early like you can find something at the casinos and the oddsmakers are sleeping on. For instance, last year, Mike Brown, the win coach of the year, was like 101. Wow. You know what I mean? To start around this time last year, like 101. So those are things you kind of want to look at and say, hey, look at the roster, look at the situation, look at the other teams in that division or conference. Say, hmm, i can see this

happening not just a random bet but like hey there's at least a pathway to it like that's the that's the one rule i have when it comes to betting futures or props is there a legit pathway for it without a miracle happening and if you see it then yeah let it fly um with that being said vegas doesn't have the props that fanDuel, DraftKings, the offshore accounts have. Hopefully in the future we do, but we don't have the same luxury that people around the country have when it gets to being the panel parlay, who wins MVP, even the player of the year.

We can't parlay that. It's only a single bet. So it's not the same as others, but it's still cool. You still can make a little bit of money, but you can't make that huge bag It's only a single bet. So it's not the same as others, but it's still cool. You still can make a little bit of money, but you can't make that huge bag off of a couple of predictions. Yeah. 100 to 1 is plus 10,000. Because that's what we're...

I have a hard time with that stuff. It's basically for every $1 you bet, you win $100 in that case. And then plus 10,000 is... So Jabari was telling me that like the professional you know the odds makers and the casinos want everybody using the like plus minus one because those are big numbers and i i look at those and i the actual literal dollar signs appear in my eyes you're like oh 50 000000. My tongue unrolls in my mouth. I just wanted to point out that Mike Brown, those odds are the same as

Oklahoma City Thunder to win the title this year. Maybe we're speaking too soon about that bet. I hope you win, though. I don't hit on anyone's bet. I hope if it comes through, i'll be happy for you yeah oh well i'm really curious right so like we were looking at the odds right in pre-season of last season and the nuggets were down at around plus 2000 plus

1800 correct and we and we saw where that went. Can you help me understand? Because like over the course of the season, every person who like writes about Denver, a lot of people are like, they have to be, we're saying they had to be part of the conversation and weren't. Like what's affecting all this where, you know, some people who are like writing about the game are like, keep your eye on that team, but it's not really borne out in the odds. Yeah, man. Like, writing about the game or like keep your eye on that team but it's not really borne out in the odds yeah man like i feel like i would have totally taken that bet like especially knowing what i know now you know it's like if i had a time machine time machine i totally would have taken or some kind of book that had all of the results from future sporting events at my disposal

but truly that does feel like great value like knowing what we knew about denver right like what happened so you took that bet no i wish i did i wish i actually the funny part is i advised everyone in vegas to that the nuggets are gonna be in the finals they're gonna play milwaukee that was my prediction but unfortunately i did not place a bet on at least they were giving out the west i didn't i didn't do that unfortunately but so i'm gonna come out bet on at least they were getting out the West. I didn't, I didn't do that, unfortunately, but so going to come out the West. So, so what were you,

what, what factored into your analysis to, to, to make that prediction? So I looked at the West as a whole, everyone else had, they had the least amount of issues in my eyes. Like Yoko just Yoko.

It's like, he's, he plays all the time. He doesn't get hurt. You know what you're getting from him. You're at least winning 45 games. Just for him alone. You're getting least winning 45 games just for him alone. You're getting Jamal Murray back.

I was always high on Jamal Murray, so I always thought, hey, they're getting basically an all-star type of guy back. So what 45 games guarantees you? They're going to be good. I thought the rest of the West had a lot of questions. I thought the Clippers had questions. The Warriors were going to have questions because they're an older team coming off a long season. And obviously, we saw them wear it down as the season went on.. The Warriors were going to have questions because they're an older team coming off a long season.

And obviously, we saw them wear down as the season went on. The Lakers were going to have issues because they're two best guys to hurt a lot. Just everyone in the West had a lot of issues. I never really trusted Memphis. Phoenix, you know, obviously this was before they traded for KD. The way they went out last year, you knew they were never going to be back as a whole again. You knew that was over.

That room was never going to be the same. everyone out west had a lot of issues and i felt like denver had the least amount of issues so that was the process behind it and also like i felt yokich was the best player in the conference so him with a healthy squad take your chances yeah that sounds very reasonable the odds heading into last season celdics plus 500 the favorite golden state and i mean they were in the finals together the previous season so that makes sense milwaukee brooklyn clippers which makes sense uh phoenix suns 76ers miami heat but they like so the Heat were favored over them, over the Nuggets. And then you get to Denver. And then Denver was on the same footing

with the Lakers, and pretty close to, like, the Grizzlies and the Mavericks. Right. Right. Which is... Yeah. That's pretty wild. That's... But also, no one talked about the Nuggets. No one in the mainstream media talked about the Nuggets. Everything was the mainstream media talked about the Nuggets

everything was about the Glamour teams or the Glamour players and Jokic before this season people really didn't talk about he doesn't do much in offseason he goes home like there's no TMZ of Jokic like he's not out clubbing like he's not out there fighting people in the streets like he literally goes home and

rides horses and swims gets towed around by horses. There you go. The only thing, I saw a clip of him on a kayaking trip was the most I've seen in the offseason so far. And people were like mobbing him on a river. He seems to be pretty

focused in the offseason. Is there any team heading into this season you feel like is similarly flying under the radar? So if, this is a very big if. We'd like that. If Zion gets his stuff together, New Orleans. That would be the one where it's like, hey, if he stays healthy and Brandon Ingram stays healthy with the supporting cast that they have, they could be the team that can surprise people and make a run.

That would be the, cause they have a lot of talent. It just, it never, you know, really clicks. Like that's the issue that I do have good shooting. They do have some guys that can make plays like Herb Jones,

the very good defender. With that being said, though, it's just hard to believe in Zion staying healthy. It's hard believing in Brandon Ingram staying healthy for a long period of time. And it's not that they both get hurt. They both get hurt and miss like six weeks.

It's not like they miss a few days. They're out for multiple pay periods. And if you're out for multiple pay periods, it's not going to end well for you. So that's my only concern. But if I had to put a long shot, it would be the Pelicans. Yeah, that's interesting. When we went into the sports

book, because I didn't know what you were talking about, the thing about how they weren't taking bets on, like, props on, like, who would win each thing. My intention was to bet on Zion for most improved because he's, like, way down there. Like, not even in

the conversation, but, like, if he just stays healthy and does what we know he can do and is, like, you know, in the conversation, like, he just stays healthy and does what we know he can do and is like you know in the conversation like top five mvp conversation like like ja a couple years back or last year when he was suddenly like so good and like kind of what what people thought he could be and he was like up there near the mvp conversation i feel like that could happen for Zion if he just stays healthy. Obviously, big if, but that feels like there's some value

there because I think some of the off-court stories have maybe deflated his value a little bit. Oh, absolutely. And also, Zion's been an all-star at times already, so I don't know if he can win most and prove. I don't know if he would get voted for.

It doesn't quite make, uh, it doesn't make sense. And it says, I don't see him winning that one. Uh, I don't know if they would give him that based off his resume. Yeah.

Like I said, uh, it was a smart bet that I was thinking of making. Jack's driving back to Vegas. He's like, can I, can I switch this one? can i i'd like to get a return where's the returns window yeah come back player they have come back player

i think you're good though right so i mean who and again like when you're looking at individual futures and things like that what what's sort of like the analysis that you take for example like with most improved right now obviously jack had a genius sort of 4D chess idea with Zion. If you had to go more traditional, how are you looking at it? So it's really about opportunity and also contract situation. So are you going to be playing a lot of minutes? What's your contract look like? Are you playing for a contract?

Are you in a contract year? There's a lot of different things i look into it so for instance uh in this situation a guy that's super talented but his you know plays on a team that does weird things with young players don't think come on good he's like 55 to 1 right now on draft kings and he's for most improved we know he's talented he's shown flashes but this they're actually going to have to play him. Like, they're going to have to play him no matter what. The way the roster is, the way the size is lined up, they're going to have to play him.

I do believe that even though Chris Paul's a little older in the tooth, having a guy like that, being able to spoon-feed him certain assists and get him going early and often, I think that will help. But I just think that him playing, getting guaranteed 25 minutes a night will help out a lot because they're an older team. They need young athletic legs. We saw that in the playoffs. Sacramento literally ran them off the court at times.

So Jonathan Kamonga, 55-1, I think was a very good play for those out there looking for a long shot type of action. Interesting. Okay, so I think I messed up my bets really bad. for those out there looking for a long shot type of type of action. Interesting. Okay. So I may, I think I messed up my bets real bad. I was looking at whether like the warriors have really long odds for,

because that, that feels like a thing where people might be off, off the scent a little bit because of what the Lakers did to them. But I think the Chris Paul signing was too splashy in there, you know, in the top 10 NBA championship odds. So, mean looking back at the one thing that like like we were looking at the biggest preseason underdogs to win the title and it's pretty interesting there's some teams on there that I wouldn't have expected like the 0708 Celtics were 10 to 1 underdogs their win loss over under was 49.5.

This was the first year of the big three. I don't know if people, if maybe this was, was before, but like that, that trade happened before the season. So it's not like, but,

but they, they ended up going 66 and 16. And despite some like, you know, seven round series in the earlier rounds, they should have been the favorite, like based on what the team looked like together. Got a couple of Spurs teams in there.

Houston rockets, uh, when they first won it, um, Pistons, the Raptors before when, when they had Kawhi were big underdogs, the Mavericks,

the year that they won. Obviously, I think they were big underdogs heading into the playoffs, but, the 2014, 2015 golden I think they were big underdogs heading into the playoffs. But the 2014-2015 Golden State Warriors were the biggest underdog in NBA history, preseason underdog, because there's some of it that was just like, you can't win shooting threes. You can't win a title shooting threes. You need to be able to bully ball in there. But also, they were just a team that we had seen not be able to do it a

couple of times. But the reason they couldn't do it is they were, they were young and they just, you know, they hadn't put it together, but that's instructive to me. I guess the nuggets from this past season would have been the third or fourth.

They would have been right with the Raptors in terms of long shot odds, biggest long shots to win the title. And that one feels crazy to me. That one feels like we should have known heading into this season, but that might just be recency bias. It's tough because like we don't, well, it's something I say we,

but the national media doesn't cover the nuggets like that. If the nuggets played in a bigger city, then yeah, it would, the odds would not have been that high and there would have been a lot more attention on them. But the Nuggets play in the Mountain Time Zone. Unfortunately, nobody cares about the Mountain Time Zone.

It sucks. It's unfortunate, but it goes Eastern Time Zone, Central, and then from the Mountain Time Zone, everybody's either watching games or getting ready for the West Coast games. No one cares for that. Denver, Utah, you know, stretch again. It sucks. It really does.

But people are getting ready for the Lakers, Warriors, you know, stretch again. Like it's unfortunate. It sucks. It really does. But people are getting ready for the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers, Suns that when they're on the right time zone to start, the mountain time zone just gets looked over. And it's just what it is, unfortunately. So, I mean, like, it's just interesting that like, because of just sort of those factors that suddenly the odds can be favorable because just purely all of the attention is going the other way. So in a way,'m like it just it

seems like something worth noting in that sense that oh sometimes those odds are better purely because that all of our attention just goes on like these major markets on the coasts oh absolutely and it goes the other way around too you're not going to see favorable acre lines for anything because right they don't want to take a loss. They don't want to have good odds on the Lakers for a better because if that hits, it's a bad day for a casino. Casinos are a business as well. They have to make smart decisions. You're not going to see favorable odds on Laker futures when they have a good

team or Knicks futures when they have a good team. It's not because the amount of people who would bet it, and if it does hit, it becomes rough i live in vegas so the gold knights won the title this year the casino's not hurt by that that's just how it goes yeah right right yeah like betting markets are a lot closer to the stock market than i realized in the sense that like the people placing the bets really end up setting the odds like obviously the bookmakers start, like put, put the starting point where it is,

but then it goes up and down based on like how much money is being wagered so that they, you know, even it out so that it's as close as possible. But I was always, you know, one of those people who was like, man,

you look at like the over under and the line and you know, it's so often it's like within a half a point and you're like how are these guys so smart and it's like well it's actually like the wisdom of the crowds like we're driving driving that and just you know yeah it's pretty interesting so anything to keep an eye on because again i'm like i'm sentimental part of me like i don't like to bet on the lakers because that's my team and every time I've done so in the past, it's blown up in my face. And again, to your point about the odds,

who's someone that you feel is kind of in that sort of sweet spot in terms of not quite getting enough attention, but at the same time, the odds are slightly favorable from a better perspective? Just in general, or team-wise, in terms of winning like a team wise like in terms of

winning it all yeah like in terms of winning it all because i'm just looking at all these odds and like every time i'm just doing math i'm like okay how much could i make off that obviously not the best motivation when placing a bet but i'm just by using that sort of logic and not getting my own sentimental attachment involved objectively what like do you see anything here where there's like a combination of the odds being good and a lack of national attention or maybe lack of mainstream media narrative that makes it an attractive bet? The odds aren't great, but with that being said, if Miami gets Dame, they got action. They're at 9-1. If they do get Dame, they have three all-star type of players and they've been close already.

Like they've been close twice. Like, you know, they've had their moments and two final series. Um, if they get another all-star and they're able to tweak the roster, like we know how they do, they have a good shot as anybody like that.

Trey finally goes through sometime this summer. Um, I would say Miami at nine-1 is probably the best bet because we know how they are out east. You're adding another guy that can create and shoot from long distance and open up the floor for the other guys. That would be the team I would feel comfortable

in taking a shot with. I don't trust Philly. Don't trust the Clippers. What's wrong? Why do you trust Philly? Man. Steady rock in the playoffs.

You can trust them to go out in the second round every year. Do they take odds on that? Has there ever been worse odds? I feel like you could win $5 on a $1,000 bet if you bet Philly going out in the

second round. Right. That is true. It's actually true though like but you can bet it on before the series starts so they're playing somebody and they're favored and you feel that they're not going to win then yeah you can make some money yeah the other team i took is the phoenix suns i did not take it because i thought there's good value there i took it because i am interested in them i root for frank vogel and i root for kd always um and so gives me extra incentive to kind of be be watching them but i feel like there's probably bad value on that one because they've gotten so much media

attention right it's not that bad like it's six and a half to one pretty good money like if you can make 650 off 100 bucks you're doing pretty good like that's not bad uh it's just more of you think about the play itself you think about can all the guys stay healthy and can they can that roster get a little bit better between now and april like those are two things that you kind of think about because right now the roster you got three guys that are really high paid and a bunch of minimum guys. And I don't know if that works in 2023, but they can tweak the stuff. If they can tweak the rosters a little bit more, they may have a shot because they played Denver the toughest.

Like they gave Denver the toughest run out of anybody in the postseason. So if they're that close, who knows? And that's not a bad bet i actually like that bet i think that's my thing is the health is the biggest issue that means so much you've made my day um and then in terms of player props like uh award props rookie of the year one is minus 200 meaning you have to bet 200 to hundred. Like he's nailed on favorite scoot plus three 50. You bet a hundred, you win three 50 chat.

Uh, you went, you bet a hundred, you went 500. I like the chat money. I think he looks like he's ready to do some things and in a good situation, but I feel like it's going to be scoot or wimpy yama it's probably going to be wimpy as long as he stays healthy and plays enough games it's going to be him however if he does not win it it probably goes to scoop because in portland he's going to be the guy they give the ball to right away and for the game he plays and yeah people like to see he's going to put up more stuff.

Now, Shet may have a good season, but the highlights and the production and the usage are all going to favor Scoot, unfortunately, when it comes to the awards, and Scoot would probably win it if Wimby doesn't. So I put $3,000 down on Grady Dick winning

this year. Again, we appreciate the donation and the contribution to the Catholic Park. Just think, though. See that guy's neck, man? His vision on the court? Just the straight neck prowess

and the sequins suit. I don't know. Now that I'm hearing the way a professional talks about it, maybe I have made a mistake. That was a lot of money like you could have spread that around like look see and i'm still learning i'm still learning james i feel it i understand uh yeah hey can i stay with you man when i'm in town because i might i might need a place to just kind of lay low you might yeah you may you know you may have a night

you may get a night here's another harebrained long odds bet that i kind of really like defensive player of the year if wimpy yama is your rookie of the year as you say he is um he is gonna block so many shots like if he's blocking three to four shots a game like won't he be in the conversation for defensive player of the year? I'll do you one better. If he does all that and the numbers back it up, and the Spurs are holding teams 103 points a game or something like that,

he will be in the conversation for the award, if not winning it. Getting 35 to 1 on that, that's worth the flyer. Thank you. Woo! I got one.

I got one. You make that bet and just make it and whatever happens, happens because you know there's a pathway because here's the thing. We all know how these things go. Once momentum starts,

you can't really stop it. If you block like five shots a game and changing another five, that's going to get talked about every day while the season's going on. Can't really stop it. Yeah. Like five shots a game and changing another five. That's going to get talked about every day while the season's going on. And the Spurs are going to be better. I'm not sure they're going to be a playoff. I'm not like that,

but they're going to be at least better than that. Going to be a walk over that. That play has action. I'd rather, here's the thing. I'd rather bet, bet that at 35 to one, then bet go bear Anthony Davis at their odds.

Just because if you're going to put a futures bet on something, make it worthwhile. Make it worth it. If you hit it, make it worth like, hey, I just came up $3,500. That's where I'm at with it. That's where I'm at with Grady Dick, man. Exactly. You stole it right out of my mouth, man.

Exactly. You got to make it worth it. Got to make it worth it. There you go. But he does, even in his quote-unquote bad game, but he does like even in his quote unquote bad game like he just changes every like just anything anyone's doing on offense

when he when he's on defense like the the shots and maybe this was he was playing Charlotte in that game so maybe they're just like shooting with their eyes closed or something and that's why I was open like I saw James Boatnight shoot with all eyes open and it was not good

you know it was not good. You know, it was Brandon Miller as well has been rough this summer. They were shooting with all eyes open. It's just what it was. But the one thing that did stand out is they did not attempt to go to the basket. No. That was the thing. So it was like, oh, so Wimmy's having a bad game,

but he's shutting everything down defensively. So it's not really a bad game. He's just struggling offensively. That's where I was like, oh, he's the player of the year, has action, because I bet you what, by the time the season starts, that number will be close to 20-1, if not lower.

It will not be at 35-1 come late October. Yeah. And he, you know, like, I feel like he will get dunked on quite a few times. Yes, it'll happen. The thing that, like,

drives this a lot of the time is, like, the analytics and, you know, defensive analytics and like what people are shooting with him on the court or with him in the, in their region when they're, when they're taking a shot. And like,

that feels like it's going to be a problem for, uh, other, for anybody going up against him. So I love it. Love that bet. I am a professional bet or y'all have heard it um and i'm better or orc better or call me better or please uh if if somebody at the casino can help me get a refund

for this because i'm confident in it that's that's the only thing all right let's take a quick break and we're going to be right back to close this out with the rapid fire round of questioning after this. Wake up with football every morning and listen to my new podcast, NFL Daily with Greg Rosenthal. Five days a week, you'll get all the latest news, previews, recaps, and analysis delivered straight to your podcast feed

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Listen now on the iHeartRadio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast all right here we go it's Cam Jordan from New Orleans Saints here to tell you it's going down on season two of my podcast off the edge with me Cam Jordan can't stop it you know what's gonna happen can't stop it that That's right. Catch new episodes every Wednesday, all season long. That's what you look for in year 14, to do more. No days off. And I'll have my friends, who happen to be some of the NFL's biggest stars, join me on the pod. We'll give you a player's perspective of the biggest storylines, trends, and did that really just happen moments from around the league.

And you know we'll have fun doing it. Ha! Yeah! and did that really just happen moments from around the league. And you know we'll have fun doing it. Ha! Yeah! Oh, and I'll have a special guest each month join me to mix it up a little bit. Who is it? None other than... Psyche! You'll have to tune in to find out. So tap in to Off the Edge with Cam Jordan's podcast,

your ultimate playbook for all things football and not football. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Mike Wright from the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. You heard that right. The Fantasy Footballers have officially entered the Dynasty space. Every week we bring you the same in-depth analysis and entertainment you've come to expect from the Fantasy Footballers, only now from a dynasty perspective maybe you've been living in the dynasty fantasy football space for a while well we're here to take your game to the next level maybe you love fantasy football

and you've been feeling that itch to jump into the dynasty format but it feels a little bit intimidating no matter where you're coming from, the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast has something for you, and you're going to have a great time listening, I promise. Join me and the rest of the crew every Wednesday for a new episode. Listen to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. or wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back. And guess what, Jameson? You have wandered into the fastest question and answer segment in all podcasting history, okay?

It's called the Rat Defiant Rally. Oh, yeah. Now, what we're going to do, we're going to ask you a question. Just give us the answer that first pops into your mind just send it right back don't expand don't give us a bunch of explanations you know what i mean and if we start rambling on you better stop us okay you know because this is on you to help out right now i got you okay i like that if you're in so are we jack i don't think shooting alley is a phrase i thought it was like well you know when they're talking about in like an action movie you're like going into a place where

everyone's like gonna be able to shoot at you from both sides what's that you said shooting alley shooting a bottleneck nah that's not it anyways uh you know tune in three months from now when i when i think of it um all right crossfire is what isari said. Anyway, let's get into it. Brian, start the clock. I know it is called the kill zone. There's another thing that people say if you wander. That's from like World War I trench warfare. You know what I mean?

It's a really good term. Anyway, see, and Jameson, that is an example of where you can come in and be like, hey, let's get on with this. Because now we're ranting about World War I trench warfare. Shooting gallery, isn't it, but... Okay, Corral, Jabari's asking? No, no, no, no. It's a different phrase. You've walked into the...

You've wandered into a... Bad situation. Jabari said, no, that's it. Sorry, that is what you're thinking of. I know what a shooting gallery is. But anyway, you going first or am I going first? You can go first. All right.

Jameson, we're talking about teams we want to cover in the offseason. Obviously going to talk about Spurs, the Spurs, but also we want to figure out who else we want to add to this list or remove from this list. We got Spurs, we got OKC, Magic, Suns, Blazers, Mavericks. What are you doing to that? Are you adding or taking off from that list? We had Spurs. We got OKC, Magic, Suns, Blazers, Mavericks.

What are you doing to that? Are you adding or taking off from that list? We had Rockets. We removed them. We removed Rockets, yeah. So I think the Rockets should be added. Oh, wow. They got a lot of stuff.

There's a lot of characters, a lot of players, a lot of just storylines. I think you're not going to have a dull moment there. They may not be good, but you have a lot of characters, a lot of players, a lot of just storylines. Like, I think you're not going to have a dull moment there. They may not be good, but you have a lot of things going on. And you have a coach that is a pretty good coach that is there for a reason that he, you know, lost his job at other places for a reason. I think there's a lot to cover there. So you would never have a dull moment. I think Dallas would be the team I'd kind of like, you know, a race.

Because I don't think Dallas is going to be... Thank you. I was waiting for someone to say that. Different reasons. Or they can kind of go away too. They just paid Jeremy Grant a bunch of money so I would go away from it too. I got a pitch for a new team. The Pacers.

Yes. I feel like the Pacers are interesting. Very. However, I got to healthy but yes I'm with that yeah alright so we've got a updated list and we are in the offseason so it would be about the time that we'd start covering these teams if we

were men of our word yes but we would have to be men of our word yeah which TBD. No one's ever accused us of this. Being men of our word? Yes. If you could have any player's skill set for a day,

it can be on the court, off the court, who are you choosing and what skill set is it? Kevin Durant and his Twitter personality. He doesn't care. He doesn't personality. He doesn't care. He doesn't care. He doesn't care who you are. He'd be the guy. KD would be the guy.

Okay. Okay. Okay. Who? Okay. Ultimate peak. Who is the ultimate peak in their prime? Is it prime Shaq?

Prime Wilt? Prime Kareem? 2000 Shaq is the scariest player I've ever seen. I'm 37, so that was the scariest. We've never seen anything like that. 99-2000? Yeah, there's nothing you can do

about that. Shaq's the only guy where his flaw didn't matter. His flaw didn't matter. Everyone else's flaw end up hurting them one, one way or another in their pre-prime. He's the only guy where their flaw did. It didn't matter.

They still repeat it with the flaw yet. Right. Um, man, I really want to watch more old school Kareem. Cause he kind of had Wemby like stature and build. And like when watching Wempy has made me interested in old school kareem yes um if he if he could develop like a skyhook type situation we'd all be in

trouble the show would be in trouble because nobody everyone would just be like oh the league's over um yeah i think it gets worse i think when we develop the three i think it gets way worse for everyone i mean it's already it's already there in some games. Yeah, and Jameson, we got to keep this going, man. I'm sorry. You got baited in right there. You had to step up, man. I'm sorry, B-Rail.

We got to keep this going. We got to keep this going. Yeah, yeah. Jack? Oh, is it me? Yeah. Okay. Yeah, yeah, that's right.

You can take two players from all of history to create your Mad Boosties edition NBA Jam team. Which two players are you taking? You know what? Give me Barkley and give me Magic. Yeah, Magic would be good. Okay. Yeah, I see that. Now, what is it about Magic, Johnson?

I mean, he's the best point guard ever and you didn't need to play a certain way with him. He can play the way you wanted to play. If you want to slow down, slow down. If you want to run, you can run. He made everyone better and he's the guy that he can literally work with anyone. Whatever roster you give him,

he would make it work. It wasn't, oh, I need shooters or, oh, we can only play this way or, hey, we need a stretch five. No, whatever he had had he went with and that would be the way so i was like barkley just because the barkley is unique and barkley doesn't get the credit like there's a generation of people only know barkley from tnt and half watching nba games instead of being uh a dominant player so right just do chuck in to give him some love rather than the guy who played godzilla yeah yeah one v one space jam like yeah yeah i remember that yeah i'm going So just do Chuckie to give him some love. Rather than the guy who played Godzilla. Yeah, yeah, yeah. One V one.

Yeah, yeah, I remember that. I'm going Steph Jack, by the way. This is a new question, I think, for this. I'm going Steph Jack, by the way. Oh, okay. Interesting. Yeah, no, actually, I like that. I like that.

Can you please rank the following Yardbird spots? Lolo's, Gus's, and Roscoe's? Wow, that's a and Roscoe's? Wow. That's a good question. Yardbird has the best chicken and waffles I've ever had. I've had all three of the places you're talking about.

Yardbird's one, Roscoe's is two, you know it fell off, and Gus's is three. Lolo's not in the mix, huh? Sorry, I apologize. Lolo's is good. It, huh? Lolo's, sorry. I apologize. Lolo's is good. So it depends on which Lolo's you go to. The ones in Phoenix are way better than the ones in Vegas and other cities

because they originated in Phoenix. So Lolo's in Phoenix is right there at Roscoe's. But the one out here, it's okay, but it's not the same. Quite not the same. Yeah. All right. And finally, the ultimate question. Jack or Miles?

Ty. Okay. Push? So we're talking about betting. Push. Miles is reminding you by... Wow, wow. Okay, so what about my greedy dick bet? That doesn't

move the needle at all? I just made you money with that Wemby Yamaha thing, by the way. Yeah, yeah. Wemby Yamaha defensive player of the year. Yeah, yeah, okay. So it's a push. The line will move, by the way, but yes. No, it's a push.

Okay, dealer showing 21 and we got 21. Okay. You get your money back. If you push on the bet, you get your money back. So it'd be a push. Okay. I'll work with that because I definitely made some terrible bets in my life. But Jamison Welsh, thank

you so much for joining us on Miles and Jack. Where can people bask in your wisdom and knowledge online? At Twitter, at the Jamison. I think we'll still have Twitter by the time this show lands, hopefully. Might be threads. I think the threads is the same thing. I think

I have to remember. But yeah, Twitter's always good. if you're in vegas i'm usually at red rock or other casinos around town so yeah definitely uh don't be shy and say hi there you go damn that's cool you can just be like come to this casino i'm usually there right we have the plaza hotel lastly if you're betting make sure you get some sort of reward for your betting. Make sure you get some sort of comp or perks for you

betting your own money, whether it's hotels, whether it's free meals, whether it's trip, whatever, whatever it is, your betting makes you get some sort of benefit

from it. How do you do that? We didn't do that. We didn't have you back on. Got to get your players part of that. There we go.

Exactly. All right. Well, yeah, make sure you follow us on Twitter. Follow us on hashtag MadBoosties, B-O-O-S-T-I-E-S. You can follow me at MilesOfGrey on Twitter and Twitter and all that. I'm at Jack underscore O'Brien.

Yeah, there it is. And, yeah, just check out all the links and stuff for show links, updates, et cetera. That's going to do it for this week, and we're going to be right back at it on the next one. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. What's up, y'all?

It's Cam Jordan from the New Orleans Saints here to tell you it's going down. On season two of my podcast, Off the Edge with me, Cam Jordan. Catch new episodes every Wednesday, and I'll have the biggest NFL stars join me to give a player's perspective of the biggest storylines, trends, and did that really just happen moment from around the league. So tap in to Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast, your ultimate playbook for all things football and not football. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, everyone. Jake Storielli here from John Boy Media. I want to tell you about my podcast, Wake and Jake. I've been a sports nut my whole life, and there's nothing I love more than talking about it. If you're a sports fan, Wake and Jake is the place for you. Covering all the hot topics from the sports world, a lot of baseball, a lot of postseason coverage,

mock drafts, awards, guest interviews, all of it. New episodes every Monday and Wednesday. Come watch along on the Wake and Jake YouTube channel or listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Mike Wright from the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. You heard that right.

The Fantasy Footballers have officially entered the Dynasty space. Every week, we bring you the same in-depth analysis and entertainment you've come to expect from the Fantasy Footballers, only now it's from the Dynasty perspective. Join me and the rest of the crew every Wednesday for a new episode. Listen to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.