The Daily - A Delicate Compromise in the Capitol

Episode Date: October 29, 2021

President Biden and Democratic leaders say they have an agreement on a historic social spending bill that they have spent months negotiating. But liberals in Congress demanded assurances that the package would survive before they would agree to an immediate vote on a separate $1 trillion infrastructure bill. Today, we explore why compromise remains a work in progress.Guest: Emily Cochrane, a correspondent based in Washington.Love listening to New York Times podcasts? Help us test a new audio product in beta and give us your thoughts to shape what it becomes. Visit nytimes.com/audio to join the beta.Sign up here to get The Daily in your inbox each morning. And for an exclusive look at how the biggest stories on our show come together, subscribe to our newsletter. Background reading: Congressional Democrats’ decision to delay a vote on the infrastructure bill left Mr. Biden empty-handed as he departed for Europe, where he had hoped to point to progress on both measures as proof that American democracy still works.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. This is The Daily. Today, President Biden and Democratic leaders say they have an agreement on a historic social spending bill that they've spent months negotiating. But as my colleague Emily Cochran explains, it remains a work in progress. It's Friday, October 29th.

Emily, on Tuesday, our colleague Jonathan Weissman told us about Democrats' huge social spending bill. It was the biggest bill since the 1960s, and it had been scaled way back. And we know that process left progressives and moderates really kind of at loggerheads. So catch us up on what's happened between then and now when we're recording with you Thursday afternoon. So since Tuesday, there's been a lot of back and forth about many different aspects of the bill. On the one hand, Democrats are coalescing around parts where this agreement, home care, child tax credit, climate provisions. But then there's also some tough conversations about things that should either be completely changed or dropped out altogether. Let's start with taxes, for example.

You know, one of the big things about this package is a promise to moderates that this would be fully paid for. But one senator, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, had some serious concerns with one of the key ways of paying for it, raising the corporate and individual tax rates. So Democrats turned to this idea of a billionaire's tax. And there was all sorts of discussions of how you structure that, what that could look like. And then another senator, Joe Manchin, said he had concerns about that. So that was out and they looked for other alternatives. Then on the spending side, Democrats are really confronting this idea of how do you whittle down an initial $3.5 trillion package? What gets left out? For example, Bernie Sanders has been a big advocate of expanding Medicare

to cover hearing, vision, and dental. Well, now it looks like the benefit will just cover hearing. Why is that? Because of the price and because of concerns about having a program that's far too generous and just the basic math that needed to be done to keep this below a certain price tag. So there was a trade-off there, you're saying? Yes. And that is essentially what has driven a lot of the talk so far, and it continues to do so as we speak. What do you keep? What do you whittle down? And what do you just drop altogether? Either because there are policy concerns, maybe just from one person that could jeopardize final passage of this bill,

or it's a cost issue. How do you keep these programs within this price tag below $2 trillion? And a big one Wednesday was when we got word that a paid family and medical leave, a huge priority for a lot of Democrats in both chambers, appeared to likely fall out altogether. Wow. So it sounds like they are making progress, but it's really slow because there are a lot of these really hard decisions. Yes. I mean, and for Democrats who are in control of the White House, the Senate, and the House, this is seen as a real opportunity, potentially the best and last opportunity for the foreseeable future to deliver on so many things that they have promised on the campaign trail for years, that they feel delivered them this majority. How do you pick

is what they've been grappling with. Right. And the stakes are really high. I mean, this is their shot. Exactly. This is a legacy moment for so many people on Capitol Hill, and they feel that it needs to happen right now. Walk me through why the timing is so tight right now. Why right now? So I think one of the biggest things is President Biden is set to appear at a United Nations climate conference that begins this weekend. And he's expected to make the case for why there should be a much stronger international response to climate change. And he and his allies very much want to not only make this plea, make this ask of other world leaders, but be able to show that the United States is

also going to do its part and is taking steps to address climate change here as well. And those kind of steps are part of this bill. That's right. But there's also another part of this. This isn't just about this one environment, economic, tax, and social policy bill. It's also about another bill altogether, this $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that essentially makes up the other piece of President Biden's domestic legislative agenda. Okay, so let me get this straight. There are two bills, the social spending bill we've been talking about, and then a whole other bill, which is an infrastructure bill. How do the two relate? So back in the spring, President Biden unveiled his domestic agenda. This is how he wanted Congress to invest in the country, invest in not just physical infrastructure,

the roads, bridges, and highways that are widely popular in both parties, but also further that and strengthen the social support that families have in this country, expanding health care benefits, expanding public education, shoring up support for child care and families with children. So it's like investing in people and investing in stuff. Exactly. And while Democrats control both the Senate and the House, they have extremely thin margins. They can only spare three votes in the House, and every senator, all 50 Democrats, must be united for legislation to pass. So when you're dealing with that kind of margin, you have to acknowledge a variety of perspectives. And Democratic leaders soon realized there was a group for providing money for roads, bridges, and

highways. This has been an elusive goal for members of both parties. And this group of moderate Democrats said, we would like to negotiate a compromise with our Republican colleagues. We believe this is possible. And so President Biden agreed and Democratic leaders agreed. But in order to get the liberal votes they needed for such a compromise, which was all but guaranteed to drop a number of priorities or weaken a number of priorities, they said that they would move this domestic policy package on a parallel track. These two bills would move together. So in the Senate, you saw this infrastructure bill come together after weeks of negotiations, and it passed with Republican and Democratic votes.

But in the House, where again, they can only spare three votes, liberals have held firm that while they will support that bill, as they have said, they will not do so until the text of this much bigger, more expansive domestic policy package was ready. And getting liberals to vote for this infrastructure bill also has some political implications. A lot of Democrats are looking anxiously toward a couple of key governor races in Virginia, New Jersey, and they want their candidates to be able to go out and talk about all the things that Democrats have accomplished while in control of Washington, talk about the roads and bridges and highways that are going to be built with this bill. So for Democrats, there's a lot riding on this, both when it comes to this social policy package

and the infrastructure bill. So all of these things are happening together. You have the Biden trip and the pressure to deliver on traditional infrastructure like roads and bridges, and then the pressure to move ahead on the social policy bill. And that's all coming to a head this week. Yes. And I think that's really why you saw negotiations, which have gone on for weeks between White House officials, party leaders, and a couple of key centrist moderates, really pick up this week. And you saw some of these tough decisions really start to emerge. And then that brings us to today, when early this morning, it became clear that the White House was getting ready to announce an outline of a compromise deal

on the domestic policy package. Oh, wow. All of a sudden. Negotiations in Congress are always tricky. It's always darkest before the light. So fundamentally, what was your burning question for the day? What did you start out in the morning trying to figure out? that has the support of enough Democrats to not only eventually become law, but also shake loose this other infrastructure bill that had been waiting in the wings. We'll be right back. So, Emily, what do you do to figure out what is happening with this bill? Walk me through your day. Where'd you go first?

So I joined a bunch of Capitol Hill reporters, as we often do, and started the morning in a basement, waiting outside, waiting outside a closed-door caucus meeting because President Biden had decided to delay his trip to Europe for a few hours to come speak to House Democrats and make the case for embracing his agenda, embracing this framework that, while still significant, this framework that, while still significant, was not quite the size many of them had hoped it would be. And from talking to people who were in the room and heard the president's comments, he really framed this as an effort to prove that this government, controlled by Democrats, given the majority, could deliver on its promises to voters. According to someone who heard the remarks, he said, quote, I don't think it's hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week. Wow. And he was backed by Democratic leadership in that moment. He was backed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who stood up and told her caucus that, quote, the president has asked for

our vote today. And, quote, when the president gets off that plane, we want him to have a vote of confidence from this Congress. So both the president and the speaker were really pushing not only this framework, but this idea of finally pushing through the bipartisan infrastructure bill today. But after the meeting, two things became clear. The outline was still in flux. There was still this last-minute effort to push some additional provisions into the bill. And it was also clear that for the majority of liberals, for the majority of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a framework, a basic outline was not enough for them to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

They needed the granular legislative text, the detailed probably thousands of pages that will dictate these policies and how they're implemented. How about the centrists? I'm thinking of Senators Sinema and Manchin. So, in the case of Senator Sinema, in his statement, in the case of Senator Manchin, in public comments to reporters on the Hill standing outside waiting for him to walk through the Hill, they don't explicitly endorse the framework. It's more of an implicit acknowledgement that progress has been made and they want to see it through. But because the two of them in particular have had so many concerns, so many issues with the proposals embraced by liberals, there's an element of mistrust here where the progressives are unwilling to take the two of them at their word, particularly if it's not as explicit as I will vote for this. It's difficult for liberals to accept that they will come along on this framework. So what happens next?

So then the president goes back to the White House. Good morning. And he makes his pitch to the nation. Today, I'm pleased to announce that after months of tough and thoughtful negotiations, I think we have an historic, I know we have a historic economic framework. He formally announces this new framework to spend roughly $1.85 trillion. It's a framework that will create millions of jobs, grow the economy, invest in our nation and our people. He talks about how it would help address climate change. Over a billion metric tons of emission reductions, at least 10 times bigger on climate than any bill that has

ever passed before. He talks about how it would boost child care and provide universal pre-K. We're going to make sure that all families earning less than $300,000 a year will pay no more than 7% of their income for child care. And for a family making $100,000 a year, that will save them more than $5,000 in child care. He talks about the expanded child tax credit, this monthly payment for most families with children. What that means is, for folks at home, they're getting $300 a month for every child under the age of six, $250 for every child under the age of 18. We're extending that.

And he talks about how it's paid for, a big priority for moderates. These plans are fiscally responsible. They are fully paid for. They don't add a single penny to the deficit. They don't raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year. And he really tries to sell this idea of compromise. I want to thank my colleagues in the Congress for their leadership. We spent hours and hours and hours over months and months working on this. No one got everything they wanted, including me.

But that's what compromise is. That's consensus. And that's what I ran on. And reminds people that he ran on this idea of bipartisanship, of being able to bring his party together. I've long said compromise and consensus are the only way to get big things done in a democracy. Important things done for the country. And he was making the case that this bill, more than what some moderates wanted, less than what liberals wanted, was in essence the thing he had promised.

A compromise. So let's get this done. God bless you all, and may God protect your troops, and I'll see you in Italy and in Scotland. Thank you. Did Manchin and Sinema agree to this? But even as he's saying this, he doesn't take questions from reporters, and for reporters, there are a lot of questions outstanding about the path forward and whether this outline is final and whether it will be enough

for this bipartisan infrastructure bill to become law. So what happens? Does he get his vote on the infrastructure bill as he and Speaker Pelosi wanted? I mean, as he's leaving on this big international trip? So good afternoon. At two o'clock. Thank you very much for accommodating the excitement that we had this morning with the visit of the President of the United States, a president with a big vision for America. or not there will be a vote. Because famously, as members on across the spectrum will tell you, she doesn't like to put bills on the floor that she doesn't know she has the votes for. And at this press conference, she talks about how... I've said over and over again, the provisions in the bill are about children learning,

parents earning. They're starting to take the steps to move forward with the bill. You know, people have said, I want to see text. The text is up. The text is up for review, for consideration, for review. People will then say, well, this should be this way, or clarification or addition, subtraction, whatever it is. This is the legislative process.

But she also acknowledges that there could be more changes. She has used this line before. She talks about how she has changed more diapers than most, if not all, members of Congress. I still would like to see paid leave for the babies if we can't get the rest. But that's still a work in progress, shall we say. And that's still a work in progress, shall we say. She's among those pushing for a paid leave program to make it back in there. So again, you're in this situation where leaders want to vote, but there's still a lot of unanswered questions and a lot of unresolved details that need to happen. So no vote. Where does that leave these two bills,

the infrastructure plan and the social spending plan? So around 6 o'clock, House leaders announced that they were actually going to take a vote on a stop-gap bill. There are these programs in the bipartisan infrastructure bill that would lapse on Sunday at the end of the month without congressional action. And originally the thought was they're going to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill. It'll be taken care of. But instead, the House this evening passed a stopgap bill that pushes that deadline to early December. In essence, putting off the bipartisan infrastructure bill and giving themselves more time to negotiate

the domestic policy bill and get the votes they need. So they punted? Yes. finish line? Or is it a story of Democrats bridging these huge differences within their own party and getting closer to passing something really significant and big? The fact that President Biden is going to land in Europe without a vote after personally asking Democrats to get behind this agenda, to get behind this legislation, that's a disappointment. There's a lot of frustration among moderates in particular that this bill that has already passed the Senate is still just waiting in the wings, still in limbo. But this is also the legislative process. And sometimes deadlines bring people out of their corners and help facilitate a compromise.

And then other times party leaders are able to buy themselves more time. And compared to where we were a month ago, give or take, we have a lot more details about what a final compromise is looking like. The party is talking about the same price tag. They've whittled down programs. They've acknowledged what things are likely to fall out and stay out in certain instances. And I think for many Democrats, they look at this and they see themselves that much closer to pushing through their domestic policy agenda. This process has been incredibly grueling for all involved. And there is a scenario where this does collapse in the 11th hour. And the question is, is this additional month enough to really pull it off? If they're successful, you're looking at, give or take, roughly $5 trillion passed in one calendar year.

The $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill, this $1 trillion infrastructure bill, and this domestic policy bill, which is nearly $2 trillion. Considering how thin the margins are and the Republican opposition they face to a lot of their priorities, that's a significant amount of money., that's a significant amount of money. And that's a significant amount of policy. And I think for a lot of these lawmakers,

the compromise is a lot more than they thought would be possible while they were in Congress. Emily, thank you. Thanks for having me. We'll be right back. killed by a white supremacist inside a South Carolina church in 2015. The money is intended to compensate the families for the failure of the federal background check system, which allowed the shooter to purchase the gun used in the attack.

They can't bring my father back. That's never going to happen. But they're doing whatever they can to acknowledge the fact that this hurts, that this is pain that I'm going to have to live with for the rest of my life. During a news conference in Washington, the daughter of one of the victims, Eliana Pinkney, thanked the government for acknowledging its mistake. And my sister and I are going to go home realizing that the government didn't sit in silence,

but they paid attention. And they valued my father's life. And they valued the lives of the eight other people who died. And the Times reports that new data from the CDC offer the best picture to date of who is getting breakthrough cases of COVID-19 and who is at the highest risk of dying from those infections. The data show that age is the top risk factor. For instance, vaccinated people 80 and older had higher death rates than unvaccinated people under 50.

That finding helps explain why older Americans are being encouraged to receive booster shots. And while all three vaccines available in the U.S. substantially reduced rates of cases and deaths, recipients of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine had slightly higher rates of breakthrough cases and related deaths, while Pfizer recipients had slightly higher rates than those who got Moderna. Today's episode was produced by Asna Chaturvedi, Rob Zipko, Rochelle Banja, and Alex

Young. It was edited by Dave Shaw and contains original music by Dan Powell and engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brumberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you on Monday.