The Daily - A High-Stakes Standoff in Belarus

Episode Date: September 2, 2020

Aleksandr Lukashenko came to office in Belarus in the 1990s on a nostalgic message, promising to undo moves toward a market economy and end the hardship the country had endured after gaining independence from the Soviet Union. As president, he acquired dictatorial powers, removing term limits, cracking down on opposition and stifling the press.In recent years, however, economic stagnation has bred growing discontent. And when Mr. Lukashenko claimed an implausible landslide victory in a presidential election last month, he found himself facing mass protests that have only grown as he has attempted to crush them.Today, we chart Mr. Lukashenko’s rise to power and examine his fight to hold on to it. Guest: Ivan Nechepurenko, a reporter with the Moscow bureau of The New York Times. For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily Background reading: The protests in Belarus present the greatest challenge yet to Mr. Lukashenko’s hold on power. Formerly apolitical people have taken to the streets against him.Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition candidate who has galvanized the movement against Mr. Lukashenko, is a newcomer to politics who took up the role when more established figures were jailed or exiled.

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. For weeks, tens of thousands of people have been taking to the streets of Belarus to demand the resignation of their president, Alexander Lukashenko. President, Alexander Lukashenko. Today, my colleague, Ivan Nijaparenko, on how Europe's last dictator came to power and his fight to hold onto it. It's Wednesday, September 2nd. Ivan, I know you're based in Russia, in Moscow.

So where are you now? I'm currently in Belarus. It's a country of about 9.5 million, sandwiched between Russia and the European Union. I'm here to cover the contested re-election of the incumbent president, Alexander Lukashenko. In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko has won the presidential vote with 79.9%, according to the latest exit poll. His re-election has inspired people to protest against him

because they felt that the result that was announced, 80% in his favor, is totally incongruent with reality. International observers have never seen any of the elections in Belarus as free and fair, and today there were also widespread reports of violations at the ballot box. So saying that he has won with more than 80%, nobody is going to believe that.

We see days of protests that are being violently cracked down by Lukashenko's very robust security service with rubber bullets and stun grenades and everything. And during that time, Lukashenko himself is basically going quiet. And we don't really know what is his interpretation of what's been going on. Because we think that maybe he's just going to resign. And suddenly, on Saturday night, almost one week after the election day, we learn that he will actually give a rally

gathering his supporters in the central Minsk. And what happens at that rally? So as I come to the rally, to the main Independence Square, I walk through the side streets that lead to it, and I see that there are all these coach buses parked on the sides with groups of people standing. So it becomes clear that people were bussed in and that many people, if not most of them, didn't come there at their own will. And shortly into the rally, Lukashenko himself takes the stage.

And I was very curious to see what he was about to say, because after what I saw on the streets, the police used rubber bullets to your gas and stun grenades, injuring many. And it would be interesting to see how he would justify it. And what he did was actually the opposite. What he did, he said that I own this country. And these people in the opposition, they are rats and they're trash and they're foreign paid conspirators who just want to subvert the stability that we have earned with sweat. He says, and remember, if you destroy Lukashenko,

if you destroy your first president, this will be the beginning of your end. You asked me to keep order. I gave it to you. He was basically saying that I created your country and you should be so grateful that you should allow me to rule over you for the rest of my life. Wow.

Ivan, when Lukashenko says that he created Belarus, what does he mean? Is that accurate? Well, it is accurate in a sense, because, of course, he's the first president of this country. In Moscow, the hammer and sickle is lowered for the last time, and an era comes to an end. is lured for the last time, and an era comes to an end. The red flag of Soviet communism still flew last weekend, but it flew over a country that no longer exists. So Belarus becomes independent in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapses.

And people are euphoric about acquiring independence, acquiring their own flag, their own identity, the ability to develop their own language. But shortly after they realize that democracy, for instance, that they've acquired also brings chaos. A significant portion of the elderly and youth in the country are not only living in poverty, but are barely surviving. And the economy is not working well because as the rest of the Soviet Union, the Belarusian economy was a planned economy with no market, with prices set up from a single center, from Moscow essentially. And now you need to transform this huge economy into a market economy. And in the process, a lot of people in Belarus feel a lot of pain.

And the social welfare programs cannot even begin to keep up with the rate of inflation. Because factories begin to close, their salaries actually, they go down. And by 1994, Their salaries actually, they go down. And by 1994, they seem willing to exchange the freedoms they've earned for a sense of stability that would bring peace to their families. So a presidential election is called, the first one in the country's history. And this is the time where young Alexander Lukashenko comes to the stage. And Ivan, who is Lukashenko in this moment, as people in Belarus struggling to figure out what a post-Soviet Belarus even looks like, are realizing that they

crave stability? He's someone who comes from a very modest background, from a small town in eastern Belarus, who raises quickly through the ranks to become a collective farm manager and then engages into politics. And he seems to be very driven and very charismatic. And people listen to him. People like him, especially people in the villages who have suffered the most.

And he attempts to talk to them directly by telling them that, I can improve your lives right now. that I can improve your lives right now. I can take your lives back to where they were when you enjoyed them so much, when the Soviet Union was kind of at the height of its power. And so how do the people of Belarus respond to this campaign message, this kind of backward-looking, nostalgic Soviet message? They like it. Radical anti-corruption crusader Alexander Lukashenko

is poised for a clear win. With his country's economy in rapid decline, Lukashenko has vowed to purge the top echelons of power and undo market reforms. He wins the election, and he quickly begins to deliver on his promises. He increases people's salaries. He reintroduces state control over prices.

And he cancels many of the market economy reforms that were introduced before him. He stops privatization of government enterprises. He keeps them in the hands of the state. And people are very happy because they feel the change immediately and their standards of the state. And people are very happy because they feel the change immediately and their standards of living improve. But what people fail to notice

is that the main reason why he's able to deliver them was because Russia has been subsidizing, essentially, the Belarusian economy through a scheme that is called Oil for Kisses scheme. Oil for Kisses, that's very evocative. What does it mean? Well, it basically means that Russia, being an energy superpower, was essentially giving Belarus large amounts of oil that Belarus could refine and sell it to European

markets and keep the difference. So by doing that, Russia was essentially trying to tie Belarus to Moscow. So Russia is using essentially free oil as a tether to this former republic. And in return, Russia gets the goodwill, the brotherhood, the kind of loyalty of Belarus. Well, also because the Belarusian leader realizes perfectly well that the well-being of his country and the goodwill of his citizens depends on that whole scheme. So he realizes that his own political existence depends on Russia. Right. And my sense, Ivan, is that during this period, the West, the United States in particular, is watching all of these former Soviet republics very warily. Soviet republics very warily and trying to make sure that they don't slide back into old Soviet ways and that they don't get too close to Russia because they want to make sure that they stay on a path toward democracy. So how does that play out when it comes to Lukashenko and Belarus?

So what happens is that he realizes pretty quickly that this kind of wariness that you've described is an asset for him, that he can trade in between Russia and the West, that he can dance between the two, praising and criticizing both and kind of alternating because Russia doesn't want him to go to the West and the West doesn't want him to go to the West, and the West doesn't want him to go to Russia. And he can benefit on that. And he does that throughout his career masterfully. For instance, in 1996… The referendum's over in the former Soviet Republic of Belarus.

The controversy it whipped up still blows strong. He conducts a very controversial referendum. They give him far greater powers over parliament, plus a fresh five-year term of office. That increases his powers dramatically. The president said dictatorship allegations were groundless. And basically becomes his first step toward acquiring dictatorial powers. And Western powers ostracize him, essentially.

And the following year... He signs this union state agreement with Russia in a grand ceremony held inside the Kremlin's Grand Palace. Boris Yeltsin stressed that the integration treaty between Russia and neighboring Belarus allows both countries to retain their sovereignty. During that ceremony, the two presidents of Russia and Belarus, Lukashenko and President Yeltsin, at the time, they kiss each other, which

becomes this kind of very symbolic moment for the two countries. Belarus President Lukashenko sorely needs economic help. His country's centrally planned Soviet-style economy is in even worse shape than Russia's. Russia sees it as though it basically rebuilds its old empire again. They say it's a good deal for both their countries. The West is not so sure. And the West, of course, is watching closely what is happening and becomes increasingly willing to accept Lukashenko

with his new semi-dictatorial powers because they don't want him to be completely swallowed by Russia. They want Belarus to stay an independent state. So the West becomes more willing to accept him as he challenges their conventions and their desires because he's seen as so powerful. Of course. Over time, he increases his powers. He removes term limits. He stifles all remnants of free press he disperses rallies he kills his opponents actually he killed his opponents well it is widely accepted in belarus and internationally that mr lukashenko at least he was complicit in the deaths of several of his political rivals

at the end of 1990s. Several of his former allies disappear. And what happens next is that there are all these allegations that he did it. And some evidence has emerged that corroborated these claims. And this evidence is pretty strong. So he's becoming more and more emboldened in this dance. He's making the West fear that he's going to be in partnership with Russia.

And that means the West feels like it needs to accept him and give him what he wants. And what he ends up wanting is more power and he's getting it. Yeah, that's right. But Vladimir Putin comes in 1999. And Vladimir Putin is a different type of president than his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. He is much bolder. He's much more pragmatic. And he wants tangible things from Lukashenko instead of just kisses, instead of just telling him that he's loyal. And for Lukashenko, this is a very precarious position because he actually cannot give Putin anything.

He fears that if he actually gives Putin, for instance, the right to deploy an airbase in the country, that would essentially cancel out his value in the eyes of the West. Because it would mean he was just giving everything over to Russia. Yeah. And he would basically get trapped in Mr. Putin's hands and become his loyal servant in truth rather than in just words as it used to be before.

Hmm. So Lukashenko is afraid of that, but of course he's more afraid of Putin's apparent desire to control Belarus directly, which would diminish his role, not only in the eyes of the West, but in the eyes of his own people. There's no need for Lukashenko if Putin is in control, right? So, of course, he doesn't want that to happen. And he's basically being cornered from all sides. And then... We begin with a growing crisis in Ukraine

following Russia's invasion of Crimea. In 2014, Russia annexes the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. Ukraine's interim president says Russia's invasion isn't just a threat, but rather a declaration of war. Most of the countries around the world believe Russia is guilty of a major breach of international law, the annexation of Crimea. The political crisis took an ominous turn late last week when Russia deployed troops to Crimea, effectively taking control of that part of southeastern Ukraine. We'll continue

to look at the range of ways we can help our Ukrainian friends achieve their universal rights and the security, prosperity and dignity that they deserve. And of course, Vladimir Putin is looking for his old ally, the closest ally, actually, Belarus and Lukashenko, to support him in this dire situation. After all these years of billions of dollars sent to Belarus to prop up Lukashenko's regime. He seems like the most natural person to call and say, please speak out on behalf of Russia, even though we have just colonized part of Ukraine. someone like Ukraine approving what Russia did to Ukraine, which would make a huge symbolic difference,

not just for Putin, but for the whole post-Soviet space. So Putin waits for it, and Lukashenko refuses to recognize Crimea as Russian, and he refuses to approve Russia's actions. So in this moment, Lukashenko is clearly choosing not to stand with Russia. And if I'm Putin, I'm expecting him to, because this is why I have been investing in Belarus for so long, for just a moment like this.

Of course. And you need to understand what kind of man Putin is. If someone betrays him like this, he will never forget. someone betrays him like this, he will never forget. So what is the fallout for Lukashenko from that decision? Well, the relationship between Russia and Belarus becomes increasingly sour. Russia decides to reconsider the all for kisses scheme. In 2015, Russia initiates a package of reforms that would basically cancel out that scheme. So that's his punishment? I would say so, yes. And so Putin pulls a plug that has been essential to this Belarusian economy and essential to Lukashenko's success.

Of course, because all these state enterprises that Lukashenko didn't privatize, they are still grossly inefficient. So Belarus enters into a period of sustained economic stagnation. It doesn't fall off the cliff, the economy, But people realize that essentially the economy will never grow with this model. And there's no way to prop it up. It's only going to get worse. And what about the people of Belarus? How have they responded to Lukashenko since the economy entered this period of stagnation? People become increasingly fatigued with their country being frozen in its past. They look into the future. They travel abroad.

They want to see bustling life here. They want to see some development. They want to see some prospects that they can fit in. They don't want to feel inferior to all these people that they have to deal with in the countries around Belarus. feel inferior to all these people than they have to deal with in the countries around Belarus. And Lukashenko is not able to respond to that because he himself is stuck in the Soviet past. So with the presidential election coming up this year, people's patience begins to run out.

Their frustration begins to spill over from their internal thoughts into the public life. And people begin to realize that it's time for change. We'll be right back. Ivan, I wonder if you can describe the lead-up to this election and your sense of when it becomes clear that the people of Belarus want change. Well, what happens is that Lukashenko himself is clearly unaware of the change of mood inside his own country. But some people are. Some people actually inside his own inner circle, for instance, his former ambassador to the United States, and this former foreign minister, he decides to turn on him and run against him. As does the head of a Russia-owned bank.

But this is just the beginning. The main thing is that their campaigns become very popular and people turn in to support them in huge numbers. And apart from these two, you have another person, a popular video blogger. His name is Sergey Tikhanovsky. And he travels with his camera around the country and he interviews people who were supposed to be the power base of Lukashenko's regime. People in small towns, people at factories, and all these people, they just complain endlessly about Lukashenko. И все эти люди просто нечестиво жалуются на Лукашенко. Это как в сказке какой-то, когда был таракан в Сесилии. Они называют его кокосом, которого нужно убить.

Они живут как короли, они процветают, а вы живёте в нищете. Они называют его тем, кто просто ссорит своё кровь, тем, кого они ненавидят, и они это говорят открыто. Этот парень оплодирует всё это на YouTube, someone who just sucks their blood, someone whom they hate and they say it openly. This guy uploads all this stuff on YouTube and this stuff gets to be very popular and he realizes that maybe he would want to run himself. And he decides to run. And as his campaign progresses,

he becomes increasingly popular too. So you have at least three candidates that are very popular. And this is the time when Lukashenko realizes that something is going on, and this campaign is actually going to be different from all the others. And as those three candidates emerge, he sees that actually there's been some error in his vision of his own country. And instead of accepting it, he decides just to get rid of it all. So what he does is he either jails his rivals, including the blogger that has been cruising the country talking to farmers, or he forces them to flee the country. So at this point, he's essentially running unopposed.

That's what he thinks. But reality proves to be more complicated. With elections approaching, hopes rest on this one woman's shoulders. The wife of the blogger, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya hopes that she'll be president of Belarus. She decides that she will run against Mr. Lukashenko instead of her husband. I ran instead of him, not because I need power or because I'm a politician and want to become president and rule the country.

No, I ran to support my husband. So how does Lukashenko treat her? He basically dismisses her as somebody who is not even worth talking about. He says that she is not his most powerful rival, that others are actually more threatening. A member of Lukashenko's presidential administration says that in his office, there's no toilet for women. It's just not equipped.

I mean, they are basically trying to be very insulting and demeaning. And he basically wants to portray her as a nobody. And is he fundamentally right that she doesn't pose a threat to him? Well, of course not, because as we saw before the election day... It was the largest rally seen in Belarus since independence from the Soviet Union. She was able to gather thousands of people at her rallies across the country.

I go to victory. And people genuinely came to see her, even though Belarus is a police state. For instance, if you work for a state-run company, and as you know, most of the economy is state-owned, then you risk losing your job if you appear at a position rally. And the fact that people still showed up despite all these risks means that they genuinely supported her. And all these other candidates that he jailed and threw out of the country, they also supported her. They said that she is going to be our united opposition candidate.

So they threw their support behind her back. And apart from that, the particular thing about Belarus is that polls are banned here. You cannot have a poll. So there are no polls that would say what is actually Lukashenko's real approval rating. But in the age of the internet, you can do polls online and multiple polls have been conducted. And some of them have shown the support for Mr. Lukashenko to be as low as 3%. Wow. So it very much seems like she might be able to pull this off. She might be able to beat Lukashenko. Yeah, but what happened in reality was that when the results get announced, Lukashenko gets 80% of the vote.

And of course, people realized that the whole election was just rigged. So what they do is they come out to protest en masse. But it seems that Mr. Lukashenko, he expected this result, that this is what is going to happen, that people will come out. Because as soon as people arrive to the scene of the rally, almost immediately huge armoured police vans come in. And the people, they are not even doing much. They're standing on sidewalks, clapping.

And the thing you have to realise about Mr Lukashenko's Belarus is that even if you clap in a group of five on the sidewalk, you will be detained. And probably even beaten by police. Wow. And you have this riot policeman in full gear appear on the scene with rubber batons, and they are running around the protesters. But then with time, what I see is that the number

of protesters gets larger and larger. At one point, they even block a street. And what the police does is they bring reinforcements. They bring army officers with shields, machines that are equipped with water cannons. They begin using stun grenades. There's this scene of complete chaos. And this night was the first night when hundreds of protesters were ruthlessly beaten.

They were beaten inside police vans. They were beaten in the pretrial detention center. They were packed like sardines, you know, 36 people in a cell equipped for four people. They were not given water or food. It was basically a huge torture camp. And the scene of the crackdown reminded me of Gulag, essentially. So the goal was to break the spirit of these protesters. And I'm sure even more so than that was to spread the word of these tactics and break the back of these protests altogether. To scare people off so people won't even dare to come out.

I'm curious how the rest of the world has responded to this pretty brutal crackdown on these protesters. Well, the international community was just shocked by all the images. There were calls to sanction Lukashenko and Belarus. There were calls not to recognize the results of that election. And in fact, the results were not recognized by the European Union and many other individual states. So at one point, it felt like Lukashenko has been cornered. And what he did is that he turned back to Vladimir Putin, basically and publicly asking him for support in this situation. And how does Putin respond?

For Putin, it is much more beneficial to have Lukashenko so weak that he would only have Putin to rely on. And thus Putin can easily control him and make him do whatever Putin wants. So he didn't throw a lifeline. He didn't say anything that would directly support him. But he also didn't condemn him. And there's no way back because after what the world has seen, it will take them a long time to forget. So Lukashenko is trapped. He is trapped in Putin's hands. Ivan, I'm reminded of what Lukashenko said to the crowd at that rally that you went to a couple of Sundays ago.

That if you get rid of me, it will be the end of Belarus. ago in it, that if you get rid of me, it will be the end of Belarus. But is what you're saying that Lukashenko himself is now so tied up with, so dependent on Russia, that if he stays, it would mean the end of Belarus, at least as an independent country? Well, what he says is that if you get rid of Lukashenko, there will be no Belarus. But what he means is that there will be no Lukashenko Belarus. And he seems to be willing to sacrifice at least chunks of the Belarusian independence in order to keep his own Belarus afloat. Right. And so a Belarus in which he stays in power is going to be a Belarus that's unmistakably aligned with, reliant upon Russia. Seems like that, yes. And Lukashenko has shown no signs or no willingness to give up power voluntarily, no matter how many people come out to protest against him. The same day there was this pro-Lukashenko rally, there was another rally, and that rally looked completely different from what Mr. Lukashenko's rally looked like. I think that he must go away. We just need peace and we want just honestly election.

First of all, it was much bigger. It appeared to be the biggest rally in the Belarusian history, with more than 200,000 people showing up. Lukashenko, you are! Lukashenko, you are! with more than 200,000 people showing up. We are protesting here against the violence which is happening against the Belarusian nation. Under no condition can people be beaten up in the police station. And of course, I have never seen anything like that in Belarus. Actually, no one has ever seen anything like that in Belarus

because most people, for 26 years, they could never do anything like that. So I understand that for your average listener, it might sound like, you know, these people came out and this is something. But still, I mean, that was extraordinary. This was a historic moment for these people. Long live Belarus! Long live Belarus! Long live Belarus! Long live Belarus!

And people were chanting, long live Belarus, long live Belarus. Basically telling him that you, Lukashenko, are wrong. You are not Belarus. We are Belarus. Long live you very much, we appreciate it Thank you, Michael Since we spoke with Ivan, large-scale protests in Belarus have continued, drawing a response from Russia's president, Vladimir Putin,

who warned the country's citizens against trying to topple Lukashenko, declaring that Russia has formed a special team of security officers to, quote, restore order in Belarus, if need be. Meanwhile, Western countries and several former Soviet republics are seeking to impose sanctions against the leaders of Belarus in response to what they called a fraudulent election and Lukashenko's crackdown on peaceful protesters. We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. We're here to show our support for Kenosha and Wisconsin. The state of Wisconsin has been very good to me. I love the people. We've done a lot for the state. On Tuesday, President Trump defied the wishes of state and local officials by traveling to Kenosha, Wisconsin, where he met with local law enforcement agents and toured a block of businesses destroyed last week

during the unrest over the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Kenosha has been ravaged by anti-police and anti-American riots. They have been hit so hard. As he has for days, Trump clearly aligned himself with police and forcefully criticized protesters as lawless. And.

The Times reports that the Biden campaign has raised more than $300 million in August between his campaign and his shared committees with the Democratic Party, surpassing previous monthly figures by candidates for both parties. Much of the money was raised from small donors and appears to reflect Democrats' enthusiasm for Biden's choice of Senator Kamala Harris as a running mate, which had occurred during the fundraising period.

That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.