The Daily - A Pivotal Senate Race in North Carolina

Episode Date: October 20, 2020

In the struggle to control the U.S. Senate, one race in North Carolina — where the Republican incumbent, Thom Tillis, is trying to hold off his Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham — could be crucial.North Carolina is a classic purple state with a split political mind: progressive in some quarters, while firmly steeped in Southern conservative tradition in others.Two bombshells have recently upended the race: Mr. Tillis fell ill with the coronavirus after attending an event for Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination without a mask. And Mr. Cunningham’s image was sullied by the emergence of text messages showing that he had engaged in an extramarital affair.Jonathan Martin, a national political correspondent for The Times, talks us through the race and examines the factors that could determine who prevails.Guest: Jonathan Martin, a national political correspondent for The New York Times.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily Background reading: North Carolina is a linchpin in the 2020 election — the presidency and the Senate could hinge on results in the state.Here’s how the critical senate race was engulfed in chaos in a single night.

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today. In the battle for control of the Senate, it was the race with the highest stakes. Now, it's become the race with the highest drama. My colleague, Jonathan Martin, reports from North Carolina. It's Tuesday, October 20th.

Jonathan, we spent a lot of time, I think understandably, talking about the presidential race, but a handful of Senate races are happening on November 3rd as well. And that's what we want to talk to you about. So give us the lay of the land when it comes to these races. Well, the Republicans currently have a three-seat majority. And so Democrats, if Biden does win, would have to net three seats to get a tie in which Kamala Harris, then the vice president, could break the tie. So that's what Democrats need, three seats to get a tie in which Kamala Harris, then the vice president, could break the tie. So that's what Democrats need, three seats. Now, it's a little more complicated because

there is one Democratic seat that the Republicans are widely expected to pick up, and that's Doug Jones, who, of course, in 2017, beat Roy Moore in that special election. Well, Doug Jones is facing a difficult re-election in a deep red state this year. And so both parties are skeptical that he can hold on. So if he does lose, that would mean that Democrats have to net four seats. So that's where we start. We're really focused on the presidential race, obviously, for November 3rd. But the other thing we're looking at, control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans... The most competitive races... Some of them we weren't expecting to be that tight, including... Are the following.

Arizona, where Senator Martha McSally, who was appointed to fill John McCain's seat, is facing a difficult re-election against Mark Kelly, who's a former astronaut married to Gabby Giffords. Right. And Kelly has raised an extraordinary amount of money. Challenger Mark Kelly announced raising $38.7 million in the past three months, making him the second Democrat this year to break the record. Is leading in every poll. Democrat Mark Kelly leading incumbent Martha

McSally Republican by 11 points. In Colorado. The voting has begun and all polling points toward a big wins for Democrats, including... Cory Gardner, who was first elected in 2014 as a Republican, is facing a really difficult challenge from John Hickenlooper, who's the former Democratic governor of the state. The four polls taken this month all show the Democratic challenger leading by an average of 10 points. Another race we're watching very closely is the incumbent here in Maine. It's very tight as well. Susan Collins. In Maine, Susan Collins is facing probably

the fight of her life against Sarah Gideon, who's the Speaker of the Statehouse. And speaking of money, Sarah Gideon has raised an unreal amount of money fueled by out-of-state liberal donors who are angry at Collins for her vote on Justice Brett Kavanaugh. So those are the three seats that people in both parties would expect Democrats to pick up if the election was held today. Now, beyond that, it's less clear. But I think it's fair to say that

the potential fourth seat that would give Democrats the majority is North Carolina. seat that would give Democrats the majority is North Carolina. So tell me about the race in North Carolina, this potential crucial fourth democratically picked up seat that could actually determine the outcome of the Senate. So in North Carolina, Senator Tom Tillis, who's a Republican, he won in 2014, and he's now facing his first reelection against Cal Cunningham, a former state senator, military veteran. Cunningham's raised a lot of money and has significantly outraised Tillis. And the question is, where is this state? Is North Carolina more blue than it is red today? And I think that will sort of help shape this race.

North Carolina is a classic purple state. It is a bit blue. It's got some of the most progressive college campuses and surrounding communities in the country, places like Duke University, Chapel Hill. But at the same time, it's very much of the South. And you go to places like Eastern North Carolina. This is tobacco country still.

And there's a conservative tradition, heavily evangelical or Baptist in a lot of places in the state, that keeps it, you know, anchored, center, even a touch center right, depending on who you talk to and the nature of the race. North Carolina also has got kind of a split political mind. When it comes to governors, they tend to elect Democratic governors. In fact, Roy Cooper, the popular Democratic governor, is on the ballot this year as well and is expected to win and win pretty handily. If that does happen, after he serves his second term, North Carolina will have elected a Democratic governor for 28 of the last 32 years. At the same time, though,

in federal races, presidential and Senate, North Carolina is more of a Republican-leaning state. In fact, Barack Obama is the only Democrat to have won the state since 1976 when Jimmy Carter carried it. And Obama only won it once in 2008, and it was by less than a point. And in terms of the Senate, in this century, Democrats have only won one Senate race. And what year was that? 2008. Because Barack Obama brought out so many voters, and it was a great Democratic year that Kay Hagan was able to beat Elizabeth Dole that year for the Senate. But of course, she lost four years later to Tom Tillis. So this is the definition, North Carolina,

of a purple state in contemporary American politics. Yeah, and you flash forward to today. On the one hand, you've got a combination of Black voters and college-educated progressive whites in the cities and a few rural areas alongside, you know, evangelical and working class whites who are anchored in the Republican Party right now. So the reason it's purple today is why a lot of states are purple, because it's got these two different groups who are polar opposite in the same stratosphere. Okay, so tell me more about the two candidates

in this decisive race that happens to be happening in this politically quite divided state, starting with Tom Tillis. What do we need to understand about him? So Tom Tillis was the former Speaker of the State House, gets elected in 2014 before President Trump. And he went to Washington, having run the statehouse, with the idea of being somebody that was going to get involved in legislation. I think I was elected to produce results. Roll his sleeves up, work across the aisle. I believe that the American people are tired of Congress not functioning. Be something more than just a reliable Republican vote.

That's what American people want to see. They're just tired of seeing bills come from the House and die in the Senate. They want to see results. And then what happens is that President Trump comes in and the litmus test in the Republican Party becomes almost entirely about fidelity to the party leader, President Trump.

Right. And on two different moments, Tillis has created problems with his base because of questions over his fidelity to Trump. The first being when he co-authored the Mueller Protection Act. That was the bill that would have insulated Robert S. Mueller from being fired as special prosecutor. Tonight, Republican Senator Tom Tillis and Democratic Senator Chris Coons released a statement calling on President Trump to let Robert Mueller's investigation proceed, quote, without impediment. Second, and more recently, he authored an op-ed in The Washington Post. Senator Tom Tillis writing in an op-ed tonight that while he agrees with Trump's vision for border security, quote, his national emergency declaration was not the right answer.

In which he came out in opposition to President Trump using military dollars on the border wall with Mexico. Wow. Now, this is after Trump has warned Republicans not to vote in favor of a resolution of disapproval. So he was unusually willing, from what you're saying, to thumb his nose at President Trump, despite Trump's popularity with Republicans. Yes, more than most, and it got him into trouble.

What kind of trouble? Well, he had the threat of a primary for some time. In fact, there was a figure who was threatening to put in personal money to challenge Tillis almost entirely on the basis of Tillis's fidelity or lack thereof to President Trump. So it wasn't just that some voters in the state thought, oh, our Republican senator is not doing what I think he should vis-a-vis the president. Somebody was about to run against Tillis on that very premise. Yes. And so Tillis

got religion pretty quickly and became a Trump loyalist. And in fact, well, I've received a lot of feedback over the past few weeks. He recanted on this question of whether or not to use Pentagon dollars to fund Trump's border wall with Mexico. Today, I come to the floor to say that I do not intend to vote for the resolution of disapproval. And fell in line with the president on that. The White House has been very gracious, and I should say very patient, given my initial position. His primary soon dissipated, and he's been a fairly loyal foot soldier to the president this year, has avoided any kind of real criticism of the administration. And then, as if to prove that he knows he has to do work with his Republican

base and consolidating it. We're joined tonight by some really great friends of mine and some warriors that have been a fantastic help to me. One man who, especially over the last year, he has been so great, couldn't be better. The night after Justice Ginsburg died in September. Senator Tom Tillis. Thank you, Tom. after Justice Ginsburg died in September.

Senator Tom Tillis. Thank you, Tom. The president came to Fayetteville, North Carolina for a rally, and Tillis stood on the stage. As a member of the Judiciary Committee, I've seen the list of justices. He's going to nominate one of those justices, and I'm going to vote for their confirmation. And announced his support for whoever the president was going to appoint as the successor.

Now, keep in mind, this was literally the day after, and the president had not even named Amy Coney Barrett yet. Batillas wanted his base and more to the point, Trump's base, to know he was on board. So this was the ultimate sign of his journey from skeptic who was going to support the Robert Mueller Protection Act to somebody who was going to publicly show fealty to the head of his party. Yeah, I mean, I would say mild skeptic. I mean, this is not Susan Collins. This is not Mitt Romney. But yes, I mean, clearly somebody who has become all in for President Trump entirely because he has no path to reelection if he cannot consolidate his own party and his party demands fealty to the president. And Jonathan, how much of a gamble is that as Tillis approaches the general election?

Well, this is the classic quandary for any Republican running this year in a purple state, is that for every action, there is a reaction. I think that was a science class. I was a history major. But anyways, look, he embraces President Trump because he has work to do with the president's voters, core Republicans. He's got to maximize support from them. So he's got to pledge loyalty to the president. The problem is that when you do that, you imperil your grasp on independent voters who in a place like North Carolina, you also need and who do not like President Trump. So this is the difficulty that President Trump has created for a lot of these figures running for office and his party in purple states. They got to walk this balance beam of

trying not to fall off by offending President Trump's people or by offending the independent voters who hate President Trump. Okay. So, Jonathan, what about Tillis' Democratic challenger, Cunningham? What do we know about him? Cal Cunningham is the classic Democratic recruit of the Trump era. He is a moderate in a purple state. He's got military experience, and he's not going to offer the kind of rhetoric that would scare off moderate voters that Democrats need. This is what Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have sought in their candidates, especially in places that are moderate or even a touch center right. Candidates who can appeal to a broad swath of the electorate, who are acceptable to the left, but in their eyes more important, who can appeal to folks in the

middle. And Cal Cunningham is somebody that they believe could do that. Right. We've covered this a lot on the show. Democrats, especially in purple swing states, have embraced a mold of lawmaker with military or intelligence service in their background, and they seem to win. They do. That is a profile in a place like North Carolina, a heavy military state, a lot of bases, and also a lot of veterans there that Democrats believe would be not just acceptable, but potentially formidable against Tillis. And so given that, what is Cunningham's message as he enters the race? I'm Cal Cunningham. And growing up in a place like Lexington taught me a lot about hard work,

service, and standing up for your neighbors. It is very careful. He does not go after Trump because he's going to need folks that are voting for President Trump as well. He's mostly focused on, frankly, safe poll-tested issues like health care. In this race for Senate, it's time for somebody who will stand up and fight to build an economy that works for everybody, for the health care that each family deserves. This was a lot of the 2018 Democratic messaging.

It's not going to excite liberals. It's not going to excite liberals. It's not going to scare conservatives. And in the eyes of Democrats, it's going to speak to political moderates and people who aren't that political at all, but who care about an issue that is obviously central, which is health care. Cunningham is also talking about his personal profile. Growing up in Lexington, which in North Carolina is an iconic barbecue town in the western part of the state, a small-town boy made good type profile, and is emphasizing his military experience. After 9-11, I joined the Army Reserves and served three tours, including in Iraq and Afghanistan, where as a military prosecutor, I took on corrupt government contractors

and waste. Somebody who served with honor in the country's armed forces. And that personal profile, along with his poll-tested, precise messaging on health care, is really his calling card. North Carolinians are hardworking, common sense, decent, and stubbornly independent people. And you deserve to be represented by somebody who gets it. So Jonathan, how does this general election between Cunningham and Tillis start to shape

up? Because from everything you said, Cunningham seems like the ideal Democratic figure to take out a first-term Republican rival. So Tillis has got work to do with his Republican base. We had a survey, the Times did in September, that I think had like 10 or 11 percent of Republican voters who say that they were still undecided on the Senate race. If you're an incumbent Republican senator in September and a tenth of the voters in your party are undecided, that's problematic. And so that's where this race in North Carolina is going into the home stretch. You've got a not very strong incumbent Republican who's trying to consolidate his party still just weeks before the election, facing a inoffensive, moderate white Democrat in Cal Cunningham who the Republican Party just cannot seem to find anything on.

And then what was a fairly steady, dare I say, even predictable race comes undone. We'll be right back. So Jonathan, how does this, as you said, kind of steady, even predictable race come undone? First, as the world does, on October 2nd, in a late night tweet, President Trump revealed that he had tested positive for the coronavirus. President Trump confirming the news with this tweet. Tonight, the first lady and I have tested positive for COVID-19. The president, in his announcement about Amy Coney Barrett, had effectively hosted a super spreader event at the White House. At least 28 other people connected to the White House also tested COVID positive

after a super spreader event in the Rose Garden. Senator Tom Tillis attending that Rose Garden event for the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett. And among those infected at the White House ceremony was Tom Tillis. Tom Tillis announced he tested positive for COVID-19. The irony is that he had been trying politically to get close to the president to consolidate his base. The result, of course, halting any campaign events. And the shaky ground there comes at a time that...

This is terrible timing for Tillis because we're a month out before the election. He needs to be on the campaign trail and not in isolation. And from a perception standpoint, he is trying to win over moderate voters who believe that the coronavirus is a serious threat. And pictures emerge of him inside the White House before the ceremony at a reception not wearing a mask. Okay, so that's Tillis. What else happens in this race to upend the basic dynamics? Breaking overnight, a candidate for North Carolina's Senate seat is apologizing for sending explicit texts, according to our affiliates.

Cal Cunningham, it turns out, has been conducting an extramarital affair, and there are explicit texts with the woman he had the affair with. Cunningham told her he wants to kiss her, and she said she wants to spend the night with him. That explodes across North Carolina, the local news covering it in great detail. Her messages indicate they had sex at his house, and she complains to her friend about Cunningham later ghosting her.

And Republican operatives in North Carolina and Washington believe, finally, we have at least something that gives us an opening in this state. Cunningham's campaign had been based in part on his integrity, and now it turns out that he's been cheating on his wife. I want you to hear something directly from me. And Cunningham, by the way, doesn't deny the tax when they come out. I am deeply sorry for the hurt that I have caused in my personal life. And I also apologize to all of you. He admits to the affair and then he goes underground. So which campaign is suffering the most from these two developments?

Or as dramatic as this all is, is it possible it's having little or no impact on the race? What have you found? Well, and this is why 2020 politics is so interesting, because the impact is not being felt just yet. In fact, this very stable, fairly predictable race that has just suffered these back-to-back bombshells hasn't changed that much. Polls still show that Tillis is in the low 40s and Cunningham, despite admitting having an affair, is still in the lead. What do you make of that? I think that people are mostly voting on President Trump this year, and that translates down the ballot. And independents and Democrats who are effectively casting a ballot against President Trump

are not going to change their mind because of this. So I feel like the reason why these two otherwise, under normal circumstances, pretty shocking pieces of news are not shocking the political system may be because this Senate race, like a lot of Senate races, is really about the presidential race. That's exactly right. This is a kind of year that is a one-issue year, and the issue is President Trump. And by the way, President Trump works to ensure that the spotlight remains on him.

In fact, some Republicans will tell you privately, if he would just put down his phone, not do any TV interviews, not do rallies, and just sit in the White House for the final month of the campaign, he and the party would probably be in better shape because it would be more about the Democrats. It would be more of a choice. Hmm. I think people listening to this will wonder why we aren't seeing some broader retreat from the president, given everything you just said. I know you explained and explained very compellingly why Tom Tillis can't really afford to move away from the president,

which is a very tricky situation. But staying close to the president doesn't seem to hold a great deal of rewards for him either. Well, I think history is the reason. In 2016, after Access Hollywood, a number of Republicans moved away from President Trump. And in two Senate races where Republicans cut ties to President Trump, in Nevada and in New Hampshire, Republicans lost. Huh. And I think the lesson from those races, at least in the eyes of a lot of Republicans, is in a polarized tribal political era, voters are not going to separate individuals. They're not going to make discrete judgments on candidates or on races. They are going to make a judgment on, are you the Trump party or are you

not the Trump party? And that it's in the interest of these Republicans to at least stay close to Trump so you can keep your base intact. Because if you walk away from Trump, that's not a freebie. He's going to notice that and it's going to come down on you. And that is only going to drive more of his folks away from you. This is why a Cory Gardner is losing in Colorado by 8-10 points and still not walking away from Trump. Because the second he does that, he's going to see even more erosion because Trump's people are going to be angry. erosion because Trump's people are

going to be angry. And same for in Maine with Susan Collins. She's the only senator in cycle this year who has not endorsed Trump, but she won't say who she's voting for because she knows if she says that she's voting for Joe Biden, Trump would raise holy hell. So these candidates are in a tough, tough spot. And this is not a political era where you can sort of separate yourself and expect much in the way of a reward from Democrats or independents who are still probably going to vote for the Democratic nominee. And you're going to pay a price with your own base. So the lesson of all this is that Tillis and many of these other senators, they're going to be living by Trump or dying by Trump. And so the outcome of the presidential race is really probably the best guide here.

It really is. And it's no accident that in 2016, this is remarkable, every state that had a Senate race, the results of the Senate race mirrored that state's preference for president. That just does not happen or it hadn't happened until these more polarized times where the Senate races basically match the state's preference for president. And so if this all holds true again this year, that would mean that if Joe Biden wins, Democrats would probably win back the Senate and they will probably have won North Carolina. Yeah. These races are pretty closely tied together. Not precisely, and there's definitely some voters that Cunningham may get and who also may vote for Trump and vice versa, but they're

more closely aligned than they have been in recent political history. And yes, if Joe Biden wins and wins by a clear margin, it's almost certain the Democrats will capture the Senate. Jonathan, thank you very much. We appreciate it. Thank you, Michael. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Monday night, the Supreme Court allowed the battleground state of Pennsylvania to count mail-in ballots received up to three days after the election, rejecting a Republican-led effort to block the change and handing a major victory to state Democrats.

Pennsylvania Republicans needed a majority of the justices' support to prevail. Instead, with just eight justices on the court after Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, the remaining justices were deadlocked four to four. The crucial vote came from Chief Justice John Roberts, who joined the liberal justices to allow Pennsylvania to count the mail-in votes. And on Monday, during a call with his campaign staff, President Trump attacked his top White House advisor on the pandemic and the nation's most respected infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, calling Fauci a, quote, disaster and saying that, quote, people are tired of hearing Fauci and these idiots. The attack appeared to be a response to remarks made by Fauci during an interview on

CBS's 60 Minutes over the weekend that he was not surprised that Trump contracted the coronavirus, given the president's behavior. Were you surprised that President Trump got sick? Absolutely not. I was worried that he was going to get sick when I saw him in a... During a rally in Arizona on Monday, the president continued to downplay the threat of the virus, saying that the country is tired of the subject. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.