The Daily - A Post-Roe Map of America

Episode Date: May 5, 2022

If the Supreme Court revokes Roe v. Wade, individual states will probably be left to make their own decisions about abortion provision.Some states will ban abortion, and some will continue to allow it. And then there is a third group: swing states, where a final decision will be up for grabs.Guest: Margot Sanger-Katz, a domestic correspondent covering health care for The New York Times.Want more from The Daily? For one big idea on the news each week from our team, subscribe to our newsletter. Background reading: Who gets abortions in the United States?What are trigger laws? And which states have them?For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today, now that the Supreme Court has confirmed that a draft opinion revoking Roe v. Wade is real, we look at what a post-Roe world would look like across the U.S. I spoke with my colleague, Margo Sanger-Katz, about where the future of abortion is assured, in jeopardy, and uncertain. It's Thursday, May 5th. Margot, when you read Justice Alito's draft opinion

striking down Roe v. Wade, and we talked about this in yesterday's show, his central argument is that this issue should not be in the hands of courts, but instead left to the people's representatives, which means Congress and the states. And he and four fellow conservative justices appear to have concluded

it really should be up to these lawmakers to decide how much to restrict or allow abortion. So that's what we want to talk to you about today in a really detailed way, what that landscape looks like, since this is quite likely going to be the future of abortion in the U.S. So how should we start to think about that? Well, let's start with Congress, because obviously Congress has the ability to write laws for the whole country. But I think in this case, we're very unlikely to see Congress do anything

anytime soon. Democrats in the House actually passed a bill late last year that would protect abortion rights everywhere in the country. They passed that through the House, but it went nowhere in the Senate. And I think it is going to continue to go nowhere in the Senate because Democrats just don't have enough votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. And in fact, they might not even have enough votes to pass abortion law like that, even if they just had to pass it using a simple majority. So that is probably not going to become law now. You could imagine a future in which Republicans controlled Congress and controlled the White House. Maybe they might take a crack at a law that bans abortion or restricts abortion nationwide in the future.

But again, I think the math is pretty hard. The Republicans have at this time at least two senators who are openly pro-choice and would not vote for such a thing. So I think what we're really looking at, at least in the next few years, is abortion is going to be left to the states. Right. And lucky for us, you have been focused on what's happening in all 50 states when it comes to abortion and what it's likely to look like in those states should Roe fall. So talk to us about that. Yeah, I think it's helpful to think about the states as being in basically three categories. So there are a group of states that are very committed to abortion rights, and they are going to continue to offer abortion to support abortion clinics and maybe welcome more people. There are a group of states that are very anti-abortion and have already passed bans on abortion that are kind of waiting to be triggered when the decision comes

down. And then there's a smaller group of states where I think this is going to be a very active area of political debate where they may want to regulate abortion somewhat, but they may not be ready for a full ban. Right. So three categories, kind of the no to abortion states, the yes to abortion states, and essentially a group of swing states where it might be up for grabs. Yes. Okay, so start with the states

that are likely to allow abortion. I think we have a feel for them, but it would be helpful to describe which states those are exactly and what their laws look like. So if you think about the kind of classic red-blue election map, it's the really blue states that are the most supportive of abortion rights. So, you know, it's sort of throughout New England, Massachusetts, Connecticut, down into New York, coming down all the way to D.C.,

then on the West Coast, all the way across the West Coast, California, Washington, Oregon. And then a couple of states in the Midwest seem really committed, like Illinois. And those are states where, you know, not much is going to change, but I think politicians there are really trying to think about how they can protect abortion rights in the future and also how they can start to be destinations for women who might need a place to get an abortion. And so we're seeing things like in the state of Oregon, for example, they're setting aside money to help women with travel. In Washington and California, they're passing laws that make it clear that they will protect

people from litigation if they help women from out of state get abortion. So in many cases, they have public financing for abortion. So in California, if you're poor and you get Medicaid, Medicaid will pay for your abortion. These are states that are very committed to making sure that abortion is a meaningful right and will continue to be so. So these are states where there will likely be no meaningful restrictions on abortion. It will feel very much like Roe is still in place, even if Roe is gone. Yeah, that's exactly right. And they're also, I think, potentially, though, they are going to become sort of magnets for women who live in states that are more hostile to abortion. So I think, you know, one possibility

is it might actually get a little bit harder to get an abortion if you live in New York or California, not because your state is doing anything to make abortion harder to get, but maybe because lots of women from neighboring states are coming and using the appointment. So I think that's something we're going to have to watch. But certainly from a political perspective, state officials want to preserve and expand access in those places. That's really interesting. want to preserve and expand access in those places. That's really interesting. It might actually become harder to get an abortion in those states because it will be so easy to get an abortion in those states. Yes. You know, abortion is a pretty time-sensitive procedure. You know, you want to get an abortion, generally speaking, early in your pregnancy. And a lot of women, if they're getting it later in their pregnancy, there are time limits there too. So

as there's more demand for abortions, you know, the clinics might struggle a little bit more than they do now. Got it. So what about the next category, the second category of states, those that will severely restrict or ban abortion? Describe what these states look like. So they're, depending on who's counting, between 25 and 26 states that are expected to ban abortion pretty much right away once they are allowed to. When you look at the map, there are really geographically two big clusters of states that are getting ready to substantially restrict abortion. There is a group of them in the South. So if you think about Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and then there's a group of states in

the Midwest, like Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And then there are a couple of states in the Midwest, like Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And then there are a couple states in the Plains as well, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Utah, Idaho. Got it. Some of them have passed laws that are called trigger laws that were passed recently. And they basically say, if Roe versus Wade is overturned, then abortion will be banned. So the court decision is the trigger that trips the activation of that law. will be banned. So the court decision is the trigger that trips the activation of that law. A few of them have laws that are old from before Roe versus Wade was decided when abortion was illegal. And they just never took those laws off the books. And they're kind of just hanging around

waiting to become constitutional again. And then there are some states that have passed new laws very recently, some in the last year kind of teeing up for the Supreme Court decision. So they want to make it really clear abortion is illegal in our state, and when we can enact this law, we will. And in these states, Margo, just how restrictive will these restrictions be? The laws vary a tiny bit, but I think it is appropriate to think of all the states I just mentioned as enacting total bans on abortion. So no abortion for any reason except for very serious life-threatening health problems on behalf of the woman, and a couple of them have exceptions for rape and incest. So when we think about these clusters of states that you're

describing, where abortion will essentially be unavailable, and how big these clusters will be geographically, Help me understand what it would be like to live in one of these states and try to get an abortion. So I think this is part of what is going to make these changes so consequential. It's really this clustering of states that are all going to ban abortion next to each other that I think is really going to have the biggest effect on abortion access. Because when we look at who has abortions in the United States, the people who have abortion are predominantly poor. And those are people that don't tend to have a lot of resources to travel really long distances. So imagine you're a woman living in Jackson, Mississippi. That's the place

where the Supreme Court case originated. Right now, there is a clinic right in your city. But if Roe is overturned, which we think is going to happen, not only is your clinic going to close because abortion is going to be made illegal in Mississippi, but you're not going to be able to drive to neighboring Arkansas. You're not going to be able to drive to neighboring Tennessee. You're not going to be able to drive to neighboring Alabama. And you're not going to be able to drive to neighboring Louisiana, and you're not going to be able to drive to neighboring Louisiana, because all of those states around Mississippi are also expected to ban abortion. And so that means that a woman living in Mississippi is going to have to travel hundreds of miles to get to the nearest abortion provider. And there's a fair amount of research that's

looked at what's happened in the past when clinics close, and there's a very, very close relationship between how far a woman has to travel and how likely, especially poor women are to actually continue to get the abortion that they would have otherwise gotten. And we're talking about really substantial increases in distances for women, particularly in the South and also in the Midwest. Right. And as you said, this is where the end of row becomes a question of class because traveling that distance is expensive. It's expensive, it's hard, and we know that not all these women are going to make it. And that's why this third category of states is really important. Well, what do you mean? Why are they so important? So these are states that haven't really figured out what they're going to do about abortion yet. Some examples of states like this are Kansas in the Midwest, Virginia in the Mid-Atlantic, and Florida in the South.

And in these states, I think you could see things going either way. You could see these states preserving abortion access the way they do now. You could see them banning abortion the way the states we just talked about have done. And the reason why they're interesting is because of where they are located. So if they stop offering abortions, then they start to really intensify the geographic isolation of women who live in the South and in the Midwest, because they're going to have to travel even further. If they continue to offer abortion, then they can kind of become these little islands, these destinations where women who are traveling

have some place that still might be relatively far away, but that is a little bit closer. It's interesting. So I'm thinking of the map and thinking of Kansas in the Midwest, Virginia and Florida in the South. you're saying this third category of states kind of teeters between allowing for people in these unbroken series of states where, for example, abortion might be banned to get an abortion or extending their inability to get an abortion. Exactly.

And all three of those states, Kansas, Virginia, and Florida, what they choose is going to have a very big impact on who can get abortions in this country going forward. We'll be right back. So Margot, let's focus on one of these states that's still making up its mind. On abortion, one of these so-called swing states. I think the one to look at is really Florida. If you think about the map,

Florida is really one of the only states in the South that really has a chance of preserving abortion access. And it's kind of hanging out there, you know, in the southeasternmost corner of the country. And it's relatively close to a bunch of states that are going to ban abortion, like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi. that are going to ban abortion, like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi. If Florida decides to ban abortion, then those women are going to have to travel much further north in order to find the nearest clinic. Okay. And what is the law right now when it

comes to abortion in Florida? So in Florida, there has been some action. We talked about how states were getting ready for the Supreme Court decision. And so this year, the Florida legislature passed a law that limited abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. So that is actually in violation of the Roe standard. Roe versus Wade says that states are supposed to provide abortion up until the point of fetal viability, which is like around 23 weeks. So this is a new abortion restriction that is only going to be possible if Roe is overturned. But at least so far, they would still allow abortions up to 15 weeks in pregnancy. And when you look at the statistics about when women in America have

abortions, the vast, vast majority are taking place before 15 weeks. More than 90% of abortions take place before 15 weeks. So a state that has access to legal abortion up until 15 weeks of pregnancy is a state that could provide a lot of access for women in the South. So Florida, which we think of as the quintessential swing state in the political process, as always playing such a pivotal role, will play an equally pivotal role when it comes to access to abortion if Roe falls. Yeah, and it's for pretty much the same reason why Florida is a swing state. Currently, the Florida legislature is controlled by Republicans, many of whom are opposed to abortion. And of course, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis,

is a very ambitious Republican politician who I think has his eye potentially on the presidency. And yet not every voter in Florida is super Republican. You know, Democrats do win there sometimes and they are competitive in national elections. And when you look at public opinion polling about abortion, there is a lot more support for abortion in Florida than in many of these other southern states that are getting ready to ban the procedure. So it looks like about 56% of people in Florida think that abortion should be legal in most cases, and only about 38% think that it should be mostly illegal. So that is a split that is more like the public opinion in some of these states that we talked about earlier that are really trying to protect abortion rights. So there certainly are important, powerful, and ambitious politicians who are eager to restrict abortion and might like to do it, but I think that they

are aware that if they go further than the public wants them to go on this issue, they could face a political backlash. So Florida is a state where the abortion policy in place does seem to reflect more or less the public opinion polling about its residents' views on abortion. Yes. I'm curious, beyond Florida, how much

correlation or lack of correlation do you see between the policies that states around the country take when it comes to abortion and what the public opinion polling tells us about the views of those states' residents on abortion? I think it's pretty interesting because they're actually pretty correlated. So we hear a lot about what the national picture is in terms of public opinion on abortion. And in general, across the entire country, there have been surveys that have been conducted for decades, you know, and public opinion is really stable. There is a solid majority of Americans who think that there should be abortion rights in some cases, but those people are not evenly distributed throughout the country. Just like so many other issues in American politics, we see kind of geographic polarization.

So in states where Democrats represent the majority, you see more support for abortion rights in general. In states where Republicans control the government, you tend to see more support for abortion restrictions in general. In states where Republicans control the government, you tend to see more support for abortion restrictions in general. And my colleague Nate Cohn did this analysis this week where he looked at all the data from all of the states. And the thing that really jumped out to me is that when you look at the states that are going to ban abortion, they are almost all the ones where the public is the most opposed to abortion. So it does seem like the politicians in these states are responding in some way to what their voters want. So a ruling like the draft opinion written by Justice Alito, which he says is designed to return abortion to the states and in theory reflect the will of the people,

in some ways that is likely to happen when Roe falls. I think in some ways. You know, what we see is that the choices that states are making are directionally consistent with what people in those states want. But I think in a lot of these red states, when people say that they don't want abortion to be illegal all of the time, they may not be signing up for these kind of total bans where there are very limited exceptions to protect the life of a mother, no restrictions in the case of victims of rape and incest. And in fact, these laws may go a little bit further than their voters want. And I think on the flip side, in some of these blue states, you know, we see that when you ask most people about abortion, they have kind of nuanced views about

it. I mean, in general, it seems like there are a lot of Americans who want there to be some kind of legal abortion, but also some rules. And it's clear that, you know, in a lot of these blue states, they are trying not to impose a lot of rules. And so there's some mismatch there as well. And so I think when you think about what the United States is going to look like after Roe, you're going to end up with a lot of all or nothing and not a lot of these states that are kind of deeply engaging in this kind of complicated middle ground where we see a lot of the public would like politicians to be. Right. And so in that sense, Alito might be quite wrong. Yeah, I think that's right.

You know, this is an issue where a lot of Americans have sort of complicated, nuanced views. And when you look at what the laws are going to be around the country after Roe falls, it's not going to be complicated and nuanced. With the exception of a handful of these swing states like Florida, it's really going to be very black or white. Well, Margo, thank you very much. It's great to be on. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.

The Times reports that the U.S. has provided intelligence to the Ukrainian military that has helped it target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in the war. So far, Ukrainian officials say they have killed about 12 Russian generals, a number that has astonished military analysts. In many cases, the U.S. tracked the Russian officers and shared their location with the Ukrainians. And the first study of its kind has found that young children who transition to a new gender through social changes such as adopting new names, pronouns, haircuts, and clothing are highly likely to continue identifying as that gender five years later.

The study tracked more than 300 children across the U.S. and Canada who underwent a social transition between the ages of 3 and 12. At a time when many Republican-led states are seeking to restrict social transitions by arguing they are inappropriate for young children who may later change their minds,

the study offers some of the first hard data showing that kids maintain their identities long-term. Today's episode was produced by Ricky Nowetzki, Eric Krupke, and Stella Tan. It was edited by M.J. Davis-Lynn, John Ketchum, and Paige Cowett, contains original music by Marian Lozano and Rowan Nimisto, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

Our theme music is by Jim Rundberg and Ben Landverberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.