The Daily - A User’s Guide to Mail-In Voting

Episode Date: October 1, 2020

The pandemic will mean that many more Americans vote by mail this year.All 50 states require people to register before they can cast a mail-in vote. But from there, the rules diverge wildly.And a lot could still change. Our correspondent Luke Broadwater, a reporter in Washington, says there are more than 300 challenges to voting-related rules winding through courts across the country.Americans should probably brace for a different kind of election night — it could be days or longer before the full picture of results emerges.Guest: Luke Broadwater, a congressional reporter for The New York Times.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily Background reading: Republicans fear that President Trump’s messaging on voting by mail could depress turnout. But Democrats worry an overreliance on the mail could leave more of their votes uncounted.A New York Times Magazine investigation found that misleading and false claims about widespread voter fraud are part of a long disinformation effort — one that Mr. Trump has taken to new extremes.Here’s how to vote in your state.

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. An unprecedented number of Americans are about to do it, despite the president's attempts to cast doubt on it. Today, a guide to voting by mail. I spoke with my colleague, Luke Broadwater, about the rules and realities of the process across the country. It's Thursday, October 1st. Okay. Are you recording?

I am. Did you put on a suit for us? No, I'm at the Senate. So I'm up here with you guys in the phone booth. Right, because in reality, you cover Congress, even though for our purposes, you have become the kind of pop-up mail-in voting reporter. Well, I got stuck with the Postal Service,

and that sort of led into this. I don't know. It is interesting, and it's like an important story, and we've got to make sure that the mail-in voting is running correctly. Right. It's probably the most important temporary beat I can remember in my time at the Times. Agreed. I agree. So, Luke, we want to talk to you about the mechanics of voting right now. Literally the most news-you-can-use information I think we've ever covered on The Daily. And my sense is that there are three ways to vote right now. In person on Election Day, in person before Election Day through early voting, or by mail.

election day through early voting or by mail. And I want to focus on that third one, voting by mail, because it feels like more Americans are going to be doing that this election year than ever before. So let's just start with a very basic question, which is, how do you, how do all of us go about voting by mail? Well, you're right. We're doing an election in a whole new way. More than a million Americans have already voted, and that number's rising by the day. But the first thing you need to know about voting by mail is you have to register to vote. And there are states where you can register to vote on election day, but if you want to vote by mail, you've pretty much got to do that right now. Most states require you to register to vote by mail by early October. Then after that, there are sort of two categories of states. There are states that once you're registered, will automatically mail you a

ballot. That's what people call universal mail-in voting. And there are states, the majority of states, where you have to actively apply to get that mail-in voting. And there are states, the majority of states, where you have to actively apply to get that mail-in ballot. So let's start with the first category, states that automatically mail registered voters a ballot. Which states are those? Well, there are nine states and the District of Columbia. They are Washington, Oregon, California, Utah, Nevada, Colorado, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Vermont. I guess we should warn listeners, this may be the kind of episode where you literally hear all 50 states named, and that's just the way it's going to be. We seek to inform. Okay, so in those nine states, what exactly happens?

to inform. Okay, so in those nine states, what exactly happens? So if it works according to plan, every single person who has registered to vote will receive a mail-in ballot at their house that is the same thing as an absentee ballot. It's no different, but it's sent to you automatically. So all you have to do is receive it, fill it out, and mail it in. And what is the second category of states when it comes to mail-in voting? So in all other states, they require you to request for you have to fill out to get the mail-in ballot. But in all other states, you have to go online, fill out a form proactively to get the ballot sent to you. And those include some of the, you know, most important states in the election, including Pennsylvania and Florida. So let's say you have this ballot application in front of you. What then? What does it entail? So in the majority of states in the country,

you're going to be able to simply request a mail-in ballot because of the coronavirus pandemic. But there are still five states in the country, mostly in the South. Indiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas require an excuse beyond the pandemic. Those are the states where it's going to be harder to vote by mail because they require an additional excuse beyond simply surviving like we all are in this pandemic. So everything you just described covers all 50 states, which in one form or another, whether it's super easy or a little hard or quite restrictive, all allow for mail-in voting for this election. Exactly. So let's talk about the timing for sending in a ballot application.

When do you need to request a ballot by? Well, each state is different and has different rules. Some of them require you to request a ballot as much as two weeks or even three weeks before the election. Mm-hmm. is two weeks or even three weeks before the election. In Indiana, it's 12 days before the election. In Virginia, it's 11 days. In Missouri, it's 13 days. Some states will allow you to request a mail-in ballot in the days before the election. For instance, Ohio will allow you to request a mail-in ballot just two days before the election. Okay, so let's say you do this all. You fill out a ballot application. It arrives. A ballot is sent to your home in response. Let's talk about what happens to that ballot, what a person needs to do

to successfully fill it out, because my sense is that it's not entirely straightforward. Well, each state is different, but in many of the states, it's a rather simple process. You simply fill in the bubble, you seal your envelope with the ballot inside, the envelope has the postage paid for it already, and you mail it in or you take it to a secure drop box. Right. But there are a number of states that require several forms of identification

or hoops to jump through in order for you to have your ballot count. Like what? In some states like Pennsylvania, there is a secrecy envelope you have to place your ballot into. What is a secrecy envelope?

Well, in some ways, it's a relic from the past, but it's an extra envelope inside the envelope. And so you have to put the ballot in this to keep it secret so when someone opens it, they have to open

another envelope first. But if you don't use that envelope within an envelope, your vote might not count. And more than 100,000 votes could be in jeopardy because of it. Wow. And then there's some states that really make it an interest. Like Alabama, for instance, requires a copy of your ID.

And then you need two witnesses older than 18 to sign the envelope affirming that you are who you say you are. So you've not. Wow. Right. Yeah. So or they will accept a notary public. And so especially in the South, we see a lot of requirements still for identifications and for witness signatures, which can make it much more onerous to vote by mail. Right. It sounds like in some ways,

the mail-in voting is significantly harder than in-person voting in those states. That's exactly right. Okay, so as we move along in the chain of custody of a ballot, once you have filled out this ballot, according to these quirky rules of various states, and you put your ballot in the mail. I've always wanted to ask somebody this question.

What happens to a mail-in ballot once it arrives at the board of election? Does it get opened right away? Does it go into a giant pile to be opened later? What exactly happens to it? Well, again, every state is different. They all will go into piles. That's true.

Some have internal procedures where they, because of concern over the coronavirus, will let them sit untouched for 24 hours before touching them. But after that, each state has its own regulations about when election officials can start to handle the ballots. For instance, in Arizona, you can start tallying the mail-in ballots 14 days before the election. Those go into sort of a secure system that is not released publicly until the polls close on election day. In Colorado, they start counting 15 days before the election. In Florida, it's actually 22 days before the election.

Wow. But for better or worse, there are eight states, including the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, that will not allow election officials to start counting the mail-in ballots until election day. Now, all of that is subject to change because there are more than 300 lawsuits currently throughout the country of people fighting over these rules. And I only expect that to continue and grow in volume after the election. And is it the case that all of these lawsuits are challenging existing rules. People are now saying, hey, wait a minute, with mail-in voting being as significant as it is, we don't like these rules anymore? So the general thrust of the lawsuits are Democrats trying to get more people to vote by mail and Republicans trying to limit vote by mail. trying to limit vote by mail. And what sort of permeates this whole thing is the fact that polls show Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are this election.

It wasn't always like that. Donald Trump got more mail-in votes than Hillary Clinton did in Florida four years ago. But because of the president's rhetoric around mail-in voting being fraudulent, and because of different levels of concern around the coronavirus, what we're seeing this year is Democrats voting by mail at much higher numbers than Republicans. And so what you have is a partisan breakdown over mail-in voting to a large extent. And that's why we're seeing a lot of the interested parties react the way they are in terms of these lawsuits. But, you know, there are lawsuits in 44 states right now, and there's more than 300 of them. So it's literally being contested step by step this entire election. So you're saying as complicated as everything you have just described already is,

it's still potentially about to get more complicated as these lawsuits dictate new, potentially different terms for everything we've discussed. Exactly. Exactly. We'll be right back. So, Luke, as you said, we have never done this before. And when we think about all the scenarios and all the rules for getting ballots in and when to count them and all the challenges to those rules that you just laid out, I want to understand what they mean for how and when we know for sure who our president is. So walk us through the process of reporting results and communicating them to

the public, I guess, starting on election night. We're closing in on the first results in the battle for the White House. It is going to be an exciting night and how close it will be. And we will all be learning these results as they come in together, starting right now. Well, typically an election night. Right now, six states are about to close in six seconds from now. Networks and political analysts are able to call a winner of states. In Missouri, those 10 electoral votes. Michigan goes to President Obama will carry the state of Pennsylvania.

Based largely on the election day vote. That is it. It is done. For this election, it's going to look very different, especially in those states that are not opening their mail-in ballots until election day. Remember, those are eight states, including some of the battleground states. And so in those states, what you could see is a phenomenon that some analysts are calling the red mirage. And what is that?

The red mirage is the idea that because of the partisan divide on mail-in voting, on election day, you will see largely Republicans voting in person. And so it may look in some of these closed states that Donald Trump is winning election day and is up and is on his path to victory when really there's a ton of Democratic mail-in ballots that have yet to be counted and won't be counted for the next day or two. So it's a red mirage because it will be a temporary portrait of a Trump-like victory based on the absence of mail-in ballots being fully counted. That's exactly right. And this year, based on the trends we're seeing so far, because it's mostly Democrats, again, some states two to one, three to one, who are

requesting the mail-in ballots, that is going to be the Democratic vote that is waiting in the mail, so to speak, to come in in the days after the election. And how long, Luke, might a Red Mirage like situation exist? Which I guess is another way of saying precisely how long will Luke, might a Red Mirage-like situation exist? Which I guess is another way of saying precisely how long will it take for all these mail-in ballots to be counted in some of these states? Well, again, each state is different, as we've talked about. But really, honestly, it depends on how big the leads are. So if Trump is up by a little bit, let's say in Pennsylvania on Election Day and Biden overtakes him the next day, well, then, you know, because it's very unlikely that there's a ton of Republican mail in ballots waiting around. But the bigger Trump's lead and the larger amount of mail in ballots yet to be counted, you know, it could take a week or maybe more.

mail-in ballots yet to be counted. You know, it could take a week or maybe more. Look, I want to conjure what this is going to feel like for a specific state on election night. And so let's look at a place like Ohio. Do we imagine that a state like that is going to report to the networks, for example, to The New York Times, to the Associated Press, here's our in-person voting. It's, you know, let's say 60% of the vote, for example, to the New York Times, to the Associated Press. Here's our in-person voting. It's, you know, let's say 60% of the vote. So another 40% of the vote is outstanding. And we need X number of days to count it. So just like, please stand by and be patient and we'll get back to you.

So I would say that Ohio will be in a better shape than some other states because they're allowing the mail-in ballots to be counted ahead of time. So I think in Ohio, you may have a case where you have a sizable portion of the mail-in vote counted in those early returns of Election Day. Now, Ohio is allowing ballots to be counted that are postmarked by the election day for 11 days afterwards. Right. But again, because they're allowed to count early, we may see Ohio in a better shape than Pennsylvania or Michigan on election night. And so what will this look like, if you know, in Pennsylvania or in Michigan then?

So those are the states that I think a lot of people are really worried about in terms of battleground states, closely contested states where they cannot count the mail-in ballots until Election Day. And Secretary of State Benson in Michigan has said repeatedly, it's not going to be Election Day in Michigan. It's going to be election week. Pennsylvania, likewise, also won't count ballots until election day. And they have some of the most contentious lawsuits in the country. And as we talked about earlier with the perhaps 100,000 ballots that could be thrown out. So those two states in particular, I think, which could determine the election, we could be waiting for days and days in those states. You know, when you use phrases like election week, it reminds me of a conversation we had with our colleague Reid Epstein a couple of weeks back about the pretty bruising primary experience that involved mail-in voting around the country.

experience that involved mail-in voting around the country. And Reid's advice was, look, after election night, turn off your TV, take a mental vacation, check back in two weeks later. It's a waiting game. It will be frustrating, but ultimately, perhaps, not the end of the world. Well, I do think that's generally right. Like, I do think voters need to adjust their expectations for what a normal election night will look like and not freak out if they don't know the winners of Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin on election night. And they have to wait two, three, four, five, six days. But I do think there's a bigger concern for people who are concerned about democracy. And I do think that the longer it takes to get these mail-in ballots counted and the closer it is in some states, the more you're going to have legal challenges to every single ballot. And that means, I think, that a lot of people's votes will be perhaps successfully contested by Republican campaigns

and lawyers, and those votes could be thrown out. And you're saying that it would be primarily Republicans pushing to get these mail-in ballots rejected. I wonder why you're framing it that way. Well, because of the partisan divide on mail-in voting, there's now a very strong incentive for Democrats to fight for every mail-in ballot to count and Republicans to oppose every mail-in ballot that's sent in. These arguments will often be done under the guides of election security and fraud prevention. But generally, there's a huge partisan incentive to take these positions. And, you know, if you're in a state where it's three to one Democrats voting by mail over Republicans, you can see why the Republicans want to make sure

every mail-in ballot that can be disqualified is disqualified because they want to win. And you can see why Democrats want to make sure that every mail-in ballot is counted, because they also want to win. Look, the question on everyone's mind is what happens during this waiting period and whether or not the president seeks to capitalize on the red mirage for as long as it may exist. And I'm mindful that a couple of nights ago, both candidates were asked during the presidential debate, will you not declare victory during this nebulous mail-in vote counting period?

And the president did not commit to that. He seems very aware that the red mirage is a distinct possibility. And I think he wants to hold on to the idea that he is a winner and that if he ends up losing the election, it's because of fraud or scams or cheating, as he said during the debate. And so he can walk away with his head high that he's a winner and his supporters can feel like he's a winner. But I do worry that that is creating a recipe for the country of a high state of stress and conflict if there's close to half the country that believes the election was stolen from them.

Mm-hmm. You are not exactly painting an optimistic picture of the days and weeks after Election Day, Luke. I will say what I'm describing is potentially a worst case scenario, but I do think it's a possible scenario and it's one that we should be braced for as a country. I will add that I think this scenario only occurs if the election is close. And if it is a blowout, we're not going to be sitting around for two, three weeks fighting over every last ballot in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. But if it is close, I'm afraid to say I can't see it really not going that way.

say, I can't see it really not going that way. It really does feel, to go back to that phrase that you and I have been exchanging throughout this conversation, that the small differences from state to state are going to come under very serious examination after this election experience. under very serious examination after this election experience. And I wonder if you think that this election, ushered in by the volume of mail-in voting because of the pandemic, as unique as that situation was, is what may ultimately become a turning point for Americans who don't think that much about the logistics of how to vote and how votes are counted, and that we may finally start to think about creating a uniform system, not a state-by-state patchwork. And I wonder if you think that's possible. I do think it's possible. It's certainly what the Democrats want.

There has been legislation in Congress on the House side to bring about more uniformity among the states in federal elections. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has repeatedly opposed passing anything close to that and has pledged that there will not be a federalization of voting and of elections under his watch. But depending on how the election goes, we could have a new Senate and that could be a whole new world. Well, Luke, thank you very much. We appreciate it. Absolutely. Thanks for having me. We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. On Wednesday, the Federal Commission on Presidential Debates said it would change the format of the next two debates, acknowledging that in the first debate, President Trump had trampled the rules, creating a chaotic encounter with Joe Biden. The commission did not explain the changes that it had in mind. But after dozens of interruptions by the president on Tuesday night, there were widespread calls for the next two moderators to be granted the power to cut off a candidate's microphone. And...

I think he misspoke. I think he should correct it. If he doesn't correct it, I guess he didn't misspeak. Congressional Republicans, including Senator Tim Scott and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, sought to distance themselves from the president's refusal during the debate to denounce white supremacist groups like the Proud Boys. With regard to the white supremacy issue, I want to associate myself with the remarks of Senator Tim Scott that he put out earlier today. He said it was unacceptable not to condemn white supremacists. And so I do so

in the strongest possible way. Pressed on the issue again on Wednesday, the president continued to avoid condemning the group. I don't know who the Proud Boys are. I mean, you'll have to give me a definition because I really don't know who they are. I can only say they have to stand down, let law enforcement do their work. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.