The Daily - China and Taiwan: A Torrid Backstory

Episode Date: April 17, 2023

The posturing between the United States and China has been intensifying in recent weeks — China responded with condemnations and military drills after Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, met the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy.Today, Edward Wong, who covers foreign policy at The Times, explains why China is so fixated on Taiwan, and how the U.S. got in the middle of it.Guest: Edward Wong, a diplomatic correspondent for The New York Times.Background reading: The Chinese military’s ships, planes and troops held three days of drills in a spectacle designed to warn Taiwan against challenging Beijing.U.S. tensions with China were on display as Speaker McCarthy hosted Taiwan’s leader.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily. The posturing between the U.S. and China has been intensifying in recent weeks, especially when it comes to Taiwan. Today, my colleague Edward Wong on why China is so fixated on Taiwan and how the U.S. got in the middle of it. It's Monday, April 17th. So, Ed, Taiwan has been back in the news again for the past few weeks. Tell us why. Well, Sabrina, we saw tensions spike this month over Taiwan. Earlier this month, the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, stopped in Los Angeles on her way back to Taiwan from

Central America. I want to thank Speaker McCarthy for his warm hospitality. She went to the Reagan Library in Southern California and met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The friendship between the people of Taiwan and America is a matter of profound importance to the free world. This infuriated the People's Republic of China. Today, China is condemning House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for hosting the president of Taiwan at the Reagan Library. They don't want to see any form of diplomacy, even informal diplomacy, taking place between Taiwanese officials and U.S. officials.

And they announced the start of military exercises around Taiwan. On the Taiwan Strait, China's Shandong aircraft carrier launched 80 fighter jet missions and 40 helicopter flights. This is the latest in the kind of surge in tensions that happens periodically and that has taken place in recent years. The drills came with an ominous warning. China's military is ready to fight. Right. It feels like we're in this cycle where Taiwan does something pretty minor and China reacts. And this brings up a question a lot of us here at The Daily have had, which is, why is China so fixated on Taiwan? Well, this is a conflict that dates back a century, and it permeates Chinese national and foreign policy and the question of Chinese nationalism.

And there are a lot of ways that you could tell the story, but there's a handful of moments that really define it. And I would start with what many people see as the root of the modern fixation, and that arose in the late 1940s. Once again, crisis comes to China, whose teeming millions now ask a single question, what does the future hold? So at that time, there was a civil war raging in China between the Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang, and the communists. In the spring of 1947, the communists exploded in a series of quick offensives, which left the nationalist garrisons in Manchuria dazed and confused. The nationalists have been ruling China for many years under an authoritarian system. And their leader is Chiang Kai-shek. Now, many Chinese saw this party as corrupt and as serving only the interests of the elite. And they were eager to have a new type of government.

And at that time, Mao Zedong was leading the communists and the communist army in a fight against the nationalists. Now, the communist leader, Mao Zedongong is winning one victory after another. And many people in the countryside, as well as some students, intellectuals and workers in the cities, were joining his cause and willing to fight against the nationalists. Red morale was high and above all, they knew what they were fighting for. The civil war raged on for years and eventually the Communist army got the upper hand. Mao Zedong declared, the Chinese people's revolutionary war has now reached a turning point. And in October of 1949, Mao Zedong proclaims the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing. The Reds have changed the face of China and brought the world's largest country within the Communist empire.

And so the Nationalists had to flee and they left mainland China and went to the island of Taiwan off the southeast coast of China. General Chiang Kai-shek returns to power as president of nationalist China. He takes office in exile at Formosa, island fortress, 90 miles from the Chinese mainland. And then once they settled down on the island in 1949, they went about refashioning their government and their society on the island. And they claimed that they were still the legitimate government of China. After their disastrous defeat at the hands of the communists, the nationalists have started anew from scratch. And what did that look like, Ed? So the government that the Nationalists set up on Taiwan looked very much like the government that they had been running on mainland China.

For example, on Taiwan, they had officials who they said were leaders of provinces in China. They had different offices running what they said were places like Mongolia and Tibet in China. They had different offices running what they said were places like Mongolia and Tibet in China. And they also had some of the most sacred symbols of the old China. They had brought treasures from the Forbidden City, accumulated by previous dynasties, and brought them to Taiwan. So both in governance and in culture, they were saying that they were essentially China. Like Taiwan in its own telling was a fully-fledged version of China in exile, right down to the most sacred objects of Chinese history. That's right, Sabrina. And this is very important. They said their aspiration would be to one day depose the communists and reestablish control over China.

So you can see why communist China would be annoyed by this, right? Like a renegade China that effectively lost the Civil War sets up shop right next door and claims that it is the real China. Well, Sabrina, they're more than just annoyed. Mao sees this as an important unfinished part of the civil war, and he has intentions to conquer Taiwan and take it back into China. Okay, so effectively you have two different parties saying that they are the real China, and each side says it wants to take the other side. That's right.

real China. And each side says it wants to take the other side. That's right. And how does the world handle this weird situation of two Chinas? Well, some nations decide to recognize the People's Republic of China, but the United States actually supports Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. And why does the U.S. do that? Well, at this point, the Americans were engaged in the Cold War. They were trying everything they could to hold back the Soviet Union and contain the spread of communism in the world. So they didn't want to recognize the Chinese communists as a legitimate government. And so they decide that Taiwan, even though it's an authoritarian government, should be the legitimate ruler of China. And this U.S. support of Taiwan continued for many years.

But then in the 1960s, something started to change. Remember, the Cold War was very complicated. And in Southeast Asia, the Americans were fighting the war in Vietnam against the Vietnamese communists who were backed by the Soviet Union and by China. And by 1971, the war was going poorly for the United States. And President Nixon and his aides thought that if they could improve diplomatic ties with China, that maybe they could get the Chinese communists to withdraw their support from the North Vietnamese and the Soviets, and that would hasten the end of the war in Vietnam. So basically, swallowed their dislike for one communist regime in an effort to contain the other,

and on the chance that it might end this disastrous war they were engaged with. That's exactly right. And in addition to the urgent problem of the Vietnam War, Nixon and his aides were also beginning to recognize the potential power of China. And they think that the country could be an important partner if they take the right diplomatic steps. So what does Nixon do? In 1971, Nixon sent his aide Henry Kissinger on a secret trip to China to start having talks with Chinese officials on reopening diplomatic ties. Shortly after Kissinger's secret visit, Nixon announces that he himself will make a trip to Beijing. There can be no stable and enduring peace without the participation of the People's Republic of China and its 750 million people. And in 1972, he travels there.

East meets West as a handshake bridges 16,000 miles and 22 years of hostility. He goes to the Great Wall. And he speaks with Mao Zedong. It's a huge, earth-shaking event in diplomatic relations around the world. So Nixon here is switching sides. I mean, effectively reversing decades of American foreign policy. Yes. And this begins a new chapter in U.S.-China relations and in world diplomacy. And the actions of the U.S. government that began under Nixon culminate in 1979. The United States of America and the People's Republic of China have agreed to recognize each other and to establish diplomatic relations as of January the 1st, 1979. When President Carter

formally establishes diplomatic recognition of the communist-run government in Beijing as the legitimate government of China. The government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. And he officially cuts off diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Okay, so at this point, communist China gets what it wants, right? Well, not exactly, Sabrina. President Carter did give China a big part of what it wanted, which was diplomatic recognition of its government. But Carter also put the question of Taiwan aside. Beijing wanted the U.S. to acknowledge that Taiwan was ruled by China. But what Carter did was a very complicated evasive maneuver.

He said in his own words that the U.S. acknowledges China's position, that there's one China and that Taiwan is part of it. But that doesn't mean that the U.S. endorsed that position. as part of it. But that doesn't mean that the U.S. endorsed that position. Carter wasn't explicitly supporting Beijing's idea that it was the ruler of Taiwan now. It just said it knew how Beijing felt about the situation. And that's the foundation of what the U.S. calls its one China policy. So this is a real act of political jujitsu on the part of the United States, right? I mean, Carter saying to Beijing, we recognize that you think Taiwan is part of China. We hear you. But we're not saying that we agree.

That's exactly right. So Carter left the U.S. government's position on Taiwan status intentionally vague. And that would have far-reaching consequences in the coming decades. We'll be right back. So, Ed, you said that the U.S. left its position toward Taiwan ambiguous intentionally. How does that play out? So when Carter makes this announcement, formally establishing diplomatic ties with China, not everyone in the U.S. is enthusiastic about it. And some lawmakers in Congress are not happy with the recognition of

Beijing and this loss for Taiwan. They want to protect Taiwan in case the Chinese Communist Party ever tried to make a move against it. So in 1939, the same year that the Carter administration formally establishes diplomatic ties with China, Congress passes this legislation called the Taiwan Relations Act. It essentially commits the U.S. to protecting Taiwan in certain ways without saying explicitly that its military would come to Taiwan's defense. This act says that the U.S. must give weapons of a defensive nature to Taiwan. It says that it must maintain a capacity to defend Taiwan if there's coercion. And it says that it will work to make sure that any friction or tensions over Taiwan are resolved peacefully.

Doesn't that seem to run counter to the U.S. diplomatic efforts toward China? Because China and the U.S. have just spent the entire decade of the 1970s hammering out diplomatic relations, right? And now, if China takes any military action against Taiwan, this new condition basically says that the U.S. might take action to defend Taiwan. That's right. And it creates this deep mistrust between the rulers in Beijing, on the one hand,

and the U.S. and Taiwan on the other hand. And in the coming decades, something happens within Taiwan that makes China even more upset. So remember, the original nationalist leaders in Taiwan had the singular focus on retaking China. And then you had these newer generations of people in Taiwan who were born on the island, who had never been to China, and who had no interest in claiming ownership of China. They were really more interested in their identity as Taiwanese people and in governing themselves in Taiwan. And in the 1990s, there was this groundwork of support throughout the island for the leaders to install a new political system. People wanted a democracy

and they wanted multiple parties and general elections. So up until this point, Taiwan has basically seen its future as connected to China. But now, Taiwan, in a way, is striking out on its own, which is probably very threatening to China, right? Right. And of course, China is watching this very carefully. And this push for democracy culminates in the first democratic presidential election in 1996. For people in Taiwan, this is their proudest moment. The Taiwanese elected their first native-born president, Lee Tung-hui. President Lee swept a victory with almost 54% of the vote.

Communist China is trembling because of our democracy, Li Dongwei tells the crowd. He calls China's aging leaders lockheads. And his decisive victory and leadership style sent the message to Beijing. He and the Taiwanese people were saying that while Taiwan wasn't going to openly claim to be an independent country, it would push the boundaries and edge away from this idea of one China. So how does China react? country, it would push the boundaries and edge away from this idea of one China. So how does China react? Well, of course, the communist leaders are anxious. On the Chinese mainland, the communist leadership is not just fuming over the democratic frenzy on Taiwan. They've literally gone ballistic. Their biggest action came in the

months before and then around the election, when China took a very aggressive step and shot missiles into the waters around Taiwan. China's military exercises serve notice to Taiwan that independence is not an option. And then the U.S. sees this and it responds by sending warships to the area around Taiwan to tell Beijing to back off. by sending warships to the area around Taiwan to tell Beijing to back off. Our purpose in being here is to demonstrate the presence and commitment of the United States to peace and stability in the region. With two U.S. naval battle groups now in the South China Sea, the war of nerves intensified. So this is that U.S. policy of look but don't touch. Right. And some people say that this moment was the first

big test in this three-way dynamic that the U.S. established with its policies on Taiwan. And this is a type of action and reaction involving military forces that becomes a defining pattern in relations in the coming years. Right. The pattern is that China has this unfinished business with Taiwan, and it's frustrated by the role of the United States, and each country is responding to the other's moves with Taiwan in the middle. That's right. And this sense of impending conflict has gotten a lot higher in recent years, especially because we've seen a more aggressive leader emerge in China. Xi Jinping, the current leader of China, has made some very bold statements on Taiwan. After he took power in 2012, he said that the problem of Taiwan cannot be passed on from generation to generation. And for some people,

that suggests that Xi might make some bold and decisive move on Taiwan in the near future to resolve that issue. And then in the U.S., you also have this transition from President Obama to President Trump, who was a lot more confrontational with China. Right. Trump campaigned on how he was going to be tough on China. That's exactly right. So, for example, after Donald Trump won the election in 2016, officials who worked under President Trump took a much more assertive position on China, and they really framed U.S.-China relations as an intense competition and pushing out any room for cooperation between the two nations. By the end of the Trump administration, they were trying to figure out ways to strengthen Taiwan and the government there as a bulwark against China.

In other words, China and the United States are both more aggressive in this moment. That's exactly right. And we've seen the Biden administration continue to take assertive actions around the Taiwan Strait. Biden officials have continued sending warships through the Strait as a signal to Beijing. And President Biden himself has said four times now that he will have the U.S. military defend Taiwan if China were to try and take military action against the island. So at this point in the story, it almost seems like the U.S. is just as fixated on Taiwan as China is. Why? Well, I think there's several reasons for that, Sabrina. Some U.S. national security officials think Taiwan is an important strategic point to contain China.

So, for example, they want to make sure that the Chinese military cannot extend its reach beyond Taiwan and into other island chains in the far Pacific. And they think that as long as Taiwan remains autonomous and has robust military forces, it'll be difficult for China to do that. So an important check on China's military power. Exactly. And U.S. officials also have begun to realize the importance of Taiwan in the global economy. At this point, Taiwan has the world's most advanced semiconductor industry. And as you know, these chips that their companies make are used in everything from appliances in our household to the most advanced military systems that the United States and other countries deploy around the world. So the U.S. sees

the Taiwanese semiconductor industry as something that must protect and views it as a sector that China cannot get its hands on. So Ed, when we started this conversation over Taiwan, the big question was, who was the real China? But what you've laid out here is really much broader than that, right? I mean, Taiwan has come to represent much more for the U.S. and China. It's really come to symbolize this battle between the two superpowers over military power, over the U.S. and China. It's really come to symbolize this battle between the two superpowers over military power, over the economy.

I mean, it really feels like it contains the fate of the future of the world in a lot of ways. Sabrina, when I talk to U.S. officials here in Washington, they also speak about it in these very high-stakes terms. And some of them are openly speculating on whether the U.S. and China will end up fighting a war over Taiwan in the coming years. But no one wants that war. When you look at the actions that the U.S. and China are taking, you can tell that they want to make sure they don't cross that line. They'll move up to the edge, but they're not willing to take that next step.

And where does all of this leave Taiwan? Well, of course, the Taiwanese don't want war over their island. So even today, you see Taiwan's leaders trying to very carefully calibrate their actions. We saw that recently when House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met with President Tsai Ing-wen in Southern California. President Tsai Ing-wen in Southern California. President Tsai could have invited him to Taiwan, but she chose to meet with him on U.S. soil instead. I suspect that she knew that Beijing would see this as a less provocative action. And she appears to have been right.

We saw how the Chinese reacted. They sent warships and airplanes around the Taiwan Strait. But that was a much less intense military action than other things they'd done in the recent past. So Taiwan was kind of just testing the line, right? Gauging how far it could go without provoking the full fury of China. Yes, and I think President Tsai's calculation is an example of the tightrope that Taiwanese leaders and citizens have walked for decades. It's interesting because I would think that Taiwan would be in a pretty vulnerable position. But you're talking about Taiwan as having agency. Yeah, in many ways, it's counterintuitive, Sabrina.

Many people think of Taiwan as this tiny island of 23 million people living in the shadow of China. And it's true that Beijing has taken steps to diplomatically isolate them from much of the world. But the Taiwanese see themselves as being much more than a pawn in a geopolitical contest between superpowers. And despite all the pressure on them, they've managed to build an important economy over the years. They've created a new government and they put democracy into practice. And they managed to avoid armed conflict over their island through all these decades. So when I talk to Taiwanese officials and citizens these days, many of them tell me that the fate of the island is really in their hands. Ed, thank you. Thanks, Sabrina. It's always great to talk to you.

We'll be right back. Here's what else you should know today. Over the weekend, Sudan descended into violence, with street battles raging for control of Khartoum, the capital. Four years ago, Sudan was an inspiration to the world when its citizens toppled a widely detested ruler, Omar al-Bashir. The revolution faltered 18 months ago when the military seized power in a coup. The military was supposed to hand back power to civilian leaders this week. Instead, two generals, each commanding different factions of the armed forces, are now battling each other for control of the country.

Scores of people have been killed in the fighting and hundreds injured. Today's episode was produced by Stella Tan, Mary Wilson and Shannon Lin, with help from Luke vanplug. It was edited by M.J. Davis-Lynn. Fact-checked by Susan Lee. Contains original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, and Rowan Nemesto. It was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Amy Chin.

That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.