The Daily - Europe Caves to Trump on Tariffs
Episode Date: July 29, 2025By almost all accounts, the historic trade deal that was reached between the United States and the 27 nations of the European Union is far better for the United States than it is for Europe.Jeanna Smi...alek, the Brussels bureau chief for The Times, explains why the European Union gave in to President Trump and the blowback that’s causing.Guest: Jeanna Smialek, the Brussels bureau chief for The New York Times.Background reading: Is the European Union’s tariff deal with the United States good for Europe?The framework agreement is not likely to do much for economic growth on either side. But it avoids new fissures on other foreign policy issues, particularly the war in Ukraine.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/The New York Times Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bobarro. This is The Daily.
By almost all accounts, the historic trade deal that was just reached between the United
States and the 27 nations of the European Union is far better for the U.S. than it is
for Europe.
Today, my colleague Brussels Bureau Chief Gina Smilin on why the EU caved to President
Trump and the blowback that it's causing.
It's Tuesday, July 29th.
Gina, always a pleasure.
Thank you for having me.
You know, it occurs to me that, Gina, when two sides reach any kind of major deal, they usually find a way to tout it,
to celebrate it, even if they don't exactly like it.
And that's not exactly what's happening on the European side of this enormous trade deal
that was just reached between Europe and the US.
No, that is very much not what is happening
on the European side of this trade deal.
I think the most optimistic takes we're hearing
are things like, well, gee, this could have been worse.
And-
It's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
No, no, not at all.
This is a humiliating capitulation on behalf of the EU.
And it really calls into question
this amazing negotiating strength that the EU was supposed to exert.
And the most pessimistic things we're hearing are, this was a political capitulation, this
is a shame for Europe.
It's not a win for anybody.
It's a miserable deal.
I'm appalled.
I'm absolutely appalled.
And one quote was, it's a dark day when an alliance of free peoples gathered to affirm
their values and defend their interests resolves to submit. And that one was from the French
prime minister. So very negative reviews.
Right. One of the leaders of France just basically accused all of Europe of submission to President
Trump.
Yes. And it wasn't just the French complaining about this.
We saw it coming from the Belgians.
We saw it coming from analysts.
We saw it coming sort of across the board.
There were a lot of complaints about this deal.
It really makes you wonder, what is it actually doing for its member states?
It's a real failure on the part of the European Commission in negotiating here.
And just explain what's behind these dramatic, somewhat abashed, embarrassed, even ashamed
reactions from some of these European officials, why this does appear to them to be so bad
for the European Union.
I think it's really a matter of this deal looking a lot worse in the details than what had been expected for a long time.
Europe is, depending on how you measure it, either the world's second or third largest economy with a huge trading relationship with the United States.
And for a long time, European Union officials thought that that would give them some amount of leverage when negotiating with the Trump administration.
And what they discovered is actually they ended up having a much more difficult time
than they had expected.
And they had to accept a worse deal than I think that they had thought they would even
as recently as a month or a few weeks ago.
And just take us on a very quick spin through the important numbers that reflect
the worse than they expectedness of this.
Yeah, the big number is 15%, which is the across-the-board tariff rate
that the Trump administration has agreed to here,
which would apply to about 70% of all European Union goods
being sent to the United States.
And that is up from what?
That is up from the low single digits,
depending on how you measure it, coming into this year.
And it is pretty dramatically higher
than what Europe had expected that they
were going to arrive at.
So at first, Europe was hoping that they
could negotiate Trump back down to those low single digits.
And then even up until a few weeks ago, they were hoping that they could get him to 10%. They were hoping
that 10% would be the prevailing tariff rate and so 15% is not a
particularly good outcome. But just to ask the obvious question, why has Europe
agreed, submitted in the words of this French Prime Minister, to a trade
agreement that almost none of them
seemed to really like.
I think there are two really big forces that argued for them
to make a deal and for them to make this deal now.
The first is that they were increasingly
worried that this could turn into a real tariff trade war
spiral.
And I think that that was not initially on their radar
in the way that it ultimately became on their radar
Going into this if you rewind to liberation day April 2nd that day when
President Trump stood out in the Rose Garden with his poster saying what the across-the-board tariff rates were going to be on different economies
Back then European Union officials really thought that they could negotiate down their across-the-board tariff rate, which was 20% as of Liberation Day.
Then those negotiations did not go well, and President Trump threatened to slap them with
50% tariffs, but he backed off of that relatively quickly.
And so I think they thought that they could still negotiate down.
And then you get up until very recently when President Trump was threatening Europe with 30%.
And just as these threats kept rolling in and as he kept doubling down on them, it became more obvious to Europe that he was pretty serious about them.
And a tariff rate around 30% would absolutely have crushed transatlantic trade.
European Union officials were really clear about that.
European Union officials were really clear about that.
And so I think they got increasingly worried that if they retaliated, they might just poke the bear.
President Trump might still double down. It could just result in this spiraling situation where they're retaliating, the administration is reacting, and that it would both cost jobs here in Europe and also potentially crush an economy that has been growing but not growing very quickly.
Interesting.
So at some point in the kind of yo-yoing of Trump's position, which starts off very firm
and then there's a pause and sometimes it feels like he's backing down, but then he's
back up with an even higher threat.
At some point, European Union officials say to themselves, this is becoming real, even
if it's very unpredictable and maybe because it's becoming so unpredictable
We now fear that the worst version of this is going to become our reality
Yes, or a very extreme version of this
I think there was this growing recognition the Trump administration was really willing to inflict some serious pain to achieve their trade goals
Mm-hmm. I'm just curious what an example would be of the pain
that they most feared.
Yeah, so I think the most specific and clear example
might be the pharmaceutical sector.
And so pharmaceuticals typically not tariffed,
because these are really important, potentially
lifesaving medicines that consumers need.
But President Trump has opened an investigation
into the global pharmaceutical industry.
He's been very clear that he wants to bring some of it back
to the United States.
And he has been threatening to put potentially
really huge tariffs on this industry.
He's thrown out numbers like 200%.
That would be a very big deal for Europe
because pharmaceuticals and the chemicals related to them
are the number one
export that the EU sends to America. And so this was a real point of concern. And I think it was
one that became more and more salient because you were seeing the pharmaceutical companies
really warning that if big tariffs hit, they might have to pick up and move operations to
the United States. You were seeing pharmaceutical companies trying to stockpile product in the United States
to try and sort of mitigate disaster if this actually came to pass.
And so I think it just became as the months wore on, more and more real that this might
happen.
And that was sort of an example of the kind of cautionary tale, the kind of, you know,
reworking of economic relationships that really started to catch people's attention.
Mm-hmm.
We've already started to see a lot of pain
in the automotive sector.
So, obviously, American consumers
are probably very familiar with German carmakers,
you know, the BMWs, the Mercedes Benzes of the world.
They were staring down pretty serious tariff rates.
And if those had continued for a really long time,
could have been very damaging to their business. staring down pretty serious tariff rates. And if those had continued for a really long time,
could have been very damaging to their business.
And so I think there was also a very, you know,
intense push by the German carmakers
and by carmakers in general,
to try and come to some kind of deal
to make it a little bit less punishing,
and certainly to increase the certainty
around what tariffs were going to look like.
Right.
You said that there was a second reason beyond fear of economic trauma from the US
towards European Union countries. So what was that?
Yeah, and I think this one is actually the more surprising one, but there have been all
of these other issues that have become sort of bundled up into this trade war
that are typically thought of as pretty unrelated to trade.
So things like defense,
things like America's involvement in NATO,
things like America's support for the war in Ukraine,
the other parts of the transatlantic relationship
became very much tied up in this trade war
and the idea that if you ended up in a huge trade battle
and if you ended up with really huge trade battle and if you ended up
with really, really rapidly declining relationships between the United States and the European
Union, all of these really important geopolitical strategic priorities could get caught up in
that mess.
Hmm.
In other words, EU trade officials began to feel like they couldn't disentangle doing a deal on
tariffs with the US from getting what they want from President Trump when it
comes to arms for Ukraine or ongoing commitments to NATO and so they decide
let's do this deal because it will make everything else we're negotiating with
the Trump administration easier
Yeah, and they've been really explicit about that
So Mara sefcovich who is the European Union Trade Commissioner told reporters on Monday?
Explicitly that it's not only about trade. It's about security. It's about Ukraine. It's about current geopolitical volatility
Hmm, so you really kind of can't get more blunt than that
Like he was saying that
this deal is not just about trade anymore. Right. And primarily what he seems to be saying
and what you seem to be saying is this was about fear. And just to summarize what appears
to have happened here, President Trump spooked the European Union, these 27 countries that collectively operate as one economic
unit on a variety of fronts, military, diplomatic, economic, and this spooked EU decides to give
the president more or less most of what he wants in the biggest trade deal that he has
gotten so far.
And that's how you get to a 15% tariff deal
that most European leaders don't really like.
Yeah, I think that's right.
I think even the fact that they emphasize so clearly
that this was the biggest deal,
that they kind of helped him to advertise this
in very Trumpian language,
kind of speaks to the fact that they were really in sort of
appeasement mode here.
Okay, well when we come back, we're going to talk about what this pretty lopsided deal
means precisely on the ground for both sides, what Europe gave up and what the US seems
to have gotten.
And we'll be right back.
So Gina, let's talk about what exactly Europe gave up here. Clearly we've established that almost every industry
is now going to be paying 15%.
So let's talk about what that is going to mean, its impact, and other things in this
deal that stand out as being tough for Europe to swallow.
So I think the first most important thing to really sort of digest is what that 15%
tariff that's going to apply to 70% of European goods will mean in practice. And what it will mean in practice is that products that are being sold into the American
market are going to become a little bit less competitive vis-à-vis things that are comparable
and are produced by American producers.
And so I think a good example, assuming that it doesn't end up having an exemption applied
to it in the next couple of days, could be a bottle of Italian Chianti
Hmm, you're selling Chianti into the American market now
It's competing with some nice wines from California and suddenly it is 15% more expensive
Assuming the entire tariff is passed along to the consumer, right?
And so we're looking at a situation where European producers are going to have a slightly tougher time selling into the U.S. market. That could also apply for things like
cars. Suddenly, depending on how things play out, your BMW or your Mercedes Benz's are
going to be a little bit more expensive to get into America than they previously would
have been. Now on the flip side, Europe is giving more
favorable terms of trade to some American
companies that are sending products here into Europe.
And so cars are another good example just to sort of fall along that line.
They are now going to be subject to 0% tariffs coming into Europe.
Wow.
American cars will be imported into Europe with zero tariffs, whereas European cars imported
into the US will be hit with 15% tariffs.
Yes.
And so European cars are getting a little less competitive within the United States
market at the same time that American cars are getting more competitive within the European
market.
I'm just trying to understand why Europe would agree to terms like that for cars.
That would suggest that there has been a pretty serious existing imbalance trade deficit within
the car industry with way more European cars being brought into the American market than
American cars being brought into the European market.
Is that the case?
It is the case that Americans buy more European cars than Europeans buy American cars.
And it is also the case that prior to this year, there were slightly higher tariffs on
American cars coming into Europe, especially if you count in trucks, than there were on
European cars coming into America.
So those things are true.
This reversal is bigger than an offset.
Right.
And I think that the reason that this industry became
such an important issue here is really that it's one
that President Trump has been fixated on.
He really cares about this.
A lot of times when he's in Europe,
he'll remark on the fact that there are no American cars
on European streets.
You know, he's not seeing Fords on the streets of Munich.
And so I think that that is part of the reason that this became sort of one of the sort of
swap-aroos, if you will, in this deal, is that it was something that President Trump
found very salient.
Okay.
So beyond giving a boost to American car manufacturing, how else does the deal benefit the American
side of the ledger?
So we have heard from the Europeans that they are going to drop tariffs to very low rates or potentially even zero on a couple of products.
We don't have the exhaustive list yet. They haven't published it, but it's going to be potentially industrial goods, so things like machinery.
And then we are also hearing that it could be things like frozen seafood and lobsters
don't know who in the lobster lobby managed to pull that off, but
But yeah, what is more American than a main lobster though?
Yeah, well main lobsters coming to a Berlin bar near you without a tariff
Terrible and then we are also expecting some investments that the EU has reportedly
pledged to make and that Trump made a really big deal out of when he was announcing the
deal. For one thing, there is going to be $750 billion in investments in energy over
the next three years.
Well, that's real money if it's real.
Yeah, big headline numbers, big questions about exactly how that's going to play out.
The European Union as such does not have the ability to just make those kinds of purchases.
That's something that would happen at the member state levels.
And the EU can't necessarily force their hands when it comes to making such purchases.
And so some serious questions about how that part would work.
Okay.
So now that we understand the ways in which this deal clearly benefits the US considerably
and disadvantages Europe considerably, I want to understand how it fits into President Trump's
goals for the second term trade war.
And really he's laid out two main objectives in each negotiation, to have a fairer trade
relationship with whoever the trading partner is, Japan, China, EU, and to encourage more American
manufacturing through these trade deals.
On those two scores, how should we think about what the US and the EU just agreed to?
Is it making trade fundamentally fairer than it had been between the United States and
the 27 countries of the EU?
And is it likely to spur more manufacturing in the US?
So I'm going to leave the question of fairness aside,
but it is definitely the case that for years,
the European Union has sold more to American consumers
than European consumers have bought from American producers.
And I think all else equal, you would assume that this
would slightly rebalance that.
I think it's also the case that American consumers spend a little more and European consumers spend
a little less. So I'm not going to pretend that this is just going to completely change that
relationship overnight. On the question of whether this brings manufacturing back to the United
States, 15% is probably not a prohibitive tariff.
It's probably not gonna be the thing that, you know,
causes company X to decide tomorrow
that it needs to up and move to Syracuse.
But I think that at the same time,
if you're a company and you've just lived
through this really uncertain tariff period,
and you think there's a possibility
that the Americans could do this again,
or that this uncertainty could last into the future, or that, you know, this is not the
end of the story. Maybe if you're thinking about expanding, you're a little bit more
likely to set up shop somewhere in the United States where you are shielded from some of
those concerns. Right. But I think it's important to emphasize, and I think the European Union
would emphasize that this comes at some cost to Americans, right?
When we talk about tariffs, they are fundamentally a tax,
and somebody's gotta pay that tax.
And what we know from historical tariff experience
is that that tends to be the end consumer,
which in this case is the American consumer.
Of course, what President Trump would say is,
if he's doing this right, is the American consumer. Of course, what President Trump would say is, if he's doing this right, and the European
maker of Ozempic, for example, decides that its next factory should be in Syracuse, New
York or Atlanta, Georgia, then American manufacturing just gains some new jobs and the people buying
that Ozempic are not going to be hit with that 50% tariff.
Yeah, you could theoretically think that might happen over time, but in the interim, you've
got that 15% tariff on the Ozempic that's coming into the country from Europe.
And so I think that the point that this is not costless is still worth emphasizing.
Got it.
So Gina, looking ahead, do we think that 15% tariffs are likely to be the template for
the next few deals that the president wants to achieve with countries that haven't reached
deals with the US?
I know that so far he has reached a deal with the UK, a very close ally, for 10% tariffs.
That's another framework.
It's not yet fully in force. With Vietnam,
it was a 20% tariff. Japan was 15%. And now we have 15% with the EU. Should we expect
15% or so to be the template for the rest of the deals with the rest of the world?
Yeah. So President Trump indicated on Monday in Scotland that something in the range of
15 to 20 percent could basically be the template, that we could see that applying pretty broadly.
And so I think that's interesting because it is not as punishing as some of the worst
rates that he had been threatening, but it's also obviously going to be a big step up for
many economies that were facing much lower tariffs than that. And so we're going to have to wait and see how all of that plays out. It's going
to be difficult to predict, especially because all of these changes are taking place at the
same time, which makes them a little bit harder to understand. You have to think about how
they interact with one another. But I think that the upshot here is we would see a pretty
significant change in the global trading system.
And that's where I think I want to end this conversation by assessing exactly where we
are in Trump's second term trade war. And I think if we're being honest, it began on
Liberation Day with a fair amount of snickering from foreign ministers, from domestic economists, from political observers who saw his tariff strategy
this time as fickle and volatile.
There was a sense that the White House was perhaps a little out of its depth in this
trade war and yet here come the deals, especially the EU deal. And it's a capitulation from the other side and what looks like a victory for
President Trump and suggests that his strategy, which might have looked chaotic from the outside,
has been quite effective.
Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, having covered this closely for several months now, the strategy
was chaotic. But I think this idea that just because it was chaotic
meant it wouldn't ultimately achieve what President Trump
was trying to achieve maybe was a misreading.
And so we're still in the process
of finalizing these deals.
They could still fall apart.
But it does certainly seem to be the case
that President Trump is getting many things
that he had asked for.
And we've really heard from officials, including Mero Sefkovich, the EU Trade Commissioner,
who I had mentioned earlier, this idea that April 2nd, that Liberation Day, was sort of
this turning point.
You know, that we are not going back to the world as it was before April 2nd.
This is a new world and we need to adjust to it.
And adjust to what Trump wants when it comes to trade?
At least to some extent, yeah.
Well, Gina, thank you very much.
We appreciate it.
Thank you for having me.
We'll be right back.
Here's what else you need to know today.
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Prime Minister Netanyahu said there's no starvation in Gaza. Do you agree with that assessment?
I don't know. I mean, based on television, I would say not particularly, because those
children look very hungry. As he spoke, Trump stood next to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who said that the people of the United Kingdom
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It's an absolute catastrophe.
Nobody wants to see that.
And I think people in Britain are revolted, it seems,
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Meanwhile, two of Israel's best-known human rights groups
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It marked the first time that major groups inside of Israel have reached that conclusion.
And a gunman with an assault rifle has killed multiple people, including a police officer,
in a midtown Manhattan office building.
The shooting occurred at around 6.30 p.m., inside a building that houses the National
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to protect themselves from the shooter. As of Monday night, the shooter's motives and target
remained unclear.
Today's episode was produced by Diana Nguyen
and Rochelle Bonja.
It was edited by MJ Davis Lin and Lisa Chow,
contains original music by Dan Powell and Marian Lozano, and was engineered
by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsferk of Wonderly.
That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Bobauro. See you tomorrow.