The Daily - Has Manchin Doomed the Build Back Better Plan?

Episode Date: December 21, 2021

Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was always going to be the last Democrat to get on board with President Biden’s $2.2 trillion climate, social spending and tax bill. But the White House was confident that a compromise could be reached.On Sunday, that confidence was shattered: In an interview on Fox News, Mr. Manchin essentially declared that he could not support the bill as written, and he indicated that he was done negotiating all together.Where does this leave Mr. Biden’s signature domestic policy goal?Guest: Emily Cochrane, a correspondent for The New York Times, based in Washington.Sign up here to get The Daily in your inbox each morning. And for an exclusive look at how the biggest stories on our show come together, subscribe to our newsletter. Background reading: Mr. Manchin said on Sunday that he could not support the president’s signature bill, dooming his party’s drive to pass its marquee domestic policy legislation as written.Mr. Biden and his top aides have tried to salvage hopes of passing their domestic agenda, acknowledging that their only path forward is to repair a broken relationship with Mr. Manchin.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. This is The Daily. The Senate's crucial Democratic holdout, Joe Manchin, now says he cannot vote for President Biden's signature domestic policy plan, all but killing the $2 trillion bill. I spoke with my colleague, Emily Cochran, about why Manchin is backing out now and where this leaves the president. It's Tuesday, December 21st. Emily, I want to roll back the clock a little bit

because for the past few weeks, it's felt like Senator Joe Manchin was on the fence about this giant piece of legislation, historic climate and social spending bill proposed by President Biden. But the sense we all had was that this would somehow all work out for Biden, that this would all pass. So what happened? So we always knew that Joe Manchin was probably going to be the last Democrat to get on board. And the president had really turned a lot of attention, as you said, to getting him on board, inviting him to his house in Delaware to meet one-on-one phone calls, one-on-one meetings at the White House. At least one senator was joking that Joe Manchin probably had his own parking space by this week. But there was this confidence that because this was Joe Biden's plan, because these two men had

a friendship and an understanding from each having years of experience in the Senate that they would be able to work out a compromise. So the president thought he was close. All indications pointed to that. But by Sunday, all of that changed. What happened? Tell me about it. So I think most of the Capitol Hill press corps knew something was up when we saw Joe Manchin was going to appear on the Fox News Sunday show. Joining us now, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Senator, welcome back to Fox News Sunday. Good to be with clear, he either turns to a local outlet or he makes a single appearance on a national platform to send a message not just to his constituents,

but to Washington. And on Fox News, the first question, of course, is... So today, right now, what's the state of play? Well, Brett, you know, this is a mammoth piece of legislation, and I had my reservations from the beginning when I heard about it five and a half years ago. What is the latest with negotiations? And Manchin starts to go through the concerns

which we've all become familiar with over the last couple weeks. The inflation, it's not transitory, it's real, it's harming every West Virginian. He's concerned about exacerbating the inflation trends that we're seeing, and he's concerned about exacerbating the inflation trends that we're seeing. And he's concerned about adding to the national debt. $29 trillion.

He sees that as a huge crisis for the country. But then he goes a step further. If I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it. And I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. And Manchin essentially declares that he cannot support the bill as written and seems to indicate that he's done negotiating altogether. I've tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there.

And you could even see the host, Brett Baer, his eyes widened. And he asked again. You're done. This is a no. And Manchin confirmed. This is a no on this legislation. He was done. And did anyone in the White House know this was coming? And did anyone in the White House know this was coming?

His staff gave the White House and Democratic leadership about a 30-minute heads up on Sunday before he went on air. Wow. 30 minutes. 30 minutes before going on air to say that he's torpedoing the entire domestic agenda of the president of the United States. Correct. And how did Democrats respond to this news? I mean, Manchin has just very publicly pronounced this massive piece of legislation essentially dead. They were incredibly frustrated and angry. His objections have already shaped the package as it stands. Programs have been cut.

The size has been cut down by more than a trillion dollars. And most notably, the senator from West Virginia, a coal state, has weakened a lot of the environmental provisions that many Democrats had sought, particularly the more liberal members of the Democratic Party. John, it's now exclusively to react the man managing the legislation, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders of Vermont. What's your reaction? Well, I think he's going to have a lot of explaining to do to the people of West Virginia. I've been to West Virginia a number of times, and it's a great state, beautiful people,

but it is a state that is struggling. Bernie Sanders, he wanted to vote on the Senate floor. If he doesn't have the courage to do the right thing for the working families of West Virginia and America, let him vote no in front of the whole world. He wanted Manchin not only on the record with his words, but with his vote against the bill. In obstructing the president's agenda, he is obstructing the people's agenda. I was listening to his interview earlier today and he said it's a mammoth bill. You're right.

It's a mammoth bill to address mammoth hurt. And then you see Ayanna Pressley, one of the most liberal members of the House, say that Manchin had essentially confirmed her fears and had, in essence, justified her vote against one of Manchin's priorities, a bipartisan infrastructure bill that became law earlier this year. That was not a vote that I took lightly, but I had great concerns, and I take no joy, and those fears playing out in real time. As part of the push to get the liberal votes

he needed for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, President Biden essentially told liberal lawmakers that he would ensure that this bigger package, this Build Back Better Act, would get through the Senate and also become law. But she and other liberal Democrats had feared that once that bill became law, once the money for roads, bridges, broadband, and highways became law, that Joe Manchin would turn around and oppose the bill that they had wanted to see that carried their priorities for climate change, public housing, and support for families.

By decoupling these bills, that we would cede all of our leverage. And that had everything to do with my credible concerns based on lived experience with Senator Manchin changing the goalposts continually. Which is exactly what's playing out right now. Biden made a promise to these more liberal Democrats, and now Manchin is making that promise nearly impossible to fulfill. So how does the White House respond to Manchin's interview? The White House is clearly taken aback. This was a moment.

Up until this morning, the White House made it seem like they were confident that Manchin would eventually come around. Now the gloves are coming off and the White House is ready to fight Manchin publicly. They furiously hunker down and write a lengthy and sharply worded statement from Jen Psaki, the press secretary, that Biden gives his approval to go out. It essentially says that Joe Manchin has contradicted what he has privately told the president and told White House staff. And she continues to say that just as he has, quote, reversed his position on Build Back Better this morning, we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word. Now, those comments seem pretty matter-of-fact

from people who feel that they have been betrayed and taken aback on a huge priority. But from Joe Biden's White House, where a former senator has taken such care to respect the negotiations and the relationship with a current senator, it's a huge moment. The gloves essentially are off from this White House. But there have been indications that things had gotten brockier even before Manchin went on Fox and made these comments. What do you mean? What we learned was one of the biggest problems was the child tax credit, a huge priority for most Democrats. Back when they passed the pandemic relief bill earlier this year, a key component of that bill was this expansion to monthly payments for most families with children. And Democrats wanted to use this huge social policy plan as an opportunity to extend that program even further. But we began hearing that Manchin

had a lot of issues with how it was structured in the bill. Some people said that he wanted to leave it out altogether. And publicly, he has acknowledged that he's uncomfortable with how many people are receiving the payments. So what you've learned is that Manchin was really never on board with some of the key provisions that the White House and congressional Democrats were trying to negotiate. It really seems that despite these public comments from the president saying that he would get everyone on board with this framework, that the negotiations were continuing

and they were productive and ongoing, that at some point there was a disconnect. But I'm still confused about the timing of this. I mean, if this had been an ongoing issue throughout this negotiation, if we know that Manchin wasn't thrilled about the package for so long, why did he blow things up now? Well, on Monday, Manchin gives us an indication of why this is happening now. Senator, you said, if I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it. And I can't vote for it.

Back in West Virginia, he goes on a local radio show. Can you explain to the people of West Virginia why you are, in fact, against it? Well, Hoppy, let's start from the beginning, way back when... And he talks about not only the concerns that we've known for a while...

You know me, always willing to work and listen and try. I just got to the wit's end and they know the real reason what happened. They won't tell you and I'm not going to because... But he talks about his frustration with this pressure campaign to get him to move

off his position. What do you mean? What's the real... Basically, and it's staff. It's staff driven. I understand staff. It's not the president. It's the staff. And, the bottom line is there was there was there basically. And it's staff. It's staff driven. I understand staff. It's not the president. It's the staff. And they drove some things and they put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable.

They know what it is. And that's it. And he directly calls out White House staff for how they've handled the negotiations and actions that he calls inexcusable. So you're saying the president's staff was putting out, I don't know, was generating criticism of you that finally pushed you to the brink? Is that what you're saying? I'm just saying that, bottom line, I knew that we could not change.

It was never going to change. It never could change. Manchin doesn't explicitly say what White House staff did, and he's really careful not to put the blame on President Biden himself. But I think the context is clear here. This is a man who has dealt with a massive pressure campaign that has only escalated in recent weeks. The only thing I'm saying is this. I'm not blaming anybody.

I knew where they were, and I knew what they could and could not do. They just never realized it because they figured, surely to God we can move one person. Surely we can badger and beat one person up. Surely we can get enough protesters to make that person uncomfortable enough. They'll just say, okay, I'll vote for anything. Just quit. Well, guess what? I'm from West Virginia. I'm not from where they're from, and they can just beat the living crap out of people and think they'll be submissive, period. So by the time you get to the end of this radio interview, do you get the sense that Manchin is just really finished with this bill? I think the main question for me after that was, where do Democrats go from here? Can they salvage this legislation? Can they salvage this legislation?

Can they salvage this priority? We'll be right back. So, Emily, we have Manchin bailing on this bill in a really public kind of nasty fight between the White House and Manchin. And now the question seems to be, what is happening with Biden's signature between the White House and Manchin. And now the question seems to be, what is happening with Biden's signature domestic policy goal? Is it really dead?

I think it's safe to say that it's stalled and Democrats are not going to give up. Regardless of Manchin's comments, this is a signature piece of their agenda. This bill contains legacy items that so many of these lawmakers have worked their entire careers to achieve. Many see this as their last chance to really effectively address climate change. There's universal pre-kindergarten. There's an expansion of health care for millions of Americans.

These are not items that Democrats are willing to walk away from just yet. What are the options before Democrats right now, though? So there's about three options that come to mind. The first one is to essentially overhaul how this legislation is structured. Over the last few weeks, and again in the interviews we saw over the last couple days, Manchin has been pretty clear about the conditions for his vote. He wants guardrails on some of these new programs to restrict who can receive the new funds and how they can be spent. He wants to see

attention paid to lowering the national debt. But if Democrats do that, will progressives like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez still be on board? I think that's an open question. I mean, part of the reason Democrats structured the package the way it is now is to avoid having to cut out priorities for members when they have such slim margins. It Chuck Schumer says that he's going to have a vote on a revised version come next year. You have Nancy Pelosi saying she's not deterred at an event in San Francisco. is in the White House briefing room talking about how these two men are longtime friends and they're going to work like hell to get this done. And you have top lawmakers already beginning to discuss what programs could be extended for longer in a smaller package. Okay, so that's the first option, keep negotiating the overall package. So what's the second option? keep negotiating the overall package. So what's the second option? So another option is to break down the package and pull out individual proposals and pass them as standalone bills. But that presents a whole series of separate complications. You know,

right now, Democrats are using this complicated arcane process known as budget reconciliation to pass this legislation through the Senate and avoid a filibuster. But if you break down this bill, which is something people have raised, you likely would have to move those chunks through the regular process in the Senate, which means you would need Republican support. And that, in essence, would likely send Democrats back to square one, right? Because the reason they broke down this package into just two pieces was because they pulled out everything Republicans could support from President Biden's agenda and threw that in the bipartisan infrastructure bill. So far, there's little indication that any, let alone 10 Republicans, could get on board with these proposals as written. Right. So that sounds not particularly likely. So then that brings us to the third option.

What is that? So on Monday, we saw progressives frustrated, angry, feeling betrayed, start to talk about pressuring President Biden to use executive action to help deliver on some of these proposals, to help just bypass the legislative process. That also comes with its own challenges. For one, there's a short shelf life for executive action, for executive orders. How many times have we seen Obama-era rules overturned by the Trump administration and then overturned by the Biden administration? Even now, some of the executive orders and executive mandates have been sort of snarled up in the courts because they've been challenged and that's delayed their implementation. So it's

a way around the legislative process, but it may not be as effective as Congress passing a law. And I mean, broadly, that would be a real reversal from Biden's overall pitch to voters, that he could be the negotiator-in-chief, so to speak. Exactly. This is a president who pitched himself to voters as a dealmaker, as someone who could leverage nearly four decades of experience in the Senate, two terms as vice president, into deals with at times a fractured party and at times with Republicans. And right now, his party is at odds. His party is largely at odds with one member and looking to him to deliver on a promise he made that he would be

able to get all of his party on board. It strikes me that a failure with this legislation has huge implications for President Biden and for the Democratic Party. What does a failure for this bill mean for Biden right now? I don't think you can deny the fact that it's a personal and political blow to someone who ran a campaign promising to bring people together to end the gridlock and deliver on campaign promises that have really gone unfulfilled for years now. You know, this legislation was already stalled before Joe Manchin said he was done negotiating it as written. There were procedural hurdles. There were policy debates that had to be resolved with other lawmakers. It was far from finished. You put that on top of voting rights legislation,

which is also stalled in the Senate because Republicans have filibustered it. And then you look at his polling numbers, which are hovering in the low 40s and have been for some time now. And the backdrop to all of this is the pandemic and the president's promise to really conquer the virus being undercut by a rapidly spreading variant, which is spiking across the country and appears to have reached Capitol Hill, where we've seen lawmakers with breakthrough cases. Wow. Yeah, it just feels like it's just spiraling. That's right. And I think that's a concern you're hearing from a lot of Democrats right now. Voters gave them, albeit a narrow majority, but gave them a majority in the Senate, the House, in addition

to the White House. They need to deliver on those promises if they have any hope of hanging on to those majorities, which right now they're really concerned about between redistricting the poll numbers and so many stalled elements of their agenda, Democrats are really looking for something to take home to voters and show what they can deliver, to show that they can deliver on these promises, improve people's lives in the middle of the pandemic. Right. And that is all now in question. Exactly. You talked about these very slim margins that the Democrats have. And I'm wondering, does this moment tell us something about the state of the Democratic Party right now and what exactly that margin really means? really means? Look, there's always been, especially in recent years, this tension between the moderate and liberal wings of the party and which direction it should go and how far. And this is just the

latest instance in that. In the Senate in particular, in an evenly divided Senate where Republicans are often unanimously opposed to things, it is worth noting that all 50 senators who caucus with Democrats have held together a decent amount this year. I mean, Vice President Harris has set a record for the number of tie-breaking votes in recent history between administration appointments, legislation, and judicial nominees. Most notably, the caucus held together with Joe Manchin, with Kyrsten Sinema, with every vulnerable moderate up for re-election to pass $1.9 trillion worth of pandemic relief in March. That is a massive bill in any circumstance, but particularly when you were dealing with unanimous Republican opposition

and couldn't spare a Democratic vote. But this could be the instance where the ambitions are just a little too much for a majority where you have no room for error and you need the vote of every member. Joe Manchin said that himself today. He said the leadership was operating as if they had 55 or 60 Democrats, as opposed to 50. Right. Fundamentally, the math there doesn't really work. Exactly. 50 is a really unforgiving number in the United States Senate. Emily, thank you. Thank you for having me.

We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus now accounts for more than 70% of new cases in the United States, according to federal estimates released Monday. Two weeks ago, health authorities said the variant accounted for just 1% of U.S. cases. Officials now say the variant spreads two to three times as fast as the Delta variant, which had been most common until now. Omicron is already surging across the Northeast. Reports of new coronavirus cases in New York have shot up more than 80% over two weeks. Meanwhile, on Monday, in response to the spread, Rhode Island, Washington, D.C.,

and Boston, Massachusetts all added mask or vaccination requirements for indoor spaces. Today's episode was produced by Rob Zipko, Diana Nguyen, and Stella Tan. It was edited by M.J. Davis-Lynn, engineered by Chris Wood, and contains original music by Marion Lozano. Our theme music is by Jim Brumberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.