The Daily - How Long Will Europe Support Ukraine?

Episode Date: June 30, 2022

At the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European leaders painted the battle in stark moral terms, imposing harsh sanctions against Russia and talking about President Volodymyr Zelensky as a hero.But as the war drags on, different conversations have taken place behind the scenes to consider what Ukraine might need to give up to achieve peace.Guest: Matina Stevis-Gridneff, the Brussels bureau chief for The New York Times.Want more from The Daily? For one big idea on the news each week from our team, subscribe to our newsletter. Background reading: Countries in the Group of 7 face dueling pressures: Penalizing Russia while easing the economic pain at home.Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France are expected to visit Ukraine on Thursday — but they may face a tense reception.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. This is The Daily. Over the past few days, Western leaders at the G7 summit in Germany have publicly recommitted themselves to supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. But behind the scenes, European officials are beginning to have a very different conversation about how the war ends and what Ukraine might have to give up to get there. Today, my colleague Matina Stevis-Gridnev on the change underway in Europe and what it means for the future of the war. It's Thursday, June 30th. Matina, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, remind us how European leaders reacted.

Well, within hours of the invasion, European leaders convened an emergency meeting here in Brussels to figure out what to do in response. And I remember in the flurry of activity that they had to all rush to Brussels from their country. So the meeting started quite late and sort of quite unusually, they met in complete telecommunication blackout. So they didn't have their phones or any other devices in the room with them. or any other devices in the room with them. And in that meeting, President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader, joined the EU leaders by teleconference. And it was, by all accounts, a really remarkable moment.

He was in a bunker wearing this green T-shirt that he's become famous for and was very emotional and said, this may be the last time you see me alive and I need your help because this isn't just a fight for my country, Ukraine, it's a fight for Europe. And based on what my sources told me, this was a message that really resonated and moved European leaders to tears. Good morning. Early this morning, Russian troops invaded Ukraine, a free and sovereign country. After that meeting, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, held a press conference. We condemn this barbaric attack. It is President Putin who is bringing war back to Europe. And she really sort of leaned into this idea that this fight wasn't just sort of Russia being aggressive over territory. It was about something much bigger than that.

Russians' target is not only Donbass. The target is not only Ukraine. The target is the stability in Europe and the whole of the international peace order. And what became clear from my conversations with sources at the time was that this was the moment where this sort of moral clarity was instilled within European leaders, that this was a fight for good. It was a fight not just to support Ukraine, but it was a fight for Europe and Europe's future against an aggressive Russia. The European Union stands with Ukraine and its people. We will continue

to support them. Ukraine will prevail. Thank you. And can you lay out specifically what the EU leaders decided to do? From that point on, in really an unprecedented display of unity, EU leaders put in place the most far-reaching, the most expansive economic sanctions against Russia that the bloc has ever taken in its history. They start unplugging the very deep and complex economic relationship between Europe and Russia, which runs in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And they do this just in the course of three months, ultimately banning imports of Russian oil, a measure that was considered unimaginable because Europe so depends on Russian oil for its industry and for its economic engine.

These are very, very difficult decisions to make, not least because the European economies are already on shaky ground at the back of COVID. We have high inflation, high energy prices. And so sticking together to take these measures is additionally difficult. And yet the Europeans do it because they are really quite unwavering in their support of Ukraine against Russia. And of course, in those days as well, Ukraine was winning, right? I mean, all of these battles, we thought Russia would be the conqueror, but it wasn't. And Ukraine really became this kind of little engine that could country in the war. Exactly. And I think Europeans really admired that and were inspired by that.

Watching the underdog sort of hold its own and defend itself against sort of aggressive, massive Russia was very inspiring for a lot of Europeans. It also was completely outside expectations. I remember in the early days, people said Ukraine would fall in two days, and it just didn't happen. But of course, as the war went on, Russia starts to concentrate its energy on the eastern front, where it makes a lot of advances, and it starts taking territory. And Ukraine starts to struggle and lose lots of soldiers and really is having a hard time at this point in the war. So as this shift starts happening, what are you hearing from your sources? I think with the way the war evolved,

exactly as you described, European leaders that were first in the sort of trance of decisiveness and emotion to make decisions, they begin to slow down. The costs of the war to them begin to crystallize. This is an incredibly costly endeavor for the Europeans. costly endeavor for the Europeans. The support, military support, resources supporting Ukrainian refugees, but also the cost of the sanctions against Russia in terms of energy prices and rising inflation. These are huge, huge costs. And the war is dragging on for longer than they had anticipated. And I start hearing from European leaders, but also less senior people working on this day in, day out, a sense of fatigue, a sense of wanting to regain control of the future, a reticence to continue carrying the costs for the war in Ukraine, continue carrying the costs for the war in Ukraine and an eagerness for some predictability to be restored and ultimately for some kind of peace. I recently had a conversation with a top

European diplomat and he said to me, my people won't sacrifice jobs for the Donbass. A real punch, a real way of saying, I'm not going to see my economy decimated so that Ukraine can hold on to its eastern flank. So what you're saying is some European leaders want to shift the conversation away from military support and towards a pause in the fighting, basically some kind of peace. How is that conversation unfolding? Well, that's the thing, Sabrina. I mean, for a while, European leaders weren't really having an open conversation about it.

And why is that? Well, I guess it's not seen as diplomatically polite or correct. It sort of goes back to the beginning of our conversation that the sort of moral and rhetorical framework around the war was this fight between good and evil. And that worked in favor of European politicians who were rallying voters and rallying their own resources to support Ukraine. And they really invested in that kind of dichotomy. Right. It's hard to go against good. Exactly. It's hard to go against that thing that you call good and noble and worthy and suddenly say, well, it's still good, but it's a bit complicated. That nuance is very difficult

to capture publicly. And we really saw a test case of that earlier this month when France's president, Emmanuel Macron, went on the record and said that he would like his country to play the role of a mediator to Russia in the future. And in order to bring Russia back to the negotiating table at some point, humiliating Russia in Ukraine must be avoided. And the response to that statement was really brutal. The Ukrainian foreign minister, for example, said that it sort of brought humiliation against France itself and any other country that would call for avoiding humiliating Russia. So that sort of showed what a delicate discussion to have in public this is. But still, that discussion has intensified in recent days. How so? Well, for example, a top advisor to the German chancellor just this past week went to a public event and spoke more about why people should be concerned about Germany's future relationship with Russia. We've also been hearing from diplomats who are becoming more exasperated, sort of somewhat frankly sounding fed up with Ukraine's constant demands for more support, especially more weapons and so on. And when will this stop? These are not the types of words you would hear from European diplomats' mouths just two months ago.

So does all of Europe feel this way? two months ago. So does all of Europe feel this way? No, not at all, Sabrina. Not all of Europe agrees that the conversation should be changing. On the contrary, Poland and some other Eastern European countries, especially the Baltic states, these are countries that either have borders with Russia or a lot of shared experience of having been annexed in Soviet times and so on. They are squarely behind Ukraine. They sense Russian aggression so much more closely and existentially to themselves, and they are not prepared to abandon Ukraine. They want to continue fighting for exactly the same goals as Ukraine. However, even the bigger countries we were talking about earlier, they're not suggesting abandoning Ukraine or permitting it to just sort of drift and be surrendered to Russia.

That's not their goal. I think the better way of framing it is that they would like to shift the conversation to be able to talk about pausing the war. the war, bringing Zelensky on a conversation about where he might be prepared to draw the line to not govern some of Ukraine's territory for a while so that they can focus on consolidation and focus on making some peacetime efforts as well. Okay, and if that new conversation is going to be about winding down the war and potentially losing territory. How willing is Zelensky to have that conversation? Well, he's sort of ready to have it in a sort of abstract sense. Like, for example, this week, he said at the G7, the summit of the largest developed economies, he dialed in and said that he wants the fighting to be over by winter. But he also said that he wants more

support from his Western allies. He wants them to adopt more sanctions against Russia. He wants them to give him more weapons to continue fighting. So it's not entirely clear that he means that he wants to end the war and therefore he'll give up territory. In fact, he seems convinced that there's still a path to victory for Ukraine. That he can win this thing. Exactly, as long as he continues to get really vital military support from the Europeans and the Americans. And he doesn't also want to send the message out

that while he's fighting the war, he's also talking about a ceasefire. He's saying, I'm watching Russia taking over my country. I'm not going to be talking about peace. I'm going to be fighting. Additionally, Sabrina, it does seem he's got his people behind him. I don't think the Ukrainian people, from what we understand, are prepared to stop fighting for the country. On the contrary, they want to keep fighting. And frankly, they're ready to keep dying to fight against Russia. Okay, so if some European leaders are trying to shift the conversation, and Zelensky has no interest in having that conversation, it sounds like they're just stuck. Well, you're right that it's a delicate balance to strike, but the Europeans do believe they have something they can use to push the conversation forward. We'll be right back. So, Matina, you said that European leaders have something that they think will get Ukraine to temper their expectations about this war and start the Hiba peace.

What is that? Well, it's something Ukraine has long wanted, and that's the promise to eventually become a full member of the European Union. Back in 2014, when we had the Ukrainian revolution known as the Maidan revolution, people were flying European Union flags in their barricades as they tried to get rid of a leader that they saw as a Russian stooge. in Ukraine's history because it was a public expression of their firm belief that they belong with Europe, with the West, and ultimately with the European Union and against Russia. And honestly, Sabrina, just mere weeks ago, that very concept seemed highly, highly unlikely. Why? concept seemed highly, highly unlikely. Why? For a number of reasons. One of them being that Ukraine was seen as completely unready to start negotiating joining the EU. That's a process that takes years anyway. But Ukraine was seen as very corrupt. Its economy was seen as quite immature, its institutions, its courts, all of these important things that

European Union members focus on reform to eventually join this bloc. Ukraine was just seeing as too far behind in that process to even aspire to becoming a candidate. But at the end of last week that's exactly what happened thank you so much i can be very brief because this is a very defining moment and a very good day for europe today um i warmly congratulate president zelensky they're being given EU candidate status. There can be no better sign of hope for the citizens of Ukraine. And what will candidacy actually mean for Ukraine? Well, look, Sabrina, it is a milestone, an important milestone, but it's mostly symbolic. They're not going to really become a fully fledged member of the European Union anytime soon. Of course, the countries all have to do homework

before moving to the next stage of the accession process. Normally, that process lasts around 10 years, and those are 10 very difficult years. They are focusing on reforms of sector by sector of the economy, upgrading the infrastructure, really investing in reforming democratic institutions and making them function well to align themselves with the principles and the laws of the European Union. And it strengthens the European Union because it shows once again to

the world that the European Union is united and strong in the face of external threats. Thank you so much. And so it can be a very long road. It could last longer than a decade, frankly, in the case of Ukraine, considering its starting point and the fact that it's still a country at war. But it does mean that this is a real promise for Ukraine, that it is part of the European Union family, that it will one day become a fully-fledged member of the EU. And in the course of that promise, it will receive funding. It will receive a lot of support from the European Union with expertise, things like economists and lawyers who can help Ukraine improve its policies and its institutions. And just overall, Ukraine would just be so much more firmly tethered to the European Union system and standards.

Right. I mean, all of these things, really, you're describing stuff that would almost force a conversation about rebuilding, right? Because the benefits are about building roads, doing infrastructure, that type of thing. Absolutely. And there's a real sense here in Brussels among experts as well as politicians and diplomats that that's where the Europeans would like the conversation to be heading when we talk about Ukraine. They would like to be talking about reconstruction, investment, rebuilding, supporting Ukraine, more about the stuff that happens during peacetime and less about the war. So what does Zelensky think about all of this? Well, he obviously thinks it's extremely significant. In fact, he said it's one of the most important decisions

for Ukraine in its 30 years as a state. But for him, that great development doesn't at all take away from the urgency and the pressing need for Europe to keep sending more weapons and more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine. He clearly still demands those longer range missiles, for example, that he thinks can keep Ukraine on a path to Ukraine. He clearly still demands those longer-range missiles, for example,

that he thinks can keep Ukraine on a path to victory. So appreciative, though he may be, of being given candidate status for the European Union, he's still very cognizant that he's fighting a war right now and needs more weapons right now. And one thing foreign policy experts and diplomats point out is that Zelensky does still have one very important card to play that would get him both more time to fight and could get him to convince Europe to give him more weapons. What is that? What's that card? Well, Sabrina, there's something really interesting happening right now in Ukraine, What is that? What's that card? started and because of the war, millions and millions of tons of grains have gotten stuck in these huge storage facilities in the port of Odessa. All the while, this shortage of grains is about to cause a famine in East Africa, is causing global food prices to rise.

prices to rise and there is a real global effort underway to find a way to release that grain from the port of Odessa and get it out onto global markets and the Europeans are just desperate desperate to support that effort but the thing is operationally speaking this is going to be really really difficult to get the grain out of Odessa. And the reason is that the port of Odessa has been mined. The Ukrainians have placed mines all along so that they can protect themselves from a potential Russian attack. So in order to open safe corridors for the grain to leave the port, the Ukrainians will have to remove those mines. But in the process, of course, Ukraine would become vulnerable to a possible Russian attack.

So if Zelensky were to demine the port, actually putting his country at risk, and in doing so sort of help Europe and the rest of the world in this grain rescue mission, he might be able to get the Europeans to move closer to him on some of his goals. In other words, I help you with the grain, you help me with more weapons, or give me more time to fight. Exactly. Matina, from everything you've laid out here, even with this grain rescue mission, it seems like the Europeans are holding most of the cards.

They're the ones with the weapons and the funding, and they're getting impatient. So given how much Ukraine is struggling in the east, it just seems like the momentum is moving toward finding an endgame in the war. Yeah, I mean, I think that's right, Sabrina. I think that, sure, there may be a few more chess moves ahead of us in the next few weeks and months, but unless something really, really dramatic changes in the battlefield, the conversation is only going to be going one way,

and it is probably going the way most Europeans want it to go, which is reconstruction and some form of peace. But there is a wild card here, and that's obviously Russia. Any negotiation will have to involve Ukraine and Russia. And we don't really know if Russia is at all interested in stopping fighting. We don't know if they need to, if it has reserves, if it has the military capability to continue fighting. What we do know is that whatever happens and whenever it happens, Europe will have a role to play. Russia will want the European Union to lift some sanctions, to come to the negotiating table. And so ultimately, I think

what we're looking at here is not a neat sort of quick peace deal, rather is a sort of prolonged conflict and prolonged diplomatic and political activity that will probably go on for a really long time. Matina, thank you. Thank you, Sabrina. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Wednesday.

Good afternoon. NATO leaders have just taken decisions to transform and strengthen our alliance at this pivotal time for our security. NATO's Secretary General announced a new vision for the Western Security Alliance, for the first time singling out China as a strategic, quote, challenge. Today, NATO leaders took the historic decision to invite Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. Speaking in Madrid at a gathering of Western leaders, Jens Stoltenberg also announced that the alliance was extending formal membership invitations to Finland and Sweden. The move paved the way for NATO's most significant enlargement in more than a decade,

as the alliance sought to respond to a resurgent and bellicose Russia. It is a good agreement for Finland and Sweden, and it is a good agreement for NATO. And... Moments ago, R. Kelly was sentenced to 30 years in prison. This is a significant outcome for all victims of R. Kelly, and especially for the survivors who so bravely testified about the horrific and sadistic abuse they endured.

A federal judge in New York sentenced former R&B singer R. Kelly to 30 years in prison. Last year, Mr. Kelly was found guilty of sex trafficking and racketeering in what authorities said was a scheme to lure minors into sex that went back decades. With the aid of his fame, his money, and most importantly, his inner circle, R. Kelly preyed upon children and young women for his own sexual gratification for decades. He continued committing his crimes for almost 30 years and avoided punishment. Until today. At his sentencing hearing, several of Kelly's victims addressed the court about the effect that that abuse had had on their lives.

These are voices of mostly black and brown women and children that were heard and believed and for whom justice was finally achieved. This is a victory for them, for justice, and for future survivors of sexual assault. Today's episode was produced by Ricky Nowetzki and Rob Zipko, with help from Will Reed. It was edited by John Ketchum and Larissa Anderson. Contains original music by Marian Lozano, Dan Powell, and Rowan Nemisto. It was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lansford of Wonderly.

That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.