The Daily - How Two Generals Led Sudan to the Brink of Civil War

Episode Date: April 24, 2023

Sudan was supposed to be moving away from military rule and toward democracy. But over the past week, the country has been thrown into violent chaos as two factions battle for control.Declan Walsh, chief Africa correspondent for The Times, explains how an explosive rivalry between two generals turned into a catastrophic conflict.Guest: Declan Walsh, the chief Africa correspondent for The New York Times.Background reading: In the days before fighting erupted, American and British mediators held out hope that crunch talks could defuse the tensions and even steer Sudan to democracy.Here are the latest developments in the conflict.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Over the past week in Sudan, a closely watched plan to create a democracy has instead turned into a deadly civil war. Today, my colleague Declan Walsh on the personal rivalry at the center of the conflict. It's Monday, April 24th. So Declan, describe the scene in Sudan's capital over the past few days. Well, Michael, it started for me with a text message.

It was last Saturday morning. I was at home. I got a message from a friend of mine in Khartoum, which is the capital of Sudan. And the message said, war has just erupted in Khartoum. And then he went on to explain that his house is about 400 meters from a military camp in the city that had come under attack. And he sent me a clip of a recording he'd made out the window of his house.

And the clip went thud, thud, thud, thud with gunfire. And I guess that was the starting gun for what has become this crazy descent into violence that has consumed the capital of Sudan and spread across the entire country. Within the hours that followed that, everything moves incredibly quickly. There is fighting around the presidential palace, the headquarters of the military. At the international airport, passengers are taking cover on the ground of the terminal

because there's fighting and bombs outside. You get warplanes that start quizzing over the city, firing rockets and dropping bombs. And you get these small street-to-street battles flaring everywhere, in residential neighborhoods, on the main bridges that cross the Nile and the city, everywhere. And over the last week, this tempo has continued. We have been hearing very loud gunfire and shootings all over the city of Khartoum. And in the middle of it, you've got millions of citizens

who've been trapped in their homes, cowering against this violence. Now we stay without electricity, without water, without bread, without anything. So we need somebody to help us, please. Slowly running out of food and water. Now we need somebody to help us, please. Slowly running out of food and water. Now we are imprisoned in Khartoum, in this situation. And in recent days, trying to figure out whether they should be trying to escape the city. And at the heart of this conflict are two figures.

There's the army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a man called Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan, better known by everybody as Hemeti, who heads this much smaller but very powerful paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces. Now, these two groups are two branches of Sudan's military, and all the fighting that's taking place is between soldiers of these two rival units of the's military. And all the fighting that's taking place is between soldiers of these two rival units of the same military. So this is essentially a civil war within Sudan's military that is playing out in a very painful way across the capital city, which sounds absolutely terrifying. I'm trying to think of the equivalent in a place like the US. And all I can imagine is

something like the army going to war with the Marines in Washington, DC, and that would be nightmarishly awful. Absolutely. It's just as bad as that. I mean, the great tragedy of it, Michael, is that, you know, this was the moment when Sudan was supposed to be moving away from military rule. And instead, the country finds itself in what everybody feared was this nightmare scenario, tumbling into a civil war. So how did we get to this nightmarish place? And how do these two generals fit into that story? Well, Michael, to understand that story and how these generals fit into it,

you've got to go back to 2019. into it, you've got to go back to 2019. That was when tens of thousands of Sudanese massed at the gates of the country's military headquarters. And eventually forced the ouster of the country's ruler of 30 years, Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Women started to have more rights because the hated morality police was disbanded. Artists were making revolutionary art. There was a whole new political movement that sprang up. You know, it was this euphoric moment

where millions of Sudanese thought that after decades of isolation, they were going to turn a corner. And the extraordinary thing is that these two generals, General Burhan and General Hamdan, also known as Hemeti, up to this point, they're among President Bashir's closest henchmen. And then at the moment of the revolution, they turn on him. They help to kick him out from office. And then as the country moves through this period of dramatic change, they're at the heart of it. They say that they want to be part of a new Sudan, and they say that they're going to help to shepherd the country towards free and fair elections. And what exactly is the role of these two generals in this transition from autocracy to what is supposed to become a democracy?

Well, they're both members of something called the Sovereignty Council, which is this body with civilian and military leaders that was supposed to be overseeing the country during the transition to democracy. Burhan was the senior guy. He's the head of the military, which is this institution that has dominated Sudan. Personally, he's this decorated elite general. He's often seen pictured with a row of medals and a stiff bearing. And then you've got Hemeti, who's this kind of like upstart figure. He established himself by running a militia, which was known for its scorched earth tactics during the genocide in Darfur in the 2000s, that militia eventually morphed into the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF for short,

which is the paramilitary group he heads now. And through the RSF, he has really risen through the ranks of power in Sudan, amassing huge amounts of both wealth and influence. So on this council, General Burhan, in his position as head of the military, acts as the chairman and effectively the head of state during this transitional period. And Hemeti, who is also a member of the sovereignty council, is considered to be the second most powerful person in Sudan. So somewhat improbably, both of these generals, despite being originally associated with this autocrat who so many people in Sudan rebelled against, it is these two generals who end up being entrusted with a transition to democracy. So how does that go?

Well, for a little while, it seems to be going pretty well. You've got consultants flying in. You've got a lot of people who are saying they want to help this transition go along. And the revolution in Sudan brings in a lot of Western and regional countries who say that they also want it to succeed. So they send billions of dollars in aid. There's like up to $50 billion in debt relief that is promised to Sudan. And why was that?

I mean, why was this transition so important to these outside countries, especially in the West? Well, for several reasons. Sudan is the third largest country in Africa. It had been isolated for decades under the former dictator al-Bashir. And particularly by the United States, which had placed the country under sanctions. So I think that for the US, they wanted to turn a page, a new chapter with Sudan. But more broadly, this is this huge country. It's very strategically located on the Red Sea. And frankly, for Western countries, at this point, they're seeing other strategic competitors in Africa. The Chinese are moving across the continent.

Right. The Russians are starting to establish themselves. And I think a lot of countries wanted to make sure that in this very fragile moment of transition for Sudan, that they were the ones who were going to be influencing how it would end. Right. We've talked a lot about this on the show, especially when it comes to an adversary like China. The U.S. wants to make sure that its influence is greatest on some of these African countries. That's right. And what the U.S. is selling in Africa often is democracy.

Okay. So what happens next in this journey of these two generals towards what is supposed to be a democracy? First of all, we've got to realize that it's not easy. Sudan, after 30 years under Bashir, is basically a broken country. And it's got this very sort of underdeveloped, fractious political system. So the civilians in the military really struggle to run the country together. The civilians are demanding accountability for prior abuses under the military, including a massacre of pro-democracy demonstrators which had taken place just after the revolution and was blamed on both General Hemeti and General Burhan. And that starts to ratchet up the tension between these two sides. Those tensions build and build. And after about two years in October 2021, these two generals, General Burhan

and Hemati, come together secretly and they mount a coup and seize power for themselves, pushing aside the country's civilian prime minister. They put him under house arrest and eventually, actually, he ends up leaving the country. So these generals are completely reneging on their pledge to bring Sudan into democracy. In fact, they are blocking that journey to democracy. So what happens next? Well, straight away, protesters flood back on the streets, determined that the dream of democracy that seemed to be so close, they're not going to let go of it. The economy starts tanking because the West pulls the dollars that it promised as punishment for the coup. And then slowly, slowly, behind closed doors, cracks start to form between these two generals themselves.

And eventually, they turn on each other. We'll be right back. So Declan, why did these two generals end up turning on each other? What is that story? Part of it is just a simple power struggle. You know, it's a classic issue. Two bosses is always a bad idea in any organization. And it had come to the point in Sudan where even though Burhan was still technically the head of state, clearly Hemeti was positioning himself to one day rule the country. He starts moving around the country, trying to behave a bit like a politician. He's meeting with tribal leaders. He's dishing out largesse, things like Toyota Land Cruisers,

as a way of buying their favor, showing them that he's serious. And that starts to create a friction between him and his technical boss, General Burhan. He sees himself really as the bearer of the values of this very powerful institution, and starts to see Hemeti and his politicking and his paramilitaries as a threat to his own power, and it's something that the rank and file of the military don't respect. They chafe against it. They think that these guys are a bunch of upstarts who need to be put back in their place. So this junior upstart, Hemeti, despite running a much smaller force in the military, is clearly starting to challenge his superior, nipping at his heels in a way that I'm sure if you are Burhan is becoming very agonizing. That's right. It's becoming clear that this arrangement of two people running the country is starting to become untenable.

And at the same time, the situation of the country itself is getting worse and worse. It's becoming harder and harder to run it. There's violence erupting in far-flung parts of the country. These street protests just go on and on. Every week, they're out clashing with the police. And so things kind of stumble along until last December, when Hemati and Burhan came together again and more or less agreed to throw in the towel on their own coup. Under a process that had been negotiated by a whole host of countries, including the U.S. and Britain, they signed this deal where they say, on April 11th, the fourth anniversary of the ouster of Bashir, we will hand power back to a civilian government. Wow. So suddenly a transition to democracy is now back on track. At least that's how it looks. But there's one outstanding issue,

which is this. How, under a new transitional administration, are these two generals going to bring together their two forces and unite them into one army? Because everybody realizes for Sudan to have any sort of stable future, it's just not realistic or tenable for it to have two rival armies. So they need to resolve that question. And it becomes incredibly difficult because Hemeti understands that if his group, the rapid support forces, is effectively subsumed into the main army, he's nobody. So he says, it's going to take us 10 years to bring our armies together. Burhan and the military say, you know what? I think we need to do it in two years.

And this becomes this huge divide between the two of them. How are they going to resolve that question? And at the same time, their aides start to trash each other in public. They're throwing shade themselves. Twice, Hemeti is locked out of meetings that ostensibly he should have been at in the presidential palace by Burhan's guards. And on the streets of Khartoum at night, residents start to notice that convoys of soldiers are filtering into the city from both of these groups. Troops and armored vehicles are rolling in and they're taking a position at these military camps that are dotted around Khartoum. And these camps are marking each

other. They're like soccer players on a field. It seems where there's an RSF camp, then there's going to be a military camp close by. And it quickly becomes clear that as this political negotiation is going on, both of these guys are bolstering their military forces for what everyone hopes at least is just a way of increasing their leverage. But of course, it's a little bit like in a movie. If you introduce a loaded gun in an early scene of the movie, there's always a danger it's going little bit like in a movie. If you introduce a loaded gun in an early scene of the movie, there's always a danger it's going to go off later. And ultimately, that's what happens in Sudan. So ultimately, what gets us to this point

is this existential question of whether one of these men is going to lose a tremendous amount of face and power by losing their status as a military leader. And in the face of that prospect, these two men start to plan for what sounds like war. Absolutely. You're absolutely right. You know, I was there just a month ago, and I saw for myself just how bad things had become between these two leaders. Everyone I met in the cafes, speaking to politicians, the main topic of conversation was the crashing relationship between these two generals and how it was going to be resolved. And then a couple of weeks later, the fighting started.

Right. Which I think brings us to that text you got from your friend saying war has begun. And to this moment we're in now, these absolutely terrible scenes of violence that you described in the Capitol. Where exactly does that fighting stand at this moment? It's concentrated in the center of the Capitol. That's where both of these sides are juking it out. The military is pressing its main advantage, which is that it has an air force and Hemeti does not. Our reporting indicates that the military's focus at this point is effectively to

take out Hemeti. They are trying to track him, his phone calls, any other information they have. And when they find a location where they think he is, they are pummeling that location with bombs from warplanes. So their calculation, it seems, is that if they can cut the head off the snake of the RSF, that it will fall apart. And then we've got the paramilitaries on the other side who have weaved themselves into the fabric of the city, taking cover in buildings, carrying out their own assaults on the other side, who have weaved themselves into the fabric of the city, taking cover in buildings,

carrying out their own assaults on the military. And they've also made it clear that they see this as a fight to the death. So there is destruction everywhere. And in fact, over a number of days, we've seen General Hemeti being the first person to propose a ceasefire in the evenings, Hemeti being the first person to propose a ceasefire in the evenings in order, he says, to allow for people to leave their houses and get food or water or for people to flee the city to safety. But it seemed that he might want to have, in fact, a pause for his forces to regroup under this absolutely terrifying onslaught that they're suffering in the Battle for Khartoum. this absolutely terrifying onslaught that they're suffering in the battle for Khartoum. So as you might expect, the general who runs the large army is doing better. But as these soldiers from these two units are waging this battle on behalf of their leaders, where, from your reporting,

are the loyalties of the people of Sudan, these civilians who it sounds like are caught in the middle of it, are they picking sides or are they just trying to get out of the way? You know, that's the crazy thing. Everybody I speak to says, this is not our fight. I think everybody recognizes that there's been bad behavior on both sides. And everybody blames these two leaders for allowing this difference between them to escalate to the point where it is propelling the country into an all-out war. So I don't think either side have a great deal of popularity. But for most people right now, this is just about survival. And in the last couple of days, people have been

strategizing about how they can get out of the city. And that's possibly going to be the next stage of this crisis. Potentially hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions of people displaced from their homes in the middle of Sudan and pushed to other parts of the country so that they can leave these two guys, these two generals, to duke it out between themselves and see who's going to win. Well, at some point, one of these two branches of the military will presumably defeat the other. will presumably defeat the other. And regardless of whichever general prevails, I think we can assume that neither will readily give up power and put it into the hands of the people of Sudan and embrace democracy. So is the idea of democracy at this point in Sudan

and the hope for it doomed? It's in tatters right now. in Sudan, and the hope for it doomed. It's in tatters right now. The best laid plans of the international community, which has spent months trying to cajole these two generals to hand over power, that plan now appears to be effectively dead. Right now, people are trying to save their lives,

and they're trying to stop the fighting before it completely destroys the capital and the rest of the country. What might follow afterwards is really hard to say at this stage. There are many different scenarios, almost none of them very appealing for Sudan, about what might follow after this. But it probably just depends in the end of the day how quickly this will be over and how clean the victory of one side over the other might be. But we don't know that yet. It's just too chaotic to know. Declan, thank you very much. We appreciate it. Thank you, Michael. On Sunday, the United States, Britain, France, and China

began to evacuate diplomats and their families from Sudan out of fear that the fighting there could endanger their lives. The evacuations occurred during what both sides described as a 72-hour ceasefire to mark the end of the holy month of Ramadan. Despite those pledges, deadly clashes continued throughout the weekend. those pledges, deadly clashes continued throughout the weekend. So far, the fighting has killed at least 400 people

and injured about 3,500. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. In a highly anticipated decision on Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the abortion drug Mifepristone will remain widely available

in a decision that rejects two lower court rulings that sought to restrict its access. The decision only impacts the drug's availability in the short term, as the Supreme Court considers a bigger legal challenge to its legality from a federal judge in Texas who has ordered that it be banned. But the ruling suggests there is little appetite among the justices to endorse that approach. Only two of the court's nine justices disagreed with the decision, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas Today's episode was produced by Muj Zaydi, Luke Vander Ploeg, and Claire Tennesgetter, with help from Mary Wilson and Ricky Nowetzki.

It was edited by Anita Bonnageau and Mark George, contains original music by Dan Powell and Marion Lozano, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.