The Daily - Inside The Fall Of Syria’s Brutal Dictator

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Syria has been controlled by one family for more than half a century who ruled by repression, devastation and violence.But about two weeks ago, the regime began to falter, and then over the course of one night, it collapsed.Carlotta Gall, a senior correspondent for The New York Times, discusses the fall of Bashar al-Assad and what comes next.Guest: Carlotta Gall, a senior correspondent for The New York Times, focusing on the human aspect of wars and civil strife.Background reading: Live updates: The rebels who toppled Assad face stark challenges in Syria.With Assad gone, a brutal dictatorship ends. But the new risks are huge.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

My name is Road Tandashi, I'm 26 years old, I'm currently in Homs, Syria. There are so many people on the streets, probably all of Syria, I'm not even exaggerating. Everyone's celebrating, they're singing, they're taking pictures, they're taking videos. What you're hearing right now are not bullets actually. They're just more like fireworks. People are just shocked that we actually got rid of the brutal government that we were under. There is just this peaceful feeling that you get that it's okay. This is over. It's over. It's the end of a 50-year-old oppression that tortured us, that took away loved ones from us.

We're all afraid that if we sleep, this might be a dream. This is a dream. From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily. Syria has been controlled by one family for more than half a century. It ruled by repression, devastation, and violence. But about two weeks ago, the regime began to falter. And then, over the course of one stunning night, it collapsed. Today, my colleague Carlotta Gall, on the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

And what comes next? It's Monday, December 9th. So Carlotta, there's been an absolutely incredible turn of events in Syria. We're talking on Sunday morning. Walk us through what happened. It has been the most incredible turn of events. In just 12 days, we've turned from what we thought was really a frozen conflict going nowhere to an uprising in this 13-year civil war.

Armed groups in Syria have reportedly attacked government forces in the western countryside of Aleppo province. It started with a small rebel group come up from the northwest of the country and very rapidly in just a matter of days, they took three cities. The Syrian army concedes it has lost control of large parts of Aleppo. Aleppo in the north, the second biggest city in the country.

And then they started to move south. Islamist forces are on their fourth day of a lightning offensive through several towns and villages towards Syria's fourth largest city, Hama. And then they kept going. Opposition fighters now on their way going south towards Homs, that then leads to the capital, Damascus.

This is when suddenly it seemed that they were ambitious enough to actually topple the government. And so by Friday, we knew that the capital was in danger. And Saturday, you saw reports of gunfire in the city. Syrian rebels are telling media outlets they've entered the capital city of Damascus. Then you saw these reports of the army leaving,

abandoning the airport, some of them abandoning their uniforms on the roads. And then overnight, Saturday night, suddenly, in a rush. And then overnight, Saturday night, suddenly in a rush. With the help of God, the city of Damascus was liberated and the regime of the tyrant Bashar al-Assad was toppled. The rebels took the state TV and they announced that they'd taken control of the whole of the capital and that President Bashar al-Assad had got on a plane and left the country. Long live free Syria.

To all Syrians, bring all their clothes. So it's really an incredibly swift movement of events from a total dictatorship to he's gone. I mean, it was just unbelievable really, like that this country suddenly was leaderless. Yes, and Syria has had the same leaders, the same family of leaders for 50 years, a very authoritarian family. Bashar al-Assad has been in power now, but his father was in power before him. And so they've ruled this country with an iron grip since the 1970s. So it's really a big deal. It is a big deal and I want to unpack it with you. So how did this forever regime in Syria

suddenly shockingly just disappear overnight? Where should we start to explain that? Well, this is the culmination of the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, when different countries started to rise up against the dictatorships. We saw it in Tunisia, and we saw it in Egypt, and we saw it in Libya. And Syria joined that run of protests, people daring to come out onto the streets asking for freedom, for democracy, for human rights, dignity. And Syria was the same as the others, but what happened in Syria was the government of Syria under Assad really cracked down, used violence against the protesters, but then did

mass arrests, interrogations, torture, disappearances, a lot of executions. And then some of the protesters took up weapons and it became an armed insurgency. And a civil war, essentially, the country was fighting each other. And then this sparked the introduction of really radical extremist jihadist groups. The most well-known and largest was Islamic State. It got very, very brutal in Syria. It has a brutal past, but this was something on a different scale. And then Assad doubled down, he gassed civilians in some of the war to take control back of some of the cities. Then millions were displaced,

fleeing the country, fleeing a lot into Turkey and Lebanon and neighboring countries and heading for Europe or anywhere they could. It was really a most ghastly civil war and by 2014 hundreds of thousands had been killed and wounded. At this point, who is winning that war? Well that's the interesting thing. Assad for all his brutal repression is actually barely hanging on. And that's when we started to see other countries that have stakes in Syria start to get involved. Right, okay, so that is also when Syria starts to get really

complicated. So lay that out for me, Carlotta, what starts to happen? Yes, so ISIS was a huge concern, especially for the West. They were already in Iraq and they were expanding their territory and they were recruiting massively. So that's when in 2014 American troops entered the fray, particularly to fight ISIS and to repress this very, very virulent jihadist group that was obviously interested in attacking Western countries. And so what happened next? Who's the next big player that comes on the scene? So there were actually two big players that came in the scene and they came in on the

side of Assad. That was Russia and Iran. And Russia came in in a very big way with serious firepower, planes, jets, fighter bombers, weaponry and a lot of advice and tactics. And they brought ships into the ports and so on. And then Iran had the foot soldiers on the ground. There were a lot of them who came in from Iran, but they also had Hezbollah, very experienced, very accomplished fighters who came in from Lebanon,

and the Iranians sent in advisors and military advisors who ran the campaign. So they really did a great amount of actually retaking territory for the Assad regime. Danielle Pletka And why do Iran and Russia enter the war like that? Anjali Mehta So they, for both Iran and Russia, it was very important to see the Assad regime survive. Russia had long had relations with Syria regime survive. Russia had long had relations with Syria, going back right through the communist times. And so they wanted to be able to keep their access to the Mediterranean, their trade, their diplomatic influence. And Iran had an equally important reason to be involved. They couched it in religious terms, but it was very clearly a geopolitical desire to have good relations

with Syria and influence, but also to have a very important land bridge through Syria to their allies, Hezbollah, the militia in Lebanon. So for those reasons, they also wanted to see Assad survive. So bottom line, Syria becomes this kind of cauldron of geopolitical rivalries. Absolutely. And those two powers, Iran and Russia, are propping up Assad. He's in power, but he's got all these rebel groups around the country pushed to the edges and it's since 2016, it's been like locked. So how do we get from that deadlocked civil war to the rapid toppling of Assad that everybody

just watched unfold? So the biggest change, of course, was the two main backers of Assad, Russia and Iran, became massively distracted by other events and weakened. It was the wars in other countries that caused this. Russia is engaged in a really tough war in Ukraine, and they've had to move troops out of Syria to ploy them in Ukraine. They've expended all their efforts and men and money and weapons on that war. And then the second war is obviously Israel's fight, first in Gaza, but then in Lebanon

against Hezbollah and the attacks that Israel has meted out on Iran in Syria. They've done a large number of airstrikes on Iranian elements, but also particularly Hezbollah, who had been the foot soldiers for Iran to help Assad's Syrian army, they were really hit hard in the recent months. That was very debilitating for the Iranian effort to shore up Assad. to shore up Assad. And so the moment those things were happening, the Syrian rebels were obviously watching and noticing. They could see that the resistance was weak, that Russia and Iran were distracted and struggling, in fact, in both their wars.

And that's when they pounced. We'll be right back. So who are these rebel forces who just toppled Assad? Tell me about them. So they're a hodgepodge of lots of different groups. But the main mover and the main group behind this offensive is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It's called HTS for short in the West. Its name means the Organization for the Liberation of Syria or of the Levant. It's a very Islamic, very strict actually, organization. It comes from the jihadi tradition and it's designated by many countries in the West and the United States as a terror group. And who leads it?

Who's in charge? It's led by a Saudi-born Syrian. He's in his 40s. He's called Abu Mohammed al-Jalani. That's his non-de-gare, his chosen name for the war. He lived in Saudi, then he grew up in his teens in Syria. He was a student when he then left to join the fight against America in Iraq. Oh, wow.

And he joined Al-Qaeda. And then he got arrested by the US forces in Iraq. And he spent several years in Bukka jail, which is a famous prison camp where a lot of the al-Qaeda and Islamist militias were detained and kept and of course it became a great meeting place for them all because they were all in there together for many years. So that is his history. That's really interesting because it probably means he had some pretty serious jihadist credentials but he clearly got out of prison. What did he do next? What we know is that he eventually returned to Syria and he set up an al-Qaeda affiliated group at the beginning of the civil war. And then he was among the groups that were gradually

pushed back as the Russians and the Iranians helped the Assad government take control. The rebels were pushed back into the northwestern corner of Syria in Idlib province, and that's where he ended up in 2016. And then something really interesting happened. They're down and out, they're under bombardment, they've really got their backs to the wall. And he, as a leader of his group, he starts reforming. He changes the name of his group, and then gradually he breaks from al-Qaeda, and he turns himself into a Syrian nationalist leader. And it's been a steady

thing since then, over the last eight years. And we're all watching to see is it a big PR push or is it really serious? Yeah, that's what I want to know. I mean, can one be former al-Qaeda? Like how does that even work? Well, I think it is interesting. In Syria, I think, you know, I followed jihadi groups all over the world and a lot of them, they talk tough talk for several reasons, to look strong and to look aggressive, but

also because they think it ticks some boxes where they can get support and financing and so on. And I think the Syrian groups were just the same. I've never met Jolani, but I've asked many people who have met him. And some will say he's a diehard. Others say he's more pragmatic. And I actually went four years ago on an embed with HTS to their stronghold in Idlib. Wait, Claudia, you went on an embed with HTS to their stronghold in Idlib. Wait, Claudia, you went on an embed with HTS? I did, several times in fact,

because there were some things they decided they needed to tell the Western world. So they invited journalists like me, I was based in Istanbul, to come and see, and the trip includes always a long lunch and a sort of long political discussion. I mean, it's not quite a long diatribe, but where they explain what they're about and what they believe in.

So what was it like there, Carlotta? They are super Islamic and you could feel they are authoritarian. They controlled everything, they controlled where we went. We could talk to whoever we want, but they were very cautious to be in charge. And of course, between the lines, we could understand that these guys rule it, but they are of their society. There's not much freedom of speech, certainly in the media, but there were other things that I think people felt

they were running quite a good ship. And how were they for women? How was life for women there? Often an indicator with Islamic regimes. To tell you the truth, when you go to Idlib, most people are destitute. So quite frankly, they won't talk to you about Islamist rules. They'll talk to you about they haven't got enough food for their kids. But we did reporting on some of the women who felt very threatened by this group and felt they had to leave.

There are people who were arrested. There were people who were beaten. There's possibly some people who were disappeared. So it's a pretty ruthless group who were set at first on gaining complete control. And now they're trying to reform themselves and appear softer. But their first years, while they were establishing control, they were pretty ruthless. So it sounds like not quite Taliban-like, but some hard edges. Yes, I would say that, exactly that.

So in other words, very unclear what this group could mean for the future of Syria or even really if it's going to be the future of Syria. Absolutely. It's very fluid. We know that Assad has left the country and we've seen that Jalani has arrived in Damascus. He's made a statement to the nation. He's called on his troops to behave, not to pursue people, not to destroy things. But I think it's very clear that for him, it's the liberation from the Assad regime that was the main aim, and he's achieved that. So now, what does he do next? There are a lot of different groups. They're sort of under an umbrella of his, but of course, in these sort of events, you often see different groups turning on each other for power. So that's the $64 million question of what happens

further. But he does seem to be someone who has the sternness and the charisma, possibly, to manage that, but we'll have to see. And he's really not been out there a lot all these years. He hasn't done a lot of interviews. So we don't even know how much the Syrians will like him and accept him. So everything's up in the air at the moment. So that's Jelani, but of course there's this geopolitical earthquake that this is causing, right? That is happening at the same time.

Absolutely. And this is a very powerful, important country in the Middle East, a crucial place on the map, if you look at it. All the countries around are going to be deeply concerned and want to influence. You've got Turkey and the North involved already with troops inside Syria. You've got Iran of course hurting and pushed out but already saying it wants a role in Syria in the future. And then you've got Israel actually taking action. Just this morning we learned that they've moved in troops and taken control of a buffer zone on its border with Syria. And then Russia is also saying it still wants a role, although that remains to be seen if the jihadis would accept that.

And then of course the United States, which has 900 troops still in Syria and has made some strikes just to remind opponents not to come and attack them. So it's a huge, as we mentioned before, a huge cauldron of geopolitical rivalries and that's going to be something to try and work out and decipher in the coming days and weeks. It's like all of the cards have just been thrown up into the air.

I think you're right, yeah. And that's also for the Arab world, this was so interesting and important because they were steadily moving towards acceptance of Assad staying in power. And now that's been completely turned upside down. Carlotta, I want to just pause for a moment and think about what just happened from the perspective of Syrians. I mean, as we said, this place has literally been under this regime for about half a century. That's just changed. That's an incredible moment for the Syrian people. It's like an entire country just suddenly gets to wake up from this long sleep or something. And I would guess that while that is potentially hopeful,

it's also a really perilous moment because as you and I both know, when dictators collapse, violence and chaos can ensue. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, for me and for a lot of the Syrians I've been talking to the last week and a half, it's the sense of liberation, the relief, the excitement, and the most compelling has been the release of people from prisons all over the country.

There have been extraordinary scenes of people staggering out and some of them barely able to walk but so happy. And some of them have been in prison for more than a decade, including children who've been imprisoned with their mothers. So that's a huge release for the entire country and that's why they're all celebrating on the streets at the moment. But of course, the Syrians are saying this is a great relief lifted, but we're also very fearful. I think for Syrians, you know, we've had 400,000 people die in this 13-year civil war. 14 million people left the country as refugees abroad. And the fear, of course, is everyone that it's going to go back to that or more or different ethnic groups

God forbid start fighting each other, you know Whether it's for power in a city or in a whole region or over oil fields or wealth So that's what the Syrians fear they they're telling me we're celebrating today But just for one day and then we me we're celebrating today, but just for one day, then we're very worried. So we have to see what goes forward. We don't know what's going to come next. Carlotta, thank you.

Thank you. On Sunday night, President Assad surfaced in Russia. Russian state media said that Assad and his family had been granted political asylum there. Meanwhile, the U.S. military carried out one of the largest series of airstrikes in Syria in months, saying that it would not allow ISIS to take advantage of the collapse of government there to regroup. We'll be right back. Here's what else you should know today. In his first sit-down broadcast network interview since winning re-election, President-elect Donald Trump outlined an aggressive plan for the early days of his second term.

You promised to end birthright citizenship on day one. Is that still your plan? Yeah, absolutely. Speaking on Meet the Press on NBC, he said he would try to end automatic citizenship for children of immigrants. We'll maybe have to go back to the people, but we have to end it.

And he said he would pardon supporters who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. First day? First day. First day. Yeah, I'm looking for a day. You can issue these pardons. These people have been there, how long is it?

Three or four years. Right. He said that members of Congress who investigated his role in that attack on the Capitol, like Republican Liz Cheney, should be put in jail. He said he would not direct his new attorney general or FBI director to pursue the matter, but indicated that he expected them to do it on their own. Today's episode was produced by Claire Tennesketter, Carlos Prieto, and Rachelle Bonja, with help from Lindsay Garrison.

It was edited by Patricia Willans, with help from Ben Calhoun, contains original music by Marian Lozano, Dan Powell, and McCusker and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsvier of Wonderly. Special thanks to Yara Bayoumi. That's it for the daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.