The Daily - One Strongman, One Billion Voters, and the Future of India

Episode Date: May 9, 2024

India is in the midst of a national election and its prime minister, Narendra Modi, is running to extend his 10 years in power.Mr. Modi has become one of the most consequential leaders in India’s history, while also drawing criticism for anti-democratic practices and charges of religious persecution.Mujib Mashal, the South Asia bureau chief for The New York Times, discusses what we might see from Mr. Modi in a third term.Guest: Mujib Mashal, the South Asia bureau chief for The New York Times.Background reading: Narendra Modi’s power keeps growing, and India looks sure to give him more.The brazenness of Mr. Modi’s vilification of India’s Muslims has made it clear that he sees few checks on his power, at home or abroad.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily. India, the world's largest democracy, is in the midst of a national election, and India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is running to extend his 10 years in power. Modi has become one of the most consequential leaders in India's history. But he is also one of its most controversial, drawing criticism for anti-democratic practices and charges of religious persecution. Today, my colleague, Mujib Mashal, on the many Narendra Mod's and which one India will get in his historic third term. It's Thursday, May 9th.

So, Mujib, you are covering India's elections, which is, of course, an enormous undertaking. It's a country of over a billion people, so the election takes weeks. And we are, right now, in the middle of that process. So, first of all, where do things stand now in the race? Well, it's hard to know exactly right now. There's so much noise around the campaigning and both sides, Prime Minister Modi and his opposition are pitching their side. But most observers expect Modi to be the favorite in this race because of his own popularity. This race has become a test of the popularity of a leader who has been in power for 10 years and who has a confidence that even if his party is struggling, his popularity can lift up their chances. And that's what I want to talk

to you about, his popularity. I want to understand how that fits with the other thing I think of when I think of Modi, which is his authoritarian tendencies. And the last time you and I talked, it was after a political assassination in Canada that had been traced back to Modi's government. So how is it that Modi has managed to become such a prominent, durable figure in India, in the world's largest democracy. So I've been in India for over three years now. And one of the central questions that has fascinated me is exactly that. He just has this enormous grip over the imagination of what is a hugely diverse country. over the imagination of what is a hugely diverse country, the number of languages, the number of ethnicities, the number of religions, you know, across 1.4 billion people and in a huge geography.

But he just has this talent of making them feel, one, making them feel united as the new India that he imagines. And he's put himself at the center of reimagining what it means to be Indian in this age. And how is he doing that, Mujib? A lot of it comes from the fact that he knows this country very well. He's traveled, he's spent time across the districts. So he understands, I think, the pulse of this country very well. But he also does it by using technology, by using both old and new methods, by constantly painting narratives that project India as this one nation on the march. And one of the ways he does that is through this monthly radio show that he has. A monthly radio show, kind of like FDR's

Fireside Chat? Sort of, but a lot more personal in the way that he draws on his own story that most Indians are very familiar with. That here's a man very much like them. That he comes from a really humble economic background. You know, his father was a tea seller. Also in India's rigid caste hierarchy, he is not from the top communities. And also that he has dedicated his life almost entirely to what he says is his nation, the national cause. He doesn't have a family. He was married at one point, but he sort

of separated from his wife and he never talks about it. He always projects himself as a bachelor who around the clock only thinks about India. And this comes into the radio show. The range of topics that he discusses. From health to food and nutrition to transport to technology, it's almost like telling the listeners that all his time is spent thinking about all the issues that could pertain to their lives.

He's got advice for them. He's got thoughts for them. And the way he does it is in a very personable way. is in a very personable way. Where he has callers connect, where he jokes, where he references the places he's visited in the country.

He makes it very relatable across a huge nation. And he goes into issues that might be very local to a community. And then he tries to connect it to a national narrative. And then he goes to issues that are very cross-cutting. For example, exam preparations, right? This is a country that cares about its studies. And every year around the exam period, Modi becomes their favorite exam tutor. He does this on the radio show, but he does a special broadcast for exam preparation. exam preparation.

Where he sort of fills the hall with students and he gets up almost as a TED Talk speaker. He walks around with pointers. He walks around with that kind of confidence. and he knows that here are 16, 17, 18 year olds potential voters in the future. But even for their families, he is a man who tells them, hear it from me. As someone like you who has made it big, here are some of the things that worked for me. So he's basically connecting with the Indian people, kind of somewhere between like Oprah and Dr. Phil

on American television. Basically, basically, that actually might be a better reference than FDR in a way. Just the range of things that he addresses and the tone in which he does and sort of this hope of mobility, this hope of making it, right? He personifies that as well. And there's something hugely powerful about that. And he's very consistent in it as well. Since he rose to national power 10 years ago, he's barely missed an episode. Wow.

So every month he is in the years of this huge country, right? And wherever the information space moves, he wants to be there. Whether it's the billboards, whether it's the radio, whether it's the television, and especially social media, right? This is something that he understood much earlier than other Indian leaders. The value of social media across a country this huge to get your message, particularly a country

that is very rapidly digitizing, right? And a country that's so young. Exactly. A country that is so young, a country that's so huge, and a country that has access to cheap smartphones, cheap data. So he understood this very well. And in the past few years, he senses that some of the people, some of his potential voters might actually be shifting to these independent spaces of information, the YouTube show people, the Instagram influencers and all. And he wanted to be there. He wanted to make sure all of them project him and his image the same way.

So what did he do? Just a couple months before the election, he held this huge award ceremony for the influencers. Ladies and gentlemen, join your hands together for the influencer of the influencers, the OG, the GOAT, Honorable PM Narendra Modi. For two hours, he was standing on stage. And the best storyteller award goes to... And he was handing out award after award

to hundreds of influencers from across India. And the next category is Disruptor of the Year Award. While the hall filled with people who have millions of followers across these different platforms, all of them had their phones out recording Modi on stage. Will you give people a fitness mantra? You know, giving them a pat on the back, you know, dropping a little detail, having something relatable with each one of these young folks who came on stage

to receive the award from him you know so it's just somebody who is so sharp to latch on to every opportunity to connect with a pocket of audience. And that was on display. And this mood is for everyone. Just imagine the power of those hundreds of influencers with millions of followers across these platforms,

Hundreds of influencers with millions of followers across these platforms walking out of that hall thinking one of the most powerful men in the world not only had time for us, but he made us feel that he knew us. Right. And what they will do to then carry his message. And this is what a successful politician is, right? They connect with voters and they find people that can spread their message. But a successful politician is also someone who gives people a story about what their country is and who they are in it. They help people understand themselves as citizens. So what is Modi actually telling them? What is that story? Well, it's a story of India's rise. Think of a country coming out of, you know, a long history of colonial oppression, a foreign invasion. He is telling the same people that we finally found our footing, that we're being

respected on the world stage, that our economy is growing, that the prestige of what it is to be Indian now is changing on the world stage, that for the longest time the world treated us as this poor country where you had to send aid. Now, the world is treating us as a major power that can offer solutions. And again, the way he communicates this is very important. One of the things he did recently was to have Bill Gates over. Bill Gates as in Bill Gates? To have Bill Gates over. Bill Gates as in Bill Gates.

Bill, as in Bill Gates, as in for all, you know, intensive purposes in the Indian mind, the man who invented computers, right? And Modi's government actually released a full, you know, very heavily produced video to promote that visit and that conversation between Modi and Gates. Good morning. Great to see you. You know, these beautiful sort of video shots of drone footage and music and all of this. He shakes hands with Modi and they sit down for a conversation. But the body language in this conversation is very important. I'm just curious in terms of your journey of using, you know, PCs or phones or different types of software. Was there something that really drew you in or what's that been like? Bill Gates is asking a lot of the questions.

He's asking in English. Modi's answering in Hindi. And Modi is giving him the solutions, right? On technology, on sort of how do you spread technology to the villages? How do you sort of inject technology into simplifying governance? And what this is telling his audience is that I have brought India to a stage where the man who's associated with computers is coming to me for answers. Right, right. I'm the guy giving that computer

inventor the answers. Exactly, exactly. And again, that's a powerful thing, right? That if you were a village boy, you know, a teenager somewhere deep in rural India, and you watch this man in a suit asking the questions and you watch the man who speaks your language, giving him the answers and explaining to him how the world should work and what the solutions are to the AI problems of the world, what the solutions are to, you know, incorporating technology in agriculture. He is reinforcing the same narrative that I have made it far. I am clinging on to the identity

that is very Indian. And look, the world is coming for answers. That my country truly is on the top of the world. My country is on the top of the world, but my country is on the top of the world. My country is on the top of the world, but my country is on the top of the world on its own terms, in terms of holding on to a cultural identity as well. That my country can advance and sort of progress without necessarily letting go of its cultural values. And it could offer the world solutions in terms of technology and modernity. So Modi's very skillfully leveraging this Gates visit, right? He's using it to drive home his

central message, which is India's on top of the world. I'm on top of India. And even the inventor of the personal computer is coming to me for technology advice. So that's the story he's telling. Yes, but on the ground, it's a much more mixed reality. Yes, India's economy is growing, but it's an economy that is not helping lift up a lot of people, that it's a deeply unequal economic reality in this country. You've got the fastest growing economy in the world. It's become the fifth largest economy in the world. And yet, unemployment is a major problem. It can't generate enough jobs for its huge youth population. And 800 million people are dependent on government ration handouts every month. But Modi, in his sort of

control of the information space, and in his political cunning, he defines these handouts and rations as development. That look, you are getting help from the government, you're not starving. That look, you might not get a job, but you got a gas cylinder. Your mom got a gas cylinder. A gas cylinder, like a propane tank for cooking? Yes. And the political genius of it is in how he then follows up. He's created this huge welfare state where he uses resources from a top-heavy economy to give handouts to the poor.

And then after those handouts have been given, he's got a huge party apparatus that knocks on each door and says, remember that monthly ration of rice and dal and cooking oil that you got? That came from Modi. And in a lot of these places, his picture is on it. His picture is on this sort of government stores that gives the handouts. Interesting. Like the picture of his face. Yeah. The picture of his face. His picture was on the vaccine certificate that every person in this country got. He does not miss an opportunity to be in the face of every citizen of this country, to tell them whatever solution you're getting is from my end. Interesting. So he's essentially giving people these essential things, but he's taking pains to make sure that people really down to the household level understand that he's the one

giving them. His face is there. Like he's really branding it as his own accomplishment. Yes. And I think one part of it is his mastery of narrative building and communication. But the other part of it is the economic context of this country, that for the longest time, these sections of society that we talk about, what he's giving them is more than what they had before him. They were always so weak and so poor, and the state was failing them for so long that even a small ration handout a month is a sign of an improved state, is a sign of a changed India. And he drives that point home by the narrative he builds around it. That, hey, I've given you a little bit, imagine how much more I can give you if India keeps rising.

So it sounds like Modi has really found this very unique recipe to speak to this incredibly vast country. He's organized with his party machine and his face on aid, but he's also deeply appealing and present in almost every Indian's life. And that's kind of the textbook definition of a skilled politician. Yes, that's one version of Modi. But there's also another Modi, a more divisive, even dangerous Modi. And we've seen that side of him come out in recent weeks. We'll be right back.

So, Mujib, tell us what happened over the past couple of weeks. What changed over the past couple of weeks in this election campaign is all of a sudden Modi's rhetoric directly started targeting Muslims. All his life he spent as a foot soldier of a right-wing Hindu organization called the RSS. And the goal of that organization has always been to turn India into a Hindu state. The secular republic that India was created as in 1947 after the British left, they see that as unfair. So Mr. Modi comes from that kind of a background. And so in his 10 years in office, as Mr. Modi firmed up this vision of a Hindu first state, many of his policies were seen as discriminatory towards

Muslims, India's 200 million Muslim minority population. Beyond the basics of welfare, the state's sort of allowing Muslims participation in the political space, in the cultural space, has shrunk completely during his time. And Modi himself, in those years, would continue targeting of the Muslims, but in a very subtle way. He would make references to their clothes, he would make references to their choice of food. He had all these ways of referring to Muslims. But then he did two things. One is, he mentioned the Muslims by name. And then second thing he did was to define

the Muslims as outsiders, as infiltrators who don't belong here, who've intruded into his vision of the Indian society. He started saying that if his opposition comes to power,

they will take the wealth of the Hindus and they will give it to the Muslims. And he didn't just say wealth, land, property. He said they would take the women's jewelry. They would take the necklace that Hindu women wear as a sign of their marriage. So he went very specific to something that is very associated with honor and not just wealth. And then, as he repeated the point, the way these sort of, you know, populist politicians do, he threw a question to his audience.

A huge crowd at a campaign rally. And he said, do you want your wealth to go to the infiltrators? So he's kind of saying the quiet part out loud here, right? That Muslims are not actually part of this big national project, even though they are, as you say, 15% of the population of India. They are Indian citizens. So it seems like a pretty big deal that Modi himself would say this, right? I mean, why did he say this, do you think? We were all left wondering, why would he veer from a formula that had worked for him?

That others would do the dirty work of directly targeting Muslims, where he would just make subtle references, and that was good enough. Particularly in a moment where he projects himself as a global statesman, as somebody who believes in these democratic values. But I think the place where he made this comment, give us clues. It was in the state of Rajasthan in sort of northern India, this northern, more populated belt of India that is his stronghold. And within that state, there was talks that some of the Hindu castes were not happy with him. That there was discontent. And as a way of uniting the Hindu divisions within his support base, he has always united them against someone, against something. And that someone and something has consistently been the Muslims.

So despite his popularity, he's anxious about the margin of his victory and kind of resorted to this nasty form of nationalism to bring out his Hindu base, to kind of bring together those divisions. Yes, and it has worked for him in the past. This sort of Hindu-Muslim division, this fear of the Muslim, has helped him overcome his other moments of political weakness. But Mujib, just to play devil's advocate for a second here, I mean, isn't it possible that these things are all signs that he's actually feeling very secure? You know, that he's not just resorting to this to bring out his base, but that he's feeling so secure that he's able to just kind of wear this ethno-nationalism on his sleeve and do these very illiberal things because, you know, he's so powerful and popular that it doesn't matter? That's one possibility, absolutely.

That this is the peak of unchecked power. That I can govern this country and I can use the levers of power in any way I want, the institutions, and I can say whatever I want, that there will be no checks on it domestically. And we're seeing this. He's resorting to crackdowns on the opposition. He's resorting to throwing opposition leaders in jail. He is resorting to drying up the source of funding for his political opponents to kind of tilt the playing field in his favor. And there's also the security that internationally, beyond the borders of India, nobody will say anything at all because he's created the sense of his story, his power is so intertwined with the story and the power of this rising India. And for these outside countries who want deals with India, who want trade with India, who want transactions with India, he is confident that they will not criticize him, that they will not stand up and say,

you're crossing lines. Right. So, Mooji, we've been talking about Modi as a leader with just this wild popularity, in part because his vision of a shining modern India appeals to a lot of people. But there's also this darker streak, this Hindu fundamentalism that we've been talking about. And I guess the kind of amazing and confounding thing about India

and about Modi is that all of these things are true. So if you had to come up with a category for Modi, what would you say? I guess the fascinating thing about him is that he's not easy to label. One thing I've learned in my years of reporting here is that he's many things at once. He sees himself as someone who, after the founding fathers of India, right? After the founding fathers of this republic, he speaks of an ambition that no prime minister before him would speak of in the way of completely reshaping this country for the future.

this country for the future. But at the same time, he is someone who has demonstrated that he is amassing power around himself, that he is consistently brushing aside any checks on his power, that he has an ideology that does not see this country's entire population as equal, that that ideology has a vision of a first class citizen and a second class citizen. of a first-class citizen and a second-class citizen.

And which one of these many modis we see in the future, it's hard to tell. But in moments of tension and in moments when he is anxious, that darker side comes out more clearly. And the efforts at a visionary statesman that wants to pull up the entirety of this country to that sort of higher place that he has in mind ends up taking a backseat. Mujib, thank you.

Thank you. We'll be right back. Here's what else you should know today. On Wednesday. Well, hello, everyone. It's just another Wednesday on Capitol Hill. For the second time in less than a year, Republicans in Congress sought to depose their own speaker in the House of Representatives. But this time, the effort failed.

The attempt was made by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. House Speaker Mike Johnson easily batted it down. I want to say that I appreciate the show of confidence from my colleagues to defeat this misguided effort. That is certainly what it was. Johnson survived because Democrats came to his rescue. Johnson survived because Democrats came to his rescue. The vote to kill Greene's effort was an overwhelming 359 to 43. The Democrats' support allowed Johnson to avoid the messy showdown on the House floor that had led to the historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last fall.

Greene had threatened to make the move for weeks since Johnson pushed through a long-stalled $95 billion foreign aid package to Ukraine and Israel. In the end, her effort was largely symbolic. Greene was widely booed by lawmakers as she called up the resolution and read it aloud. And. They're going to Rafah. I'm not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, to deal with that problem. A day after the White House acknowledged that it had halted the shipment of 3,500 bombs

to Israel last week out of concern that they might be used on Jerusalem's planned assault on Rafah in southern Gaza. President Biden told CNN in an interview that he would also block the delivery of weapons and artillery shells that could be fired into densely populated areas of Rafah. Biden also acknowledged that American bombs had been used to kill Palestinian civilians. Biden's remarks underscored the growing rift between the U.S. and Israel over its war in Gaza. But it's just wrong. We're not going to supply the weapons and the artillery shells used. the weapons and the artillery shells used. That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.