The Daily - Thanksgiving With 'The Run-Up': Are Black Voters Leaving Democrats Behind?

Episode Date: November 23, 2023

Polls suggest that they are – and that Black voters’ support for former President Donald J. Trump, especially among men, is rising. Astead W. Herndon, host of "The Run-Up," convened a special Thanksgiving focus group to explore what might be behind those numbers. He spoke with family, friends and parishioners from his father’s church, community members and people he grew up with. It’s a lively conversation with real implications for what might happen if the 2024 presidential race is a Biden-Trump rematch. Because where better to talk politics than over turkey and an ample dessert spread?“The Run-Up” is an essential weekly discussion of American politics. New episodes come out every Thursday, and you can follow it wherever you get your podcasts. To get you started, here are a few highlights from our coverage of the 2024 race so far: An Interview With Kamala HarrisThe Pillow Guy and The RNC ChairThe New Terms of Abortion Politics

Hey, it's Michael. First, a very happy Thanksgiving to you from everyone here at The Daily. In addition to all of our listeners, one of the things we're very grateful for here at The Daily is our colleagues at The Times, across the newsroom and across the audio department. And so this holiday weekend, we're going to be sharing a couple of episodes from other shows here at The Times. Today, we're going to be sharing a couple of episodes from other shows here at The Times. Today, we're going to hand things over to our colleagues at The Run-Up, a weekly show about politics hosted by Astead Herndon, who brings us a very special and a very personal Thanksgiving episode.

Take a listen. Not to pick favorites, but Thanksgiving has always been my favorite holiday. So when I thought about the show this week, there was only one place I knew it could be. Hi. Home. Hey. Bob, this is Alisa. This is Anna.

Hi. This is on the run up. And we're so excited. Nice to meet you. Come on in. We're so excited. Hi. Thank you so much for coming. I wanted to come home with my colleagues and microphones in tow to do the one thing you're not traditionally supposed to do on Thanksgiving. Talk politics at the dinner table. Specifically, I wanted to ask my family and friends about one political question

that's recently been all over the news. The changing relationship between Black voters and the Democratic Party. The numbers are staggering. In a new poll of battleground states from Siena College and the New York Times, 22% of Black voters said they would support Donald Trump over Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch in 2024. That's compared to the 8% Trump carried nationally in 2020. Now, it's just one poll, but it comes after the 2022 midterms, where Black turnout was one of the Democrats' weakest points.

And anecdotally, it tracks with what I see in my own life. As Black people I grew up with, especially younger Black people and Black men, feel less and less tied to the Democratic Party. Some are more open to voting for Republicans, or not voting at all. So I decided to conduct a little focus group. Hi, everyone. So, I decided to conduct a little focus group. With a group of black voters I know very well. What's the food?

Well, the food is turkey. We have smothered chicken, which is a traditional kind of a thing. Smothered chicken with mashed potatoes. My mom and sisters prepared a feast. And we also have a beef roast. Low-key, very low-key. Yeah, yeah, just a little something slight, just a little turkey beef chicken. And a homemade dessert buffet for my sister Angelica. Now I can take the pound cake and the ginger molasses.

I'm curious about that. That you have your eye on that? Yes. Let's pray for the food. Lord, we thank you, Lord. And once my father blessed the food. Thank you, Lord, for Ested, the run-up. Thank you for all of the family, friends who are here tonight.

I pray you'll bless the food, sanctify it, purify it for the nourishment of our bodies. You turn the night over to me. And keep them in Jesus' name. Amen. Amen. To play a role I was familiar with. Yes, a reporter. But also, the family instigatorigator to ask a question that no one

poll can answer. Are Black voters really souring on Democrats? And if so, why? From the New York This is The Run-Up. We do a traditional thanks here at Thanksgiving. We're grateful to God for another year. And I want to take two minutes, and you could just shout out one word or one sentence of what you're thankful for, because I know everybody in this room this year, going to take the generic one. I'm thankful for life. Thankful for life. Thankful that I am seeing another year. About 30 people showed up to this dinner.

I'm thankful to be 70. Amen. Some friends, family, and people I've known forever through my dad's church. I'm thankful for growth, growing and expanding. I'm thankful for my right mind. I grew up in the southwest suburbs of Chicago, in a town called Flossmoor, around a lot of Black families that were pretty similar to my own. I'm thankful for life, health, strength, all of the above. Middle class, college educated parents, Black people who had left the city in search of

something better. And not too far from my house, my dad started a church, Hallelujah Temple. I got one. I'm thankful for peace. Hallelujah Temple. I got one. I'm thankful for peace. It's a smaller congregation that's much less uniform in terms of class and education. But it was always politically active.

And it's where I learned to talk about politics and ask questions about what people believe and why. I'm thankful to see everybody here. It's really amazing to see this collection of people. And it really matters to me that you all are represented in what we're doing about the election, because this is a show that's about giving dignity to people. And I think that's a value that you all taught me. So thank you. Most of the people here have been voting for Democrats their entire lives. And some people remember a time when Black people couldn't vote

at all. So I hope they could put this political moment in its necessary perspective. So as folks grabbed their dinner, I sat down at the dining room table. These were from a box. Well, that roast kind of melted your mouth too, though. their dinner, I sat down at the dining room table. My plan was to divide people into groups that corresponded with divisions that we saw within the poll. I started with a group of older Black folks, people who represented demographic that helped put Biden into office and that has largely stuck by him. So while these folks are historically reliable Democratic voters, I thought they could still help us provide important context

to what's been happening that's led to this point. Would you all consider yourselves Democrats? Yes. Why do you think Black people have voted for Democrats in historically such high numbers? Well, I think one reason, it seems like, and this is only my opinion, when you look at the Republican, it seems like they were in such a different bracket than what we were in.

In what way? Financially. Seemed like, you know, they were always on the top. And Democrat doesn't mean that we're on the bottom, though. But they just seem like they always seem so much higher than the Democrat. It seems like Republicans care more about richer people. And they are more concerned about staying rich and we staying where we are. You know, it doesn't seem like they ever want us to get to the plateau that we meet where

they're at. I think also in the Democratic Party, they have opened their arms to the point where made black folks feel that it's all inclusion. Although we might not agree with everything that the Democratic Party stand for, they don't discriminate against homosexuals or if you're poor, if you do have money. It's more of a social thing, whereas when you talk about the Republican Party, it's about self. And so it's like, how much more can I get? It was the have and have nots. And so with Democrats, it was always, it was a hope. You know, I think about Jesse Jackson, keep hope alive.

You know, and so the Democratic Party has always been, for Black folk, the possibility of doing something, if you will. For you all, like when you think about your time as a Democrat, what's the times the party has made you the most proud? Obama. Obama. Obama. Obama. And I think we all pulled together. That was the time that you really saw all of us as a race pull together to get him in. And we should be clear, like we're in Chicago. I mean, this was a place where it was specifically happening. What did it feel like in 2008 when that was happening? Do you remember how it felt for you? It was like we were in control. We had power, you know.

And when we go back to the civil rights movement, then we saw like a fulfillment of all they had worked for, you know. Yes, all they had worked for, you know. I remember you and I being the only ones at the church that thought he can win. Yeah. I put that on the record. I was right early, y'all. I can remember you and I arguing with your parents. Yeah.

So they was like, it's not going to happen. Black men, it's not going to happen. I was like, I was simply thinking Mike. And we were the only two saying, oh, he's going to win. He's going to win. And so I had to put that out there on the record. I appreciate that, Brother Reggie. I believe he was going to win. He's going to win. And so I had to put that out there on the record. I appreciate that, Brother Reggie. I believe he was going to win. I mean, because everybody was pulling everybody to go to the

poll. This was the biggest turnout that we have ever, they said they were taking people off the street. You know, you got to go vote. I'm wondering with Trump's election and the four years that came after that, did it cause you to think differently about the Obama years before that? Or were those separate events? I think they were separate. Those are separate. I think it was separate.

You know, in 2016, one of the reasons it did happen is because you saw a big drop off in some black turnout from 2012 to 2016. Even the last recent midterms, one of the low points for the Democrats in what was otherwise a pretty good year was that Black people don't seem to have the same relationship with the Democratic Party. Do you think the relationship between Black people and Democrats are changing? Or as Democrats, do you think maybe that's just one cycle or another, but this is a kind of connection that will last? I think it's about the generation that's, you know, doing the voting or not voting, you know, and then you have to remember, we were there, most of us, you know, during the 70s and the 60s, you know, and we were there watching all about, you know, the marches and everything, and they don't really know about that.

It's not being taught in school. You think this drop-off in Democrats might be a generational thing? Yes. If there was an issue that matters to you that you want Democrats to deliver on, what is it? Well, you have, of course, the economy, which they're looking out for.

And you have crime. And really... Do you feel like they're looking out for that? Well, I think that's the frustration. Most of them, they advocate for these particular issues, but the problem is you just don't see much of any change, any results. So that's what turns off a lot of people from politics. They just give up because apparently, even though they vote, it seems like their vote is not making a difference. So that's the struggle there. So sometimes it's about pushing your agenda, letting people know what you're doing, because you have another voice on the other side. Basically, they're screaming, saying the Democrats are not doing anything.

And they scream real loud. And of course, the louder they scream, that's the voice we hear. And ultimately, a lot of people believe that. So the Democrats really have to do a better job of basically vocalizing what they're doing, showing the results. But to answer your question, yes, I believe they're making an effort. But everybody at this table knows it's almost impossible to get anything done in Congress. And that's where the fight is.

And that's what it is, basically a fight. And if you don't have the patience to endure the fight, you give up. But I think we have to encourage, you talk about generation, encourage the next generation to stay in the fight. One of the things that comes up as we talk to people is they feel less and less interested in politics. Do you feel people backing away from the fight? It does feel like some of that is in the air. I mean, I won't call names, but you talk to certain young people and they didn't even vote. I say, how do you not vote in the presidential election? I'm an election judge and I've been one for years and I could physically see, you know, where the turnout was like null and void, you know. And that was both for young people and the older people. They were not coming

out to vote. A question I had was, do you feel proud to be a Democrat? Do you feel proud to be an American? Proud to be a proud American. I've been all over the world, man. I can tell you, that's the best thing going. American. Is everything great here?

No. Could things be better? Yes. The seniors, they price gouging on the medicine, and the rich are getting richer. It's like, how much money do you need? Do I feel proud to be a Democrat? I wish I could be an independent. But we really don't have representation in this region with independents so I have to go

other I could never be a republican especially now because of anybody that supported Trump and all the foolishness and lies that he told it's no no matter what your message is like even everybody on a ticket right now that's running you all supported him and he lied openly and you believed the lie and you supported him and you backed him so for me you could never get anything from me because of that and so I can't say I'm not going to say less than two evils but I will not because people

died for me to have this right I have to vote you know and so Democrat is the closest I can go right y'all thank you so much we're going to talk to some more folks but I really appreciate it You know, and so Democrat is the closest I can go. Right. Y'all, thank you so much. We're going to talk to some more folks, but I really appreciate it. Thank you.

Right? What they're getting at, a sense that younger Black voters have been turning away from Biden and the Democrats. That's supported in the data. Democrats that's supported in the data. In that New York Times-Siena poll, Biden's support among non-white voters under 45 plummeted. A group that he carried by nearly 40 points in 2020, he now led by just six. This erosion is one of the biggest reasons Biden's numbers look so bad right now. And it's giving hope to Republicans that they can win a greater share of Black voters in 2024. So, just as people were going back for seconds... I know a stead from school, I guess.

I know a stead from the church, but it's like family, you know. Kind of grew up together. His father is one of my mentors, yes, sir. I gathered a group of younger Black people at the same dining room table. Would you all consider yourselves Democrats? Yes. Have you always considered yourself Democrats? Yes. I'll ask this question the same question I asked to kind of an older generation before y'all. Why do you think black people vote

in such numbers for the Democratic Party? It's unique. Like among demographic groups in America, nobody votes for one party in this big of a number. Why do you think black people vote for Democrats so consistently? I think it's what you're taught kind of within your family, that this is what you are. And so you don't go any way different from it. So you're like, my mom was a Democrat, so I'm going to be that without really looking into the facts and finding out for yourself what you really want to be. I do agree with Danielle. This is like the household is Democrat.

But also there's a thought that, you know, like black people are not Republicans. It's just the bottom line. And Republicans are for the rich people. And you have all those tags along with being a Republican. And it's all about money and not service. This came up in the last one, too. And I thought it was really interesting because sometimes you see black folks say, I think people vote for Democrats because Republicans are racist. But that's not what the explanation you gave or the people last time.

It was that it's there for rich people. You think it's much more of a class thing than it is a racist thing? Yeah, it's beneficial to the higher class, those with more money. I think the Democratic Party focuses

more on our interests. The right to the Constitution, because we didn't always have rights. So the Democratic Party seems to focus more with our interests. You're saying there's an understanding that black people can lose rights

and there's something about the Democrats that seem like they're at least safeguarding some of them. And I think this is a thing I specifically wanted to focus on with this group. In the last one, we really talked about kind of the arc of kind of civil rights movement through Obama and kind of how they feel that sense of pride. I kind of want to think about like post-Obama and like what, how has that been in terms of shifting a relationship or has it shifted any relationship with Democrats?

I think about that high point of 2008, the hope for younger folks especially. Do y'all still feel like that? I know I've been let down by Obama. Do you hear me? I've been heavenly. Why? Why? I feel as though he could have did more for us. I feel as though he, specifically Chicagoans, that's where he come from. After seeing, you know, Trump and all that he did, it's like, man, Obama, you could have did the same thing. You could have been rogue too before your people. And the fact that he did not do it or even spoke towards doing it, it was disheartening.

And it affected a lot of the mentees that I got trying to push them to vote to even vote anymore. What do you mean? Like the young people that I'm trying to push to start back voting was upset at the movement of Obama. So they stopped voting altogether. They lost faith in the political system. There is a kind of unspoken thing about Obama era, I think it's kind of especially true in Chicago, that it wasn't meeting some of expectations.

But it's especially spoken in this group, and it's not spoken in the last group, right? They speak about just the dignity of him in office, about the power of having a black family in that place. What I hear differently from younger people is a, OK, what else? And that's not what I hear from you. What is the else? Democrats talk about blackness a lot more. They talk about race a lot more. That's not it's not clear to me that that's like what people want, but is it?

I don't know, but they definitely say the words more. I mean, if you're not like pandering and talking about hot sauce in your bag, I think if you're being like real engineering, I think people like can pick up on it. It's like, yes, you want to know that your interest is heard, but then I don't kind of like, maybe Biden, I think that was a lot of people's gripe that like, yes, you want to know that your interest is heard. But then I don't kind of like maybe Biden. I think that was a lot of people's gripe that like he was kind of just maybe like pandering. And then like when he was in office, it was like, OK, I got your vote. But then, you know, it went somewhere else.

I mean, it's talked about more, which is fine. You know, and so now the issue is before us. But we're still taking a lot of L's in a lot of areas with violence, police, policing, even education. So, yeah, we're talking about it. But then what? Because in this case, we're still on the losing end, if not in a worse state than before when it wasn't talked about. Because now that it's talked about, we're losing some of the ground that civil rights movement gained for us. So I just think that talking about it, yeah, it's good.

But now what? As a follow-up to the first question I asked about why do you think Black people vote for Democrats in such numbers, do you think that's changing? I mean, do you think the relationship between the Black people and the parties changing? The sad part about it is, yes. Even on my job, like, these younger, like, so you have more Black people that are on their own business, they're entrepreneurs. And so the benefit that they're seeing is they're always helping me financially. To vote for Republicans. Yes. And so, you know, what have they done for me?

You know, the Republican Party can give me these tax cuts and give me this and give me that. It boils down to like those type of issues. And then they look at the Democratic Party and they're like, well, Biden, I mean, look at this. We got all these immigrants. He ain't doing this. He ain't doing that. But it's always the plus for the Republican side because it's benefiting them tangibly. My fear is that a lot of young Democrats are leaning towards Republican because of the financial gain that they got during the pandemic, of course.

Yeah, those checks. Thank you. The checks. Yeah, those checks. Thank you. But my fear is the blindfold to what really is happening, like affirmative action. No one's saying anything about that. Ten years from now, we're going to feel that. You're going to see that in these jobs.

You're going to see all of that. But if we don't say anything about that now, that'll be a problem. Not to harp on the affirmative action thing, but I think it kind of, like, goes to your point, though, too, in, like, explaining. Because, like, that changed through, like, the Supreme Court. So, like, you kind of have to educate, like, the young people as well, like, that process. So then they're not once again disappointed in, like, our Democratic Party. Or student loans, right? Knocked down by the Supreme Court. But there's a lot of people holding it against Biden that he didn't make student loans go away, right?

But in Biden, like, he kind of ran on that. But I think maybe that's how he got a lot of the players. We're like, oh, student loans. But then we, all of us, like, didn't understand, like, okay, it could get blocked. And, like, what power does he really have? And then so a lot of people are disappointed in Biden because of that. They're like, if he runs again, I still have tons of student loan debt. So he's not getting my vote.

You're like, if he runs again, I still have tons of student loan debt. So he's not getting my vote. Our generation, and not everybody in this room, but we are more so about self. And what is it going to do for me? And so when they're looking at these candidates, it's really like, how do I benefit this? Instead of like what Chris said, thinking about 10 years from now, how this will affect us. We're thinking about how this is going to affect me right now. And right now it feels good because I got money in my pocket. But now here we are three years later and prices for gas and milk are $20. So we didn't think about how this would

affect us later on. We just thought, oh, this feels good now. Joe Biden is 80 years old. He's running for reelection. I get that like, I get the options of the choice. I'm saying, how do you feel about that? I don't know. Not I don't know. It makes me think about if something were to happen, then who am I looking at as next in line? So then it's like, you know. So it brings it to reality.

This is a good question, y'all. in line. So then it's like, you know, so it brings it to reality. The interesting thing for me is I had this whole plan, right? I had this plan of okay, Biden can beat Trump. Biden will run for one term and then Kamala would be next in line.

And it didn't happen that way. Kamala didn't. Kamala didn't. Kamala would be next in line. And it didn't happen that way. Kamala didn't. Kamala didn't. Kamala didn't. She did. What did she do? She didn't.

That's it. That's it. Period. Period. Everything is this real uncomfortable laugh at the end of every statement. And it just, part of it, part of it is that she wasn't used correctly. And part of it is who she is't used correctly and part of it is who she is. But you

thought Biden would be one term and he was setting up the next generation. I was not prepared for to be back here. This was almost like an impossible thought. We would never see Biden and Trump again. We just kind of thought we needed Biden for that

moment that he was our best shot of beating Trump. Specific to progressives, you know, like we think of the Bernies of the world. You think of like the kind of national progressive leaders. They've really struggled to win over black people. What is it about progressive politics that has somehow, at least at the top levels, not fully mixed with black communities? I think because a lot of black people are religious, and that's where a lot of us... What do you mean? Hey, be more specific. What do you mean? Okay, let's say women who want to have abortion. Progressive believes that that's what you can do,

but there are a lot of black people that don't believe that's wrong. The Bible say that's wrong. But you're taking away their power to choose. God didn't even do that to you. So for you to take away their power to choose, you just as wrong as them. You're being God to them. You know, we're in the same boat with this perspective, especially when you get to abortion. And it's like people are absolutely shocked to believe that I am saying that the woman should have a choice.

Like, it's like, can you be saved and say this? Absolutely. Because to your point, Chris, we all have choice. Now, I'm not saying I believe in it. I'm not saying that I, you know, think it's right. But you got a choice to make. If it's Trump versus Biden again, do you know how you would vote? It's okay.

So how I would vote right now in this, I am very, very torn. You know, I cannot vote for Trump. You know, I cannot, you know, and face tomorrow and wake up and feel like I'm a person, a human. I can't do that. But also voting for Biden, it also brings concern to my life as well. That's my thing. Biden? Yeah, absolutely Biden.

I'm going with Biden. I'm with Grace. I cannot. I would go for Biden as well. I probably would not vote for either. I don't want either one. It's worse not to vote at all. But it's like, am I going to vote for someone who I absolutely don't want and then vote for someone who I really don't want either?

What's the alternative? One of them is going to win. They are, but it won't be because of me. Well, let's go back. So it's going to be because of a plethora of yous. Do you feel like you're a Democrat more because of what Democrats do or more because of what Republicans do? More because of what Republicans do.

I'm going to end on this one right there. But yes, that's a good one. Probably more because of what Republicans do. And I don't line up with that. I would say because of what Democrats do. Yeah. That's the closest we'll get to pride. More after the break. At this point in the evening, the turkey was picked clean.

People were loading up on Angelica's bounty of desserts. And, at least in a typical year, it was the time of night when the board games would come out, or my mom would challenge me to a game of Parcheesi. But this year, I was up to something. And before everyone left, I wanted to have two more discussions about Black voters in 2024 to explore another division that's clear in the polling data.

So we're doing a gender split as our last combo. So the men are going to stick around here, and then we're going to have Black women in the other room. Gender. We're going to stick around here, and then we're going to have Black women in the other room. Gender. While there's significant drop-off between young and old Black voters in terms of political engagement, what truly alarms National Democrats is the current trend line when it comes to Black men specifically.

In that poll of battleground states, 27% of black men supported Donald Trump, an incredibly high number for a Republican primary candidate. And considering Trump's struggles with traditional swing voters, like moderates and independents, his ability to appeal to groups that don't typically vote Republican, like black men, matters a ton. So I wanted to gather the Black men in the House and have an honest discussion about what might be behind those numbers and whether they think they'll hold. Hand raise if you consider yourself a Democrat. So that's about one, two, three, four, five, six out of the nine of us. Would you consider yourself a Republican? One, would you consider yourself a Republican?

One, would you consider yourself an independent? I think depending on the issue. Depending on the issue. Okay, so we got two. For you, Jarrell, you said you're a Republican. Have you always been a Republican? Always. Always.

What makes you a Republican? What made you a Republican? Like, generally, I think those things vary by state. For us, you know what I'm saying, why would I vote against myself? And in my community and where I'm from, the Republican Party does a lot for black people and a lot for business. Where are you from? Indiana. So it's a state that has Republicans in power, has to have Republicans in power for a long time.

You're saying that leads you to be more interested in voting for Republicans. Absolutely. Why would I vote against myself or vote against my interests? One of the reasons we wanted to convene this group specifically is when you look at polling data right now, there's some fear among Democrats that this could be an election where there's a bigger drop-off among Black men specifically when it comes to Democrats. I'm curious, what do you think it is? What's the connection? Why are Black men more open to Republicans, you think, than black women? The financial mobility. The Republican Party preaches somewhat of this concept of just strap up your bootstraps and kind of will your own way and to make your own way as far as financially.

The financial mobility that they say that's out there, I think that appeals to more men in a disenfranchised that want to take another step financially within their community. So you're telling me that I can be a business owner. You can give me the steps to be there. I can be more efficient. I can have more economic wealth in my own community. That is appealing to some people.

I think that's kind of the reason that it might be appealing to them. Well, another thing is that I honestly feel that the Democratic Party has forgot about the black male. What? What I mean by that is that one of the major demographics that we have is the African American women. They're amazing. They're very strong. They come out to the polls.

But as African-American men, sometimes we get left, like, our needs, our desires, our wants are not always in the account. We kind of get pushed to the side. I think sometimes that might be something that men are looking at, that our needs are not being taken care of, like our matters are not being resolved. I mean, Democrats say in nearly every speech now, black women are the bedrocks of democracy, or there needs to be specific focus on them as the anchors of the party. I mean, I heard you say that you think that sometimes the downstream of that can feel like black men are absent. Do the rest of you all feel like black men are? Why are we looking for the Democratic Party or any kind of party to give you validation? Why do you need these people?

You a man, bro. If you want to feel a certain way or you want to do something in your community, if you want to make money, then you should do it. A lot of voters want to be spoken to, though, right? That's not unique to black men, right? That's not unique to one specific group. Voters want politicians to speak to those concerns. That's what I'm saying. That's the poor idea of politicians. My job is to make money

so that I can buy my way or what I want. I don't want to ask you or you to tell me what I think. I want to pay you to speak for what I think. Yeah, go ahead, Chris. I also wanted to tag on to a lot of black men, Democrats do not cater to men because the squeaky wheel get the oil. We don't talk often. We don't speak up. We don't say anything.

You know, women say, I don't want me, I can't get this raise. You know, they speak up. So, of course, they're going to cater to who's going to speak up. And the number ratio

towards women versus men is, you know, who will you spend more of your money to cater towards? You're going to cater towards the women. There's also been a big change in how the Democratic Party talks about gender and sexuality and other issues over the last five, six years, right? A Me Too movement has completely upended language around gender and gender roles. A embrace of kind of LGBTQ rights about transgender identity has changed the way the party talks about certain issues. Do you think that that has shifted

the party's relationship with black men? Yes, it has. You know, the reality of it, especially in inner cities, you know, we have a lot of people that can't pull themselves up, whatever the circumstances are. So we have a lot of black men are essentially even in the picture. And then some that are in the picture, they feel that they're left out because the reality of it is when you look at the homosexual movement or LGBTQ or however you want to put it, the reality of it is they get more equity than black men in some cases. But part of that is because of the movement that they have and at base. And so they base make noise. And so if we collectively got together, perhaps, you know, we can make that noise. But unfortunately, sometimes we can't get together for whatever reason. You know, it's like 10 churches on one street in the same neighborhood.

And collectively, we can't work together to do God's mission. You know, I think the zombie point is interesting. That makes me think about, you know, obviously joblessness, criminal justice. If there was a specific issue that you think matters most to black men, what would you think that is? That's a mass generalization. I know. Trust me. I know. I'm saying this. If we could think, what would you think about, like, if there was an issue that someone could speak to that you think would resonate? Economic empowerment will be one of the primary things, but also spiritual enlightenment. And when I say that, I'm speaking specifically to coming to a knowledge of who we are, what our design is based upon the biblical understanding of truth and manhood. is based upon the biblical understanding of truth and manhood. Because manhood, I do think we have to fight for manhood because it's being pulled away and redefined by all these different groups.

And I do believe that black men, we have to take our voice back and not be passive and be more deliberate. And particularly Christian black men being very deliberate about discipleship, but also economic empowerment. I think those two things are critical for us. Well, let me ask then about the current figures, right? One about Trump and specific to his appeal or lack of appeal, maybe to Black men. But Trump is someone who's done more outreach to Black men specifically, whether that be, you know, First Step Act and kind of criminal justice reform openness, whether that be, you know, hitting up every rapper who's ever lived. But I mean, the man talks more explicitly about black men than any Republican I've ever

known. Right. And he's getting a response for it, too. Do you feel like that? A lot of stuff that a lot of black men may be going towards Trump now is because what he said, he did. His word was his bond. And that's a lot of men's value. What he said he would do. Obama ran because he was black and saying all this black stuff, but when he took office, oh he can't do that no more.

It's a, Chris. He's president. But you ran from that, and you won because of that. Come on, Chris. But when you got there, you couldn't do that. So what did he say that he was going to do that actually he did? Who? Trump.

That didn't happen before him. Like, that's a good thing. No, I ain't saying it wasn't a good thing. That's not the point. You're saying it's not actually about the value judgment of what he did. It's the fact that it's a person willing to do what they say they do. And I want to add just one more point. I want to add just one more point.

Under Trump's administration, I found a whole lot of black men starting businesses. Yeah, but you understand that had nothing to do with Trump. Oh, I just missed. It had nothing to do with Trump. Oh, I just missed. That had nothing to do with Trump. But that's Republican. Whenever there's a Republican in charge, they get rid of the

regulations. That's always. That's always. It's just like a Democrat if Obama did something. Twice? No. Only the first time? I wasn't even a candidate. It's just like a Democrat if Obama did something. Absolutely. Twice? No. Only the first time?

We ain't phony yet with that. Only the first time. Did you vote for him, George? No. One thing we haven't talked about is kind of wars globally that's kind of in the last month has really taken up a bunch of the space. And one of the ways it's really affecting domestic politics is Joe Biden is going to ask Congress for close to $100 billion for Ukraine, for Israel. And a place that you see him having trouble kind of pitching that is among black communities, right?

Like that there is less support sometimes for that amount of money going abroad. Quickly, I'm curious, like, black men and black people have been a very domestic-focused electorate, right? How, with what is happening globally right now, how does that, does that impact the way you think about next year's election? And what do you think about the prospect of how much money America spends to countries abroad? Because people like Donald Trump are going to make that America first.

That's going to be one of those arguments that he's laying out. It should be. I agree. It should be. Hold on. If the war is not abroad, not America first? That's a fine answer. I can't believe you're saying it.

I'm saying, I'm saying. So right now, you're talking about allocating hundreds of millions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel. And yet you have all these folk coming across the border and you go right there, right down the street to Chicago, where you have people in the police departments and all that. And unfortunately, sometimes our government, whether it's Democrat or Republican, we don't take care of home base. We have a lot of places how they can put those funds and help folk out. But right now, the focus is over there. And I think you can multitask. Unfortunately, we're not. I encourage us to take the stance of the airlines. Put your mask on first and then go and help somebody else put their mask on. Because here's the deal. If you don't put your mask on, we will not survive. If we pay all this money to all these people,

eggs are going to be $25 per case. We don't create anything. And who is that going to affect the most? We don't create anything. It's going to affect black people the most. Okay, let's get back to Biden. What's the word on Biden? He's too old. And we talk about the negatives of Trump often, but we don't talk about get back to Biden. What's the word on Biden? He's too old.

And we talk about the negatives of Trump often, but we don't talk about the negatives of Biden. In a world of today's politics where most policies are written by think tanks and groups of people, Biden handwrote a policy that resulted in more Black people being locked up than ever in the history of America. resulted in more black people being locked up than ever in the history of America. For Donald Trump to succeed next year, specifically when we talk about black men, he basically needs like one out of four, 25% black men who will vote to vote for him. Do you think that's possible? I'm hoping they lock him up. I'm not going to watch it.

I think the Santa's going to slide in there. He could still be president from prison. I think it's doable, but I don't think he's going to slide in there. He could still be president. I think it's doable, but I don't think he's going to get the ticket. I really don't. I think he can get 25%. First question, just work with me that he's the nominee. Just let's assume he's the nominee. Yes, assuming he is.

Assume he's the nominee. Do you think that Trump can win one out of four black men? Yes, there's two factors. One is the economic factor in terms of him pushing for entrepreneurial and all those types of things. The other thing is that he's dealing with straight men. He's not pushing the gay agenda openly. And that's another elephant in the room when it comes to brothers, you know? And so he has two things working for him that will appeal to one out of four. That is the elephant in the room.

Trump's ability to appeal to some Black male voters isn't just about Trump. It's also about masculinity itself and the ways that changing norms around gender and sexuality are reshaping the political landscape. Earlier in the week, I told my mom I wanted to focus on this in my conversations, and she pointed out that to only seek the perspective of Black men, without talking to Black women, would be a real oversight. And I agree. And not just because you should always listen to your mother. So while I was speaking to the group of men in the dining room, I'm just going to be free roaming with the mic. So I'm going to try to come up to you. My colleague Elisa spoke to a group of about 15 Black women, including my mom and sisters,

about their own political power. We carry the weight of a lot, and politicians know it, right? That if we're voting, we're turning the tides on. Oftentimes, we're that extra whatever percentage that will take that particular candidate over the top to win. The way that responsibility can be a burden. Although, man, we're still having a difficult time voting. Yeah, yeah. We've come, it just seems like we're still fumbling, and not us fumbling, but the same issues are before us.

And so black women have had to shoulder that. And I don't think that we shoulder it like we're shouldering it. I just think we do it. We just do what we do. And that's all. And their view on the question we've been asking everyone all night. We're particularly interested, too, in, like, Black men who decide to vote for Trump. And I guess, what do you all think is the appeal there?

Do you get it? Do you not get it? What do you think is the appeal there? Do you get it? Do you not get it? What do you think is the reason that they're involved? You know, you have the black man who makes it, who's the CEO, who's successful, and then the things that Trump stands for financially benefits them. So then that's the black man that's voting for Trump,

the black man that hasn't experienced. I don't think that's the only black man that's voting for Trump. At all. At all. That's one of them. You can go ahead. You know, I think if you say uneducated because uneducated, I think that's the thing. That's it, right? That when you think about the lived experience with women and men, there was a burdening, there was a shouldering that we had to do, but we got education, right? We also think once we talk about the fairness of this country, in my approximation, I think that the problem is we believed the gendered lie that a man would be up here and that, you know, women do what they do. And I think that maybe we propped up the belief that as a man, you would have certain advantages, maybe.

And that hasn't happened for black men. And I do think that it's created a question of what do I do in this moment? And, you know, Trump is very demonstrative against women in a way that affirms manhood, right? And so again, you know, if you're feeling like you're discarded and nothing's working for you, that's going to appeal. That language is really going to appeal to you. But I think the more insidious part of it is that I think it really is the juxtaposition of the life. You women had it.

You're making money. You're doing all things that I could never do, right? And so I know that on the higher end, but I think when anyone, white or black, makes money, they want that tax break. I have not met a CEO who don't want a tax break, right? So I don't know if we could just put it on like just black men who make money. But I think that when you mitigate and talk about take away education, take away just privileges, and that's working, right? Those are things that, you know, we're able to do as women in a way that just hasn't happened in an equitable sense, right? So it's literally the competition of things. And I think that, you know, I think, I think black men, when we, black mothers, we maybe gave wrong lessons to the children,

because I think we, it's this idea that I was, as a man, I was supposed to have this. This is what I was. Oh, this is what I was due. Is that what your mother taught you? The other thing that you'll hear him say all the time, him being Trump is, you know, if, even if he has all his, you know, different litigation issues, he'll say they're coming after me and they're coming. No, and not just that they will. By way of coming after me, they're coming after you.

When they attack me, they're attacking you. That definitely maybe pulls on the desires of becoming for some black men. And if this man is saying, this powerful man is saying, I've got you. You know, I understand that they have not been there for you. And you see how they're attacking me. That's how they're attacking you. And I'm going to stop them from attacking me. And that will also stop them from attacking you.

I'm always scared to say it, but less educated. But if you are not astute, if you're not educating yourself, then what he says becomes golden. I think even just like on a simpler level, like when he ran on like, make America great again, I think not just on like race and gender, that whole slogan to me was almost like people wanting to get their like so-called power back. And so then as a black woman is like race wise, what do you mean make America great? Like what time period are you talking about? Because in the 50s, I don't want to go for me. And then even for men, like you were saying, like we now have like done so much.

And so like if you are the man who's like, actually, like, I thought I was supposed to be in a different place. And I see my woman counterpart. I'm trying to make America great again, too. Reverse the tide and get my power back. So I hear, like, that it seems like in this case, like, why you see black men voting for Trump is that it comes from a place of self-interest, of wanting to, from your perspective, and like, you know, choosing the thing that they think is going to like best benefit them, I guess. Like, I'm wondering who you all see as like the strongest advocates for Black women.

For Black women? No. Right. You're right. Ourselves. We are our greatest advocates. Black women are advocates for themselves. Black women are advocates for themselves. I would like to question.

Because we talked about like, I'm going to like butcher her name, Kamala. We talked about her and like, I think people thought something more of her. And like, I don't, I don't know if black women saw like that was our, I don't, I don't have the answer to that. But I wonder like when we talk about that like if we saw her like in us because she had that pearls and gym shoes thing and you saw all women from sororities coming together with their pearls and their chucks and they they were like oh we've got someone that looks like us in there again and they were hoping like we said with Obama they were expecting her to do so much and we've seen nothing um and so were hoping, like we said with Obama, they were expecting her to do so much,

and we've seen nothing. And so now it's like, who speaks for us? I think people were thinking that she would be it, and that's why we voted. So I honestly think she helped him pull that thing, because there was no way without it. And so now that we don't have what we expected, it's kind of like, okay, well, there goes that. What's next? Well, I think that when we talk about men, whether black or white, I think that, you know, the thought of Kamala Harris being the president. The thought of Kamala Harris being the president is easy to see why it's that black men could be going towards Trump. Yeah. Because the thought, even when we deal with Biden and his age, and the thought is, okay, if something does happen, then this is going to be our president. I think that thought will drive many men, black or white.

At this point, I walked over from the dining room to listen to what was being said. I also wanted to know what they thought of the question I posed to the group of men. I also wanted to know what they thought of the question I posed to the group of men. So next year and next year, for Trump to basically achieve his black male goals, he needs to win one out of four. Oh, really? One out of four. If he wins 25 to 30 percent of black men will be the highest rate of any Republican in modern history. Do you think he can win one out of four black men? Yes. Yes.

At this moment. Yes. We have a lot of praying to do. Oh. Soon after that conversation, we ended the night. People started grabbing leftovers, packing them in tinfoil, and saying goodbye with laughter and hugs. I hadn't seen some of these people in a long time.

And over the next couple days, I heard from several of them, who told me that they felt grateful to be part of the experience. I felt thankful for them, their willingness to play ball with my questions, their candor, for celebrating my favorite holiday a little early. I was saying, can you take us through this? Take us through what you made.

Oh my goodness. And of course, for giving Angelica an excuse. I have Christmas pinwheel, coconut macaroons. To bake 13 different desserts. Fruit-filled shortbread, regular shortbread, pumpkin macaroons, cinnamon shortbread, lemon poppy seed shortbread, pound cake, ginger molasses cookies, chocolate chip cookies, Oreo cheesecake, which is going to, chocolate chip cookies, Oreo cheesecake,

which is going to be like the triumph, and pecan brittle. Did I say walnut brownie? Okay. Just something slight, you know? That's The Run-Up for Thursday, November 23rd, 2023. Thanks so much for listening. We'll be here every week until election day, breaking down this political moment,

helping you understand what will really make a difference next November, and hopefully make you feel a little less anxious in the process. We'd love for you to find The Run-Up in your podcast feeds. Subscribe and follow along. The Run-Up is reported by me, Ested Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, up is reported by me, Ested Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's edited by Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin, and Franny Kartoff, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, and Elisheba Itut. It was mixed by Sophia Landman and fact-checked by Caitlin Love. Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Howfinger, Mahima Chablani, Renan Barelli, Jeffrey Miranda, Maddie Macielo, and Akilah Townsend.

Do you have questions about the 2024 election? We're working on a new question and answer segment, and we want to hear from you. Email us at therunupatnytimes.com. That's therunupatnytimes.com. Thanks for listening, y'all.