The Daily - The Democratic Showdown in Iowa

Episode Date: November 4, 2019

In just three months, the first election of the Democratic presidential race will be held in Iowa.Over the weekend, the party held its most important political event yet in the prelude to that vote �� including a fabled annual dinner attended by almost every remaining candidate in the campaign. At this dinner in 2007, Barack Obama, then a senator, delivered a searing critique of Hillary Clinton’s electability, helping him pull ahead in the polls. Candidates this time around were hoping for a similar campaign-defining moment.We traveled to Des Moines to find out how the candidates are trying to stand out in a crowded field and to try to discern who might have the political support, financial might and organizational prowess to become the nominee.Guest: Reid J. Epstein, a campaigns and elections reporter for The Times based in Washington D.C. Clare Toeniskoetter and Monika Evstatieva, producers for “The Daily,” who traveled to Des Moines to speak with campaign supporters.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Background reading: With the Iowa caucuses fast approaching, the ideological debate has remained the same, but the key players have shifted, with Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Elizabeth Warren appearing to have gained momentum. The latest poll in Iowa suggested that Ms. Warren had seized much of Bernie Sanders’s youthful following. Here are five takeaways from the survey.

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today. In exactly three months, the first election of the Democratic presidential primary will be held in Iowa, marking the official start of the race. Over the weekend, the party held its most important political event yet in the run-up to that election, a fabled annual dinner attended by almost every remaining candidate in the campaign. It's a closely watched test of who exactly has the political support,

financial might, and organizational prowess to become the nominee. Daily producers Claire Tennisgetter and Monika Evstatieva travel to Des Moines to meet up with political correspondent Reed Epstein, who is covering the event. It's Monday, November 4th. Okay. So, Monica and I fly to Des Moines, not really knowing what to expect.

This liberty and justice celebration wasn't supposed to start until 6.30. Test in. I don't even have headphones on yet. But we headed over to the venue at about 10 in the morning. It is 9.42 a.m. on a Friday morning in Des Moines, Iowa. It's a bit chilly. It's 37. Crisp morning. Got our winter jackets on. And already when we got to the main street, there's this massive crowd of people.

Everybody down. Ready? there's this massive crowd of people. It's not like any political event I've ever been to. Amy for America! Amy for America! Go, go! Go! Go! Battle, battle, battle! Go, game! Go, game! So the main event is at a big sports stadium.

And it's really fitting because the whole thing feels like a college football game. But instead of two teams, there are 14. Buffalo Harris fights back! 14 Democratic presidential candidates. But instead of two teams, there are 14. 14 Democratic presidential candidates. So each candidate, each team, has staked out their own area. And they each have... Every candidate has a color, right? Yeah, he's black and white. I've got my bed of sweatshirt on underneath. Their own color. Federal Rurik is black and white. I've got my better sweatshirt on underneath. Their own color.

Better O'Rourke is black and white. Cory Booker is red. Elizabeth Warren is a sort of sea foam green that her team branded as Liberty Green. And some of her supporters are dressed up like the Statue of Liberty. They also have their own music. There are competing marching bands.

Some better than others. And at one point, some of Pete's supporters are doing this choreographed dance in the street. The whole thing just has this vibe of a big tailgate. Snacks, people sharing hand warmers. And Monica and I go around and start talking to people at these various camps. Hi. Hi. How are you doing?

Good, why are you here? I am here to follow Andrew around the country like I've been doing since March. So what's the excitement all about? Pete! Pete. He is the most inspiring candidate, the smartest, the most everything candidate I have ever seen. I've not been this inspired in my entire life. And I would go anywhere and do anything for Pete and Chastain.

Why I'm here? Well, I'm here to support Joe because I think that he's the best chance for the Democrats to beat President Trump. I'm here to support Beto O'Rourke. We've got lots of giant banners and lots of big signs and all kinds of exciting things that we plan to do inside. So it's going to be crazy. Yeah. I am campaigning for Elizabeth Warren. She's been my favorite forever. Bernie is our man. He was my man in 2016. He's still my man. We dispel the myth of the Bernie bros. I say we are the Silver Sanders sisters. So technically, this is a fundraiser for the Democratic Party in Iowa. And there are two ways that people can go.

Big donors can pay for dinner and have special reserved seats on the floor at the event. And then candidates also buy groups of tickets that they give to their supporters for free. Those people don't get the fancy dinner, but they do get to go sit in the stadium and cheer for their candidate. Because the way this works, every candidate goes up on the stage

in the middle of the dinner floor, their face is on the jumbotron, and they give a 12 minute speech, one after another. And all these supporters are like their giant cheering squads. So it's a fundraiser. But because it's the last time all the candidates will be at the same event ahead of the Iowa caucus, it's become something bigger than that. It's a test of who has momentum. And it's gotten even more significant since 2007. And why Iowa? What's important about this state? I mean, obviously, it's pretty

important in terms of the election and the primary. And I think we're trying to duplicate the excitement that the Obama campaign had. Lots of people I talked to mentioned what happened. Barack Obama won the presidency in 2007 because... With Obama. This is actually important because Barack Obama got his big start in Iowa at this dinner. He was lagging behind Hillary Clinton, and then he gave this rousing speech at this dinner. Back then, it was called the Jefferson Jackson Dinner. And it gave his campaign this huge surge.

And he went on to win Iowa. And then, of course, the Democratic nomination. So that's the dream of how this goes. And one candidate in particular seems to be hoping to recreate that moment. Pete Buttigieg. He's been focusing a ton of his campaign's energy and resources on Iowa in recent weeks. And on Friday morning, the Times actually released a poll showing that he was pulling third in Iowa and actually pulling above Joe Biden. And so you can feel this particular energy with his campaign and his supporters. The biggest turnout seems to be for him and for Elizabeth Warren. Bernie is not taking part in the DNC's fundraiser,

and we came from Michigan to support Bernie. The Bernie Sanders supporters are kind of complicated because they're not actually going into the event. He's uncorrupted. All the others take corporate money. They say because of its connection to corporate sponsors and their complicated relationship with the DNC. And then there's Beto O'Rourke. What just happened? I got a news alert and it says U.S. Democratic presidential hopeful Beto O'Rourke announces he's ending his campaign. While we're out in the crowds that afternoon

interacting with Beto supporters, he announces that he's dropping out of the race and won't be speaking at the dinner. So just like that, 14 teams becomes 13. And we go to meet up with Reed outside the arena. Hey, how are you? Good, hi. I feel like we should hug. I know, but it's hard with the mic. Hello.

So welcome to Iowa. Right now, we're watching a parade of Pete Buttigieg supporters dressed in yellow and blue. There's about 2,000 of them. And they are marching up 3rd Street here in Des Moines. They have bells. They're generally making a lot of noise. Let's go see what happens.

All right. Cool. We'll be right back. Reid, what happens when this dinner actually starts? So you walk in. The arena that it was in is the minor league basketball and hockey arena here in Des Moines. So it seats about 16,000 people.

Each campaign's supporters had decorated their sections. So there were rings of signs around the different levels with the candidates' names on them. We were sitting about four stories above the floor. For our four guests, dinner is now served. And on the floor of the arena were several dozen

tables arranged almost like a very large wedding party. I see like Cory Booker is mingling on the floor and I can't tell who he's with. It looks like it might be Chris Dodd, who ran for president here in 2008, but it's kind of far away, so it's hard to tell. With black-clad busboys

running around and people in suits sort of sitting around at the table. These were the fat cats, the big donors. And in the seats above that were people in t-shirts, the supporters of the candidates who had gotten free tickets from the campaigns. And it was a real difference between the different groups of people. Ladies and gentlemen, please find your seats. Our program will be beginning shortly. There's an elevated stage in the middle of the floor with four smoke machines on each corner, a long walkway that the candidates use to come in and out to get to the stage, and above it is the giant video board jumbotron.

Mayor Pete is about to come up, and on the video board are pictures of him and his husband, along with a photo of him from when he was in the military. And then we got to what people were waiting for, which was the candidates. And the first one up was Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana. This is High Hopes by Panic! at the Disco. All the candidates pick walk-on songs,

and Buttigieg's is High Hopes from Panic! at the Disco, which is a very catchy... It's like... That song came on, the 2,000 or so people who came from Buttigieg start screaming. His supporters are in some choreographed light dancing. All blinking at once. Thank you, Iowa. Thank you, Iowa Democratic Party. It's also a rare event where Buttigieg is wearing a suit jacket.

Usually he comes out in just a blue tie and a white shirt. So you know it's a serious event for him that he's put a coat on. So that leads right into his speech. The first time I came to this state was as a volunteer to knock on doors for a presidential candidate, a young man with a funny name. And we knew the stakes were high then the stakes are colossal now he talks about looking at the

window of his office in south bend and seeing kind of the decaying midwest making a comeback my office is about six hours that way down i-80 and And out the window of that office, I see the outlines of our ethanol plant, which is why I understand the measure of this president's betrayal of American farmers, and I know how to talk about it. He contrasts himself with President Trump. And I don't have to throw myself a military parade to see what a convoy looks like. Because I was driving one around Afghanistan right about the time this president was taping season seven of The Celebrity Apprentice. So that tough talk's not going to work against me. And he speaks about going hunting with his husband's father in Michigan over Thanksgiving

weekend. In rural Michigan, you cannot stop a man from going deer hunting with his husband's father. In rural Michigan, you cannot stop a man from going deer hunting with his husband's father. And only at the end, in the last couple of minutes, does he get to the real meat and potatoes of what he's talking about. But I also will not tire from the effort to include everyone in this future we are trying to build. Progressives, moderates, and Republicans of conscience who are ready for a change. The time has come. Which is the contrast with those with warren we will fight when we must fight so warren's big theme in this race is that she is a fighter and she is gonna fight for the big progressive causes but i will never

allow us to get so wrapped up in the fighting that we start to think fighting is the point. The point is what lies on the other side of the fight. He is saying she alienates other people. So Iowa, are you ready to bring this country together? Then let us make history together, and we will have a lot to celebrate in November of next year, and we will know where to go from there. Thank you, Iowa.

Thank you, Democrats. Thank you so much. Buttigieg just finished. For people in this room who have been paying attention to this caucus and the campaign, that's about Elizabeth Warren, whose campaign is to have the fight and take the fight to the people who she believes have caused the problems in the country. Buttigieg is telling a different story, talking about bringing people together from outside the core elements of the party. We take care of our own. We take care of our own. We take care of our own. Campaign anthem from 2012. We take care of our own.

Okay, now we have Joe Biden. What's that? Biden's up. So Biden walks out, and he's immediately at a disadvantage because some of the sections that his campaign has reserved are mostly empty. Hello, Iowa Democrats. Let me get right to it. There's a couple things I've learned the last couple weeks. Number one is that Vladimir Putin doesn't want me to be president.

And number two, Donald Trump doesn't want me to be the nominee. He launches into the big theme of his campaign, which is he is the most electable. And we must beat him. And I will beat him like a drum if I'm your nominee. And he knows it. He knows it. Folks, look. And then he pivots almost immediately

into an attack on Elizabeth Warren. We can do this. We can do it quickly without taxing the middle class. We can make sure that the 160 million people who have health insurance they like can keep it if they want. And if not, they can buy in to a Medicare-like proposal. Ladies and gentlemen, that will not take four years or five years or 10 years to happen. It will happen immediately. Immediately. You know, it landed with less enthusiasm than what we saw from Buttigieg, in part because he had far fewer people, but also because Joe Biden isn't somebody who is lighting these big rooms of activists on fire. The rationale for the Biden campaign is much more

about winning over casual voters or people who are not spending six hours on a Friday night at these events, people who are going to go vote, but less activists. So, ladies and gentlemen, get up. We're going to go vote, but less activist. So, ladies and gentlemen, get up. Remember who we are. Let's take this country back and begin to lead the world again. Thank you. Thank you.

So the next leading candidate to come out was Elizabeth Warren. Please welcome Senator Elizabeth Warren. Nine to five is blank. Her crowd has some sort of green lights and flags they're waving around. Her people jump up and cheer. They're waving flags. There's a lot of waving. They have a giant Elizabeth Warren banner that comes down through several sections of the arena. And her people cheered so loudly and for such an extended amount of time that her time to speak started counting down. And she had to turn to them and sort of with palms down, like, encourage them to kind of cut it out so that she could begin her speech.

And then once she did, it was as if she had planned this all along to be a rebuttal to Buttigieg and Biden. A lot of people are afraid of big structural change. Afraid because they're already rich and powerful and they may lose influence. They lose influence, afraid because they see an America where they won't be able to make the changes they need. And she said, well, not me. I believe in change and I know we can get it done. I believe in change and I know we can get it done. So that was kind of the setup for her speech. And later there was a section where

she really stuck the knife in them. Anyone who comes on this stage and tells you they can make change without a fight is not going to win that fight. out a fight is not going to win that fight. 2020 is our time in history, our time to dream big, fight hard, and win. Wow, that I have not heard Elizabeth Warren go so hard at Buttigieg and Biden and their sort of ideas of kind of almost all the way to there to where she and Bernie Sanders are as she did tonight. a new frontier for her, actually telling the 12,000 or 13,000 people here that they'll lose if they nominate somebody who is not fully invested in the most progressive ideas.

And later in the night, Bernie Sanders came on stage. Power to the people. And later in the night, Power to the people. Bernie Sanders came on stage. Please welcome Senator Bernie Sanders. Power to the people. And there's a lectern waiting for him. Unlike everyone else who paced the stage and pointed and gestured to their supporters,

he stood at the lectern with prepared notes on paper that he had rolled up in his suit jacket and gave his speech. Good evening, Iowa Democrats. Part of that was Bernie Sanders did not bring any supporters to this event and instead had a march across town in the rain. Tonight, all of us, no matter what candidate we are supporting,

are in agreement that we must defeat the most dangerous president in the history of our country. And then he gave what anyone in that crowd would have recognized as the condensed version of the standard Bernie Sanders stump speech. At a time of massive income and wealth inequality, the Democratic Party must become the party of the working class of this country.

It was, you know, the Bernie greatest hits condensed into 11 and a half minutes. So that's four candidates. What about the other nine? And the other candidates were still, nine months after this race started, doing a fair amount of introducing themselves to these activists and to Iowa caucus goers. And 11 years later, one state passed a dividend

where now everyone in that state gets between $1,000 and $2,000 a year, no questions asked. And what state is that? Alaska. And how does Alaska pay for it? Oil. And what is the oil of the 21st century, Iowa?

Technology. Technology, software, self-driving cars and trucks. Andrew Yang talked about his universal basic income proposal. And I started my career fighting for the people. In fact, the first day I walked into a courtroom, I spoke five words. Kamala Harris for the people. Kamala Harris talked about her career as a prosecutor. But I come from the grit of a February snowstorm in the middle of Minnesota. Amy Klobuchar said that she would win big in the Midwest.

I have won every race, every place, every time in the reddest of red congressional districts. Because if I am your nominee, I will inspire, engage and ignite this nation like no other nominee can. And Cory Booker talked about not criticizing other Democrats and focusing instead on President Trump. Iowa, I see you. I love you. I see you. I love you. Together, we will rise. We will rise! The last two speakers of the night are John Delaney, the former congressman from Maryland, and Steve Bullock, the governor of Montana. Governor Steve Bullock of Montana is all that there is left.

I think his people, this is the only section that's still full. If you stand up, you can see them. By the end, everyone, including the sort of public address staff of the event, seemed to be exhausted. Close. Wait, oh no. But it's not Cory Booker, it's Steve Bullock.

Dignities for Steve Bullock. And by the time Steve Bullock came out, Much of his speech was, in fact, making jokes about how no one was still left in the audience. And by the end, you know, there was no, you didn't have to like beat traffic because everyone had already left. It was like a big blowout game. Yeah, it was, it was like a 30 point basketball game in February and not the World Series. That's it.

That's it. Congratulations. You've made it through. it turned the tides for Obama in his favor 12 years ago, that it really shifted the momentum and then led him to winning in Iowa, getting the nomination and becoming president. Do you think anybody had that sort of moment this year in Iowa? Or was it too difficult with 13 candidates taking the stage? Well, I mean, the short answer is we'll see. Sort of the more complicated answer is when Obama gave that speech 12 years ago, it was a pretty negative speech about Hillary Clinton. A lot of it was about why Obama was the best candidate, but a lot of it was about why Hillary

Clinton was not. And the only person who sort of came out with that kind of bite tonight was Elizabeth Warren. And we'll see whether she sustains this sort of argument about Biden and Buttigieg throughout, or, you know, whether this is a one-time only event, whether this is kind of a new phase of the campaign for her, or whether this was something she rolled out just for tonight. Reed, thank you. Thank you. You know, we've spent 12 hours together today.

I'm sure we'll be back in February, if not sooner. We'll be back next month. The poll of Iowa voters likely to participate in February's caucuses, conducted by The Times and Siena College and released on Friday, shows the top four candidates locked in an extremely tight race, with Joe Biden, the frontrunner nationally, polling fourth in Iowa at 17%, behind Warren, who's polling at 22%, Sanders at 19%,

and Buttigieg at 18%. In an interview, Buttigieg said that the Iowa caucuses were increasingly becoming a two-way race between him and Warren. The contrasts are real, he said. They're substantive, respectful policy contrasts. But they're real. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.

It doesn't get bigger than this. A public health emergency by a Supreme Court mandated panel. Officials in India have declared a public health emergency in the country's capital city, New Delhi, after air pollution levels reached 20 times what are considered safe. The warning came after a toxic cloud of air settled over the city, which officials blame on car emissions, construction dust and farmers burning their crops. The fact is the people of Delhi NCR can't do anything about what's happening right now, Poulami. The only way to dodge this is to perhaps leave the city. Absolutely. It's turned into a very alarming situation.

In many of India's cities, air pollution has become so dangerous that environmentalists warn that the risk of long-term exposure can be the equivalent of smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Bavaro. See you tomorrow.