The Daily - The Field: Biden’s Last Hope

Episode Date: February 28, 2020

Former vice president Joseph R. Biden Jr. was once a clear front-runner in the race for the Democratic nomination. Now, he is fighting back from a string of losses and staking his candidacy on his ability to win tomorrow’s South Carolina primary, the first in a state with a large black population. But will he win, and if the margin isn’t as decisive as he hopes, can he stay in the race? Guest: Astead W. Herndon, who covers national politics for The New York Times traveled to South Carolina with Clare Toeniskoetter and Annie Brown, producers on “The Daily.” For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Background reading: A new poll showed Mr. Biden with a wide lead in South Carolina, with Senator Bernie Sanders and hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer trailing behind.Mr. Biden lashed out after reports that Mr, Sanders considered mounting a primary challenge to President Barack Obama in 2012, saying it was “one of the reasons I resent Bernie.”Churches have long played the primary role in mobilizing black support in South Carolina. So how are candidates faring among congregations?

Hello. Hello, how are you? I'm doing well, how are you? Very good, thank you. It's a beautiful church. And I'm not even inside yet, I already know. My name's Ested, I'm a reporter. Hi.

I'm glad to meet you. Good to see you. You know what makes a beautiful church, don't you? What makes it? Beautiful people. From the New York Times, this is The Field. I'm Ested Herndon in South Carolina. How many people fit in here?

In here, we could fit about 1,400. Wow. Now, when I built this, I didn't have a congregation like that. But this area doesn't have anything. And because it doesn't, you had to build something not for the present, but for the future. Building for where you want it to go as opposed to where it is. Do politicians come? Yeah, they come around.

Why do you think so many politicians come to churches in South Carolina? It is a place where you can impact the most people at any given point in time. The black people? Yeah, black people. Black people generally go to church. Let us stand for the call to worship. Praise him. Praise him. In South Carolina, more than 65% of the Democratic electorate

is made up of Black voters. And it's the first primary that really represents a test of how these candidates can do among Black voters nationally. We have someone here today that we know, we've seen him, we know his record. He served with someone we really cared about. And no candidate has staked more of their campaign on the Black vote. Ladies and gentlemen, the next president on the Black vote than Joe Biden. Reverend Dr. Holt, thank you for inviting me into God's house today.

I really appreciate it. Thank you, thank you, thank you. And as Joe Biden has experienced these early defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada, he's been saying to voters, just wait till the black vote shows up. Wait till I get to South Carolina. Look, this is an incredible opportunity. I want you to know, although I've had overwhelming support from the community my whole career, I don't expect anything. I'm here to earn. I'm here to earn your vote. I'm here to earn your support. As he's experienced these results in the early states, it's added a real sense of pressure on South Carolina. And if Biden doesn't win and win decisively, it could completely erode his chances at the Democratic nomination.

it could completely erode his chances at the Democratic nomination. I don't expect anything, but I know one thing, and this is real. The African-American community in South Carolina can make a judgment about who the next president of the United States is going to be. No, no, that's not an exaggeration. Literally, literally, you're able to do this because when the African-American community decides we're going to move into Super Tuesday, as they call it, where there's significant African-American vote. The question is, is Biden right about his overwhelming support from Black voters? And if he's not, and that vote splits across candidates, what does that mean for the Democratic primary?

But folks, the vote is in your hands, not in a joke. You can control this outcome. I'm going to do everything in my power to earn your respect, earn your vote. I was telling them earlier that my father's a coaching pastor. Oh yeah? Yeah. And for us lay people, what does that mean? It's God in Christ. I was telling them earlier that my father's a Kojic pastor. Oh, yeah? Kojic. Yeah. And for us lay people, what does that mean? Church of God in Christ.

Just a different Pentecostal denomination. Both apostolic, so he's my surrogate brother. You're both going to heaven. Yeah, yeah. No, no, no, no. We're both already there. Yeah, right, right. A few days ago, about two hours away from the church where Biden spoke,

I went with producers Claire Tenesketter and Annie Brown to Temple of Faith Bible Way Church. If you want to just... Pass it over here? Okay, no problem. To meet Bishop Ted Myers. I wanted to hear just about you and how you view the primary and what's going on here, but also just about your life. So how long have you been in South Carolina? Life.

I've lived here all my life. This is home. So there's a lot of history that goes into that. What year? When were you born? What year were you born? 1944. 1944. Okay. What was it like growing up in lower Richland in the 50s, 60s?

Well, it was basically a black community. When I went to school, I had to walk about five miles to go to school as a kid. And we had to walk on dirt roads. So when it rained, it would be like muddy and dirty. But you had to walk those roads if you wanted to go to school. What was your family structure like, brothers and sisters? How many? How big was your family?

We had a nice little baseball team. We had a family of 12. Okay. Yeah. 12 kids. 12 kids. I'm the third child. I had a brother who was between me and my sister.

And when he was about two years old, he became ill. When he was about two years old, he became ill. And my father, because he didn't have doctors close by, my father had to take him in his arm and walk him to a doctor, which was about 10 miles away. And while he was going, my brother died in his arms. And so he had to bring that baby back home in his arms to my mother. I'm not sure he ever got over that.

So 10 miles to the closest doctor, five mile walk on the dirt road to school. Is that because Laura Richland is Black? Listen, we didn't have those services because, you know, we didn't count. We had a lack of transportation, public transportation. Parents didn't have access to jobs. We weren't real people. We were just part of the environment. When's the first time you voted? Oh, I voted when I was 18. As soon as I was able to register, I registered. Okay. I knew that if the voting right was ever there, I didn't have any other choice. There was nothing because it sent us a message

to the entire population that we too have a right to be a part of this. And I was voting, okay. 64, I voted for Johnson. Have you voted in every presidential ever since? In 68? Yeah. I voted for Humphrey in 68. 72? I voted for McGovern.

I thought that he could have served as a tremendous president. Jimmy Carter? Yeah. Did you back Jimmy Carter? Yeah. Did you back Bill Clinton? Yeah. Bishop Myers has always voted. And year after year, cycle after cycle, the candidate that he chooses has gone on to become the Democratic nominee.

Gore? Yeah. Kerry? Yeah. That's not because he's some political psychic. Year after year, Black voters, the most loyal constituency of the Democratic Party, have largely coalesced around a singular Democratic candidate and helped propel that individual to the party's nomination.

Obama versus Hillary, who did you support? Now you know. I don't know. With me, I was excited. I was excited for him. Bernie or Hillary? Hillary. So it started to become conventional wisdom.

Whoever Black people vote for, that candidate will be the Democratic nominee. This time around, how did you... When did you start to notice Joe Biden? I hadn't heard about Joe Biden before. But when Obama chose him to be his VP, I figured if Obama chose him, he didn't have to. Bishop Meyer says he just had a good feeling about Biden.

He has depth about what he's saying, and he speaks to that from his heart. That's the kind of person he is. He feels people. He's touchable. You can reach Joe. I think he understands where you are. None of us want to see our children leave here before we do. Biden had to see his son die and realize that it's going to alter him.

This is something Biden talks about all the time. In 2015, he lost his son Beau to brain cancer at just 46 years old. And this wasn't the first time that Biden had lost family members. In the early 1970s, right after he had won his Senate seat, his wife and one-year-old daughter were killed in a car crash. I have had it happen to me. So I know the pain. I have lost two sons. It takes something special to deal with it. A father losing a son, and I'm sure he had a close tie with his son. What you gonna think? Joe Biden has had a lot of hits. That man is good to be able to stand.

But I think that Biden has been able to pull some strength from that. I really believe it. The connection, I could feel him. It was just a month after Joe Biden lost his son that a terrible tragedy happened in South Carolina. A white supremacist walked into a predominantly African-American church, and opened fire and killed nine people. As vice president, Joe Biden flies down to South Carolina, goes to the church, I wish I could say something that would ease the pain of the families and of the church.

And speaks with the congregation about grief. But I know from experience, and I was reminded of it again 29 days ago, that no words can mend a broken heart. No music can fill the gaping void. At least in my experience, only faith. Only faith. And sometimes, as all the preachers in here know, sometimes even faith leaves you just for a second.

Sometimes you doubt. It's a powerful moment where he relates his personal story to their tragedy. And it's an example of what many Black South Carolinians say about Joe Biden. That he's been there. That they know him. And that they trust him. We had a meeting, and he was there, pastors and certain church leaders, and we had a breakfast meeting with him.

And when Bishop Myers got the chance to meet the vice president in person, it sealed his affection for him. Biden lived up to the hype. And it was quite impressive because he was talking then about some of the problems that we have and how we could overcome. Plain talk, no foolishness. He was just laying it all out. And you liked him when you met him. Oh, yeah. And I thought then that if ever he became a candidate again,

that would be the time to vote him in. That would be it. You thought that at that point? Yeah. I thought that he was the man for the job. And that seemed to be true for many South Carolinians. From the moment Biden got into the race, it seemed as if the Black vote was his, and his to lose.

Is that the front? I think this is the front. I think this is the front. Hi, how are you? I told y'all I'm in free. Y'all came to the front door. I'm sorry, I couldn't hear you. That's all right, I'm moving. Did we come to the wrong door?

Y'all are here now, so nice to let y'all in. Are you Bernice? Yes, I am. It is nice to meet you. Estelle, we're from the New York Times. Yeah, y'all come on in. Thank you. Thank you so much.

That's why I know y'all are in screen, because y'all came from the door. Take your shoes off. Oh, please. No. Okay. There was. Oh, please. No. Okay. There was. Last Monday morning, Claire, Annie, and I went to meet a woman named Bernice Scott.

She's a longtime local political figure, the former head of the Richland City Council, and the head of a volunteer group that's supporting Joe Biden. Can I ask you what your shirt says? They call themselves. Yeah, it's the Reckoning Crew. The Reckoning Crew. The Reckoning Crew. Hi.

Are y'all excited about Saturday? Yes. Oh, yes, we are. Pride victory for the, yeah, Vice President Pride will win. The group had gotten together to go door knocking for Biden. When you door knock, what do you say? I'm Bernice Scott. I'm your neighbor. President Biden will win. The group had gotten together to go door knocking for Biden.

I'm Bernice Scott. I'm your neighbor. I've worked in this community all my life. I'm out campaigning for Joe Biden. Would you please look at him and what you think about him? Oh yeah, I'm for Joe Biden. Okay, let's do it. Be to the poll. You can go early. But it was also clear that they

felt as if their work was done. How many doors, like how often are people for Joe versus not for Joe when you're knocking on doors? I haven't ran into anybody yet not for Joe. Zero. Zero to zero. Whether or not this has been true for the reckoning crew, the evidence tells us there has been some drift away from Biden across the state. Some has come from billionaire Tom Steyer, the businessman who's invested a lot of time and money in the state.

And some has come from Bernie Sanders, who has experienced some success in the early states and is benefiting from name recognition from his last presidential run. Biden still has a healthy lead. But these two candidates have put some pressure on Biden in South Carolina. The latest polling tells us while Biden is at around 35%, Sanders is at 20%, and Steyer is at 14%. But these women are confident that the vote is still

there. What would be success for Joe Biden in South Carolina on Saturday when we get the votes? If he was supposed to win by 30, by 40. But who said that? The news media. Joe Biden's team said that he would have a big firewall in the state, that he would show his strength. If he only wins by a little, is that success? A win is a win. It's like getting to heaven or going to hell. There's no choice there. You either go to heaven or go to hell.

It doesn't matter the margins. It doesn't matter if he squeaks it out. He can squeak, peek, whatever he want to do, as long as he wins. But margins do matter, particularly in South Carolina. In 2008, Barack Obama won the South Carolina primary by around 30 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the South Carolina primary by around 50 points. 2016, Hillary Clinton won the South Carolina primary by around 50 points. And for both those candidates, it kicked off a firewall of delegates that they would amass through Black voters in the South and lead them to the nomination. Joe Biden has bet on a similar firewall. But if he doesn't

get those same margins, can't replicate what Clinton and Obama did, then even a slight win in South Carolina might be the beginning of the end for his candidacy. Yesterday, I went to church and I prayed about it. And I think, you know, that he really is going to win and he's going to win far more by more percentage than what they're predicting. You know, I spoke to some people at the church yesterday. So you think that the polls are wrong? In my spirit, yes, I feel they are. You know, so, yeah.

Because they had me all hyped up by Hillary. I had brought me a dress to wear to the inaugural ball, and I ain't worn it yet. You haven't worn it yet? So I think they're wrong. I really do. Do you think you'll wear it on Saturday? I might put it on and go out because I'm working at the pool. I might put it on and go out there. But we are aware of at least one woman that Bernice Scott knows

who's left the Biden camp and gone elsewhere. We're going to speak later today with a woman, Dahlia Myers. What's that? Yeah. Let me tell you. I'll cut that off for a second. Oh, okay. It's nice to meet you. How's it going?

It's lovely to meet you. I'm Dahlia Myers. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer.

I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. So across town, we meet up with Delia Myers. I am a council person on the Richland County Council District 10. Who actually took Bernice Scott's seat on the Richland County Council.

I was very clear on what it took to win. council. I was very clear on what it took to win. Delia says she ran an outside-the-box, anti-establishment, upstart political campaign. Because I'd had to do it against a machine. And the machine she describes is Bernice. Which partially explains why we got that reaction when we said we were talking to Delia. But only partially. I'm as capitalist as they come. I mean, I drive an overpriced car. I live in an overpriced house.

I buy overpriced clothes and I spend too much on where I eat. Okay. Delia considers herself conservative within the Democratic Party. I'm a pro-life Democrat, but I do believe the party's position on abortion is right. And so like Bernice, her choice was Joe Biden early on. And I think everybody in my family thought that. I mean, we just thought he could fundamentally win. And I thought he could pull together enough of a coalition of Democrats,

moderates, and disaffected Republicans to win. It was a who can win, I think it's Joe Biden. I mean, in some ways, that's what the campaign is, the message that it's giving to its supporters, right? Yes. And I now disagree with that message. I used to agree with it. I used to think that was the way to win.

But I guess I kind of woke up and realized, who wins an election saying, I'll take you backwards? There are three basic reasons why I'm running for president of the United States. The first is to restore the soul of the nation. And the second is to rebuild the backbone of this nation. And the third is to unify this nation. We always do better when we act as one.

I knew in my gut that was not a campaign that was targeted to win. There was just nothing inspirational about it. There was no, here is the case for my candidacy. It was, let's drive this car looking in the rearview mirror. Who drives that way? She goes from being a Biden volunteer to giving up on him. If you can't motivate me to go vote for you and I want to vote for you,

how are you going to get people who are not inclined to go vote to go vote for you? I mean, if I'm sitting here going, well, I can sit that one out and I'm going to vote. How do you get people that you need to motivate to go and vote? And that's what I saw. So Delio went looking for a new option. About a year ago, the Sanders campaign and most other campaigns reached out to me and asked me to come and sit with a candidate, do a small meet and greet. That's what they were doing in South Carolina. All of them were.

It wasn't unusual. And I said, yeah, I'll come. But I teased him and said, Bernie Sanders is never going to be my candidate. He does not fit anything that is of interest to me. And on top of it all, just the aesthetics don't work. He doesn't brush his hair. Y'all don't make him use gel. But I went and literally sat through the first introduction with a good friend of mine, Courtney Yang.

And I just sat there laughing. I was like, Courtney, really? Seriously? What were your reactions? Everybody was so gung-ho. It was just, I mean, it was this room packed full of people. And they were rabidly cheering for Bernie. And I just thought it was entertaining. I really did. I didn't take it seriously.

I did not give it much credence. And afterwards, I watched, I guess. Thank you, Michigan. Thank you, Pittsburgh. Thank you, Denver. 10, 15, Sanders rallies. Thank you, Santa Ana. Greenville, thank you very much. We were told that it was gonna rain and there'd be a small turnout.

Looks like that's not the case. And I just thought, nobody's got this kind of fire and passion. Nobody. We thank all the people outside in the second overflow room. It's a great turnout. Thank you very much. Not only is this a large crowd, you are a loud crowd. This is a hell of a turnout. That's what this is. 10,000 people.

Who does that? 20,000 people and we have to close the door. Who does that? Of course, Sanders has always had this type of energy. It's been one of his hallmarks. But what Dalia started to think was that maybe this race isn't about persuading moderate Republicans to vote for a Democrat over President Trump. His approval rating is at 90% with the Republican Party. And so I'm not convinced that those same people are going to overnight on election day,

all of a sudden, not approve of Trump, enough to vote for a Democrat. They're not voting for a Democrat. And so we have to inspire enough Democrats to go to the polls and vote, and that's part of why I switched. Have you ever voted for a candidate who felt more off with your policy goals?

who felt more off with your policy goals? Mm-mm. End of the day, what's more important to you, electability or policies? Electability is policies. The Democratic Party is not the party of black people. It is a coalition party. So you have to be able to get groups of all people to vote for you across the Democratic Party.

Black people, white people, Hispanics, Asians. So if you can't get whole swaths of this party to vote for you, how ever will we win? Delia represents a transition from the Biden view of electability to a Sanders vision, an anti-establishment vision. She went from thinking that the candidate she chooses has to appeal to moderate Republicans to embracing the Sanders framework of how you beat Trump by motivating a cross-section of voters across races and generations. In doing that, it takes Bernie Sanders from being the least electable candidate to the only one who can build that type of coalition. Ultra conservative people like me who are voting for Bernie Sanders, I mean, that's shock of all

shocks. All of my friends are like, Daria, really? Seriously? When did you decide that, you know, this made sense? And so they are surprising. They've known me all of my life. But I think there's enough diversity in the black community to still surprise people. I mean, people have for far too long thought that all black people were this monolithic think block, sort of like the Borg from Star Trek. You know, we are all the same. There's, you know, these connected wires

making us all think the same way. Well, that is not true. Just to keep on this point, it feels like a unique thing of this primary is that unlike Obama or Clinton, it seems likely that there will not be a runaway winner of black voters. But it also makes the group's voting power or determinative power less in the primary.

Right. Like if if the person wins by a small plurality, that doesn't mean the same as when Biden or when Clinton won by 60 or when Obama won by 70. Isn't there some irony there? Like, isn't there isn't it? It seems as if you're advocating for a new form of politics, but at the same time, the community, the state you represent might matter less because of that. So if we turn that around, we could say that it matters more because it reveals you are looking at this group in the wrong way. And this group has decided that there are pieces here, there, there, and there that it likes. We're very much a diverse group within the party. So the group could send a message, just not one unified message, right? It could send a message that the old way of doing things where you can run in South Carolina

and pass out a bunch of dollar bills and think that that's the end of it or feed people a chicken sandwich or a fish fry. Or go to church. Or go to church. That's absolutely true. At my church, you can't do that. But I do think the old way of speaking to people, reaching people, and sort of lemming like sending them off to do a thing,

it doesn't work. How's your convincing efforts with your family going? I think I'm winning. Oh! Delia Myers is, of course, my daughter. I think I'm winning. Oh. Delia Myers is, of course, my daughter. And I'm her proud father. And she owes me for that. This, again, is Bishop Myers.

I think that Joe Biden is an honest person, open person. But I don't think that he is as... I don't think that he is as forceful on issues as he has been in the past. Who has undergone his own sort of transformation in the last couple weeks. That luster is just not there. It has not been exciting.

It may just be that he wants to kind of be that moderate voice, that voice of moderation. And we don't need a voice of moderation right now. We need someone who can scream loud, do something in light of what is happening to the country and to us, you know, brown people, you know, let's go back to normal. Let's get back to what is normal. Normal got us to where we are. Shoot, if I'm normal, that means that you've got your foot on my neck and I'm standing here screaming, help, help. And you're saying, it's all right, I'll be here next week.

Now, Delia hasn't convinced her father to vote for Bernie Sanders. next week. Now, Delia hasn't convinced her father to vote for Bernie Sanders. He's of his own generation and is looking at this political moment with his own lens. I just knew that if it was not Joe, who would it be? And I just waited for the chips to fall. I guess I was kind of wavering, looking at the field, and then I met Tom. South Carolina has a chance to make history, but we have to get this right. The status quo just won't do. Tom Steyer, the billionaire businessman who has pumped advertising dollars and organizing staff throughout the state of South Carolina.

That's why South Carolinians are choosing Tom Steyer. He specifically has been trying to woo older Black voters who might be feeling a little nervous about Joe Biden's candidacy. Do you remember how you first heard Tom Steyer's name? Did you see commercials? Uh-huh. Because that's one thing people talk about with Tom Steyer, that it's his money that he's kind of bought these votes.

Well, no way. I never want anyone to ever say that money could buy my vote. My vote is too expensive. He really, I mean, he had a plan. Joe doesn't have a plan. Or he doesn't bring forth this plan. I think he thought that he did not have to do that. And that's what hurt.

What's significant about people like Bishop Myers turning away from Biden's candidacy is that it shows that it's not just younger voters who are looking for something a little different. The black vote seems to be splintering across demographics. Thank you. Guys, it's been a pleasure meeting you. Such a pleasure. Thank you. My joy.

All the time. Thank you. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. All right, man. I get that. Will do. Will do.

All right. See you all. Good luck on Saturday. Thanks. That's probably not going to answer it. Hello! Hi, how are you, Bishop? I'm fine. A few days after we talked to Bishop Myers,

we got word that he was planning to vote early. You know, we keep bothering you. We got to get an answer. But he was second-guessing his vote for Tom Steyer. You got to get an answer? Yeah, did you vote? Yeah, I voted. All right, so drumroll.

How did it end up? Well, I'll tell you like this. I really had a search of the soul in there. And a few things really got me where I ended up. Two things have happened since we had last spoke. In the Democratic debate, candidates universally went after Bernie Sanders, putting him on the defensive. And the most important political figure in South Carolina, Congressman Jim Clyburn, he endorsed Joe Biden.

The possibility of Sanders not doing much. And I looked at Jim Clyburn having come out for Joe Biden. And I did not want to give Bernie a bad sendoff in South Carolina. I voted for Joe. So you voted for what? I voted for Joe. You voted for Joe? No, I'm just joking.

Oh, I was like, what a plot twist. I voted for Bernie. Oh, wow. Even though Tom Steyer was still his favorite candidate, he felt as if voting for him would be a throwaway. You thought Steyer couldn't make it out, and you didn't want Bernie to have a bad showing in South Carolina because you don't think Joe is the candidate.

No, right. Joe's a good guy, but he's only going to bring us back to us, a place where we were. My gut told me that I needed to go. I need to go with Bernie. So your daughter did work some magic a little bit. Right. Wow.

Do you think the black vote is changing? I think so. I think that people, you know, we've always wanted something better. And maybe it's just that it's not a one size fits all. People have desire. All people. And if white voters vote because they have certain desires that they feel should be met, what makes them think that black voters

aren't going to be any different? Thank you so much. I really appreciate your time in these last couple days. You've been so helpful to us, Bishop. Thank you, Bishop. Appreciate you guys. Take care and many, many blessings in your endeavors. Thank you. Thank you.

You're welcome. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. On Saturday, South Carolina will hold its primary, with results expected starting around 8 p.m. Next week, the Democratic presidential race moves to 14 different states on Super Tuesday. The Daily is made by Theo Balcom, Andy Mills, Lisa Tobin, Rachel Quester, Lindsay Garrison, Thank you. Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Mark George, Luke Vanderploeg, Adiza Egan, Kelly Prime, Julia Longoria, Sindhu Yanasambandham, Jasmine Aguilera, MJ Davis-Lynn, Austin Mitchell, Sayer Kavado, Nina Patuk, Dan Powell, Dave Shaw, Sidney Harper, Daniel Guimet, Hans Butow, Robert Jimison, and Mike Benoit. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Michaela Bouchard, Stella Tan, Lauren Jackson, Julia Simon, Mahima Choblani, and Nora Keller. That's it for The Daily.

I'm Michael Mabarro. See you on Monday.