The Daily - The Field: The Aftershocks of Iowa in New Hampshire

Episode Date: February 11, 2020

Voters in New Hampshire pride themselves on helping winnow the nomination field. While many polls show Senator Bernie Sanders leading in this year’s primary, the caucus debacle in Iowa meant no single candidate left that first contest with full momentum. We flew from Iowa to New Hampshire, following the campaign trail and talking to voters about whether Democrats who don’t support Sanders are coalescing around another choice.Guests: Lisa Lerer, a reporter at The New York Times, covering campaigns, elections and political power, and Clare Toeniskoetter and Jessica Cheung, producers on “The Daily.” For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Background reading: Mr. Sanders and Mayor Pete Buttigieg, of South Bend, Ind., are hoping to make the race for the nomination a two-person contest.Still, after a voting fiasco in Iowa, it’s possible that five leading candidates will survive beyond New Hampshire.President Trump is coming to New Hampshire, too: He’s scheduled to hold a campaign rally in Manchester tonight and will be on the Republican ballot Tuesday. Here are the latest updates from the state’s last day of primary campaigning.

Do you think that's the brakes? I think so. Should we not take this car? It seems slightly concerning. Oh. We've gone this far. Okay, well, you know. Here's your AccuWeather forecast and winter weather advisory in effect today.

Clouds and some snow sleeting. And we're just a few short days away from the primary in New Hampshire. We are flooded with presidential candidates. And if it wasn't already, the ground is cracking underneath Iowa in terms of being the first caucus in the nation. So many things to interpret. We don't even have a headline. We don't. And it's unclear actually when we will get these results. Everybody's working really hard and voters show up and expect to have their vote counted. I mean, I don't care for the caucus situation one bit. I've always maintained that the New Hampshire primary is a far better way to determine how people feel about the race. It's a direct vote.

This is a nice neighborhood. Yeah, they look like dollhouses. Well, they're very like colonial. So that's probably, oh, this is 11. Oh, they look like doll houses. Well, they're very, like, colonial. So that's probably... Oh, this is 11. Oh, it looks nice. Hi! We're from the New York Times. I'm here to meet Atlin Schmidt. Yes, he lives next door. He lives next door!

Sorry, so sorry. Bye-bye. Bye. Oops. Wasn't it 11? From the New York Times, this is The Field. I'm Lisa Lair in New Hampshire. Look at this sign.

It's the right place. Oh, sorry. Did you see us go to the wrong place? No, I didn't. A lot of people have a lot of trouble navigating this neighborhood. We went to your neighbor's. Come on in, Valerie. Thank you.

Thank you for having us. Sure. So last week, after a chaotic few days in Iowa, I flew up to New Hampshire on Wednesday night, where I met up with Daily producers Claire Tennisgetter and Jess Chung. Do you want us to take off our shoes? And the race there seemed less agonized than it had in Iowa. For months, Bernie Sanders had been way out in front with everybody else, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar,

and the rest of the field trailing far behind. What is it down or how do you want to work this? That's not especially surprising. New Hampshire is a state where independents are allowed to vote in the party primaries. So that's a group that should like him. On top of it, he's the senator from the neighboring state, Vermont. So a lot of people here have known him on a first name basis for decades. Oh, my name is Atlan Schmidt. I'm a software engineer and I've been in New Hampshire since 1978. When did you first, first learn about Bernie Sanders? My family vacationed in Vermont two weeks every year for a long time.

And I carried on that tradition for a long time as well. So even back when Bernie was the mayor, I started to know just the name. But when he was the congressman in Vermont, I actually started to follow him. And then he became the senator. I did make a stop up his senatorial campaign office, made a donation and got the senatorial T-shirt. Do you still have the shirt? Oh, yeah. I still have the shirt.

I really wanted to show my support for the guy and encourage him in his future endeavors, which turned out to be pretty big. Today, I am proud to announce my candidacy for president of the United States of America. So in 2015, when Sanders announced he was going to run for president against Hillary Clinton, he finds a lot of support in New Hampshire. And as we got closer to the primary in New Hampshire, we were doing honking waves continuously. Every Saturday morning, the Bernie team was out, and the response just got better and better and better as the weeks went by.

Even when Hillary Clinton was presumed to be the nominee, even after she narrowly won the Iowa caucuses, Allen says he could still feel the wave building. To the point where a really noticeable fraction of the people going by were responding positively to us. So we were very confident in 2016 that things were going to go well. And it did work out that way. Breaking news, NBC News projects Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary, defeating Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders crushes Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. This is a shellacking or more. It's a total rout if you look at the state of

New Hampshire. 60% for Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton at 39%. Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! Thank you, New Hampshire. And now it's on to Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond.

What do you think New Hampshire liked about him so much? I think the fact that he speaks his mind very plainly. We're pretty plain spoken here in New Hampshire. I think the things he was advocating were, even back then, things people were feeling the need for. People very much wanted change. My wife, as a state rep, went door to door, and a lot of Republicans told her they wanted change. They would have liked the good change that Bernie Sanders could have brought, but if they couldn't get that, they were going to get change anyway.

What they ended up doing, of course, is they ended up voting for Trump. And I think those people are still out there, and they still want change, and they want good change. They're not happy with what they got. We're in, we noticed in our drive up here that we're in a really beautiful, picturesque neighborhood, and we're in a very beautiful house, and you're a software engineer. And I wonder why someone like you would want a burn it down candidate? Because even though I have a nice

job right now, I was laid off from my last job when my job went to Costa Rica. They had me train up my replacements from Costa Rica, and then said, thanks, we don't need you anymore. I would like to see a sustainable economy in this country. I'm getting to retirement age. I'd like to see the opportunity to retire, perhaps with health care, which I won't have otherwise. My life would be better, I think, if President Sanders were running the joint.

So you think he's going to win here? I think he's going to win here in New Hampshire, yes. I think he will win a plurality, and I think it will be a comfortable plurality. So with days left before the primary, Sanders' base of support felt pretty secure here in New Hampshire. Our question was, what about the rest of the candidates? Because what we had just seen in Iowa was that Sanders' support had been pretty secure there too. And so, for the most part,

the more moderate candidates had been competing with one another for a share of the same group of indecisive voters. Voters who were trying to decide which candidate could best beat Donald Trump, and who didn't think that person was Bernie Sanders. And that vote kind of fragmented. The preliminary results from Iowa were showing Sanders and Buttigieg basically neck and neck. Warren was in third, and Biden was a very disappointing fourth. But New Hampshire prides itself on being contrary and ignoring the results of Iowa. So we wondered if those voters in New Hampshire who don't support Sanders, if they might start to come together around someone else.

So did you guys hear what's happening in Iowa? Yeah, booty egg, right? Bernie won the caucus, no? No, it was booty egg, right? Doesn't Iowa always mess up? Does New Hampshire do it better? I would say so, definitely. Have you followed what's happened in Iowa?

What happened in Iowa? No one knows. I think I was up until 4 o'clock in the morning the other night thinking it can't last any longer. It can't possibly last anymore. Do you think somebody came out of there looking like a winner? Looks like Bernie and Pete Buttiginger. But that's Iowa. Who cares? Iowa's job is to call the field and they didn't do that. They failed.

Right? I think Michael Bloomberg looks like a political genius at this point for avoiding Iowa. So what do you guys think about Iowa? Iowa is just a big poop. Poop. That might be the quote of the episode.

What do you make of Iowa? How do you think that changes the dynamic here? New Hampshire voters are very independent. The results of Iowa really aren't going to impact how New Hampshire votes. Oh, good Lord, no. They're in another country, you know. You need a passport to go to Iowa from New Hampshire votes. Oh, good Lord, no. They're in another country, you know. You need a passport to go to Iowa from New Hampshire. Depending on the result, it might. It might.

I don't know, just maybe seeing what those people think could influence what I'm thinking as well. I don't know. I think it was interesting. Like, I don't think people expected Joe Biden to do as poorly as he did. Does that change how you view him? No, I don't think so.

But I think it might other people. Yeah. Are you into him? I'd say like 50%. And who's the other 50? Probably Mayor Pete. Yep. Yep.

But you don't think the fact that Pete did well and Biden did poorly impacts how you now make your decision? Because I assume you want electability as a thing. Yeah, no, I think it would sway me a little bit more towards Mayor Pete. Just seeing the results there, yeah. So on Thursday afternoon, three days after the Iowa caucuses, with still no winner called... Okay, it's 3.15 on Thursday afternoon, three days after the Iowa caucuses, with still no winner called... Okay, it's 3.15 on Thursday. We're at this Pete Buttigieg rally,

and they won't let us in because it's at capacity. We show up at an American Legion hall in Merrimack, and the room is already overflowing. I'm standing on the stairs trying to get in, and I can see about 40 people just outside, also trying to get in. And actually, before he goes on stage... We are taking no vote for granted.

Obviously, we feel a lot of momentum coming here, but I know how New Hampshire is never told what to do. Buttigieg comes outside and gives a little speech to everyone waiting outside in the freezing rain. So if you're here as a supporter, thank you so much for that, and please continue to spread the word. If you're here to make up your mind, please stay tuned. We'll continue to be doing events all through the state

and hope to earn that support as we go into Tuesday. Thanks so much again. I appreciate it. And after about 45 minutes of standing around, we're able to talk our way inside. But to do what he just did, taking questions like that off the cuff. And we meet this guy named Dave Hennessy, whose wife, he calls her the boss, had just wandered away. She's going to decide for me tonight, probably, I think. Is this your wife? Yeah, that's my wife. I've been torn between Biden and Pete.

And I love Joe, and I'm looking at him. My big reason for leaning towards Joe is I'm dead sure he can beat Trump. He's convincing me that he can, too. He means Buttigieg. Is he going to Iowa? Iowa's part of it, but the fact that he can think, and I've seen it before, I've seen him doing this before, being able to talk the way he does so quickly, so fast. He'll kill Trump in a debate. Absolutely wipe him out. The fact that he seems like the winner there, we don't know, or like he did well,

is compelling to you. It is compelling. It does. I mean, let's put the elephant in the room on the table. The fact is, though, there are bigots out there that moron woman out. I'm sorry, I shouldn't say, but the woman out in Iowa who just discovered Pete was gay and then said she wouldn't vote for him because the Bible wouldn't allow it. I mean, there are people like that. Even today in 2020. Even today, in 2020, I think it's a problem. I hope to God that that kind of thinking isn't so widespread that it would cost him the election. But it worries me because we've got to get Trump out of there. Dave, are you worried about the moderate vote being split between Biden and Buttigieg? Are you worried about the moderate vote being split between Biden and Buttigieg? Well, I was really worried.

To be honest, no. Everybody, I think most people have the same opinion I have. We'd vote for a rock over Trump. So whoever wins, ultimately, the nominee is going to be anti-Trump. And I think that's priority one, two, three, four, et cetera. We've got to beat this guy. He's a disgrace. He's awful.

All my friends, a lot of my friends who are Republicans, are not going to vote for Trump. But I'm afraid they may sit out. As we're talking, Dave's wife returns. All right, so the boss is back. Hi. What do you think? Are you decided, or are you... I like Pete. I think I'm going to go with Pete.

So you're going to sell him on it? Might split the vote. He's done that before. I mean, I like Joe too, but he's just got so much energy. Again, by he, she means Buttigieg. To be clear, we both like Amy. We like Amy a lot. With Amy?

You're talking Midwest. Yeah, you're talking Midwest, and I think Pete just got... And I don't want to lose her out of the Senate, to be honest. I mean, as close as it is, I think she's got to stay in the Senate. You'll notice this is not an entirely satisfying answer. Having now talked to a ton of voters, it feels like there's this thing going on, where a lot of people personally really like Amy Klobuchar, but they sort of assume not enough other people really like Amy Klobuchar.

And then we try a version of the moderate question again. Do you think that it's more suitable for a moderate like a Biden or a Pete or a Kluber Shar to go toe-to-toe with Trump? Or do you think a progressive like Bernie Sanders is well suited to go toe-to-toe with Trump? I think it's valid, but I'm not for Bernie. I know Bernie, I think, pretty well out of Burlington, back when he was mayor of Burlington. Socialism doesn't scare me and all that. I just don't think he can get his programs through Congress.

I don't think he can do it. But are you worried that with the moderate vote being split between Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden, that that fracturing will mean that Sanders ends up winning the nomination. I don't hear it. Everybody I talk to is saying the same thing. I may be for Bernie, I may be for this and that, but I'll support anybody who's the nominee for the Democratic Party to beat Trump. That's what I hear. You're not worried that, like you two said, that you're going to cancel each other out. So if you vote Biden.

But see, I don't think that's why. I hate to say it. At the Buttigieg rally, at least, this is not proving to be a fruitful line of questioning. It's clear Buttigieg's performance in Iowa is having an influence on some moderate New Hampshire Democrats. He's got momentum. in Iowa is having an influence on some moderate New Hampshire Democrats. He's got momentum. But the sort of calculation we're wondering about, people don't even seem to process the question we're asking them. It's so far outside the way they actually seem to be thinking. So we pack up and head to an Elizabeth Warren rally. Warren seems to be in this funny no-man's land here in New Hampshire. On the one

hand, she's competing with liberal voters for Sanders, but they don't see her as authentic of a liberal choice. But on the other hand, more moderate voters see her big liberal policies as far too damaging to go up in a general election against Donald Trump. I'm a New Hampshire voter. I have no idea who I'm voting for. You're both totally undecided. Totally. That's why we're here? Yeah, you've got to listen.

So you find a lot of undecided people at Warren's events, trying to figure out what exactly they think. We're sisters. You're sisters. Yeah, you couldn't tell. No, now I see it. It's in the eyes. It's in the eyes. I'm the friend of the sisters. And she's the friend of the sisters.

And we meet these sisters, Mary and Nancy, with their friend Sue. They're all retired, and they're all really conflicted about what they think about the race. Absolutely, and I'm very concerned because there are so many Democratic candidates that the vote is going to be split and Trump is going to get in again. I mean, you can't have all of those, all of the candidates, to me, have good things and bad things about what they want.

Right. But when you've got five people, and actually there's more, but... Yeah, five mean. Right. I think the vote is going to be just so split that Trump's going to get in again. So first we're thinking, OK, here you go. This is the fractured vote thing. So do you have, like, any preference among those five?

Oh, I knew you were going to say that. I knew you were. And frankly, I don't. I like Buttigieg, but sometimes I think he's so young. He's very bright, but he's so young, I'm not sure if experience is what... I mean, look, Trump had no experience at all. And who else? Bernie, I don't know.

Bernie, I don't know. He's got a good attitude, but I'm just not certain about his policies. So do you think the party needs to unify around someone? Yes, absolutely. It's just, who do you do? Well, yes. So I'll wait till New Hampshire and see what they say, and I'll go from there. But you're voting in New Hampshire?

Oh, yes. Oh, absolutely. And you? Are you... I'm undecided. You're undecided? I have preferences. I like Elizabeth's energy. But then again, the fact that Bernie got such a jump said, well, maybe he has more support and maybe he could beat Trump.

So I said, well, maybe he's better to go with rather than Elizabeth because he did do so well in Iowa. But then we realized, not quite. They're considering Sanders as one of their choices. And then I wouldn't, I still don't think Pete's the one, so even though he did well, I'm glad he did well. So Jess circles back more directly to our favorite question. One question for you, if I may follow the question,

is do you think that Bernie did really well in Iowa as a result of maybe more moderate candidates kind of splitting up the vote among all the other candidates? Hmm. Oh, that the rest of the vote was divided and so Bernie came out on top. The more moderate voters. You mentioned that you were worried about fragmentation.

Is that something that worries you? Yeah. I never thought about that before. It never occurred to me. I understood. I was thinking, like, who's going to be the moderate versus the progressive, and who's going to take the lead in that duel. But I don't...

Again, no. I might, if I vote for Modder, I could possibly vote for Amy. New Hampshire Democrats, like Iowa Democrats, are just looking for a winning candidate. New Hampshire just has a little bit more evidence to go on because they go second. I've excluded Biden.

Why? Too old, too out of touch. He kind of is embarrassing. He was very good at CNN last night. He had a town hall. Yes. I thought he did very well. But I don't think he's, he's just too old.

And, um... Look at the age of these. He's too old, and we're like, we're too to a state that looked undeniably aware of what had happened in Iowa. A new poll had just been released that showed Buttigieg surging in New Hampshire and actually polling one point higher than Sanders at 25 percent. Meanwhile, Biden had plummeted to 11 percent. And at the debate in Manchester the night before. Unlike some of the folks up here, I don't have 40 billionaires, Pete, contributing to my campaign. Coming from the pharmaceutical industry. Sanders went after Buttigieg. We need that kind of unification when our nominee is dividing people with a politics that says if you don't go all the way to the edge, it doesn't count. A politics that says it's my way or the highway.

Are you talking about Senator Sanders? Yes. Buttigieg went after Sanders. We have a newcomer in the White House and look where it got us. I think having some experience is a good thing. Senator Warren, is that a substantial answer from Mayor Buttigieg? No.

Everyone went after both of them. Candidates, welcome. Vice President Biden, the first question is for you. In the last few days, you've been saying that Democrats would be taking too big a risk if they nominate Senator Sanders or Mayor Buttigieg. But they came out on top in Iowa. What risk did the Iowa Democrats miss?

And Biden had opened the event by acknowledging the results of Iowa. It's a long race. I took a hit in Iowa, and I'll probably take a hit here. Traditionally, Bernie won by 20 points last time. And basically trying to lower expectations in New Hampshire. I've always viewed the first four encounters, two primaries and two caucuses, as the starting point. And so that's how I do it. But why are Senator Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg...

On our way out of the hotel... Hello. Hello. Hi. We bumped into our colleague Alex Burns, who as usual was thinking smart thoughts after watching Biden debate the night before. So this is actually one of the issues for Biden if he does poorly in New Hampshire, right? That the process in Iowa is so screwed up, even on a good day, that a candidate who loses Iowa can say like, OK, that's not representative of literally anything. Right. And they've got a pretty good case to make. New Hampshire, it's not the most diverse state.

It's not a state that terribly well represents the National Democratic Coalition. It is a primary election. Right. And it is a pretty straightforward process. You can't say this is this like arcane set of hoops that voters need to jump through. So if you do end up with reasonable turnout here and Biden gets clobbered again, I don't know that you can write off a second consecutive just really limp finish. Not only is New Hampshire harder to explain away, Biden is the candidate whose entire candidacy is staked on being the electable one. The bigger picture, right, is that he came into this race as the favorite to win the nomination. He was the frontrunner nationally and he was a frontrunner in these early states. Right. Whatever his campaign is saying now about, you know, never thinking they could win New Hampshire, Iowa is always going to be very tough.

He was leading in the polls in these states when he actually announced his campaign. And this is a guy who has presented himself as the one sure bet to win the general election. And his one outcome so far has been a loss and a pretty embarrassing loss. And by all accounts from his own team, they're expecting another loss on Tuesday. Well, I'm going to head out and see Biden today. So we'll see whether anyone shows up. I'm Lisa Lair. It's possible I didn't RSVP. Okay. Yep, you did. Oh, awesome. Good. Look at me. So across town. Okay. So I'm at this Biden event. It's in a small theater right in downtown Manchester. He got a pretty good crowd. The

turnout was better than we expected. The balcony is full. They're filled the space. They're even sitting on the stage in front of a sign that says soul of the nation, which of course is a Biden slogan. So let's see how it goes. I'm going to try to find some people to talk to. Hey, hi, sorry to bother you guys. My name's Lisa Lair. I'm from the New York Times. Are you guys New Hampshire voters? Oh, where are you from? Rhode Island. Oh, cool. All right. I'll keep going. Okay. But then I started walking around. Are you living in New Hampshire now?

No, no, Long Island. You're in Long Island. Good luck finding a residence. Right. Where are you from? Boston. You're from Boston? And you?

New York. New York? New York, Michigan. Michigan? Where are you from, DC? California. California? I'm from Canada.

Oh, you're from Canada. Are you from New Mach... No. You're from New York. Oh, you're from, D.C.? California. California? I'm from Canada. Oh, you're from Canada. Are you from New York? No. You're from New York. Oh, you're from New York.

Jersey, Massachusetts. So what are you doing up here? Political tourism. As a Times journalist, how do you account for all of us here in no New Hampshire rights? This is not good. This is not good. This is not good. Are you Biden fans? No. We're here as a, we're trying to do an energy check on Joe and it's not looking good.

So, are you New Hampshire voters? No. No, we're from Rhode Island. Oh. These are also from Rhode Island. They're all Rhode Islanders. The girl with the green sweater, the lady after her may be from New Hampshire. Hi, I'm so sorry to bother you.

My name's Lisa. I'm from New Hampshire. Hi, I'm so sorry to bother you. My name is Lisa Lehrer. I'm a reporter with the New York Times. Are you a New Hampshire voter? Yes. Oh, great. You're the only one in this entire row. Are you serious?

Yeah, I'm serious. Have you seen Biden before? Yes, I did. I think he would be an extremely capable leader, yes. And have you seen Pete? Yes, I have. Thoughts? I think he's perfectly capable, too.

Seen Amy Klobuchar also. I have a more severe approach. I'll drop a candidate if they don't have their act together. And Biden has his act together? No, not at present. We both like Joe a lot, but that's not where we're going at the present time. Where are you going? I'm going with Bloomberg.

Sorry, my wife is going with Bloomberg. I'm going with Buttigieg. Okay, cool. All right, well, thank you guys. Enjoy it. Yeah, yeah. Good luck, sweetheart. Half of this crowd up here is from someplace else.

I have found two New Hampshire voters so far. I'm going to go down there. It turns out, in a year where everybody wants to elect a winner, looking like a winner by winning some states really, really matters. And that's why Iowa, despite all the chaos, despite all the confusion, is just deeply in the brains of people in New Hampshire, ahead of today's primary vote, the Democratic candidates,

especially the two leading candidates, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, made the case that the other's message was a losing one. Knowing how much depends on bringing Americans together, we cannot risk alienating Americans at this critical moment. And that's where I part ways with my friend Senator Sanders. Buttigieg warned that Sanders' left-wing proposals could turn off the voters most needed to defeat President Trump in this fall's general election. While Sanders sought to energize his anti-establishment supporters by highlighting the support that Buttigieg has received from corporate elites.

support that Buttigieg has received from corporate elites. The Times reports that with two ideologically opposed candidates leading the race and three leading rivals, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and a surging Amy Klobuchar jostling for third place, all top five candidates are likely to continue on after tonight's primary, an event that typically ends with candidates dropping out of the race.