The Daily - The Field: Why Suburban Women Changed Their Minds

Episode Date: October 26, 2020

In America’s increasingly divided political landscape, it can be hard to imagine almost any voter switching sides. One demographic group has provided plenty of exceptions: white suburban women.In the past four years, the group has turned away from the president in astonishing numbers. And many of them are organizing — Red, Wine and Blue is a group made up of suburban women from Ohio hoping to swing the election for Joe Biden. The organization draws on women who voted for the president and third parties in 2016, as well as existing Democratic voters.In today’s episode, Lisa Lerer, who covers campaigns, elections and political power for The New York Times, speaks to white suburban women on the ground in Ohio and explores their shifting allegiances and values.Guest: Lisa Lerer, a reporter for The New York Times covering campaigns, elections and political power.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily Background reading: The white suburban voters the president needs to carve a path to victory have turned away from him, often for deeply personal reasons.

Driving into the suburbs, going to a Panera in Westerville. It's probably a no better spot to anchor a story on suburban voters than a Panera. Okay, what's the deal with Panera? Actually, in 2018, Stratis would talk to me a lot about the Panera voter. The kinds of suburbs that have really shown the biggest switch have been these sort of inner ring, maybe more affluent suburban communities, and there's a lot of Paneras in those places.

I don't know. From The New York Times, this is The Field. I'm Lisa Lair in Ohio. Hi. Hi. Hi. Hi. I'm going to get some water.

I'm Lisa. Nice to meet you. I recognize you from your photo. Hi. And I'm Jess. So a few weeks ago, my colleague Jessica Chung and I went to the suburbs of Columbus to meet someone for lunch at the outdoor patio of a Panera bread. Everybody likes Panera. I mean, which admittedly was a little on the nose. And it's

delicious. We are going to meet a woman who in our reporting on the suburbs and the much discussed suburban women vote, both Jess and I independently had heard about. I'm Katie Paris. I'm 41. I live in Shaker Heights, which is a suburb outside of Cleveland. And I am working to flip Ohio blue in 2020. Katie is a lifelong Democrat who started her career in national politics. Yeah, so I met my husband in Washington, D.C. about 18 years ago, and I think I knew by the end of our second date that I might just be moving to Ohio one day.

Her husband grew up in Ohio, and they moved back to start a family there. But Katie kept commuting to D.C. for work. In 2016, when Donald Trump was elected, she just had her first son. I felt worried, and I felt kind of like a pissed off mom. Then comes 2018 and the midterm elections, where of course we saw this blue wave that flipped the House back to the Democrats and put a bunch of women into office. But in Katie's home state of Ohio, that wasn't

what happened. Ohio Democrats had not picked up a single congressional seat. And that was a very different story than many other parts of the country. Just up in Michigan, they elected an all-female statewide ticket, flipped congressional seats. I mean, 43 seats, I think, in the end flipped. 38 of them were suburban districts. And I began thinking, well, why didn't that happen in Ohio? And so I think it was the morning after the 2018 election, I remember getting dressed for the day, talking to my husband,

and just saying, I think I might need to make a change. It doesn't feel right anymore to be not focused on Ohio. So what kind of change did you make? Well, I had no idea what that was going to mean yet. But I knew there was like a thing that had happened with suburban women that had done a lot of good in other places. She knew that the blue wave in other states was due in part to a shift among suburban women. And that resonated with me particularly at a personal level because here I am as a mom raising my kids in a suburb. And so I thought, I was really drawn to this power of women engaging in politics.

And I just wanted a piece of that, you know, and to sort of figure out what that would mean here in Ohio. Because it seemed really powerful. In this election year, it can seem like the country is impossibly divided, and it's hard to imagine any group of voters changing their minds. But there's one big exception to that, and that's suburban white women. In 2016, it was their surprising support for Trump that helped push them over the edge. But in the last four years, they've changed their minds in astonishing numbers.

The midterms were the first real signal, but now polling shows that while the race between Trump and Biden is evenly split among suburban men, suburban women favor Biden by 23 points. That means that the same group that helped give Trump his seat could take it away. But will it happen in the swing state of Ohio, which bucked the trend in 2018 and is a must-win

for Republicans this year? In 2016, Trump won there by eight points. But now the race is very, very close. But now the race is very, very close. I just had that mama bear sort of response. So after this wake-up call that Katie has following the 2018 midterms... I didn't know enough. I wanted to learn more. She starts by looking at the data from Ohio. First of all, I didn't know that Black voters in Ohio are doing the work, like carrying a disproportionate share of the burden here. Meanwhile, people who look like me living in the suburbs, we are not. What she found was that not only did white suburban women in Ohio turn out for Democrats far less reliably than Black women did,

they also just turned out to vote less in general, in lower numbers. And so the obvious way to change an election was to fix both those problems. And, you know, I just thought, that's not going to magically happen. I've seen this data. I can't unsee it. I have to do something. So in 2019, Katie quits her job in D.C. and starts focusing on this full time. And so that's when I started traveling around the state, talking to suburban women,

especially in these fast-growing suburbs of Columbus. And that was when I started meeting women at places like Panera. At first, she's just using social media to identify groups of Democratic women who have come together locally around a shared but growing sense of despair over the Trump presidency

and a desire to do something. Meeting up with women over wine or coffee and hearing their stories in their suburbs, women who had never been involved in politics, no interest in politics before the 2016 election and feeling sort of like isolated in their suburbs too, like thinking it feels like it's mostly Republicans around here. You know, I'm just, I'm going to be quiet about my views. Reaching out to maybe a few other women who they thought might think like them. Getting together at the Panera.

And Katie watches as these groups grow, just through word of mouth. They would say, let's do this again next week. You know, let's do it again. And each time more women would show up. And so then they would say, let's create a secret Facebook group so that we can keep this conversation going day in and day out. And then those groups would start with like 25 women in them. And then they would grow to 50. And then all of a sudden, I mean, all of these groups now have anywhere from 200 to 1,000 women in them. Can you tell us the names of some of these groups?

Yeah, so Bay Village Nasty Women, GRR, as in like grassroots resistance, but they call themselves GRR and you have to growl when you say it because it just represents like that they're mad all the time about everything going on. At a certain point, Katie decides to start her own group, a kind of statewide super group. And I thought, well, what if we connected all of these women together so they could share all of their best ideas? And if we tapped into their voices and their networks

to make this whole thing way bigger than it is right now. She called her group...... group Red Wine and Blue. Red Wine and Blue. I thought their voices were so interesting because they were just not your typical political activist. Didn't look or sound like a political activist that you would typically think of. And so I thought they're really relatable, that other moms would connect with their stories. Because politics can feel really polarizing and divisive and like you don't want to be that girl, you know, talking about politics. So how could we change that? And I thought these women's voices are key to that.

about politics. So how could we change that? And I thought these women's voices are key to that. This is the big thing in Katie's mind, is how different these women are from what you typically expect from a political organizer. Paid political organizers are under the age of 25. They are trained with talking points and scripts and very specific ways of doing things. They probably are not talking a lot about vulnerability and courage. They're probably, and they definitely don't get to drink as much wine. They're usually from out of town. You know, unlike our women who have lived in these communities for 15 years, probably on average, some longer. And you know, like they're known as like the mom to text if there's like something

going on with the schools about whatever. So that is not your typical paid political organizer, to say the least. And I thought the other key thing about them besides their voices were who they knew. I mean, I just thought the contacts each of these women have in their phones, like there's so much power here. Contained in the context of each of these women have in their phones, like there's so much power here. Contained in the contacts of each of these women are potentially dozens of other women in their communities who may or may not have voted Democratic in 2016, but who may be open to it this year. As data driven as you try to make any campaign, data is always imperfect. What is pretty darn good, though, is what these women know about other women in their community. Like, what they know about their friend Sarah

is way more accurate than anything VoterFile knows about Sarah. And one of the ways that Katie's group is trying to appeal to a friend like Sarah is with content that is designed specifically for her. We are all about owning the narrative on what it means to be a suburban woman. The president tweeting in the last couple of months pretty often about suburban housewives of America. This is his attempt to appeal to suburban women. We have had a good time responding to that and putting, uh, basically just letting him know what we think a suburban housewife really is.

What do you think he thinks a suburban housewife in America looks like? Deferring to our husbands, very worried perhaps that Antifa is going to invade our suburbs. Um, afraid. I think we're supposed to be afraid that like low income housing is going to destroy our suburbs. Afraid. I think we're supposed to be afraid that like low income housing is going to destroy our communities. I mean, it's been going on for a while, but it was actually at his rally, I believe last Monday in Ohio. They want safe communities. Where he got up and he said, I got rid of the regulation from Obama, Biden that was destroying suburbia. OK, destroying it.

You know, Joe Biden gets elected. You know, your suburbs are going to get destroyed. And I think suburbia has got to wake up because if they get in, you know who's in charge? You know who's in charge of the program? Cory Booker. Cory Booker. He's going to send Cory Booker to come and destroy your suburbs. And the immediate reaction I got from so many women in our networks was like, where's my lipstick?

I got to get ready. Cory Booker is coming to the suburbs. This is fantastic. And the next day or the day after the NRA tweets out, all of us women should be afraid because Beto O'Rourke is also going to come to our suburbs and take our AR-15s. So we made a video. If Biden wins, Corey and Beto are coming to the suburbs. Basically where it uses a small portion of the audio of Trump. The media has got to wake up because if they get in, you know who's in charge? Cory Booker.

And then it has like four or five women like putting on their heels, putting on their lipstick, you know, and they're talking on the phone being like, yeah, Cory Booker. I know. Yeah. Did you hear? Cory's coming. I know. You better get that ballad on, girl. Cory Booker, I know. Yeah, did you hear? Cory's coming. I know, made him do. You better get that ballad on, girl. We just flipped the whole frame, you know, and just made him look like a fool.

And we believe that the impact of what that has is, okay, do you want to be on the side of this idea of this 1950s housewife that is very afraid of things that actually don't resonate in your life? Like, do you want to be on that team? Or do you want to be on this team of like hilarious, badass women who are, you know, having this really fun, smart response. And Katie says their strategy, it's working. That in addition to mobilizing existing Democratic voters, they're drawing in women who didn't vote before

or voted for a third-party candidate or voted for Trump. And it's really exciting to me to see our community include and celebrate all of these women. And honestly, every woman has a different story. But a lot of the stories have to do with being moms during the Trump presidency. And after we wrapped our meeting with Katie, she took us to meet some of these women. I'll meet you guys there, I guess. Okay, yeah, sure. Aren't you cold? I am cold.

My feet are frozen. Oh, it's like when you're reluctant to be unsure. I wish I had, like, those hand warmers. I wish I had a portable space heater that was battery-operated. After we finished talking with Katie at the Panera... Seven pumpkins, but only two Biden-Harris signs. We went to a home a few minutes away. Oh, come to the back, it says. And walked into the backyard of Hannah Dasgupta,

a member of Red Wine and Blue. She's hosting a get-together with two others from the group. Hi. The gang's all here. Cool. Oh, my God, look at this setup. There's a fire pit, blankets, and, of course, wine. I'll take some white, actually.

Okay. Yeah. Well, maybe red. It's cold. Red. Hannah. My name is Hannah Dasgupta. Our host. I am 37 years old, and I am a stay-at-home mom. And in 2016, I voted for Gary Johnson. Voted for a third-party candidate in 2016.

And Andrea. My name's Andrea Graneri. I'm 34 years old. I'm from Anderson Township, a suburb outside of Cincinnati, and I work at a public charter school. Was a lifelong Republican until 2016. In 2016, I voted for Hillary Clinton. It was the first Democrat I ever voted for. And lastly, Kate. My name's Kate Rabinovich, and I'm from the Cleveland area. I voted for Trump in 2016, and I will be voting for Joe Biden in 2020. She voted for Trump in 2016. So why don't we start by talking about 16 and like why you guys voted the way you did, and then sort of we can move into how your views changed.

Kate, the Trump voter, grew up identifying as a moderate. She was voting for the first time in 2016, and she just had her first child. Honestly, I waited till the last minute. I think I walked into the polling place right before 7 o'clock, baby in hand, and I just had a lot of really limiting beliefs based on not being someone who is really looking into the issues, reading the headlines for news, not being so three-dimensional with my thinking and just not wanting to vote for Hillary Clinton

and thinking like, oh, what's the worst that could happen, right? Lesser of two evils. He can't really do that much damage. And then, so I voted for him. But I really just thought, you know, things would not change too terribly in four years. And I didn't, I just, I didn't know. Like, it was one of those things. I'm a new, I was a new voter. I didn't realize the repercussions. But I do feel guilty.

So do you feel guilty about Gary? We turn from Kate to Hannah, the Gary Johnson voter. Fortunately, if you add up all the independent voters in Ohio, Trump still would have won. Sounds like you did that exercise. I might have done that research. I might have let myself Sounds like you did that exercise. I might have. I might have done that research. I might have let myself off the hook with that one. Yes, my vote of third party was a statement.

And I can remember a time, I believe it was during a debate in 16. I have met with women who, toward the end of their pregnancy, get the worst news one could get, that their health is in jeopardy if they continue to carry to term. When Hillary very loudly, very strongly said, I do not think the United States government should be stepping in and making those most personal of decisions. That she would defend late-term abortion. And I remember her saying it so boldly and as if this was a wonderful thing. And all of my anti-abortion upbringing just said,

what? Why would you be proud of that? Why would you be celebrating that? Why would you be wanting the world to know that that's what you stand for? Hannah grew up in a conservative household, and abortion was one of her top issues. So she had always voted Republican. In 2016, she never took Trump as a serious candidate, which opened the possibility of her voting for a Democrat for the first time. But that moment at the debate ended that. So she voted for Johnson.

But that moment at the debate ended that. So she voted for Johnson. So you wake up morning after. How do you feel? So that's the part of a democracy that we have to live with is when we lose, we see what happens. So I remember my husband said it best. We woke up, we looked at our phones and he goes, well, we did it. That's what we got.

And so we just decided, OK, well, let's just wait and see what happens. And then once he started to open his mouth again, it just all went out the window. And then there's Andrea. I get so, so, so mad at him. Who had voted for Republicans her whole life. But in 2016, she did vote for Clinton because of her dislike of Trump. So she's opposed Trump's presidency since the beginning. But this year, something really got her angry.

You know, my daughter is seven. And we had a conversation at breakfast the day after he got the positive test result. And been like, she can't get past this like why wasn't he wearing a mask like she's got to wear a mask every day all day at school and I'm like okay how do you explain to a seven-year-old like why the president of the United States is not wearing a mask and she has asked more than one time like why wouldn't he do that? It's like, I don't know how to answer you. My nine-year-old said,

Hannah jumps in. His choice of words sounds a little malicious, but he's not. He said, I'm kind of glad the president got COVID because he made fun of Biden for wearing a mask. Nine-year-old, like, excuse me, Mr. President, my nine-year-old heard you. He was listening when you made fun of us for wearing masks. I've heard this from nearly every suburban mom I've spoken to this year who plans to vote for Biden. That is less about specific policies or any one specific thing the president did or said.

It's more just the cumulative experience of watching the president through the eyes of their children. We learn how to share. We learn how to listen. We take turns. We think of others. And these are the things that are drilled into our heads as suburban women every day

because we are drilling them into the heads of our small children every single day. So when we have a leader who's holding the highest office in the land who would really benefit from a couple of days in our homes learning some of these basic things, the contrast is too great. And this, above all else, seems to have been what motivated Kate, Hannah, and Andrea to not just support Biden, but to come together and try to convince other women in their lives to support Biden, too. From non-voter to guilty voter. To activist. To voter? To guilty voter? Yes. I'm like on a verdict right now.

To activist? Activist, that's such a strong word. This is Kate, who voted for Trump. It's just not something that I ever would have described myself as if you had talked to me a year ago. Activist, sure. I'm a mom with feels, like hard feels, you know? So yeah, I, I kind of had this journey after 2016 to like. Andrea says this is a totally new kind of experience for her too.

I've in the last, just like six months have really pushed myself hard outside of my comfort zone to really speak out like on social media. I never touched politics before on, on social media and, and with other folks too. Like I have a Biden sticker on my car. I have never done that before. Um, my husband and I are in arguments about it still because he's all like, My husband and I are in arguments about it still because he's all like, your car's going to get keyed, you know. It's not that he cares, of course, that, you know, I have my politics. It's, you know, he's like, something's going to happen to the car, you know. Somebody's going to slash your tires.

But that hasn't happened. Instead, Andrea says her public support of Biden seems to be giving people a reason to connect with her, to open up about their own politics. Having a sticker on my car, it has led to conversations with people who are then like, oh, you know, and so it's, I've been surprised, you know, that I have inspired some folks to get more involved. you know that I have inspired some folks to get more involved um I had so many regrets in 2016 because I I took for granted that I just I just thought Hillary would win I thought it would be no question and so I've said since then like I'm not I'm determined not to have regrets on November 4th this time. And I'm really just pushing myself so much to do everything I can. I hear that so many times a day, Andrea.

Women in these final weeks who are just saying, every day I'm exhausted, this feels hard right now, but I don't want to feel the way I felt the day after the election last year. Or women who have changed in the meantime. I want this feeling to go away. I want to be able to have the president on TV and it be okay that my kids are in the room. There's just this stress and this sick feeling in the pits of our stomach that everyone wants to go away. I hear it every day.

Donald Trump may very well take Ohio again this year. Most polls show him slightly favored to win. But that's not because suburban women here haven't changed their minds. The latest polling shows that the suburbs of Ohio are now acting like the suburbs in the rest of the country, with Biden leading by about 20 points here. But a question I've been having is, if Trump does lose, if that sick feeling in the pits of their stomach, as Katie describes it, goes away, will they go back to the lives they lived before?

goes away? Will they go back to the lives they lived before? Do you think you'll ever vote Republican again? You see a world where that could happen? Or do you think? Whoa. I cannot imagine a Republican candidate that I would rally behind at this moment. Hannah, the Gary Johnson voter, doesn't think so. I cannot even imagine what kind of values or rhetoric or kindness they could show that would make me think I could trust them. I have not even considered that until you said it, and wow, that's mind-blowing. To think the depart... Like, that's you said it. And wow, that's mind-blowing. To think that's a huge departure. I think Donald Trump has done so much damage in the Republican Party. I don't think I trust any of them. You'd have to wipe them all out and bring in new guys. And that's, I mean,

you grew up like pretty Republican. Yeah. Republican, down the ticket, no matter what. Yeah. The full thing. Yes. Wow. That's an eye-opening question. I don't think I would either, which isn't, you know, the same kind of wow question that it was for you, Hannah. This is Andrea, the lifelong Republican who voted for Clinton.

The other piece of my journey is that, you know, Trump won in 2016. In 2017, I started my job at this school. And 100% of the students at the school are on free and reduced lunch. And 99% of them are minorities. They're students of color. So, you know, whereas before I had a lot of that more Republican ideology of, you know, hey, you have opportunities and you just need to work hard and make it happen.

Instead, I was seeing situations in which the DAC is really just truly stacked against folks. And then also now being a lot more informed and starting to understand more about the laws and the policies that are really behind a lot of the Republican candidates, I can't imagine myself going back to a Republican party ever either. And then there's Kate, the Trump voter. Yeah, if you had asked me in January, February, I probably would have said like, no, I'm still pretty moderate. Like I can see myself being a swing voter. However, like, there was so much that came to light after George Floyd with systemic racism, like the Republicans that aren't doing anything to help it. Donald Trump could be doing everything that he's doing now, but had the party resisted and, like, stepped up and spoken out, the lack of, you know, like, trust and belief in the party wouldn't have been lost. But it is.

Polling done by The Times this summer has shown that white suburban women have become more progressive on issues of race, with a strong majority having a favorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement and suburban voters in general expressing disapproval for how the president handled the protests and race relations. And for these women, it connects to their roles as mothers. George Floyd called out to his mom. That was a huge thing for me. I really felt summoned to do more and make sure that my son wasn't going to turn out. Like for me, I was like, OK, I don't want to raise a cop that that kills somebody, that murders someone and that I needed to, you know, just do a little bit more. little bit more. So I appreciate you mentioning the George Floyd and that calling out for his mama. Like I saw signs, like I still like get chills when I see that sign. Like he called out for all the mamas when he called out for his mama. And it, it, it does. It gives me chills every time.

Um, yeah, you called him a speakable force. Cause I'm not going to lie and say, like, in February, I was worried about racism in America. Like, I wasn't. And I think it really, like, it blew the horn and brought the attention of so many women. As I'm listening to these women talk about George Floyd, it occurs to me that in the last four years, they didn't just switch parties. They're talking about a deeper change in their values. I think it was just more the things that were brought to light that I, as a very white, privileged, suburban woman, did not realize was a problem because it wasn't my problem. And needing to not only, like, acknowledge these problems, but we can't only be self-absorbed in our choices. Like, I have to think of everybody.

So if I'm voting against Donald Trump, that's not a vote for me or a vote for my son. That's a vote for, like, everyone's sons, right? This is a pretty profound shift in voting behavior. I asked Hannah, who in 2016 refused to vote for Hillary Clinton because of her position on abortion, whether her support for Biden means she's reconciled that. I wonder if there's something about how Biden approaches the issue that makes it easier for you. I don't know that Biden is the one that has changed my mind on it. I've also seen examples in the lives of people close to me where it's forced me, it's required me to

complicate my understanding of the issue, where as once it was a black and white issue of life and death. I've become aware of different medical conditions and different things that I'm embarrassed to say at 37 years old, I honestly didn't know. You know, I was out there with my fists in the air, pro-life, pro-life, and had no idea the repercussions of what I was saying and doing. And there's people near and dear to me who have had really awful experiences. And that just makes me take a step back and realize that I don't really get a voice in the most intimate details of their life.

I had a very similar journey on the abortion thing, too. Andrea joins in. Because you said you grew up pretty Catholic. Yeah, where I did have a moment when I realized like I can be pro-choice for myself, but it's not my place to judge somebody else. And it is like a light bulb moment and one that, I don't know about you, but I felt shame for the amount of years I've spent thinking I knew something about somebody else's experience. So in other words, the candidates didn't change, you changed.

That's right. The candidates didn't change. I changed. Alright, bye guys. Bye. Have safe and good drives home. Thank you. Oops. Don't break her door. That was was fun i feel like it was so um you know like i've had a lot of conversations with voters about their politics in my life like a lot and i feel like that was so emotional like it felt heavy yeah you know didn't you feel that way? Yeah, just everyone's emotions were so raw because

these changes happened within months of time. That's true. And they were major. That was the part I didn't, sorry, my teeth are chattering. I know. That was the part I didn't anticipate. Okay, heat. Where are we going? Food and heat. Pull it up, yeah. Okay. Okay, okay. It's not that, it's October. It should not be, it's freezing. Here's what else you need to know today. The United States reported more than 85,000 new cases of the coronavirus on Friday, more than on any single day since the start of the pandemic. At the same time, more than 41,000 Americans

are currently hospitalized with the virus, a 40% rise in the past month. The numbers confirm that a major surge in infections is underway across the country. And the Times reports that several aides to Vice President Mike Pence, including his chief of staff, have tested positive for the virus, a fact that the White House sought to keep from becoming public. Despite the infections, Pence has continued to campaign in public, at times without a mask.

So CDC guidelines say that Vice President Pence should quarantine for 14 days. Now, I understand the White House is trying to get around that by saying the vice president is an essential worker. But Mark, how is going all over the country, how is that campaigning? How is that essential work? It's not like he's helping to contain the... Pressed on why that was the case, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, appearing on CNN on Sunday, claimed that Pence was exempt from quarantine rules.

I'm not saying he's not campaigning. I'm saying that that is only part of what he's doing. And as we look at that, essential personnel, whether it's the Vice President of the United States or anyone else, but he's not to continue on. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.