The Daily - The Harris Honeymoon Is Over

Episode Date: September 9, 2024

Is Kamala Harris’s surge beginning to ebb? That’s the question raised by the recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which finds Donald J. Trump narrowly ahead of Ms. Harris among likely voters nationwide.Nate Cohn, who covers American politics, explains why some of Ms. Harris’s strengths from just a few weeks ago are now becoming her weaknesses, and the opening that’s creating for the former president.Guest: Nate Cohn, who covers American politics, explains why some of Ms. Harris’s strengths from just a few weeks ago are now becoming her weaknesses, and the opening that’s creating for the former president.Background reading: Both candidates have scant opportunity to shift the electorate, but for Mr. Trump, opinions are largely fixed. Ms. Harris is still unknown to many.How the fight to define Ms. Harris will shape Tuesday’s presidential debate.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily. A major new poll from the Times finds that the political honeymoon is over for Vice President Kamala Harris. Today, my colleague Nate Cohn, on how some of Harris's strengths from just a few weeks ago are now becoming her weaknesses and the opening that that is creating for Donald Trump. It's Monday, September 9th. Nate, welcome back to the show. Thanks for having me. So, Nate, you have always made clear to us that in a presidential campaign, polls are

a snapshot of a political moment in time. And the last time we took that kind of snapshot, back in August, Kamala Harris had just replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee. And for Harris, it was a very good snapshot. Talk to us about this latest poll that we did and what it reveals about this moment in time. Well, when we last talked, we had just found Kamala Harris moving ahead of Donald Trump in the key battleground states.

And now we have a little bit of a different story. The most recent poll today shows Donald Trump narrowly ahead of Kamala Harris nationwide, 48 to 47%. And how should we understand that? I mean, that is a very, very close race. What's behind it? It's a very close race. And before we go too much further, it's worth putting a few caveats out there.

Not many other polls show Donald Trump in a lead nationwide. In fact, this is the first poll to show him with a lead in nearly a month. So we have to be cautious until there are other polls that back it up. It's possible this is a little bit of a statistical outlier, but I do think it's possible, maybe even likely, that Trump has been gaining ground over the last few weeks. Kamala Harris enjoyed a fantastic month from the end of July through the Democratic convention. It's easy to imagine how that propelled her numbers to unsustainable heights. And the last two weeks, while they've been arguably perfectly fine for Kamala Harris, they haven't

been the same as they were for much of last month. So it wouldn't be terribly surprising if her numbers have begun to fade a bit. Okay. So basically there is a chance that this poll is telling us that the honeymoon is over, so to speak, right? The momentum is no longer propelling her forward and instead Trump is ascendant. That's right. It would suggest that she's come a little bit back to earth now that there isn't this wave of euphoria that greeted her initial candidacy.

Okay, so caveats aside, break these results down for us. So back in August, what you told us was that Harris appeared to be benefiting mightily from being the fresh face in the race, not Biden, not Trump, but instead a kind of hazy democratic ideal, somebody who wasn't taking too many bold positions or really defining herself with great detail in any way at all. That's right. I mean, I likened it to her being something like a generic Democrat. And that sounds a little insulting, but it's really not. When pollsters ask, would you rather vote for a generic Democrat or Donald Trump, generic Democrat does great. And that's more

or less how Kamala Harris was running, right? She was advancing boilerplate democratic messaging on abortion and helping the middle class and democracy. And the risk involved in that though, was that by running as a fairly generic candidate, that she was forfeiting the opportunity to more clearly define herself in the mind of the public. And I think that the polls suggest some early signs that now that that euphoria has faded, that the public is still hungering for a little bit more about Kamala Harris, and she hasn't provided it yet. And that that's hurting her a little bit among some critical constituencies that maybe don't pay as much attention to politics or who aren't as highly

engaged in politics as others. And which voters exactly are we talking about, Nate? Well, I think we can break it down into a few groups. And I think one group of groups are the traditionally democratic constituencies, young black and Latino voters. She's doing a lot better than Joe Biden was, but she's still not doing quite as well as Democrats usually do. So in the poll, we find Harris ahead 78 to 14 among black voters, for instance.

That's a lot better than Joe Biden was doing in many of our polls, but it's not the 90, 10 sort of margin that Democrats usually get. We can repeat that story for young voters and Latino voters as well. And in each of those cases, our poll finds a really disproportionate share of those voters saying that they don't feel like they've yet learned enough about Kamala Harris, that there's still a lot more that they need to learn before they're comfortable with her. In a way that's not so true for many other constituencies like college-educated voters or older voters.

Okay. So the same voters who were a problem for Biden are still a problem for Harris. I mean, she's improved on his numbers, but not so much that it's propelled her solidly into any sort of lead. These are voters who lean Democrat potentially, but are not necessarily coming home to the party just yet. And a big reason for that is because they don't know enough about her. That's right. And I think the numbers are pretty striking. For young people, a majority of 18 to 29-year-olds

say they feel like they need to learn more about Kamala Harris. More than 40% of black and Latino voters say the same. And it may be that there is no deep problem here, and that it's just a matter of time, that as voters tune in and see advertisements and watch debates, they'll come around to Kamala Harris. The poll doesn't really show that this is an extraordinarily deep problem, but it does show that she hasn't made the sale yet. I mean, the thing that's really interesting about this is the fact that, you know, some

key voters say they don't know much about her, but it's not like she hasn't staked out any policy positions, right? I mean, we did a whole much about her, but it's not like she hasn't staked out any policy positions, right? I mean, we did a whole episode about her economic plans for new homeowners and parents, but what this poll suggests is that that really isn't breaking through to people. I mean, it's in fairness, it's only been a few weeks since she launched her candidacy. And many of the groups we're talking about young black Latino voters, these are not necessarily voters who are the most highly engaged. They turn out at lower rates.

They watch cable news at lower rates. So it's entirely plausible that when these voters do tune in and many will in time, that they'll find they like a lot of what Kamala Harris has to say. Right. Most of the electorate is not living in the political science seminar that we are here at the New York Times. Most of the electorate is going about their daily lives, trying to find parking spaces, and bringing their kids to school. That's exactly right. And when you're trying to think about how the polls change from week to week or month to month, that person probably had heard at some point something good about Kamala.

You know, they hadn't necessarily heard her economic policies, but the vibes were good, as they say, and that person was a little bit blikelier to tell the pollster, oh yeah, I'll vote for her. And now that that's gone away, there's nothing for them to hang on to at the moment. She didn't fully make the sell, and now they've reverted back to being undecided or in some cases saying they'll vote for Donald Trump, and that could change again between now and November. Interesting.

Meanwhile, Trump is doing pretty well among those constituencies that usually back Republican candidates. Donald Trump leads among voters over age 65 and over age 45 in the poll. He has a huge lead among white working class voters, 66% to 30%. Oh, wow. And that group's around 40% of the electorate. It's more than black and Latino voters combined. So that's a big advantage for him to have already sort of locked in, lock sided support among his core constituencies while Kamala Harris is

still working to rebuild parts of the Democratic coalition. So basically what we're seeing is that the gains she's made with Democrats turn out to be not enough to outweigh Trump's growing strength with white working class and with older voters, at least so far. So far. And it is worth noting, by the way, and emphasizing what you said, that this is growing strength. Donald Trump is doing better among older voters and among white working class voters in this poll than he was against Joe Biden.

So there has been a little bit of a trade off here for Democrats in selecting a relatively liberal, younger, non-white candidate perhaps, and that there's been just a little bit of a trade off with groups that were Joe Biden's relative strength, even though he wasn't necessarily excelling among those voters either. So where Biden was doing well with older voters, you know, chipping away at this white working class difference, Harris is actually falling behind. Exactly. So if people don't quite know what her message is, what is it that they want? What are they saying to you in this poll that they want that Harris is not giving them?

Well, the overarching thing that voters say they want is change. 61% of voters say they want major change from Joe Biden. A majority of voters say the country's heading in the wrong direction. Only a quarter think the economy is good or excellent. This is a dissatisfied electorate. And at the moment, they're not convinced that Kamala Harris offers the solution to the problems that concern them. Only 25% of voters say Kamala Harris represents major change. Interesting.

A majority, 55%, call her more of the same. Donald Trump, in contrast, who in many respects is very much a candidate of the past, is seen as bringing major change by a majority of voters and only 35% think he's more of the same. So at this time when Americans are dissatisfied and looking for something different, Donald Trump appears to have a really big advantage over Kamala Harris in representing a major departure from the status quo. Fascinating. So in some of these voters minds, Harris is an extension of Biden. I mean, if you're the Harris campaign and you're looking at this poll, you're probably going to want to create as much daylight as possible between your positions and Biden's positions.

That's right. And the poll suggests it's even a little worse than that for Harris and that voters don't just think she's sort of similar to Joe Biden. They may also partly blame her for some of what they think is wrong with the country today.

I mean, more than half of voters, 63% of voters say she bears at least some of the blame for the problems at the border. A of voters say she bears at least some of the blame for the problems at the border. A majority say that she bears at least some of the blame for the state of the economy and rising prices. That's surprising to me. The vice president is hardly considered a powerful person, but voters nonetheless associate her enough with the current administration that not only do they think she doesn't represent

change, but she may also be partly responsible for what's wrong with the status quo. Right. She's getting saddled with some of the worst things associated with the Biden administration, which is pretty interesting because it sort of in a way answers an open question we had after the Democratic National Convention, which did a lot of work to tell her story as a change candidate. That was the story that they told about her. And when we came out of that convention, the question was, okay, you know, the people inside the

convention hall believe that, but did everybody else in the country? And I think what it seems to be this poll is telling us is that we are starting to get an answer to that, and the answer is no, they didn't. That's right. And not only did the convention fail to define her, but it left the Republicans with an opening to define her instead. And the poll offers some hints that those Republican attacks are beginning to work and leave voters with an impression that the Harris campaign maybe doesn't want them to have. We'll be right back. So Nate, what have Republicans been able to do when it comes to defining Harris? I think the poll shows that they've made some progress on two fronts.

She thinks she's going to bring down prices. Then why, here's a simple little few words. Why didn't you do it, Kamala? Why didn't you do it? You've been there three and a half years. One is in tying Harris to the Biden administration's policies on immigration and the economy. I can say that with everything, why hasn't she secured the border? You know, she was the border czar, right? She was the border czar. It was a big deal. She says now. Before the break, I mentioned that a majority of voters say she's partly responsible, at least for the state of the border and rising prices.

But she was in charge and it was the worst. This was the worst border in history. There's never been a border in the world like this. They've also made some progress in defining her as too far to the left. Comrade Kamala Harris. I call her comrade because she is a radical left Marxist. She wants open borders. We've heard Trump call her comrade Kamala.

And the poll shows some signs that that's working. Overall, 47% of likely voters say Harris is too liberal or too progressive on the issues. That's not extraordinarily alarming for her campaign. It's under half. It's not necessarily a deal breaker for a majority of voters, but it's worth contrasting that with Trump's position as only 32% of voters say he's too conservative, which implies that the preponderance of the electorate doesn't really have any reservations about Trump's ideological

positioning at all. They don't think he's too far to the right in the same way that voters seem to think Harris is too far to the left. Interesting. So she's still comrade Kamala, but he's occupying the political middle, which is surprising because Trump, I think of as fairly far to the right on the issues. I mean, immigration, abortion. How do you understand this finding and what you're seeing here, Nate? It's definitely true that there are some issues like immigration where Trump has staked out a pretty conservative position. But there are a lot of issues where Trump really isn't that conservative for a Republican.

I mean, if you a decade ago told me about a Republican who had the support of an RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, but was opposed by Dick Cheney, who was pretty cagey on his position on abortion, by the way, even though he may have been responsible for appointing the justices who overturned Roe vs. Wade. I think we would recognize that candidate as being one who was doing a lot of work to try and occupy something like the political middle. And I think that's especially true on the economy as well, his positions on trade and entitlements are very different than Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan was. I think he's done more work than people give credit for

to position himself in a way that's amenable to a certain kind of populist moderate voter. Right, he did kind of put his finger on something in the American electorate and change Republican orthodoxy. I mean, the fact that he speaks in favor of entitlements and not against is so different from the Paul Ryan era. Yeah. And for millions of voters, that was what was most alienating about the old brand of Republican. For a century, the Democrats were defined by being the party

of the working class against big business. And Donald Trump has complicated that story in a way that really matters. Okay, so what else does this poll tell us about Trump's strengths? I mean, you mentioned earlier that voters really see him as a change candidate, despite the fact that, you know, he's already been president, we kind of know his policies. But I guess what this poll is suggesting is that he's a change from Biden. As you said, that's what voters want. So where else is he doing well?

I think the biggest thing that we haven't talked about is the economy. In every poll, we ask people what's the most important issue of their vote, and every time they say it's the economy and the cost of living. And every time they also say that they think that Donald Trump would do a better job than the Democratic candidate, whether it was Joe Biden before, or Kamala Harris now, at handling the issue. In this poll, Donald Trump has a double digit lead on who would do a better job of handling the economy. And it's worth noting that his strength is particularly pronounced

among some of those demographic groups we were talking about earlier, like young voters and Hispanic voters. Those are two disproportionately low income groups who say that Donald Trump is better on the economy than Kamala Harris by a pretty considerable margin, even though those groups still narrowly back Harris overall. So that suggests a potential opportunity for Donald Trump and a liability for Kamala Harris. Does this poll show any potential weaknesses for Trump?

Oh, of course. Donald Trump is a deeply flawed candidate who very well might lose this election and lost the last one after all. The poll shows that a majority of voters have an unfavorable view of him, as has been in the case in every time CNN poll we've ever conducted. A majority of voters say he's a risky choice for president, not a safe choice. Harris does have some advantages on the issues too. She has a big advantage on abortion, which is the second most important issue after the economy in the poll. She has a big advantage on the issues too. She has a big advantage on abortion, which is the second most important issue after the

economy in the poll. She has a big advantage on democracy, another major issue for voters and one that was a big factor in the democratic success in the midterm elections. And Democrats also have an enthusiasm advantage in the poll. They were likelier to say they would vote than Republicans as well. And in a closely fought election, that could yield a slight turnout advantage that could easily be decisive. So there are real reasons in the poll

why Kamala Harris may ultimately win. It's a really close race. And Donald Trump is no political juggernaut, despite all of the big advantages that he has in this race in terms of people wanting change and him being the candidate to offer it. So this poll is not all bad news for Harris and shows, as you said, just how close this race really is. Yeah, and close honestly is a little bit of an understatement. The polls today

are closer than the polls were in 2020, than they were in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000, really any election in the era of modern polling. And Kamala Harris is still a relatively undefined candidate. Voters want to hear more about her and they're gonna hear more about her over the next two months. So there's a lot of room for the race to shift as close as it is today. So Nate, given everything that we've talked about,

you know, the Harris strategy in this campaign has relied on being this idealized Democrat, not too fleshed out, but standing for the popular elements of a theoretical Democratic candidacy. If that isn't working anymore, or isn't working as well as she'd hoped, it does raise a lot of questions about her strategy. I mean, it seems like what this poll is telling us is that just attacking Trump relentlessly, for example, is not enough.

That she has to become something clearer in the minds of voters. In other words, she can't afford to get away with just saying, I'm not Trump. She has to actually articulate what it is that she stands for. I think there's a lot of truth to that. I think voters are going to need to have some clear sense of who she is and what she stands for. There's still time for her to provide that answer to voters, but if they don't, the Trump campaign is going to do it. The other issue though, is that they probably do eventually need to make this campaign about Trump again. Harris is a much more popular candidate than Joe Biden was, but fundamentally, an up or down referendum on Donald Trump is the

clearest path to a democratic victory in this election. That's how Joe Biden won last time was by almost being irrelevant and then allowing voters to cast an up or down vote on whether they wanted four more years of Donald Trump. If Harris can get back to that point where she's not so important and the only thing voters are doing is voting on whether they like Trump or not, that could be a win for her. But in order to get there, she needs to sort of solve some of these problems and make voters comfortable with her so that they can then let their dislike of Trump be the decisive factor in the race.

And the debate coming up is the first of many opportunities that she'll have to close that sale over the final two months of this election. And to that point, the debate on Tuesday, what should we be looking for, Nate? One easy way to look at the debate is just whether it's fundamentally about Harris or whether it's fundamentally about Trump. If after the debate we're talking about Harris's flip flops on the issues or whether she's too far to the left or her handling of immigration, she's in trouble. She's not going to win the election, any of those issues. The most she can do is be able to move past them to sort of satisfy those concerns enough

to focus on Trump. So if we're talking instead about Donald Trump's conduct on January 6, his views on abortion, Project 2025, if we're talking about his behavior, like was the case after the first presidential debate in 2020. That's a sign that not only did Harris sort of satisfy these concerns that we've been talking about, but she also then allowed the election to pivot back towards Donald Trump. In the end, Harris needs this election to be about Donald Trump for her to win. She has to be able to satisfy the concerns about her and then turn the focus back on

him. Well, Nate. Sabrina. Thank you very much. We'll be watching. Thanks for having me. We'll be right back. Here's what all you should know today. On Friday, the judge overseeing Donald Trump's criminal case in Manhattan postponed his sentencing until after election day, a significant victory for Trump as he tries to overturn his conviction

and win back the White House. In his ruling, Judge Juan Mershon cited the quote, unique timeframe this matter currently finds itself in. He had previously planned to hand down Trump's punishment on September 18th, just seven weeks before election day. While the decision will avert a courtroom spectacle before the election, the delay itself could still affect its results, keeping voters in the dark about whether Trump will eventually spend time behind bars. And in Venezuela, the opposition leader who was

widely seen as the true winner of this summer's presidential elections, fled the country to Spain. And Mundo Gonzalez is globally recognized as the winner of Venezuela's presidential elections in July, but that country's election board instead announced Nicolas Maduro, the incumbent, as the winner. Last week, Maduro's government issued a detention order against Gonzalez, accusing him of, quote, crimes associated with terrorism and prompting him to go into hiding. Since the election, more than 2,000 people

have been arrested and dozens have been killed in protests throughout the country. Today's episode was produced by Carlos Prieto and Nina Feldman. It was edited by Rachel Quester with help from Patricia Willans, contains original music by Rowan Nimeshto and Alicia Baetube, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Bunberg and Ben Landsferk of Wonderly. That's it for the daily.

I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.