The Daily - The Last Senate Seat

Episode Date: December 6, 2022

Georgia voters are heading to the polls for the final battle of the 2022 midterms — the runoff election between Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker.Both parties have their own challenges: Republicans have a candidate quality issue in Mr. Walker, and Democrats are concerned about the turnout of their voter coalition. One side, though, already seems resigned to losing.Guest: Maya King, a politics reporter covering the South for The New York Times.Background reading: On the eve of Georgia’s Senate runoff, Mr. Warnock warned his supporters about being overconfident, and Mr. Walker urged Republicans to flood the polls.The runoff will answer a big question — what’s more powerful: a candidate’s skills and experience, or the tug of political partisanship?For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

From New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today in Georgia, voters will cast ballots in the only congressional race from the midterms that remains unresolved, the Senate contest between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. My colleague, Maya Kin, has been following the race and explains why one side already seems resigned to losing. It's Tuesday, December 6th. Tuesday, December 6th. So Maya, Georgia again.

A runoff again. I mean, there's been a lot of episodes of The Daily where we joke that we're experiencing deja vu. But this is truly a case of history repeating itself. It is. And for Georgia voters, they've been here before and have done this. Runoffs are becoming commonplace in the politics of this state. Right, right. And kind of probably painfully common. So before we talk about the Senate runoff that's going to be happening today on Tuesday between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. Let's talk about how and why we got here. The last time, Maya, that we talked to you was right before election day,

the midterm election day. So let's start the clock back then. Sure. Well, right now in Battleground, Georgia, new polling shows a heated Senate race between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker. What we already knew was going to happen was that the Senate race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker would be a really close one. Raphael Warnock in our poll has a five-point lead. At this time, Warnock leaves Walker by just three points. You have two candidates there who are essentially at a statistical tie. All of the polls were showing the race within the margin of error.

So when it comes to the Senate race, we might not have a winner on Election Day in part because of a third-party candidate who is pulling about five to six percent of the vote right now. We could be looking at this race into December. And a couple of weeks really before Election Day, organizers, campaign operatives were starting to prepare for a scenario in which they would have to continue campaigning for an extra four weeks. Georgia is again the center of national politics after a historic midterm election. One of the biggest races on the ballot is now heading

for a runoff. It is official. Right, that there would be a runoff because neither candidate got enough votes to win outright. Exactly. Incumbent Democrat Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Hershel Walker finish at 49 percent each. But Warnock finishes first with roughly 35,000 more votes. Under Georgia law, if no candidate receives that 50 percent, it must go to a runoff. was Raphael Warnock finishing several thousand votes shy of the 50% threshold needed in Georgia to outright win an election. Right. Which brings us to today's runoff. And beyond Warnock's not big enough to avoid a runoff lead on election night, what did the results from the general election tell us about the relative strength of these two candidates and about the political stakes of the runoff itself?

So we come out of election night with a pretty clear view of what each candidate has to do in order to win four weeks later in the runoff. And the challenges are really mounting at that point for Hershel Walker. Georgia's governor, Brian Kemp, secures this resounding victory for conservatives in the state. But there's a 200,000 vote deficit between his win and Hershel Walker's runoff result. So that means there are over 200,000 conservative-leaning voters in the state who were fine with Governor Kemp and were in favor of Republican control of the state,

but still had concerns about Hershel Walker, in fact, didn't cast a ballot for him during the general election. And just to make sure I understand this, this is ticket splitting. This is the idea that lots of Republicans go into the voting booth or the machine and they pick a Republican governor, but they actively reject Herschel Walker. Exactly. And that doesn't necessarily mean

that they vote for Raphael Warnock. Some of them voted for the third party candidate. Some of them wrote in Mickey Mouse. And some of them left the ballot completely blank. But that's still not good news for Herschel Walker. And that's the ground that he has to make up now. Right. And 200,000 votes is just a lot of votes. There's no way around that. I mean, it's a big flashing red light of a problem, politically speaking. So how did Republicans understand the extent of that gap? So many

Republicans not voting for the Republican nominee for Senate. Well, so here we see Republicans' biggest concerns about candidate quality coming to fruition, where Herschel Walker's past, his domestic violence allegations, the stories about the children that he fathered who he wasn't in touch with, about the women who said that he had paid for them to have abortions despite the fact that he himself said that he was staunchly against the procedure. The outlandish campaign speeches that he had repeatedly on the trail and the ways that he misspoke, all of these had a compound effect on Georgia's electorate and turned off a really important slice of the electorate, these moderate conservatives who ultimately decided not to vote for him.

And what about for Democrats? What did the election tell them about Warnock and about his chances in this runoff? So Democrats have their share of challenges cut out for them as well here. The biggest being the fact that they have to turn out now their same coalition of voters. And it's just a more complicated scenario because you're asking people to come back to the polls in a shorter period of time.

And the Democratic coalition in Georgia just consists of an array of different kinds of voters that you now have to corral back to cast ballots. But the other big thing here, too, is what is going to motivate them to get back to the polls. And what we've learned from the election, of course, is that Democrats maintained their control of the United States Senate. So the argument that Georgia would yet again decide control of the chamber is essentially moot. And so there's this sense of nervousness that sets in among organizers and Democratic leaders in Georgia, that it would be more difficult for them to get their voters back to the polls, and that the seat may indeed be lost if there wasn't enough enthusiasm, particularly among Democratic base voters in Georgia,

who are feeling pretty tired after these last few years of campaigns and elections. Right. So what you're saying is that heading into this runoff, neither party seems to have the kind of all-out, enormous motivation for the race. I mean, Democrats because they already control the Senate, Republicans because they've just seen very vividly that, in this case, hundreds of thousands of their own voters have soured on Walker. So the question would seem to become, which party will somehow summon more motivation in what is kind of a low-motivation electoral situation. In an election that is decided entirely by motivation, by voter turnout. Right.

So there's this sense that nobody has the upper hand, and that's just a key feature of Georgia politics at this point. Fascinating. So given that very quirky, low-motivation situation, in which motivation matters a lot, what ends up happening? How do things proceed on both sides? And let's start with the Democrats. So Democrats essentially launch this all-out, multi-million dollar advertising voter mobilization campaign. By the final week of the runoff, we see $54 million spent by the Warnock campaign and Democratic-aligned groups.

These are serious times, and the people of Georgia deserve a serious person to represent them. Online, YouTube and Facebook, almost every other ad is a Warnock advertisement. As a pastor, as a son of Savannah, I know the problems Georgians are facing. Even on conservative radio stations. I voted Republican most of my life and I was proud to support Brian Kemp. The more I heard about Herschel Walker, I became concerned. The message is coming from surrogates who are conservative voters who supported Brian Kemp, but say in these advertisements... I just can't get past Herschel Walker's lack of character. The fact that he lies so freely is very concerning to me. ...that they themselves have concerns about Herschel Walker.

At the end of the day, I have to vote for someone that I can trust and that has integrity. And I don't believe that is Herschel Walker. What makes Warnock's advertisements so compelling at this final stage of things is that Warnock himself is really no longer the messenger of this anti-Walker mantra that his campaign has really adopted. You ever watch a stupid movie late at night, hoping it's going to get better, don't get better, but you keep watching it anyway? On TV, one advertisement that has really gotten a lot of attention. Okay, I've seen this video. Is a focus group of sorts where you have about eight different voters watching just a series of videos. It makes me want to laugh and then it makes me think we're in trouble.

That show all of Herschel Walker's more outlandish campaign speeches. What the hell is he talking about? Is he serious? Is he for real? A werewolf can kill a vampire. Did you know that? I never knew that. This video is ridiculous. That's 35 seconds of my life I'll never get back. Why would I want someone like that leading the state of Georgia? He's completely unqualified for this really, really serious job. And all the advertisement is, is just a look at their reactions. No one's watching this and being like, oh man, that guy's got it together. It is embarrassing. Let's call it what it is. It is embarrassing. And I can say that in my conversations with voters and others around the state, while they're being blanketed with these advertisements, they really are seeming— Which is annoying.

Exactly. But they really are seeming to break through. And finally, one of the most effective tools that Democrats have at their disposal now is their ability to bring out the biggest stars of the party to come and campaign in Georgia. You know, I know it feels like we just did this, and that's because we did. I think the biggest example, of course, is former President Obama making a second trip to Georgia in less than six weeks to re-campaign for Raphael Warnock in the heart of Atlanta. But I'm here today for the same reason that I was here the last time, to ask you to vote one more time for my friend and your outstanding senator, Raphael Warnock.

Raphael, warm up! It's an event that brings thousands of supporters, galvanizes people, and excites them to not only turn back out and vote, but to go back to their communities, families, and friends, and get them to go back to the polls as well. Mm-hmm. And what specifically was Obama's message at this event? Some folks are asking, well, if Democrats already have control of the Senate, why does this matter?

He laid out in pretty clear terms all the ways that a 51st seat in the Senate could actually be very helpful to Democratic voters. Let me break it down for you. An extra senator gives Democrats more breathing room on important bills. It prevents one person from holding up everything. And it'll help prevent Republicans from getting a filibuster-proof majority that could allow them to do things like passing a federal abortion ban. So that one vote in the Senate could make all the difference. So the Democratic strategy is to do everything humanly possible, to leave no stone unturned, no dollar unspent,

you know, pull out all the stops. Yes, and to get as many voters who cast ballots on November 8th back to the polls, preferably before Election Day on December 6th. Right, early voting. Yes, or on Election Day. And so really the power in Democrats' efforts is all the more pronounced because Republicans aren't matching it. We'll be right back. So Maya, what does the Republican Party campaign for Hershel Walker end up looking like? Well, again, you have this control of the United States Senate already having been decided that kind of complicates their campaign message too.

that this would come down to control of the United States Senate in Georgia again, because that would allow them far more resources and manpower to be able to bolster the campaign of a candidate we've already established has a lot of difficulties in getting his message out there. How much money does the Walker campaign ultimately raise? It's far less money, to be sure. At the same time that we're seeing Democrats pour out close to $55 million on the airwaves, Republicans have a little less than $25 million. Oh, wow. So really just like half. Yes. And so, I mean, what that means is for every one Herschel Walker advertisement that you're seeing, you've got two to three Raphael Warnock advertisements. The message

is just getting really drowned. And then there are the ongoing problems with Herschel Walker's campaign itself. In a crucial window, just before the Thanksgiving weekend, there were about five days where Walker was nowhere to be found. This was a weekend that saw two full days of early voting on Saturday and Sunday. This was an opportunity in the eyes of Democrats and Republicans to just hit the ground running, campaigning and getting your message out there. And even for a candidate like Walker, who was at a fundraising deficit, he could have at least made up some ground with voters that he needed during this period. during this period. And I know this was significant because a number of the conservative leaders that I spoke to who have long defended Herschel Walker through the abortion allegations, through the outside children, were really scratching their heads at this decision, saying, look, I don't know how we explain this one away. This was the time that we needed, and we can't get it back.

Fascinating. And when Walker does reemerge on the campaign trail, the scene at his events is far more muted. The crowds are smaller. The excitement from him and his campaign just isn't as palpable as it was during the general election. just isn't as palpable as it was during the general election. So as his campaign itself seems to be flailing and quite low energy,

what's happening with the larger Republican Party apparatus? How involved are they in trying to support Walker in this runoff? Not as involved as the Walker campaign would like to see them be. The biggest name who could come and visit Georgia at this stage would be the former president, Donald Trump. But both Trump's aides and Walker's came to an agreement that that just wouldn't be a good idea, that it would alienate this slice of the electorate, the moderate conservatives that Walker needed to win over. So the next best bet there would be these figures who have, in Republican politics,

been very popular and have campaigned for candidates who have gone on to be successful in their campaigns. Figures like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or Virginia's Glenn Youngkin. But those leaders didn't come to visit Georgia either. And the most that they did, at least in the case of Governor DeSantis, was attach their name to a fundraising email for Herschel Walker. The people who end up coming to visit Georgia... I've come to really admire Herschel Walker and his family. ...who we see most often in this runoff period...

How about a round of applause for him and his family who put up with all this crap? ...are Senators Lindsey Graham... Georgia is a freedom state. ...Ted Cruz... Georgia is a freedom state. Ted Cruz. Georgia is a red state. And these are folks who do have some sway with the conservative base in Georgia, and they certainly help Herschel Walker deliver a campaign message, but they don't have that same level of appeal with the voters

that Herschel Walker desperately needs to win over in this runoff. Which is moderate Republican voters. Exactly. Do not wait. As soon as you can go vote, go vote. And I probably should add that Georgia's governor, Brian Kemp, who does have a solid track record of appealing to these more moderate conservative voters in the state, is campaigning with Walker in these final few weeks. Who do you want to fight for you in the 90th state Senate? Do you want a guy that represents our values like Herschel Walker? Do you want somebody that stood with Joe Biden 96 percent of the time? of my that stood with Joe Biden 96% of the time. Probably not as much as Walker would like. He's done one campaign event, one fundraiser, and has handed off a portion of his voter mobilization apparatus to the Walker campaign. But he is involved. Interesting. So with the exception of Kemp, the Republican Party writ large, especially its biggest stars, they're starting to kind of steer clear of this Walker campaign, perhaps because they're seeing exactly what you have been describing, which is that the candidacy itself is pretty wobbly.

pretty wobbly. So that helps me understand part of the gap in motivation that we're seeing here. But help me understand why Democrats are showing so much motivation in this race, knowing, as we established earlier in the conversation, that they don't really need this seat to control the Senate. Well, I think in the minds of a lot of Democratic voters, to control the Senate? Well, I think in the minds of a lot of Democratic voters, Hershel Walker represents a lot of what Donald Trump represented and Trumpism in Republican politics represented, that he was the celebrity candidate with virtually no political experience who is vying for an extremely powerful office. He also represents the sort of anti-democratic and extremist ideals that Trump has really given rise to. And so for Democratic voters, this is a real reason to turn back out, not just to defeat Herschel Walker, but to also defeat Trumpism

and these forces that he represents. Right. For Democrats, the idea here may be to elect Warnock, defeat Walker, and kind of finish the midterm job of beating back Trumpism itself. Exactly. Maya, given everything you have told us, it sure seems like this is a runoff in which Warnock stands a pretty good chance of prevailing. But let's stipulate, as we must do, that politics is full of surprises and that Herschel Walker could win. So what would need to happen for that to occur, given all the motivational and logistical hurdles he faces?

Herschel Walker will need to absolutely explode turnout numbers on election day from not just the party faithful at the conservative base, but those prized moderate conservatives that we've talked about who may have a change of heart. He's going to need them to have a change of heart and turnout en masse to vote for him. And look, Georgia is still, as we saw in the general election, very much a favorable environment for conservative Republican candidates. And so he still does have the numbers on his side in terms of the number of Republican voters who exist in the state. Right. If they can get behind him. If they can get behind him and head to the polls to vote today. Well, let's just say that things do end up going the way they look

like we expect them to go. And Warnock does win today's runoff. What do you think that the two parties will ultimately take from that outcome, given how both candidates have behaved during this runoff? I think a Warnock victory only underlines this growing sentiment among Republicans that Trumpism and Trump-backed candidates were too deeply flawed and ineffective in this midterm cycle, and that they need to move on from the former president as the kingmaker in the party. But for Democrats, the takeaway is a little bit

more complicated because we know that Democrats can win in Georgia. We saw Joe Biden win the state in 2020. Of course, Senator Warnock and Senator John Ossoff won as well, two Democrats from the state. But what made their wins in large part was this sort of boogeyman figure on the other side, this Trumpism in Republicans that turned off a lot of voters

and ended up resulting in Democratic success. And I think this is very similar in what we see with Herschel Walker against Raphael Warnock. Walker is an ally and close friend and ideologically very similar to former President Donald Trump. That would help Senator Warnock immensely if he is successful tonight, and I think we would be able to point to that. Right. But the question is, what happens in 2024, for example, if Donald Trump is not the nominee for president

on the Republican side, or 2026 or beyond, if he really is a figure who recedes from view in Republican politics? It's an open question of how Democrats in Georgia will still be able to campaign and win without a figure like him on the other side. Right. And without Trump, the question becomes, is Georgia as purple, you know, as potentially winnable for Democrats as we think it is? Or does it go back to being what it was before Trump ever arrived in American politics, which is reliably red?

And I think the answer to that question, it certainly has huge implications for Georgia Democrats and the work that they've done, but also for other swing states in this era of Trump and Trump acolytes, of how they'll be able to campaign and craft messaging to voters that still allows them to hold real power and influence without a Trump-like figure to run against. Well, Maya, thank you very much. We appreciate it. Thank you. Polls in Georgia closed tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern, and the race is expected to be called a few hours later.

We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Monday, Russia accused Ukraine of using drones to attack two military bases inside Russia, including an airfield used as a staging ground for the type of long-range bombers whose missiles have destroyed much of Ukraine's energy grid over the past few months. The attacks appeared to be Ukraine's deepest incursion into Russia and demonstrated its ability to fly drones undetected far into Russian airspace. fly drones undetected far into Russian airspace. The bases that Ukraine struck on Monday are between 300 and 450 miles from the Ukrainian border. And the Times reports that during

oral arguments on Monday, the Supreme Court's conservative majority seemed prepared to rule that a graphic designer in Colorado has a First Amendment right to refuse to create websites celebrating same-sex weddings based on her Christian faith. Such a ruling would undermine a state law there that forbids discrimination based on sexual orientation, and would represent another example of conservative justices allowing businesses to turn down requests from same-sex customers in the name of religious liberty. Today's episode was produced by Rachel Quester, Jessica Chung, and Caitlin O'Keefe, with help from Mary Wilson and Diana Nguyen.

It was edited by John Ketchum, with help from Michael Benoit, contains original music by Dan Powell, Marian Lozano, and Brad Fisher, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro.

See you tomorrow.