The Daily - The Latino Voters Who Could Decide the Midterms

Episode Date: October 3, 2022

Latino voters have never seemed more electorally important than in the coming midterm elections: the first real referendum on the Biden era of government.Latinos make up 20 percent of registered voters in two crucial Senate races — Arizona and Nevada — and as much or more in over a dozen competitive House races.In the past 10 years, the conventional wisdom about Latino voters has been uprooted. We explore a poll, conducted by The Times, to better understand how they view the parties vying for their vote.Guest: Jennifer Medina, a national politics reporter for The New York Times.Background reading: Two years after former President Donald Trump made surprising gains with Hispanic voters, Republican dreams of a major realignment have failed to materialize, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Latino voters have never seemed more electorally important or more up for grabs than in the midterm elections next month that will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress. whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress. Today, my colleague Jennifer Medina, on what a Times poll and a series of follow-up interviews for The Daily, has revealed about how those voters see both parties.

It's Monday, October 3rd. Jenny, you and our colleagues just conducted a major poll of Latino voters in the United States. And the reason why, no doubt, is that it's an enormously consequential voting bloc in an enormously consequential election. The first real referendum on the Biden era of government, the first time voters across the country are going to go to the polls since Donald Trump lost the White House. So I want to start by asking you to quantify, if you can, the role that Latino voters are expected to play in these consequential midterms. So Latino voters will play a huge role in deciding both the House and the Senate and control over Congress. In two of the most consequential Senate races, Nevada and Arizona,

Latinos make up 20% of registered voters there. And in the House races, this is pretty unusual, Latinos make up more than 20% of more than a dozen competitive House races. Now, it's not unusual, of course, for Latinos to make up a big pool of voters in House races, but in competitive races, that's a relatively new phenomenon. So is this just a geographical coincidence this election year, or is there something about the fact that these districts have so many Latino voters that makes them so competitive? It's really a little bit of both. The basic dynamic is that most of these districts were not competitive before.

They were either blue districts or red rural districts. And now they've been redrawn to include more Latinos. And so the addition of those Latino voters has made these districts much more purple and more competitive. And again, that's happened in some really key races. Fascinating. So it's not at all a stretch, given that math you just described, to say that Latino voters could very well determine which party controls both chambers of Congress in November. Definitely not at all a stretch. And really one of the first times it's been so clear that that is possible. And Jenny, you've talked a lot in the past about the history of Latino vote in the United States and bad assumptions that both parties have made about this group of voters.

And just remind us of that. As you all began to undertake this poll, what's the understanding that existed of the Latino vote? Well, that's really the other reason why we decided to do this poll, because our understanding had gone so topsy-turvy over the last 10 years. When you look back at 2012, Barack Obama had a huge record-breaking number of Latino support. record-breaking number of Latino support. And so speculation after 2012 was this is the new Democratic majority. Democrats are going to have a permanent majority largely because of Latino voters. When Republicans lost in November, it was a wake-up call. The Republicans are so freaked out

that they do this huge study and basically come away with this message. The way we communicate our principles isn't resonating widely enough. We'll never ever win unless we do better with Latino voters. Focus groups described our party as narrow-minded, out of touch, and quote, stuffy old men. We've got to change our message on immigration. We've got to change our message on diversity. Right. Then four years later. I would build a great wall. And nobody builds walls better than me, believe me.

Comes Donald Trump with his anti-immigrant message. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. Right, breaking all of the rules that Republicans said they were going to start to follow after 2012. Right. And Democrats think, we don't really need to go after Latino voters. Donald Trump is repelling them for us.

Right. But, of course, in 2020... It's going to be one of the big surprises I think you see that come out of 2020. And the Democrats are going to be really confused by it. President Trump receiving 35% of the Hispanic vote this year, up seven points from 2016. We see Latino voters moving toward Donald Trump in a way that really shocks most of the political world.

Democrats are now being warned that shift is only growing. And then there had become this sort of conventional wisdom that that had started this sort of mass exodus among Latino voters from the Democratic Party toward the Republican Party. And that there was just a continual march toward conservatism within Latino voters. One of the big questions in 2022 is, is that going to continue? Could that accelerate? Will that scramble midterm politics? going to continue? Could that accelerate? Will that scramble midterm politics?

So just to summarize that, as you undertake this poll, our understanding of Latino voters is that we don't really understand them. And the questions that everyone seems to be asking are, are Latino voters naturally Democrats? Or were they once naturally Democrats, but now they are moving from the Democratic Party over to the Republican Party, this is a very confusing moment. Right. It's a very confusing moment, and there's sort of a collective, what is going on here? And when in doubt, do a poll. Exactly. So given all of that, what does this poll find?

So that big question that we wanted to know, are Latino voters fleeing the Democratic Party and flocking toward Republicans? The answer to that is no. Most Hispanic voters, more than 50 percent, say they will vote for Democrats this fall. Interesting. And roughly 30 percent say they will vote for Republicans, which is about in line with what's happened historically. And why do you think that is? Well, what the poll showed is really this belief that Democrats are the party of the working class is part of what's keeping Latino voters committed to that party. And the support is driven largely by women and partly by older voters.

And overall, you see Hispanic voters agreeing with Democrats on a whole bunch of issues, immigration, gun policy, climate. There are lots of reasons that they still feel committed to the Democratic Party. But all of that said, there's some huge warning signs, flashing red lights for Democrats and openings for Republicans both now and years from now. Okay, well, let's focus on that, the vulnerability of Democrats that has been revealed by this poll and the opportunity that it tells us exists for Republicans, because that dynamic seems to be very consequential in these House and Senate races that you mentioned earlier, Jenny, because it could tip the scales, right? If

Republicans lure even more Latino voters than they did in 2020, they may have a very good midterm. If Democrats can keep those voters or even win back Latino voters from Republicans, they will have a very good midterm. So how should we think about that dynamic given the results of the poll? So there are three broad areas where Democrats are really vulnerable and Republicans really have an opening. And the first of those is the economy. So the poll showed us very clearly that Latino voters overwhelmingly consider the economy the most important issue and the most important issue deciding their vote. And when you ask which party they favor on economic issues, they're actually very split. And almost as many voters prefer the Republican Party on economic issues as they do the Democratic Party.

Democratic Party. That's really interesting because there's kind of an over-representation of Latinos who trust Republicans on the economy relative to the number of Latino voters who just favor Republicans in general. Right. In other words, there are people who say that they favor Democrats in general, but still say they favor the Republicans on economic policy and say that the economic policy is the most important thing determining their vote. So it's a huge opening for Republicans. Hello. Hi, is this Dani? Yes. And so to understand this better, we called up some of the people who responded to the poll. Do you have a few minutes to talk now? We just wanted to follow up. So take, for example, Dani Bernal. Okay. So my name, Danny Bernal. Okay, so my

name is Danny Bernal. I'm 35, born in Bolivia, raised in Miami, and now I'm living in Los Angeles. And Danny, tell me how you think of yourself politically. How do you describe yourself as a voter? I want to say that even though I'm registered as a Republican, I'm more independent because I constantly swing back and forth on issues. When did you register as a Republican? Oh, that was when I was really young, as soon as I was able to pre-register when I got my license. So I literally just asked my mom, like, what's the difference? So her mother immigrated from Bolivia and she moved to Miami, a place that's sort of overwhelmingly populated by people who fled socialist, communist regimes and really kind of see government involvement as a negative thing and want to have an economy based on pure capitalism and the free market. Mm-hmm. And this is a group of voters that Republicans have traditionally seen as theirs.

Voters who care about the free market. Republicans have tailored a message to them saying, we are your home base in the U.S. Right. And they really have been their home base in the U.S. And so, Dani is really shaped by her mom. She explained it to me. She's like, okay, let's say that you work together with your brother on a project.

But, you know, your brother really doesn't do that much work. Would you want your brother to get the same pay that you do? And I was like, no. And so she's like, OK, then that's basically what the Republicans believe. We don't believe that, you know, we should completely just share our wealth with just everybody. And basically, like she told me that the Democratic Party is just like you work and then you have to share with everybody. That was kind of like the very basics of it. Like it sounded like communism. But then it turns out she doesn't really vote

for Republicans. Interesting. She voted for Obama. She out she doesn't really vote for Republicans. Interesting. She voted for Obama. She voted for Clinton. She voted for Biden. I mean, Trump, he's a terrible human being. And she's really in line with Democrats on social issues like abortion, like guns. Yes, 100%. I feel strongly with the Democrat Party on every single social issue.

But when it comes to the economy, she really sees eye to eye with Republicans. I think I understood that you believe that the economy is the most important issue for you right now. Do I have that right? Yeah. It's mainly because, you know, it's not easy. If the cost of living was a lot lower or at least taxes were lower, then I'd be able to, like, do more. But unfortunately, that's just not the case. I think a lot of it has to do with her own personal experience and her own economic situation change. Because of the pandemic and everything, I'm supporting my boyfriend right now, you know, and I'm the breadwinner of the family and he's playing the supportive role. I mean, he was making more money than I was years ago and he was more of the breadwinner.

He was making 250K a year and now he's making like nothing, absolutely nothing, because he's still looking for work. What kind of work was he in? He's in entertainment, so he's a pro wrestler. Her boyfriend worked as a pro wrestler, but now has lost his job. And so now she's the sole income earner in their household. And just to be really clear, she's making what seems like a lot of money. Because I make a little bit under 200K. She makes nearly $200,000.

But she really feels like that's not enough. I'm living in Los Angeles. My rent is $2,500. I live in a 700 square foot apartment. I still have to pay for parking. You know, I'm growing my own digital marketing agency, and I still have to get a side gig. So it sounds like you're saying you make good money, but it's just not enough in this economy, in this city. Well, not when you have to factor in, you know, savings.

There's really little, like, that I can actually do. I'm still not, like, like you know I'm still not enjoying a good like prosperous life if you want to call it you know do you feel like you're enjoying a more prosperous life than your mother carved out in Miami I don't know that's that's a very hard question to answer because my mom was able to you know buy a house at like maybe like 80k or something back in Miami she has like three properties now you know I don't have that prosperous life at 35 like she was already a homeowner She was also in a double income household, but I still can't put down for a house. And so she looks around at her life and thinks, I can't raise a child in the same kind of comfort that I was raised in. I can't have a house, all these things that my mother was able

to provide for me. So when you think about your and your boyfriend's economic circumstances, do you think it's about the choices you've made or is it kind of luck, but not really about the government? I don't think it has to do anything with the government because I'm a firm believer that anybody that lives in a capitalistic society can make money, no matter what it is. And so in this moment, does she see Republicans as the solution to that problem in her life? Well, so she's not quite ready to vote for Republicans, but she really believes in the sort of up from your bootstraps mentality, this notion that anybody can get ahead. And so she's really the epitome of the kind of voter Republicans can go after and pick up.

I mean, it would be, for her, much more like a homecoming, going back to the way her mother was raised and the sort of hope and aspiration and success that her mother had. However, based on what you told us about her earlier, it would be a decision to move away from the party that she agrees with on social issues because economic concerns for her trump those. Right.

Because economic concerns are more important to her and could convince her that it is worth her vote to vote with this party she disagrees with on other things. Got it. So this very much helps me understand what you mean when you say Republicans have a big opportunity with Latino voters who have traditionally voted Democratic. This voter encapsulates that perfectly. Yes. And so it could prove problematic for Democrats in the fall,

and it could have really long-lasting implications for the party and for politics in general. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Jenny, you said that there were three ways in which the Democrats are vulnerable with Latino voters. So what is the second issue that represents Democratic vulnerability and therefore Republican opportunity? So the other big bucket is social issues. And now we're talking about voters who are pretty solidly Democrat on these issues, but now are starting to feel uncomfortable and think the party is taking it a little bit too far, specifically on issues of gender and race. And we really wanted to understand how widespread that belief was. So we asked these voters about all sorts of issues. We asked what they thought of Black Lives Matter.

We asked what they thought of Blue Lives Matter. We asked how they felt about policing and issues of educating students on trans issues. And then we also asked the question directly, do you think Democrats are too woke? And that's a line of attack that Republicans have really hammered in the last couple of years. Right. And just to explain that line of attack, it's essentially that Democrats, progressives, liberals are asking the entire country to go to a place on certain social issues that the country is not ready for. Exactly. And so when you look at the results here, nearly 60% of these voters say they support Black Lives Matter, for example.

And at the same time, more than a third of these voters say they agree with Republicans more on crime and policing. And 40% say that they think the party is too woke when it comes to issues of race and gender. That's a large number. It's a large number, and it is a big opening for Republicans. Because on the one hand, these voters are saying they agree with them on these sort of basic tenets, these basic principles about social justice, about gender, about race,

but they think Democrats have gone a little bit too far. Hi, is this Luis? Yes, it is. And so one voter we spoke with to understand these contradictions is Luis Zuniga. Do you have a couple minutes to chat? Sure. He is 29 years old. He lives in Beaumont, Texas and grew up in El Paso and now works as an electrical engineer in the oil and gas industry. Have you generally voted for Democrats? Yes, I would say the majority would be on the Democratic side. And tell me a little bit about why you think that is. I just think I follow some of the social policies with the Democratic a little more. There are a lot of policies in the Republican side that I do agree with.

Typically, the Republican side has been a lot stronger on economics just because they do treat it like a business. They do treat it like a competition. And that's a good strategy for America. Donald Trump did bring a lot of good economic strategies to the country, but my basis for voting has primarily been on the social side. Okay. Tell me a tiny bit what you mean when you say social side. Sure. Practically, you know, the Republican side has been a little more closed-minded in terms of equality of different social groups.

So I'm personally, you know, part of a couple of minority groups. So I'm a minority in Hispanic heritage and a minority in the LGBT community. So in total, I guess I would side a little more on the Democratic side just because they support a lot of minority issues and minority groups. I do have to agree that some minority groups take it a little too far. And tell me a little bit more about what you mean by too far. You know, it could be, you know, showing up too much pride or showing of, you know, there's a difference between accepting minority groups and the minority groups forcing their beliefs on the rest of

population. So I do think there's a difference there. You know, shoving down views and shoving down requirements down everyone else's throats. That's really what I've been seeing lately. He kept using the term shoving down our throats. He's wary. He's really skeptical of Democrats kind of pushing the envelope too fast, too much, too dramatically. or things like that. Because I do respect, you know, individuals' opinions or thoughts and, you know, how they want to address themselves. But once, you know, once you force ideas down other people, I think that's the issue that I've been seeing. So one specific discomfort he points to is educating elementary school kids on issues of gender and sexuality. You know, small infants at the elementary school level may not be the appropriate age just because they will be absorbing everything that they see or hear. So I do think that it's around the middle school time frame that, you know, it's a little more appropriate for them to understand these things and for them to really assess what's going on.

And Luis couldn't quite pinpoint exactly what is being taught to young kids that bothers him. But he has this sort of general feeling that something is wrong here when it comes to young kids and how they are taught about gender and sexuality. Got it. And he associates that with the Democratic Party. And does that discomfort actually translate into Luis considering voting for Republicans? Well, we asked him that. Could you see yourself voting for a Republican in November? I could potentially, you know, if they have good policies in place that could address

some of the economic issues that are happening while maintaining, you know, that social balance. Yeah, I think that's an opportunity. That's an opportunity. And what's interesting about Luis is he's really part of this other demographic that is shifting towards Republicans. And I'm speaking specifically about young Latino men. And that really seems to be where there's the biggest movement toward the Republican Party. seems to be where there's the biggest movement toward the Republican Party. When you ask the question of who you're going to vote for in the midterms, Democrats have just a four-point edge over Republicans with men under the age of 45.

So for Democrats, the worry would be that young men, who are of course going to be voting for a very long time, by definition they're young, they may be leaving the Democratic Party and voting for Republicans over these social issues. And this is a reputation the Democratic Party has that may be hard to shake. Right. So this is a big part of it, a big danger for Democrats. And it's not going to be the only reason. I think it's pretty unlikely that somebody's going to vote on one issue alone. But you start to understand how if somebody already feels discomfort with the party on these social issues and trusts Republicans more on the economy, that they might be inclined to vote for Republicans in a way they never have before. So Jenny, what's the third area that came up in this poll?

So really the third area is kind of a combination of one and two, which is these are people who are really ready to vote for Republicans, but are holding themselves back because they're concerned about racism and extremism. racism, and extremism. And specifically, I'm talking about the fact that Republican candidates are attracting voters and supporters from extreme groups, like the Proud Boys, like the Oath Keepers. They're worried sort of like who their bedfellows might be. Interesting. Hello. Hi, Abel. This is Jenny Medina from The New York Times. Is now still an okay time for you? Yes, I am good. Hi, Abel. This is Jenny Medina from The New York Times. Is now still an okay time for you? Yes, ma'am. I'm good.

So one voter I spoke with is Abel Cortez. I was born in the suburbs of Houston, Texas. Born and raised out here. He's 50 years old, owns a business with his wife, has four kids, and also is in law school. He lives just outside of Houston. And tell me a little bit, how would you describe yourself politically as a voter? I'm not really affiliated with either party. If I had to categorize myself, I'd say I'm one of the swing voters. He said the last Republican candidate he can remember voting for for president was Bush. You know, I kind of felt like there was, when Trump was in office, there was maybe a push to try and bring

jobs back into the country. But for about the last 10 years, he's usually voted for Democrats in presidential elections. I don't know if I would say I favor the Democrats. They just, especially lately,

they seem to be more stable. And just to kind of make sure I understand where you're coming from at the moment, it's pretty clear you've been mostly voting for Democrats most recently. But for you, it feels clear like you could still see yourself voting for a Republican now? Oh, yeah, 100%. And says that if he saw the right candidate, he would certainly vote for a Republican again. But what really stops him, he says, is what he describes as a racial climate.

You know, the racial climate, it's a big deal. It's a big deal to me. And what does he mean by that? When you see like the Proud Boys and all the Confederate flags and they're at the Trump rallies, and nobody says anything, well, how do I know how those guys feel about me? So what he really means by that is what he sees as this rise of racism within the Republican Party. And it basically makes him wonder if there's any space for him in the Republican Party. And it basically makes him wonder if there's any space for him in the Republican Party. I was on my way home today, and there was this, I guess it was,

I don't know what it was. It was some sort of, I don't know if it was a protest or some sort of a rally of some sort. And he spoke about seeing some sort of political rally not far from where he lives. But you had white supremacists on one side of the street. Then you had a bunch of Trump supporters on the other side of the street. But so there was one guy in the Trump crowd.

He was like, hey, you guys, y'all need to go away, making us look bad. And that's exactly how I feel like that guy does about the Republican Party. The Republican Party today is not the Republican Party I grew up with. And he sort of felt like, yeah, that's my problem, too. Like, how can you be here at the same place, Ryan? We can't be in the same space together. I don't know if it's the media or or maybe in my area, but they just seem more radicalized. area, but they just seem more radicalized. There's a big part of the Republican voters that just seem radicalized, just kind of out there. Too extreme for me.

It's so interesting. What makes him worried about the Republican Party in this moment is not necessarily its values, it's literally Republican voters themselves. Right. I think it's Republican voters and Republican candidates who are attracting those voters. It's this very clear notion that to be Republican in this moment is to be racist and extremist. That's how he sees the party now. That's not how he saw it in the Bush era, but that's how he sees it now. You know, the party that I'm looking, you know, that I'm considering to vote for, sees it now? You know, the party that I'm looking, you know, that I'm considering to vote for, maybe they don't like me. You know what I mean? Maybe they don't want me to succeed. Maybe they don't want me to, you know, to do well. Yeah, so it's a, you know, it's a big deal.

But Jenny, like you said, Abel has voted for Republicans in the past and might be open to doing it again. He's more or less ready to vote Republican, but for this one concern about extremism and racism in the party, which is a big concern. But that seems like an opportunity for Republicans, right, if they can put forward the right kind of candidate. Right. And Republicans have shown an ability to do this. Right. And Republicans have shown an ability to do this. Something we've talked about on the show before is a candidate like Mayra Flores, who won a special election in South Texas earlier this year in a seat of racism, that there are people, quote-unquote, like you in the party, those voters could be convinced. But presumably there's also a big opening for Democrats here, too.

They can point out the extremism of the Republican Party candidates that exist, especially in this cycle, in order to hold on to a voter like Abel. Right. You would think so. But for some voters, including Abel, that might not be enough. In Texas, for example, there's a race for the governor's office right now with incumbent Republican Greg Abbott against Beto O'Rourke. And O'Rourke has really been painting Abbott as extreme, as anti-Latino and anti-immigrant. And Abbott, at the same time, has been busing migrants to Washington, D.C. and New York without any warning.

So that's made the attack easier for O'Rourke to make. Do you think you'll vote for Beto? Do you think I'll vote for Beto? I don't know. I'm almost looking for a reason to not I would like to not vote for Abbott but I don't know if I don't know if Beto's the guy or not Why would you not want to vote for Abbott? I just think it's time for a change

Even though Abel is uncomfortable with Greg Abbott and plans to vote against him he's not all that enthusiastic about Beto O'Rourke So the strategy from Democrats to paint Republicans Abbott and plans to vote against him, he's not all that enthusiastic about Beto O'Rourke. So the strategy from Democrats to paint Republicans as extremists really only goes so far. So, Jenny, at the beginning of this conversation, we talked about just how much the Latino voter has been misunderstood. And this poll was meant to bring a new understanding of this voting block. So knowing what we now know about the result of this poll and the conversations that you had with all the voters that we just talked through, what is our new understanding of the Latino voter at this moment and their

relationship to the two major parties and these midterms? I think you can really come away from this poll understanding that while the majority of Latinos still vote for Democrats, a large group of Latino voters are definitely still up for grabs. There's not this deeply ingrained, deeply loyal, across-the-board affinity for either party. You know, Latino voters have long felt like neither party really speaks to them, that Democrats have taken them for granted, and that Republicans have candidates who seem to have outright hostility toward them, and that nobody really quite values them as voters. It's almost more like they have nowhere to go. And so everybody always talks every election about the swing voters. Well, this year, it really feels like Latinos are those swing voters.

They are the ones who will swing these very, very competitive races in the House and the Senate. And what will be really interesting and important in these last few weeks is to see whether candidates and parties do really tailor their messages to these voters. whether candidates and parties do really tailor their messages to these voters. And whichever party successfully does that will be rewarded this year and presumably for a long time to come. Well, Jenny, thank you very much. We appreciate your time. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.

The death toll from Hurricane Ian surged over the weekend to about 80 people. The largest concentration died in Lee County, home to the hard-hit town of Fort Myers Beach, where officials said that 42 people were killed. The Times reports that officials in Lee County had delayed issuing an evacuation order as the hurricane approached. That gave residents there less time to leave than in several nearby communities and may have contributed to the large number of deaths. may have contributed to the large number of deaths. And, hours after Vladimir Putin claimed to have annexed the Donetsk region of Ukraine, his troops were forced to withdraw from a major city there on Saturday in a humiliating setback.

The retreat from the strategically important city of Liman showed the willingness of the Ukrainian army to attack territory that Putin now claims as Russian land and the dubiousness of Putin's claim that he really controls the land that he has annexed. Today's episode was produced by Diana Nguyen and Asta Chotherbedi with help from Nina Feldman. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Paige Cowett, contains original music by Marion Lozano and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsvark of Wonderland. That's it for The Daily.

I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.