The Daily - The Rise of Delta

Episode Date: July 6, 2021

The Delta variant of the coronavirus is threatening to put the world in an entirely new stage of the pandemic.The variant is spreading fast, particularly in places with low vaccination rates — it is thought to be around 50 percent more transmissible than previous versions.What can be done to stop Delta, and how will the variant hamper global efforts to return to normalcy?Guest: Carl Zimmer, a science writer and author of the “Matter” column for The New York Times.Sign up here to get The Daily in your inbox each morning. And for an exclusive look at how the biggest stories on our show come together, subscribe to our newsletter. Background reading: Vaccines are driving down coronavirus case numbers in the U.S., but it’s unclear whether Delta will reverse that trend. Here’s what scientists know about it.Conflicting advice from the health authorities about masks has bewildered a worried public.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. It's quickly becoming the most dominant and dangerous strain of the coronavirus, globally and in the U.S. Today, science reporter Carl Zimmer on everything you need to know about the Delta variant. It's Tuesday, July 6th. So Carl, I want to start this conversation with a bit of a disclosure, which is that we have been debating for some time on the Daily Team whether and when to make an episode about

the Delta variant, and if it would be alarmist to devote an entire episode to it. And it now feels like over the past week or so, there was a turning point, and this story of the Delta variant has become indisputably important and dangerous, and something we should devote an episode to. important, and dangerous, and something we should devote an episode to. Well, I couldn't agree more. Welcome to the Delta Club, is all I'm going to say. I mean, for those of us who have a thing for variants, we've had our eye on Delta for a long time, and it's doing exactly what people warned it would do. So here we are.

Well, it's not a club I ever wanted to join, but I appreciate your invitation. What exactly is it doing? I mean, at the highest possible level, tell us what this variant really is. This variant is sweeping across the world, and it is threatening to put us into an entirely new stage of the pandemic. But to appreciate just how worried scientists are about Delta, you actually have to step back and take a look at the variant that we were worried about before, which was Alpha. So in December, scientists in the UK discovered that there was this variant called Alpha, which seems to have originated somewhere there in England, and it was spreading very quickly. And scientists eventually determined that it was roughly 50% more transmissible than earlier variants. Right. This is what we came to know as the British variant, and it was very contagious.

That's right. So maybe if you walked into a store and you had a 10% chance of getting sick from earlier variants, now you had a 15% chance of getting sick with Alpha. And so that meant that Alpha was just able to spread out really fast. And it soon was spreading to other countries. The United States, for example, it became dominant by March. So in India, there was another variant, which we call Delta. And there, it really started to rise in India in March. It wasn't clear just what we were dealing with until it started to spread to other countries, such as the United Kingdom, where they studied it very carefully and estimate that Delta is 50% more transmissible than Alpha, roughly speaking. So what that means is you've got something that is now roughly twice as transmissible as the original coronavirus. So this is the latest, and in many ways, the most transmissible variant we've encountered in this pandemic. As far as we know, this is the fastest spreading one that

the world is dealing with right now. And it is taking off like crazy. It's in 96 countries. And Carl, what does the Delta variant look like in those countries? How is it spreading? In some of those countries, it appears to be driving big surges. So you're having huge rises in cases of COVID-19 as Delta is spreading from person to person. Vaccines can stop Delta, but a lot of countries in the world have very few people vaccinated yet. So you have this combination of very contagious virus showing up in countries with very little vaccination, and it's really a recipe for disaster. And that disaster is now unfolding in country after country. And what country specifically are we talking about here?

I mean, we're talking about Bangladesh, Australia, Malaysia, Russia. There are a lot of countries that already seem to be having these sort of delta-driven surges, and probably there are a lot more that are going to be coming online in the weeks to come. And so all those countries you just mentioned, one thing they have in common is relatively low rates of vaccination. Yes, that's right. So for example, in Russia, only 15% of Russians have gotten even one dose. Australia, only 6% of Australians are fully vaccinated. And why are people vaccinated in places like Australia at higher rates? It's interesting that, you know, a country like Australia is relatively wealthy, but does not have a great vaccine supply. And I think in those cases, like Australia, one of the reasons is that

they thought they had this covered. They thought that their very strict, rigorous public health measures, contact tracing, testing, very, very strict limits on travel. It was working. They had incredibly low rates. Life was normal in Australia. And so they thought, well, we can take our time with vaccination because we've got this big wall keeping the virus out. But then the virus came over the wall and they didn't have their vaccines ready. You started to hint at this, but how are these countries responding to preparing for Delta, given that they have these relatively low rates of vaccination and their people are very vulnerable? So in some countries, there's just a slowing down of reopenings. So for example, in Ireland,

they were planning to return to indoor dining and drinking, but they've delayed that. But in other countries, the measures are much more severe. In Malaysia, they have a nationwide stay-at-home order, which is going to be extended indefinitely. In Bangladesh, there are actually going to be soldiers who will be patrolling the streets to enforce their orders. There are just a whole range of countermeasures. It's just that a lot of countries had been starting to relax, starting to reopen, and things seem to be going well. And now, you know, as we wait for more people to get vaccinated, really, there's just the thing to do that we've been doing before, which is making it

harder for the virus to get from person to person. Right. And seemingly kind of rolling back the clock in the process to a much earlier period in the pandemic. Yeah, it's a lot of deja vu. So given everything you just described, how are global health officials thinking about what to do with Delta? What is their plan? Well, the most important thing is to get the world vaccinated. But Delta is spreading so fast that there are going to have to be other things to do.

So, for example, the World Health Organization is urging people to continue to wear masks, even if they've been fully vaccinated. Even if you're vaccinated? WHO is saying, wear a mask. Even if you're vaccinated, WHO is saying, wear a mask. Even if you're vaccinated, yeah. And that is certainly not going to be welcome news in the United States at any rate. We'll be right back.

We'll be right back. So, Carl, I want to spend some time talking about the United States, because Delta is emerging as the country begins to pretty much fully reopen. You live in Connecticut. I live in New York. In both places, more or less all the pandemic restrictions have been lifted, especially mask restrictions. And all signs point to the U.S. acting as though the worst of the pandemic is over and we can return to normal. So how does Delta fit into that? Delta fits in like throwing a wrench in the works, basically. I'm certainly enjoying a relatively normal summer going to restaurants and eating without a mask. And I think a lot of people are really relishing this return to normalcy. But the fact is that

Delta is here and Delta is already getting public health officials really worried. It started taking off here in this country in May. It's at least now 26% of all cases in the U.S. And Delta will be dominant here in the United States in July. And when you say dominant, you mean if you get infected with the coronavirus, it's probably going to be Delta? It's probably going to be Delta. Yeah. Alpha is fading away because Delta has arrived and is just a lot fitter as a virus and is just plowing through the population. We're already starting to see the effect of Delta on the national caseload.

Our cases have been dropping and dropping and dropping since January. It was amazing. We've gotten down below 12,000 cases a day on average, which is fantastic, but it's flattened out. And actually, if you break it down, a lot of it seems to be people getting infected with Delta. You're seeing new flare-ups in places like Missouri, where over half of the cases that doctors are seeing are Delta variants. And are we talking, Carl, about people getting infected with Delta

who are not vaccinated? Largely, yes. So this is turning into a pandemic for the unvaccinated. We're very proud about how things have gone with vaccination in the United States, but things have actually been flattening out with vaccination rates. So we only actually have 46% of the American population fully vaccinated at this point. So actually less than half of people are fully vaccinated. So that's a lot of people vulnerable to Delta. Yeah. Even if you've gotten one dose of a two-dose vaccine, you shouldn't feel protected. Because when you're talking about Delta, even one dose isn't that much protection. You want the two doses. If you get two doses of, say, Pfizer or Moderna, you're in good shape. But the majority of people in the United

States are not there yet. I do want to zero in on that phrase you just used, in good shape if you get one of the main vaccines in its full dose. Do all of the main vaccines used in the U.S. protect fairly well against Delta? J&J, Moderna, Pfizer? Well, the companies have all said that it looks like their vaccines are going to be working against Delta. Just how effectively they work against it compared to other variances is really only starting to emerge. But last week, Johnson & Johnson said that their vaccine works well against the virus. And there's good data on Pfizer coming from Britain, where it looks like their vaccine is 88% effective against Delta, which, you know, that's lower than around 95% that we initially saw, but 88% is really good. So if you're fully vaccinated with Pfizer, it looks like you have this 88% effective coverage. But if you just get

one dose of Pfizer, you only have about 33% effective coverage. So you really want to get both doses of a vaccine. And it's worth pointing out here that in the United Kingdom, where this data is coming from, they're seeing a surge in cases, but they're not seeing a big surge in hospitalizations. And that seems to be in part because so many people have been vaccinated. So if that's the case, why is the WHO saying that vaccinated people, fully vaccinated people even, should wear masks? Well, when they've spoken about it, they talked about the potential risks that maybe you might get sick from Delta anyway, depending on which vaccine you've gotten.

And also, there's a concern that even if you don't get really sick yourself, you might get infected and pass it on to someone who is unvaccinated. Well, how great a risk is that, though? Because in conversations with you and our colleagues at The Times, we have come to understand the risk of transmitting the virus when you're vaccinated as very, very small. But we're dealing with a new variant, which is really serious. And there isn't a whole lot of data on Delta in particular. So, you know, public health officials have to deal with this kind of quandary all the time. You've got a fast moving crisis.

You have incomplete data. You got to make a decision. So the WHO has made this decision of recommending that people wear masks indoors, even if they're vaccinated. But that is not what the Center for Disease Control in the United States is saying. Right. It is saying instead, you don't have to wear masks. So now the CDC and the WHO are very much at odds. Well, they're making different recommendations looking at the same data. And you have to bear in mind that the WHO is giving advice for the whole world, which is a lot less vaccinated overall than the United States. And even in the United States, the CDC is still saying that you have to wear a

mask, even if you're vaccinated, in healthcare settings, on public transportation. And they also recommend that if you're in a very crowded, unventilated place that you wear a mask. But they've been emphasizing, well, these vaccines protect you against Delta. And it is the case that if you're vaccinated fully, you have good protection against Delta. That's clear. But with this huge number of people who are still unvaccinated or under vaccinated, public health officials have a tough choice to make. What do they recommend that people do? Well, I'm not sure if this is a fair question, Carl, but I'm going to ask it anyway.

Which one of these big public health agencies seems right, or maybe righter? Wear masks in this moment to fend off Delta and its potential risks, or no, if you're fully vaccinated, you don't need to? What team am I on? Look, I'm a journalist. I'm not an epidemiologist. So I myself will just keep an eye on rates. In Connecticut, we have very low rates right now, which is great. But if those start to shoot up, if it seems to be Delta is driving it, I might rethink that personally, both to protect myself and to protect others. But I'll have to play it by ear. So Carl, if I'm reading between the lines correctly, you are going to allow yourself to

perhaps keep walking into a store or restaurant without a mask following the current guidance in the US. But if things change and Delta starts to take off in the community where you live in Connecticut, you might change your behavior. You might become more vigilant. You might be putting that mask back on. Well, what I do is based on the most important thing, which is that I am fully vaccinated. And so, you know, when anybody is thinking about what should I be doing in terms of Delta, that's the first thing they should think about. Like, am I vaccinated? If not, when am I going to get vaccinated? It should be as soon as possible. Now, putting on a mask when you go indoors someplace, that's not a big deal. I mean, that's a pretty straightforward thing to do. We're not talking about closing down schools and so on. they need to just tell everybody just to put on a mask because it's too hard to make an honor system work. That's fine with me. That's totally fine with me. If that means that fewer people are ending up in the hospital and dying, I'm happy to do my part. And do you expect, whether it's

Connecticut or New York or the CDC itself, that that kind of guidance might be forthcoming sometime soon based on the transmissibility of Delta. You know, I mean, making predictions about this pandemic has been kind of a losing game in a lot of ways. If you've been vaccinated, then Delta is not a big risk. But for everybody else, this variant is really dangerous. And so there are going to have to be public health measures that take into account that we have this mixture where less than half of all Americans are fully vaccinated and really defended against this variant. And there are some parts of the country where less than a third are fully vaccinated, and those places are at even greater risk. So the reality of the coming months because of Delta

is that those who have gotten vaccinated, tens of millions of Americans, may need to make sacrifices in some regions of the country on behalf of those who have not gotten vaccinated. It's a possibility, yes. But that's what it means to be in a society that values public health. Public health means that we are looking out for each other. Thank you, Carl. We appreciate it. Thank you. In response to the rising risk of the Delta variant, the Biden administration said it would begin dispatching teams of federal officials to assist communities where vaccination rates are low and the variant is present.

The teams will focus on testing, treatment and vaccinations. Meanwhile. Well, let's talk about a specific here. We know Mississippi is one of the lowest vaccinated race in the country. You are in Biloxi, Mississippi right now, Dr. Fauci. You're fully vaccinated. But would you be wearing a mask in Biloxi, Mississippi? In an interview on Sunday with NBC News, Dr. Anthony Fauci weighed in on the growing debate over the Delta variant and masks, recommending that even vaccinated Americans wear a mask in communities with low vaccination rates. I think there would be a good reason to do that.

If you put yourself in an environment in which you have a high level of viral dynamics and a very low level of vaccine, you might want to go the extra step and say, when I'm in that area where there's a considerable degree of viral circulation, I might want to go the extra mile to be cautious enough to make sure that I get the extra added level of protection, even though the vaccines themselves are highly effective. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Sunday night, the remainder of the Florida condo that suffered a deadly collapse 12 days ago

was deliberately demolished after officials concluded that it might not withstand the powerful winds of an approaching tropical storm. At the end of the day, that building is too unsafe to let people go back in. I know there's a lot of people who were able to get out, fortunately, who have things there. We're very sensitive to that. During a news conference, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis expressed sympathy for survivors of the initial collapse, who were never given a chance to return to their homes and retrieve precious items before the demolition. But I don't think there's any way you could let somebody go up in that building, given the shape that it's in now. The death toll at the building has now risen to 24, with about 120 people still unaccounted for. Today's episode was produced by Astha Chaturvedi and Annie Brown.

It was edited by Dave Shaw, contains original music by Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.