The Daily - The Spoiler Threat of R.F.K. Jr.

Episode Date: October 12, 2023

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was once dismissed as a fringe figure in the 2024 presidential race. But this week, as he announces an independent run for the White House, he’s striking fear within both the Democratic and Republican parties.Rebecca Davis O’Brien, who covers campaign finance for The Times, explains why.Guest: Rebecca Davis O’Brien, a reporter covering campaign finance and money in U.S. elections for The New York Times.Background reading: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told supporters he would end his campaign as a Democratic candidate and run as an independent, potentially upsetting the dynamics of the 2024 election.From July, five noteworthy falsehoods Mr. Kennedy has promoted.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

This is Mary Wilson, producer for The Daily in downtown Philadelphia, waiting for a campaign event with presidential candidate RFK Jr. It's about three hours before he's expected to speak, and there are already maybe a few dozen supporters here. And I'm gonna start talking to him. Are you a supporter of RFK Jr.? Yeah, I'm actually, I'm a supporter big time. I have followed him for several years even before he decided to be a presidential campaign. I have always appreciated his honesty. I've listened to everything he's, every interview I can get my hands on. And I think RFK, he just wants the people to know the truth. And from the research that I've done, the little rabbit holes that I've gone down, it aligns with a lot of the stuff that Kennedy says to be the truth. I'll go to RFK. From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro.

This is The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Today, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was once dismissed as a fringe figure in the 2024 presidential race. But this week, as he announced an independent run for the White House, he's striking fear within both the Democratic and Republican parties. My colleague, political correspondent Rebecca O'Brien, explains why. It's Thursday, October 12th. Rebecca, a few days ago, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he was running for president as an independent,

which all but ensures that he can be a candidate in the general election next fall. He doesn't have to go through a difficult primary process. He can't really be knocked out of the race because he's not Democrat or Republican. And the question immediately became when he announced, how much does this really matter? Because third party and independent candidates have a very spotty record in the U.S. So the Democratic and Republican parties think that this move really does matter because it has the potential to draw votes from both sides. There's always a risk that independent candidates will draw support from the two parties. And in this case, we're facing an election

where in all likelihood, we're going to have a rematch of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Right. And they're both, you know, they have bases of support, but they're both unpopular in large segments of the population. Right, people are kind of tired of them. People are tired of them.

And Kennedy in particular speaks to, I think, a pretty sizable population of people who are sick of the two-party system and tired of the narratives on both sides. And so their fear is that in a three-way race, he would end up drawing support from both candidates. And from what I've seen in person at various Kennedy events, he draws people from across the political spectrum. And it's a pretty powerful coalition. And just in a sort of numerical sense, it doesn't take that much as we've seen in recent elections to swing the results. Right. And that wouldn't be the first time that this has happened. swing the results. Right. And that wouldn't be the first time that this has happened. There's,

despite third party and independent candidates' inability to ever win these races in the U.S., there's a long and rich history of them acting, and you're kind of getting at this, as spoilers, as people who draw just enough support away from one or both major party candidates to become decisive. I mean, it was widely believed Ralph Nader did that in 2000, winning just enough votes in key states to cost Al Gore the election. Some believe Ross Perot did that in 1992 and helped defeat George H.W. Bush in his re-election. So from what you're describing,

that's the fear that Democrats and Republicans have. Not that RFK Jr. becomes president, but that he costs one of them the presidency. That's exactly right. Okay. I want you to explain how we get to a point where RFK presents this kind of a threat and can draw this unique coalition that you alluded to just a few moments ago. So what is that story? So Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a scion of pretty much American royalty, right?

His uncle, former president John F. Kennedy, was assassinated when he was nine years old. Five years later, his father was assassinated. During his own run for the presidency. Right. And so he's 14 years old. He's the pallbearer at his own father's funeral. And in the years that followed, he had a troubled youth, troubled and privileged. And he was addicted to heroin at one point. But then by the mid 80s, he sort of establishes himself as an environmental lawyer. And he's a litigator, and he's persistent. It's against the law.

You're not allowed to pollute the air or the water in this country. What people who have known him admire about him is that he is determined and tireless. I sued them. It took 11 years for us to finally win that lawsuit. At some point during this phase, he is diagnosed with spasmodic dysphonia, which affects the sound of his voice.

It sounds sort of rugged and rough, and it doesn't stop him, obviously. It sort of becomes part of his public persona. Kind of his vocal trademark. Right. And to some observers, it sounds almost like he's been out for days on end, fighting the tough fight,

and has run his body and his voice hoarse. When we destroy nature, we diminish ourselves and we're imposing a cost upon ourselves that I don't think is prudent and on our children that I don't think we have the right to impose. Thank you very much. law career. He's really a source of pride for his family members because he is fulfilling the promise of the Kennedy family and what his father was unable to do in his life that was cut short. And then by the turn of the millennium, he's had so much success in identifying and holding to account these corporations that have caused chemical spills and long-term injury to the environment and to people, that he starts to attract the attention of what at the time was a growing community of vaccine skeptics. And these are

largely parents of children who have suffered some sort of, they call it, injury, is often vaccine injury. And people who believe that autism is caused by vaccinations or that other developmental disorders and delays are linked to chemicals in vaccines, chemicals in water. Even more broadly than that, that the public health infrastructure of this country might be complicit in damaging their children. So these parents see Robert Kennedy Jr. and his environmental work as making him, they think, a natural ally in this fight, which we should say, especially in the case of autism, is a belief that's been widely debunked, but yet very firmly held by many people. Right. And Kennedy then takes up this mantle of the injured, wronged parent and begins to take on these cases and do his own research. And then in 2005, he publishes these articles in Salon and Rolling Stone

in which he purports to lay out scientific evidence of vaccine damage to children. So this is kind of his national general audience debut as a major force in this parental world of vaccine skepticism. Correct. Now, those articles have since been retracted or qualified as the studies that gird them have kind of become widely debunked. But that didn't stop him. He has continued to raise questions. And in the years following his embrace of this cause, there were all sorts of instances of measles outbreaks, a rise in vaccine skepticism. of measles outbreaks, a rise in vaccine skepticism, and he played a really important, pivotal role in bringing that community, maybe not to the mainstream, but giving it more prominence

and acceptability. Right. Here's a Kennedy, a scion of American political royalty, saying it's okay, maybe even it's your duty not to get a vaccine. Right. You know, if a Kennedy is saying we can't trust our government and our public health establishment, I mean, we have to listen to him. And he gives it credibility. He gives the movement legs. But as big as this movement became, I don't think anyone was quite

prepared for how well the COVID pandemic would tap into that underlying skepticism and general fear. Right. So what does Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have to say when COVID rolls around and the government begins developing and releasing COVID vaccines? So I think we have to step back and see it as the bigger picture. His issue with the COVID response was not just about the vaccine. In the course of his sort of progression from environmental steward to anti-vaccine crusader, he developed a deep distrust of the government. And that has manifested itself not just in public health issues that he's raised, but also his open questioning of pieces of American history, including his own family. He has raised questions about whether the CIA played a

role in the death of his uncle, John F. Kennedy. Somewhere along the way, this skepticism about the public health establishment turned into a skepticism about the American government itself. to a skepticism about the American government itself. And from what I'm gathering, perhaps a conspiratorially-minded approach to all things government. That is exactly right. He sees in the workings of America a large conspiracy and corruption. So his role in the COVID pandemic is multifaceted. Oh, they tell you we just want you to lock down for two weeks. But then 20 months later, they still have us locked down. He pretty much immediately seizes on

the growing public skepticism of lockdown orders, of government intrusion into the free market, as he sees it. The minute they hand you that vaccine passport, every right that you have is transformed into a privilege contingent upon your obedience to arbitrary government dictates. It will make you a slave. He deeply distrusted the efforts of local and federal government to restrain the free movement of people. slave. He deeply distrusted the efforts of local and federal government to restrain the free movement

of people. And if you're going to give 22,000 vaccines to prevent one death, you better make sure the vaccine doesn't kill anybody. And finally, he openly questioned whether the COVID vaccines were safe. We are watching

something now that I never believed that I would see in my lifetime. That one day, the United States would be overtaken by fascism, orchestrated by Tony Fauci. And this led pretty quickly to him and a group that he ran being kicked off social media platforms. YouTube videos in which he espoused these theories were also removed from the platform.

And of course, this only confirmed in his mind and in the mind of his supporters that there was a vast conspiracy to silence him. Right. Because what could seem more like everyone trying to censor you than being kicked off social media platforms, I'm guessing the reason they did that, in fact, I recall it, is because those platforms believed he was spreading dangerous misinformation that endangered public health.

Correct. So Rebecca, around this time, I'm really curious, what are people close to Kennedy making of his transformation from this lionized public health hero to someone who seems to be becoming more and more of a fringy conspiracy theorist? Well, let's talk about his family. I think that over the course of his growing involvement with the anti-vaccine movement, he had already alienated them. Members of the Kennedy family. I think starts drawing alarms from people in his family and people close to him. Because now what had been Uncle Bobby's dinner table conspiracy theories are getting more attention. And he's drawing a growing crowd of supporters, people who may not agree with his vaccine views or may not agree with his work on autism and mercury or had no idea that he'd even been involved in that,

are drawn to his message that the COVID lockdowns are totalitarian and are drawn to his anti-government screeds and his sort of open questioning of what are we doing here. sort of open questioning of what are we doing here? And some of his own siblings started publicly pushing back against that and saying we pretty much categorically reject what he has to say about COVID. They're disavowing him publicly. They're disavowing him publicly. But he doesn't really care. He decides to take this growing base of public support, his growing platform, and enter the presidential race.

And in keeping with his family's history, his own voting record, he declares in April of this year that he is going to run as a Democrat. We'll be right back. Rebecca, beyond family legacy, beyond the fact that RFK Jr. is a member of Democratic political royalty, what's his logic in entering the presidential race as a Democrat, given the reality that there is an incumbent Democratic president and taking out incumbents in a primary is just really hard? So he would say that he is running as a Kennedy Democrat. Which means what? and taking out incumbents in a primary is just really hard. So he would say that he is running as a Kennedy Democrat. Which means what? Well, it's a nostalgic play, really, because what he's saying is that the Democratic Party used to be the party that was critical of war, that pushed back against corporate interests, that represented the common person,

and that the Democratic Party has forsaken that. And one thing that has emerged from his work in the anti-vaccine universe is a belief that certain very powerful corporations are secretly determining the course of American governance, and that they are trying to co-opt and hold captive entire branches of government for their own greedy purposes. What are some examples of that, according to him? So he mentions in particular BlackRock. The big investment company?

Yes. And its capture, as he sees it, of American housing and real estate. He sees, you know, Lockheed Martin, the defense contractor, as being inextricably bound up in American foreign policy and that Democrats are no longer willing to push back against that. He sees pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Moderna as being inextricably bound up in the response to the coronavirus pandemic and standing to profit immensely from government policies. So he sees essentially Joe Biden, the Democratic Party, the U.S. government as being basically held hostage by special interests and by big corporations. Which is a pretty populist strain of democratic

politics, which seems also to be tinged a little bit with something of a conspiratorial mindedness. Right. And the conspiratorial mindset is not helped by the fact that this year, Democratic National Committee decided to essentially rig or rejigger the... Depending on who you are. Depending on who you are and who you ask, the primary process, so that Joe Biden would have the easiest possible path to re-election. Right. We've talked about this on the show. This was the Democratic Party's decision to change the primary schedule. It was supposed to start in Iowa.

Instead, the party changed it to start in a state that Joe Biden did very well in, in 2020, South Carolina. The party in Biden said that's because it's a more diverse state than Iowa, which has typically been first. But to some, and I'm sure Kennedy, it looks a lot like a plan to re-nominate Joe Biden. Right. So it looks to Kennedy that the DNC is rigging it against him. And it's particularly frustrating for him because when he enters the race, he starts polling very well. How well? There were some polls of Democrats where he was up at 20 percent. That's a big. It's a big number. It's not insignificant. So you can imagine that to somebody who's already

in a kind of conspiratorial mindset, he sees this as the Democratic Party stifling a meaningful challenge to their preferred candidate. Right. And that is compounded by the fact that he continuously was calling for a debate. He wanted to debate Joe Biden. And debate is a big deal for him. He wanted an opportunity to have his perspective heard and to demand an answer and response from the incumbent.

And what was the response? There was no response. They will not schedule a debate because the DNC is backing the incumbent. And what was the response? There was no response. They will not schedule a debate because the DNC is backing the incumbent president, Joe Biden. Which must be very frustrating because if you're at 20% in a poll, that's higher than many of the Republicans who definitely get to debate each other.

Right, so that's why he decides that there is no path forward for him in the Democratic Party. And that's how we get to his decision just a few days ago that he is going to run as an independent. So tell us about that announcement. Here we are, Liberty Bell nearby.

It's a beautiful day. So it was in Philadelphia, and I went with a producer from The Daily, Mary Wilson. It was staged in front of the National Constitution Museum. Maybe upward of 1,000 people were there. Practice now. Everybody's invited to dance. It's sort of like a hippie Trump rally.

And are you ready for today? Are you ready for the next president of the United States, Bobby Kennedy? Are we ready to win? I'm here to declare myself an independent candidate. And what is his message as he announces that he is an independent candidate for president? Painful for me to let go of the party of my uncles, my father, my grandfather, and both of my great-grandfathers, Honey Fitz.

He basically said that it was a very difficult decision for him to leave the party of his childhood and of his family, but he felt that he had no choice. Americans are weary, they're tired of the culture war, and people suspect that the divisions are deliberately orchestrated. What I heard in Philadelphia was Kennedy taking his message of independence and of anti-corruption and even of a little bit of conspiracy and making a bigger tent of it and saying, I want to speak for the people. We're a populist movement that defies left-right divisions. I'm proud to say that my supporters include both pro-lifers and pro-choicers. They include climate activists and climate skeptics. They include vaccinated and unvaccinated.

This was his effort, more than I'd ever heard him say before, to define himself as part of a movement, as the vanguard of a movement, and inviting people to join him. And based on what you saw in this audience, how did that message resonate with the people there? So Mary and I wade out into the crowd and we speak with all sorts of people. When did you start taking a look at RFK Jr.? Well, I was looking around for anybody but Biden. We speak with Democrats who want an alternative to Biden. Historically, I've pretty much voted Democrat, but I feel that the Democratic Party has taken Black America for granted. Who feel maybe betrayed by the Democratic Party.

I've always been a Democrat. So I like the ability to actually vote for somebody who does have Democratic values, but is more moderate, I guess. These are lifelong Democrats, in some cases, who voted for Obama and Biden. Do you care to be interviewed at all? I am absolutely a conservative,

and I've never voted for a Democrat myself. We spoke with Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in the past two elections. And I was so fed up after the last election. You know, you look at the polls and stuff, and some of the outcomes just don't make sense or whatever. So I was frustrated with the system. There's also a strain of people who are very drawn to his name. I don't know. I like the

Kennedy family. You know, they did a lot of great things for this country. So I support the Kennedys. Really people across the political spectrum and people of both parties that we spoke to had a tendency to repeat back some of the theories. The assassination of his uncle, when he's talking about like it might have been like an inside type job. That he has publicly espoused, including name-checking corporations. And also with like BlackRock, they're one of the top three shareholders in 88% of the companies in America. BlackRock got mentioned to us by several people. When they're that big of a shareholder,

they're sitting down with the executives of these companies and saying, this is what you're going to do, or we're going to sell our shares. And that conspiratorial mindset really does inform a lot of his supporters. And then we spoke to people from both parties who really just hate the idea of a repeat of the last election and in fact see that likely matchup as a sign that the system needs some fresh blood and to be shaken up a little bit.

Do you think if he were not running, would you cast a vote in the upcoming presidential election? No. There isn't a candidate in my mind. Although, you know, it's tempting to vote for Trump to get rid of Biden, but that wouldn't work. It would just be trading one monster for another monster. So I'm done with the monster thing, you know? So what you're describing makes me think of him, and I want you to tell me if this is right,

as kind of a catch-all for Americans who are alienated from our politics, and a lot of Americans are, those who have gone down the rabbit hole of this internet era and are drawn to theories about the government and corporations and who's really pulling the strings, and those who just love the idea of a Kennedy back in the mix and taken together, I have to imagine that could be a fair number of people. Right. And that cross-section that you just described includes people who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020, or who sat out 2020 after being disillusioned after the 2016 election. And that really gets us to the question of who has more to fear here, the Democrats or the Republicans?

Right, because his appeal, as you have laid bare, is really bipartisan. Yeah, it's a bipartisan, almost anti-partisan appeal. Non-partisan, anti-partisan. Non-partisan. And it was really telling to me and to my colleagues in the politics team that about an hour before he started his speech declaring independence, the Republican National Committee put out a email saying 23 reasons not to vote for RFK Jr. And that sort of just tells you something, right? That they are already seeing him as a potential threat to Donald Trump or to the potential nominee. And they're describing him as pretty much a rank-and-file Democrat in all but name.

But the fact that they put it out there— To which there's a little bit of truth because he just was one. To which there's a little bit of truth. But it means they're afraid of him as a challenger to a Republican. Right. And Democrats, of course, fear him too because the feeling is that the incumbent has more to lose here when there's the presence of a third party or independent candidate. So there's genuine uncertainty and a lot of interest in which side Kennedy will be helping or hurting. Right. So look, as an independent candidate, he faces a tremendous uphill battle getting on

the ballot in all 50 states. Right. Has to get the signatures. It's a whole rigmarole. Right, and each state has its own rules, and it's a huge endeavor. But he doesn't even have to get on the ballot in all 50 states to be a spoiler, because really what it comes down to, or what it's likely to come down to, is tens of thousands of votes in a few critical swing states. Right, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona.

Michigan, Pennsylvania. And if in those states he's able to pull votes away or even cause people not to vote at all, that makes him a spoiler. And that could have significant ramifications for the election. And that is truly what both parties are worried about. I think at this point they're not quite worried that he's going to win the presidency.

It's a fear that he will do just enough at the margins and just enough at the right margins to swing the results one way or another. Rebecca, thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. The Democrats are frightened that I'm going to spoil the election for President Biden. And the Republicans are frightened that I'm going to spoil it for President Trump. The truth is, they're both right. My intention is to spoil it for both of them. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.

On Wednesday, Israel formed an emergency government that will sideline political hardliners and incorporate two new ministers, both former army chiefs, as the country prepares for what could be a drawn-out war with Hamas in response to its massacre of 1,200 Israelis over the weekend. In a speech announcing the new government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that, quote, every member of Hamas is a dead man. In Gaza, where Israel is launching airstrikes aimed at Hamas, more than 1,100 Palestinians have been killed. Local officials said that Israel is targeting buildings that are normally off-limits, including schools, hospitals, and mosques. And House Republicans have nominated

their majority leader, Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, as their next speaker. But it's unclear whether he has sufficient support to actually win the job during a vote on the House floor. Scalise can only afford to lose the votes of four fellow Republicans, but so far, seven of them have said they will not support him. Today's episode was produced by Mary Wilson, Stella Tan, and Rob Zipko, with help from Rochelle Banja. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Devin Taylor. Fact-checked by Susan Lee. Contains original music by Dan Powell and Marian Lozano. And was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lanthorpe of Wonderland.

That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.