The Daily - The Swing Issue That Could Win a Swing State

Episode Date: January 24, 2020

Three Rust Belt swing states are critical to winning the presidency this year — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, there is one issue that could be decisive: fracking natural gas.Opposition to fracking could be fatal for a candidate in the state, yet front-runners for the Democratic nomination have committed to banning fracking nationwide if elected. We went to western Pennsylvania, where fracking affects residents daily, to see whether electability in the state could really be reduced to this single issue.Guests: Shane Goldmacher, a national political reporter for The New York Times, traveled to Pennsylvania with Andy Mills and Monika Evstatieva, producers for “The Daily.” For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Background reading: Our investigative team revealed how immense amounts of methane, the primary gas acquired by fracking, are escaping from oil and gas sites nationwide, worsening global warming.What is fracking? And why is it so harmful to the communities that come in contact with the toxins it leaves behind?

Test one, two, three. Tell me about your experience going around the country right now. Yeah, so I've been basically traveling around the country and like everybody I talk to, you ask them who they support for president, they give you some kind of an answer. And then what they really are asking though, and what they really seem to want to know is, well, who can win? Like, who's the best candidate to win? They don't want to just know who they like. They want to know who some magical person they don't want to just know who they like.

They want to know who some magical person they don't know in a swing state likes. This is the electability conversation. This is the electability conversation. Everybody seems to want, more than anything, to beat Donald Trump. And a lot of people, they care about what they care about, but they also seem to care what other people who they don't know, who live thousands or a hundred miles away care about.

If you like Bernie Sanders, it's like, is he too old? If you like Elizabeth Warren, it's like, well, can a woman win after what happened with Hillary Clinton? If you like Pete Buttigieg, you're like, well, he's gay. Or Medicare for all, it's like, well, is that going too far? Or is that going to bring out a bunch of young people? Like everyone's just kind of like gaming who can win, essentially. Yes, absolutely. It's like it's issues and it's identity and it's all wrapped up in a giant set of insecurities that the entire Democratic Party has that they're going to lose again.

And they don't know why. And they somehow want to answer that question in advance. Well, just can you just who are you? Can you just introduce yourself? And then, yeah, we'll get into where we're going. I'm Shane Goldmacher. I'm a political reporter for the New York Times. And we are just crossing over a river driving to Braddock, Pennsylvania. From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. Michael Barbaro, this is The Daily. Today, the electability question that's consuming the Democratic Party is difficult to report on because it often feels so abstract. But if electability

is a question of who can gather the votes needed to beat Donald Trump in the general election, then there are three Rust Belt swing states that are critical to winning this year. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And in Pennsylvania, there is one issue that could be decisive. Fracking natural gas. So opposition to fracking could be fatal for a candidate there. And yet... Today, Senator Elizabeth Warren said in a tweet

that she would ban fracking everywhere in an executive order. We need to put an end to fracking all over this country. Two leading Democratic candidates have said that if elected, they will ban fracking everywhere. My colleagues Shane Goldmacher, Andy Mills, and Monica Efstatieva traveled to western Pennsylvania to see if electability is as simple as who supports fracking in Pennsylvania. It's Friday, January 24th.

We're in Bratton, Pennsylvania, driving to the home of the lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, of the lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, who I think in a lot of ways embodies this question that Democrats are struggling with over who to support and who can win. We've arrived. So we arrive at John Fetterman's house. We have a lot of power lines and smoke, steam, and a steel plant with high voltage signs. It's across the street from a steel mill.

No trespassing security patrol. It's exactly what you would imagine a western Pennsylvania landscape to look like. Let's go meet him. And John Fetterman comes out to say hello. How are you? Good, how are you? I'm doing excellent. Fetterman doesn't look like your typical politician.

You own the building. Six foot eight. He's a bald guy, goatee, tattoos on his arms. Is this all your place? We shake hands. We go into his apartment. This is so cool. Second floor of an old industrial-type building.

Christmas decorations up because it's December. Well, tell us where you want us to sit down and... And he escorts us to a couple of couches in the middle of the room. And we begin talking. My name's John Fetterman. I'm the lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. And we are sitting in my home, which sits directly across the street from the Edgar Thompson steel mill here in Braddock,

Pennsylvania. His story is interesting. He may not look like a typical politician, but he has some of the typical politician pedigree. He went to Harvard for public policy school. I came to Braddock out of graduate school because I wanted to take an opportunity to confront in my own way the raging inequality that I had witnessed and seen in this country. And what he finds when he moves to Braddock in 2001 is this suffering and struggling post-industrial western Pennsylvania town that 100 years ago had 20,000 people and now has a little over 2,000 people. Abandonment. 90% of the population was gone. Huge disparity in what you see here versus what you would see 15 minutes away and around Pittsburgh. And four years after moving there, he ran for mayor. I won the primary and took office.

I feel like you skipped a part of how close your election was. Well, if you already, quite frankly, I mean, you don't want to go over this stuff. Yeah, this is well-worn. He wins by one vote. And as mayor, he sort of really began to embody this little town. He had the zip code tattooed on one of his forearms, and on his other forearm, he would tattoo the date of every homicide that happened under his watch as mayor. And he became sort of seen as like a symbol of Braddock, this sort of rough western Pennsylvania town. The things that brought me to Braddock are the things that informed me on what I've wanted to accomplish statewide. Eventually, he has higher ambition for statewide office. He runs for Senate in 2016 and badly loses the Democratic primary.

He runs for lieutenant governor in 2018, and this time he wins, running from the left. When you line up your sort of viewpoints, you fall pretty far on the progressive spectrum, right? I don't know. I fall on what I think is the fair spectrum on issues. Well, Bernie Sanders endorsed you last year, came out and campaigned for you, right? In 2018, he did. Not in 2016. So John Fetterman may not like labels, but. I've been unapologetically forceful in my views on criminal justice, inequality, living wage, women's reproductive freedom, marijuana legalization, immigration. My wife was an undocumented dreamer.

I performed the first same sex wedding in Pennsylvania when it was still illegal in Pennsylvania, in this very building. He aligns closely with the left of the Democratic Party with one big notable exception. Men and women need to eat and put a roof over their head, and I am willing to die on the Union Way of Life

hill. Fracking. In western Pennsylvania, the Union Way of Life, especially in the last decade, is so dependent on fracking, the extraction of natural gas from deep in the ground. There needs to be the most stringent, rigorous environmental controls and oversights, and plans to continually transition towards cleaner energy sources, but it's still a necessary part of our economy. And so while John Fetterman would not describe himself and he would probably resist the label of being a pro-energy, pro-industry Democrat, he wants to fight for those jobs.

And that puts him at odds with the left of the Democratic Party. You know, vote your job, lobby your hobby, you know? And it's like- Explain that. What do you mean by vote your job? Vote your job. It's like, okay, what if you are particularly keen on gun rights or any of these other issues? You can lobby and be about that. But at the end of the day, don't you want to take a vacation and be paid for it? Don't you want to have enough money to send your kids to school? If you destroy unions, I don't have a job or I don't have a job that can keep a roof over my head or pay my bills. And here's where Fetterman is concerned about what he's seeing in the presidential contest, especially from the

progressive candidates he's otherwise so closely aligned with. Where are you when you look at this 2020 field? You haven't endorsed yet, right? No, I haven't. And where I'm at right now is that I am alarmed that there could be a false sense of complacency within our party. He's touching on one of the real concerns that Democrats have, that the economy is doing

better and Donald Trump can get reelected because of it. And at the same time, you have some Democrats talking about ending entire industries like fracking. That is a key source of good, high-paying jobs in his corner of his state, which happens to be one of the most important states in the country. I'm the only candidate which has a policy about how to bring economic opportunity using clean, renewable energy as the key into coal country. You talk to John Fetterman, and he's haunted by the 2016 election, and in particular, a stray remark by Hillary Clinton. One of the things that damaged her specifically was this quote.

We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business. Right, Tim? To the effect that she can't wait to put coal miners, you know, out of business. out of business. And coal miners is a profession that is easily transferable to steel or other industry jobs. She lost Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes, and he doesn't want that to happen again. Is there a parallel with fracking now? Well, I worry that there could be a parallel. As I've said on the record, that Pennsylvania is a margin play and an outright ban on fracking isn't a margin play. That's provocative. He sees Pennsylvania as so close that almost anything can make the difference. And in fact, President Trump has already made clear that he wants to campaign in Pennsylvania on fracking. Well, thank you to Vice President Pence. Thank you, Mike.

And hello, Pennsylvania. Hello. Last evening, the president had a rally in Hershey. Hershey chocolate. I like Hershey chocolate. And of all the places that Mr. Trump could have picked on all days when the articles of impeachment were rolled out, he went to Pennsylvania. And in the state of Pennsylvania, natural gas production is up 34% since our election.

34. Last night demonstrated that we underestimate him at our party's peril in 2020. Virtually every leading Democrat has pledged to entirely eliminate American production of oil, clean coal, natural gas. They obviously believe it, as I have said, that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.

Thousands and thousands of jobs, incredible. Now, of course, John Fetterman isn't the only Pennsylvania Democrat worried about this. The mayor of Pittsburgh, local officials in fracking counties, including one county that just flipped to Republican control for the first time in decades, they're worried about this. And when it comes to presidential candidates, Joe Biden is taking Pennsylvania very seriously. In fact, he's made it the center of his argument for why he's the most electable Democrat running for president. He held his first campaign rally in Pittsburgh. He held his campaign kickoff in Philadelphia.

He claims heritage in Scranton. And unlike some of his rivals, Joe Biden isn't calling for a complete ban on fracking. In fact, he said that there's no way that that's going to get done. I'm Aaron. And what I'm wondering is... And when an activist came and confronted him about this in December... I've looked at your climate plan. Why doesn't it ban fracking? Well, why doesn't it ban fracking? Because you can't ban fracking right now. You got to transition away from it. Look, you're going to ban fracking because you can't ban fracking right now. You've got to transition away from it.

Look, you're going to ban fracking all across America right now, right? I would love to. Yeah, I'd love to too. I'd love to make sure we don't use any oil or gas, period, now. Now. Is it possible? Yes. He told them that they shouldn't vote for him.

He takes it that seriously. Joe Biden definitely has a distinct advantage in winning Pennsylvania. Simply because of his roots and where he's at and perceived and being completely neutral. Joe Biden would be all but impossible for Trump to beat in Pennsylvania. And Trump knows that. So here's that thing again. He's talking about who he thinks is most electable and not who he necessarily likes best. Do you think Bernie Sanders can beat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania? I think any one of the candidates, the mainstream

candidates, can beat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. But it's going to be difficult for any of the candidates, if that makes sense. Yeah. But maybe less difficult for Joe Biden in your view. I would say, being completely honest, he would have an easier time than other candidates. But I push back that every one of our candidates could do it. And so, but... This is why it's like a conundrum, right? Like, Democrats across the country are trying to decide whether they vote for the candidate who they most like and most line up with or the candidate who can beat Donald Trump or who they think can beat Donald Trump or who they think can beat Donald Trump in a swing state. And nobody actually knows the answer to that question. We talked about going to Clareton.

Are there people you wanted to go meet there? Well, if you want to go to Clareton, I can put it for the last... As we wrap up, Fetterman makes pretty clear he thinks that we should be talking to other people too. Union members, union leaders, activists in Pennsylvania to get a sense of how fracking and the leading Democratic candidates are playing. We'll be right back.

So a group of union leaders have agreed to meet us at an Italian restaurant in Pittsburgh. We're showing up just as lunch is already wrapped, and we sit down and introduce ourselves. Kenny Broadbent. I'm with the Steamfitters Union. Jim Clintz, Operating Engineers. I reach class Mechanical Contractors. Jeff Nobers. I'm the executive director of the Builders Guild. I'm Tom Melch. I'm the head of the building charge. Nice to meet you.

Each of the union leaders have members that at least have some tie to the oil and gas industry in western Pennsylvania. We're the guys that run all the heavy equipment, the cranes, the bulldozers. The emitters do heating, air conditioning, refrigeration, and process pipe work. So a lot of pipeline work, a lot of work in the natural gas industry. So when it comes to natural gas, we get to work on the chirogenic plants. My international does the pipelines. Collectively, these unions represent around 60,000 people. How big a share of your membership is Democratic?

My guess would be 90% of our members are registered Democrat. Potentially the margin for the 2020 election in Pennsylvania. We don't see all the evils that they talk about in fracking. And the first thing they want to do is tell us about just how important fracking has been in this part of the state for their members. In 2010, my local was at about 10% unemployment. Natural gas started to come here in about 2010. Within a year to a year and a half,

we went from 10% unemployment to actually over-employment. I had to look for people. We went to full employment, and we've been at or near full employment and occasionally over-employed since. There's a few things they wanted to focus on. Because when people got jobs and are making middle-class ways of life, the economy's better. There's less crime, there's less alcoholism, less drug use.

At the end of the day, if I don't have a job, if I don't have health care, if I can't take care of my family, it doesn't matter if we have global peace and gun control and everything else. You know, how do I go to my members and say, OK, kill the industry you're working in? Jobs and jobs. The green jobs that they're talking about that they're going to replace your job with don't exist. And the few that do exist pay 10, 15 dollars an hour with no French package while my members 50 to 60 dollars an hour total package, good wages. Jobs are the most important thing.

So one of the big criticisms of fracking is that locally it creates environmental problems and globally it's another generation of fossil fuel use at a time when scientists say we need to stop using fossil fuels. And why should we send these petrochemical plants, for instance, over to China where they won't worry about the pollution? And they're arguing not that fracking is perfect, but that it's the best option, that taking natural gas from Pennsylvania is better than taking oil or some other fossil fuel from some other part of the Middle East. At least here, we're going to do it with the most modern technology and with the least

amount of pollution possible. And we're still going to keep people that have jobs here. And when it comes to politics in Pennsylvania, these guys, union leaders, carry weight. They advise their tens of thousands of members on what the important public policy issues are out there and how they might want to vote. You know, if we end up with a Democratic candidate that supports a fracking ban, I'm going to tell my members that they either don't vote or vote for the other guy. And I am not a fan of the president. I will be the first to tell you that. I did not vote for the president. I did not ask my members to vote for the president. We supported Clinton in the last election. But at this point, given the nature of work, you know, I may have to do something that I'm not totally happy with.

You would support Trump over a candidate? I don't know that I would have a choice. I would at least be neutral. This is a big deal in a state decided by so few votes and for a person who doesn't just represent his own vote, but is going to be advising many other people on how they should vote, too. And we wanted, just before you guys look at it, we want to just ask one other question, just for the audio thing. And so I asked him directly. If Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is the nominee, how many of you guys are going to vote for Donald Trump? I would. I wouldn't vote. I don't know if I would vote for him, but I won't vote. I mean,

I would have to think long and hard. It would be tough. Tough for me to pull Trump's leader. And it would be for other reasons. If I was voting strictly on my membership, I would vote for Trump. But I wouldn't be doing that for me. I'd vote for Trump. I couldn't. I can't.

I just can't do it. My hand would be... Shaking. It would be tough. How do you vote for somebody like that? They're all the same. You can quote me on this. Bernie Sanders is the Donald Trump of the left. shaking. It would be tough. How do you vote for somebody like that? They're all the same. You can quote me on this. Bernie Sanders is the Donald Trump of the left. That's personally what I think.

Says a lot of ridiculous stuff and promises all kinds of stuff. He has no idea how he's going to deliver. Sort of sounds like the president on the escalator. That's Bernie Sanders. The only way I'd go is Biden. The only way I'd go is Biden. The only way I'd go is Biden.

And I'm a Democrat. He makes a lot of sense. He's the guy from, the mayor from South Bend. But I don't think he can get elected. But at least when he looks in the camera,

he's got the Clinton-Obama look that you'd want to believe in what he's saying and he's articulate. You know, it scares me. I love Joe Biden, but lately he's not as articulate.

Right. What's Trump going to do? What's going to happen when they start getting the bait? I watch Fox News. I watch all the different... But obviously, these union leaders are just one side of a political equation. And on the other side, you have Democrats who are passionate about climate change, who think fracking is terrible for Pennsylvania and for the planet. Shane, do you want to describe the room? Yeah, we're on the second floor of the library. And as it happens, we found out that while we were in town,

there's a meeting of local environmentalists at the public library. And so we show up. There are bamboo plates, cups, and utensils to be taken, but not to be taken or to tossed. Food served, a mix of all plant-based food. We've got hummus and tabbouleh. In the corner is a tabling for vegan spirituality. We've got a couple of different environmental groups looking for signups and a lot of people who seem to already know each other.

We also are currently smelling, I think, some marijuana in the second floor of this library. This might have turned out to be sage. The official name of the event is the Reimagined the Turtle Creek Watershed and Airshed Visioning Session. As active participants in our inter-human food ecosystem, we each have the power to help heal this planet we call home. A lot of them call themselves fractivists. My name is Alyssa. Alyssa. The thing they're most focused on is fracking.

Fracking is rape because the chemicals that are carcinogens, the benzene, the toluene, and everything else that's... Ending and stopping fracking in their part of Pennsylvania. They're injecting into our fresh water of our three rivers that we've been cleaning up here for the past 30 years. They're taking our resources against our will. My name is Jillian Graber.

Are you planning on voting? I am. I always vote. If you don't mind my asking, what party do you usually vote for? Well, it varies. I don't really consider myself to be part of one party. For a while, I was actually, I was a registered Republican. And then when Bernie Sanders was running last, I wanted to be able to vote for him, you know, knowing what he stands for with the environment. So I switched over so I could vote in the primary election for him. You became a Democrat for the first time. I did. Yeah. For Bernie. Yeah. But I don't know if I identify with the Democratic Party wholeheartedly, mainly because, you know, we have a Democratic governor and he is very pro industry. OK, so when it comes to the 2020 contest, who is it that you're favoring? Are you still a supporter of Bernie Sanders? I still am a supporter of Bernie Sanders. I know that Elizabeth Warren

also stands for very similar things, and I would consider potentially voting for her. I do not believe under any circumstances that somebody like Joe Biden, who a lot of people feel like maybe the front runner, would be a good, would be somebody that would be good for our nation. For the environmentalists at this library, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are visionaries who are going to fix the biggest challenges facing our planet. My name is Ellie Gordon. I heard that you were talking about the political candidates

and how they feel about fracking. And so I have a lot to say on it. I just want to give my feedback. What is your thoughts? Are you going to be just as excited to support a Pete Buttigieg or Joe Biden if they're the nominee? No. And I will not volunteer for their campaign. I will not openly support a candidate who does not take a strong environmental stance in banning fracking. How do you think that will play outside the city if a Bernie Sanders or an Elizabeth Warren is the nominee for the people who work in the industry or work around the industry?

How do you, you know, do you worry about all those people suddenly coming out in droves? I'm not worried about that because the people who work in the industry and work around it, it's not that many. So they have a loud voice because they have a lot of money, but there aren't that many people. There's the ability for there to be way more jobs in renewable energy. And so I don't think that's going to be an issue. I strongly feel like Bernie or Elizabeth Warren could easily win. And so the argument for the left, for the Sanders and the Warren candidacies, and for others, is that we're going to turn out young people and people who care passionately about the environment in vast numbers by being bold and showing them where

we want to go. And the idea that you're going to win back a big enough share of people from these energy-friendly Democrats who are working in industry, that that's not the play, that that's actually, in fact, not the margin play. The margin play is to mobilize a greater number of younger people who aren't actually already voting. Do you think there's just going to be more young people

or more people motivated by climate politics not in fracking country. Absolutely. This is an entirely untested proposition. When is the last time the Democratic Party nominated somebody who was talking about building a movement that was outside of the traditional bounds

of the mainstream of the party? Elizabeth Warren's talking about big structural change. Bernie Sanders is talking about a revolution. You can't project what that exactly looks like based on the past because it hasn't happened. Can you make that a winning argument? We just don't know. And so you see somebody like Joe Biden

who wants to not ban fracking. But the interesting thing in talking to these folks at the library, and this was really striking compared to the union leaders, was that at the end of the day, if they don't get their preferred nominee. What would you vote for him? I would, if he was the only option, I would vote for him and I would feel gross about it. But the lesser of two evils. Great, thank you.

You're welcome. So let's say the nominee is somebody like Joe Biden, somebody like Pete Buttigieg. I mean, we're at a really weird juxtaposition. You know, there's a lot, I'm sort of between a rock and a hard place on where do I spend my vote? Because on the one hand, Biden says,

if you want me to ban fracking, then you better vote for somebody else. And to me, that's like like that's a slap in the face and a slap across the faces of every scientist in the world who is screaming about the urgency of addressing climate change at top speed. So I'm a climate voter and I will cast my vote for the best prospect for climate that I can manage. And if that becomes a race between Biden and Trump, I feel Biden is better for climate than Trump by a long shot, better for a lot of things. When it comes to electability and when it comes to the issue of fracking in the state of Pennsylvania, this is what we saw. One group of voters, union leaders,

said that if they didn't get their preferred nominee, they might not vote for the Democrat and they might even vote for Donald Trump. And another group of voters, environmentalists, who said that if they didn't get their nominee, they'd still vote for the Democrat. But yeah, nationally, yeah, I'll vote for a Democrat, but that's not the issue. I would vote for a centrist, but I really don't like that framing because I think it's a little bit defeatist.

I would vote for anybody that was running against Trump. I would even vote for Mike Pence running against Trump. I think Trump is evil and dangerous, and we need to replace him with almost anybody who's breathing. We'll be right back. Annie Brown, Claire Tennesketter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon-Johnson, Brad Fisher, Larissa Anderson, Wendy Dorr, Chris Wood, Jessica Chung, Alexandra Lee Young, Jonathan Wolfe, Lisa Chow, Eric Krupke, Mark George, Luke Vanderplug, Adiza Egan, Kelly Prime, Julia Longoria, Sindhu Jnanasambandam, Special thanks to Sam Dolmick, Michaela Bouchard, Stella Tan, Julia Simon, Lauren Jackson, Nora Keller, and David Krakals. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Bavaro. See you on Monday.