The Daily - The Tale of California’s Recall Election

Episode Date: August 30, 2021

Almost from the moment Gavin Newsom was elected governor of California, there were attempts to remove him from office. Initially, a recall election against him seemed highly unlikely — but the pandemic has changed things.What is behind the recall effort against Mr. Newsom, and what happens next?Guest: Shawn Hubler, a California correspondent for The New York Times. Sign up here to get The Daily in your inbox each morning. And for an exclusive look at how the biggest stories on our show come together, subscribe to our newsletter. Background reading: Some 22 million ballots have begun landing in the mailboxes of California voters ahead of the Sept. 14 election. Here’s what to know about the recall election.Can Mr. Newsom keep his job? The recall vote is expected to come down to whether Democrats can mobilize enough of the state’s enormous base to counteract Republican enthusiasm for the governor’s ouster.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

From New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. In the coming days, the Democratic governor of an overwhelmingly Democratic state may be removed from office and replaced by a Republican. Today, Kevin Roos spoke to our colleague Sean Hubler about the tangled tale of California's recall election. It's Monday, August 30th. Sean, hello. Hi, how you doing?

I'm doing well. How are you? Okay. Where are you right now? I'm in lovely Sacramento, under blue, only slightly wildfire, smoky skies, and air quality that's okay for now. I'm also in California, in the Bay Area, and I want to talk to you about two things that I got in the mail the other day. Okay. The first was a ballot, mail-in ballot, asking me if I wanted to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom. And if so, who do I want to replace him? And then

there was about a 46-person list of possible replacements. And the second thing I got in the mail was a voter guide explaining who those people were. And it was a wild ride. I mean, I saw a few names I recognized, you know, Caitlyn Jenner of Kardashians fame was on there. And then a whole bunch of people I didn't recognize. And when I started reading their candidate statements, it was a trip. So one of them, for example, was a Green Party candidate pictured wearing sunglasses whose candidate statement just said, can you dig it? There was a independent candidate whose candidate statement said, search YouTube. And then my favorite was the candidate who as their candidate statement just wrote two words, love you. The letter U. So I guess my first question is, what the hell is going on here?

Well, this is a California recall. And it's a strange but glorious trait of California politics and the California political landscape that periodically governors have to confront a recall attempt against them. Because it's easier in California to recall a governor than it is in almost any other state that allows them. All you need to do is gather signatures from 12% of the people who voted in the last gubernatorial election. But typically, they don't work. Only one other attempt to recall a sitting governor has ever qualified for the ballot. That was when Republicans ousted Gray Davis in 2003

and the state elected Arnold Schwarzenegger. But every governor in California for the last 60 years has had at least one recall attempt against him. And Governor Newsom was no exception. And for the non-Californians in our audience, who is Gavin Newsom? What's his deal? So Gavin Newsom is a Democrat. He's a young father.

He has four children. He was the mayor of San Francisco. He was lieutenant governor for two terms. And he was a popular figure. And in 2018... Thank you, California. Gavin Newsom was elected in a landslide in California. I will have the incredible privilege of serving as your next governor. the incredible privilege of serving as your next governor.

He seemed to signal kind of a new passing of the torch in politics in California. The sun is rising in the West and the arc of history is bending in our direction. He was among Democrats who dominate California, kind of a galvanizing figure, and he had a really ambitious and popular agenda. He helped pass a ballot initiative that legalized marijuana in the state. I think the war on marijuana is all but over. And for me, that's a social justice issue. It's a criminal justice issue. It's a racial justice issue. He was going to address homelessness in the state. We're committed to launching a Marshall Plan for affordable housing, and we'll lift up the fight against homelessness from a local matter to a statewide mission. He had a big climate change agenda.

We don't put profit and loss ahead of clean water and clean coastlines. He was going to do a lot. He had high hopes, and there were high hopes for him. So he's, from what you're telling me, a fairly popular Democratic governor in a state that is heavily Democratic. So what's the problem? The problem is a little bit of a nuanced issue. There's a robust and significant strain of conservatism in California.

You wouldn't think it because only about a quarter of the votes are Republican. But almost from the moment that Gavin Newsom was elected, the conservatives in the state began trying to recall him. A small group of Facebook friends started this recall effort, mostly in rural California and in a few other sort of slightly redder parts of the state. And they had a number of general Republican complaints about Democratic policies. The people voted for the death penalty to be maintained, and he came in and unilaterally overrode that. They didn't like the governor's opposition to the death penalty.

The governor of the largest state in our country empowering these folks that are here unlawfully. They didn't like his stance on immigration. California has become unlivable. And the first order of business is removing a governor who is a political extremist. But this recall was a long shot. It wasn't expected to go anywhere. And it would have stayed a long shot had it not been for the pandemic.

What do you mean? When the pandemic started and it hit California, Governor Newsom was among the earliest and most aggressive proponents of following the science and shutting things down early. We direct a statewide order for people to stay at home. He acted on the advice of epidemiologists who were really urging the state to social distance and take precautions and not gather in large groups. No gatherings of more than three households present. And those gatherings can be no longer than two hours. And the governor began to really act to protect people in a much more aggressive way than many governors across the country. We need to make tough decisions. We need to bend the curve

in the state of California. And initially, Californians were, you know, kind of okay with it. of California. And initially, Californians were, you know, kind of okay with it. They were sheltering at home, people were wearing masks. But then as time wore on, people began to get pandemic fatigue, and then two important things happened. On November 6th, a Superior Court judge in Sacramento gave the proponents of the recall an extra four months to continue to circulate petitions. Why did they do that? They argued that they hadn't really had the ability to gather the signatures they needed because the shutdown order that the governor had initiated had prevented them from going to supermarkets and malls and places like that where they could get people to sign on. And the folks behind the recall were frustrated. They couldn't get the signatures. They just knew were out there among unsatisfied

Californians that they were sure were as angry with the governor as they were. So the judge essentially gave them an extension. That's right. And on the same day that this extension is made final by this judge in Sacramento, the governor decides to go to a birthday party in the Napa Valley at the French Laundry Restaurant, which is an extremely expensive,

extremely exclusive, extremely fabulous restaurant that costs hundreds of dollars a plate for diners. I've heard of that. I've never been someday if I win the lottery. It's one of the best restaurants in the country. People come from all over the world to eat there. Reservations are sold out within minutes of opening them. They only open reservations once a month and you have to call a special number or sign up online and you can never get a reservation. So the governor goes to this birthday party with his wife and his friend who is a lobbyist. And they sit down in this room that's kind of an indoor-outdoor type room. It complies with state rules, but it's enclosed and you can see into it.

And the governor and his friends are not wearing masks. And people notice and they talk and some of them take pictures. I remember when this happened. It was sort of all anyone could talk about. People did not see those pictures and go, wow, looks like a nice dinner. Glad he had a good time. No. Californians were outraged.

At this time, he really needed to step up and be that example for us. I think it's highly hypocritical of him. This was coming up into the holidays. Is it setting a good example to do exactly what you're telling the rest of us not to do? No. The governor had asked people to stay home and not gather. Tonight, while Governor Newsom is telling all of us to have Thanksgiving dinner outside. To not eat Thanksgiving dinner together if they could avoid it.

He's facing some new fallout for that fancy birthday dinner party he went to at the French Laundry. It was just insult upon injury. I made a mistake being with a few extra people beyond the guidelines that I've been promoting, which is outside the households. That was a mistake. the guidelines that I've been promoting, which is outside the households. That was a mistake. What did this dinner, this party at the French Laundry, what did it do to the recall movement? Before the French Laundry incident, there were about 50,000 signatures on the petitions to recall the governor. A month later, there were more than a half a million. Wow.

It supercharged the whole recall. The Republican National Committee was involved, the state Republican Party was involved, and money was starting to come in from Republicans around the United States. So I guess in some ways, that dinner, that fateful dinner at the French Laundry, is one of the reasons, maybe, that I have this ballot with 46-odd names on it of people who might become the next governor of California. The dinner, the frustration with the pandemic, this extra time that this judge gave to gather signatures, all of those things came together. And all of a sudden, what seemed like a real long shot, the recall of a Democratic governor in a heavily Democratic state, that has become an actual possibility. an actual possibility. We'll be right back. So, Sean, of the dozens of people on this ballot who might replace Governor Newsom, who are the frontrunners?

There's the former mayor of San Diego, a guy named Kevin Faulconer, who's a Republican. There's a guy named Kevin Kiley, who is an assemblyman in a conservative district in sort of suburban Northern California. in a conservative district in sort of suburban Northern California. There's a guy named Kevin Paffroth, who is a YouTube financial advisor with like a million point seven subscribers. Is there anyone not named Kevin who is a front runner in this race? Yes, there are three Kevins, but there's also a Larry, Larry Elder. And he's kind of seen to be the frontrunner among these 46 challengers.

Talk Radio presents the Larry Elder Show. 7-9-D, K-A-B-C, Talk Radio. So Larry Elder, he's had a very popular radio show for a very long time in California. And this is Larry Elder, absolutely quite positively, a.k.a. the sage from South Central. He's kind of the Rush Limbaugh of California conservatives. The glass ceiling is a myth. He has very clear, right-leaning opinions. The minimum wage law destroys jobs for the very people that the left claims to care about. How can you possibly have a position advocating further gun control legislation

without even knowing how often Americans use guns for defensive purposes? You're being conned. You're being conned by people like Maxine Waters, telling you that you're held back because of systemic racism. It's a con. And he has, most importantly, high name recognition. People ask, why are we calling Newsom? Well, he acted like a tyrant, ordering your kids out of public school. California has 40 million people. It has five major media markets. It is highly expensive to run a statewide race here.

He's arrogant. He's incompetent. And so Larry Elder has what many of these candidates don't have, which is that he is known statewide. I'm Larry Elder, and this is a fight for the soul of California. I'm Larry Elder, and this is a fight for the soul of California. So, Sean, of the dozens of people running to replace Governor Newsom in this recall election, do any of them actually stand a chance of winning? You wouldn't think so, but there are two questions on the ballot. The first question asks, do we want to recall the governor? Yes or no? And then the second question asks,

if the governor is recalled, who should replace him among these 46 candidates that, by the way, do not include the governor? And so if the majority vote recalls the governor, then whoever wins the second question will become the governor. And to win that second question, you don't need a majority. You only need a plurality. You only need to get more votes than the other 45 candidates. So you could theoretically become the governor of California even if you only got, say, 15% of the votes in the special election. As long as nobody else got 16%, right. So in order to beat back the recall,

Governor Newsom needs to get a 50% plus one majority of the votes on the first question, on the recall question. He needs as many people as possible to vote no on the recall. In theory, that should be an easy thing to get. California is overwhelmingly Democratic. 46% of the voters in California are registered Democrats, and only a quarter of the voters are registered Republicans. But if Democrats don't turn out, if they're disengaged, or they just have mixed feelings about Gavin Newsom, and they don't vote, then that's a problem for the governor. And up until recently, polls have been showing that among all Californians,

he wins walking away. But among likely voters, the race narrows significantly to almost a dead heat. race narrows significantly to almost a dead heat. So how is Governor Newsom responding to the threat, which seems like a pretty real threat, of being recalled and replaced with a Republican? The governor has framed the recall pretty relentlessly as a power grab by far-right extremist Republicans, by Trump Republicans, who are hoping to install a governor in a blue state that they could never win on the Farran Square.

And he's saying to Californians, you know, this state is successful. We're the world's fifth largest economy. You know, we do pretty well here. We got through the pandemic better than a lot of places. And, you know, if you want to know what Republican governance looks like, look no further than Florida. Do you want to be Florida with condominiums collapsing on the beach because of lax regulation and raging COVID rates and local school districts and local governments trying desperately to protect kids? I mean, is that what you want? And Republicans are saying, darn right, that is what we want. Florida's not so bad. Their schools stayed open when our schools were closed because you're so close to teachers unions. And their businesses stayed open when our businesses struggled. And so, yeah, Florida, yeah, let's be Florida.

Speaking of states outside of California, what are politicians on the national level thinking and saying about this race? So on the Republican side, they want to frame this race as a referendum on democratic policies. California is the biggest democratic-run state in the country,

and it has, you know, for a long time kind of been the model of liberal governance. So California has sought to prove the argument for a long time that you can have liberal policies and progressive taxation, and you can still have a really wildly booming economy. So Republicans want to frame the race as a referendum on that, kind of highlighting the parts of California that aren't working so well right now, things like housing costs and homelessness and crime rates and so on. On the Democratic side, they want to show this race to be an example of how Republicans nationally are, for lack of a better word, trying to game the system, trying to use unorthodox and maybe, you know, not quite legitimate policies to win elections and to get power that they otherwise

wouldn't get from voters, naturally. But just from a standpoint also of pure kind of political math, the Senate is deadlocked 50-50. And California's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, 50-50. And California's senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, there has been talk that she might retire early before her term ends. She's aging. And if she were to retire or, God forbid, pass away, then her replacement would be named by the next governor. And so there's a sense within the Democratic Party that there's more riding on this than just Gavin Newsom's personal political fortunes. Sean, thanks so much. My pleasure, Kevin. We'll be right back.

Here's what else you need to know today. On Sunday, the U.S. military said it had prevented a second attack on the Kabul airport by blowing up a vehicle filled with suicide bombers from ISIS-K, the same group that carried out last week's deadly bombing. The military said that the suicide bombers were headed to the airport when they were killed by a U.S. drone strike. The drone strike occurred as the remains of 13 U.S. service members killed in last week's suicide bombing were flown to the Dover Air Force Base in Delaware

in a solemn ceremony witnessed by President Biden. And... Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana on Sunday as a powerful Category Four storm, with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour, that threatened the cities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge. This is a major, major storm that's going to test us in ways that we've not been tested before. Ida struck Louisiana on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. That storm ultimately killed more than 1,800 people and devastated New Orleans.

Today's episode was produced by Sidney Harper, Eric Krupke, Austin Mitchell, and Daniel Guimet, with help from Diana Nguyen. It was edited by Mark George, Lisa Chow, and M.J. Davis-Lynn, contains original music by Dan Powell, and was engineered by Marion Lozano. That's it for The Daily. I'm Michael Bilboro. See you tomorrow.