The Daily - The Trump Campaign’s Big Gamble
Episode Date: October 28, 2024The presidential campaign is in its final week and one thing remains true: the election is probably going to come down to a handful of voters in a swing states.Jessica Cheung, a producer for “The ...Daily,” and Jonathan Swan, a reporter covering politics for The Times, take us inside Donald Trump’s unorthodox campaign to win over those voters.Guest: Jessica Cheung, a senior producer of “The Daily.”Jonathan Swan, a reporter covering politics and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign for The New York Times.Background reading: In Arizona, many Latino families are divided about the 2024 election.The electorate has rarely seemed so evenly divided. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris and Trump tied at 48 to 48 percent.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily.
The presidential campaign is in its final week, and one thing still remains true.
The election is probably going to come down to just a handful of voters in a few swing
states.
Today, my colleagues Jessica Chung and Jonathan Swan take us inside Donald Trump's unorthodox
campaign to win over those voters.
It's Monday, October 28.
Prevailing wisdom in American politics
dictates that the ground game matters,
things like door knocking, phone banking,
and getting out the vote.
But in a race that looks as tight as the 2024
presidential election, the ground
game can be the difference between winning and losing.
The Harris campaign has been running a really traditional and extremely
well-funded ground operation.
It has paid staff members and armies of canvassers who are all focused on
turning out every single voter they can find.
The Trump campaign, on the other hand, they've got a totally different approach.
First of all, they've got less money and less paid staff,
so it's a smaller ground operation.
Some of the get out the vote work
has been taken on by outside groups,
like Elon Musk's Super PAC.
And the actual field offices,
they're leaning a lot more heavily on volunteers.
To get a sense of what this effort looks like
inside one of those offices,
we sent daily producer Jessica Chung
to a key place in a key swing state,
Maricopa County, Arizona.
It's the most populous county in the state
where more than half of all of Arizona's voters live.
Trump won it in 2016,
and then Biden eeked out a victory there in 2020.
Here's Jess.
You wanna speak for Maricopa County Republican Party
is just southeast of Phoenix.
It sits on a quiet street
in an anonymous-looking office park
next to a tiling company.
I got there on a Tuesday afternoon.
Hi, you must be Craig.
Yes, how are you?
Hi, nice to meet you.
I'm Jess.
Craig Berland is the chair of the Maricopa County Republican Committee.
He's all the businessman staples.
Warm smile, tidy suit, wire-rimmed glasses, handshake firm, but not too firm.
Go upstairs?
Yes!
Okay.
Or maybe like a little tour, too.
Sure.
We go upstairs, and Craig starts to show me around.
Oh, so this is new.
This is pretty new.
Oh, where were you guys before?
We didn't have a place.
Oh, wow.
We basically bummed around.
The Maricopa Republicans just moved here in May, but they've really made this place their
own.
First of all, I don't know if you noticed when you walked in, but all the windows outside
are mirrored, and the American and Arizona flag are walked in, but all the windows outside are mirrored.
And the American and Arizona flag are mirrored in all the windows as you're walking in.
Once you get inside, this place might look like any random office space, were it not
for the decor, which is festively Trump.
A lot of it's Trump-related.
At the top of the steps, there's a life-size cardboard cutout of the former president with Melania.
In the lobby, there's a large screen TV with Trump giving a speech.
There's red balloons all over.
And there are portraits—Lincoln, Reagan, Frederick Douglass, and Trump.
And there's merch—tons of merch.
There's all kinds of t-shirts and hats.
Craig points to a glass conference room that's been repurposed to what he refers to as a
Trump store.
It's stuffed with racks of shirts.
And there are flags that say God, guns, and guts.
But there's also some men's rings and I think there's an $800 pair of golden tennis
shoes in there.
And I imagine the proceeds would go to the county office.
It helps us, yeah.
Right, exactly.
These days, Craig says he's here 50 hours a week, fundraising, planning events, and
helping to direct, according to him, more than a thousand volunteers who come here to
elect Republicans.
In this close election, Arizona is a big deal.
Polls show it could be very close again.
And just to remind you, when Biden won the state in 2020,
he won by less than 11,000 votes.
That was out of more than 3 million votes cast.
In a place like this, efforts to get voters to the polls
could be the difference between winning and losing.
And to understand what this office is doing, and its mission in these critical final days,
it's helpful to know the story of how Craig ended up here.
I grew up in Kansas, in a very small farming and oil country.
Craig was a small-town kid turned businessman.
He worked for General Motors, and eventually he moved his family to Arizona where he started an
aerospace company. Yeah I was like many Americans right your heads down you know
you got payroll to make you got new quotes to make you got product to ship.
Craig says he would vote Republican but that was pretty much the extent of his
political involvement until 2020. Well I didn't like what happened in the 2020 election.
I remember sitting there in our family room, switching from one station to the next, and
then getting my phone out and looking for the New York Times or somebody to see what
the counts of ballots were and what was left and mentally doing math.
— If you forgot, during the 2020 election,
Maricopa County was ground zero for an ugly fight
over alleged election fraud.
It started on election night.
— I can say that when we became very concerned
is when all of a sudden counting started shutting down
at many states, right?
You know, it was Atlanta and it was Detroit, and you're going,
that's never happened before.
What's going on?
Craig is referring to an allegation from 2020 that some battleground states where Donald Trump was ahead
decided to stop counting in order to prevent him from winning.
This idea took off on Facebook among his supporters, who were suspicious of the voting system.
For the record, this theory has been thoroughly debunked.
In Atlanta, counting was only paused briefly after a pipe burst on election day.
And election officials in other states said they never stopped counting votes, including,
as Craig alleged, in Detroit.
But for Craig, he wasn't buying it.
You know, we were all sitting there at night and we seen that the candidates that we thought
should win were winning.
And then in the middle of the night, the voting stopped.
And when it restarted again there was this shift and I guess because of my engineering
mind and the way I've been trained is that curve is not something that you see in nature.
It's not a natural curve.
Early results that night misleadingly suggested that Trump was bound for victory.
That could have been because Republican votes tend to dominate in rural areas, small towns where counting goes faster.
And during the pandemic in 2020, Democrats tended to cast far more mail-in
ballots, which get counted later.
Was it because at a certain point they started to count the mail-in ballots,
which lean more Democrat in certain counties?
Yeah.
Here in Arizona, we've had mail-in ballots for a long time.
I didn't perceive as that should have been the reason.
Neither Craig nor his wife trusted the explanations they were hearing.
We both thought that something was awfully wrong, and we thought we needed to be more
involved.
For Craig, more involvement first, joining We the People AZ Alliance, a far-right activist
group.
Then he joined the county party, and eventually he was elected chair of that party.
And to this day, do you still believe that Maricopa County actually went for Trump in
2020?
Despite, you know, many processes of verification,
including a Florida firm had done a hand recount and found that there was actually like 300
more votes for Biden than the previous count.
So I wonder where your beliefs are now.
That's a complicated question.
My intuition tells me that Trump won Arizona.
And do I have proof of that? No. But what I do have is I do have
proof that there was many, many, many, many ballots in Maricopa County that were counted
that shouldn't have been legally. So how do I have that proof? So here we go back.
The year before Craig became party chair, he helped lead a review of signatures on mail-in ballots in Maricopa County,
and is convinced that 10 percent of the mail-in ballots counted in 2020 should not have been.
And that's because he claims the signatures on those ballots did not adequately match those on file,
a claim experts say is based on incomplete signature history and a flawed methodology.
But it's still something he's very fixated on.
I'm telling you Craig's whole story
because as soon as you start talking to others
in the Maricopa County office,
you start to realize how many people there are
just like Craig.
I started volunteering after the 2020 election.
I wanted to find out why my vote didn't count.
I spent about two hours talking to volunteers who were phone banking.
I was completely apolitical.
I was new.
I had never volunteered in politics before.
Never.
And then it was after the 2020 election was stolen,
then it was like, okay, you've got to be more engaged.
And it was at that point that I decided
that I wanted my grandkids' votes to count.
People told me they believed Trump won in 2020,
the election was stolen,
and they were here to fix what they think is a broken system.
I like finding out what was happening.
This is my patriotic chore.
My purpose is to do my part to honor God and my country by being here to help do what I
can in Maricopa County.
I think we have a nickname for it.
It's actually Maricopa Corruption County.
Oh, Maricopa Corruption County. Oh, Merrick Corruption County.
Is that what people call it here?
Some people do.
Because there's a lot of that.
Volunteer after volunteer told me
that in the years since Trump lost the election,
they got involved.
Some signed up to work the midterm election.
A lot of them had volunteered for the mail-in battle review
that Craig helped lead in 2022. And based on everything they've done and seen, they've only grown more suspicious.
I was actually looking at the depth of the dot because you could tell if a dot had any
kind of weight to it.
The ovals being filled in absolutely perfect, like a dot matrix printer.
I wasn't told, hey, this is what we think, just here, do this.
And all the volunteers that I managed through the course of that project walked away with,
oh my fucking God.
All these ideas that the 2020 election was somehow stolen from Trump aren't new, of
course.
They're in the ether of Republican politics, all the way up to Trump himself.
That's true, even though they've been widely disproven, with scores of lawsuits over alleged
election fraud thrown out.
There's ample evidence that there was no widespread voter fraud in 2020.
Government officials, including Republicans, have assured people that election systems
are secure.
But it's important to understand, theories of a stolen election are why so many people
are here.
It's their motivation. And theories of a stolen election are why so many people are here.
It's their motivation.
How many hours have you devoted to volunteering this election season?
Probably around 35 hours a week.
I do at least four to six every day.
Four to six hours every day?
Yes, including Saturday.
I give about 50, between 50 and 60 hours a week.
Their beliefs in a stolen election aren't just driving them to spend all this time here.
They're affecting how they're spending that time here.
Today I'm late because I was walking neighborhoods, handing out golden tickets, which are...
And just to say, in this office, people are spending time doing the traditional things.
Calling voters, knocking on doors,
asking people how they're going to get to the polls.
They are doing those things.
But a traditional campaign would be leisure-focused on that.
And in this office, the attention is split, because Craig and his volunteers are doing
a lot of other things.
While we were walking around, Craig pointed out this one conference room.
We have some legal representations.
We kept an office there and there's war boards wrapped around the walls.
War boards?
War.
War boards.
What are war boards?
The military will say, we're going to go into the war room and prepare for whatever's
happening.
We picked it up as a war room, war board.
Yeah, it's just a, it's lying.
Yeah. Yeah.
Craig says in that room, among all the things they're doing,
they're spending time on what they call election integrity.
That has included training a huge number of volunteers
to observe polling places.
And in fact, Republicans say they have a record
number of poll watchers this election. As we keep walking, Craig points to another room.
We do have one person that takes care of our servers and our data. We're massive data.
We collect video, we're monitoring stuff. We get from the state the voter registration files.
And we keep those up to date.
And so we're monitoring those and doing comparisons.
Oh, wow.
So that's a huge hard drive you have.
Yeah, it's millions of records, not thousands.
Craig says all these computer server systems have been set up to store all types of records
and files related to election integrity.
We have a full-blown server room, right?
So we have big server banks
with very large servers in there,
recording video, recording of cameras
that are on 24 hours a day,
monitoring outside drop boxes all the time.
So we need to pull something up from last year.
We've got it.
need to pull something up from last year, we've got it.
Also among those records are voter registration files. Remember that mail-in ballot review
that Craig and some of these volunteers were a part of
when they went in and compared signatures
from ballots to voter registration files
to see if the signatures were a match?
The whole reason they came to believe that 10% of the mail-in ballots in 2020
should not have been counted. Well, this year, they have every intention to be in
those files again, asking volunteers, just regular citizens,
to scrutinize voter signatures and maybe even challenge them.
You can imagine all the ways that citizens looking for suspicious activity or
raising questions about signatures could affect this election.
Could delay things, perfectly valid votes could get challenged.
It could be chaotic, or it could add up to a big waste of their time.
There are lots of possibilities.
No matter how it goes, all this focus on what they consider election integrity
takes resources away from the traditional work of a campaign office.
Resources spent on efforts like this are resources not spent on getting out the vote.
You can also imagine that all the skepticism about elections could hurt voter outreach.
Do you worry by talking more about election integrity that it might actually create more
distrust?
That fire?
Yeah.
Well, that's an Achilles heel.
And you know, it's not without merit.
A lot of voters right now that didn't vote in 22 didn't vote because they did not trust
the election system to count their vote.
I said, well, why should I vote?
If there's going to be a cheat, why should I vote?
And it's difficult sometimes to really convince people that it's absolutely critical to vote.
It's difficult because they're encouraging people to vote at the exact same time they're
telling people their vote might not count.
So given these two things,
I asked Craig what he wants Republican voters to do.
And his advice is a little confusing.
Our message is, if you get a mail-in ballot,
the number one priority is, is vote it.
What we'd like to see you do is go in on election day,
turn in your, spoil your mail-in ballot and vote in person.
That's the best.
And you run through the tabulator and you're done.
But if you don't do that, then at least turn it in.
And we don't want you to turn it in late.
Just to be clear, Craig has been telling people to vote in person.
And if they can't do that, he wants them to take their mail-in ballot to the polls and use it as a guide to vote in person.
And if they can't do that, only as a last resort, mail it in.
Do you worry that that might actually confuse people or like a voter might say, that's
a lot of hoops to jump through, I don't want to think about it, I'm just not going to vote?
Well, yeah, the one thing we would leave them with is vote.
No matter what you do, vote.
That's the number one priority is vote.
You have to exercise your right to vote.
Before I left the Maricopa County Republican offices,
I asked Craig if all of this was
the right approach, or whether he wishes he didn't have to do any of this, that he could
just focus on getting votes out and winning.
Craig sees it differently, because he says he genuinely believes the election was stolen
last time, so to him, this is part of winning. They're doing exactly
what they should be doing. And the effort, he says, is huge.
After the break, my colleague Jonathan Swan makes sense of what we saw in Maricopa County
and explains how it fits into Trump's strategy to win the election.
We'll be right back.
Jonathan, hi.
Great to have you here.
Hi Rachel.
Thanks for having me. So, Jonathan, you cover Donald Trump's presidential campaign.
And my colleague, who is a Daily Producer, Jess Chung,
she went out to Trump's field office in Maricopa County in Arizona recently.
And what she found was this operation that,
at least on the surface, seemed a little bit scrambled.
There was, of course, the regular campaigning stuff.
There was the door knocking, the phone banking, all of that.
But then there was this whole other piece that was focused on election integrity.
And that felt like it was taking up a surprising amount of time and energy.
And in a lot of ways, it actually felt like the animating force behind why a lot of
volunteers had come out in the first place.
And so I guess my question for you is, what do you make of that and is that what the Trump
campaign field office is supposed to be focused on right now?
Well, this all flows from the top.
This is Donald Trump.
And let me just give you a little flavor of how he thinks about the race,
because I think it's really important to understand when you see something like this in Maricopa
County, it's not an accident. It's something that has flowed down from Donald Trump, and not just
over the last few months, but really over the last three and a half years. When Donald Trump talks about the election in private, something he often
says to his advisors is, don't worry about getting people to vote. I'll take care of
that. What you need to take care of is stopping Democrats from stealing the election, stopping
them from cheating.
The message Trump gave to his new chairman, Michael Watley from North Carolina was, your
mission number one, two and three is to quote unquote, stop the steal.
Trump didn't really want to hear about anything else.
So while it's true that his campaign is doing many traditional things, it's not that Trump
doesn't want them doing any of that, but the thing that animates
Trump most of all is this notion he has in his head, which I should say is completely
baseless. There is no evidence that Democrats stole the last election and Trump's team was
comprehensively defeated in court many, many times trying to prove his case. But what he
tells his team in private is, you need to
stop Democrats from cheating. I will take care of turning voters out.
But don't those two things kind of work against each other? Like when Jess went to Maricopa
County, she was hearing about how Trump supporters were feeling kind of deflated. Like why would
we bother voting in a rigged system? So this constant stop the steal, stop the steal,
does that have a depressing effect on turnout?
Well, it definitely could.
And there are a lot of Republican strategists
who felt that that's exactly what happened in the Georgia
runoff elections after the 2020 election, which
Republicans lost, which is Trump basically went to the state
and said, they stole the election.
Everything's rigged, et cetera, et cetera. Well state and said, they stole the election, everything's
rigged, etc., etc. Well, ergo, why would I bother voting if Democrats are just going
to steal it? Trump has kind of altered that message a little bit and he said, you know,
we need to go out in such large numbers that they can't possibly steal it from us.
What's that Trump slogan that's trying to thread the needle on this? Too big to rig?
Yeah. And I think swamp the vote is the other one.
Basically the idea is we need to vote in such decisive numbers that it's too big for them
to steal.
I want to turn back to something you said earlier, which was that Trump basically told
his advisors, don't worry about the votes.
I will bring out the votes.
And that sort of suggests to me that he's actually not relying on these field offices,
like in Maricopa County, to get people out to the polls.
He thinks that he can drive them to the polls.
So what is his strategy to do that, to make it, as he put it, too big to rig?
I think what's sometimes hard for people to absorb when they think about Trump and his
campaign is Trump's own theory of the case, as he articulates it often privately and publicly,
is absurd.
Trump's theory of the case is if it's a quote unquote fair election, if there's no cheating,
I'll win everywhere.
I'll win New York.
I'll win California, you know, etc.
etc. He doesn't just say that publicly, he also says it privately. I have no idea what
he believes in his heart of hearts, but that's what he says. But then, so you have this like
fairly absurd theory of the case, if you can even call it that, and then overlaid on top of that is a sophisticated campaign operation,
which is running a smart and targeted campaign focused on a really small sliver of voters.
The undecideds.
Yeah. The campaign sees the electorate the way they've modeled it right now, that there's
only about 5% of voters that they think remain truly undecided and a couple, maybe a couple of extra percent of voters that maybe soft
Kamala supporters that they see as moveable. They're 59% male, they're young, about half
are under the age of 45. And these are not political people.
They're heavily independent and they're more pessimistic about the economy than the electorate
writ large.
And they're more concerned about inflation.
And everything they're doing from the campaign headquarters is targeted at turning out that
group.
How willing is Trump to take direction from his campaign?
In many cases, he is taking direction from his campaign.
He's traveling to where they say he needs to travel
and where their data tells him that he needs to travel.
And he's courting the exact same voters
that they've identified as these persuadable voters.
Good evening, everyone.
My name is Dana White.
I am the president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
You know, he's formed this really vital partnership
with the UFC, the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
His friend Dana White runs that.
Donald championed the UFC before it was popular,
before it grew into a successful business.
And I will always be grateful. So grateful.
Trump has this whole choreographed routine where he shows up to fights
with his own entrance song.
45 being ushered in by UFC CEO Dana White.
Donald Trump.
Crowd goes wild.
That's a media event in and of itself. CEO Dana White, Donald Trump. Crowd goes wild.
That's a media event in and of itself.
And they are happy to share this moment
with the former president Donald Trump here tonight.
And there's this whole world of podcasts
with these male comedians who are open to him.
Last time we had you on,
it was our biggest episode ever, obviously.
Seven million views in 24
hours. It was crushing, going viral. It did really hit. It was a big monster, wasn't it? Huge. And he
has these long conversations with them. One, two hour conversations. I feel like we we need you back
right now. Like we need you back in office. I feel like you're the only one right now that can really
fix the problems here and abroad. Well it's really nice that you say that I appreciate it.
He's talking to people like the Nelk Boys.
Today's guest is the 45th president of the United States of America.
And he's currently running for president on the Republican ticket.
People like Theo Vaughan.
Hello, everybody.
Welcome to Flaygrin.
We are sitting down with Mr. President.
Mr. President, thank you so much for being here.
Andrew Schultz, you know, there's a whole lot of them
that he does, and it's this sort of bro culture.
They talk about sports.
They talk about football.
They talk about golf.
And, you know, it's a non-political audience.
And Trump is really at home in those interviews.
Yeah, does Barron play sports or anything?
He does.
He plays golf and different sports, soccer, loves soccer, very good at soccer.
He's a good athlete, Barron.
Yeah.
When you listen to them, you know, he gets to basically just in this very
comfortable setting, just riff and joke and talk about a mixture of like personal family stuff with,
you know, how terrible Democrats are and how they're destroying the country.
She was considered the worst vice president in the history of our country.
So, you know, that's what he's been doing.
And it's been reaching really large audiences of these people that they need to turn out.
So even though Trump thinks that he's so popular, he doesn't really need to do
much to sweep the election if they're free and fair, as he said, he's still
mostly showing up and doing the things his campaign is directing him to do.
So look, you have this dichotomy where on one hand, Trump's campaign is very
data-driven, the podcasts, appearances that he's doing may look very sort of loose and rambling, etc.
But behind them is real data showing that this is where you need to be to reach these young men.
But on the other hand, Trump is running, to some extent, following his gut over the data, the very clear data that's
being presented to him by his campaign officials.
And the clearest example of that is immigration.
Donald Trump has been given data by his advisors.
This is both public and private data showing unequivocally that the economy is the most
important issue to the voters he needs to reach in inflation.
And Donald Trump disagrees.
He feels at a gut level that immigration and the border is the issue that motivates people more than any other issue.
And he believes that's why he won the election in 2016.
And so he's returning to that with his emphasis in this election.
As we rebuild our economy,
we will also restore our borders, if you don't mind.
And you sort of had this moment recently in Atlanta
where Trump, he turns his back to the crowd
and they play this video.
Open borders, deadly consequences.
Border crisis.
Record high crossings are putting a strain on cities across America.
This montage of just horrific crimes being committed by undocumented immigrants.
My 20-year-old daughter Kayla Hamilton was murdered in her own room.
Kayla's murderer was apprehended by border patrol, crossing illegally into the US.
And Trump turns around and he says...
And that's number one. That's number one.
Immigration is the number one issue.
That beats out the economy. That beats it all out to me.
It's not even close.
That beats it out. It's not even close.
And that's basically a public iteration
of a private conversation that Donald Trump has been having
with his advisors for weeks.
So it's not like he's not talking about the economy.
He's doing a ton of economy themed events at his advisors behest and he's doing economy
focused interviews.
So it's not that he's not talking about it, and certainly their paid advertising has been talking a lot about it, but there has been a disagreement between campaigns data and
Trump's gut, and Trump is going with his gut in terms of his emphasis of immigration.
It really feels like people are often overestimating Trump or underestimating Trump.
Either they think that he's some kind of marketing genius who knows exactly how to connect with people when he follows his gut or they
think he's like a delusional narcissist who only acts out of impulse or
self-interest. And when you look at this campaign, I feel like it might be hard to
tell whether you think that some of these tactics are genius or insane or
both. What do you make of it when you look at it?
Well, it's pretty hard to make any declarations about this until we see the election results.
And even after then, there's going to be, this always happens, the winning campaign,
everything they did was genius, and then the losing campaign are just a bunch of idiots.
And the truth is that neither is necessarily true.
But I think the campaign and Trump have made some pretty significant
bets in this election and those bets will either prove to be really smart or fatally
flawed.
What I will say is that the bets they've made, in some cases are bets of necessity.
I'll just give you one example.
They have made a huge bet that they will turn out people who don't usually
vote.
That will either be a spectacular success or these people who like Trump or lean towards
Trump may not bother to vote or they may not have the ground operation that is effective
enough to get those people to the polls.
That's a bet, but I'm not sure what else they could do.
It's not like you'd send Donald Trump around to go to a bunch of
Whole Foods in, you know, North Arlington and talk to all the
mums there and say, hey, you know, I'm going to be your protector.
You know, as he's been saying, I'd be the protector of women.
And it's, you know, I don't know how much room Donald Trump has to
move with suburban women, for example.
So yes, it's a bet, it's a gamble, but they're working with what they've got. The candidate
is the candidate they've got. It's not like the views about Donald Trump are hugely malleable
at this point. They're just going where they're fishing where the fish are and we'll see,
maybe they didn't have the infrastructure in place to
pull this off. But I think based on the electorate as it is, it's pretty hard to argue with their
strategy I would say.
You know, this whole conversation and looking at the difference between the Harris campaign
and the Trump campaign, you've got this one traditional well-funded, well-oiled machine
and this other one that looks very non-traditional. And it's such an incredibly close race.
And as you said, we're not going to really know much about what worked and what didn't
work until after the election.
So it just keeps reminding me of that great quote from the screenwriter William Goldman,
nobody knows anything.
And he's talking about the movie business and he's saying nobody really knows what's
going to work, how to pick a hit.
But I keep thinking about that quote on this campaign.
Does anybody actually know what will win this election? what's going to work, how to pick a hit. But I keep thinking about that quote on this campaign.
Does anybody actually know what will win this election?
I mean, the short answer is no.
I mean, you talk to anyone on either side and they will tell you the data indicate this
is as close a presidential election as they've ever seen, a true jump ball election.
And it's going to be decided if the data is correct, maybe we're seeing,
we'll have another polling error, like we have the last two times Trump's been on
the ballot, but if the data are correct, you know, you're going to have, again,
these States decided by potentially tens of thousands of votes.
And when that's the case, any factor, you could pick out any factor as decisive.
When you're talking about these kind of tiny wafer-thin margins, anything could end up
being the decisive factor.
Jonathan, thank you very much.
Thanks for having me.
We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.
With only days left before the election, both candidates made their final push with voters
over the weekend.
Kamala Harris traveled to Houston for a rally on Friday, then went to Kalamazoo, Michigan
on Saturday, and finally to Philadelphia on Sunday, where she spent her time politicking throughout the city,
including visits to a church, a barbershop,
a bookstore, and a restaurant,
before taking the stage at a rally.
And we must not wake up the day after the election
and have any regrets about what we could have done
in these next nine days.
And giving a speech aimed at mobilizing supporters
in this final stretch.
So let's spend these next nine days knowing we did everything we could.
For his part, Donald Trump also traveled to Michigan and Pennsylvania for campaign events over the weekend,
but spent Sunday night in his hometown, New York City, where he hosted a rally at Madison Square Garden.
And I just want to say a very big hello to a special place, New York, and to an incredible
arena, Madison Square Garden.
Incredible.
Though he has no chance of winning the state, Trump is wagering that his appearance at the
rally —
I could be right now on the most beautiful beach in the world.
— and the attention it will receive.
I could be at Turnberry in Scotland, I own it.
I could be anywhere, I got that greatest.
I don't have to be here, but I would much rather be at Madison Square Garden with you.
Will be worth the detour from critical battleground states.
And Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran early Saturday, about three weeks after
Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel.
The latest strikes marked a new escalation between the two archrivals, although they
appeared designed to stop short of all-out war.
Israel avoided striking nuclear sites that the Biden administration had warned against
hitting and instead targeted military facilities. Saturday also marked the first time that Israel has acknowledged conducting a
military operation inside Iran.
Today's episode was produced by Jessica Chung, Claire Tannis-Ketter, and Diana Nguyen
with help from Nina Feldman. It was edited by Devon Taylor and Ben Calhoun
with help from Rachel Quester. Research Assistance by Susan Lee contains original music by Pat McCusker,
Alicia Bietope, Rowan Niemisto, Dan Powell, Diane Wong, and was engineered by
Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lansberg of Wonderly.
and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly.
That's it for the daily. I'm Rachel Abrams.
See you tomorrow.