The Daily - Three Undecided Voters, Two Swing States, One Big Decision

Episode Date: September 16, 2024

From the moment Donald Trump and Kamala Harris walked off the debate stage, both their campaigns have argued about who won the showdown.But the real question is what the debate meant to a small sliver of voters in a handful of swing states.Campbell Robertson, a reporter on The Times’s National desk, and Stella Tan, a producer on “The Daily,” speak to three undecided voters about what they saw during the debate, and how much closer it brought them to a decision.Guest: ​​Campbell Robertson, a reporter for the National desk at The New York Times, who has been tracking undecided voters in Pennsylvania.Stella Tan, an audio producer for “The Daily,” who spoke to an undecided voter in Wisconsin.Background reading: Voters said the vice president talked about a sweeping vision to fix the country’s most stubborn problems. But they wanted to hear more.“The Run-Up”: Here’s what undecided voters are thinking.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

Hey, it's Michael. Before we get started, a few details about a major developing story that's still being pieced together. The FBI is investigating what appears to be another attempted assassination of former President Trump, this time as he played golf at one of his clubs in West Palm Beach on Sunday afternoon. Trump, who was unharmed in the incident, was golfing at around 1.30 p.m. when, according to law enforcement, Secret Service agents spotted an armed man hiding in the bushes

surrounding the golf course. Agents then fired at the man, who fled the scene in a car but was later apprehended on a nearby highway. It was not immediately clear if the suspect had fired any shots. Police said they found a rifle with a scope near where the man was spotted, along with a camera and two backpacks. A law enforcement official identified the suspect as 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh of Hawaii. Last year, Routh told the Times that he had recently traveled to Ukraine as a volunteer fighter in the country's war against Russia. These are the key facts that we know for now. We'll be following developments over the next few hours and we'll bring them to you as soon as we can.

Okay, here's today's show. From the New York Times, I'm Michael Balbaro. This is The Daily. As everyone saw two nights ago, we had a monumental victory over comrade Kamala Harris in the presidential debate. From the moment that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris walked off the debate stage last week. You saw a president for all America and Kamala Harris. You saw the confidence, you saw the vision, you saw the poise. Both their campaigns and the wider political world have argued over who won during their showdown. What was her take on the debate Michael? She spanked that ass. Her whole strategy was to distract by mocking Donald Trump so she didn't have to talk about

her record or her policies. Whoever did debate prep for Donald Trump should be fired. But the real question is what their first and perhaps only debate meant to a small sliver of undecided voters and a handful of key swing states whose ballots could determine the outcome of the election. Today, my colleagues Campbell Robertson and Stella Tan speak to three such voters about what they saw during the debate and how much closer it's brought them to a decision. It's Monday, to a decision.

It's Monday, September 16th. Campbell, tell us about Bob and Sharon Reed and where they fit into this group of undecided American voters at this pretty late moment in the presidential race. So before I get to the reads to step back, the undecided vote at this stage of the race is pretty small. When I say small, I mean about 10% of voters told us in times polling that they're genuinely uncertain about whether they'll be voting for Trump or Harris. Some say it's even smaller, like 5%. Either way, it's not that many people. But in states like

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, they punch way above their weight because these states are so important and the margins are so narrow that how these voters make up their mind could swing the whole race. They're a pretty diverse group. They're older voters, younger voters, voters of color, white voters. They tend to be, by definition, pretty moderate on the issues. A lot of undecided voters, when you really start talking to them, you'll pick up pretty quickly that they're really actually not that undecided.

They might really know who they're going to vote for. They're just waiting to get the convincing case or they're just not plugged in at all. But Bob and Sharon Reed are truly undecided. I've been tracking them for months now as part of a project that the National Desk at the Times has undertaken to hear from undecided voters. And at every stage of the race, the Reeds have not been ready to say who they will vote for at all. They have serious reservations about both Trump,

first Biden, and now Harris. So just describe the Reeds for us, what we need to know about them to understand how it is that they remain undecided. So the Reeds are a lovely couple. They are both retired school teachers. I had 35.6 at high school, but then I taught 15 or 17 years of college.

She taught math. And I taught 32 years in the public school, and then I did 17 years at the college. She taught special education. They live on a small farm. Corn, hay, and alfalfa. Just say hay. Right. Just say hay.

In north central Pennsylvania, the single most important swing state in the country. They retired from school teaching a few years ago, so they're living on their pensions. And they said that inflation has hit them hard. Their fixed income has not kept up with inflation. So that is on their mind. And what would you describe their political leanings and past voting as being like? Have y'all always at the presidential level voted Republican?

Most times, yeah. Yes. So they're Republicans. In presidential elections, they have voted Republican pretty faithfully. They voted for Trump in 2016. They voted for him in 2020. But particularly, Sharon really thinks he has gone downhill since 2020. They think of him as unpredictable.

Even when he talks about policies they like, they don't think he'll carry him out. So I mean, if he's going to spend time going after, if he's going to be vindictive and go after his enemies or people that done him wrong, that worries me. In this year's Republican primary, she was so fed up with Trump that she voted for Nikki Haley. Bob grudgingly voted for Trump. But they've both told me they are totally open to voting for a Democrat, even though

they are Republicans and they prefer Republican policies. They voted for Josh Shapiro for governor, the moderate Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, and they like him so much that Sharon was a little worried he'd get picked as Harris' running mate and he'd have to leave Pennsylvania. So how do they think about this presidential debate heading into it last week? So given all their concerns about Trump, they really hoped that Harris was going to make it easy for them in the debate, that she would give a plan, she would give specifics, and even if they didn't agree with all of it, there would be enough of it that they agreed with that they

could look at each other and say, you know what, we're just going to vote for Harris. So they watched it very closely. And the minute it was over, I gave them a call. First of all, Bob, how was your birthday? Oh, good, I went swimming up in Canobles, then we went to Texas Roadhouse and went to see the movie Reagan. I liked it, I thought it was good. I thought it was fair.

It's Dennis Quaid, right? And as soon as we started talking about the debate, it was clear that the Reeds didn't get what they wanted out of it. I think she tried a couple of times to say, I want to do this and I want to do that. And that's nice promises. I hope she can get them through Congress.

But overall, I think they were still swiping at each other a lot. They really didn't think either candidate delivered a plan that met them where they are. What do you mean? Well, I thought Harris would come out with all these programs and I would like three quarters of them or something like that. And I thought maybe Trump would lay out some economic plans, but they didn't seem to come

out with any. Trump just seemed to attack and attack and Harris was trying to say I'm the stable person in the room Well, what did? either of them make of Some of the specific economic policies that both kansas talked about because they did talk about a few specific policies well Trump talked about tariffs tariffs and stuff. I sort of didn't like that

Trump talked about tariffs. Tariff and stuff, I sort of didn't like that. Because you put tariffs on, we all pay more. Bob thought, well, this is just going to make everything more expensive. So he wrote that off. Now, Harris mentioned her policies, and she mentioned three in particular, which were tax credits for home buyers, for people having children, and for people starting businesses. Doesn't help us. And both of the reads were like, well, that's not going to help us. for people having children and for people starting businesses.

Doesn't help us. And both of the Reeds were like, well, that's not going to help us. I'm not a first-time homebuyer. I'm not going to be bearing any children. None of that's going to help me at all. They're in their 70s, they're on a fixed income, and inflation's hurting them, and they didn't hear anything from her that would address those concerns specifically. How are you going to deal with rising costs? How are you going to deal with that?

And I didn't hear any answers from either one of them. So basically, they're hearing a bunch of, from Harris in particular, specific policies that are aimed at much younger people in the economy, just starting off in their kind of adult economic lives, and that's just not them. So basically, they're not hearing anything for themselves. You mentioned the economy, you didn't hear anything from anybody. That was reassuring. He talked about spending. But on virtually every other answer, Trump talked about immigration. Did you feel any progress in sort of understanding that or was it just kind of what you assumed it was? She didn't say what she would do and he was just slamming the Biden administration for letting them in. While the economy is their number one priority,

they've both brought up immigration as an issue that's important. And they both came away disappointed. You know, Trump killed that border bill. And he did it because he wanted it to be an issue in the election. Sharon does blame Trump for killing the border bill. When they questioned him on that, boy, he just kind of skirteded that but she didn't believe that Harris really had a plan to really get things under control In part because of what she saw is happening under the Biden administration

and he said he was going to go down and nationalize the National Guard and and Take these people and move out of the country and And that's really upsetting or upheaval for everybody. Bob has been turned off every time he's heard Trump talk about this plan to round up and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. You've been here 10 years, are the National Guard going to come to your house and load you up in a van and take you out

because you're not an American citizen? That doesn't seem realistic. He thinks it's a terrible idea and wouldn't work So here you have the reads on their two biggest issues not getting satisfying or sufficient Answers from either candidate on this debate stage. I'm curious What else Campbell struck you from what Bob and Sharon took from This debate. Well, I think their views of the candidates is most dark when you hear how they talk about the war in Ukraine

Hmm. I don't know. There's there's part of me that says I could see him giving you praying to Trump to Putin But he thinks he's so great Sharon is worried Trump is just gonna give Putin whatever he wants, that he'll cozy up to him, she doesn't like the way he talks about him. And I don't know if she can, she has the ability to, the diplomacy to end it, and has the respect of the people to do it.

But she's doubtful that Harris is gonna stand up to him, that she's gonna be tough enough when she's doubtful that Harris is going to stand up to him, that she's going to be tough enough when she's facing down some of these dictators. How much does the January 6th stuff play in your thinking about him? A lot. It was also striking how they reacted to January 6th. Anytime he's asked about it, he had no responsibility. Even at that debate, oh, I was just asked to give a speech.

The Reeds really don't like that. They have real concerns about January 6th and it just highlighted everything that turns them off Trump. Because you've described the Reeds as Republicans who have become disillusioned with Trump, I wonder what they made out of Harris's efforts in the debate to make some pretty overt gestures to Republicans who have soured on Trump. For example, she mentions that many prominent Republicans have backed her because they don't

like Trump. And does that mean anything to the reads as seemingly seemingly a target audience for that kind of message? I actually think that gets right to their dilemma. Well, I'm not surprised she's Cheney's support because, you know, Cheney hasn't liked Trump from the very beginning. They see these other Republicans as turned off by Trump as they are. That's not the issue. They don't like Trump and these other Republicans don't either. But that doesn't to them give them a case for Harris. So what I'm hearing is Trump's performance in this debate clearly feeds into their

discomfort with him, but it doesn't quite push them into the hands of Kamala Harris because they don't hear enough specifics and they don't know in their hearts yet that she's ready for the job. That and they're Republicans they prefer Republican policies and While they don't want to vote for Trump. It's gonna take more convincing for them to vote for a Democrat Right more convincing than the what we understand to be last Confrontation between them on a debate stage Which was really probably Harris's

best chance to win over the Reeds and Trump's best chance to alleviate some of their concerns. As far as we know, yeah. And at the end of that phone call, as I do after all the phone calls I've had within this summer, I asked them, did this move you one way or the other? I didn't hear anything tonight that would push us one way or another. Well, and they basically said no. You know, I am no farther to voting for either one of them than I was before. And Bob, are you still like 51% Trump? Yeah, yeah.

Not anymore, not 52, but just 51 or 50 and a half or something like that. Sharon is still completely undecided. She has no idea what she's going to do in November. And Bob is ever so slightly leaning toward Trump, but he doesn't love it. Listen, I've, I've, I've dragged you across these coals too often, too late at night. So I appreciate this again. Y'all have a great weekend and thanks again for all of it. I really do appreciate it. Thank you for making us sound good.

All right, thank y'all. Have a good one. You have a good one too. Bye. Well, Campbell, thank you very much. Thank you, Michael. Well, Campbell, thank you very much. Thank you, Michael. After the break, my colleague Stella Tan speaks to an undecided voter who says that the debate brought her much closer to a decision. We'll be right back. A few weeks ago on the show, we spoke to an undecided voter named Emily who lives in Dunn County, Wisconsin, a purple district in a crucial swing state.

She's 43 years old, works for a small business in Wisconsin's manufacturing sector, and is the mom of two teenage daughters. I voted since I was 18, since I've been able to vote. I've been able to come to a decision. This is honestly the first election where I just don't know who I'm going to vote for. I need to. I need to vote.

I don't want to. It makes me sick. It makes me sick. Like Bob and Sharon Reed, Emily is a long-time Republican voter A lot of my just values in general have aligned more with the Republicans. But right now, there's too many extremes. who found herself deeply dissatisfied with her choices in this election. You know, I have seriously thought about just writing in a candidate at this point too, because our options are not looking good.

So like Sharon, Emily voted for Nikki Haley, not Trump, during the Republican primary, even though by that point, Haley had dropped out of the race. I want to see people who are going to be willing to work with each other and back to let's take care of the middle class and let's stop fighting. And in July, with Trump as the Republican nominee and Joe Biden suddenly out of the race, we asked Emily if she was open to voting for Kamala Harris. I really don't know enough about her as a candidate for president to say one way or the other.

It'll be interesting to see how she performs in debates and things coming up to see if she can keep her composure. For her, the debate was going to be crucial. So when it was over, Daily producer Stella Tan called Emily back to see whether the debate had changed any of her thinking. [♪ music playing, no audio for the rest of the video. Phone ringing. Hello? Hello?

Is this Emily? Yes it is. How are you doing? Not too bad, how about you? I'm doing pretty good. You know, I really appreciate you talking to me again and letting me sort of show up on your metaphorical doorstep again.

So when we talked over the summer, it was right when Biden dropped out and Harris had just become the presumptive nominee, and you were still kind of getting oriented on her. And I'm wondering, right now, how close are you to making up your mind on who to vote for for president? I'm still, I am still struggling. I'm still kind of torn.

I mean, it is, it's kind of tricky. I do come from a pretty conservative family and this hasn't been easy for them either. I think they're struggling too with which way to go. It's like kind of coming down to what's, you know, do you compromise on some of your beliefs and some of your policy positions in order to help to preserve democracy and bring us back to some level of decorum and civility. And I think that's kind of gotten to be an issue.

And so what were the moments that most stood out for you from the debate? And what did they leave you thinking and feeling? So maybe like an overall impression, I guess, of the debate that actually left me very frustrated with former President Trump was just his overall decorum, his rhetoric. My 16-year-old daughter was watching with me. And a big thing that we came back to was the opening of the debate and the fact that he made a beeline for the podium rather than trying to meet in the middle and handshake and she had to initiate that. And then throughout the debate, I can't recall

a time when he actually made eye contact with her or looked at her. And then the way that he continued to refer to they, they, and that may have been part of his strategy is to continue to try to tie her to Biden. But in doing that without looking at her, without going in for that handshake, without actually addressing her, to me, it was very demeaning. So that really bothered me. And then the fact that, to be honest, for the majority of the dates, he looked like my daughters did when they were toddlers and they were not getting their own

way or they had gotten yelled at and were sitting and pouting in the corner. You know, a lot of people have been remarking on Harris's facial expressions and gestures in response to some of the things that Trump was saying. I'm curious how her expressions landed with you, especially in this context of you wanting a president who can work across the aisle and sort of lower the temperature on the rhetoric. For me, I guess some of it just kind of made me laugh. And honestly, it was just like, okay, she's making this face and I'm making the same face here at home. Like, what did she just say?

Like, how was this, you know, did that actually come out? And I didn't think it was over the top. I didn't think she was disrespectful in any way. So it didn't really sway me one way or the other. I wanted to ask you about a couple of things you mentioned to me when we had our conversation before. You mentioned that the economy was a big issue for you. Is that still true? And can you talk a little bit about how the

debate affected your thinking on how the candidates would approach economic issues? Yeah, no, definitely the economy is still a major issue for me. To be honest, I was really disappointed in both candidates. I was really hoping to hear something more. For me, Donald Trump, all he was talking about was tariffs, and that's not going to fix the economy in and of itself. And so there was nothing else there from him. And Kamala, while she did have her three points, you know, she was talking about small business,

she was talking about $25,000 for first time homeowners, $6,000 for families in the first year of life. And I'm sure there's people out there for that. That was wonderful. And they were happy to hear that. I, I'm a college educated woman, working class in my forties. I own a home and I have teenage children. So for me, this is all great. in my 40s, I own a home and I have teenage children.

So for me, this is all great. She's focusing on how to help people get started. How do you help all of the millions of Americans who are already small business owners? I work for a small business owner, for homeowners. In the last five to seven years, our homeowners insurance has basically doubled. So what are you gonna do for homeowners in the last five to seven years, our homeowners insurance has basically doubled. So what are you going to do for homeowners? How are you going to help us to continue to live in our homes, to maintain our homes? Those are the things I really would have liked to have seen from her last night and I didn't.

So there was one more thing. You mentioned reproductive rights in our conversation last time. Do you kind of lean toward one or the other on that issue? So, this is one of those, I think, too, where I kind of struggle because people want, they want to pigeonhole you into one view or the other. You know, if you're conservative, you view it this way, and if you're conservative, you view it this way, and if you're liberal, you view it this way. And I, when it comes to, you know, reproductive rights and specifically abortion, I do have very strong feelings

about the manner in which that should be utilized. I do consider myself pro-life, so more of a conservative. You know, I don't view that as a means of birth control, but I do also understand and can appreciate through different experiences, life experiences of my own. I can understand where this is not a black and white issue and there has to be room for that.

There has to be exceptions. There has to be places where this can happen. And so I'm still struggling personally with like, yes, I don't want to see it used in this way, but I don't want to see people being stuck in a position where they have no choices. And so, um, she kind of backed away from answering how she felt about late term abortion. And I was kind of wishing she would have talked about that, but by the same token, I was thoroughly disgusted by his comment.

You know, he kept calling it abortion after birth, but if a child is born, it's not abortion. Like it's just by definition. And so essentially you're talking about, you know, execution of children. And to me that was just so off the wall. And so, I mean, for him to continue spewing that is just sickening. I know you said earlier that you were still struggling, but did the debate help you make up your mind on who to vote for? Um, I Don't know if I'm comfortable like even like with myself to myself yet

I'm not sure that I'm comfortable saying yes or no to that one way or the other I'm not sure what I'm hoping to hear yet. You know, I don't know if there's something that I'm wanting to hear Whether it's right or wrong or makes any sense when you grow up certain way, whether you grow up liberal or you grow up conservative, I think it is hard for a lot of people. If that's what you've always been and that's what you've known and you've been very comfortable in that. I think there is just some level of uncomfortableness and I don't know if subconscious. If you feel like you're betraying what you are and where you've been, even though that's not true, people grow and people evolve.

And I wouldn't say that I would be changing necessarily my values or where I necessarily see things falling on policy. But it's coming down to more of a matter of let's restore some civility and decorum into the White House, the sanctity of the president of the United States, that office, what that means, what that stands for, and let's try to start bringing people back together. You know, one thing she said last night was let the divisiveness be on

the policy issues, not on all of this other unimportant stuff that we're trying to make into issues and that's essentially dividing us. Well, there's not a whole lot of time till the election. And I know you said that you're not quite sure what you're hoping to hear. But I'm wondering if it gets to be November 5th, what do you think you'll do? Do you think you'll go to the voting booth and make the call there? Or is there a chance you might stay home or? No, I definitely will might stay home or?

No, I definitely will not stay home. I definitely will vote. Or writing in, you know? Yeah. Yeah. No, I know we had talked about writing in a candidate. I think after last night, I would feel more comfortable making a decision versus writing someone in off the cuff. I would say that it definitely pushed me in one direction.

After watching him and listening to him and the attempts to find ways to continue to divide us in the way that he treated her last night And the way that he treated her last night, and the way that he treated the American public, it definitely pushed me to vote for Kamau. ["The Last Supper"] This was so interesting, Emily. I'm really, really grateful to you for talking to me.

Well, I thank you for your time. I appreciate it. Alright. Take care, Emily. You too. Have a good night. You too. Bye. Thanks. Bye-bye. Over the next 49 days, we'll keep in touch with Bob, Sharon, and Emily to learn who they Why? We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to nerday. The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes.

In an interview on Sunday with CNN, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, said that he stood by the debunked claims spread by he and Donald Trump that Haitian migrants in his state were eating people's pets. But it wasn't just a meme. If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that's what I'm going to do, Dana, because you guys— Moments later, on the same network,

the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, schooled advance for standing by those false claims. I mean, Dana, that was bonkers. Listen, the governor of Ohio, the mayor of that town in Ohio, has said this is all made up. These are all lies. There's no truth to it. And the United States Senator from Ohio just came on your show and blamed his own constituents for his own lies.

This guy's so pathetic, but... Today's episode was produced by Stella Tan, Luke Vanderpluek, Eric Krupke, Muge Zadie, and Nina Feldman, with help from Diana Nguyen. It was edited by Patricia Willens and Ben Calhoun, with help from MJ Davis Lin, contains original music by Marian Lozano, Alicia Baitube, and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lansferk of Wonderly. Special thanks to Megan Luded and Mary Sue. That's it for the daily.

I'm Michael Bobauro. See you tomorrow.