The Daily - Trump Shocks Europe

Episode Date: February 17, 2025

A few days ago, the Trump administration began blowing up America’s existing approach to ending the war in Europe by embracing Russia and snubbing Ukraine.The shift has quickly turned into a broader assault on America’s relationship with Europe.Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief of The Times, explains how it’s all adding up to a stunning victory for Vladimir V. Putin.Guest: Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief for The New York Times.Background reading: Analysis: Vladimir V. Putin’s call with President Trump reinforced the Russian leader’s view that Moscow and Washington should decide the fate of Ukraine.After being left out of Ukraine talks, Europe is racing to organize a response.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Photo: Tyler Hicks/The New York TimesUnlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams. This is The Daily. A few days ago, the Trump administration began blowing up America's existing approach to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine by embracing Russia and snubbing Ukraine. And that shift has quickly turned into a broader assault on America's relationship with Europe. Today, Moscow bureau chief Anton Tronofsky on how it's all adding up to a stunning victory for Vladimir Putin and a major setback for the once ironclad alliance between the US and Europe.

It's Monday, February 17th. So Anton, during the presidential campaign, Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine. And this past week, he has turned his attention to that conflict, but in a way that has been really scrambling the picture, not just for Ukraine, not just for Russia, but really for all of Europe. So tell us what that has looked like from your perspective. I mean, it's been a really extraordinary week when it comes to the Ukraine War, the transatlantic relationship, and us kind of all discovering what Trump's second term in office is really going to mean in terms of foreign policy, because it already feels so different from his first term.

The first hint that something was going to change came early last week when surprisingly the Russians released Mark Fogle, an American school teacher who had been in jail in Russia. To get him out, Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, actually flew to Moscow and then later brought him home on his plane. That was the first time that a senior American official had traveled to Russia since before the war. So that was the first thing that happened. Then on Wednesday, Trump speaks to Putin on the phone.

It was a 90 minute call according to the Russians. And just the mere fact of this call was really remarkable. It was the first time that we know of that an American president spoke to the Russian leader since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago. Right, because Biden's strategy was to isolate Putin both diplomatically and economically to put pressure on him. Yeah, exactly. It was about sanctions, it was about don't talk to Putin, show Russia that the fact that it launched Europe's biggest war of aggression since World War II was absolutely unacceptable

and made Moscow a capital that was just not to be dealt with diplomatically. In addition, it was all about showing a united Western front. The US under President Biden was very, very careful to coordinate all of its steps with the Europeans, just to show Putin that he wasn't going to be able to divide and conquer when dealing with the West. And Trump's call, which was clearly not pre-coordinated with America's allies broke that precedent as well. Tell me more about this call. What did they talk about?

I think you really have to read Trump's social media post about this call to really see how remarkable it was. Trump wrote that in this call, he and Putin both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II. And then Trump added that he and Putin had both agreed that they want to stop the war in Ukraine and that President Putin even used Trump's quote, very strong campaign motto of common sense. And Trump writes on social media after that call that he will then call President Volodymyr

Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader, to inform him of that conversation with Putin. So first he calls Putin and then he calls Zelensky to let him know how it went and what they discussed. Wow. So the message here from Trump is really, I'm going to sit down at the negotiating table, I'm going to make the decisions and then I will inform you, Ukraine, of what I've decided. Exactly. Which was yet another major departure from the Biden administration's approach. The Biden administration's philosophy that they repeated over and over was

nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. And here, Trump threw that completely out the window. And what did Zelensky have to say about all this? So he later said that he, in his call with Trump that same day on Wednesday, he told Trump that Putin was a liar, someone you couldn't trust, someone who did not actually want peace and someone who could deploy Russian troops beyond Ukraine. At the same time, Zelensky was saying publicly that a strong America, a strong Trump, could pressure Putin to make the kind of peace deal that Ukraine believes would be sustainable.

He really tried to put a positive spin on it, but I think it was pretty clear that just the speed with which Trump appeared to embrace making a deal with Putin to end the war really caught everyone off guard, including Ukraine. And that same day, Pete Hegseth, the new US defense secretary, gave a speech in Brussels. And what did Hegseth say in that speech? Well, good afternoon, friends. This is my first Ukraine defense contact group, and I'm honored to join all of you today. This was really Hec-Seth's debut in Europe as the head of the Pentagon. And he was speaking to NATO and European defense ministers in Brussels.

We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that a return to Ukraine's borders from before Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 was, quote, an unrealistic objective. A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again. That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. He also said it was unrealistic that Ukraine would join NATO.

And he said that there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine. If there were to be a peace deal, American troops would not be part of any peacekeeping mission to make sure Russia didn't invade again. President Trump looks forward to working together, to continuing this frank discussion amongst friends, and to achieve peace through strength together. Thank you. So, to step back for a second, all those things that Hegseth said were, you know, something that many people assumed behind closed doors. But it was just stunning to hear Hegseth make those concessions publicly before any kind

of negotiation with Putin actually took place. Already giving away the store. Exactly. Before you even got to talks. And so those concessions that Hexf made, that put Europe into an incredibly tough spot because how do you guarantee Ukraine's security and deter a renewed Russian invasion at some point down the road if the US isn't involved. Russia's military is huge compared to any European country. And obviously their nuclear arsenal is far greater than anything that Europe has.

So that speech really put into stark relief how much of a problem Europe was going to have in finding a way to face down Russia and Putin without the US at its back. How was all of this received, this call between Trump and Putin and the Hegseth speech? Well, I think it's fair to say that in Moscow, there was quite a bit of elation in response. The Russian stock market was up more than 5%. The ruble, the Russian currency strengthened. You had all these pro-Putin politicians posting on social media about how this was such a big win for Russia and it showed Putin's status as a brilliant foreign policy strategist.

In Europe, there was both shock and confusion. Pete Hegseth tried to walk back parts of his speech the next day. Trump said that Ukraine would be involved in the talks. On top of just the shock, you also just had people not really understanding what exactly the approach of the administration was going to be to Europe, to NATO, and to Russia and Ukraine. All of this was happening just before the Munich Security Conference. This big annual gathering of security officials started on Friday in Germany. JD Vance, the vice president, was scheduled to give a big speech.

So there was a lot of hope or at least expectation among Europeans that Vance, when he stepped up to that podium, was going to clarify where exactly the administration stood on these issues. We'll be right back. So Anton, you've just painted a picture for us of how America's allies are feeling really confused and concerned in this moment, and that there was some hope that the vice president would offer some clarity about Ukraine. Did that happen? It did not happen. And the fact that it didn't was really yet another stunning moment of last week.

Well, thank you. And thanks to all the gathered delegates and luminaries and media professionals. So, you know, Vance gives this speech at the Munich Security Conference. It's like this massive event, probably the most high profile security forum globally where you have tons of heads of state, prime ministers, defense ministers, foreign ministers in the audience. We're happy to be here and you know one of the things that I wanted to talk about today is of course our shared values. But instead of talking about Trump's foreign policy,

he launches into this extensive criticism of Europe. The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within. The retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America. You know, a Europe that in his telling has departed from its democratic roots. They intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest,

the moment they spot what they've judged to be, quote, hateful content. It's actually a picture of Europe that very much echoes what we've been hearing from Vladimir Putin over the last few years. You know, he's long been criticizing Europe for becoming too woke, for silencing speech. And I really do believe that allowing our citizens to speak their mind will make them stronger still. Which of course brings us back to Munich, where the organizers of this very conference have banned lawmakers representing populist parties on both the left and the right from participating in these conversations.

Now again, And you know, and even more remarkable was the fact that he was doing this in Germany with the big national German election less than two weeks away and where the German far right party is hoping to make big gains. And of course, the German far rightright party, the Alternative for Germany, has been very much ostracized across the political spectrum in Germany for its links to neo-Nazi ideology and its attempts to whitewash the Nazi past. If you're running in fear of your own voters,

there is nothing America can do for you. Nor for that matter is there... Basically, the vice president of the United States is saying to his European allies, longstanding European allies, that Russia isn't the problem here, you are. Exactly, and Vance here is signaling the possibility that America will no longer be that key ally of

Western Europe and the European Union that it was for all those decades after the end of World War II. We shouldn't be afraid of our people even when they express views that disagree with their leadership. Thank you all. Good luck to all of you. God bless you. And on top of that, we also learned during the Munich Security Conference last weekend

that the Trump administration does not expect Europe to be at the table when peace talks around Ukraine finally take place. We heard from Keith Kellogg, Trump's envoy to Ukraine say that the Trump administration expects Russia and Ukraine to be at the table. They expect the United States to act as a mediator, but that the Europeans probably won't be there. And it's worth pointing out that it would be pretty striking for Europe to be excluded like this. European countries have contributed more than $100 billion, by some counts more than the

US has in total, to Ukraine over the last three years. So they clearly have a huge stake in this too. Okay. Basically, it sounds like Europe's out, but Ukraine is in. Well, maybe. I mean, there's so much uncertainty right now. In fact, we're actually continuing to see signs that Ukraine's involvement is in question. Just this weekend, we learned that three top US officials, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of

State, Mike Waltz, the National Security Advisor, Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy, are all going to be in Saudi Arabia to meet with Russian officials about the war in Ukraine. For all we know, Ukraine won't be there. In that sense, it's not a surprise that when Volodymyr Zelensky was on Meet the Press on Sunday morning, he was insisting that Ukraine did need to be involved. Okay, but just ask a really basic question. How do you end a war in Ukraine without Ukraine at the table? Well, that's a great question.

It is true, Rachel, that the US is Ukraine's biggest ally. And Zelensky himself has said that if the US were to pull its aid, it would be very difficult for Ukraine to survive as an independent country. On the flip side, Putin has also made it very clear that he wants to be talking to the US. He sees Zelensky's government as a puppet of Washington. There is clearly space here for conversations between the US and Russia to happen. It would just be pretty shocking for those conversations to happen without Ukraine being a part of them. But the second issue is that even if Russia and the US were to make a deal here, you would still need Ukraine to agree to it.

You would need Ukraine to agree to stop fighting. And Zelensky has said very clearly that Ukraine will not accept a deal that they were not a part of in negotiating. The big question, if these negotiations get more serious, is going to be how do you thread the needle between Putin's demands and what Ukraine would need? Putin is demanding not just to keep the territory he already has, but he also wants influence over Ukraine. He wants Ukraine's military to be limited.

On the other hand, Zelensky and the Ukrainians are saying they need security guarantees. They need assurances that there will be a response if Putin were to try to invade again down the road. They need deterrence against Russia. And so how to thread the needle between those two things, that's clearly going to be really hard and that's what we'll be watching from here. So obviously we know what Zelensky thinks Ukraine wants and what Ukraine needs, but I'm curious about average Ukrainians. Do we know how they feel about the war and peace talks and all of this?

Well, we know from our colleagues in Ukraine that there's extremely deep skepticism across Ukraine that Putin can be seen as a good faith negotiator. At the same time, if you look at our colleagues reporting from Ukraine, you see there's intense fatigue with the war there. The war has lasted almost three years now, which would have been just so unimaginable if we think back to the beginning of 2022. Obviously, tens of thousands of Ukrainians, both soldiers and civilians have died.

And so what you've also been seeing over the last year or so in Ukraine is a higher readiness according to the polls to make some kind of compromise with Russia. Anton, I feel like it's worth taking a step back here and just reckoning with what a head-spinning week this has been. We've basically seen the United States embrace Russia over its long-standing allies.

Yeah. I mean, it's still early, but you're right. It really feels like a moment where that world order that we were all used to has started to crumble. Right. Most people listening to this show have grown up in a world where it's a given that the United States is aligned with Europe. Yeah. You know, there were clearly pretty major bumps along the way that we can remember,

but I struggle to remember a week like the one that we just saw where JD Vance, Pete Hegseth, and Donald Trump himself just shook the foundations of that transatlantic alliance so intensely. If you think back to Putin and the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine, in many ways, this is kind of what he wanted to achieve. Before Putin started his invasion, I don't know if you remember, he presented this ultimatum to the West saying NATO needed to withdraw from Eastern and Central Europe and really give Russia its European sphere of influence back. At the time, that seemed like a ludicrous demand.

The West dismissed it out of hand. But here we are three years later and really kind of talking about many of the things that Putin demanded. Look, make no mistake, the cost of all this to Russia has been just extraordinary. Maybe a hundred thousand or more Russians have died. Something like a million have fled the country. The economy has been stretched to its breaking point. Obviously, just the moral cost of having started Europe's biggest war of aggression since World

War II is hard to fathom. But if Putin, through these peace talks, is able to settle the war more or less on his terms, that'll be something he presents as a big victory. And an even bigger victory will be if, at the end of all this, he gets the US to walk away from Europe. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Sunday, lawyers for President Trump asked the Supreme Court to let him fire the head of a federal agency that safeguards whistleblowers and enforces certain ethics laws. The move is the first test of the White House's broader challenge to limits on presidential

authority and the ability of a president to fire the leaders of independent agencies that are meant to be insulated from politics. Today's episode was produced by Rob Zipko, Alex Stern, and Mujzadeh. It was edited by Maria Byrne and Patricia Willens, contains original music by Dan Powell and Pat McCusker, and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. Special thanks to Stephen Erlanger. That's it for The Daily. I'm Rachel Abrams. See you tomorrow.