The Dan Bongino Show - The Bongino Brief - November 19, 2022

Episode Date: November 19, 2022

Donald Trump makes it official - he's running for 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to the Bongino Brief. I'm Dan Bongino. All right, so it's on. He's running. I don't think that's exactly breaking news. I think everybody expected Donald Trump to run, but now it's official. And I got a couple points on this today. I want to go into it. I want to assure you, everyone, listen, I promise you sound analysis here. You know my personal feelings. I'm obviously a supporter of President Trump.

I've been honest about that for a while. But I want everyone to feel comfortable here going forward, that we're going to talk about it in a sound way where everybody who supports any candidate, you can be comfortable listening on the show. I want to give you the analysis you need. So without further ado, a brief interlude to hear from Donald Trump, who is running. Check it out. In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States. so as i said before i listen folks it's not i get a lot of emails from people and it's weird you know when i was a supporter of president trump people accuse you of not being a supporter

enough i still am by the way and then when you're you're you're you know a not as they perceive you as not being a supporter of president trump They want you not to be a support. This is one of those things, folks, you come to this show. I promise I am going to give you my personal opinion, but I'm going to judge this race reasonably like I did the last time. I promise you, you're going to have a home here. So don't worry about that. I don't want anyone to worry during this primary season.

Let me say a couple of things about the speech before we get into it. I got some highlights here. First, I was impressed. The speech was pretty buttoned up. It was issue oriented and was distraction free, which is what's going to be needed because this primary process, if Ron DeSantis gets in, you're going to have probably Mike Pompeo, maybe Chris Christie, and probably Larry Hogan too in the race and probably more, maybe more, maybe Tim Scott. I'm not sure where he stands. You know, you're going to have people who are going to have constituencies and are going to

make issues their thing. Kind of like Herman Cain, God rest his soul with a 999. And, you know, Stephen, when Forbes ran for office, Steve Forbes with the flat tax. And what they do is they can knock off constituencies that way, you know, ran Paul with the libertarians. So you got to be careful because you have to build some kind of plurality to get through the primaries. So you got to be careful and keep your speeches buttoned up and distraction free or other people are going to start to parcel off your voters. You get what I'm saying, folks? And remember, some of you out there, because I've heard this from a few people, a couple of people have said to me, well, Trump's inevitable because what's going to happen is let's say 10 people run. Let's just throw a number out there. Say it's 10. Sounds reasonable, right? Trump's going to have his loyal, say 30, 40% of the party, which is probably

around, right? Say low end 30%, just for the sake of numbers, right? You say, well, he's going to, if he gets 30% and the remaining nine, you know, split up 70% by simple math, he's probably going to win, but that's not the way primaries work, folks. The reason he's got to stay buttoned up like he did last night and keep the speech issues oriented, which I was impressed that he did, is because that's not the way primaries work at all. Come on, you all know this.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, pretty much everyone who's not a serious candidate drops out, i.e. Kamala Harris last time. If you don't win in Iowa, what happens, folks, is the money dries up. You may be on the ballot, but you're not in the race anymore. So I was really surprised. A lot of people I talked to seem to have forgotten how the primary process functions. So what's going to happen is after Iowa and New Hampshire, you're probably going to have only two or three serious candidates left. So the plurality game doesn't apply anymore.

So you've got to be careful. He kept the focus too in the speech on the real problem, which is liberalism, not just Biden. Liberalism in general. Obviously hit Biden, which is important. So let's get through it. I want to get to the highlights. But one more quick note. I want to reemphasize this folks. Again, I'm getting a lot of email.

Your feedback matters to me. I really enjoy it. I hope you enjoy me talking about your feedback because you matter. I like to hear what the audience is thinking. But again, it's strange. Some people accuse me being too much of a Trump fan and then others accuse me being disloyal to Trump, which is really bizarre. I'm not kidding in the same day. I'm going to, maybe I'll show you some of the emails without the names in there. You'll see what I mean. I'm not here to do that. I'm here to give you analysis you need. And one of the things I got is, listen, this primary is going to be a disaster for the Republican party. It's over. Forget it. DeSantis, Trump, they're going to eat each other alive. Everybody's going to hate each other. Forget it. We already lost,

burned down the entire party. Again, I'm going to say again, I don't know where you're getting that from. What are you basing that on? The last time Trump won the presidency was 2016 when he had a primary. The trouble in 2020 was when he didn't have a primary. I don't know what you're basing that on. Barack Obama won the presidency after a brutal, brutal brawl with Hillary Clinton, where her husband, Bill Clinton, was telling what Teddy Kennedy. Remember, Joe, talking about Obama, that guy used to get us coffee. That happened. Yeah. And he won. Yeah. George W. Bush had a brutal primary with McCain. He won. There is no evidence whatsoever.

Please don't fret. You should be, if you're a Trump supporter or a DeSantis supporter, you should be like, this is awesome. A brutal primary. You know why? It weeds out chumps. This is politics. You want cutesy time? Get a freaking dog.

I'm sorry. A lot of good candidates are going to run. The weak ones are going to get weeded out. The strong are going to survive. There is no evidence whatsoever that a brutal primaries hurts you in a presidential race. None. None. More in a minute, but first. You know, I went through a really rough experience with chemotherapy during cancer treatment. And one of the things that helped me get through it was ReliefBand. It's a product that works for me, worked for me well, and it worked for me quick, and it worked for me fast. I highly recommend it.

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You're going to see now a bevy of polls now that Trump's officially in. Trump to Santas, Trump Pompeo, Trump to Santas Pompeo, Trump, Hogan, Pompeo. You're going to see all these polls. Folks, just please ignore the polls. I think this last election was an indicator that they just are not accurate indicators of where the public is. They're just not. They're a waste of your time. Again, it's a scale that's reliably wrong.

It's not measuring your weight. It's just not. You can get on it all you want. Ignore them. Christopher Trimoli has a piece up in Washington Examiner. It's in my newsletter today. Can we finally stop listening to election pollsters? He goes through the history of how wrong they've been.

It's in my newsletter if you want to read it. It's bongino.com slash newsletter. And the premise of the piece is simple. Polls suck and they're typically wrong and we should just ignore them. You want the evidence And the premise of the piece is simple. Polls suck and they're typically wrong and we should just ignore them. You want the evidence, it's in the piece. I put it up there for you to see. You can read the whole thing.

But I cite this a lot and I don't put the headline up. Some of you may think I was kidding. Here's just more evidence, especially not should we just ignore polls, but with polls with regards to Trump, completely, totally ignore them. This was an article, look at the date, October 24, 2016. We're talking about just a couple weeks before the election in 2016, the presidential.

This is an actual piece by the Washington Post. I took a screenshot. I keep it forever. I'm going to frame it, I think. It's by Chris Silliza and Aaron Blake. Donald Trump's chances of winning are approaching zero. Now, think about how dumb it is to write an article like that. You're a couple of weeks out. No one's chances of winning are ever

zero. That's obvious. I mean, even in a D plus 50 district, there's still a chance. It's a small one, but it's a chance. This was a ridiculous piece to write. Well, it's not ridiculous when you're an activist and not an actual serious member of the media. When you're a serious media person, you don't write articles like that because you don't want to face plant later on. Just ignore the polls.