The Dan Bongino Show - The Bongino Brief - The Four Party System

Episode Date: November 11, 2023

The Democrats and the Republicans are split and they both have the opposite problem. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Another government shutdown is looming. You know what that could mean. More spending and a weakened dollar. Time to diversify into gold with the help of Birch Gold Group. When you open a gold IRA for every $10,000 you spend by December 22nd, Birch Gold will send you a free gold bar. Just text Dan to 989898 to receive a free info kit on gold and claim your eligibility before Black Friday to receive free gold bars on qualifying purchases. Text DAN to 989898. Performance may vary. Consult with your tax attorney or financial professional before making an investment decision. Message and data rates apply. Dan Bongino. Welcome to the Bongino Brief. I'm Dan Bongino.

So you may say, Dan, you seem awfully excited. I'm not. I'm just like I'm excited to do this show because I need to tamp down all the hysteria. Here's how quickly things change in a news cycle. You realize just what was it, three weeks ago, four weeks ago guys, we flipped a

Southern Republican, a Southern governor's seat to Republican and everybody was like, wow, this is great news. We're taking all these seats back. You don't even remember. Anyone in the chat remember what it was? We won back the Louisiana governor's seat just, what, a month ago? And everybody was all excited three weeks ago. We took it back from a Democrat. Everybody was stoked. And now, crap. Everybody was stoked. And now last night we won one of them, Mississippi, which we were, which, you know, it was an incumbent. So no big surprise. Tate Reeves, the Republican won reelection and we lost Kentucky, but we pretty much swept every other race in Kentucky. Even

though Andy Beshear is a communist, he's a good liar And the Democrat won in Kentucky. So two out of three, we got one flip, one hold and one hold for the Democrats. So was it a great night? No, we would have won all three. In a perfect world, we win Kentucky, we win Mississippi and we win Louisiana. Granted, a hundred percent. That's why it was not a good night. Period. However, two out of three, is it a catastrophe? I'm not so sure that's the case. Now, a lot of states did not work out that great for us. Virginia, but even Virginia, like the drama out of Virginia is ridiculous.

You realize we won every single seat in Virginia that Biden won by nine or up to nine points? Think about that. Biden won some of the seats we won in Virginia by seven, eight, nine points, and we flipped them. There was a redistricting of Virginia. This is conveniently left out of just about every conversation. All right, so we're going to lose a few House seats and maybe pick up one in the Senate. Oh my gosh, it was a catastrophe. It was a total wipeout in Virginia. Everybody jump off the bridge, get the cyanide pills. Virginia, everybody jump off the bridge. Get the cyanide pills. Did you even follow what's happening?

Joe, you and I know Virginia pretty well, correct? Yeah, pretty much. Sorry, I didn't even get to the Joe today. Welcome, Joe. Oh, no bell. Welcome, Dan. Yeah, sorry. Today, I'm just like. I know you're flying, dude.

You know what? Do you have a bell? Let's do the bell. Yeah, I got a bell here somewhere, dude. It's wonderful, wacky wednesday no matter what happened sorry and this is the first time you've been six minutes delayed but as you can tell i'm super stoked i'm gonna get to the virginia stuff in some more detail in a second but again there was a redistricting it was not a catastrophe and i want you to keep in mind

although i am an avid obviously an open trump Trump supporter, I respect a lot of these other candidates for running. And I'm glad Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia. A lot of people don't like Glenn Youngkin. A lot of the other candidates in the Republican field see Glenn Youngkin as a threat. You understand that? So the narrative out there that Glenn Youngkin destroyed Virginia last night is a narrative the Democrats want, but some Republicans want too, but it's not true because they don't want Youngkin to jump in the race. But it's not true what happened. More in a minute, but first. My relief band got me through chemotherapy. It was really easy to use. All you have to do is turn it on and turn it up however much you feel comfortable. I would have been lost without it.

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we got to learn to analyze data. Not you. Again, I don't want to sound condescending. I'm talking to the other maniacs out there. Twitter, total meltdown. Let's get to some of the takeaways because this is really important about what happened last night. Takeaway number one. This is the most important one. I need you to remember that. There are essentially two electorates out there on both sides. There are now four parties.

No, there are two, Dan. No, there aren't. Trust me. There are four. Not two. Four. No, there aren't. Trust me. There are four, not two, four. There are two electorates and these electorates have the opposite problem. Folks, write down what I'm about to tell you and highlight this and Guy, make this a clip because this is important.

Let's start with the Democrats first. The Democrats and the Republicans are split and they both have the opposite problem. The Democrats have a Joe Biden problem and not a brand problem. This is why I would not take any of what happened last night and transplant it to 2024. Could we get smoked in 2024? We could. After what happened in the midterms, I don't get excited about anything. And I'll tell you why when I get to the GOP. I vote, I advocate, I tell you to go out and vote. I did it yesterday. It's all I can do. The Democrats have a Biden problem. In other words,

a top of the ticket problem, but not a brand problem. How do I know that? Because Democrats turned out heavy in Kentucky, Virginia, even Mississippi, all over the country. They turned out in Indiana. They turned out in Ohio. Democrats turned up everywhere because the Democrat brand is shockingly still safe. Now, that's going to tie into my second takeaway about it not being bad enough yet. That's why the Democrat brand is still safe. It's just not bad enough yet. We saved the Democrats from their own brand. But I'll get to that coming up in a second. Hold that thought.

However, they are two parties right now, the Democrats. They're the national Democrats, which still, unbelievably, despite inflation, the border, wars, chaos, public safety crises everywhere, the Democrats' brand is shockingly still relatively solid. How? It's just not bad enough yet. However, party number two in the Democrat party is the Biden wing. The Biden wing is incredibly weak. It's probably right now, realistically, no more than 35% of Democrats. Nobody likes Joe Biden. That explains the disparity in the polls, how you can see a New York Times Siena poll with Donald Trump absolutely destroying Biden in any swing state, yet the Democrats still doing okay. thing. Yet the Democrats still doing okay. Now, other people in the primary will say, well, that's an argument to get rid of Trump because if it was anyone other than Biden, they won't win. You haven't heard my second part yet. You haven't heard my second part yet.

So stand fast. There are two electorates in two parties, a Biden electorate and the Democrats, and they are not the same thing anymore. A large chunk of Democrats who are loyal to the brand are not going to vote for Biden. Now let's get to the Republican side. There are two parties on the Republican side. That is now obvious. And they have the opposite problem.

The energy in the Republican Party right now, whether you love him or hate him, is behind Donald Trump. He's up by 30, 40, 50 points in the primary states for the thousandth time. I got into it again with another candidate supporter last night, just lying about everything. I am not against any of these other guys. I love primaries. Some of them are great conservatives. Fantastic. That's not my point. The point is it's not resonating. If it was, you would see it in the polls. Could there be an upset? There could. If Ron DeSantis wins Iowa, it could shake a lot of things up. However, it's not materializing in the polls right now. Does that mean it's permanent? No. Does that mean right now the polls are showing there's a Donald Trump party and a Republican party? Yes. But you see how they have the opposite problem? Whereas Biden is a drag on turnout for the Democrats whose brand is strong, the GOP brand is weak, especially after the Jim Jordan shenanigans, no one wants to vote for the GOP. And the only people

who are in the GOP with any passion right now are people voting for Trump. Well, I shouldn't, the DeSantis people are passionate too. I'm not knocking them. But what I'm getting at is the majority of the party, because Trump's way ahead in the primary, are with Trump. They don't really care about the Republican Party. I'm not telling you that's right. I'm not telling you it's wrong. I'm telling you what is. This is the reality show. You want the show?

You can listen to other people. You know what I'm saying is true. The GOP has a brand problem, not a headliner problem with Trump. And the Democrats have a headliner problem and not a brand problem. It's the exact opposite problem. There are four parties right now.

That is so obvious after last night. It's so, and I can prove it to you. I'll prove it to you again. You'll say, no way, Dan. That's not possible. Dan Cameron in Kentucky. Listen, again, I'm not knocking a guy. Dan Cameron, I think, was to you again. You'll say, no way, Dan. That's not possible. Dan Cameron in Kentucky. Listen, again, I'm not knocking a guy. Dan Cameron, I think, was a fine candidate, the Republican for governor.

A lot of people are doing, oh, Dan Cameron was Trump endorsed. Yeah, he was also Mitch McConnell endorsed. Mitch McConnell is the GOP brand, which is not popular. Not making excuses. What I just told you were facts. You can look it up. And Glenn Youngkin, let's be honest. He's done a great job in Virginia. I like him a lot. A lot, a lot. I think they did okay last night. Glenn Youngkin's career isn't over. He could run for Senate, likely win. He's at 58% approval. But Glenn Youngkin was not a huge Trump guy. Is that an understatement, fellas, or what? Definitely not a Trump guy. Not that the

Trump guy thing would have turned out any different last night, but it's clear a lot of Trump people are like, eh, I'm going to stick with my guy. I'm not telling you what's right. I'm telling you what is. That's takeaway number one. There are four parties right now, two electorates in each, and they both have the opposite problem. The second issue, folks in large swaths of the country, man, it's simply not bad enough yet. It's just not. How many times do I have to say this? I was so glad on Twitter last night, in between Twitter battles last night with fake tough guys and everything else. I'm sitting there last night and I'm all over, and people are like, it's the end of the world.

And a couple of folks, thankfully, you can go see it yourself, chimed in and they were like, Bongino was right. It's not bad enough yet. I've only said it for the last two years. Bongino was right. It's not bad enough yet. I've only said it for the last two years. Folks, there are pockets of the country where because it's bad by you, does not mean it's bad by them. I'll give you the perfect example. Connecticut last night was an absolute rout for the Republican Party. They got annihilated. Connecticut. Connecticut. Why? Folks, Connecticut still has pockets of money from people who left New York. It's not in great condition,

but it's not in absolutely awful condition. And the Democrat brand, because they love killing babies and stuff, is still strong. Folks, it was a wipeout. So many towns lost Republican leadership, county executive stuff. It was a mess in Connecticut. But where it is bad enough, the exact opposite happened.

Look what happened in New York. Let's go to the Lee Zeldin tweet. You can skip the John Solomon article. It basically says the GOP underperformed last night. I was going to put that in there, but you get it. It's in the newsletter. It says what I just told you. Here's Lee Zeldin, who, by the way, I think should run for RNC chair at this point. Almost took out the Democrat governor in New York in one of the deepest of blue states. Lee Zeldin used to be the congressman in Suffolk County, New York. Now, in case you think, oh, why do I give a shit about Suffolk County, New York? Ladies and gentlemen, I used to live there.

I know a whole lot about Suffolk County, New York. I don't know if you know this, but I was born in Queens, lived in Suffolk County until I was nine. And my father lived there most of his adult life until he moved to North Carolina. Suffolk County is what I would call the seventh borough. life until he moved to North Carolina. Suffolk County is what I would call the seventh borough. New York City has five boroughs, and then right next to it is Nassau County, which is huge, and then Suffolk County, which is also huge. Montauk, the Hamptons. Suffolk County, New York just elected its first Republican county executive in 20 years. Ladies and gentlemen, years. Ladies and gentlemen, the guy won by 15 points. Long Island, New York, which used to be Republican when I was growing up 20 years ago and won dramatically Democrat, is now run almost

completely by Republicans. New York Post, GOP takes control of Long Island with landslide victory in Suffolk County executive race. The GOP now occupies all the county-wide seats in Nassau and Suffolk counties, the county executive seats, the DA's office, the comptroller's office,

and all four congressional seats. Folks, I know this area. I worked there. This was my Secret Service office in Melville. The Democrats dominated Long Island for years. There's not a Democrat left standing

on Long Island. So again, before you like jumping off a bridge, oh my gosh, it was such a disaster. We lost the Kentucky governor's race. Yeah, we also swept every other down ballot race by near double digits. If not more, double digits.

Well, you can't get more than double digits, but I meant like more than 10. We crushed them. Here's another one. Tweet from a CUNY City University of New York professor. Fascinating race for the New York City Council in District 13 in the Boogie Down Bronx. I know the Bronx well too. You know why? That's where Paula grew up. Crime was front and center on the ballot. Sounds like it's bad enough. Well, what happened? A Republican challenger, Christy Marmorado, defeated Marjorie Velasquez, the Democrat. If successful, which she was, by the way, the GOP will have flipped the seat on the council. Ladies and gentlemen, this district 13 in the Bronx voted for Biden by 27 points.

I'm not, listen to me, I'm not asking you how to be upset about last night. It would have been nice to take back the Virginia State Senate. It would have been great to hold the house. It would have been great in a clean sweep of governorships and win Kentucky. We should have won Kentucky. Andy Beshear is a communist. He's just a good actor. But we didn't. But folks, it wasn't a wipeout across the country.

Where it was bad enough, things changed. It eventually will get bad enough. Will it get bad enough by 2024? Will everything will flip around and Trump will be on the ballot, which will bring out Trump voters who don't want to show up for other candidates? I wish they would. I don't know. But I'm going to give you a quick story here before I take a break. Joe, you know well. Folks, don't give up. Democrats never give up. I can't stand them. I revile them. I can't stand them. I can't stand the Democrats. But I watched a Republican. He's a terrible Republican, but he is a Republican. Larry Hogan. Win the governorship in deep blue Maryland twice.

I know neither me nor Joe like Larry Hogan, but he won. And kudos for winning. I'd rather have him than a Democrat. You think the Democrats gave up? Nope. The Democrats ran Wes Moore, who's a total scammer. And the guy won by almost like double digits. Because they never give up.

Don't give up. Last night was not a bloodbath. It was a bad night. A month ago was a good night. The Democrats love to kill babies. Does that mean we should acquiesce and be like, okay, we're all about killing babies right now so we can win a couple of... See, I ain't doing that.

You can do whatever you want. I ain't doing that. It's not bad enough yet, but it's getting there. The Dan Bongino Show. If you'd like to hear more, subscribe to the Dan Bongino Show, wherever you get your podcasts.