The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz - Local Hour: Playoffs For Dummies
Episode Date: September 24, 2025"He's actually doing a good job..." After the show had gripes with the way Mike discussed UM on Monday, Mike has gripes with the way the show discussed UM on Tuesday. So, it's Wednesday UM talk! Pl...us, the Marlins pulled off a miraculous extra-innings win last night and may have a real shot at the postseason. No, seriously. Jeremy is at the whiteboard, laying out ALL the potential tiebreaker scenarios for the Fish. Today's cast: Dan, Zaslow, Roy, Chris, Jeremy, Mike, and Tony. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Zaslow's come in here pissed off about ticket prices and what do you what are you waving your hands
at me about? I'm just trying to go have a good time, you know, and like I can't. For
WrestleMania, you're trying to go to WrestleMania. Mike Ryan, have you, did you say last year was
your last WrestleMania trip with the boys or are you still doing that? I feel like you retired a few
years ago, didn't you? No. No, I never retired from that. I won't be
making it out to Saudi Arabia in two years.
And I don't think I'll make it to Vegas this go-round, too,
because I'm disappointed that they're running it back.
But also, I know what Zaz is upset about,
and the price points this year are particularly egregious.
They're obscene.
But you've got to play the game with them.
They do this crap since TKO took over the company.
They get the suckers for a really high price.
You'll wait until the day before WrestleMania.
Then they all of a sudden release new tickets.
Yeah, that's what I did for SummerSlam.
worked out very well. The worst tickets, 400 level, are $900. The best tickets are $9,000.
Section A on the floor. That seems steep. What? I got to tell you it, like straight up. They
treat me very well. If you pay those prices, you're a sucker. You're a sucker. You're a sucker.
Who's fighting in this? They haven't even announced the car. You're a sucker if you pay those prices.
They give away a ton of tickets. The secondary market, check out Game Time promo code, Dan, is going to be so much
kinder to you. They're going to be trying to get rid of all these tickets moments before,
especially now when Las Vegas itself is in a recession, don't fall for this.
Can you imagine your family? You just want to get in the door so you're willing to sit in the
400 level. Agreedious, but they told you on a conference call. Vince McMahon priced tickets
so that families could come out. They don't care about your family to come out. They just want
to get the influencers out there and whoever and just help us make our money.
I hope Vince buys them back.
Do you? $900 for the cheapest of seats when you think of what WrestleMania is?
Like, those are, you can't see anything.
Nothing.
There's not, that is, you are much better off watching on television than you would be being in the 400 level in another galaxy
trying to watch like little tiny stick figures.
And when you're in the 400 level, you are watching it on television.
You're literally watching the screen the entire shit.
Now, I've never sat up there, but that's definitely what you're doing.
not just wrestling though that's every concert you go to
that's why nowadays like
I'm either spending to have a good seat
or at least concerts about
hearing the music at least you can hear
the music stand-up comedians
like if I'm in the upper deck I'm looking at the screen
I'm just watching them on TV
all these things you can't be doing stand-up
comedians that way that's silly
one person on a stage with a microphone
you can't be hugely far away
from that person I kind of get that what do you think people
do in the upper deck people are laughing
together they're experiencing something
and together, and I guess that's the appeal, but when you're in the 400 level for $900,
you better be experiencing an orgasm.
I saw Jerry Seinfeld at a Broward place that is like an old school place that didn't
have, like, it's like a theater hall, so there are seats far away, but they don't have a
screen.
So I watched it, and it might not have been Jerry Seinfeld.
I'm not convinced it was Jerry Seinfeld.
The experience that you guys are talking about when you say you want to experience something
together, all you'd be experiencing together is complaining to the person.
next to you that you can't see or hear
anything. Where did you
where does Samarrell get you tickets for the reality
comedy festival? Where do you get you tickets for that?
Is that upper deck or no?
This is the Dan Levitar show
with the Stucat's podcast.
Jeremy was supposed to be off
today but the Marlins have won seven
straight so he rushed into the office
to just compute playoff permutations
because the Marlins do have a mathematical chance if they win.
Yes, I know.
It's stunning, Tony.
Now, it's not a very good mathematical chance.
In fact, I say that this is really challenging to math.
I think it's going to be challenging.
Jeremy, they need a whole bunch of teams to keep losing,
and some of them are all playing each other.
So that's going to be problematic.
Like when you need the rest of the teams that are ahead of you
to lose all their games and they're playing against each other,
I haven't figured out how it is that they can get past.
those teams. But last night, they
win, they drag
the Rangers, ruin the Rangers season.
Then they go up last night to Philadelphia.
They're losing 3-0 in the eighth
inning, and they win an extra innings
against the team that can win the World Series, a team that's
good enough to win the World Series, although Bryce
Harper didn't play last night because the
Phillies are waiting for the postseason
to start. But
Mike was supposed to be off today,
and he rushed in because he was mad about
yesterday's first 20 minutes of the show.
He didn't like the way that we talked
about the Miami Hurricanes after Jeremy didn't like the way we talked about the Miami Hurricanes.
So let's begin with Mike Ryan's objections to what was said yesterday about the fact that
in retrospect now, the first three games of the hurricane season have been against opponents
who have now lost a combined six times in three games.
Right. Miami represents over 60% of those losses. Would you like Miami to lose these
games so you can feel better about the teams are playing?
You said Miami's offense isn't as good.
I would suggest that you need more offensive drives to look good.
Last year, Miami averaged about 15 offensive drives a game.
This season, they're averaging 11.
I reckon that if Miami has four more drives per game, you get more points.
And I guess it also helps with style points, too.
I don't know, I mean, Jeremy tied himself into a pretzel yesterday
by saying that Miami scored late to make that game look worse.
You know what made that game look bad? The stats. The score wasn't, I agree, the score wasn't
reflective of what that game was. It should have looked uglier. But instead, you got Miami taking
nine minutes to salt the game away on the drive. That's not stuff that happened last year.
You got tricked by Miami getting more plays into thinking that's what an offense is supposed to look
like. This team is playing complimentary football. They are forcing out their opponents three and
out top five in the nation type numbers. Their defense is better.
part because they're fresher because the offense is staying out there longer. So I do think that
yesterday required a little bit more context. However, you guys did kind of find it at the end,
which is we're a month into the season. And by your metrics, only Ohio State is good.
The thing that I have noticed because the metrics don't help me in what it is that I'm about to
say. I saw a team that I thought overwhelmed both Notre Dame and Florida. But I was scared for
Miami at the end of both of those games.
Like, we can say all we want about Miami dragged Florida, but Florida was literally
inches from being inside your 30-yard line in the middle of the fourth quarter with the
ability to take the lead with a touchdown when I didn't see them move the ball at all in
the first half.
And the results, those games being close, was legitimately confusing to me because it's not
like they were spitting up the ball the entire time, although Carson Beck did have a bad
turnover in the last game. I mean, bad turnovers. All turnovers are bad, right? But I think
Cormonie McLean made an exceptional play there. I mean, that's a youth thing. If you're nervous with
six minutes left in the third quarter because it's a one-score game against a rival with a really
good defense, Florida's probably going to be, I know they were missing some guys, but that's still
going to be the hardest defense that we probably play all season. That's a you thing. Miami controlled
all those games. Has Miami trailed at any point this season? You're saying that's a me thing, not a
you thing, the letter you, right? You're saying that to me. Because I think the you thing is
Mario Cristobald's going to be in close games all the time with the better team. What just
happened there to your microphones? I have a placid microphone. It's kind of screwed up. I didn't
want to call in engineering and bother them, but like it's kind of screwed up. I think,
well, I guess you should be encouraged because Miami has been tested there. I actually think
that Notre Dame is a good team. They played two teams with the top four strength of record.
That's another thing that you guys were talking about. Miami hasn't played anybody and they have the number
four strength of record in the country. So I don't know. You guys didn't make any sense.
So nobody's played anyone by that. It doesn't make any sense. Like, do you think Notre Dame has a good
offense? I don't think Notre Dame has a good defense. Okay, but that's not the question that I asked.
Do you think they have a good offense? I think they're fine at offense. Do you think, no,
no, they're scoring a lot of points. You think they're good at offense? Because you're not
going to answer because you know I'm tricking you, because Miami averages more yards per game than
them. I don't think that I know if Notre Dame is good or not, and I'm not going to know
all season because of what their schedule is. Their first two games of the season, they played
the two opponents that are the toughest and they lost to both of them because they couldn't
stop either one of them. And they stopped Miami more than I expected them to stop Miami,
given what I saw of the physical play in that game where I thought they were the lesser
team physically and I thought Miami should have beaten them by more. I don't think that the
Miami or Florida game should have been close late. I don't think so. The Florida game wasn't
close. It wasn't. Florida was within six points in a rivalry game with six minutes left. It wasn't
close. That game should have been 20 to zero. We all acknowledge that. Even the referees
acknowledge that to Mario Cristobal. If that game goes that way and is 20 to 0, then what are you talking
about? Mike, you can't tell me that the game was close when I'm looking at the stats and I see that
Miami absolutely destroyed this team. Mike, the scoreboard said 13-7 and Florida had a third and short
that ended up being a fourth and short that they missed by inches. Right, because they didn't actually
convert any third downs because that game wasn't actually closer. There was also cheating by the
referees. Keynes out a touchdown. They just decided no this doesn't count. Was last year's game
between Miami and Florida close?
No. No. Well, there's, you know what the spread difference between those two games were?
Five points. Miami was five points less dominant than they were last year?
No. But there was not a single moment in that game where there was any doubt.
Mike, you cannot. I think there was in that final. Actually, no, I remember Florida scoring a touchdown
on a interception return, by the way, which is, you know, kind of crazy. It's like nobody remembers
that came more through picks anymore. You can't say that the Florida Miami
game wasn't close. It wasn't. Look at the stats in the totality of the game. Look at the scoreboard
when Florida had the ball third and short with a touchdown to take the lead. No, no, yeah, they had
to score that touchdown. They scored one touchdown all game. That's fine if you want to get all
scared in the third quarter and doubt that Miami can respond with an answer. Why would I doubt
Cristobal in those spots? Why would I ever? I don't, look, you know what, like Mario
Chris ball isn't going to shut you the hell up until he wins the national. That is correct.
Correct. That is correct. That's cool. But I would say that yesterday's college football talk, as it pertains to Miami Hurricanes, it was just, you know, an embarrassment. But I don't go to you or Jeremy for ball. That's not what I do. I don't. You embarrass you. Because it was terrible. Yes, but your. I got reached out to by a dozen people. I listen back to it because like the names. All right, there's Mike and West Palm. There was filete. There was, hang on. Let me get all the menchies on X.
All right, it was closer to a half dozen, but I thought it was going to be really bad.
You said we got there at the end.
Yeah, because you realize, like, oh, this is dumb.
Ohio State is good.
They should have scored 54 points.
I mean, okay.
I don't know.
Like, oh, they had a chance to convert a fourth down, and then DJ Lagway was going to look three yards behind the line of scrimmage for his next target.
They controlled that game.
They controlled the Notre Dame game, too.
I wasn't very much one they controlled last year, too, the Georgia.
check game. Like they control a lot of games and then lose them late. They weren't. They were
trailer. No, they didn't actually. Forgive me two years ago when they were kneeling at the end or not
kneeling at the end is a terrible memory. Again, another reason why Mario Cristobal isn't
going to shut you up. There is a narrative and people have decided that what will get in Miami's
way is Mario Cristobal's game management. And that may very well be true. But over the last two seasons
now, well, one and a half. Last season, he was in a bunch of one score games. A bunch of one
games and every NFL time analytics person that I talked to said he made the right calls.
You have time analytics friends? Yeah, yeah. Well, I have friends that have friends. Yeah,
that he made the right calls in all those situations. He's not going to, people have made up their
mind. College football is a hard sport to follow all the games. He's earned it. It's not like,
it's like, it's not like we're just saying that as if it's not something we've seen throughout
his career, he's got to erase it. He's got to erase it just the same way that a lot of people
of that, who erase the narratives around them, like Ed Orgeron, like Les Miles, like
Dabo had to, like Clemson had to. And then when they do it, like Kirby had to. I remember
the narrative around Kirby. Then they shut you up and you don't remember all the crap that
you said and you just move on accepting it. And that's the only way that Mario Cristobal is going
to shut people up. And I concede that. He's got to win a six-nattie for this program. And that's
what he's working to do. Shouldn't it make you feel better though, Dan? Because yeah, those
Georgia Tech, you know, whoever in the last couple years, the games would be close and the
Keynes would blow it.
These games have been close so far, and the Keynes either held on or they would then
extend the lead like this week.
Shouldn't that make you feel better than it?
Here's the reason it doesn't, okay?
Those teams, when I was watching them, I wasn't saying they're appreciably better than
the other team that I'm watching.
They have played two games that should be close by rivalry, but when I watch
what I'm watching, I'm finding it inexplicable that the games are close. That Notre Dame game,
I don't understand how it was close late. That Florida game, I don't understand how it was close late
because I'm watching a better Miami team than the one that I have seen for four years. Well, thank you for
admitting that Miami is dominant in these games and controlling these games and putting them away.
I also think contextually there's been a monsoon at Hard Rock Stadium for a month straight.
And that also plays into these rivalry games that are also naturally,
tighter. Miami has played Notre Dame and Florida in these conditions, very slick. That first
half against Florida was extremely wet. They've had one turnover combined in both of those
games. Look, I was fighting through the weather conditions throughout that entire game. If I'm
fighting through those conditions, you can imagine what the hurricane's offense had to do to get through it.
That's where you sit now. That's where I sit for games now. I think that the way that the
hurricanes are built should help them be better in.
bad weather because they're physically, they look fit. Do you know how rare it is for a team in
college football? For me to watch a college football team play against an SEC team and say
that team is physically overwhelming an SEC team. That team is physically overwhelming a Notre
Dame team that I'm assuming is going to have good offensive line play and had a good pass rush
last year. I think you're just espousing the virtues of what this team is. Notre Dame is not appreciably
less talented than Miami.
And by the way, last year, you were probably
saying in September, Notre Dame is no good because
they lost to Northern Illinois, and then they
did what they did. So I would...
I'm not going to know whether Notre Dame's any good
until the playoffs come, and they throw them in
there because they've only lost the first two
games of the season, and then the rest of the schedule was
easy. Okay, so you've already established
the narrative. I just
think that we should probably have
some pause, apply the appropriate
context to this game, and actually compliment
Miami for salting games a way that they
struggled to salt away previously. They don't have this huge talent disparity against the
teams. Florida recruits at the same level than Miami does. Notre Dame is a national runner-up
last year. They're playing their style of football. They're keeping their defense fresh,
and this is how you win late in the season. Look, I didn't like Notre Dame being ranked at
0 and 2. I don't give a shit about these quality losses when you have zero wins. But
Notre Dame now being 1 and 2 and ranked 22nd, they're telling us.
us that Notre Dame is good. They're clearly saying Notre Dame's good if they could be
one and two and they're right. You know who else is telling us Notre Dame is good every week
despite when on Saturday they were actually 0 and 2 entering that game against Purdue,
Nick Saban, who is still pounding the table saying that that's going to be a playoff team.
And Nick Saban knows ball. Howdy folks, it's Mike Ryan and I know it's early in the NFL season,
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Don Lebertard.
Mike Ryan's in there, and he's the one with a baby. He's the one who's got to, like, worry about what the future is.
And Mike Ryan bet on Draft Kings, because Mike Ryan bet on us. This is the bet you're afraid of doubling down on.
Putting up a billboard in Edmonton. Stugats.
I care more about Matthew Kachuk than I do my daughter.
This is the Dan Leibatar show with the Stugats.
According to ESPN Analytics, which might not know all,
the Gators have roughly the same chance to lose out and finish 1 in 11 as they do to become bowl eligible.
Oh, yeah.
No, the one thing that Jeremy said was right was that that Florida record is not going to look good.
Oh, my God.
They have every reason to quit.
I think that that was their last stand, and they got a really impossible schedule.
But if Florida was playing a different schedule, they could be three and,
know with the talent that they have on defense.
It said South Florida loss that was the kill.
Like if that kid, if Gramatica misses, I can't believe we're still doing Gramatica.
If Gramatica misses that kick, you feel so different.
That was a really bad.
If you watch that, the Gators choked that away.
But here's one thing that I will tell you, knowing how Dan has spous of virtues of these
two programs down here that aren't part of the big three, UCF and USF.
If USF beat Miami, Dan and many other people would be rightfully claiming that U.S.
USF is the best team in the nation for what they have put together.
And then everyone just forgets that Miami beat that team so bad,
they knocked them from 18 to others receiving votes.
What's your deal with grammatica?
Oh, it's just, how many generations are we going to do this for?
Every generation needs a kicker.
How many are we going to do this?
We got one more after this.
If this guy has a kid and that kicker starts going up,
you're going to be 65 years old, 7 years old, he's going to be kicking.
And every single one of them has to play for USF?
That's right.
Hey, go to another school.
No, legacy.
What do you know about legacy?
I know plenty about legacy.
Where are your kids going to school?
We'll see.
I don't know.
Do you want them to go to a certain school you want to?
We're going to go to San Faye.
I would like them to go to University of Florida.
Okay.
So I'm done with the Zazlo Legacy of Florida.
Legacy over here.
Do what I couldn't.
I think that he liked them to go to the University of Florida, at least in part,
because radio doesn't allow you to afford the University of Miami.
Bingo.
That's true.
The University of Miami is expensive.
You could get better grades, too, and get actually paid for school.
Niko Gramatica, put it on the poll at Lebitardtard Show.
So is there going to be grammatica kicking footballs until the world ends in fire?
You mentioned Ed Orgeron earlier.
I want to ask the group here, before we go to Jeremy and play off baseball permutations,
I just want to ask the groups, if since we're speaking of gators,
if alligators could actually speak, would they sound like Ed Orgeron?
Do you imagine that if you heard an alligator yelling at you angrily,
or exhorting you, for example, at the golf course,
trying to summon patriotism for you.
Would it sound like this?
All right, all three.
Not in clear, now.
All right, proud, baby, here we go.
Three.
USA, USA, USA.
Lead us, Ed.
USA.
USA.
What is this?
What is he doing?
This is at the Ryder Cup, and this is getting the juices flowing.
That's what it's doing.
The best job in sports, the fired college football coach.
just doing side quests.
Like, where is Ed Orgeron today?
Oh, he's at the rider come.
And that's a practice round, firing people up.
That's a practice round that he's like,
all right now, here we go.
That's pretty good.
Thank you.
Why did there need to be coordination for USA chants?
Only three letters.
Yeah, there was quite the foreplay there.
All right, here we go now.
Does everybody have the right letters?
Chris is good.
It is funny.
First to you, then yes, then a day.
Don't dread on me.
When I recruited Joe Burrow,
Ed Orgeron, anybody who watched Ed Orsoran's career ascent from graduate assistant at the University of Miami who once got into a bar fight on Bourbon Street before a Sugar Bowl game because everybody did.
Because of course he did.
That's right.
Everybody did to see Ed Orgeron's assent and then watch at the end at LSU when he had the greatest college football team there has ever been.
And he-Recrued Joe Burrow.
And he won with it.
And then there are reports of boosters getting angry because Wildman Ed Orgeron is hitting on wives at the gas station.
And there are reports about a whole lot of malfeasance, including sexual misconduct throughout the program.
And he just gets sort of quietly bought out and says, yeah, thank you.
I'll take my money and go.
I'm out of here.
I'll just roam the earth partying and sounding like an alligator.
the plan. Famously, he tells
the story off and, which door would you like me to
walk out?
What was the buyout on Orgeron? Because
as punctuation, he's not going to do
better than, wait a minute, I get to coach
the greatest college football team there's ever
been, and then I could just leave.
And I'm always seeing at
Orgeron jogging shirtless
through South Beach. Like, he's just
running out there, red,
solid, thick.
So solid.
So it's solid, very solid.
He told us he drinks how many energy drinks a day?
Was it 11, 11 monster energy drinks a day?
So $17 million was his buyout, but he's had some issues with his marriage,
and now he owes his wife half of the buyout.
So a little bit more.
It's still nice.
You know what they love.
And in a divorce?
Then they really love it.
Okay.
Everybody loves money.
Everyone does.
Specifically.
Yeah, humans.
But in a divorce.
Specifically humans love money.
That's right.
When they're scorned, though, they really love it.
Humans?
I don't know about that.
Jeremy is in the other room, and let's check in on some playoff permutations here.
Oh, my God.
Dear God.
So we've got a situation where the Marlins have indeed won seven in a row.
Jeremy, how many games under 500 are they?
The Marlins currently sit three games under 500.
The Marlins are looking to go 5 and 0 the rest of the way to get to 82 and 80 overall,
which is how you can end up with some of these different permutations and a two-team tie.
I'm still working out the math over here for three-team ties,
but if you're interested, Dan, I can walk you through what it would take for the Marlins to ultimately clinch in a two-team tie scenario.
Who do they have the tiebreakers against?
What am I rooting for here?
I am thrilled that the Marlins are playing.
Well, you're rooting for everybody to lose, Dan.
The Marlins are playing.
Well, they play each other, though.
Some of these teams play each other.
Everyone can't lose.
The only teams that play each other at this point are the Cardinals and the Giants,
and we're already in good shape there.
Where now, if the Marlins go 5 and O,
they control their own destiny against the Giants.
They have a half-game lead against the Giants,
so you don't have to worry about them.
What you need from the Cardinals the rest of the way,
if you're looking for a Marlins head-to-head victory,
is at least one loss, either at the Giants tonight
or in their three-game series against the Cubs
because that would get them to 801 losses.
They're currently 78 and 80.
And ultimately, the Marlins and the Cardinals
split their head-to-head 3-3, as we all know.
Hold on.
The next tiebreaker is intra-division record.
Stop for a second.
No, no, yes, I'm going to interrupt you
because this is going to go fast
and there's going to be a lot of information here.
Do the Marlins have any chance
if they don't go 5-0, any chance?
Ultimately, yes.
They can go four and one here, but it will take a lot more help and losses all across the board.
So you'll need a couple of losses from the Cardinals.
You'll need the Reds presently would have to go two and three for the Marlins to win the head-to-head.
Obviously, that would turn into one and four.
Diamondback, same deal.
They need to go two and three.
That would have to turn into one and four.
And the Mets, most importantly, would need to lose the next two nights against the Cubs,
who have completely and utterly fallen apart in terms of winning as of late.
They hold the wild card spot.
There's not a ton of motivation for them.
But if the Cubs can beat the Mets just once and then the Marlins go in and sweep the Mets,
the Marlins will end up with a better head-to-head record against the Mets.
And ultimately, if they finish at 82 and 82 as the Marlins do,
the Marlins would clinch a post-season berth.
But what could end up happening in a three-team tie are several different scenarios.
Over here, you could see all of the different head-to-head records.
And ultimately, I'm doing the math here.
If the Marlins end up in a three-team tie with the New York Mets and one of these other ball clubs at an 82-and-82 record,
the Marlins will make the postseason, period.
If it's the Mets and another team, the Marlins will make the postseason so long as they go 5-0.
If they lose tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies, I can come back in tomorrow,
and we can go through the record if they go 4-0 the rest of the way.
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Don Lebertard.
It sounds to me like everybody could use a hug
because a hog is always the right size.
Stugats.
All I have put in my body today is three cups of coffee and an entire cup of honey.
Don't let him fool you.
He said in the break that he's jittery.
This is the Dan Levitar show with the Stugats.
just said in my ear, he's actually doing a good job, which is condescending, dismissive,
and sort of insult to you. And then he said the thing, though, that is actual compliment,
I understand this. And if you've reached this with, if you've reached Chris Cody with
playoff for dummies, you have done something, Jeremy, and your communication skills. He does not
enjoy his mathematics. And you have games. You got the last week of the
season, you've got games that matter. None of that. None of us had that. Nobody thought that
the Marlins would be three games under 500. I thought they'd be done by July. With the team
that they put together clipping. So many games back to be done July. Mons are 80 back. In terms of
just feeling like there's just no shot. I know technically they would be alive then. Come on,
says. The last week of the season, if I told
anybody that we would have games of any kind
that would matter, you would think all the teams in the league
somehow, even though this is a mathematical impossibility. All of them
were 80 games under 500. Have the Marlins had a top 10
season? No, not for like, of all the teams in baseball.
Oh, you don't mean like in the history of the majors. No.
It could be the Marlins top 10. As a surprise, yes. They're one
of the biggest surprises in the sport. Look, man,
in the middle of the season, they gave me
hope before it collapsed because they were beating good teams. That Texas team had expectations.
That Texas team was very good offensively and started, you know, the season poorly for a lot of
different reasons. But they just ruined Texas's season. I can't get any of you interested in
this except for Jerry. I am curious if this is like on MLB Network, are they talking about this
or is this just in South Florida? No way. No, they did. No, when the Marlins were winning games in
the middle of the season against the teams that they were playing. Yes, they were getting
attention from national people who haven't paid attention to the Marlins since they were in the
playoffs. What are you shaking your head about, Tony? What do you, what do you shaking your head know
about? I just don't find it believable that national people, we're a national show. We are
talking about the Marlins nationally all the time. There is no way that any other national show has
spent any time on the Marlins saying, you know what, Marlins, top 10 seasons here. Pardon my
take was talking about the Marlins? They talked about the fish? Yeah.
They were talking about the moment.
They're friends with some of their players.
They had a few of them on.
And they were just talking about that stretch that I'm talking about
where they gave us brief hope.
But honestly, it's been sort of sleepy for the last month
and the reason they're back in it is because they've won seven in a row.
But I wanted to talk collapses with you guys
because what is happening right now to the Detroit Tigers
is one of these memorable for all time collapses.
They were 10 and a half games up at the start of September.
and it can't be memorable for all time anymore because you have the wild card and people can't actually get knocked out of the playoffs when they've been as good for two seasons as the Detroit Tigers.
I mean, they're only one up in the wild card right now, the Tigers.
They may miss the whole thing.
They may miss the whole thing, but they were 10 and a half games up on the Guardians at the start of September.
And they've now lost, is it seven in a row or is it eight in a row that they've lost?
and that means they've lost two scubel cards.
And in losing the scubel start yesterday,
because your ace has to go out there and shut them down.
When you see the details on last night
where the guardians are bunting three times,
and the result is scubel box,
scubel wild pitch,
scubel hits on one of the bunts,
hits fry in the face,
and the best of all of them,
scubel flips the bowl.
over first base
with his back to first base on a bun
through his legs as they
collapse. Detroit Tiger fans
who finally have expectations
are now worried that
they're not going to be good enough to beat the Yankees
and as of 10 days ago
or as of eight
seven games ago, the Tigers
looked like they were good enough
to beat the Yankees this year
and now they no longer look that way.
I remember people talking about the Padres choking it up
a few years ago and I went
back and looked at that. They were 17 games over 500 at one point. And just my mind goes so all the
times that the Marlins, both Miami and Florida, have ruined the Mets seasons. And they had back-to-back
years in the early 2000s where they blew late season playoff spots. Well, that's the one I think of in
2007, right, where the Marlins closed Shea Stadium, right? They closed Shea Stadium by, and
Clavin gave up like eight runs in the first inning and the Marlins knocked the Mets out of the
playoffs when in mid-September, the Mets had the best record in baseball.
Do you guys think of all-time collapses outside of baseball?
Because when I think of all-time collapses and the Red Sox have been in a couple of them,
do you think of collapses outside of baseball?
I know we have the December collapses in football around here with the dolphins.
Yes, the 9-3 dolphins.
I think they went 9-3?
They were 9-2.
Oh, no, 9-2.
What was it?
Scott Mitchell was the quarterback?
Yeah, and they lost their last five games.
They miss the playoffs entirely.
Yeah.
But that's regionally.
When you think all-time historic collapses where you associate with a franchise, something
that is just end-of-season choking and you've got a representative sample, obviously, you've got
162 games in baseball.
So it allows the room for, it's ridiculous in a month for a team as good as the Tigers to blow
a 10-and-a-half game lead.
No, I think it's only a baseball thing because since it's every day, it's a slow death
for like the final two weeks of the season.
It's only a baseball thing.
But when you say slow death...
It's a soccer thing too.
When you say slow death, you're looking last night at...
It's not merely losing.
It's the way you lose.
You got your Cy Youngwin or someone who's been unhittable for two seasons.
Like that...
As soon as I saw Scoobel at the beginning of last season,
when I discovered him, I said to you and everybody else here,
I said, that's as unhittable a left-handed person as ever.
has ever thrown a baseball.
Like, I don't understand how anybody hits him, and very few people do.
For your ace twice to lose, like when that's the ace's job, the ace's job is you always stop that.
Like everyone, to lose that way, it's not just losing with your ace, but you're not, they're
bunting on you, and you're sitting there doing shit, like flipping it between your legs
with your back to first base and flipping it over the first base bag in a way.
Like Mark Burley?
Yeah, I mean, but, no, Mark Burley did it successfully, famously successfully.
scoble did it and everyone's like slapping their head in the tigers dug out and saying
oh my god our best player the player who is meant to stop this just made go ahead and give me
a more ridiculous mistake that can be made than flipping the ball through your legs in a panic
over first base go ahead give me i'll give you the rest of time to give me a more ridiculous
decision that someone can make on a baseball field then i'm going to have my back to first base
and i'm going to show you i'm going to long snap the ball into right field i just like the visual
one in the Tigers dug out
given one of these all at the
same time. Well, both David
Cohn when he was a Met and Chuck
Knoblock when he was a Yankee, both argued
calls with the first base umpire and allowed
base runners to just swipe bases
and then go home. That's pretty good.
That's a pretty good example. Jeremy is still
there working very hard
on this ridiculous board. Jeremy,
do you have an update for us? Has anything changed
since we checked in with you four minutes and
12 seconds ago? Yes. The
biggest update is that ultimately, if
there is a three-team tie at 82 and 80 for the Miami Marlins, they win five of those six
scenarios. So every single time that they tie with the New York Mets, whether that's the Diamondbacks,
the Reds, or the Cardinals at 82 and 80, the Marlins would ultimately come out the victor.
Thanks to their head-to-head record against Cincinnati, ultimately going four and three against
Cincinnati, they would also come out the victor in the Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds scenario,
because even though they would have the same head-to-head record against all three opponents at seven and six,
it ultimately flips back to the head-to-head record against one another amongst those two best teams.
The Marlins taking four out of seven against Cincinnati would get the victory there.
They also would have the best win percentage in a scenario where it's the Cardinals and the Reds in a three-team tie.
The only scenario in a three-team tie where they do not come out on top would be if it's a three-team tie at 82-and-80 with the Arizona Diamond
and the St. Louis Cardinals, despite the fact that all three went six and six against each other,
Arizona would have the best record against their own division and would ultimately advance.
So when you're looking, finally, at two-team ties or three-team ties.
The only scenarios if the Marlins went out in which they do not clinch the final wildcard
spot would be if the only other 82 and 80 team is the diamondbacks, the only other 82 and 80 team
as the Cardinals, or if both the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks are 82 and 80 with them.
In every other scenario, the Marlins would actually clinch the final wildcard spot.
You lost me.
In the other sports stand, it's hard to remember regular season collapses.
The Dolphins and the Vikings had one, but in the NFL, a collapse is kind of determined by what you do in the postseason.
For example, the Titans have had home field in the AFC three times.
every time they have the home field
as the number one seed, they lose in the divisional
round. Yeah, and there's no collapse in the NBA
regular season because the division just means nothing.
No, but the playoffs there is. Warriors
went 73 and 9 and lost
3-1, and we're up 3-1 and lost.
Mavericks lost to the
Baron Davis Warriors. Oh, we believe.
The last five years
in South Florida during the playoffs,
we have come dangerously
close to what would have been
sort of legacy eternal
pain through generations, the
heat almost blowing, or actually they blew the 3-0 lead and then won the series against the
Celtic and the Panthers blowing a 3-0 lead against Edmonton.
That is what I'm talking about beyond the regular season when I say, you only remember
a team's collapse.
Like that Golden State team, I was saying all season because of how they revolutionized
the sport, that's the best basketball team I've ever seen.
Hell, I could claim the undefeated Patriots collapsed at the end in a way that's memorable because I remember the failure more than I remember the success, even though their offense.
Go look at Tom Brady's numbers as soon as he got Randy Moss and how everything changed statistically for him in terms of quarterback rating.
He had 50 touchdowns that year, right?
He had, was it indeed 50?
I thought it was 48.
It was something absurd like that.
But he had a quarterback rating.
like Tom Brady's quarterback rating for his career was like high 80s or low 90s and that season it was about 130 Tony look that up for me 17 was his but he had 50 touchdowns eight picks and threw for 4800 yards the highest of his career until 2011 where he threw for 5200 well I wanted to ask you guys something that I was thinking about football related as I saw the stat that Jordan love you I don't know if you guys saw this you want to take a guess Jordan love average depth of target against Cleveland
Do you want to take a guess, anybody?
Average depth of target.
They usually stretch the field pretty well there in Green Bay.
I saw it, and it's pathetic.
Really?
1.9 yards on average depth of target.
Told you that Jaden Reed injury is a big one.
He was their go-to guy every time they needed to play.
And Christian Watson's another guy that stretches the field.
They have a lot of those guys that stretch the field over there.
Golden, in terms of separation.
That's the issue.
They have a lot of B-plus players.
They have no A player.
Well, that's why everybody thought that they were deep.
but then you take Reed and Watson out of the equation,
a lot less deep.
Like B plus is putting it nice.
B plus is nice.
B.
The thing that I wanted to ask you guys, though,
is with the changes in football that are obvious and overt,
have we basically eliminated the 400-yard passer?
I know Russell Wilson had that game against Dallas,
but unless you're trailing and just hurling the ball all over the place,
have we become so restricted about the turnover that basically you're not going to get a 300-yard game.
Never mind a 400-yard game.
You're not going to get a 300-yard game from your passer because everyone's being so conservative about turning the ball over
unless you're just slinging it at the end of the game because you're down multiple touchdowns.
Has this quietly gone away, right?
Cam Newton's career opened with a 400-yard game.
Is that going to be something that we even see anymore in that sport, given how?
how they're playing football and that that stat I just gave you on Jordan Love,
I could do it to a lot of quarterbacks.
They're not throwing the ball down the field the way that they used to.
And they're not completing it when they do.
Yeah, I don't think it has as much.
I understand that there is more of a premium on not turning the ball over.
I think NFL defenses have gotten better and have adjusted to the new rules.
Oh, I feel hydrated from all this football talk.
Did somebody say hydration?
Oh, dude. Talk to me.
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