The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz - PTFO - Confessions of a No. 1 Pick Gone Bust, with Alex Smith

Episode Date: September 26, 2024

The existential dread of going to work. The self-doubt born of 70,000 boos. The anxiety crank. The loneliness. There is no pressure quite like the expectations placed upon the top pick. And Alex Smith — 14-year NFL QB, ESPN analyst, and host of the new podcast Glue Guys — would know: He had one of the worst rookie seasons in football history. So Alex helps Pablo play armchair psychologist on the abject terror of being Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams, with lessons for every leader on how to own your vulnerability — and develop the next Patrick Mahomes. Even if the paparazzi aren't watching you stretch every morning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to Pablo Torre Finds Out. I am Pablo Torre, and today we're gonna find out what this sound is. You're alone. Nobody knows what that's like. Right after this ad. You're listening to Giraffe King's Network. How to Stop Losses Work on Kraken

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Go to kraken.com and see what crypto can be. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss. See kraken.com slash legal slash ca dash pru dash disclaimer for info on Kraken's undertaking to register in Canada. The club of number one overall picks. Do you remember actually your statistics from 2005 with the Niners? I cannot get the numbers one and eleven out of my head, which eleven obviously is the number that I wore for most of my career. But one touchdown, eleven interceptions is

just something that I will never forget. Third and seven and perhaps out of field goal range and less, down the middle, intercepted. Picked off by Cato June again. And June out to the 45 yard line as he has a twin picks against young Alex Smith. Your adjusted net yards per attempt, 1.11. It was that high. You had a positive adjusted net yards per attempt but your value approximately according to pro football reference and

this does not really happen very often for that rookie year in San Francisco number one overall pick was minus three. It had to be negative. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Like I was well below any average replacement. Okay, so negativity. I want to talk to you about negativity and also replacement. Because my old friend Alex Smith, the former number one overall pick in the 05 NFL draft, taken by the San Francisco 49ers, is intimately familiar with this concept. Alex would go on to have one of the most impressive 14-year careers in NFL history, in terms of not just on-field success, but also injuries overcome and players mentored, as we'll discuss.

He has been both the upstart and the incumbent, the guy and also the old guy that Patrick Mahomes, for instance, in Kansas City, would ultimately replace. But Alex Smith arrived in the league with the highest possible expectations, and he was horrible. Which is also how America has been describing Caleb Williams, the would-be rookie savior of the Bears and allegedly the next Patrick Mahomes, and also Bryce Young, the second-year savior for the Panthers, who lost his job last week and then had to watch his former backup cruise to Carolina's first win.

And also, it describes Trevor Lawrence at this point, selected first in 2021 by the Jaguars, who currently looks like he is in hell. All three quarterbacks, like Alex, are members of the number one overall pick club. All three, simultaneously struggling right now, are the story of this season thus far. What I wanted to find out today is the stuff that this club of would-be leaders cannot say publicly while they're going through it. What I wanted to find out is what it's really like when the NFL eats

its yuck. How did you deal Alex with the idea that maybe you were going to be a bust. I mean, honestly, I tried to pretend like it didn't bother me. I tried to pretend that I was tough enough, Pablo. You're a football player. You can just get through this on your own. I didn't talk about it. I just tried to present a strong, calm, cool, collected, because again, as the quarterback in the face, like you just said, I just tried to present a strong, calm, cool, collected, because again, as the quarterback and the face,

like you just said, the face of these organizations, like that's what you've been brought up in the football world to present, to strength. And I had never dealt with expectations like that in my life. Aaron Rodgers, why is Alex Smith the right guy to go number one? Well, no question, he was the guy.

And the delta between Alex Smith and the other quarterbacks to me. That's correct. Was significant. And I look at him and I see a polished college quarterback that projects well the National Football League. And as a number one pick, it's there. You know, I remember the cautionary tales

of the bus growing up. You know, listen, I grew up in San Diego. I very much remember Ryan Leith getting drafted, that draft with Peyton Manning. And it haunts you, it consumes you, Pablo. And it festered and it got worse and worse and worse to the point where, honestly, there probably wasn't a second of my day

that I didn't feel the weight of it. The notion of self-doubt. That wait a minute, maybe the story I tell myself about myself is not actually the story of my life. Yep. When you're in a locker room, when you're a person in the world seeing headlines and the TV is saying all this stuff, and now of course with the internet it's even more so,

can you give me a sense of, a glimpse into what that looked like? What you were hearing, what you were actually sort of trying to ignore. I had one college scholarship. Two and a half years earlier, I had one college scholarship and then, you know, jumped ahead two and a half years and I was the number one pick in the draft

and there was definitely a part of me, again, to the San Francisco 49ers, it's Joe Montana, Steve Young. And then to your point though, even embedded in that was this idea of the number one pick. And I mentioned Peyton Manning, cause he is like the poster child of the success story of the number one pick.

That's what every organization holds up as like, we hope that this is what it'll be. Huge imposter syndrome, Pablo. Like how long until they find out they made a mistake? Right? Like how long? Seriously questioned out they made a mistake, right? Like how long? Seriously questioned if I was good enough. Felt like I had to be perfect was probably the biggest thing that I became consumed with fear

to make like any mistake, any mistake. Like I just tried to be perfect. And so I walked around on eggshells. I took the field on eggshells. Just consumed with fear and self-doubt. And then again, my mind though, actually wasn't ever really even present. I completely like self-sabotaged.

I was in like Space Mountain, like wondering what they're gonna write about me in the paper. I'll never forget, you go through the combine, you're doing these visits, the draft comes, I find myself in the green room wearing this ridiculous suit. What the hell is happening? I remember this suit.

I couldn't even, what the hell is happening? Then all of a sudden the commissioner walks out and says my name first. You hold up the jersey, you take pics. All of a sudden I'm going to the airport. I'm flying across the country to San Francisco. I was in a mini camp a week later as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. Right? Like, you got to learn a playbook.

Again, I thought I was going to have this chance to like exhale and you don't. And I'll never forget that first mini camp. I line up in warm-up lines. Right? Like I've been doing this my whole career and I line up in warm-up lines. And I'm all the way over, just for everybody to visualize, I'm all the way over on the furthest side of the right so I'm the line closest to the sideline and There are fucking 90 reporters and photographers Pablo taking pictures of me watching me stretch man stretch

And I remember just like like claustrophobic if that makes any sense. Yes Just you'd overwhelmed me. I had never experienced that. I came from Utah, like I could walk around campus and not get recognized. And now like there's a f***ing hundred photographers and reporters like analyzing my calf stretch, you know, like whatever the hell, like it was ridiculous.

There is a, again, as always, a cruel poetry in the idea of you trying to stretch, loosen up. And of course, the opposite is happening. You are tensing up, you are coiling inside of yourself, and you're describing something that I always think about when I watch what I presume from afar to be the armchair psychological diagnosis of terror when I watch Bryce Young. And I'm thinking to myself, if I'm him, I'm waking up in the morning on a Sunday,

and I am fucking dreading Dreading going to work, and I'm curious if you felt that actually in those terms Sundays were just like miserable Pablo miserable and so when you play once a week You really live by like the day of the week and as as you got closer to Sunday, that like anxiety crank just cranked up tighter and tighter and it just came. So like on Monday you were even though you probably just got your ass kicked the day

before like there was like a sigh of relief because you're like, I don't have to take the field again. And then like Tuesday, it would just go and as you got to Thursday and Friday, that thing would just be cranking and Saturday's walkthrough, pregame walkthrough or travel. And then Sunday, pregame was when it was absolutely maxed out. Like I'll never forget sitting on my stool at my locker, you know, the hours leading up to kickoff. And I was actually not even at that stool, Pablo.

Like again, like just in outer space, my head just consumed with self doubt, like God, what if I throw an interception? What if I throw an incompletion? What if they start booing me in the stadium? I wanna jump in on that. The stadium, the crowd, hearing boos. I remember watching you,

and I remember hearing them chanting for your backup to play David Carr, right? Yeah 70 70,000 people chanting the backup's name. I mean, just what a person is left with as they are disassociating from their physical form and hearing a mass of people who are supposed to love you, by the way. What do you actually want in that moment more than anything? Oh, I want them to like me. I want validation, Pablo. All I wanted, and at the crux of all of this, is just to prove everybody that I was worth it.

Yeah. That I was worth the number one pick. And I want so badly to win for them. Yes. No. And I'm holding on so tight that like I've become my own worst enemy actually. You know, and I would look forward to your point like of the games. I so used to look forward own worst enemy, actually. You know, and I would look forward to your point, like, of the games.

I so used to look forward to away games, Pablo. I like, it was like, it was amazing. Like my rookie year, my first few years, like away games were up. I was like, oh yes, we're on the road. Which is f***ing insane as a quarterback. Backwards. Now you got to deal with crowd noise and 70,000 people cheering against, you know, like, literally making noise.

You can't even use a snap count. Like, that's insane to say in hindsight, like for me, because that's just not the way it should be. But I, I several years like that, like I looked forward to road trips. Right. I just, I felt like it, it eased the pressure just a little bit. And so when you watch Bryce Young in the present tense, a guy who has actually in real time been benched and replaced by a capable backup in Andy Dalton who just, by the way, became the

first guy all season to throw for three touchdowns and hit 300 yards. Yeah but like this is the idea like I heard this Dave Canales came out and said when he made this he's like hey well ultimately just kind of lands on my shoulders to be able to make the best decision for our group to give us our chance, our best chance to win this week. And it's like no s***. Andy gave you the best chance to win all last year. Like just like I should not have been playing my like that's not the f***ing point. Like Peyton Manning didn't give the Colts the best chance to win his rookie year. He threw 28 interceptions. He set an NFL record. Like that's not the point. That once you had committed yourself to that path,

this whole like baptism by fire, like, and then here in Carolina, you pull the rug out two weeks in. Which I have a lot of emotions on this whole thing, but like having watched Bryce's tape, and this is, it gets at the core of even what I went through. Yes. You can develop bad habits.

This idea that you're just going to play through dysfunction is not very sane, right? Like it's not logical. Like you go out there as a quarterback, you're so dependent on everything around you, not just the 10 guys in the huddle, but defense and special teams and just to have a chance to show what you can do. Right? Like that, that just gives you, that's just the starting line.

You can go out there and in the midst of this dysfunction, which is what the Panthers are dysfunctional, right? That you can develop bad habits. You can lose confidence. You can become rattled, right? The pressure and anxiety that certainly comes with the expectations of being the number one pick can consume you. And I felt like that's what I saw in Bryce this year.

And it so much reminded me of myself. And so actually maybe him getting to finally sit back and watch a guy like Andy, who by the way, this is a like pro bowl quarterback. He's taking his team to playoffs. Like this guy can play at a high level and he, he showed on Sunday, but maybe that actually is the best thing for Bryce, but that still doesn't let this organization off the hook for like what they did. Right. The lack of a plan, and this was really, I think what I felt like when I was going through it, you're alone. Nobody knows

what that's like. And the small world of like top pick quarterbacks. It is a small world. And I remember how alone I felt. And then watching Bryce, how bad I feel for him. And dude, what he's trying to do is so freaking hard. It's so hard, right? Like turn this organization around, play as a young rookie quarterback here. He's going, just heading into a second year. Like it is so hard.

And I think you lose sight of that sometimes when you're in it. There's a chill in the air, leaves are falling to the ground and the WNBA Playoffs are underway. This is what fall is all about and you can make each weekend even more exciting by getting into the action with my partners at DraftKings. And right now all new customers who bet $5 will instantly get $200 in bonus bets. So download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and sign up using my promo code PABLO. That is $200 in bonus bets instantly and personally, I'm eyeing the New York Liberty at minus 145 to win their series against the Las Vegas Aces. I just saw the Liberty beat the Atlanta Dream.

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So Bryce Young is on pace to break your record potentially in terms of just like coaches out, GMs out, the revolving door of dysfunction leading to a lack of consistency when it comes to who is, who is helping me actually. This is what's crazy. He's had three head coaches in a year, right? Multiple play callers. I think he's had three play callers in a year. We mentioned my, my rookie season, one of the worst rookie seasons in the history

of football. Easily. Agreed. Pablo, I played eight years for the Niners. Eight years. That's okay. The patients that they allowed me to grow through, I was not good for several years, not good. And the patience that they showed to let me grow and develop compared to what Bryce is going through, like this has never happened before.

We've never seen this lack of support for a number one overall pick. And a guy they traded up for. Well, that's the other thing. They didn't just walk into the number one pick, they traded up for this. Which. Well, that's the other thing. They didn't just walk into the number one pick. They traded up for this. Which is again, this is the other thing, right? The rumors now and again, man, if you're a number one overall pick

and you're hearing, okay, we believe in this guy, already you're thinking, well, are they believing in me publicly because they're trying to goose my trade value so they can charge someone else more because they're just lying now? I just imagine that you're living inside a hall of mirrors and every reflection of yourself looks f**king ugly. That's what I imagine Bryce Young's life right now. And you can't see out, you just can't even see the light of day, right?

Like there is no end of the tunnel. This season just started. Like he's... You know? I only pray that... You know, listen, two guys that were just in that building that they didn't think were good enough were Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Right.

And the Carolina Panthers organization said, nah, these guys aren't good enough. Meanwhile, you know, Baker Mayfield's kicking their ass in the division currently. Sam Darnold, he was good enough for Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O'Connell. He seems to be lighting up the scoreboard now, you know, like, Yep, Minnesota. This organization obviously is struggling to identify and keep talent. And that's an understatement, you know, Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore and Brian Burns all sent packing. These guys are franchise players that they've just like, it was like a yard sale sign, you know?

Well, discount shopping. When Andy Dalton gets in there and is revelatory to people on the outside who have been wondering, okay, is this a Bryce problem? Is this a Panthers problem? He's helping them, us, on the outside isolate the variable. It looks like Bryce, right, has great culpability when it comes to, okay okay if Andy can do it

Why can't you if you are Bryce though? What are you thinking as you're watching Andy Dalton immediately go in there? I Hope that Bryce was able to analyze and watch Andy operate Right like and there is no you could not put a value on the up-close front-row view To watch Andy prepare all week, right? In the meeting rooms with coaches, before and after meetings as he preps, in the weight room getting ready, how he deals with the receivers. There are a thousand things that Bryce will get an up close view to watch Andy do and Andy's been doing this for 14 years. OK, he is like the vast experience that he and knowledge that he has accumulated

that now Bryce will get to watch that. Right. And even though that it's still not a great situation, but watch Andy go out and play fast and get rid of the ball and continue to do the little things that added up to the first 300 yard, three touchdown performance of the season. And this was like what was so ridiculous last year, like this whole idea of like, Andy was sitting there all the last year. What was the rush?

Like why you traded up to get Bryce, why wouldn't you as an organization do everything in your power to ensure that when Bryce takes the field, he has the best chance of success? You have made this huge investment for your company, for your team, and you've literally just like sabotaged him. There is no plan in place to like, how are we gonna, big term vision, long term vision,

how are we gonna ensure success? And they're impatient and they just want to see the shiny new toy, right? And they know it puts butts in the seats and so they're like, let's just get them out there, right? And they know it puts butts in the seats, and so they're like, let's just get them out there, right? And they can't stay patient, they can't stick to their guns. And the problem is you have guys like Peyton and CJ Stroud, they'd mess it up for everyone.

Yes, yes, yes. Like CJ Stroud just had the greatest rookie season ever playing right away. And so probably the truth is, like there isn't one size fits all. Like that's just the truth. Like every situation that you walk into is different, right? Like the supports that are in place, how good's the team. So when you when you're factoring risk here, you've taken this this pick, let's play them early. Let's throw them out there and hope that they work their way through it. And let's hope they're CJ Stroud

and hope that they're Peyton Manning. let's hope they're CJ Stroud and hope that they're you know Peyton Manning and obviously we've seen how many times that's happened in history not many or you know we we let them sit and wait and watch again I don't think that I think that this the NFL is undervalued the veteran quarterback that there are guys out there that can still play winning football and let's let them be the bridge. Because if you throw them out there more often than not, they're going to have a negative war like I did.

It's going to be so bad. I hope, flipping again to this year, like at the Patriots, Chikobi Berset is a good quarterback. Let him go out and play. That team is not ready. Again, new head coach, lots of new things going on. Offensive line isn't very good. Like, let Chikobi go out there and play.

Let Drake May sit and watch. I hope that Draud Mayo can stay patient and stick to this plan. And if the losses mount, can still stay strong to this, I hope. It is a remarkable thing. You just don't hear many athletes, current or former, say, I wish I had been benched. The lack of a plan and vision and long-term vision

is so absurd when you think about how big, like these are billion dollar organizations. Multi-billion. They got David Tepper, who's this hedge fund, one of the best hedge fund managers of all time, right? This guy is really smart. And they've just absolutely, this now is, put this up on the wall is what not to do.

It's, it goes. Like you've got Peyton Manning on one hand and you got this one on the other. Yes, two different models for pain tolerance, for risk tolerance. Look, I want to zoom out actually on Carolina here because it's not just this one case study. The larger picture of starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season as of week one, it was 27.6. That's the average age of the NFL starting quarterback.

That's the youngest it has been since 1957, right? In 2017 it was over 30 years old. There were as many week one starters with only one to two years experience as with nine plus years of experience. Your sport, as much as we are decrying, this trend line is leaning ever more into throw them out there it seems Did we not just watch what Tom Brady was still able to do late in his career There's such power in the veteran quarterback and just in what they've seen Right like to go out and operate so much of playing quarterback is decision-making Right like beyond the physical attributes

It is it is these little incalculable unmeasurable little things that add up. And this is obviously to a much larger concept of kind of mentorship, but like you go look at Patrick's path, right? You go look at like Jordan Love's and Aaron Rodgers path. In all of those cases, could they have started earlier? Sure. Yeah, but that's because of you buddy buddy. Hold on. Let's not abstract

this. That's because you were ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Yes, but like my point, and it's hard when I was in it, right? Like, no, you don't want to get your replacement. You know, they draft your replacement and he's sitting there, right? Like, that's not like something you wish for in the moment. But from a football fan, if you were a Chiefs fan and you, or if you like, how about just an operational, you know, you look at like the brilliance of it from a big picture, like, yeah, like, hey, draft him. I was in my 13th year at that point. I had my career year by far.

I mean, I led the NFL in a couple of categories, like was in the MVP conversation by the end of the season. And the brilliance of the, again, Patrick got to see an up close view of it for an entire year, everything that I had accumulated, all the knowledge, the routine, like the operational playbook of playing quarterback, like Patrick got to up close view and was like, Hey, take what you want, take what works for you. And then send me on my way and oh yeah, get some draft picks in return.

Right. Like it's brilliant it's brilliant and then oh by the way Patrick's first like his first start the following season I think he threw six touchdowns like like you've just insured again you made you traded up to get him with the tenth pick you want to do everything in your power to ensure that that it works that he has a chance of success and that that's part of this. And like it just, it seems so obvious from the outside looking in and yet it's still so rare. Yeah, look, it was not lost on me as I was watching the Super Bowl this year. I'm watching Patrick Mahomes win his third Super Bowl, his third Super Bowl MVP, and he goes up to the podium behind this microphone, the biggest television show in America,

and he says, I want to thank Alex Smith. Yeah, I attribute a lot of my early success to Alex. I mean, the way he was able to be a pro every single day and the way he was able to go about not only being a great football player, but a great human being, it showed me a ton. I mean, I learned a lot about how to read coverages and blitzes from him. He gave me a blueprint of how to go about a week and preparing yourself. And it showed me how to have successages and blitzes from him. He gave me a blueprint of how to go about a week and preparing yourself. And it showed me how to have success at an early point in my career

that I don't think I would have got anywhere else. He credits you for doing the thing that you did not receive, which is, it seems, you helped him feel less alone. Pablo, the two quarterbacks, when I made my first start for the Niners, the two quarterbacks had a combined one start. start for the Niners, the two quarterbacks had a combined one start. The two other QBs in the room.

So there were three of us. One start. They were a second year and third year player who had one start. And I'll never forget after practice, sitting in the film room, watching film by myself and having no idea what I was doing. I put in the hours, Pablo, I was working hard. I was trying hard. Like I, you know, like I'd heard stories of, again,

Peyton and these guys that like just watched so much film and I'd be in there too watching film and had absolutely no idea what I was doing. Like no idea what I was looking at, what I should be looking at, how to do it, like none. And I just, I stumbled for years doing this and slowly learned as I went and made mistakes. But it was, like, again, it was five, six years

in the making, just inconsistency and crappy play and mistakes, and so, fast forward to Patrick again, I had been obviously an early pick, and here's Patrick, had been an early pick, and like I'm very well remembered what I went through. And again, that feeling of being alone and that, yeah, I didn't wish that on anyone. And again, Patrick and I hit it off like, you know, respect, respect, give respect, get respect and like he and I became best friends and yeah, as much as he was the guy that's going to take my job, but like you don't wish that on him, you know?

It makes me think though, that when you are an NFL team trying to copy, again, copycat what the best teams are doing, I get why the Bears went and got Caleb Williams with the number one overall pick. He is of course, you know, the most visually at least like Patrick among prospects that I can recall. Although there are some imitators also in college just for the record here also just trying to be like him. Couple.

A couple. A little startling, a little weird. Dylan Riola, just know that we see you and it's obvious. But Caleb Williams, you know, his thing in college was accuracy. That was like the one thing nobody ever, I mean, it was a bunch of things, but nobody ever questioned how precise he was on top of his ability to overextend plays, you know, which was fun more than anything. But now, okay, he goes from super accurate to inaccurate through three

weeks and I was wondering, is that, is that a nerves thing? Is that a feet thing? What do you diagnose when it comes to a number one overall pick who was struggling to do that? You could take his first start Pablo and just burn the tape. Like it's your first start. Mine was a blur. I, I, you hope to get through it and forget it.

You know, somehow they won that football game, which great. I think there's good player in there. Like he's got it and then he's showing glimpses. And I think you just got to continue to give him time. There's been no running game to speak of in Chicago at all. It's been completely on his shoulders. Young offensive line as well. So like it's a work in progress, a bunch of new faces. He's running a different system for the first time. Like it just takes time. And as impatient as we all are,

and the media doesn't help, right? Like with this, they need to be patient. For me, just even in these three weeks, I feel like I have seen progression from him. When you were going through it, and there were people that you wanted to measure yourself against, not historically but just like your sort of contemporaries, it does occur to me that

I plan to talk to you about how all these young quarterbacks are fundamentally in some form sh** all sorts of beds and out comes another quarterback who plays for another one of your former teams, Jaden Daniels. And that dude has a day that makes you feel like we made the right choice. And all of this is small sample size theater. But I am curious, how much were you paying attention to guys that you would be measured against while they were off and occasionally killing it. Well, listen, you're talking to a guy that to this day will forever be tied to Aaron

Rogers, right? He and I forever. And so I get it. I totally get it. And you know, my first few years obviously were very different than his first few years in the league. But that's the reality, right? And Bryce Young and CJ Stroud will forever

be tied together. And this draft class as a whole, all these QBs that went in the first round, again, will all be lumped together as we track their progress and careers. I think one of the unique things about this draft class, where especially was Jaden and Bo Nix. Because of the change in college football with NIL and the transfer portal that... Listen, I was 20 when I got drafted. Like my choices were to stay at Utah, you know, Urban had left for Florida or go pro and make money, right? Like it was very binary. That's it. Like these guys now, there's lots of choices. In fact, if you're not going to gonna be an early pick like you probably make more money in college, right?

And you can oh by the way You can transfer anywhere you want and play immediately and you know guarantee go to a great place to have success And so what I'm getting at is just that Jaden and Bo Nix these guys are five-year starters Five years Bo Nix has played more football than anybody ever you know Jayden's right there with him these guys have so much experience and I think it's made the college game better it's made quarterbacking in college especially better definitely older guys that are more experienced and now when they come to NFL I think they are more pro ready like I watched Jayden watch

he's so cool and calm in the pocket like he does not look like look like a rookie. And I do think that has to come from... And the blitz is coming and he hits that, you know, that deep go ball. Totally. We've only got ten guys on the field. Third down and seven. This one is launched for McLaurin. He's got it. Touchdown!

Well, even when you think about his progression in college, like Arizona State, he's starting as a young guy and playing. And then, oh, by the way, well, I'll just transfer to LSU, which is like a mini NFL team, you know? And then I'll go do this in the SEC. And oh, my style worked there. I won the freaking Heisman Trophy. And now I'm stepping up again.

So there's been this gradual step. Like, it's not as much of the zero to 60, you know, for me, the going from the Mountain West Conference and playing Wyoming to, you know, playing, you know, Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens. Like that just was very different. So for Jaden, I feel like that experience that he possesses, the calmness in the pocket, like, man, it looks unbelievable.

It's why he's, you know's set records already. It's a new day. How can you make the most of it with your membership rewards points? Earn points on everyday purchases. Use them for that long awaited vacation. You can earn points almost anywhere and they never expire. Treat your friends or spoil your family. Earn them on your adventure and use them how you want, when you want.

That's the powerful backing of American Express. Learn more at mx.ca slash ymx, terms apply. I want to ask you though, point blank, if Caleb Williams or Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence at this point, if they were to call you and say, Hey man, what's the thing that I need to make sure that I do? Whether it's any approach, any part of the approach of living this job, what do you think is being underrated still? You know, Trevor's a little different. I mean, he's signed his second contract. I mean, he's one of the highest paid guys in the league.

And Pablo with that, there was always a direct correlation. For me, it's like becoming the number one overall pick again. The expectation is to play like it. And, you know, for me, if I, when, in my career, when I did sign a big contract, like my rookie one, and also later was fortunate enough to sign, you know, another big contract, like expectations come with that. Right? Like, yeah, that's great.

Hooray. We got, you know, like this is amazing, life-changing, you know, thing that happened, but like it, it mounts for you, the pressure mounts. And so Trevor's kind of dealing with a whole nother animal. And also the expectations for this team are no longer to like, hey, go seven and nine. They're there to make the playoffs and win playoff games and again, continue to elevate.

And so for them to be 0 and 3 and then just to not even be competitive this last Monday night, that's only going to increase again Remember that that that like anxiety crank that like that's only getting jacked up here for them in that building And it's gonna mount again that stress like how does it affect people? How does it affect Doug Peterson and Trevor? You cannot bury the self-doubt Pablo. Like it's there, right? You have to confront it. Like this is real, this is hard, it is tough. And you have to meet it, right?

You can't wallow in it either, but you got to meet it in order to be able to move past it. And anytime that anxiety kicks in or self doubt, you got to be able to push it aside and get back to like what's important. And you've got to get back to the fearlessness. You can't go out there and try to be perfect as the number one overall pick. You can't go out there trying not to make mistakes. You know, have the courage to fail as crazy as that sounds. Like that's what you have to get to. And again, that's not holding on so freaking tight That again you become your own worst enemy. I want to take stock of of the league

Because the state of the union right now for passers for guys who did this job. It's not looking great You know yeah when you're watching football right now, you're seeing Less of everything that you'd want more of from your quarterbacks. Passing is down. As we said, the Andy Dalton thing, 300 yards and three touchdowns did not show up until deep in week three. Average depth of completion is down. Yards per game is down. Yards per completion is down. Touchdown passes is... So, and there's a bit of a murder mystery here, Alex, right? There are a bunch of suspects. I want to lay them out here for you briefly. The greater prevalence of young quarterbacks as now chronicled. The rise of

covered two defenses has been a thing, a debate, an active debate. Should we ban them? Has been an argument. Of course, you have defensive coordinators who are getting better at disguising coverages, bad offensive line play, the lack of preparation because preseason, you know, has become less of a functional thing at all. Do you have a favorite explanation as to why passing right now, despite being the thing everybody cares about the most, is also suffering in this way? There's a lot of reasons that do go into it. You hit on a lot of them. I think the major issue is just cyclical here. I mean, listen, we, in the last five to 10 years,

we really saw the emergence of kind of shotgun spread offense, RPO run game, take over the NFL. You know, like, it wasn't that long ago. Like I got, I ran a similar offense in college. Like when I got drafted, it was like, it was considered gimmicky. Like it was a joke. The offense that I ran in college, like it would a similar offense in college. Like when I got drafted, it was considered gimmicky. Like it was a joke, the offense that I ran in college. Like it would never work in the pros.

And then it is seemingly taken over the NFL. And so you've really seen, I think, a swing on the defensive side that, listen, we're just not, we're not going to give it up. We're not, you know, like, we're not going to let Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase throw it overhead. We're going to keep them in front of us. We're going to double it. We're not, you know, like, we're not going to let Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase throw it overhead. We're going to keep them in front of us. We're going to double it. We're not like these, especially these receivers on the outside, certainly a bunch

of them that all got paid here in the last couple of years. These guys are monsters. You cannot play them one on one. They will absolutely wreck a football game. And so I do think we've seen the emergence. When I, when I came to the NFL, do you know what middle linebackers looked like Pablo? I mean, they were 260 pound, neck rolls, just big giant, like, because you want to know what they were used to doing is like taking on fullbacks and two back run and stopping the run and again, quote unquote, pro style system. Do you know what middle linebackers look like now? Like they are fast flow, sideline to sideline, you know, 220 pounds maybe. these guys are like safety's playing linebacker because you need people that could play in space

Given what offense has gone and now you again once and this is just this is just the nature of kind of cycles in football like We've seen the other way the swing again to all these little bodies on the field. And it's weird that you're starting to see a little emergence of like, oh, the Pittsburgh Steelers, we're just going to run the football. San Diego Chargers have a 300 pound fullback and we're going to run the football. Derek Henry, suddenly. Yes. With the Ravens. And we're these kind of old school, multiple tight ends,

fullbacks back out on the field, big fullbacks. And this is a way to win football games. And it's weird that now defenses are having a hard time defending those offenses, right? Because they seem so foreign. That the guys out there, this is weird, they're like, weird. I-formation? What is that? You know?

Like, that's crazy. I mean, really what you're saying is, in the way that your suit, as the number one overall draft pick, was baggy, We're cyclically coming back around. We've got skinny jeans. I pray not. Now we're going back to 15 buttons up to your neck like you had. It's fashion. I pray not.

I do see Baggy coming back on my Instagram follow. It's crazy. No, I pray that the six button suit, the Carmelo Anthony suit that I was wearing never makes its way back. Listen, we're three weeks into the season so there's still a lot of football left. But I do think another thing is kind of the whole mentality to off season and preseason as well. Like to Bryce Young, and not him, it's not his decision, but like the Carolina Panthers,

he played one series in the preseason. One series. He has a brand new offense, brand new head coach, and to get ready for the season, he played a series. And that a brand new offense, brand new head coach, and to get ready for the season, he played a series. And that's most of the NFL. It is the vast majority of the NFL. A few places, and it's weird the places that take preseason seriously are Kansas City and San Francisco. And, you know, these, the weird lead, the teams that ended up in the championships game, you know, Detroit and Baltimore. We know how much John Harbaugh takes preseason seriously.

You know, like, it's funny how those teams seem to have success because they're operated differently. There's a different culture. Simultaneously, and we've alluded to it already, but the middle class of quarterbacks, right? A small group now, ever smaller for those reasons, right? Teams want to hit the giant home run. Um, but you watch and you see not just Andy Dalton, but as you say, Gino Smith.

Um, these guys who are not going to be talked about or fetishized in the ways that, uh, number one overall picks have been, but I just wonder, like, are we missing that market inefficiency? We've lost the middle market for quarterbacks. The whole nature of the quarterback in NFL is like, if you're a starting caliber quarterback, Pablo, that you can ask for $50 million. And then you're either that or you're not. Like that, there used to be a middle market for quarterbacks.

They're like, hey, this guy's a pretty good player, but he's not top tier, so we're gonna pay him a middle market contract, which is still great money, and then we can spend the leftover on a receiver or a left tackle. And that's just gone. Like again, if you're a starting caliber quarterback, like you can command.

Like when you look at the list of top 10 paid quarterbacks, I think two of them have ever made the playoffs or won a playoff game. Like it's crazy. Like, you know, that what these guys are getting paid and we've lost that. And I also think there's this huge AFC NFC bias Pablo. Oh, explain this. I don't know. I don't know this. So like forever that like the last several years, the AFC is the best conference and a lot of it because of their quarterbacks. Like when you think about the list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, it's all AFC. It's Patrick, it's Joe Burrow, it's Josh Allen, it's Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rogers are

over there now. Like the list just keeps going of the AFC QBs. Yeah, like these like superheroes larger than life. And the NFC I feel like just absolutely gets dismissed. And you hit on this list. Like these guys so far this year are outplaying their AFC like the big-name high-profile guys like the Gino Smiths of the world They're like, oh this guy What I mean is a backup for like eight years, right? Like Sam, you feel you out of football the guy you you you you have nightmares about winding up with starting for your fantasy Football team or the guys killing it in real life Killing it Baker Mayfield. Oh son. He's lining it up Jared Goff

Oh Kyler Murray these guys that like aren't seen as good as their like AFC peers. And like it couldn't be more untrue right now. Like these guys are playing unbelievable football. It reminds me of a bottom line feeling that I'm left with every time I end up learning a ton from you, which is that in the NFL, when it comes to quarterbacks in particular, nobody knows anything. Like we can reverse engineer. And again, I come to you because you lived it and you have this first person perspective. But when you zoom out and you consider the cycle and the arc of all of it, Alex, like we don't spend, I think it's very difficult to find a thing that America obsesses over more than quarterbacks,

that they are worse at accurately forecasting. find a thing that America obsesses over more than quarterbacks, that they are worse at accurately forecasting. I think it's fascinating. And this goes back to the draft. You know, you and I talked about the history of the Wonder Lick and the 40 and the Combine, the S2 test. How do you identify an NFL quarterback? What is actually important and how do you identify those traits? And so far, apparently nobody has a clue. How does Brock Purdy go to the last pick in the draft? I mean, it just, it doesn't make sense. The greatest

quarterback of all time, you know, for now is Tom Brady. Like how does he fall? And yet how many, you know, build a player type QBs have gone in the first round? These just, you know, again, this 6'5", shredded, can throw at 80 yards, huge hands have not performed in the NFL. Like it's got the highest bus rate of any position in the draft. Like when you look at first round positions, quarterback is like, it's below 50%, the hit rate. And so clearly the NFL historically like has just,

has no idea what they're doing on this. And so I think it's fascinating again, that like what are the attributes and characteristics that are most important? And obviously, they're not measurables. Like, let's, we can just start there. They're not things that we know how to measure to this point. And certainly the S2 test is like trying to figure that out. Yeah, processing speed, all that. I went around and asked, you know, with ESPN, I got to interview a ton of QBs this off season in training camp. And that was one of my questions for all these guys, because I kind of wanted

to go to the source. Yeah. I know you said that with Aaron Rodgers. Who else did you talk to? Let's hear from Aaron. Yeah. Like, let's talk to Patrick. Let's, you know, like Kurt Cousins and Jared Goff and Brock Purdy. Like what, you know, you're a GM. What are you looking for? All of resiliency came up, right? That just, it is going to be a freaking hard road and you better be mentally tough and resilient if you want a chance to make it. And I think that's something that we lose sight of because we only really see them on, see these guys on Sundays and we, you know, they're so glorified and even like the great ones, like they just, you go through struggle is such a part of everybody's story to success

And so you better have the makeup I think to work through that, you know beyond whatever physical attributes And so and I get to the point that like there is a physical floor that I think any guy has to have right? But that's all it is is just a floor and then from there I think it's these things that you can't measure that probably have the biggest impact on their success. You need to own the vulnerability. You need to own. Yes. Like to be a leader means to be vulnerable.

The reason I say nobody is better equipped to talk about this job than you is because you, through pain and suffering and triumph and then pain again and then triumph again and now podcasting, you clued into that in a way that is just blunt and honest. I spent six years trying to be perfect. I was scared to death to make a mistake. I took the field with the worst mindset possible.

And certainly there was a moment of hitting rock bottom. You know, we mentioned, you know, the entire all of candlesticks screaming, you know, David Carr was a moment that I'll never forget. But I didn't, the only way I got out of it was through great teammates and great leaders that helped me get back to like the other side of it was through great teammates and great leaders that helped me get back to like the other side of it, right?

The courage, the fearlessness, like Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid, you know, changed my career. Um, absolutely changed my career. These guys, I think recognized, you know, how difficult it is to do this. Um, brought joy back into it, but really like the fearlessness. Neither of those coaches reinforced the kind of the fear of making mistakes. Like I hate do-overs. Like as a player, Pablo, I hated do-overs like in practice. There was this like idea that you had to be perfect in practice. And my first, I feel

like that's what consumed my first like five years in the league. Like, God, if we had an incompletion, I'll like, like, I can just hear like Mike Singletary saying, do it again. And it was like, oh no, now like the scout team knows the play and like the next one would be incomplete again. It's like, do it again. And like, it just was miserable. All it was miserable. And it like only reinforced this idea that like I had to be perfect.

And then to fast forward to Jim and Andy, and that's just not the philosophy. No job has more of a credit dysmorphia. If I can invent a term like that, where it's just sort of like everybody has a warp sense of what they're actually responsible for because everybody sees this as the most important thing. The reason the NFL is the greatest challenge in sports is because it takes a thousand different things to get the formula right. It does. And those are constantly changing.

And I think that's what I think is fascinating about it. I think that's why people are consumed with it and I know that that's why I am as well. But for anybody trying to take credit for the singular thing and that like, you know, winning and quarterback success, again, it's just, it doesn't know what they're talking about. Yeah. Um, Alex Smith, uh, my friend, thank you for helping me, uh, get better at knowing what the f**k I'm talking about.

Anytime, Papa. For more from Alex Smith, by the way, I greatly encourage you to check out his new podcast entitled Glue Guys, which he co-hosts with Shane Badier and Ravi Gupta. It is devoted to discussions from across sports and across business about how to make the people we work with better at what they do. And because I now consider Alex Smith,

after our late nights at ESPN Daily and these episodes at PTFO, a branch of my podcast coaching tree, I should disclose to you that it's really good, this new show that he has. As for us, I am Pablo Torre, and this has been Pablo Torre Finds Out, produced by Metal Arc Media. We'll talk to you next time.