The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz - The Hockey Show: The Life of a Rose Arias

Episode Date: August 15, 2025

David is on vacation with his family, and we kick off the show with him and Ethan playing a good old-fashioned game of Jewish Geography before discussing Matthew Tkachuk gracing the cover of NHL 26. This week's wins and fails include Barbie releasing a hockey player doll, former Florida Panther David Booth tearing it up in Australia, the Seattle Kraken mascot narrowly avoiding a bear attack, and Leon Draisaitl ripping heaters at his wedding. Plus, that Taylor Swift lady is dropping ANOTHER album. Then, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic joins the show to break down what goes into his analytic modeling of the NHL, which teams spend their money most efficiently, how improved the Carolina Hurricanes will be this year, and drops an incredible line about just how good the Florida Panthers are. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I've never seen a more demoralizing playoff team where you think you have them, and then suddenly they score three goals, and you're like, we do not have them. Welcome to the hockey show. My name is Roy Bellamy. Rosie is in the shipping container, and Ethan is in the studio with me. Who let that happen? You know who would let that happen? David Dwork, who are of the hockey news.

He is currently on assignment, and by assignment, I mean, he is. His wife made him take the family. vacation. The only assignment that matters. Yes. David, where are you? What's going on? I am in South New Jersey, where my wife grew up. We were visiting her home right now, but we're about to head up to the summer camp where we met all the way back in 2002. You guys met at summer camp? We did a long time ago. We were teenagers. We haven't been there in a while. She went there for like her whole life. I finally went there for like three summers working as a counselor. But now we're going back with our kids for the first time and like I haven't been there since 2010

She hasn't been there I think since since like 2015 or something so it's been it's been a minute So we're pretty pumped to go what's the camp called benabreth Perlman camp Wait where is this is it's in Pennsylvania you said in starlight Pennsylvania It's in starlight Pennsylvania I went to camp is it's in Wayne County oh god oh my god this is great Jewish geography Oh yeah this is great Jewish geography classic Wayne County Camp starlight No, I went to a Quaic. Okay. Should we board them all with camp stories, David?

No, dude, I'd like people to continue watching. We got like 15 minutes. We don't know on time of that. You're familiar with Alice's, I'm guessing, right? Uh, Cal Palace. Yes. And Jared... Those were the places that they would take...

Hancock, New York, baby. Yeah, the red, the red, uh... Oh, what's the... The red awning over the movie later? No, what's the red... The bar right there when you get into Hancock, New York. The two-story bar? Yeah, it's called the Red Something.

That was always how I knew I was like 10 minutes away from camp. What was the red something? What was the MLB All-Star game that ended in a tie? I watched that game from that bar. The game in Milwaukee. So it must have been 2010. Or 2007. It must be 2007.

This is crazy. Don't you have pictures to show us or something? Oh, he's got a great picture. Well, I gave you a picture of like my wife and I, from the day that we started dating from July 14th, 2002, which is like 25 years ago or whatever it is now. My math is terrible. But, you know, that's how long my wife and I have been together. That's when we were at camp. So if you have the picture, you want to show it.

It's very, very period in terms of, I have the frosted tips rocking and all that good stuff because it was 2002. I actually got really bad with the frost thing. So I was playing hockey back then. I was living up north. So I started just bleaching my hair just to do something fun. At one point, I kind of looked like slim shady from like that 2002 era. It wasn't pretty. It wasn't pretty.

Wow. Well, a lot has changed. It was 2002, the first time you met your life? Wow. So, what, 23 years? Man. Yeah. Yeah, like I said, my math is terrible.

But yeah, it's... Now, let me ask you something, David. In this picture, it looks like you have something hanging from your ear. Do you still have, like, is your ear still pierced? No, the holes have closed up. Like, you can see, like, the little dimples from the earrings, but I think I maxed out at five at one point. I had, like, two on the bottom of each, and then I had the cartilage at one point.

It's what we did. How hands were working? It's what we did? It's what people did back at that time. I don't know. It was common. How handsome is twerkey? Yeah, you were.

Were. Thank you. Past sense. He's a professional now. That's how we rolled back then. That's when I was a hockey player trying to do my brain. Is that an MJ Bulls jersey? No, that's a Dennis Rodman Bulls jersey.

That's even cool. That might be even cooler. Rosie, you have a video. Is this going to make me upset? So I have a video. It might make you upset. But David, you're the only one that can tell us if this is right or it's not right because when I saw it

I started laughing and I'm like I'm gonna ask David because he's the only one that has played hockey and two is a goalie so hit it boy left right left welcome's after left again

oh boy my favorite part of the game cuddles yeah did they make McKenzie Blackwood British So yeah McKenzie Blackwood

That is a great stretch What's doing lateral movements left the right Honestly Rose I'm amazed at the accuracy of this Right That's almost like That's what goes through my head every pregame I'm literally going left skate

Right skate Left skate hop over the line Left skate right skate So yeah it's You know When nothing's doing it I'm just like wee Wee! Water! Put the puck's over there, but it's not coming over here.

Now that guy has it again. But you better get off the... Like, yeah, what goes on in my head? It's very childish. I'm very accurate. Yeah, that's a... That was good. ...mentality right there.

All right, so we were off last week, and we didn't get to talk about this news that came out. The sports division over at Electronic Arts announced that Matthew Kachuk would be the cover athlete of EA Sports NH26. All right. Now, on the deluxe edition, they have Matthew, Brady, and Keith Kachuk. And they got Keith Kachuk, by the way, in a blues jersey. And they got him like... And it's playing weight. The thing I like, right, is that it's the video game versions, kind of, of the players.

So, like, it's a very young version of Keith Kachuk. And he looks awesome. I love that they did this. This is such a cool touch. Yes, that's nice. There's a good-looking big Walt right there. So, yeah, that's great. Dad and son, they look alike.

Brady? No, Brady, no. Brady and Keith looks so much. It's a solid analyzation, Rose. Father and son, look-alike. It's the first Panther on the cover of A video game since John Van Bieswick on NHO

97. Now, I've had my complaints about the EA Sports NHL franchise. I mean, it's been bad for the past 10 years. I'm hoping that it is much better. They seem to be revamping the BIA Pro mode. So, yeah, I'm really hoping that this is going to be a good game this year.

It has something to do with my fail of the week. That's always my fate. I always like the be a pro mode. Like, people always kind of play it for like ultimate team or dynasty, but I always like to be a pro because it's just, it's fun. You feel like you're, no. I mean, when you create a player. I mean, it's just so much work. Like, I just like to log on. I like to be my favorite team and I like to make them beat everybody and win the Stanley Cup. That's why I play Madden. It's the only way to make the dolphins any good. Oh, that's a good point. Yeah. So you're a franchise mode of type of guy. Yeah. No, for sure. I want to start my team.

I want to play. I want it to be accurate to like the current NHL team and I want to make them do like the best possible stuff that you know it's like fantasy land for me that's why i got a vetchkin on the panthers back in the day well he technically was almost the draft was not that that's that is one of the sneakiest things any team has ever tried to do and i absolutely love that the panthers can you imagine if that had become the norm though and like every draft year you had people calculating leap years for guys and trying to like sneak one in there like that would have been a crazy it's cheap precedent to set it's very very smart it's why rick dully's name is on the cup uh wins and fails of the week is presented by Yeager Meister. Serve it cold or don't serve it at all.

Yeagermeister. Damn, that's cold for more. Visit yagamemeister.com. Drink responsibly. David from currently in New Jersey, please give us your win. My win of the week from Mount Laurel, New Jersey, goes all the way over to Australia. Oh my God. The Australian ice hockey league. Former Florida Panther David Booth is tearing that league up right now. They're about halfway done with their season. He's played only 11 games, and yet he still has 25 goals and another 25 assists in 11 games for the Melbourne ice. And I think you just played the replay of this ridiculous masterpiece spinning goal.

He scored against the Brisbane Lightning, another great name in the Australian Ice hockey League. David Booth will be 41. Oh, is it Brisbane? Not Brisbane? Yeah. Well, that's my Miami accent. There's an Olympics there in like 2032.

Well, I hope ice hockey wouldn't be summer Olympics. it would be, there would be summer, not winter. But anyway, David Booth is like almost my age. Below the equator. He is still tearing it up in hockey. We just saw him. Wasn't he at that alumni game when the All-Star game was here? Yeah, a few years ago.

Now, I can ask you something, David? Sorry. I don't know a lot, admittedly, about the Australian Hockey League. But I saw the score in that game was like 8-7. Are the rules different, or do they just not give a shit about defense over there? Excuse my language. The rules are not different from what I, from the, games that I watch, I mean, the rules look pretty similar. I think it's just more, for lack of a

better term, Australia, it's more beer league for a pro league than what we see over here, which, look, it looked like a lot of fun. The fans were having fun. You couldn't hear the announcers on that clip that we played, but even they were like going crazy for it. So it just sounds like everybody's having a great time over there, especially David Booth. I got a great win this week. This is coming out of PWHL, the professional women's hockey league. Tim Hortons and Barbie have a very released a hockey player Bobby doll. Let's buy one for the hockey show. Let's buy one for Claire.

Well, for Claire, but also for the hockey show. Princess Claire needs the goalie. Well, that's going to be difficult because it's currently sold out. In Canada, every $5 from each sale will go to the Grindstone Foundation who will help girls who face financial barriers play hockey. There's also some limited addition

dolls of Sarah Nurse. That's my girl. And Marie-Philip Poulin? Or, what, they were available. I say they were available, because I just said, they are currently out of stock. They have sold out. Will they be coming back into stock? Like, can we get them?

I hope so. Yeah, that would be. That's really cool, though. Yeah, that is very cool. What took so long, though? Why are we just now in 2025 getting our first hockey Barbie? Because there's like a Barbie for everything. There's like, you know, ventriloquist Barbie, mine Barbie.

Why are we just now getting hockey Barbie? I don't really think that they've ventured into sports all that much. So that would probably be one of the first. I'm sure there's a few. I'm sure there's a cheerleader Barbie two years ago, so that's what it is. Caitlin Clark Barbie.

We need Rosie. We need the Barbie version. We need Rosie instead of Barbie. That's a good idea. Oh, man. Everybody will buy it. The Rosie line. Ethan, you'll win.

My win in the week, guys. Not normally somebody I would hand out a win to, but I mean, this is one of the great moments in his life. I mean, he finally got a ring. Leon Drysidal got hitched this summer. Congratulations to him. It's the first ring that he has. Hopefully it'll be the last because it seems like the Panthers

Hopefully he doesn't get a divorce But no I'm talking about him I don't want him to get a stay in the cup ring Because I want the Panthers to keep winning the stand in the cup Anyway This picture of Leon Drysettle rule so hard It's his wedding He's taking off his dress shoes

And putting on his slides that he's been wearing around all weekend And he's ripping a dart Yeah that's the least surprise thing I've ever seen That's exactly how your night should end at your wedding Yeah with a cigarette getting lung cancer So my wife would have kicked my ass if I smoked to sit around. You know what? It's your wedding night, man.

It's your wedding night. Yes, and I'd like to enjoy my wedding night, if you know what I mean. Let loose a little. Yeah, Rosie. Piss off my wife on day one. Okay, so don't cut me off. Okay. My win of the week goes to...

It's a great intro. I'm telling you, this girl knows what she's doing. You're controlling the nights. Yeah, I know. This girl knows what she's doing. She's very intelligent. And this clip is going to just sums it up because I think we have to talk about her. And she just announced.

her new album, so let's go. As we all know, you know, you guys have a lot of male sports fans that listen to your podcast, and I think we all know that if there's one thing that male sports fans want to see in their spaces and on their screens. It's more

of me. The sarcasm there is just epic. She knows. She's like, nobody wants to sing me. I really like her talking voice. Like, I know she's like known for singing her, but I really like her talking voice. Like, it's nice. She's so calculated that that's why she's a billionaire.

So she's a good joke she had at the end. It's true. It's true. The last thing I want to see more of when watching sports is Taylor Swift. I've seen enough of her. Well, that was pretty good, though, when she was on with the Kelsey Brothers. I mean, I've seen a lot of that over the last couple of days. And it's actually entertaining for somebody that's not, you know, I've got Taylor Swift songs on my phone.

My kids love them. I'm not like a Swifty. But I did enjoy the podcast. Look what you made me do. What's your favorite Taylor Swift song, David? Oh, God. I don't know. I don't know if I have a favorite. I like one. Like I could name like shake it off.

Yeah. I don't want to hear your favorite songs in Taylor Swift. I'm moving on the fails. David, what's your fail of the week? Naming Taylor Swift songs. No. Yeah. My fail of the week came on Wednesday over at the Halinka Gretzky Cup, which this year is taking place in Chechenya and Slovakia. There was a really cool moment between a U.S. player, a referee, and a German goaltender. So if we can put the audio up, for this. The U.S. player shot it on the goalie after the whistle. It might be getting a penalty. We'll see how they sort this out.

Hey, six, six! Go to the goalkeeper! Go to the goalkeeper! Six! It was after the missile! The referee is yelling at the U.S. player to go apologize. You go to the goalkeeper, it's enough. Go, go to the goalkeeper. Not cool, great accent. Go to the gold keeper. I don't want to give a penalty. Go to the goalkeeper. No, go to the goalkeeper.

That's going to be our... And the goalie's like, leave off. You go apologize right now or I'm giving you a penalty. So that's definitely a major fail. I love that the referee is like getting the back of the goalie. You don't shoot it after the whistle. Everybody knows that's a no-no. But the apology instant, you know, I kind of like it.

All right. My fellow in a week is a promotional video shoot. And this one went a little bit too far. This is crazy. Yeah. Booy, as you know, is the Seattle Cracking mascot. And booing some others went fly. fishing at Ketmai National Park in the Pacific Northwest when a brown bear showed up please

played a video now while we were fishing this is bad we had a pretty close call with a couple bears the bear the bear oh I got to break you off okay okay hey Sam we got a bear we got to move down oh my god look at that thing there's a big bear it's so cute and we didn't even ran like I was like the guy's like who hired the There. Ron McGill told us you don't run. Low and slow, right? Low and slow.

I would have run there. I'm going to stare away with my head. Oh. It doesn't like buoy. The bear charged buoy. When the bear starts galloping, that's where my ball is going. So we got out of it okay, but it was a close call. Like the bear's galloping at them and nobody's moving.

Like they're just like strolling. What the hell? I was listening to what chaos. yesterday and they were doing a whole segment. Shout out to what? K.S., by the way. I love those guys. What would they have done if Bui, if something had happened to Bui? Hey, Bear! Hey, Bear! Ethan, you fail. My fellowie comes from, I don't know exactly where this comes from, but this is Patty Cain's

kid, Patty Cain the third, and Alex DeBrinckett's kid, Archie DeBringt, going at it with each other. Having a little tussle on the ice here. You got to love these kids. It's going at it. Not the greatest fighting strategy, I would say. None of them stayed on their feet, just kind of rolling around on the ice, but you got to love it. Rosie, you failed. Okay, my fail, I just want to put the picture there because EA sports

did a simulation and, we can laugh about it. Yeah. So that was my fail all the week. How about that? Yeah, they were definitely wrong. But those on DKN, we have Don Lucision from the Athletic coming up next. That is our guest. You can find

us on YouTube, Levitart and Friends. You can click on the playlist this tab and click on our folder to see Dom Decision, who's coming up next. The Dan Libatar Show with Sto Gats is sponsored by Liquid Ivy. All right, so I'm trying to soak up the last little bits of summer while raising a six-month-old baby. Let me tell you. Being a dad to a baby that loves waking up around 3 o'clock in the morning, every

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Kansas. 21 and over. Agent eligibility varies by jurisdiction, void in Ontario. Bonus bets expires seven days after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKNGG.com slash audio. Don Bush Justin is on the show right now is the National NHL writer for The Athletic. He recently wrote an article about how the 32 franchises

in the National Hockey League are efficient in their roster building and using their money. Now, I can give you the top five and the bottom five to save time. All right, the top five, we have Tampa A-plus, the first. Second, Carolina, A-plus. Third, Colorado, A-plus, and then we get into the A's.

Florida has an A. The fourth, Ottawa has an A. They are fifth. And the bottom five, 28th is Anaheim at a C. The Islanders, 29th with a C. Nashville D-plus, they are 30th. Chicago D-plus, 31st. That's a big whiff right there, by the way.

And Seattle D-plus at 32. That's the Chandler-Siefen contract. That is true. That's a bad contract. Right. What went into this formula, Dom? And can you tell me why the New York Islanders are dead last in this situation? The street continues, Dave. So what goes in this formula is I first rate every player, and I have a model for that where I look at how many points each player scores, how they drive play, who they play against, who they play with. And I have something that's sort of like war-like. follow baseball, so when's above replacement? And then I just convert that into how much that should cost on the open market. I then apply an age curve using comparable players in the past to see

how each player ages. And then I apply that to the future cap growth to get how much each player's contract should be worth. I added it all up for every team, see how likely the contracts are to be valuable. And you end up with the Islanders in 29th, not 32nd. And that is because they do have some good contracts on the books. And they don't have a lot of horrible ones like Seattle or Nashville have. You have Tony DiAngelo at a B plus. Why? I think if you look at someone like Shane Gossisbear on Carolina where they are a pure like power play quarterback kind of vibe and bring offense usually those players don't cost a lot on the open market but a model like this might view them more favorably for their offensive output and with no adopts and gone

de angelo should get the bulk of the power play time for the islanders I I think he's probably priced fairly and my model is probably wrong about him and wrong about gossus bear because there's a reason teams don't pay those other players a lot but that is why he's uh he's rated high and same as gossus bear for carolina seems the model doesn't account for some of the things you don't like about tony de angelo roy yeah that's true as the content of one's character convince my producer eithen here uh as to why the florida panthers shouldn't be number one on the list i mean i was personally surprised they weren't number one uh i think the reason is They have won two Stanley Cups.

They can sort of do whatever they want right now, and that includes the Marshand and Bennett contracts, I think, are probably on the more expensive side compared to what they usually do. Usually they get incredible deals. You saw in Reinhardt, Barkov, Kachuk, Foreslating, even Eklad this year. But Marshawn Bennett seemed sort of like luxury contracts where both guys wanted to get paid, and I think aptly so, considering they've been underpaid for a fair bit of their, their career. Marshawn, I think what's important here is the cap hit, which is 5.3, which for

the next three years is going to be incredible. But there is no precedent for a player, even of his caliber, playing to 43 years old. So that is where the value just drops off significantly because the expectation is he's not going to be very good when he's 42 years old. But he may prove us wrong. He may prove me wrong. He may be this incredible player still at that age. But the term length is the big thing. It's the same with Sam Bennett, who I think is a very complicated player to price because during the regular season, he might be a 6 million player. During the playoffs, he's a 10 million player.

So you see how you get to 8 million for the Panthers. And I think 8 is probably the limit I would go to for him as well. I wrote about that extensively because I just do think it's a fascinating deal. But the model is really only considering his regular season, output erroneously obviously because he's such a playoff demon but those two deals their deals florida had to make to extend this championship window because they are firmly in it and the next three years are more important than the four years after that where those contracts might become a bit more problematic so dom i i love the athletic and i think you guys do a tremendous job

and i was reading the you soften it up no i do i do i read the athletic all the time And I was reading the 10 Worst Contracts article. The guy you just brought up, Sam Bennett, made the list at number eight over Cody C.C. I understand that that's simply what the model is putting out there. And it's not you saying it. And I think you do a great job in the article of clarifying, look, we all know that this isn't really what Sam Bennett's value is, that he's more of a valuable player in the playoffs. So I guess my question is kind of hockey has always seemed to me like a very difficult sport to quantify. and you do a lot of quantifying of hockey.

So where do you, in your analysis, kind of let the quantification end and start doing things with your eyes? And how do you make up the difference between what your eyes say and what the numbers say? I think I just try to always bridge the gap as much as possible between analytics and the eye test and improve my model in that way. Two years ago, I think one of the biggest gaps was that it would often rate third pair defensemen a little better than it should and a rated first pair defense and a little worse than it should. And if you talk to any hockey person, if you just watch the game, you're like, there's a reason this guy is playing top pair of minutes, there's a reason this guy is not getting in the top

four. And I think the numbers sort of obfuscate the difference between playing the top lineup and playing at the bottom. So I worked fairly diligently to account for quality of competition, better quality of teammates, and get to a point where it's not overrating players that play soft minutes and giving credit where credits do to players like Foresling, players like Slavin, who play these extremely difficult minutes. And there will still be lapses and judgment. And a lot of time, it's just trusting your gut and trusting what you see as well. But understand. that where there is a gap is always where things are interesting.

And when you talk about Bennett, what he does is quantifiable in the playoffs. And so the gap is not between the eye test and the analytics. It's between what's quantifiable in the playoffs and what's quantifiable in the regular season, where in the regular season, it does seem like he saves a bit of energy because if he played the way he did in the playoffs all year, he would not make it to the playoffs. I think that is something where you just have to. use a bit of common sense and also use the numbers to see is this just something that's random for a lot of players it is they might be like a one playoff wonder villi lino comes to

mind from a decade ago Bennett seems to do this every year to the point where you you watch him you see him do it every year and you think I think this is probably real to the point that the next thing I do want to look at this model is how much of the small sample playoff data should I be incorporating because right now it is none and generally for like 90% of the population that'll probably work for players like Bennett for players on the team I cheer for in Toronto it also does not work so there's that gap I think I still need to bridge where you probably don't mind me sorry I don't want to interrupt you but if you don't worry asking do you not incorporate playoffs because some guys play in the playoffs.

and some guys don't and some guys play a number, you know, go deep in the playoffs and some guys play one round in the playoffs. So it would throw off the data. Like, what's the reasoning there? There, it's a, it's a bit of that. It's a bit of the fact that it's a small sample where if a player plays really poorly for four games in the regular season, it means nothing. If he plays really poorly in the playoffs, it means everything. And sort of that can throw off the data. But it's also us taking steps to improve things in the right order. So if I was not qualifying qualifying quality competition very well before, I would not be able to look at playoff data appropriately

because there's a big difference between the Oilers playing a Soft King's team every year and Florida and Tampa battling it out. Huge difference in quality competition where you'd want to account for how difficult it was where you might be able to make a bit more excuses for Nikita Kutrov playing not as well because he is constantly going up against

Barkov and Forzling every shift compared to the regular season where he's getting a nice mix of not just Florida but also Buffalo and this year Boston was pretty terrible so it's something you can't just do everything at once and I'm only

one man so this is the next step where Now that I have a better understanding quality competition, I can apply it to playoffs and see how predictive it is adding. Because I have looked at it before when I didn't have proper quality competition data. And it said just use regular season data. The playoff data is noisy. But now that this is accounted for, I think the answer will be different. We're seeing that transpire with a player like Bennett.

Tom, I wanted to ask you about some teams that I think made some big improvements this off season. I know you kind of covered on it a lot last month after free agency and everything kind of shook out. But two teams out West who nobody really thinks much of at this point, talking about San Jose, who was bottom of the league last year. I think they finished like 40 points out of a playoff spot. And Anaheim, who they were okay. They were still like 20 points out of a playoff spot, 10, 20 points or whatever it is. But I think both of them did a lot to improve this off season, whether talking about San Jose bringing in like Skinner and Gaudet and Orlov, the Ducks, Kreider, Granlin. And, you know, they got, you know, our buddy Chicken Wing out in New York last year, too.

So they've got some decent dyes there as well. But just in terms of off-season improvements, San Jose and Anaheim for sure. But who do you think are going to make the biggest jump this year from last year? It is always a tough question because all the times when you see these big jumps, they're sort of unexpected. Like last year, Montreal, I think a lot people expect them to be at the bottom. and they just had a lot of tangible growth right off the bat and throughout the season they got better and better. And I think they can be a team that staves off regression

because they added jobs and because they added boldage. And Columbus as well as another great example from last year where no one really saw it coming. But the one thing with Columbus that I think applies to a team like Anaheim is they got a new coach who knew what he was doing in Dina Basin. they got a lot more out of players already on the roster. And I think that is something we can see with Anaheim where even just beyond the numbers, beyond who they added, beyond the fact that there are a lot of young players who are expected to grow this season,

they have a new coach in Joel Quenville, who is one of the best coaches in the world. And I think he can get a lot more of this roster than I forgot who their previous coach was. I'm not going to lie. I don't like what he did with it. Like every year, like, oh, Anaheim's going to do something, and they never did anything. And I will blame the coach whose name I forgot. And I do think they'll be better for that reason where I look at what my model has for this year,

and I look at what the betting market has. And it seems like the betting market believes that, where I might think the roster is 74 point capable, the betting market thinks it's 80 or 85. That's the coach bump that they believe. Kwenville can have. And I think it's hard to argue against that where I would expect Anaheim is definitely the team to make the biggest jump. Utah is another popular one as well, although as much as I like some of the ads they made, I think there's some question marks on

their depth compared to what they had last year. I also wanted to ask you about a team that I think is going to be better this season, not that they needed to be that much better, but Carolina a big boom that they made this offseason was getting Nick Illersh from Winnipeg. I just think it's a great fit. I think you wrote something about also just how it just seems like he's going to be a good guy there,

just a good two-way player with a high-end offensive capabilities. Obviously, they lost something in the rant and in trade when they sent Nietzsche South West. But I feel like this isn't getting discussed a lot in just terms of, I think, Carolina, even though they went to the conference final last year

and second in the division, all that, I think that they're going to take a step forward this year. I think there's a big signing for them. I just wanted to get your take on it. Yeah, Carolina's interesting because they're always near the top of the league, but they're also extremely young, which I think people underrate right now. They are not better than Florida, obviously. They keep losing to them in the conference finals in incredible fashion,

but they are younger than Florida. And so there will probably be at some point an inflection where Carolina might surpass Florida because of how much youth they have, how they are doing contract efficiency stuff at the same scale where they have all these great long-term contracts and deals. And Eilers, I think, gives them pretty much exactly what Netschus Watt, which is a chaotic, dynamic player with the puck who can bring it up the ice and not depend so much on forechecking dummy chase, give them a different look up front. And you combine that with the fact that they ended up with Stan Coven as well. I think they're a lot deeper now.

They have a lot more four weapons. They have, I think, a big three up front, which is really important. If you look at all the contenders, they have three incredible forwards. And I think Eilers slides in with Ajo and Jarvis in that way, Svetnikov, too, if he bounces back. But one question mark I have with them is if their 2C is yes, Bari Kotkinami, I am a bit worried about just how high they can climb. But they are very clearly the class of the Metro this year.

Daily Faceoff has Seth Jarvis listed as their 2C? Just Barry Cote Cone emmy as a 4C, which we kind of, I think we've all come to the conclusion. That's kind of more of his spot. But, I mean, Carolina, they still look so far away. Like, the Panthers demolish them again in this series. And it's not like the Panthers got any worse. So I just, you know, is the model really high on Carolina again? Because that's a team that, you know, numbers always kind of love.

Mm-hmm. So if you only use XG or C, you're going to love Carolina a bit too much. I do look at goals as well. And I have Carolina, I think, an appropriate spot, which is seventh. But they have a softer division, so they might jump up ahead of some of the Atlantic teams just by virtue of the Atlantic being, I think, the deepest division in the league. Same with the Central is pretty tough as well. I like Carolina a lot. I think they have a lot of room to grow.

I don't know how fair it is that they're extremely far away when you compare them to Florida. because based on the playoffs we saw everyone is far away. It seemed like Toronto at some points was close and then they got demolished. Tampa Bay at some points was close. Then they got demolished. Carolina at some points were close. Sorry, they got demolished and then at some points made it close. And then same with Edmonton where at some points they were close and then Florida just,

I have never seen a more demoralizing playoff team where you think you have them. And then suddenly they score three goals and you're like, we do not have them. It was wild to watch. That line just, oh, I love hearing that. A surprising thing that I saw in the article was the Philadelphia Flyers and just how much money they have towards the salary cap. What happened? I was absolutely stunned going through cap wages and Puckpedia,

seeing them at the top of the salary cap list and then looking at their roster and wondering where, oh, where did all this money go? Apparently, a lot of it is spent on the league worst goaltending for some reason. Dan Vladar. Yeah, they, you got like $3 million for Vladar, $3 million for Fedatov, $3 million for Erson. None of them are good. Makes perfect sense to me. I do like the Trevor Ziegress bet for them, because they do need to take those high-upside risks,

But at the same time, Ziegress was not great in Anaheim, I think, has stumbled a lot in his development. So he's obviously some of that's pricey who could get to his cap hit in terms of value. It's just not something you can reasonably bet on now. I think the big thing is, obviously, Sean Gouturier, when he signed his deal was absolutely worth it, one of the best two-way centers league, got injured, just isn't that guy anymore, unfortunately. And finally, yeah, you have to explain this to me. You've been pulling over the rosters for a long time now. Why exactly hasn't Bill Zito won the Jim Gregory Award? This is a great question.

And will he win, based on your model for this upcoming season, will he win next season? I don't know how he doesn't. He hasn't won one yet. This last year seems the most egregious because he added Marchand and Seth Jones. And meanwhile, did Jim Nill win again? He added Coim. Of course. Yes.

Who else would have won? one. Yep. It's just, I, unfathomable that he hasn't won because he is the gold standard. And I wonder if this is the year just because he was able to, like, bring everyone back, basically. It's just Nate Schmidt gone, I think. Like, even if he doesn't do anything at the deadline, even if he doesn't have to maneuver in any way, like, just bring this team back. And if they go to the conference finals again, like, I don't know how you don't give it to him. Yeah, the year he does the least will be the year he finally. Right. Exactly. Yeah. He lost out to Jim Neal who brought in Alex Petrovich and Cody C.C. and well, and Mika Randon. Have you seen their like

their defensive? I mean, yeah, the Randon move obviously big, but. I still don't think it's up to par with what Zito is done. He took from when he got here five years ago, when he took this franchise to where they are now, it's like mind blowing. And he's, I mean, he's gotten credit in terms of the Stanley Cup. He's won it twice now. But credit for from the outside, like, what are we doing, people? All right, I'm done. It almost feels like if he wins this year, it'll be like Leonardo DiCaprio winning for the Revenant,

like kind of like a career lifetime achievement award. There's better things, but he gets his trophy. It's a good one, Ethan. You have Bill Zito stands around, you know. Don Lucheson, thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me, guys. All right, that was great with Dom, man. And yes, Bill Zito sure won the damn trophy.

God damn, let's. we're doing here? Can we just make, like, I just want to clip off Dom saying the Panthers are the most demoralizing playoff team I think I've ever seen or whatever exactly he said, and just like play that on a loop forever. Every time I get mad at the aesthetic for doubting the Panthers and Regression candidate Samson Reinhardt and all that, you know, stuff they say. The five hockey teams that they have played the most in the playoffs, the lightning, the Maple Leafs, the Bruins, the Hurricanes, and the Oilers. Oh, boy. Yeah. It's, it's pretty amazing. I mean, it's just Just thinking back on it, don't you, like, you see the cup days, you know, recently, Roy, and you think back on it.

And it's just unbelievable what they've done the last couple of years. Yeah, the cup is having a great time in Europe right now, man. They're not done. And they don't seem to be done. Just getting started. They're probably just going to do it again next year, right? Like, I mean, that's not a bad, baby. Furnley be more annoyed with us talking about the Panthers because apparently you guys don't think we talk about the rest of the league enough, even though we just did.

Well, the rest of the league needs to start winning some Stanley Cups, dude. I'm sorry. I love talking about the rest of the rest of the league. This show, if we would have been doing the hockey show five years ago, we would have been talking about Tampa. We would have been talking about Colorado. But we're doing the hockey show now. We're talking about Vegas. It is what it is.

I'd say next week, just to piss everybody off, we should just do a segment on like the Sanhooth. Like the, no, not the Islanders. Let's do a segment on the, no, not the Penguins. Who's the most like boring team we could possibly talk about? That just like is right in the middle. Yeah. Let's do a segment on the Seattle Cracken just for no reason next week. Just, okay, we talked to you all about hockey, somebody else besides the Panthers.

Rosie, any closing thoughts? Yes, let me close this with an amazing video, boys. Hit it. Oh, Jesus. Sharky, the San Jose Sharks mascot, got kicked in the face. Is that Celebrini? By a soccer ball. And it does like Celebrity.

No, that's Celebrating. I think that might be Will Smith. Most enough in Mackey Celebrini He even said it's murder So we're very close to it I think we're seven weeks away That's coming Tuesday from opening night Macklin Celebrating and I said Mackey

Because Sam Oskarvich had the cup recently He took it in the new town That was beautiful He brought it to the Sandy Hook News Yeah that was great That's how Panthers-centric we are on this show Is that none of us taught that Yeah

None of us taught that I know it. I didn't want to... I mean, I knew it was wrong. Like, hey, hey, man, it's not Mackey's Maclin. Oh, shit. Let me correct myself because I miss Pantas Hockey.

I miss Hockey. Seven weeks, Roy, I'll be there. I bought my tickets last week. Yeah, I'll be in the press box with Dave. Beautiful. Yeah. All right, so that's the show. We thank you for joining us.

Rosie, thank you for doing whatever it is that you do. I don't know. I know why you're in here because Dave's not here. Dave come back. Probably a bad idea to let me in here. Okay, just because we have to close and we don't have time, but whatever it is what I do, you should know by now what I do.

I know. I was being facetious there, Rose. Bye, everybody. All right. For our Gino and whoever else is in the video studio, though. Jason's over there. He's directing the things that we are doing. Ethan, don't come in here anymore.

David, come back. Rose, thank you. My name is Roy Bellamy. Thank you for watching and listening to the hockey show. We will see you next week. And we'll talk to you as well because we're also on the audio podcast, on me? Smooth, Roy, very smooth.

Very smooth. Very smooth.