The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz - UNDERDOGS: March Madness Bracket Special!

Episode Date: March 18, 2024

Is New Mexico being undervalued? Could Grand Canyon be primed to make a run? Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating, known for predicting March Madness upsets, break down the key Underdog matchup of this year’s tournament. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on underdogs it's our March Madness bracket special we've got all the upset picks you could possibly want. They're real and they're bractacular. The cry goes up both far and near for underdog. Underdogs! Countdown going on right now! Borrow! Up to Shultz! Five seconds left in the game! You believe in merit! Oh yes! By George! The dream is alive!

Underdogs! I guess there's only one thing left to do. Win the whole fucking thing. It's the Underdogs Bracket Special Happy March Madness. It is Monday, the day after selection Sunday. It's our time of year. I'm Jordan Brenner, joined as always by my cohost, Peter Keating. Let's go.

Jordan, I am haggard, I am unshaven. I'm wearing a North Texas t-shirt. These things can only mean one thing, that we're about to get bractacular. I thought it meant it was a day that ended in Y, but sure, that works too. So look, Peter and I wait all year for this. We were put on this earth to project upsets.

We've got our model handy. We've got puns and fun facts and all sorts of information to help you fill out a bracket, make some money line bets, bet some spreads. Let's get into it. You ready? I'm ready. All right. So let's start in the region that I think if there's going to be one bracket that just sort of bursts open with lots of craziness, it's going to be in the Midwest.

Broken busted back. Say that three times fast. Broken busted brackets. Could be. It could be the Midwest. So let's get started there. And Peter, the top upset pick on our board, according to our model, is the sixth seed South Carolina against 11th seed Oregon. We give that about a 43% chance of going through. Tell us why. Well, Jordan, it's interesting because Oregon doesn't really leap out as being a great underdog in any particular way.

Are you saying they're not all they're quacked up to be? Jordan, what I'm saying is South Carolina is not all they're cracked up to be. Look, great season for South Carolina They were right. They were picked last in preseason polls in the SEC nothing to complain about It's just that Jordan. They're not as good as their record the second luckiest team in the country according to Ken Palm They've been nine and three in close games They play at his glacial pace

They take a lot of threes. They are not really good at hitting threes. None of that provides the kind of safety that a giant needs against an underdog. And in our basic power ratings, there's two slots between South Carolina and Oregon. And I think this is true even if you look at other rating systems. These teams are just very close.

Now we have another thing we look at called similarity. And of the 10 most similar games to this matchup, four of them resulted in upsets. The one that I'm really intrigued by is Xavier beating Maryland in 2017. Another 11-6 upset. A lot of similarities among all those teams. So look, these teams are evenly matched.

I don't know what else to say. Right, and we should explain for those of you who maybe aren't as familiar with our bracket breakers work at the Athletic or the Giant Killers work at ESPN what else to say. Right. And we should explain for those of you who maybe aren't as familiar with our bracket breakers work at the athletic or the giant killers work at ESPN before that to qualify. By this point, how can you not be? Really? And shame on you. But if you're not familiar, to qualify as an upset, a bracket breaker game for us, there

has to be a differential of at least five seats. So that's why we don't look at eight, nine games, seven, 10 games. That's why we don't look at a four or five game in the second round. So we're looking at games that are at least supposed to be one team significantly better than the other. As we're going to get to a little bit later, that may not always be the case. And as you mentioned with South Carolina and Oregon, it's certainly not. We've got other significant potential upsets in this region. I've got my eye on the 512 game that's Gonzaga against McNeese State. Our model gives it a 30.8% chance of happening. And to be honest,

we could have had an even bigger upset chance if McNeese had drawn someone other than Gonzaga, who's a pretty safe giant, the way we profile things. McNeese is this rare combination. A lot of times teams that are really good in small conferences are built to beat inferior opponents, right? So they play a more conservative style. They just have more talent than everyone else in their small conference. McNeese somehow dominated their conference and plays a high risk, high reward style that we love, which Will Wade brought from VCU where he was an assistant under Shakhtar Smart. Right, and this isn't easy.

It's hard to dominate your inferior opponents in a small conference and turn around and play the high risk, high reward styles you need to execute well to beat a superior opponent. They've got all the traits to do that. This is Gonzaga, even now Gonzaga's probably better than most people think. I mean, as I said, 5C, they're a powerful team, Jordan.

But let's talk about McNeese for a second, okay? First of all, they're ranked 60th in Ken Palm overall, so they're just a good team, okay? They're a good team. Shahada Wells, excellent guard, he's averaging just a hair below an 18-5 in 5 season. And then they do all the things we like to see out of the possession game, okay? They're really disruptive defensively. They rank sixth in the nation in turnover percentage. They force turnovers in about 23% of opponents' possessions. They protect the ball in offense. They don't turn it over much themselves, giving up only 14% of the time. Such a huge possession advantage. They grab offensive rebound on 32% of their misses.

Right. And they play really slowly, which as we've talked about, the fewer possessions in the game, the less chance for the more talented team to separate itself. So think about that. They're not letting opponents get away from them, but they're also accumulating a lot more possessions in their opponents. It's a huge edge. It's a, it's actually, it's a perfect recipe is what it is.

And you're going to love this. Okay. They have serious chameleon potential. Now, now what is the chameleon? All right. It's quite simple. It's a team that, depending on its environment, can change its stripes a little bit. So picture a team like Harvard in 2013, which had a really good three-point shooting team but didn't have to shoot many

threes to win the Ivy League. Well, against their better opponent, they had to increase their variance. So they took that really good shooting stroke. They took more threes and it worked. They upset New Mexico and Cincinnati in back-to-back tournaments. And you'll see smart teams do that. Think about St. Peter's a couple of years ago. Played slow, did not shoot well, but tournament time came and what happened? They started hitting threes because they started taking threes. They increased their risk in an intelligent way. That's what smart teams do. So McNeese, okay, only took about a third of their shots during the regular season for three-point range.

In today's college basketball, that's not a lot, but they hit 39.4% of them. That's fourth in the nation. So against a better team, we saw this. They played UAB in November, another NCAA tournament team. They beat them by 21, and McNeese went 10 for 19 from three. So if they increase the frequency of threes a little more against Gonzaga, that gives them an added edge.

Look, Gonzaga's big, okay. Graham E.K., Anton Watson inside. That's gonna be a lot for McNeese to handle, but this is a real legitimate 5-12 upset chance. Right, now we're giving it about what, a 30%? 31%. 31% chance, which just shows you, legitimate 512 upset chance. Right, now we're giving it about what, a 30%? 31. 31% chance, which just shows you, like against a weak or vulnerable giant,

against a regular five seed, this would be a 512 upset you'd see coming from a mile away. So it's credit to Gonzaga's basic strength, right? And their work on the boards, I mean, they accumulate possessions themselves, that it's gonna be tough. But our model is saying that even considering Gonzaga's, you know, edge and level of competition, let's say, right? An edge in skill,

there's still a really good chance in this game. So we got one other first round game in this region that also cracks the 30% threshold for an upset. That's Kansas, the four seed against Samford. Peter, another game, the similar games model really likes us. Four of those 10 most similar games ended in upsets, including Florida Gulf Coast. Florida Gulf Coast. VCU. Right, memorable upsets.

And this doesn't even account for Kansas, this is just saying the Kansas team that existed all season long. Right. That doesn't account for the fact that Hunter Dickinson and Kev McCullar are injured and we don't know what kind of shape they'll be in. The latest reports are they're supposed to be back for tournament time, but we can't be sure and we can't be sure how it's going to affect the team.

And in what shape, right? Jordan, let me tell you. Talk about Bucky Ball, please. Well, wait, before we even get to Bucky Ball, there's more bad news for Kansas and it's about their season long play that you just mentioned. Look, most teams that are this good, okay, do something dominant to build possessions. They're either really good at creating takeovers or avoiding turnovers or the offensive glass or defensive rebounding, something, somewhere, right? Kansas is not particularly strong in any of those areas.

I believe that's what we call a generic giant. A generic giant, because what do they do? They ride their superior shooting skills. Now look, Kansas is excellent at two-point shooting and protecting the rim. They're impressive strengths, but they're not good enough to protect an overdog against an underdog that gets really hot or against an off-shooting night. There's no security blanket there. Now, on the other hand, look at Samford. Samford does everything you want, everything you were just talking about, right? They shoot the lights out and take a lot of

threes and force turnovers and they hit the boards. They're a possession building machine. So yes, were we on buckyball months ago? Have we been fans of Samford all season? Yes. Because they're aggressive or fun? No, it drives me crazy. It's like the people used to say Billy Ball with Billy Martin and baseball was about stealing bases. No, it was about taking intelligent risks and so is Bucky Ball. They add risk to add the number and value, they add number, the quantity and value to the,

they amp up their volume and value of their possessions. So what Sanford does. Now, generic giants, okay, these generic giants, you might be saying, well, look, Sanford's three inches shorter on average than Kansas. They're gonna get blown off the court literally. You know, who has Sanford played all season? Well, let me tell you, generic giants have lost in 36%,

not just of all turn-of-the-matches, in 4-13 matchups. Even when the seedings are this wide apart, these giants who don't have possession building strategies in their arsenal have trouble. Also, giants that don't do that against killers with a great style, like Sanford's a sharp shooting killer, they go down about 30% of games.

So even adjusting for all this, this looks like a very dangerous 413 matchup. All right, I wanna get to, before we have to move to the other region, I wanna get to the second round quickly, but before we do that, one last game that we would call not completely crazy actually is is the Akron Creighton matchup the 314. We give Akron about a 20% chance of winning this game. It's largely because Creighton doesn't do any of the things we like to see out of a safe giant. They are wholly reliant on shooting their great shooting team, but they don't do any things like you talked about to give themselves a security blanket. They don't offensive rebound.

They don't force turnovers. They play slowly. Not good traits in Giants. So Creighton is a type of team that could make a deep run if they're hot shooting, but also can make an early exit. You stub your toe once as a great shooting team. You go home for the rest of the year.

Real quick, we don't see a lot out of Tennessee versus St. Peter's. Purdue plays Montana State or Grambling State. If Purdue loses again, they just, they need to play in the NIT next year. Purdue finally got a safe enough slot that they're probably not going to lose in the first round. Right. But real quick, I mean, we've been saying that for years, so God help Matt Painter. Real quick, couple second round games to look at. I'm really intrigued if McNeese gets by, gets by Gonzaga and faces Kansas.

Then they have Kansas. We give that about a 43% chance of happening. The other one that's interesting real quick to touch on is Creighton versus Oregon. We mentioned Creighton not doing the things they need to protect themselves. Oregon is just a pretty good team. We give it about a 39% chance of them as an, if they, again, they have to win their 11-6 game first, but they might make it a double against Creighton, right? The brackets have lined up sneaky good for Oregon,

of all teams. Right, and amazingly, because I thought we like TCU. I thought we liked TCU, but we only give like a, you know, what, a 13%, 14% chance of them beating Purdue. Is this the year Purdue finally, it's just plays like a safe giant? I would love to see TCU with their, talk about intelligent risk-taking. They take all kinds of risks and they're pretty good. And our model doesn't really like the matchup, but I can't go chalk with Purdue, Jordan. I mean, I mean, come on.

Right. Well. I'm wearing a North Texas shirt. Fair enough. All right, so look, Midwest chaos could happen. We'll be back with the West right after this. Underdog, underdog. Underdog, underdog. We're back with more of the underdogs March Madness special. I'm Jordan Brenner.

I believe you meant to say the bractacular. That's the bractacular Peter Kitting. Let's head to the West. All right. This region is where you'll find our biggest upset on the board. Okay. That's right. An upset that even really shouldn't be an upset. You want some air quotes around the word upset there.

Jordan, look, how much time and how much energy and how much money does the selection tournament committee get now? They have sponsorships on it for everything, right? They got one job. Here's how you know if they're doing a bad job. If there is a matchup where if you reverse the seedings, the game would make more sense. What the hell is Clemson doing as a six against New Mexico as an 11?

Look, we've been talking about New Mexico not as a particularly good underdog, just as a good team. For weeks, our model says New Mexico is a top 25 team in the entire country. Now- And so does Ken Palm, by the way. And these teams, right. I mean, they a top 25 team in the entire country. Now, so does Ken Palm, and these teams, right? I mean, they're better straight up than Clemson. So I'm sure betting lines are already starting to reflect this. No, New Mexico is favored in this game.

Now, look, our model gives them a 58% chance of pulling the again, air quote, upset. But you're right. The markets have converged on advanced metrics so well that you're not fooling anyone. And Peter, we have history with games like this in the 11-6 matchup. Yeah, and we have history with the bets converging on the side of the team we'd like to pick as a nerd dog and making them favorites. So what do you do? I mean, you can, you know, are we now betting against ourselves on the money line?

But I'm going to claim this as a win, because like I say, we've been writing about New Mexico for a while as a good value play. And the tournament committee just didn't respect them out in West enough to give them a slot that they earned. But we think New Mexico is about two points better per hundred possessions than Clemson. And Clemson's a terrible giant.

And here's right, we talked about generic giants. Clemson is not dominant either end of the glass or forcing or avoiding turnovers. And they play slow. And they play slow, which constantly puts them in danger. Plus New Mexico, similar game model again, five of the 10 games, including three of the four most similar matchups in tournament history ended in upsets. So there's so many signs. And if that's not enough, you've got Richard Patino coaching, Jalen House, the son of Eddie House, and Jamal Mashburn,

son of Jamal Mashburn. How can he not like the Lobos? Look, we used to call New Mexico one of those schoolyard bullies that would get all these big tall guys, literally elbow their inferior opponents off the court. Wait, wait, there were tall guys in basketball? Tell me more, Peter. Do you remember Sim Bular? I do remember Sim Bular. Wait, wait, there were tall guys in basketball? Tell me more.

Jordan, do you remember Sim Bular? I do remember Sim Bular. Okay, would you call him exceptionally tall? He was. And exceptionally wide? Yes. Okay. So he was the prototypical old New Mexico player. What they do now is they- Are they new New Mexico?

They're new wave in New Mexico. Okay, well on that note, let's move on. There's only one other game that, cause we're gonna talk a little bit more about New Mexico going for it, right Jordan I'll lead wherever you I'll follow where I'll lead wherever you follow or vice versa There's one other game in this draw that that crack that clocks in clacks clucks

Good cook clucking chickens the the chickens who are the chickens in this tournament the Trinity Bantams did very well in the D There's some ospreys. We got some Seahawks. All right. So they covered the Peacocks. Grand Canyon against St. Mary's, that's a 12-5 game and that also is about a 30% upset chance. Look, St. Mary's is an amazing rebounding team, which we generally like to see out of, out of actually Giants and Killers, but their third and offensive rebound in the country and second in defensive rebounding. I don't remember. Do you remember seeing that?

No, it's that excellence at both ends. It's really rare. Mitchell Saxon's a beast at 610, but they did lose Joshua Jefferson to season ending knee injury. But here's the thing. And I'll let you talk about Grand Canyon, your favorite for-profit school in the tournament. They do a lot of things that do I have other. Are there other for-profit schools?

Has Trump University made the field yet? I don't know who else is even for-profit. By the way, I learned they're contesting that status. Oh really? So we are, I am honor bound to point out the Grand Canyon itself doesn't like to be called a for-profit school, but it's been adjudicated and I believe they are.

We won't make fun of them right now because we kind of like them as a killer, right? Yeah, we won't make their money jokes. Look, they're a great combination of offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Another combination you don't often see all that much together. The 30th in country getting their own missed shots. They're 20th in the country at forcing, I'm sorry, 39th in the country at forcing, uh, turnovers.

And they got a, they got a, a player tying grand foster who does everything. I mean, he scores, he rebounds. Great story. And he's got almost two steals a game great story not about 20 points a game six boards about a block and a half a steel And a half he started his career at Kansas then went to Nepal He missed 16 months after collapsing on the court twice right almost dying and having heart surgery It was a close call to his a time recruit. It's really great to see him You know he's an NBA prospect so you know they're going to be intimidated, certainly by St. Mary's. So this is going to be fun.

All right, moving along. The four seed Alabama against Charles, who's number 13. This is the only other game in this region in the first round that cracks a double digit underdog rating or upset rating. This one's really interesting because you know the general thesis on Alabama, amazing offense, terrible defense. They can't stop anyone. They take tons of threes, they offensive rebound and that way they're almost built more like a killer. Mark Sears is hitting 43% from three, but they don't force turnovers. They don't grab defensive rebounds and generally they don't stop you from scoring. Except here's the interesting thing Charleston's like a lesser version

Right there the same thing. They also take tons of threes. There's 16th highest rated taking threes in the whole country They also hit the offensive board. They're a top 50 team in offensive rebounding Unfortunately when you have an uppercase and lowercase versions of the same pattern of teams Statistically that does not bode well for the underdog. I mean, it's like playing your bigger brother. That never works out. Well, and it's, you know, look, everyone's going to be all over the over in this game just because as bad as Alabama is defensively, Charleston's even worse.

I've got to imagine it's going to be baked in already, but as I look for the over under, I mean, how much of a chance do you really give Charleston this game? I think the model has it pegged high at 17%. I mean, there are a couple of similar games. He might, I mean, Duke versus Lehigh in that big upset rates is a similar game. But again, when your strengths are your opponent's strengths, but your opponent does it all better, it's a hard, it's a hard road for an underdog. The over under is 173, which is unheard of in college basketball.

So, you know. That's getting high. I tend to like to bet first half unders as a strategy in the tournament, but I don't know what's happening here. But real quick, our top three seeds look pretty damn safe in the first round. We have UNC is about a 3% chance of losing to either Howard or Wagner.

Arizona, about a 5% chance against Long Beach State. Long Beach State, great story, right? They just about fired their coach and then they went on a run that won the conference tournament so they got a bid. Great story, very little chance against Arizona. And then Baylor Colgate, the 3-14 game, it really is only about an 8% chance. You're not a big fan of Colgate, right? No, Colgate is one of those teams, again, that we call a schoolyard bully.

I want to be clear, we're not criticizing programs that build themselves into conference champions and winners who gain NCAA bids. Teams like Colgate, Vermont, old Bucknell teams, teams like Liberty, right? These teams win 25, 30 games every year, make their tournament. That's successful. It's just that the things you do to get those records don't often translate into tournament success unless you can add, like we've been saying, add some risk to your portfolio, you know?

Diversify your asset class. Colgate does this every year and it's not going to end well against Baylor. Right. And Baylor. Right. And Baylor is a little bit of a better version of Alabama, right? Great offense, questionable defense at times, but I think that I can see them, I can see them making a run in March. I don't know quite why, but they just have. Well, it's because if they hold an opponent even at Bay for a little while, they can destroy them.

And they've got that, look, Jacoby Walters, an NBA player, he was, Misi is a real NBA player at seven feet. I love Ray J. Dennis's game at point guard. Jalen Bridges can shoot it, Jaden Nunn can shoot it. So they're fun to watch. Do you have a pick in the Howard Wagner playing game? Because those are, I wanted to say- You know, I believe I went to an acting class with Howard Wagner.

He was- Those are two fun teams. I mean, Wagner is on the ride, a very enjoyable ride. They're under 500 overall, but those are two fun teams. Can I skip ahead to the second round for a couple matchups that really intrigued me? I wish you would. So we love a good one eight game. Who knows what's going to happen in the Mississippi State, Michigan State game, but UNC is in

trouble, especially if they play Mississippi State. We've liked them as a wounded assassin, a team that gets beat up in conference play for quite some time. But our model gives that about a 32 and a half percent chance of an upset. Five of the 10 similar games in our model ended in an upset there. As I said, Mississippi State is the classic wounded assassin. They're a great offense, a rebounding team, about 35% of their misses. They allow less than 30% three-point shooting. They force turnovers. They're 20th in the country in defense.

They struggle to hold onto the ball and they're terrible shooters, but Carolina doesn't force a lot of turnovers, so they can muck things up a little bit for Carolina. Yeah. I mean, Mississippi State has trouble hitting the water when they fall out of boat. I mean, they're one of the worst shooting teams in the country. However, they do everything else you want an underdog to do. It was comically extreme last year. It's a little less edgy this year. I like that matchup against UNC. Right. And Michigan State, about a 23.5% chance of beating UNC. They're a better team than

they are killer. The question for them, can they dial it up from three? They're a good three-point shooting team. They don't take a lot of them. Now I also know we just said we liked Baylor, but New Mexico, just rating as highly as they do, just on the strength of their power ranking. On a top 25 team in the country, they're going to be a threat in the second round if they pull off the first round upset. And I'm eyeing a Grand Canyon upset of Alabama if they get by there, too. That's about a 22% chance of happening. And I think that maybe under rates Grand Canyon's ability because of Alabama's defensive woes. One other one I want to look at really quick is if Dayton gets

by Nevada, they'd have about a 21% chance of beating Arizona in the second round. Arizona is a great giant profile. They really sort of excel in every area we talk about, rebounding at both ends, turnovers at both ends. But Dayton is the third best three point shooting country, the third best three point shooting team in the country at about 40% and they take a ton of threes. 45% of their shots. They've got Kobe Brea, 49% from three. What does that mean?

It means they have a shooter's chance. Yep. Right? You always have to fear a team that can get hot from three and that's something to keep in mind. Also, Dayton cracked the code. Like when's the last time you saw a team that reliant on three point shooting do so well earlier in the season

that they were considered a lock no matter what. They didn't win the conference. They got blown out of the conference tournament. They still landed a seven seed. Now they have a chance. Look, so we don't, we only have a couple of big time upset projections in the first round, but the second round in this bracket could be really interesting. And you know what's going to be even more fun? The second half of our show, because

we've got a whole half of the bracket as it's known professionally. Peter, I think the South region is the one where we are most against conventional wisdom. We have one big upset here, but another one that a lot of people like that we don't as much, but let's start with our big upset. Texas Tech is a sixth seed playing NC State, an 11th seed who came out of nowhere

to win the ACC tournament, and our model thinks they could keep it going. We give them about a 38% chance of winning this game, right? Look, sometimes when teams from power conferences, which we've been calling wounded assassins who take a lot of hits over the year, then make the tournament in an underdog role, and we've seen a lot of that this year,

sometimes they just start out stronger than teams from smaller conferences, right? I mean, NC State's been playing tough teams all year, and their basic strength is just greater than some of these other teams we've been talking about, like Sanford and McNeese State. It takes a lot to build a killer who's like five or eight points above average into somebody who can compete. Well NC State starts at a

higher level than that. Texas Tech we liked as a giant killer. Oh they've got our guy Grant McCaslin the rat from Texas. And he is slowly as he as is his want bringing that model to Texas Tech. It's not all there yet right? And it's interesting now because all of a sudden, they're kind of in the role of the favorite. So how does this kind of slow, risk-taking, shooting more but not a lot of threes profile fit as a giant? Well, it's okay.

But there's just not, there's not a ginormous gap starting off between this team and Texas Tech doesn't dominate possessions like you want a giant to do. Right. And it's not like state plays a lot like a killer that we love. Look, they do have a low turnover rate, ninth in the country, and they do rank in the top 75 in steel percentage on defense, but they don't shoot a lot of threes. So you look for other reasons why our model is giving us such a big chance and you land on our similar games model. Kaboom, yes.

So here's what's really interesting. Not only did four of the 10 most similar games in tournament history and in an upset, but three of those games were very similar, like wounded assassin types. Again, you had a 2011 Syracuse beating or Syracuse losing to Marquette. I think Marquette was the wounded assassin that one, right? You had 2011 Gonzaga as a wounded assassin upsetting St. John's and in 2015 UCLA as an underdog beating SMU. So this feels like this fits with that motif. And if you just look at this, if you just line up the statistical profiles, right?

You go to some site, you know, the colors will start to match because that UCLA team has interesting similarities to this NC State team. These like teams from very strong conferences that lost some close games that were pretty good but not great, but were good enough to play really well when they got in the tournament. But nobody had DJ Burns, because the man is gonna eat inside. Now, here's a game we're gonna go the opposite way on, okay? James Madison, who we've loved all season long,

is the 12 seed, Wisconsin's a five seed, okay? Lots of people already picking it in their brackets, lots of experts. The money line is James Madison plus 190, which implies about a 35% chance of winning. We only give him about a 24% chance of winning, which shocked me when I saw it, disappointed me. But there are reasons why here. Oh, look, Wisconsin is a type of favorite, a type of top seed that plays a style that can control a game. Normally we don't like to see Giants play at a slow pace

because it means they never establish a lot of separation, but Wisconsin does that as part of this style which is very distinctive. They don't turn the ball over. They grab tons of defensive rebounds. So they accumulate possessions at this steady clip, and it's just a style they can impose on other teams James Madison is a great shooting team, but they play very fast and

and and that's not you know, Wisconsin's gonna be able to you can see scenarios where Wisconsin could just take over and Not have to look back against a team like James man Look, I was surprised mostly because James Madison holds a really nice possession edge in both Mostly because James Madison holds a really nice possession edge in both Turnovers and rebounds which is what we really like out of our best killers I mean they have some chameleon ability like you said they they don't shoot they only shoot about an average number of threes But they hit 36% of them now have they done that have they done that against strong opponents? Well, I don't I haven't seen well, that's the other thing. They haven't played strong. Yeah, that's the biggest That's the biggest right Jay

Look everyone knows James Madison because they opened the season with their win against Michigan State. But the only other two games they played against a top 100 Ken Palm team were both against Appalachian State in their conference and they lost both of them. And that, that, right. So maybe we take them, their statistical profile with a bit of a grain of salt just because they haven't played anyone. It just, sometimes you do well in bracket pools by zigging when everyone else is zagging. And if this is the trendy upset pick and maybe 40, maybe 50% of people in their brackets will say, oh, I'm taking a 12-5.

I hate to say it, the math tells me take Wisconsin here and gain an edge that way. Look, James Madison has won 31 games, right? People are going to see that and jump on it. But the truth is, their high point may have come in that opening night of the season where they knocked off Michigan State. I mean, we were writing a couple of months ago about these big upcoming games. This is the last time we wrote about big upcoming games between Sun Belt rivals like James Madison and App State. James Madison lost both games they played as you just mentioned App State. And so we haven't seen them expand their risk like we've

been talking about successfully. Now let's go to the other end of conventional wisdom here. Okay. Kentucky is getting a lot of final four hype. No one's talking about them playing Oakland. Oakland is plus 700 as a 14 seed against three Kentucky. Those are implied odds about 12 and a half percent winning. We give them almost a 19% chance winning, which shocked me when I saw it. So why is Kentucky vulnerable? Well, our model sees them as overrated, first of all. Only see both our model and Ken Palm says Kentucky is about the 19th best team in the country. And it's easy to see why.

Yeah, I don't think they deserved a three seed to be honest. We know they're talented, but they haven't played to that yet. They don't defend. They're not a top hundred team on defense. Correct. And that might, maybe that ought to disqualify you from being a top three seed. Well, it's very Alabama-ish, but they don't force turnovers. They're below average in rebounding team at both ends. Look, we know how talented they are.

They shoot the heck out of the ball from three point range. Their freshman guards, Dillingham, Shepard, they're outstanding. But this has cropped up as a weakness time and time again. And for everyone just to say, well, Kentucky is going to figure it out in the tournament. It's lazy. Now Oakland doesn't have one trait that stands out, but they play slow enough. They shoot an above average number of threes. They grab an above average offensive rebound rate. They've got Trey Townsend, who is a four-year player at six, seven. The average is 17, eight, and three. Does a little bit of everything. And they did play a lot of tough teams early in the year and hung with them. They lost to Illinois by 11, Drake by eight. They beat Xavier. They lost to-

Exactly right. Ohio State by six. I'm just saying nobody's talking about this game. If I could put on my propeller cap for one second. Yeah, do it, nerd. Think about a good team and a not so good team playing and think about how any team does over time. Their scoring is gonna be in a bell curve, okay, with the hump in the middle.

Where the bell curves overlap between the two teams, that's the area where the worst team can win. So if you can expand that curve, right? If you can play, take on a little more risk and you have a good night, if you can keep things slow, if you can garble out of your own missed shots, if you can do the things that Oakland does all at once, you got a shot against a team like Kentucky

who's gonna let you score. So quickly looking at the other first round matchups in this region, we give Vermont about a 16, 17% chance against Duke, but Vermont kind of profiles as a schoolyard bully in their style. They do shoot a good number of threes, but Duke typically clamps down on the arc very well. The way you want to Duke is to challenge their rim protection.

Right. This is exactly right. I mean, Vermont is the classic, the best probably example of the entire field of a team that has dominated its own small conference. John Becker's Vermont team is 46 and four in conference play over the past three seasons. They never lose inside their conference. That's because they grab every defensive rebound. they never make mistakes, but they don't play risky ball.

Now they do take a lot of threes. One of these years, Vermont's going to get in the tournament, hit a ton of threes and surprise people. But against Duke, I don't, I mean, this is, this is a bad matchup for Vermont. Yeah. So, so real quick, the two other first round matchups in the region, we don't see Houston having any trouble with Longwood in the force in the, in the one 16 game, about a 4% upset chance. Marquette only about a 9% chance of losing to Western Kentucky in the 15 seat. But the second round is super

interesting. Let's start with Marquette. Okay. They're going to be in a situation when they play either Florida as a seven seed or Boise state as a 10. Our model gives both of those upset chances higher than 30% about 33% for Florida, 35.6% for Boise State. Real quick, the Florida game, five of 10 similar games. Right. Have ended in upsets. Florida's seventh in the country in offensive rebounding.

Marquette's a really bad rebounding team at both ends. Boise State, completely different, takes a load of threes. But five of the 10 most similar games between Boise State and Marquette have also ended in upsets. Marquette's going to face a tough second round opponent. Right. While we're talking about five of 10, you've got the same situation in a potential NC State Kentucky game. We give that about a 36% chance of an upset. So that's one to keep an eye on as well. If you're going to, if you're going to take State to win in the first round, maybe you get a little, a little risky and take him. And then, Right. As with Oregon, the break it, the brackets have broken sneaky good for

North Carolina state of all teams. And then real quick, the one eight or the one nine game, both about a 20% chance of happening if it's Houston versus Nebraska. You got about a 21.6% chance of happening. Nebraska shoots a lot of threes, even though Houston generally profiles as a very safe giant four of 10 similar games and that have ended an upset. Texas A&M. All right, the game we're dying to see. Yeah. Houston versus Texas A&M, the best offensive rebounding in the country, team in the country.

They can't shoot. Not only can't they shoot, they'll be facing a defensive team unlike any they faced in Texas A&M. They will not make a shot off the off of initial offensive possession. But Houston's one weakness is defensive rebounding. So so let me say this, Texas A&M is literally going to get a lot of chances in that game if it comes to pass. Literally they just need to throw the ball at the hoop because they won't make it anyway. But they will get the ball back. Try to get 30 putbacks. Keep shooting till you get putbacks, yes. Just for the, just the science of it.

The beauty, we need to see that game. Okay. And on that note, let's take another break and we'll be back with the final region, the East after this. We're back and let's head to the east, which I think is looking like the chalkiest region right now. Chalky but still interesting. Oh, everything's interesting when you're in the room. But let's let's let's break this down.

The other interesting, by the way, is that you have three of the four final four teams from last year in this region. All in one region. Yeah, UConn, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic. But let's start with our likeliest upset actually involves one of those teams. It's the 5-12 game between San Diego State and UAB. Model gives it about a 28% chance of ending in an upset. You know, Peter, San Diego State, they still play slow.

They still have a top 10 defense. Yep. Still an above average offensive rebounding team. You know, Jedan Ladea is taking a star turn, but you know, they allow lots of threes, but a low percentage from three. And that's dangerous because most coaches will tell you, and most analytics folks will tell you, you can control how often a team shoots from three. It's harder to control how well they shoot from three. So they're giving a team a shooter's chance to come in and knock them off. In that sense, it's a pretty good matchup for San Diego State because UAB does not take

many threes. They're also just 202nd in the country in defensive efficiency, but they do grab a lot of offensive rebounds. They're in the top 25 team in offensive rebounding. And I have to say, you know, in the 10 most similar games to this matchup, five have resulted in upsets. It's real. That's to me the story of what we're seeing in the model this year is the number of times we're on first glance, the traditional statistical harbor juniors of an upset maybe aren't apparent, but when you dig deeper, these similar games are popping up and popping up. And it's four of the top five, Peter. Yeah. And the one that I liked is NC State over Georgetown in 2012. That that rings the come

with some of these same bells, right? Yeah. Because you have an underdog that's unusually effective at offensive rebounding. And that describes UAB. Let's go to the 611 game, BYU against Duquesne. Yes, yes, Duquesne coming off the game against VCU, which was exciting because nobody could score. Well, not only was it exciting, it was also exciting because neither team was Richmond. Well, you know.

Sorry, Spider, Spider fans were very angry at us when we mentioned that they, even though they were winning the conference, they were not the best potential killer in the Atlantic 10. All right, so for anybody who's watching or listening who may be 90 like I am, I've been a Richmond fan since Justin Harper took care of Kenneth Fareed in the classic 12, 13 seed face-off, what was that, 2011?

Okay, or 2010? So we bow to nobody and stand behind nobody on the line of giving respect to Chris Mooney and Richmond. But look, Richmond's been playing puff balls for a couple of years now and they paid the price. Yep. So the actual team that emerged, you came. Look, we've been talking at BYU actually for a while. We love them more as a killer than a giant, to be honest. They take- Jordan, you're going to say the same thing. Half their shots are threes. How can we not love them?

Yeah, they take all the threes. 50.7% of shots. They're a good rebounding team at both ends, but they don't force turnovers. And the big thing with BYU, they started 12 and one. They're 11 and nine since then. Granted, they're now a big 12 team. Do you remember way back when the season started,

I was trying to impress our producer, Sarah McCrory. You said, who's leading the country in three point attempts as a percentage of field goal attempts. I had no idea, but I guess BYU. I was off, but only by one spot. Yeah, I'm glad you have that moment to lean on. Duquesne is all defense, Peter. They're 28th overall.

Well, they have to be Jordan. They can't shoot. Right, so it's interesting, right? And they're 166th on offense, but they forced turnovers on means. 19.5% of possessions. They've got Jimmy Clark who played two years that way for it, VCU. Yes.

Okay. And who's 14th in the nation of steal rate. So they have the ability to be a little bit disruptive. They take a good number of threes. They don't hit them at a high rate. So maybe if they have an out of body experience. They're 14th in the country in steals, which is, which, which ask Abilene Christian. I mean, it'll get you into games against big favorites and you'll have a chance if you're that good at disrupting the opponent's offense. And this is where the upsets

go to die. The rest of the first round in this region. Let's talk for a second about Auburn versus Yale because it's actually noteworthy that a 413 game only has an upset percentage chance of 5%. And part of this is that the Ivy League didn't get either of its two best killers in, that's Princeton or Cornell. But part of this also is just, man, advanced analytics love Auburn. Yeah. I mean, to our model and to other statistical models, Auburn's a top five team in the country, right? And you're right about Yale. Great program, consistent program, but their key strength year in, year out, whoever they recruit is usually offensive rebounding,

which they're okay at this year. They just happen to get in the tournament. I mean, it would have been a lot. Well, they have some schoolyard bully characteristics this year, right? They really hold onto the ball well and they really rebound at the defensive end. Yes, but I mean- You have to get a stop to get a defensive rebound. Auburn's 10th in the country in offense, fourth in defense. They play fast.

They're not great in any one area, but they're really deep. They're slightly above average offensive rebounding team. They force turnovers. They hold onto the ball. Also if you're going to build a program like Yale to dominate an inferior conference, you have to dominate the conference. As we just talked about the Richmond, they didn't, they just happened to be the last team standing. Cornell or Princeton would have been a lot more fun just bombing away against a team

like Auburn. Auburn's going to clamp down on these guys. Right. Illinois, third seed against Morehead State, 14th seed. This is about a 9.6% chance of happening. Illinois is another one of those teams that we're seeing this year, which are, they're fun in that it's, they're much more offense focused than defense focused. The game's changing a little bit. I'm excited to get rid of the, you know, 55, 51 grinder games, but I don't know. Illinois is getting a lot of hype for winning the big 10. Look, they have the ability to score in isolation on anyone between Marcus DeMask, Terrence Shannon,

Coleman Hawkins picking and popping. They're gonna try to outscore you, but their defense is pedestrian at best, 93rd in the country. But Jordan, in this particular matchup, Morehead State ranks 278th in the country at keeping the ball, avoiding turnovers, and 285th enforcing turnovers.

Yes, they play slow. Yes, they take a lot of threes. But if you can't hang onto the ball, avoiding turnovers and 285th enforcing turnovers. Yes, they play slow. Yes, they take a lot of threes. But if you can't hang on to the ball and you can't grab the ball occasionally from the other team, you're not going to beat a better team. It's a desperate time for Morehead State. Fun player to watch in this game, Riley Minix. He was an NAIA player. Came to Morehead as a grad student this year and at 6'7", he's averaging about 21 and 10 with more than a block and a steal per game. It's a cool story. It'll be fun to watch him. Yeah, you know, I'll tell you, I talked up Jani Broome when he was at Morehead State

a couple of years ago in our pieces we were writing. Of course they immediately transferred. So let's hope the players we're talking about worth watching on these underdog teams stay with them a little bit. Last two first round matchups, Iowa State, the two seed against South Dakota State, the 15 only about a 5% chance and Yukon the one against, against South Dakota State, the 15, only about a 5% chance. And Yukon, the one against Stetson, a 16, only about a 16% chance. I wouldn't waste any time on those. But Peter.

16 seeds are very weak this year, Jordan. Peter, are we seeing anything popping in the second round for a little bit of chaos? Well, I'm not going to pick Duquesne to make the, I mean, would you, would you pick Duquesne to make the, I mean, would you, would you pick Duquesne to make the Sweet 16? I mean, look, it is our best upset percentage in the second round, right? They've got a, what, about a 25, 24% chance of beating Illinois. We talked again about Duquesne forcing turnovers. That's not, I don't see Illinois coughing the ball off that much against them, but it's

at least a live dog. I think the one you got to watch out for is Florida Atlantic and eight seed against UConn. Yeah. I mean, FAU is above average in stealing, keeps things, keeps opponents very disrupted. I think their top 50 team in offensive rebound, and they got enough tools there to cause a better team some trouble. Yeah, you're still waiting for them to play like last year, like in their final four run,

which really hasn't fully happened yet. UConn's only real flaw is that they play slow and don't force turnovers. So theoretically that should give Florida Atlantic some bites of the apple. Everyone's on the UConn bandwagon to the point where it feels like a foregone conclusion. And let's not forget, by the way, this is the year where team after team kept losing

on the road to unranked teams, right? Like the highest, the best teams. This has been, for us to suddenly act like this tournament is going to be just all chalk. And if I watch bracketology and I see everyone picking one, twos and threes seeds in the final four, that's not how it's been playing out in recent years. There's too much chaos for the transfer portal and everything like that. Yes, UConn's really good, but like this is not like a UConn versus the field situation. But it's also people are biased towards things that just happened.

And the conference tournaments get huge publicity. They're on national TV. Everybody sees them. It's quite possible you can like offer commentary on the big tournament after just watching this past week. Okay, so some of these teams did very well in their conference tournaments. There's actually much less of a relationship

between conference tournament performance and NCAA tournament performance than anybody thinks. So you gotta almost put your mind back to where things were seven or 10 days ago or two weeks ago. I don't wanna go on a rant here, but like Jay Williams kept talking about all these conference tournament champions being in Yukon's region. Well, who would you rather have the conference tournament champion of some of those conferences like Illinois or the regular

season champion like Purdue? Like there are better teams in all those conferences. Real quick second round. I think Iowa State may be in a little look, our model likes them a lot, but they may have a little bit of a tough time with either Washington State or Drake. Both are just below about a 20% chance of happening. The Iowa State, Washington State game, three of 10 similar games in an upset. The Drake, two of 10. Drake's the best defensive rebounding team in the country and their 14th best at avoiding turnovers, which is really interesting against, against Iowa State State, which will which will force you to turn it over. I want to mention I want to go back to something you mentioned before about how sometimes it's

important to avoid picking trendy upsets. Sometimes you got to go with the chalk. Also talked about how statistical models love Auburn. You know, in the first round matchup, similar games estimates like UAB against Auburn, we see only 11% chance of UAB being able to beat Auburn. Auburn's, if you don't mind, you know, if you're looking at chalk, I mean, Auburn's, if you go with the machines, Auburn's a really dangerous team in this entire bracket. In fact, if you.

Entire region. I would not call you crazy if you want to take your shot at UConn through Auburn. Right. In the Sweet 16. Right. So as we're talking about the Sweet 16 and beyond, I do want to look at teams that are capable of making a deep run like we've talked about in past years. We saw it last year with San Diego State, Florida, Atlantic, coming more and more common. So let's take a closer look at some of the teams we like that could make a real run and win three, maybe four games in this tournament as, as on Harold the teams. Peter, this is where I'm going to have to ask you to talk about New Mexico again. How far do you think they can get this thing rolling

if they beat Clemson? Well, look, I'd say it again. Our model thinks they're one of the 25 top teams in the country and they're just a good team. They're a good value play. Now, good value play mean you make it past two rounds? I'm not sure. But I do think we're onto something here with power conference teams in those low slots, right? I do think the team that so quote unquote gets hot, the team that just brings it all together and plays well,

that starts from a higher level than your tiniest program's best teams, right, can go on a run. And we've seen that again. So this idea, again, we keep saying wounded assassin with that. So look at Ferencys State or Oregon. Those are teams. And I'd also mentioned Texas Tech. Well, let's stick on Oregon for a second, okay? Let's not do the laundry list here. Let's dig in a little bit. Oregon, right? Like, I think this is one of those, we've talked a lot about that sometimes

it's just worth picking against teams and it is worth picking for teams. And we've talked about South Carolina's weaknesses. We've talked about Creighton's weaknesses. We could wake up and see Oregon in a sweet 16 without sort of realizing that they were ever that good, right? That's exactly right.

I mean, like we said, the matchups are breaking well for them. Right, now the flip side of that is Mc ever that good, right? That's exactly right. I mean, like we said, the matchups are breaking well for them. Right, now the flip side of that is McNeese State, who I think got a, look, we talked to Gonzaga's probably a tougher five than some of the others that could have drawn, but if they can get by there, they suddenly have over 40% chance of beating Kansas

if they even survive Samford, and then suddenly, man, my mouth is watering, if they somehow make it out of the first weekend, and then we've got a sweet 16 matchup between Purdue and McNeese State. And suddenly, man, my mouth is watering if they somehow make it out of the first weekend. And then we've got a sweet 16 matchup between Purdue and McNeese State. So we could talk all we want about Texas A&M, but I think the likelier dream matchup that we're all waiting for here in bracket breaker central is involving Purdue in a potential upset against the Cowboys.

Right. I mean, look, Purdue, we're going to doubt until they prove us otherwise. They in Virginia, man, you know, Virginia won its national title and they started losing the favorites again. But you have to be skeptical. And I can see McNeese pressuring those guards, mucking it up somehow with some funky defensive strategy that Will Wade cooks up to frustrate Zach Eadie. I mean, there's a lot that has to happen for them to get to that point, but maybe there's a magical run left in them. So we agree that of the double digit underdog superstars, McNeese, Samford, Grand Canyon,

that McNeese has the best shot to make a deep run, I think, right? I think so. You know, Grand Canyon also has some favorable matchups like we talked about as well, especially if they get Alabama in the next round, Alabama's defense is gonna be exposed. And look, if you had to pick a national champion, like I said, outside of the top three seeds, yours is Auburn? Yes.

Yours is Auburn? I'll have to say yes. Yeah, I think that's a strong pick. I mean, maybe Duke gets Caleb Foster back and things come up, but man, they gotta play with a little more energy and a little more drive. Look. I think they'll get it back together after this.

I think that there's a good chance they're going to come out and leave nothing to chance against Vermont, which could be a pesky opponent. I just think people are underrating how much losing Caleb Foster has hurt, and I don't know that he'll be back. But Vermont's an opponent you got to prepare and a prepared Duke is gonna be tough Duke. That's right. And we'll be back with lots of stuff on the athletic. Read our writing there.

We've got a women's show coming up tomorrow. Until then, Jordan, Peter, enjoy the madness. you