The David Pakman Show - 10/2/24: VP debate pathetic but won't move the needle

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

-- On the Show: -- A deep dive into the future of MAGA depending on which scenario plays out this November, a Trump win, a narrow Trump loss, and a major Trump blowout by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz -- The VP debate is mostly uneventful but punctuated with some absurd moments, including JD Vance refusing to answer Tim Walz's simple question about whether Donald Trump lost the 2020 election -- Post-debate surveys confirm that the VP debate will have essentially no impact whatsoever on the 2024 election -- Donald Trump Jr is interviewed after the VP debate by CNN's Kaitlan Collins and it does not go well for him -- Fox News anchors can do nothing but attacks the moderators of the CBS VP debate after its conclusion -- Donald Trump visibly struggles to stand and struggles to read during an event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin -- A terrified Donald Trump has cancelled a scheduled 60 Minutes interview with Scott Pelley -- Donald Trump disrespects 100 injured troops, saying they merely "had headaches," during a Q&A gone wrong -- On the Bonus Show: Ted Cruz is begging for money as his Democratic challenger Colin Allred closes in, thousands previously purged from Georgia's voter rolls re-register after a Kamala Harris rally, David attempts to explain the mysterious return of audio problems, much more... 🧠 Try Brain.fm totally free for a month at https://brain.fm/pakman  🛏️ Eight Sleep: Get $350 OFF the Pod 4 Ultra at https://eightsleep.com/pakman 🥦 Lumen lets you master your metabolism. GET 15% OFF at https://lumen.me/pakman 👩‍❤️‍👨 Try the Paired App FREE for 7 days and get 25% OFF at https://paired.com/pakman ✉️ StartMail: Get 50% OFF a year subscription at https://startmail.com/pakman 😁 Zippix Toothpicks: Code PAKMAN10 saves you 10% at https://zippixtoothpicks.com  -- Become a Member: https://www.davidpakman.com/membership -- Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/davidpakmanshow -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow -- Pakman Discord: https://www.davidpakman.com/discord -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow -- Leave a Voicemail: (219)-2DAVIDP

Speaker 1 Speaker 1 Welcome, everybody. Last night's vice presidential debate between J.D. Vance and Tim Walls was, in a sense, the most normal debate we've had in a long time. And at the same time, a reminder of why J.D. Vance should not be allowed to get within a heartbeat of the presidency and a reminder of Trump himself having no business being anywhere near the Oval Office as a threat to democracy and must be denied for more years in the White House. Tim Walz emphasized this sort of pragmatic solutions oriented perspective that he has

espoused as governor. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance wouldn't even answer the question. Did Trump lose the 2020 election? I'm skipping right to the moment of the night before we get to other aspects of this. This was towards the end of the debate. This was a disaster for J.D. Vance. Everyone tonight and I'm going to thank Senator Vance. I think this is the conversation they want to hear. And I think there's a lot of agreement. This is one that we are miles apart on. This was a threat to our democracy in a way that we had not seen. And it manifested itself because of

Donald Trump's inability to say he is still saying he didn't lose the election. I would just say, did he lose the 2020 election? Tim, I'm focused on the future. Did Kamala Harris censor Americans from speaking their mind in the wake of the 2020 COVID situation? That is a damning non-answer. It's a damning non-answer for you to not talk about censorship. Obviously, Donald Trump and I think that there were problems in 2020. We've talked about it. I'm happy to talk about it further. But you guys attack us for not believing in democracy. The most sacred right under the United States democracy is the First Amendment. You yourself have said there's no First Amendment right to misinformation.

Kamala Harris wants to threaten the government. So J.D. Vance not answering the moment of the night. It's been almost four years and J.D. Vance still can't just say Trump lost. We're going to win this time. But Trump lost. And that's why we're here today. That moment was uniquely disqualifying. You don't even need to see the other 100 minutes of this debate because this moment alone tells you most of what you need to know about J.D. Vance. Now let's not just end the analysis there. Let's keep going. This was not the explosive and disastrous debate that we saw between Donald Trump and

Kamala Harris. And in fact, Tim Walz started off shaky. He did visibly. So the first half of the debate up until that first commercial break really was a draw. Now, sure, J.D. Vance lied constantly. But thinking about it as the average voter would, if the debate was simply the first 45 minutes and then that was it, I would tell you, I don't think either candidate really won in the second half. Walls kind of came to life and really exposed J.D. Vance for what he is, which is a flip flopping hypocrite, terrified of getting on Donald Trump's bad side, concerned primarily

with an atavistic attraction to as much power as he can get. And he's willing to say, do or suck up to whoever it will take to get that power. Vance also didn't really answer almost any of the questions. Here's one example. Would you again seek to challenge this year's election results, even if every governor certifies the results? I'll give you two minutes. Well, Nora, first of all, I think that we're focused on the future. Speaker 2 And that was essentially the way he handled every direct question. Now, Tim Walz also did not answer every question directly. And we're going to talk about that. But J.D. Vance's entire presence at this debate was embarrassing when the topic of gun safety regulations came up. J.D. Vance touted out this old you've got to lock the doors better.

Oh, my goodness. We have to increase security in our schools. We have to make the doors lock better. We have to make the doors stronger. We've got to make the windows stronger. And of course, we've got to increase school resource officers because the idea that we can magically wave a wand and take guns out of the hands of bad guys, it just doesn't fit with recent experience. So we've got to make our schools safer.

And I think we've got to have some common sense, bipartisan solutions. It's weird when he brings up windows. I looked and I wasn't able to find any school shooting incident where the strength of the windows was a factor. Now, I guess maybe you would argue if you if you hardened the doors, the shooters will try to come in through the window or it just doesn't make any sense. And this set up what I believe was Tim Wall's second best moment of the night, which was when Tim Wall said, listen, you can talk about all this other stuff, but sometimes it's just the guns. listen, you can talk about all this other stuff, but

sometimes it's just the guns. Governor, you previously opposed an assault weapons ban, but it's only later in your political career. Did you change your position? Why? I sat in that office with those Sandy Hook parents. I've become friends with school shooters. I've seen it look the NRA.

I was an NRA guy for a long time. They used to teach gun safety. I'm of an age where my shotgun was in my car so I could pheasant hunt after football practice. That's not where we live today. And several things I want to mention on this is talking about cities and where it's at. The number one where the most firearm deaths happen in Minnesota are rural suicides. And we have an epidemic of children getting guns and shooting themselves. And so we have and we should look at all of the issues, making sure folks have health care and all that. But I want to be very careful. This idea of stigmatizing mental health just because you have a mental health issue doesn't mean you're violent.

And I think what we end up doing is we start looking for a scapegoat. Sometimes it just is the guns. It's just the guns. And there are things that you can do about it. But I do think that this is one. And I think this is a healthy conversation. So a very good moment for Tim Walls. If you're watching, you might have noticed that J.D. Vance kept looking over to his right maybe 40 or 50 times during the debate when Tim Walls was speaking. Vance seemed distracted by the countdown clock that counted down how much time they had left. And he seemed primarily preoccupied with that rather than the substance of the debate.

Another good moment for Walz was Walz going after Trump for when Trump in the other debate against Kamala Harris, when he was asked about his health care plan, said, well, I don't have a plan, but I have concepts of a plan. Look, this issue. And when Donald Trump said I've got a concept of a plan, it cracked me up as a fourth grade teacher because my kids would have never given me that. But what Senator Vance just explained might be worse than a concept, because what he explained is pre Obamacare.

And I'll make this as simple as possible because I have done this for a long time. What they're saying is, if you're healthy, why should you be paying more? So what they're going to do is let insurance companies pick who they insure, because guess what happens? You pay your premium. It's not much. They figure they're not going to have to pay out to you. But those of you a little older, gray, you know, got cancer, you're going to get kicked out of it. That's why the system didn't work. Kamala Harris will protect and enhance the ACA. The entire health care portion of the debate was very bad for J.D. Vance because he simultaneously defended aspects that we only have in law because of Obamacare while attacking Obamacare and thanking Trump for reinforcing Obamacare, even though what Trump did actually hurt Obamacare by eliminating the individual

mandate. It was just an avert. It's like he just spit on a piece of paper, a verbal inkblot of sorts. And Tim Wall's doing a good job there. Now, ultimately, the microphone cutting was invoked only one time. And I'll play that moment for you. For our viewers, Springfield, Ohio, does have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status, temporary protected.

Well, but thank you, Senator. We have so much to get to. Margaret, I think it's important to turn out of the economy. Margaret, the rules were that you guys weren't going to fact check. And since you're fact checking me, I think it's important to say what's actually going on. So there's an application called the CBP One app where you can go on as an illegal migrant, apply for asylum or apply for parole and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand. That is not a person coming in, applying for a green card, and waiting for 10 years. That is the facilitation of illegal immigration, Margaret, by our own leadership.

Thank you, Senator, for describing the legal process. We have so much to get to, Senator. Those laws have been on the books since 1990. Thank you, gentlemen. The CBP1 app has not been on the books since 1990. It's something that there is. Gentlemen, the audience can't hear you because your mics are cut. We have so much we want to get to.

All right. So invoking the mic cutting only once. And then finally, I did want to play Tim Walz's closing statement. I thought it was quite good. Well, thank you, Senator Vance. Thank you to CBS News. And most importantly, thank you to all of you. If you're still up and the folks who miss dancing with our stars, I appreciate it. But look, the support of the democracy matters. It matters that you're here. And I'm as surprised as anybody of this coalition that Kamala Harris has built

from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney to Taylor Swift and a whole bunch of folks in between there. And they don't all agree on everything, but they are truly optimistic people. They believe in a positive future of this country and one where our politics can be better than it is. And I have to tell you that that better than it is, is the sense of optimism that there can be an opportunity economy that works for everyone, not just to get by, but to get ahead. And the idea that freedom really means something, not the freedom of government to be in your bedroom or exam room, but the freedom for you to make choices about yourself. Now, look, we all know who Donald

Trump is. He's told us. And as Maya Angelou said, believe him when he told you that. His first inaugural address talked about American carnage. And then he spent four years trying to maybe do that. Senator Vance tonight made it clear he will stand with Donald Trump's agenda. He will continue to push down that road. Excuse me. Kamala Harris gives us a different option. Now, I'll have to tell you, I'm going to be careful about the quotes, but there's one that Senator Vance said that does resonate Excuse me. Kamala Harris gives us a different option. Now, I'll have to tell you,

I'm going to be careful about the quotes, but there's one that Senator Vance said that does resonate with me. He said, Donald Trump makes the people I care about afraid. A lot of America feels that way. We don't need to be afraid. Franklin Roosevelt was right. All we have to fear is fear itself. Kamala Harris is bringing us a new way forward. She's bringing us a politics of joy. She's bringing real solutions for the middle class. And she's centering you at the heart of that, all the while asking everyone, join this movement, make your voices heard. Let's look for a new day where everybody gets that opportunity and everybody gets a chance to thrive. All right. So the postgame analysis from some in the corporate media was J.D. Vance won this debate because he was smoother and he performed

better. And this is a version of despite lying shamelessly, he did it confidently and in an articulate way. That's not really the smart take that you think it is in corporate media. And the American people didn't fall for it, as you're going to see in a second when we look at the reactions to this debate from from voters. But I'll be the first to admit he was smoother for much of the debate. His makeup was better. His eyeliner was much better than Tim Walz's. His mascara was on point. The blush, the eye shadow. Yes, there was a way in which the optics for J.D. Vance were better, but the American people didn't fall for it.

And the only way a person can conclude J.D. Vance won the debate is if they care only about optics and delivery and not substance. Sadly, that does encompass a bunch of the voting population. But the results of the post debate polls did not favor J.D. And that's what I want to talk about next. Ultimately, this is not a debate that will move the needle. Let's dig into that a little more. Who won last night's vice presidential debate?

Corporate media and many had the hot take that J.D. was more articulate and smooth and whatever. As I said earlier, his makeup was better. He was smoother during much of the debate, but he lied and didn't answer questions. And the American people don't seem to have fallen for it. At the same time, Tim Wall's performance was fine, but he didn't score any serious blows either other than getting J.D. to not answer who won the 2020 election, which was a great moment. But let's take a look at the results in terms of polling done after the debate. CNN

asked among debate watchers who won the debate. Fifty one percent said J.D. Vance. Forty nine percent said Tim Walls. Not a major victory for either. CBS did an insta poll of who won. Forty two percent believe that J.D. Vance won. Forty one percent believe that Tim Walz won and 17 percent believed it was a tie. That is a complete and total wash on the question by CNN. Did Wall is Wall's qualified to serve as vice president before the debate? Sixty two percent believed Walls is qualified to serve after the debate. Sixty five percent believe Walls is qualified to serve after the debate. Sixty five percent believe Walls is qualified to serve a very, very modest change. And then as far as favorability, based on a CBS News YouGov poll, both candidates improve

their favorability. Tim Walls gained eight points in favorability going from 52 to 60 during the debate. And J.D. Vance gained nine points of favorability going from 40 to 49 percent. So this was let's back up. In general, VP debates don't move the needle. If one candidate has a disastrously undeniably bad performance, yes, it can move the needle. Normally, you would not expect that. The instant polling showing this thing was basically a wash, very different from what we saw after the Trump Harris debate signals or reinforces to me that this won't have an impact. As a reminder, going into yesterday's debate,

Kamala Harris was leading by two in the RealClearPolitics average of national polling and was leading by two point six in the five thirty eight average. I do not expect those numbers to move much at all. But I want to hear from you if you believe that last night's debate will move the needle, will have an impact. Email info at David Pakman dot com. Let me know why I'm just not seeing it in the data. Let's take a quick break. Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube. After the break, we will look at Don Jr.'s disastrous post-debate interview. We will look at the furious folks over at Fox News saying the moderators, the moderators and now it can elevate your head automatically. Pod for ultra can cool down each side of the bed to 20 degrees below room temperature,

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The David Pakman show depends and exists only thanks to the generous support of our viewers and our listeners. Get the full experience by signing up at join Pacman dot com. No matter what happens in November, if Kamala Harris wins, then the work will really get going. And if Kamala Harris loses, we are going to be playing very high stakes defense for four years. Either way, we do need strong, independent, progressive media. This is a show.

Listen, we could have gone in a different direction. I could have gone and found 10 editors micromanaging every word I say at some corporate media outlet. That is not this program. The program is simply what do I believe? What do I want to talk about each day? And we have that independence thanks to people who sign up for membership. Grab a membership at join Pacman dot com and you can use the coupon code Save Democracy 24 for a sizable discount off of the cost of your subscription. A truly Kafka esque moment after the debate last night in the spin room, CNN's Caitlin Collins interviewed Donald Trump Jr. Jr. in his continued effort to blame the media and

Democrats and moderators of debates and everybody else for the two assassination attempts against Donald Trump, Don Junior says, well, when people call my dad Hitler on TV, that causes violence against him. The one problem with this is that Donald Trump's own running mate, J.D. Vance, previously referred to Trump as being America's Hitler. And it gets really awkward when Caitlin Collins reminds Junior of the environment wasn't just created by Donald Trump. But can I say you can't blame and no one wants everyone wants your dad to be safe.

No one wants the threats against his life to happen. But you can't blame the media for those threats. There's been no evidence. Someone else drove those and allows people to have a platform to call someone literally Hitler every day for nine years. It creates it. Whether you want to believe it or not, that's a fact. But as you know, J.D. Vance once likened your dad to Hitler as well. He questioned if he was America's Hitler. But I want to talk about the debate. It's a little awkward when you go those who use the term Hitler in the same sentence as talking about my dad, they are

responsible for all the violence. Oh, you mean like the guy he picked to run alongside him? They want to claim that what the left says about Trump incites violence against him. But the vast majority of the violent rhetoric is coming from them. Just yesterday, Donald Trump said that Kamala Harris has murdered people. I'm going to play that for you later on today. And they want to argue that when when one of us says, you know, I'm concerned about the pillars of democracy, if Trump wins, you're inciting people with guns to go and shoot him. Meanwhile, Trump goes, Kamala's murdering

people. And now there's this sort of sweet irony of the fact that J.D. Vance himself once deployed the Hitler analogy to Trump himself before he did a 180 because he decided, actually, I would love to be Donald Trump's running mate. Now, the interview did not get any better. Here is Caitlin Collins reminding Don Jr. that when Trump was in office, Iran apparently wasn't that scared since they went after American troops. Take a listen to this because a weak America is good for Russia. A weak America is good for Iran and a weak America is great for China, all of whom are chomping at the bit for a Harris waltz administration and the continuation of the Biden policies that have failed America for the last three and a half.

Well, and I should know when you talk about Iran, I mean, Iran did hit American troops when your dad was in office. I covered that. And today he was asked about that. He likened the traumatic brain injuries to headaches. But but on the debate itself. And that is a brutal, brutal anvil like fact check from Caitlin Collins. It is absolutely the case that Iran certainly wasn't so scared of Trump that it didn't attack American service members. It did indeed. And

Donald Trump did write off the PTSD of those military service members by saying what they had headaches. I'll play that clip for you a little bit later as well. Finally, Caitlin Collins brought up the question, do you want your dad to do another debate? And of course, as the perpetual victims that this multibillionaire family born multigenerationally into a privilege and luxury. They are the biggest victims I don't even know about in the United States. They're the biggest victims in the world. Donald Trump Jr. says, you know, everybody's unfair.

The moderators are unfair. The media is unfair. So sure, he would like to debate, but he's not going to get a fair share. But I want to talk about the debate. Do you want your dad to do another debate after seeing tonight? You know, I don't think he can have a chance at getting a fair debate. I don't think there's moderators out there that would do that. I think they're probably Fox moderators that are so worried about even you're trying to

appease the left that they'd actually maybe even your dad said CNN gave him a fair debate. Yeah. As usual, everybody is just so unfair. And listen, this was this was a Don Jr. who was coming to terms with the fact that they needed a standout performance from J.D. Vance. And I'm not going to come here and lie to you and said, say J.D. Vance completely collapsed. The public opinion is it was 50 50. That's you look at the CBS Instapoll, you look at the CNN Instapoll, you look at focus groups. It basically is going to

be a wash. VP debates, as I said earlier, rarely move the needle. This one's not going to move the needle. I predict more than half a point. And so what Don Jr. is trying to set up here now is how can we do? It's not so much damage control because there wasn't really much damage, but you didn't get anything from it. A non factor in an election that if it were held today, Kamala Harris would win and Donald Trump would lose. Doesn't mean that's the way it will go down in November. It's very close in a bunch of battleground states. But if it if the election were held today, I believe Kamala Harris would win narrowly, more narrowly than Biden won in 2020. And Don Jr. is just like, I don't even know what I can say. He would debate, but it's all unfair

and everybody's scared of him, except clearly they would debate, but it's all unfair and everybody's scared of him, except clearly they're not. And it's just also terrible what's happened to my family by their own doing. Of course, he is just grasping for whatever he can. On the other hand, we had the reaction from Fox News to the VP debate. Let's talk about that next. When all you have is a hammer. What's that phrase I like? Everything looks like a nail. Fox News anchors, reporters and analysts last night after the vice presidential debate swarmed to those damn CBS moderators were so biased they did everything that made look that made J.D. look bad and Tim Walz look good. This is all they have. This is

this is the only tool they have. Here's Brett Baier and Martha McCallum and Brit Hume weighing in on the moderation, which was so unremarkable that it's just there's there's really nothing to even talk about. When I think about the VP debate, how did Walls do? How did Vance do? OK, there was one time where the mics were cut, when J.D. Vance wouldn't stop going multiple minutes over his time. Other than that, I don't remember anything the moderators did like referees in a game. If they're doing a good job, you just don't really notice them very much.

We didn't really notice the moderators. Fox News doesn't like it. And something tells me that what this is really about is Fox News is angry that they're not getting a debate for the Tiananmen Square protest when he was actually really in Nebraska. He said sometimes he just says things and he's a knucklehead talking about things again. No questions about China. No questions about Ukraine. And there were some questions about fact checking and whether it was fair and balanced across the way. Here with us tonight, Dana Perino, Harold Ford Jr.,

Laura Ingram, Jesse Waters. Britt Hume joins us remotely. Britt, your thoughts coming out of this debate? Well, the moderators were obnoxious and made it feel like three on one on Vance and Vance. It's always three on one. That's their talking point. They have was just fine. He seems to have been his skills as a debater and a speaker seem to have been honed to some extent by just these several months on the campaign trail. And for one so young, he seemed in terms of his knowledge of policy

to run rings around poor Governor Walz, who I think did not have a very great night. As you say, Brett, he got better as the night wore on. But if you're reading this debate on points, it wasn't close. Speaker 1 It's so funny because listen again, I want to make clear I as a as a biased observer and as someone who's consuming this stuff daily, my view is that on substance, Tim Walz absolutely knocked it out of the park. If you look at on abortion, did you hear the things J.D. Vance said? And comparatively, Tim Walz is empathetic, but also accurate understanding of women's bodily autonomy, what works, what doesn't and how to actually reduce

unwanted pregnancy, which Minnesota has done. Oh, but on policy, Brit Hume says J.D. Vance was good on the issue of health care. J.D. Vance twisted himself into a pretzel. Obamacare is bad, but we're going to keep the stuff Obamacare does because it's good. But Donald Trump is actually the one that saved Obamacare, except everything Donald Trump did actually was an attempt to get rid of Obamacare nonsense. And then in comes Tim Walz and explains, OK, listen, here's the deal. The reason you need an individual mandate is otherwise you get adverse selection and that doesn't make the risk pool work. You need the risk pool to be diverse. This is just the fundamentals about insurance.

It's just math. It's actuarial. It's statistical. It's not about Democrats or Republicans. So Brit Hume is talking about how on policy J.D. Vance was running circles around Tim Walz. I didn't see that at all, but they need to do anything they can to extract advantage from this. And they're not going to be able to because the audience saw it as basically a tie debate that won't move the needle one way or the other. Then they go to Laura Ingraham last

night and Laura Inggram again talks about it was just unbelievable. It was unbelievable what J.D. Vance was able to question Trump's choice of Vance as his vice presidential running mate. I think those doubts should have been put to rest tonight. I don't think I've been my eighth presidential campaign. I think I covered I don't think I've ever seen a Republican so deftly maneuver what was smug and arrogant bias on the part of those moderators. Almost every question was designed to make Republicans look bad, slanting Trump's views on child care. And yet Vance seemed to take it all in stride. And he really, I think with most questions, really showed his humanity and also his knowledge of the issues.

I don't think he could have done better under the circumstances. And I think that is very reassuring to the public who thought he was perhaps an ogre or anti woman or didn't like kids or some. Well, you know what's interesting about Laura Ingraham saying this is he couldn't possibly have done any better. Every poll says it was a tie. So I guess the absolute best that J.D. Vance has in him and it impressed Laura Ingram was to do about as well as Tim Walz. So what's the takeaway? The takeaway is that according to these Republicans, they never lose debates.

They get screwed by the moderators. Sure. They get screwed by the camera angles. They get screwed by the mics or the timers or the rules or the questions are designed to make them look bad. It's everything other than J.D. Vance was just sort of OK. He lied articulately and it didn't really impress too many people. And the takeaway is it's probably not going to do much one way or the other for the Trump Vance campaign. So Fox News, as usual, deploying the hammer they have and turning everything into a nail. It's all unfair. Were it not for the questions, the microphones, the positioning on the stage, the moderators, the fact checking, were it not for those things, J.D. Vance's obvious domination of Tim Walz would have been noticeable.

The American people don't seem to have fallen for it. If you look at the instant results of post-debate polling and that's a good thing that it didn't work. If you're still using a free email service, your emails are often being scanned and tracked even after you delete them. Companies use the data to know everything about you and show you ads, even your most personal communications. That's why I recommend you check out start mail.

Unlike free email services, our sponsor start mail never scans or tracks your emails. It also blocks tracking pixels, which companies and hackers use to capture your IP address. The David Pakman Show David Pakman dot com. Thank you, David. on the ground. accounts for team members. That's S.T.A.R.T. Mail dot com slash Pacman for 50 percent off. The link is in the podcast notes. Every romantic relationship has periods where people get busy, struggle to find time to connect or find new ways to connect. And that's why our sponsor paired has been such a valuable tool for so many people. It's the app for couples who want to strengthen their relationship every day. Paired gives you personalized questions or quizzes or games to stay connected, deepen your conversations and have fun. The best part is you can't see your partner's answer until you answer. So it's a safe space to have an open and honest discussion about

the relationship. No faking it or pretending just genuine connection to keep the spark alive. My girlfriend and I have used paired. Even if you've known your partner for years like I have, I still feel like paired helps me learn new things and stay connected. Whether you're just a few dates in or you've been together a long time like me, find the time to connect with your partner. Nourish the relationship. The David Pakman Show David Pakman dot com. As we are very close to the 2024 election, the Republican Party really finds itself at a crossroads of sorts right now. Donald Trump's grip on the party is undeniable. But the future of Trump ism, the future of the Republican Party really depends on the

results of this November election. And this is why I'm calling it an inflection point with repercussions that could last, depending on whether you're talking about the party or the Supreme Court for quite literally decades. This election is a referendum on Donald Trump and the path that the Republican Party has taken since 2015. And depending on what happens in November, the Republican Party could either double down on its pseudo populist nationalist Trump in turn, or it might attempt to reclaim a more traditional brand of conservatism and whether Trump wins or loses and by how much will shape the Republican Party's trajectory for at least the next decade. So let's explore three key scenarios. What I see is the most likely scenarios and what each of those scenarios would mean for Trump, for MAGA and the future of the Republican Party. Scenario one is Trump wins. MAGA dominates and really shapes 2028.

If Donald Trump manages to secure a victory in November, the immediate implications for the Republican Party are going to be clear. The party will continue to be dominated by MAGA. Trump ism will remain the ideological foundation of the Republican Party for some time to come. Certainly at least two more election cycles. A Trump victory in November would solidify MAGA as more than just a political movement. It would become a semi permanent face of the Republican Party. Trump's America first populism defined by these hard line stances on immigration and trade and foreign policy would remain the primary lens through which the Republican Party views the world, at least as far as they publicly admit.

This would be a victory that serves as proof that Trump's brand of politics is highly resonant. It's alive and well, not just with his core supporters, but with enough people to put him back in power. In this scenario, MAGA Republicans would dominate the landscape heading into the twenty twenty eight election. Trump himself would serve as a kingmaker. He would shape the Republican Party's future, likely by anointing its six his successor in twenty twenty eight.

Could even be one of his kids, Ivanka, Don Jr., maybe a high profile loyalist like J.D. Vance or Vivek Ramaswamy. And the question would no longer be whether the Republican Party is Trump's party. The question would become for how long will it stay that way? In his second term, Trump would be free from the constraints of reelection. This will give him an open runway to give more tax breaks to the ultra wealthy and implement the neo fascist immigration policies that he seems to love. International alliances, especially with NATO and global organizations like the U.N., would

likely come under scrutiny. And the judiciary, which Trump has already deeply and profoundly shaped, could see even more conservative appointments and he could solidify a MAGA Supreme Court for a generation. We've looked at that in detail before. So in this scenario, the Republican Party of 20 eight would almost certainly be one in which the MAGA wing dominates and a Trump victory would represent the defeat of never Trump Republicans who may start looking for other alternatives.

The so-called moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Chris Christie, John Bolton, they might abandon the Republican Party altogether, at least as far as public endorsements. And likewise, a Trump victory would also have the potential to cause civil war among Democrats and expose similar rifts within the party in the aftermath of this Kamala failure that we're outlining. The liberal moderates would likely want to move the party even further to the right to accommodate the disillusioned anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party, while the progressive left would advocate for moving the party in a more populist left direction, probably with a heavy emphasis on labor. least Democrats would be able to have that fight. In contrast, any Republican candidate would have to just be servile to Trump in order to be viable in twenty six and twenty eight. The rhetoric of

twenty twenty eight would look much like that of twenty twenty and twenty twenty four candidates focusing on culture wars, fighting the woke left, leaning into anti-immigration and protectionist trade policies and traditional Republican values like limited government fiscal conservatism would continue to take a backseat to Trump's wet dreams and fantasies. If Trump manages to win, he will continue to decline cognitively and physically. And interestingly, Trump might follow a similar trajectory as Joe Biden, with the most loyal Republicans desperately insisting he's fine,

he's as sharp as ever, even though his likely decline would be obvious to everybody else. Nonetheless, the Republican Party would remain Trump's party with MAGA firmly entrenched as the dominant force. We now move to scenario number two, which is Trump loses but loses narrowly. Should Trump lose the election by a narrow margin, the fallout will be profound and chaotic. Given Trump's refusal to accept the 2020 election results, it is very likely that he would again contest the outcome, claiming fraud or irregularities and that he actually is the winner. This could trigger months of legal battles and widespread uncertainty, and it could lead to very serious implications for both Trump

and the Republican Party. His supporters, who are already primed to distrust the electoral system, would rally behind him and it would create intense political polarization. And the potential for civil unrest and violence in this scenario is very real. Trump's rhetoric about stolen elections has emboldened extremist groups and stoked this culture of grievance. Another election contest could lead to protests, confrontations and yes, a heightened risk for violence.

These factions might be even more militant and weaponized, given that Trump would lose to Kamala Harris, who would be the first black woman to become president. We know that this will trigger them. This could leave the Republican Party in a state of paralysis, unsure how to respond to Trump's refusal to exit the stage. A close loss in the ensuing chaos would also expose the deep divisions within the Republican Party. Your establishment Republicans, Mitch McConnell, former Vice President Mike Pence, they might

urge Trump to concede and protect the integrity of the party. Meanwhile, the MAGA base, the MAGA Republicans would probably echo Trump's claims of a stolen election and encourage him to fight, fight, fight. This divide would grow deeper heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 primary season. While the MAGA wing of the party would remain powerful to some degree, there will be a growing appetite among traditional Republicans for a return to something a little more normal. And the Republican Party could very well find itself at war with itself, unable to present a unified front even without another Trump presidency. The MAGA movement probably doesn't disappear in the case of a narrow Trump loss.

Names like Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy will probably come up as 2028 contenders. And there will be a question as to what direction the party goes in. Trump's followers would continue to believe that the system is rigged against them. It'll fuel a politics of grievance and resentment that could dominate the Republican Party for time to come. And whether or not Trump runs again in 2028, he says he won't. And I tend to believe him that he won't. The movement he started would probably remain influential. There would be new candidates trying to pick up the mantle. But this version of the Republican Party would likely be a diminished one.

The Republican Party might struggle to appeal to moderate voters and suburban Republicans who could be turned off by the perpetual contesting of elections and saying we are the victims and the party could end up trapped in a cycle of election denialism, unable to break free from Trump's grip even after he is gone, either from the political scene or from God's green earth. We now go to scenario three. Trump loses badly if Trump were to lose by a significant margin in November. it could mark the end of MAGA as a political force. If we see Trump suffer a decisive defeat, not only would this damage his credibility, it could signal to the country and even to many Republicans. We're moving on. They are moving on. This scenario would have a profound consequence for Trump and the Republican

Party. A large defeat would weaken Trump standing within the party. He probably won't concede the results no matter how decisive they are. But his attempts at claiming he really won would be very, very much unconvincing if it's a blowout loss for Trump. His political clout would diminish. Maybe his most loyal supporters remain. But the broader party would say it's time to go back to traditional Republicans. I believe that if there is a decisive defeat within hours, if we know about it before midnight, by the next morning, if we know about it by the next morning, certainly by that afternoon, you are going to start seeing Republicans realizing that Trump has nothing

left to offer them. There's no reason to stand behind the guy immediately say it's over. It is time to go back to being a different Republican Party. You will see Republicans abandon Trump, not the hardcore voters who go to Trump's rallies, but elected officials. They will bail on Trump within hours if Trump suffers a major loss. Whoever the Republican Party props up in twenty twenty eight will still almost certainly be someone who had loyalty to Trump. You know, you could see like a Josh Hawley or a Tom Cotton. So we shouldn't be too comforted by this idea that you will see Trump abandoned. But a decisive Trump defeat might represent the end of MAGA by name.

It wouldn't make this right wing populism that MAGA has espoused go away. And it probably wouldn't make the party more reasonable in reality, but it would change the optics of what they put forward. Trump's defeat in a major way would also take a psychological toll on Trump. His brand is built on winning and a large loss would be a devastating blow to his ego. The humiliation quite literally could kill him within some period of time. But Trump will never retreat deliberately. He will probably try to stay relevant.

It's a question of whether the Republican Party will allow him to. So to put it a different way, a massive Trump loss could cause disarray within the Republican Party, which would probably be helpful to Democrats. It's rarely bad to absolutely blow out your political opponents, at least in the short term. The question is, in the long term, will it usher in a version of Republicanism that is more likely to win because the Republican Party would be forced to confront its future and there would be a fight to fill the vacuum left by Trump? The Republican Party's future depends on November.

The stakes couldn't be higher. And each of these three scenarios would lead to a significantly different outcome, not just for Trump, but for the party and therefore the country. If Trump wins, MAGA dominates and the Republican Party remains Trump's party, even potentially after Trump's death. If Trump loses narrowly, the Republican Party will fracture, but Mago will continue to wield influence. And if Trump loses by a major, major margin of victory, the party will be thrown into

disarray. Trump will try to stay relevant, but we will likely see other voices emboldened and maybe a return to a Republican Party. That's a little less crazy for Republicans. November is not just about who will occupy the White House for the next four years. It is about whether the Republican Party will remain the party or of Trump or chart a new course and the future of the party and indeed the future of what used to be called American conservatism depend on the outcome of the party and indeed the future of what used to be called American conservatism

depend on the outcome of this election. I know how I will be voting. I hope you do as well. Vote dot org to make sure you're registered to find out where to vote and when we will see what happens very soon. through your breath. And on the app, it'll tell you if you're burning fat or carbs. And on that basis, it'll give you tailored guidance with the goal of improving nutrition, workouts, sleep, even stress management. All you have to do is breathe into your lumen first thing in the morning. You'll know what's going on with your metabolism, whether you're burning mostly fats or carbs, and then lumen will give you a personalized nutrition plan for the day that's based on those particular measurements. Now, you can also breathe into it before or after workouts and meals, which gives you other sets of actionable insights. Your metabolism is like your body's engine.

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This is really bad. Yesterday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Donald Trump could barely stand up straight, struggled to read a confused rant off of papers in front of him and lost his train of thought visibly multiple times. I don't know what's going on with the guy. I've never seen him this low energy. He's hunched over. He can barely read. Here is Trump trying to go off script and you'll notice he completely loses his train of thought. The Green News scam is one of the greatest, most difficult things to be watching.

He doesn't know what he's saying. He doesn't know what he is saying. At another moment, Trump was visibly hunched over, trying to read his script, confused about what it says and having trouble standing. There's really no other way to put it. And out outsourced, we're going to outsource and outscore other public school districts. So they want to compete against startup by competing against certain public school districts. And I guess that's a good place to start. He talks about how he doesn't need a teleprompter, but when he doesn't have it,

something really bad happens. Now, I'm not going to play this whole thing for you. Here are two minutes of Trump's speech. There is zero response from the audience other than the occasional cough. The audience is as dead as Trump seemingly seems from the standpoint of energy. I've never seen him this bad. Did an amazing job. Operation Warp Speed is being studied by many, many schools, both militarily and business wise. Operation Warp Speed, even my greatest enemies, they say, what a job that was. That was a job like no other, nobody else has ever done. And it's ripped the world apart. Every

country got ripped apart, including China. China was delayed, but it was hit harder proportionally, probably, than almost any country. It was a terrible time. Probably $60 trillion in damage and caused by the Wuhan lab. I said that from the beginning. It came out of Wuhan. And the Wuhan lab, it wasn't from bats in a cave

that was 2,000 miles away. It wasn't from Italy. It wasn't from France. They blamed everybody. It's really the China virus. But we did a great's really the China virus. But we did a great job with the ventilators, with the. All right, you get that.

I'm not going to play the whole thing. No, just nothing. Nothing from the audience. I don't remember seeing Trump ever look this orange or this low energy. Trump sometimes when he fixates, when he finds a new misstatement, he fixates on it. And here is Trump again saying it's very surprising we would have a hurricane right now, which, of course, is not true. Amazingly, this is one of the biggest hurricanes anyone's ever seen. It's late in the season. Very unusual. I guess the water the water was 20 feet

high and nobody expects that people go up to the house and they think they're safe on the second floor. Of course, it is not late in the hurricane season. We're in the middle of hurricane season. This is exactly when you would expect major storms. It's an irrelevant lie. Like why does Trump have to keep repeating it? He has to keep repeating it because he was already called out on it and he doesn't like

that. So he's going to keep insisting that this is true. It's very late in the season for such a storm. Nobody could have predicted this in maybe the most openly racist moment of the speech. Trump talked about people coming from the Congo. No one even knows what that is. People among the worst in the world. They come from from the Congo and Africa.

Many people from the Congo. I don't know what that is, but they come out of jails in the Congo. He doesn't even know what that is, but they're coming out of the jails in the Congo. I want to step back from the constant, you know, sort of like, what is this crappy country where it's not? What about Haitians and these shit hole countries? And I'll put that aside for a second. If you want the the country voters, whoever, if you want to be seen as knowledgeable when

it comes to business and industry, how do you not understand the importance of the Congo when it comes to mining and conflict minerals and so many different things? I, you know, I, I read as much as I can. I'm not like the most prodigious reader like Bill Gates or Warren Buffett. But even even I have read three books that either directly or indirectly center around the role of the Congo in industry. And Trump's like, I don't know. What is this thing? The Congo?

Nobody's ever heard of it. Nobody knows anything about it. Another moment that was very strange was Trump acting like we just don't know how many people live anywhere. We don't know how many people live in China. We don't know how many people live in the United States. Why is he talking about this? We don't know. He's going off script and it's bad. We can't even really say, you know, with other countries like China, you say it's 1.4 billion

with India. You say it's 1.5 billion. They're big with us. You don't really know what the number is. You say, how many do we have? Is it 320? Is it 325? Is it 350? Nobody knows. If you go to a government agency, say how many people are in our country, they have no idea. They do have an idea. We have the census and we have ways that we would adjust census results to have a pretty good grasp on how many people are in the United States.

Finally, Trump delivering a nice little endorsement of Kamala Harris. Listen to what he says. California, San Francisco is the best city in the country. 18, 19 years ago, Bob Tish, a friend of mine from Lowe's. Many of you know Bob Tish. He said it was the best city in the country. He's a businessman that had holdings all over. He said, yeah, listen, San Francisco, 18 years ago, when Trump says it

was the best city in the country, had Kamala Harris as the district attorney and Trump once donated to her. So it sounds like a pretty strong endorsement of Kamala Harris. The person he donated to was D.A. of San Francisco in 18 years ago. And San Francisco was the best city in the country then. Sounds pretty good. Of course, is Trump lying or is he confused or did he forget? We will never know. But we have never seen Trump look this addled, this low energy and so stooped over at the lectern deteriorating quickly. And now they're trying to pull them off of being interviewed. That's what I want to talk about next. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were both set to be interviewed on 60 Minutes. This was going to be a big deal.

And all of a sudden, Trump has bailed on the 60 Minutes interview. CBS says Trump will not participate in 60 Minutes interview. He's not going to do it. He is not going to do it. And we we probably know why. I don't think it would go particularly well. But here's the statement that was put out by 60 Minutes. A programming note. 60 Minutes, a programing note. 60 Minutes is scheduled to air a primetime election special on the Monday edition at October 7th at 8 p.m. For over half a century, 60 Minutes has invited the Democratic and Republican tickets to appear on our broadcast as Americans head to the polls.

This year, both the Harris and Trump campaigns agreed to sit down with 60 Minutes. Vice President Harris will speak with correspondent Bill Whitaker after initially accepting 60 Minutes request for an interview with Scott Pelley. Former President Trump's campaign has decided not to participate. Pelley will address this Monday evening. Our election special will be broadcast, etc., etc., etc.. So I want you to remember that just ahead of the 2020 election, Trump appeared on 60 Minutes. He was interviewed by Leslie Stahl, and he cut that interview short because she was being, quote, negative to Trump. He then tried embarrassing her by posting behind the scenes video of her not wearing

a mask. So here is crybaby Trump. The last time he was on 60 Minutes. This is part of why he's not doing it this time. Do you think that your tweets and your name calling are turning people off? No, I think I wouldn't be here if I didn't have social media. But the media is fake. And frankly, if I didn't have social media,

I'd have no way of getting out my voice. Do you know what you told me a long time ago when I asked why you keep saying fake media? You said to me, I say that because I need to discredit you so that when you say negative things about me, no one will believe you. I don't have to discredit you. But that's what you told me. You've discredited yourself.

You know, I didn't want to have this kind of angry. Of course you did. No, I didn't. Of course you did. No, I didn't. Well, then you brought up a lot of subjects that were inappropriately brought up. Well, I said I'm going to ask you tough questions. They were inappropriately brought up right from the beginning.

No, your first question was this is going to be tough questions. Why were inappropriately brought up right from the beginning. No, your first question was, this is going to be tough questions. Why? You don't ask Joe Biden. I saw your interview with Joe, the interview with Joe Biden. I never did a Joe Biden interview. The interview, 60 minutes. I see Joe Biden giving softball after softball. I've seen all of his interviews.

He's never been asked a question that's hard. Okay, but forget him for a minute. No, but you start with me. You're president. Excuse me, Leslie, you started with me. Your first statement was, are you ready for tough questions? Are you? That's no way to talk. That's no way to talk.

At this point, one of our producers interrupted to advise about the time remaining in the interview. I think we have enough of an interview here, Hope. OK, that's enough. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go meet for two seconds. OK, thanks. I'll see you in a little while. Thanks. Be careful. And off wanders. Oh, man. You know, he can't complete a debate with Kamala Harris without imploding. He can't complete an interview with Leslie Stahl without being so wildly triggered that he has to walk away. Of course, he's not doing the interview with Scott Pelley.

This is one part of it because the last 60 Minutes interview went so poorly. But let me also tell you about the other reason that they want to keep Trump away from these interviews. I have 34 seconds of video for you that will serve as a stark reminder as to why Donald Trump's campaign has canceled his scheduled 60 Minutes interview in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Yesterday, Donald Trump was asked about Iran launching missiles against U.S. forces when he was president, reminding Trump Iran clearly wasn't that scared of you if they were willing to launch missiles while you were president at U.S. troops. Trump responds disgustingly by writing off writing off the injuries and PTSD suffered by troops as mere headaches. This is why they don't want him anywhere near Scott Pelley

and 60 Minutes from Iran. But also, do you believe that you should have been tougher on Iran after they had launched ballistic missiles in 2020 on U.S. forces in Iraq, leaving more than 100 U.S. soldiers injured? So first of all, injured. What does injured mean? Injured means you mean because they had a headache because the bombs never hit the fort. So just so you understand, there was nobody ever tougher in Iraq. They had no money with me. They would have made any deal with me. I would have had a deal made within literally I would have had a deal made within one week

after the election. He supports the troops, right? He's the most patriotic, the one that knows what the military needs and wants. And he's the big, strong guy. And yet Donald Trump, who got a letter from a doctor so he could avoid the draft because his feet hurt, says that the 100 injured troops weren't really injured. They just had a headache. And therefore, Iran was scared of him. And he's a great person and a great president. Imagine the disaster that it would be to let this guy sit down

with 60 minutes of Scott Pelley. Now, it's not that Scott Pelley I'm not saying anything in particular about Scott Pelley. I think Scott Pelley does pretty good interviews. I don't watch them that frequently unless they're extremely high profile. But any environment in which there's not going to be distractions, there's not going to be a two minute countdown. Oh, sir, you're out of time. It's not going. This is Trump can't walk away to get on a plane or there's a helicopter whirring in

the background, making it hard to hear. It would be silence. Scott Pelley talking to Trump. And Trump being called out when he tells lies, which, by the way, we have learned was a point of contention. The Trump campaign doesn't want any fact checking if Trump's going to be interviewed by 60 Minutes, and it's part of why he has pulled out. If you claim to be the biggest supporter of the troops and your instinct when you're asked

a question about an attack that took place under your watch is to say the troops weren't really that injured, according to my opinion. You are radioactive when it comes to being able to sit down in a serious interview. So part of the reason Trump's not doing it is because the last one went so poorly. Part of the reason Trump's not doing it is he seems completely unable to resist these varied self-destructive urges. We've got a great bonus show for you today. Things aren't looking so good for Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is begging for money as Democratic challenger Colin Allred is closing in on him. There have been thousands of voters purged from the Georgia voter rolls. They've

re-registered after a Kamala Harris rally. And I'm going to come clean about yesterday's audio problem. There's going to be some technical elements on today's bonus show. So I hope that you are a member. I hope that you sign up at join Pacman dot com. And if you want, you can use the coupon code Save Democracy 24 for a sizable discount off of the cost of your membership. I'll see you then and I'll be back here tomorrow.