The David Pakman Show - 11/30/22: Recession Predictions and Kari Lake's "Fight"

Episode Date: November 30, 2022

-- On the Show: -- We evaluate continued predictions that a massive recession is imminently coming to the United States -- Former Arizona Republican Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake says that she is still fighting for an election that she obviously lost to Katie Hobbs -- New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern explains to a reporter that her meeting with the Finnish Prime Minister has nothing to do with their age or gender -- Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker admitted that he doesn't actually live in Georgia in a newly highlighted audio recording -- Former Vice President Mike Pence wants Donald Trump to "apologize" for meeting with white supremacist Nick Fuentes, among others -- Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says that Donald Trump is now unelectable due to his meeting with white supremacists, but won't rule out voting for him in 2024 -- Failed former President Donald Trump is increasingly deranged, regularly posting all caps messages to Truth Social in the middle of the night -- MyPillow CEO and founder Mike Lindell launches his campaign for RNC chairman with a bizarre rant -- Deranged and weaponized voicemail caller leaves a bizarre message about "smelly Pelosi" -- On the Bonus Show: NYC Mayor says city will treat mentally ill even if they refuse, Twitter is now having trouble paying some employees on time, England and Wales are now minority Christian countries, much more... 🌿 Sunset Lake CBD: Get 20% OFF using code PAKMAN at https://sunsetlakecbd.com 👍 Get 20% off an Allform sofa or armchair at https://allform.com/pakman 🔊 Try Blinkist for FREE and get 25% off at http://www.blinkist.com/pakman ❄️ ChiliSleep by SleepMe: Get 25% OFF your bed-cooling system at https://chilisleep.com/pakman -- Become a Supporter: http://www.davidpakman.com/membership -- Subscribe on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/thedavidpakmanshow -- Subscribe to Pakman Live: https://www.youtube.com/pakmanlive -- Subscribe to Pakman Finance: https://www.youtube.com/pakmanfinance -- Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/davidpakmanshow -- Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow -- Leave us a message at The David Pakman Show Voicemail Line (219)-2DAVIDP

Speaker 1 Let's start today with the economy. Is a massive recession coming? Is question one. Question two is, if so or if not, what, if anything, should you or I or anybody else be doing about it? We're seeing increasingly hyperbolic predictions about just a massive global and American recession coming is one coming. I have no idea. If you're waiting for me to give my opinion, I have absolutely no idea whether a massive recession is coming, but really neither does anybody else. So let's talk through it and explain. First of all, as a general reality, humans aren't good at making economic predictions, which is just not good. And secondly, when there are so many predictions floating around, someone is predicting everything. Somebody is bound to be right just by chance. So you've got

all the people predicting a recession in a week and then in a month and then in six months and over the next 12 to 18 months, over the next two years or no recession, it's all going to be great. Somebody's bound to get it right just by chance and by the fact that we have 330 million people in the United States, many of whom are making economic predictions. That's number two. Number three, predicting doom and gloom and recessions generally gets more clicks and gets you invited onto more television programs and gets more articles written about your predictions. So it's important to understand the bias to sensationalism and zooming out and saying, hey, you know what? I don't know what's going to happen over the next two years,

but over the next 30, the market will probably return an average of seven percent per year like it always has. That's not a particularly titillating and exciting prediction, and that's not going to get you booked on too many television programs. So that's another important thing to understand, the bias to sensationalism and a bias to negative predictions. And then number four, and this may be the most important thing, unless something changes with the way our economy works, there's always a recession coming eventually. So if you predict a recession for long enough or over a long enough period of time, at some point, you're going to be right, because unless something changes and we have no more

recessions. And again, as we've talked about before, recessions are sort of part of a capitalist economy. If you keep predicting recessions at some point, you're going to be right. Now, let's get into the specifics. There are people who have been predicting a recession, a massive recession since 2012, since 2014, since 2016. And the truth is that the economy has been pretty good for most of that time. We had this covid collapse, which lasted like six weeks, markets collapsing, unemployment rate increasing, and then it recovered relatively quickly. They've been wrong. But if they keep predicting it at some point, they might end up being right. So now let's get to a question about numbers and data. Are there good or accurate predictors of when a recession is

coming if we look back in history? And the answer is there are a handful of indicators that do indeed seem to point to the economy being, quote, good or, quote, bad. And these are terms that don't really mean anything unless we define them a little bit better. So what can we say about the indicators? The first thing is when you start seeing a steady rise in job losses and a surge in the unemployment rate, that can be a good indicator of a coming recession. Now, we don't have that at this point in time. If we look at job creation, you see that it actually looks pretty good. You see, if you're looking at the screen here on the left side of your screen is the

unemployment rate. And on the right side of the screen is job creation. We had a big spike in the unemployment rate during the beginning of covid. And we had a big drop in payrolls at the at that exact same time. And then since then, we've seen the unemployment rate go down and remain pretty low. And we've seen payrolls increase and remain, quite frankly, quite high. Now, is it possible? Is it possible that you would see a recession despite a solid employment situation? Anything is possible, but it's not the way it tends to go historically. I think I had one other chart here. Ah, yes.

So this is just a little bit of a more zoomed in look at the unemployment rate. And as you can see, if you go back a long way, there's been sort of like this range and we're well within the range that we've seen for many, many decades at this point in time. OK, so what other indicators could we look at that might signal that a recession is coming? Well, another one is a decline in GDP. And when you look at GDP, you do see that in that start of 2020, there's this little decline and it's little historically speaking, but it was significant at the time. And you see that real GDP went down and then it has gone relatively back to normal and increased.

And there were a couple of little dips there. But GDP really looks pretty unremarkable. So that's not an indicator historically that a recession is coming. Another indicator that historically has been sometimes predictive of a recession is retail sales. And when you look at retail sales and in fact, we can look at it maybe over the 25 year period or even a 10 year period. You see that retail sales are actually pretty OK year over year. There was this big decline. Again, there's so much of this mirroring what was going on with COVID.

Very large decline in retail sales at the beginning of 2020, March, April. And then there was this very big increase. Looks like roughly when exactly was that? That was sort of like middle of 2021. And retail sales are pretty unremarkable. So we're just not seeing the indicators that are normally predictive of a recession signal that a recession is coming. Now, what are the differences? The differences are. Inflation, although it is declining and I believe will continue to decline, has been high, historically high for about a year or even a little bit more. Could that alone, even in the

context of all of these other indicators looking fine, could that maybe point to a recession? Maybe. But again, it's if things are changing, if the circumstances that point to a recession, maybe. But again, it's if things are changing, if the circumstances that point to a recession are different now than they were in the past. So we're going to have to wait and see. Now, a really important thing to think about at the individual level is what should you be doing? What should I be doing? What should individuals be doing? If we believe a recession is coming to be best prepared, they're really the things that we should be doing all the time. So first and foremost, do you have an emergency fund? When we think about an emergency fund, we're usually talking about a thousand dollars so that if an unexpected expense above and beyond your normal monthly expenses comes up,

you don't have to put it on a high interest credit card or borrow money. Thousand dollar emergency fund. If you don't have it in particular, if you think a recession is coming, you should work to establish that. Number two, understand your health insurance limits so that, you know, if I have unexpected medical bills and medical bills are often unexpected, what is the most that I might have to go out of pocket? So this means understanding your deductible and understanding your maximum out of pocket. Number three, paying down high interest debt for two reasons. Number one, paying 15, 20 percent interest on a credit card is very bad financially. That's an extraordinarily high interest rate. And if

you can avoid paying that, you want to avoid paying that. And number two, on the high interest debt, if you believe a recession is or may be coming and if you want to have as much financial flexibility as possible, you want to have credit available on those credit cards. And every dollar you can pay off frees up a dollar if indeed you had no choice but to start charging things in a future recession. And then number four, try to establish that four to six month reserve of monthly expenses. So in an ideal world, you would figure out what are my monthly expenses. You would multiply by four or ideally six. Or if you want to be, you know, have an extra cushion and it's not possible for many people by nine and have somewhere between four and six or even nine months of expenses in the bank. So if your income went to zero for that period of time, you would

still be able to pay your monthly expenses. This is the type of stuff we typically talk about on the Pacman Finance channel. So if any of this is interesting, we have this whole other channel. You can find it at YouTube dot com slash Pacman Finance. And if you go through the topics we've covered, you see that most of the things I've mentioned are listed as individual videos paying off debt, building a budget, et cetera, et cetera. So check that out at YouTube dot com slash Pacman Finance. If it is interesting to you, Carrie Lake lost the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. She lost. What I mean by that is her opponent, Katie Hobbs, got more votes.

And as a result, Katie Hobbs will be the governor. I think six year olds would understand this. Who got more votes? Well, Katie Hobbs got more votes. Oh, so who won? Katie Hobbs won. So what does that mean? It means Katie Hobbs becomes the governor, not Carrie Lake, because Carrie Lake lost

because Carrie Lake received fewer votes. It sounds so simple. And yet Carrie Lake simply will not go away. Carrie Lake won't simply say it's over Carrie Lake delivering another one of these highly filtered. I've never seen a blur filter the way that Carrie Lake's videos have. She put out a video updating her supporters about her fight. Now, understand what it means that she is fighting this. This small detail is so important. She's fighting for an election where she lost because her opponent received more votes. It's that simple. And yet here she is. Question, is she grifting or is she actually fighting? I don't know. Let's see if we can figure it out. Arizona, it's Carrie Lake. And I wanted to update you on what's happening in our fight

against Arizona's sham elections and those who run them. For starters, I want you to know that I am firmly in this fight with you. Maricopa County just couldn't wait to certify their botched election. The botched election where half of Election Day voting centers were inoperable. That is a lie. Half of the voting centers were not inoperable. There were a few machines that were malfunctioning for a portion of Election Day. We've talked about it already. The botched election where Election Day printers caused mayhem across the county. The botched election where Arizonans were expected to wait in line two, three, four, even five hours simply to exercise their sacred right to vote. Now, remember, in other places, other counties or overwhelmingly Democratic areas,

making people have to wait for hours to vote is a strategy from the right. They close down polling places and early voting in overwhelmingly or places, parts of the states that favor Democrats in order to create long voting lines, which they say is fine. But here lines are indicative of suppressing the Republican vote. Think about that. Arizonans were told to throw their vote into a drawer where it might ultimately end up in a plastic bin or a trash bag. Maricopa County, where it took two weeks to count,

is the poster child for broken, botched elections. But if you bring up any of these issues, you are labeled an election denier. Well, when you're lying, you are called a liar. A conspiracy theorist. They don't want us talking about our shoddy elections under any circumstances. They shut us down and made us fear exercising our freedom of speech. And they canceled anyone who questioned past elections. Because of that, many Americans did not speak out and nothing was done to shore up elections. And now we are paying the price again.

Now, remember, nothing was done to shore up elections in the immediate aftermath of 2016 when real vulnerabilities were identified, including the vulnerability of our elections broadly to foreign influence. Many, particularly Democrats, tried to actually do something about it. Republicans didn't want to hear it. Mitch McConnell didn't want to hear it. So when we identified a real problem, we did try to fix it. They didn't want to fix it because they like the results. Now that they've identified imaginary problems, they say nobody else wants to fix it because it's part of the way that the left is stealing elections. It is quite literally backwards from reality. Arizona, America, if we do not stand up and speak up right now about the most dishonest

elections in the history of Arizona, I truly fear for our future. Our sacred vote is supposed to be the great equalizer of the people. And right now our vote has been trampled upon. We must work hard right now to save it. This is our last chance. Those of you who are speaking out about what happened on November 8th, those who testified before the corrupt board of supervisors. That includes the people who said that there was treason, the people who said it was demonic. That's who she's talking about. We looked at clips of that yesterday. Thank you and God bless each of you.

The people she's thanking, many of them are insane. I am with you. Here's what I'm busy working on. I'm working with a team of patriotic, talented lawyers on a legal case to challenge the botched elections. Now remember many of those patriotic talent, talented lawyers who got involved in 2020, many of them were disbarred. My team and I realize how important this case is and what is at stake. We will file this case in accordance with Arizona state law. And you'll

want to stay tuned for this one. Trust me. So many have expressed concern about Maricopa County certification. OK, I think you get it. This reeks of desperation and it reeks of grift. Trump fought in quotes, fought, which was really fundraised money. Right. The last big grift, although maybe the last big grift is him now running for president again. Trump fought for two years and he got nothing. Are they really going to fall for this all over again? So let's go through the facts just so we're clear on them.

Maricopa County officials said to numerous media outlets, including to USA Today, no extra ballots were counted at any voting sites in the county. There has been no evidence that people who wanted to vote were unable to vote. They've seen no evidence that the ballot drop boxes were insecure, and they have also not been contacted by many of the individuals that Carrie Lake and others claim are, quote, working on this issue. The county has processes to ensure legal ballots are counted one time, not zero times and also not two times. The the drop boxes were secure. The tabulators, which a few of them briefly malfunctioned on Election Day, were repaired. Even the RNC,

which initially filed a lawsuit over that, withdrew the lawsuit because it was demonstrated to their satisfaction that everything was on the up and up. This is all made up. And at this point, I genuinely don't know. Is this number one, a way for Carrie Lake to keep raising money? I don't know the answer to that. Is this number two, Carrie Lake being a true believer in any of the nonsense that she's saying, including that she's fighting for the election? Again, the election's over. We're almost a month beyond the election.

She lost her opponent one or and I'm increasingly of the mindset that this is the most likely explanation or is this Carrie Lake auditioning to be Trump's VP? Is that really what this is about? That much like and I know I mentioned this yesterday, many Trump supporters who maybe didn't literally believe Trump won in 2020 said it because it was how you pledged allegiance to the team. It's not the pledge of allegiance to the flag. It's the pledge of allegiance to Trump. And the way you pledge allegiance is by saying Trump won. Is Carrie Lake doing the same thing and wanting to position herself to be Trump's 2024 VP by saying the exact same stuff Trump said about 2020?

And quite frankly, the exact same stuff Trump has been 2020 and quite frankly, the exact same stuff Trump has been saying about Carrie Lake's own election, which we will get to a little bit later. Let me know what you think. And remember, if you're watching our clips and you are not yet subscribed on YouTube, please subscribe. This is my Jeb Bush. Please clap moment.

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make money. Everybody else that makes money to fund themselves is bad. Now, I admit all of the awards the bonus show has won are our awards. We give out. It's sort of like when Trump wanted to give himself the Congressional Medal of Freedom. But nonetheless, they are awards. And you can sign up at join Pacman dot com. A New Zealand prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, did an extraordinarily good job of pointing to a reporter's very silly question and saying, would you be asking me that question if I was a 60 year old man instead of a younger woman? This is super interesting. And we're going to look at the clip. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was doing a joint press conference with the Finnish prime minister, Santa Marin, both female leaders younger than being in their 60s or 70s, as is common in many parts around the world.

And the reporter asked, why are you meeting? Is it because you're both younger women? And Jacinda Ardern, among pointing out many other problems with the question, said, is that a question you would ask about why other world leaders meet? Let's take a look at this. This was very nicely handled. Yeah, a lot of people will be wondering, are you two meeting a lot? By the way, a lot of people will be wondering, is that actually true or is this just a code for I want to ask this question no matter what? And so I'm saying other people want to know who's wondering about that. Here we go. Yeah, a lot of people will be wondering, are you two meeting just because, you know, you're

similar in age and, you know, got a lot of, you know, common stuff there, you know, when you got into politics and stuff? Or can Kiwis actually expect to see more deals between our two countries down the line? My first question is, I wonder whether or not anyone ever asked Barack Obama and John Kiwis actually expect to see more deals between our two countries down the line? My first question is I wonder whether or not anyone ever asked Barack Obama and John Key if they met because they were of similar age. We, of course, have a higher proportion of men in politics. It's reality because two women meet. It's not simply because of their gender.

Finland exports into New Zealand $199 million worth of exports. They have particular technology in companies like Nokia, biofuels, even basic industrial wares that we use in our buildings. You won't be aware that a large number of our elevators come out of Finland, agricultural machinery. New Zealand, on the other hand, is trading about $14 million worth, and it's mostly in wine and beef. There is huge potential between us. The EU FTA is a launchpad for that, but we need to make sure that as nations, we don't

just simply go through the motions of a FTA ratification, but that as individual nations we look for the opportunities to build on that economic agreement. So for me this is timely. Next year we're looking to progress that FTA. Our meeting today is a chance alongside the Prime Minister's high-level trade delegation of significant industry leaders. We really leverage the economic opportunities between our two countries. Little would be known about the depth of that relationship or the potential of it. But it's our job to further it regardless of our gender. Yeah, we are meeting because we are prime ministers, of course. But as Jacinda said, we have. I think you get the point. This is really a perfect example of the type of question that she

gets because of her age and gender. And I think it's really important. This is really a perfect example of the type of question that she gets because of her age and gender. And I think it's really important. You know, this is not a show. It's important to me that this is not a show that uncritically repeats tropes that are not actually true. So when the all you don't hear this too much anymore, but there was a while where it was 77 cents on the dollar. Women make 77 cents on the dollar compared to men. And if I'm going to be using that, I want

to know that that's actually accurate. And so we researched it. We spent a while doing the research. We did a long form piece on it, and we found out that really we're talking about ninety two cents on the dollar when we look at the gender pay gap. Some part of that gap, presumably due to gender discrimination and part of it due to other factors. So that's the number I use. I want to have the actual data. This is just a perfect example of a question that you're not going to get, you know, when Trump and who's a 70 something year old world world leader? I don't know. I mean, listen, Putin's not 70 something. I think he's close to 70. But when Trump and Putin meet, no one thinks to say, are you meeting because you're both white men of a similar age? No, nobody would ask that in any other circumstance like this. In fact, when you

see someone like Trudeau and McCrone meet younger men, nobody's asking about whether they're meeting because of their age either. So I think it's really important that we not say that there are isms when they aren't actually there, that we're accurate with the claims that we make, etc. This is just straight up a question that she's getting and that they are getting both of the Finnish and New Zealand prime minister. They are getting these questions because of their age and gender, plain and simple. Georgia is potentially going to elect Herschel Walker. Herschel Walker doesn't live in Georgia, and it is now becoming even more clear because of an audio recording that has been resurfaced.

So let me give you the back story on this, and then I'm going to play a very important clip for you. One of the things we've known about Herschel Walker, a former football player running as a Republican for senator in Georgia against the incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. The runoff is on December 6th and we will have live results for you next Tuesday. One of the things that we learned about him is that he really has lived in Texas for a while, but he claimed that he also lived in Georgia and we are aware of a property that Herschel Walker has in Georgia. But now, due to a combination of

new reporting and a resurfaced audio tape, we have learned that he doesn't really live in Georgia. He admits that he lives in Texas. At least he did a few months ago. And also the property in Georgia was up until recently rented out, so he couldn't possibly be living there. Yes, he owned a property. He had an address where he could say this is my house, but he didn't live there and it was, in fact, rented out to somebody else. So let's go through this piece by piece.

First and foremost, we have this new admission from Herschel Walker. The Guardian is reporting about it. I live in Texas. Herschel Walker's speech adds to Georgia Senate run problems in a campaign speech earlier this year. Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate, said I live in Texas. I live in Texas. Let's go to that audio. It's not the best quality audio, but I think we're not going to have a problem making it out. Speaker 4 Everyone asked me why did I decide to run for a Senate seat? Because to be honest with you, this is never something I ever, ever, ever thought I would do.

And that's the honest truth. But as I was sitting in my home in Texas, Speaker 1 so OK, I was sitting in my home in Texas. So OK, I was sitting in my home in Texas. That doesn't mean he doesn't also live in Georgia. OK, but so that's a start. Let's continue in my home in Texas. And I was seeing what was going on in this country. You know, I live in Texas. I went down to the border.

I live in Texas and I went down to the border. This is in the context of running for Georgia Senate. And he says, I live in Texas and I went down to the border. Now, of course, he thought that it made sense strategically to tout his bona fides about knowing what's happening at the border. The problem is you claim to live in Georgia, but you say, actually, I know about the border because I live in Texas. And then and it just keeps coming. We learned yesterday Herschel Walker's Georgia home is a rental property. The Root reporting via Yahoo News, Herschel Walker's most recent scandal is actually an old one. Going all the way back to his campaign announcement last year, it's been reported scandal is actually an old one going all the way back to his campaign

announcement last year. It's been reported that Walker actually didn't live in Georgia, the state he wants to represent, at least not full time. He owns a house in suburban Dallas that he and his current wife occupied for years and where Walker receives a homestead tax exemption, which is reserved for a person's primary residence. Hmm. But Walker has always had an ace in the hole to use for plausible deniability. He still owns a house in Georgia. A campaign finance report last year values the house between 20 and five hundred thousand dollars. As long as it exists, Walker can rebut his critics

with the fact that plenty of people own houses in more than one state. Now, a new report pokes holes in that idea with receipts that until recently, Walker's Georgia home was occupied by renters who paid Walker and his wife thousands. And the Daily Beast has the specifics. The house doubled as the Walker campaign's official address when he launched his bid. Records show it's owned by Walker's wife solely who was collecting rental income on it. It's his wife's house, and it at least was until recently rented out. Herschel Walker was clearly not prepared to deal with this issue in the way that Mehmet Oz was prepared to deal with it. Mehmet Oz certainly isn't from Pennsylvania, but he was slightly more credibly able to make the case that he's sort of from Pennsylvania

and lives in Pennsylvania. He has more than two houses. I don't even remember the number at this point in time. So Herschel Walker caught in another lie. Now, quite frankly, I don't think this is going to make a very big difference. Right wingers will say Democrats are the devil. I don't care where Herschel Walker lives. It's better for the country and for the state for Walker to be representing us rather than Warnock. And he could live in Alaska. He could live in Timbuktu. I don't really care. But the race is expected to be relatively close. There's a lot of little things that have been going against Herschel Walker. And if this has even a very small impact, it's now a growing

list of things which hopefully will give us the results that we want on Tuesday. We're going to be live with results on Tuesday, of course, starting. You know, I actually don't know. I think the polls close at eight in Georgia. I'm going to double check that. If indeed the polls close at eight, we'll probably be live at 730 p.m. Eastern time and then the results will start coming in. If I learn that the results won't even start coming in until nine, maybe we'll start at 830. But I will be live on YouTube, Twitch and Facebook. I hope that you will join me and we will have all of the clips I played here today

on our Instagram, which you can find by searching Instagram for David Pakman show. I love reading. I read every day, no matter how I arrange my schedule. I never have enough time to read all the books that I want, which is why Blinkist has been such an important part of my life for years now. Our sponsor Blinkist is the app that takes thousands of nonfiction books, boils them down into an explainer that you can read or listen to in just 15 minutes, which includes all the most important takeaways from the book. With Blinkist, I can absorb the essence of 15 different books in an afternoon so I can quickly gather insights from all sorts of perspectives, make connections, have those kind of aha moments that don't happen so easily, which is why I feel enriched when I use Blinkist. Blinkist also summarizes episodes of popular podcasts into

15 minute explainers. And with the Blinkist connect feature, my girlfriend and I can share one account, share books, podcasts with each other, talk about them on the go. And don't forget Blinkist makes the perfect holiday gift. My audience can try Blinkist free for seven days and get 25 percent off after that. Go to Blinkist dot com slash Pacman. That's B-L-I-N-K-I-S-T dot com slash Pacman. The link is in the podcast notes. Let's talk a little bit about Republican reactions to failed former President Donald Trump having this white supremacist dinner with Nick Fuentes and Kanye West and others at Mar-a-Lago. Mike Pence does something which is it's almost difficult to do in a sense. Mike Pence will come

around and make a statement supposedly based on principle and whatever. And it's like the blandest, most milquetoast, most meaningless statement he could possibly make that just falls so embarrassingly and humiliatingly short of what people should be saying. So as an example of the type of reaction that I would like to see more from Republicans. Just figure just find rather the recent statement from Mitt Romney, which I don't have here available, but is widely available on just completely unequivocal, unquestioning condemnation of this dinner that Donald Trump had. Mike Pence, on the other hand, wants Donald Trump to apologize for the dinner with the anti-Semite apology.

I think he should apologize. The Associated Press has an article about it. We have the clip. Let's take a look at it. Here is Mike Pence on News Nation. And he wants an apology. And all the way, by the way, notice there's a but here as well. President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table.

And I think he should apologize for it. Wow. You should really apologize for that. That was the wrong thing to do. You should denounce those individuals and their hateful rhetoric without qualification. With that being said, as I point out in the book, with that being said, you know, there's other stuff I need to mention here as well. I don't believe Donald Trump is an anti-Semite. I don't believe he's a racist or a bigot. I would not have been his vice president if he was.

That's a lie. Now that that's the that's where it starts to get unbelievable. You wouldn't have been his vice president. Come on, Mike. We don't believe that you were thirsty for power in the spotlight. A guy comes to you who's the nominee and he says, I want you to be my running mate. And you go, I don't know. I mean, you're kind of a little bit racist. I can't I'm not going to do it. Nobody believes that. And, you know, people often forget the president's daughter converted to Judaism. His son in law is a devout Jew. His grandchildren. He's a Jew. So listen, we've talked about this before. It's less with Trump about I've also made some of the same observations that Mike Pence

is making here. Jared Kushner, his son in law, is Jewish. His own daughter converted to Judaism. His grandkids, some of his grandkids are now Jewish. With Trump, it's not about the type of anti-Semitism that would have him denounce his own daughter. It's about similar to Trump with his preconceived notions about people from certain countries are same with Trump when it comes to his views on LGBTQ individuals. It's not the type of virulent phobia or isms that some of my former guests on the show

have exhibited, but it is more of like a low grade casual. Here is my sort of beliefs about these people and he tolerates them and whatever the case may be. But he's not so against the racism and xenophobia and whatever that he will unilaterally denounce it from his movement and reject individuals who do harbor those views. That's the type of view and type of person that Donald Trump is and views that he holds. Now, as far as Mike Pence here, OK, this is both too little and too late when it comes to Mike Pence. And in fact, it's quite pathetic. And what I mean about that is the following. If these right wing Republicans like Pence wanted us to really believe that they are

completely against the type of views espoused by Fuentes and Kanye West, and I don't even remember, was Milo Yiannopoulos part of that dinner. I don't know. I don't remember exactly who was there. It would be more powerful if they denounce the people within their own parties that had these views, because there's members of the Republican Party who are elected officials in the House of Representatives and to some degree, even in the Senate, who have a variety of these views and there they are silent. And so it's easy to call out Nick Fuentes or Kanye West and people who are being not universally, but but at least by some political movements denounced. It's easy to do that. Call out the elected

officials in your party. This is too little too late for Mike Pence. And now I want to talk about Mitch McConnell as well. Senate Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell weighed in on Donald Trump's Nazi dinner, white supremacist dinner, call it whatever you want. And he had what sound like pretty strong things to say about what Donald Trump did. Let's take a listen to this first clip. There is no room in the Republican Party for anti-Semitism or white supremacy. That's a lie. OK, but let's continue. And anyone meeting with people advocating that point of view, in my judgment, are highly unlikely to ever be elected

president of the United States. So Mitch McConnell here is saying Trump is essentially unelectable because of that meeting that he had. Oh, wow. Well, that's pretty strong words from Mitch McConnell, right? Well, he also during this same meeting, the same press avail refused to answer. Would you vote for Trump in 2020? Would you support Trump if he were to win the Republican nomination? I know you're saying he is unlikely because nobody's going to vote for a guy who has dinner with these people. But, you know, if they did, Mitch indulges if they did, would you vote for him for president? And Mitch McConnell refuses to rule it out.

In light of what you said, that there's no room in your party party when the harbors of anti-Semitic views, if Donald trump wins the republican nomination would you support him look let me just say again there is simply no room there's no room but i might vote for him republican party for anti-semitism or white supremacy and that would apply to all of the leaders in the party who will be seeking offices. Did you see that? There is absolutely no room for this. And anyone who holds these types of meetings in our party is not going to be able to become president of the United States.

Oh, OK. Would you vote for him for president of the United States? Maybe. That's essentially what Mitch McConnell is saying here. So I'm going to say it again. It's easy to denounce Nick Fuentes. It's easy to denounce Kanye. It's harder, seemingly harder for them to denounce the elements of the establishment who play coy with these same ideas. And by the way, McConnell's not the only one for it. I mean, progressive Democrats, that's that's the most dangerous thing that there is out there. It's all the same with these people. So don't fall for the mealy mouth. Oh, it was wrong.

What Donald Trump did. He should apologize, says Mike Pence. Oh, well, where were you when establishment members of your party were doing all this stuff while you were vice president? Where were you then? Jewish space lasers and all this crazy stuff. Silent. They're pathetic. It's easy to denounce easy targets. They should actually look inward at their own elected officials.

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This really might be the end of Trump, but I want to be very careful about prematurely reporting the death of one's political career. They can come back. There were people in 2016 who said Trump has no chance. And of course, they were wrong. Even recently, even close to the 2016 Election Day, I thought Trump had no path to victory. So let's be careful about declaring his political career dead. But Donald Trump does seem very damaged at this point in time. He's being kept out of the Georgia Senate race, Herschel Walker's race in Georgia, and he is now regularly posting nonsense to truth social all night long. Check out this really strange stuff. On Tuesday, around 1030 a.m., Donald Trump posted in all caps. Remember, you can never have fair and

free elections with mail in ballots. Never, never, never won't and can't happen. And then at 213 in the morning early this morning, Donald Trump retrothed it, adding also in all caps, one more never Trump also posting at 1215 a.m. this morning. This election cycle reminds me so much of 2016, much more so than 2020, where I actually did much better. Got 12 million more votes. Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, the Wall Journal were terrible to me, much like today until I won the election. CNN, when they actually had great ratings, was terrific. They covered me no matter where I went 24 seven.

The big difference is my record. Best economy and border, no inflation or wars, energy independence, record jobs, strong military worldwide respect and so much more. And then dozens, just dozens of other retros. A retros is sort of like a retweet because truth central just copied Twitter. But as you page down, it's just video posts and retruths and just endless, endless, endless posting dozens and dozens and dozens of time. He also went after Karl Rove in one of his rants, posting, quote, Rhino Karl Rove, a man with a losing record, the likes of which few political operatives would be able to get away with, including his loss to me in 2016, fights so hard and so stupidly, but is constantly on Fox News and the once great Wall Street Journal

explaining how things should be done. And he doesn't have a clue. People can't stand him, a clone of even more unpopular Paul Ryan, who sadly runs Fox News now on a very bad path. Rove is a denier of deniers, but it's completely misspelled. D I N I E R. Am I missing something about what Trump is doing here? It misspelled denier of deniers, which makes him a fool. Watch. So the important question. Is whether Trump is actually weakened, is Trump actually weakened right now? Well, what are the betting markets say and what are the latest polls say? If we start with the betting markets, indeed, Ron DeSantis has as strong of a position

in the 2024 Republican primary as he has ever had. Donald Trump is still in a very respectable second place. Now, the numbers need a little bit of interpretation. If you had a situation here where Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump had never been president and had either both or both or neither had announced that they were running in twenty twenty four. And you saw these numbers. You might say, OK, I mean, it's still very early. Neither has announced and neither has been president. Forty thirty two.

OK, it's kind of not not hugely meaningful. The difference is Ron DeSantis in the betting markets is now healthfully ahead of Donald Trump. Ron DeSantis hasn't announced that he's running for anything. And Donald Trump has already been president of the United States. And yet you see these numbers. That is quite interesting. We then can look at actual polling. And we're only looking at this like every couple of weeks. It's not really a horse race yet, but it is interesting to see that the polling is quite split right now. A new YouGov poll has Trump up six over DeSantis. But notice it's only thirty six to thirty. And when you look at more data, you see that Don Jr. is pulling nine percent in that poll.

Imagine that Mike Pence is pulling eight percent, et cetera. Trump plus six. There's another poll from Communication Concepts, which already has DeSantis plus five, 45 to 40. And then as you read down the line, you see that there are polls in which Donald Trump is leading and polls in which Ron DeSantis is leaving. But importantly, it is so early in this thing and Trump has already been president. And Ron DeSantis hasn't even announced that it is quite stunning to a degree to see Donald Trump polling this poorly. Trump was polling poorly at the beginning of the 2016 Republican primary, and so we're making no conclusions. But his increasingly erratic behavior being kept out of Georgia when it comes to Herschel Walker and both the polling and

betting market data not looking particularly good. Twenty twenty four could be a very different Republican primary and a contested Republican primary against a former Republican president. That is a very different situation and quite unique. We're going to follow it. One of the best things that could happen for the left is for the right to do damage to itself by just getting involved in complete and total nonsense. When I hear complete and total nonsense, one of the first names that comes to mind is Mike Lindell Pillow, the CEO and founder of MyPillow, who has been a guest on this program multiple times. Don't miss my last interview with him. It was pretty whacked. Mike Pillow is officially

launching his campaign for Republican Party chairman. He is targeting Ronna McDaniel. He says Ronna McDaniel is leading the party in the wrong direction. And part of his evidence of that is that the election from a few weeks ago should have been a massive red wave. And it wasn't. And here is Mike Pillow making it clear he's really doing this. Take a listen. Speaker 4 It should have been the biggest red wave in the history of the world. Right. Ever. It should be the biggest red wave in the history of the United States. and you know and it didn't happen and why didn't it happen um well the donors want to know we put in all the money come on what what happened well you better find out what happened

the the rnc completely lied to the american people they and to their donors and said that they would go after election integrity. They called it integrity. I call it election crime. Oh, yeah, we're all for election integrity. Really? What have you done? What did you do in 2020? You know what you did in 2020? What the RNC did, everybody, is they all got together. And here's a fact and said, oh, we're not going to do anything because we could get sued. That would be one of their excuses. We could get sued by the machine companies. Let's just let our country be destroyed and let's just keep taking money for our donors. Can you imagine if this guy was the chairman of the Republican National Committee? Oh, my goodness. And we hope that we can override the algorithms.

Yeah, we should we should encourage this. We should support this wholeheartedly. Even if Pillow doesn't win, it would be a very nice distraction for the Republican Party. So maybe they don't do as many damaging things. And just on the off chance that Pillow wins, it would wreak total havoc on the twenty twenty 2024 primary. It would bring in a massively pro-Trump RNC chair, which is the exact opposite of what the establishment Republican Party wants to see at this point in time. The left should 100 percent be supporting this. And no, I still haven't gotten those free pillows from Mike Pillow. at this point. I don't even really know that I want them. So to take kind of a more 30,000 foot view of the RNC and the Republican Party thinking about 2024, what the Republican Party, absent even the pillow stuff, is going to have to figure out for 2024 is do they go fully against Trump?

But if they do that, the risk is Trump wins the nomination. And then what happens? Or do they just remain sort of neutral publicly behind the scenes, try to work against Trump so that if indeed Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, there's still some sort of plausible deniability or ability to work with Trump and to try to get him to do some things that they would like to see him do. I quite frankly can't imagine what a 2024 Trump presidency would be or starting in 2025 if Donald Trump were to win because he seems completely uninterested in actual governance. There's not even a pretense of policy other than these vague things. Well, we're going to shut down

the border crossings again, even though nothing really changed since he left. And it's not really policy. He's not even pretending that he's going to get us that beautiful health care plan anymore. So I don't know what such a presidency looks like. And the RNC would probably be well advised if they think there's any shot that Trump has at this thing, which clearly Trump has some shot. How do they stay enough in his good graces that they can actually get him to achieve some policy things or even pay attention to them? That's the real question. I don't know which direction they'll go in. We have a voicemail number. That number is two one nine two. David P. Here is a caller who is really, really, really excited that Republicans are taking control of the House in January.

Listen to this guy. Republicans now control the House. Now it's time for payback for all those lowlife Democrats and smelly, smelly Pelosi. Yes. The caller wants payback for those Democrats and for smelly Pelosi. I hate to break it to this caller. By the way, he doesn't actually sound that excited. I hate to break it to this caller. By the way, he doesn't actually sound that excited. I hate to break it to this caller, but Republicans have already made clear what they are going to do in the two years that they're about to control the House. Number one, they're going to obstruct anything Democrats try to do to help the country. They'll try to get in the way. That's number one. And number two, Republicans will investigate Hunter Biden. The payback for all of the terrible things Hunter

Biden did to this country is going to come from investigations into Hunter Biden, which don't make any sense. He's not running for anything. He's not in any way involved in Joe Biden's presidency. We know what's coming. It's going to be pathetic. It's going to be a joke on today's bonus show. The New York City mayor says that New York City is going to treat the mentally ill even if they refuse treatment or try to refuse treatment. What's going on here? We're going to talk about what's happening in New York City. Twitter is reportedly now having trouble making payroll. Some employees are reportedly not being paid on time at Twitter. Oh, what is happening there? And number three, England and Wales are now minority Christian countries based on the

latest census. What does the data mean? What are the majorities and what is the future of England and Wales as what have historically been Christian countries? A very interesting situation. And is the same coming to the United States? The demographics may well be pointing in that very same direction. All of those stories we are going to be talking about on today's bonus show, which you can sign up for at join Pacman dot com.

Also, I want to ensure that everyone who wants it has downloaded the free white paper on consider getting people who disagree with you politically to reconsider their views. It's called building arguments without burning bridges. You can get the guide for free. You know, people write to me and they say, David, I have tears in my eyes because I want the white paper, but I can't afford it. The white paper is free. You also do not need to email me for the white paper. I had people emailing me saying, David, can you send me the white paper? No, it's all completely automated and available to you whenever you want it. Here are the steps. You go to David Pakman dot com slash guide. You type in your email address and we email you the white paper. It's completely free. It's completely free. It's completely free.

Over fifteen hundred people have now downloaded the white paper. Unbelievable numbers. Get that. Get the bonus show. Get the commercial free audio and video streams of the show. Do the entire thing. And I will see you on the bonus show in mere moments.