The David Pakman Show - 2/3/25: Trade war begins, economic chaos, total disaster

Episode Date: February 3, 2025

-- On the Show: -- Donald Trump's trade war begins, with new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, sending the American economy into a tailspin -- Donald Trump admits that his tariffs will indeed cause pain for the average American -- Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace admits that Trump's tariffs will cause prices to go up, and Fox News runs a crawl of all the items that will be affected by Trump's tariffs -- Discussing the items that will increase in price under Trump's tariffs that Americans might want to stock up on now -- Examining Greg Palast's viral article claiming that Donald Trump did not really defeat Kamala Harris in the 2024 election -- Elon Musk has received access to the central federal government payments system, arguably a form of industrial espionage -- Canada is targeting red states in retaliation to Donald Trump's tariffs -- Donald Trump's trade war is increasingly making other countries hate us, with Canadians booing the US National Anthem at multiple recent sporting events -- On the Bonus Show: Trump's legal basis for tariffs makes no sense, Trump admin exempts air traffic controllers from resignation offer, and much more... 📜 Trust & Will: Save 10% on your estate planning at https://trustandwill.com/pakman 🥂 ZBiotics: Use code PAKMAN for 15% OFF at https://sponsr.is/zbiotics_pakman_1224 🩳 SHEATH Underwear: Code PAKMAN for 20% OFF at https://sheathunderwear.com/pakman ⚠️ Ground News: Get 50% OFF their unlimited access Vantage plan at https://ground.news/pakman 🔊 Babbel language learning: Get up to 60% OFF at https://babbel.com/pakman 🛡️ Incogni lets you control your personal data! Get 60% off their annual plan: http://incogni.com/pakman -- Become a Member: https://davidpakman.com/membership -- Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/davidpakmanshow -- Get David's Books: https://davidpakman.com/echo -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow -- David on Bluesky: http://www.davidpakman.com/bluesky -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow

Welcome to the show, everybody. The tariffs and the trade war are on. We are going to spend a bunch of time today talking about it. Let me mention, by the way, I appreciate the concern from last week that I am ill, that I have taken ill and that I am sick because of the coloring and shine under my eyes. I just have kind of crappy lighting when I'm on the road and I'm still trying to find the right setup for travel where the lighting looks better, but I don't have to stuff my suitcase full of multiple lights. So in any case, I'm going to continue, but I appreciate the concern. I am

feeling fine. Let's get into it. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump signed an order slapping, power slapping, a 10% tariff on imports from China, additional onto what was already there, a whopping 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. That includes oil, that includes natural gas, that includes electricity from Canada. And this triggered immediate retaliation from Canada, matching Donald Trump's tariffs with their own on about $155 billion worth of American imports. This is a trade war that echoes the same chaotic approach from Donald Trump's first term, where the tough talk and the unilateral, nonsensical action soured relationships that took decades to build. We'll get into the relationships part in a little bit. Now, I've said before, and I'm going to say it again, trade policy doesn't have to be a zero-sum game. Tariffs aren't objectively bad.

The question is, what are we trying to achieve and what is the dynamic effect going to be once we account for how our trading partners may or will retaliate? Now, we saw booing of the American, the US national anthem at multiple Canadian sporting events over the weekend. We'll get to that later, but that really sort of goes to the broader sentiments that can ripple out and just destroy relationships. Now, we're going to get to that a little bit later. The point here is that Trump believes, I guess, that there is some long-term benefit to 25 percent tariffs on most Mexican and Canadian goods, plus an extra 10 percent on Chinese imports.

He has admitted in the short term it's going to be painful for Americans and we will dig into that as well. The major immediate question is how does this supposedly America first policy square with the trade deal that Trump himself negotiated in his first term, where he came to us and said, I just did America first. We're reducing protectionism with some of these allies. Now he says, no, no, no, we're going to benefit from more tariffs because of fentanyl. We know it as fentanyl, fentanyl and immigration and not paying their fair share and being treated very unfairly or whatever. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the United States has betrayed a longtime ally. Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum has fired back and they've put in place their own retaliatory tariffs.

Suddenly, our two closest neighbors are preparing economic plan Bs to hit us where it hurts, right in the export market. And the stock market is reacting unfavorably. The hedge funds smell blood. Pros on Wall Street are shorting American stocks to the tune of billions. This leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy because they believe the tariffs will reduce GDP and hurt the economy. They start to short, which further creates a stock market catastrophe. They used to love Trump's corporate tax cuts and we could say those were not good for the average American, but wall street like them. The bet now is that Trump is going to steer the economy into this brick wall of tariffs and inflation.

We'll get to the egg prices today. I will give you a list of items I might start stockpiling, which of course only makes the problems worse. We saw that during COVID. But if the hedge funds are right, everyday Americans, people with a little money in a 401k, a pension, increasingly not a pension, these are the folks who are going to suffer the consequences because the tariffs are going to jack up prices on groceries, gasoline vehicles, our beloved pasture raised bright orange yolk, organic eggs. One estimate says that each American household is going to lose about $1,200 in purchasing

power as a result of what Donald Trump is doing. Now, Trump now admits there will be pain. I'll play that clip for you later, but he says it's worth it. Now, is Trump well-positioned as a billionaire to tell someone with a net worth of very little, whose equity is primarily in their home, who can't weather price spikes, is Trump the right guy to say to Jim Bob and Blanche in Arkansas that it's going to be a little painful, but it's going to be worth it? And if we look historically, we see that these trade wars can really catalyze major problems. You look at Smoot-Hawley. No, it's not Josh Hawley's internet

searches. In 1930, the U.S. tried increasing tariffs to protect domestic farmers, and the result was that global trade collapsed 65%, and the Great Depression got even worse. And economists today are saying, remember Smoot Hawley, not Josh Hawley's YouTube searches, but what happened in the 30s. Trump is either not listening or he doesn't care. Maybe both. Could we be repeating one of the greatest economic blunders in modern history? China was already hit with American tariffs. Now they are going to retaliate further. By the way, at a time when deep seek, China's much more efficient AI model already rattled American tech stocks last week, and the trade war is going to fuel more bad blood and more instability. So expect expect this is for us to be

prepared, right? Expect that if this continues, supply chains could unravel. That's Silicon Valley microchips, your local grocery store's produce aisle. Trump is pushing might makes right. It'll push our allies away. And we are undoing decades of diplomacy in what some analysts are saying, one of the dumbest trade wars in history. Now that's another interesting aspect of it. As I've said, tariffs are a tool. A tool can be good or bad. If I've got a hammer and I'm going to use it to hammer in a nail, beautiful. Everybody's happy. They say, sir, what wisdom. You saw the nail, you brought the hammer. Awesome. If all of a sudden I can't get bluey for my daughter on the TV and I start hammering the TV, all of a sudden the tool is not useful for the job. So some are hoping the White House is

playing a game of very high stakes economic chicken, hoping that Canada, Mexico, China will blink and that this is all going to be undone very quickly. Or we might be on a crash course towards a recession. We don't have the final verdict in. But what history tells us is that if this continues as it is pointing towards, it's going to be very bad. And the new piece that we can now add to it is that Donald Trump knows it. Donald Trump is now conceding flat out. Americans will feel pain because of his new tariffs. And he is forging ahead anyway. costs very quickly to help working families on day one, he's saying you're going to have to suck it up. Not Trump. Trump's not going to have to suck it up, suck it up. But you might have to Trump on the tariffs saying we may indeed have some pain short term and everybody understands it. No, no, I'm not going to say we may have short term, some little pain and people understand that.

But long term, the United States has been ripped off by virtually every country in the world. We have deficits with almost every country, not every country, but almost. And we're going to change it. It's been unfair. That's why we owe $36 trillion. We have deficits with everybody. We help everybody.

We've been helping everybody. We help everybody. We've been helping everybody for years. And to be honest, I don't think they appreciate it. So we're going to change that. We're going to change it fast. We're going to make America great again. We have to focus on our country. We have tremendous potential if properly used. And we have to focus on our country.

Tremendous deficits with China. Tremendous deficits with China, tremendous deficits with the European Union, tremendous deficits with Mexico and Canada. Is Trump right? Do you understand it? Are you happy for some short term pain so that Trump continues to dismiss concerns from economists and manufacturers and farmers, pretty much everybody. Are you comfortable with that? Are you happy to say, I'll pay more for eggs, I'll pay more for avocados, I'll pay more for electronics, I'll pay more for lumber and gas-powered vehicles and electric fuel, I'll pay more for everything because it's for the greater good. Who's greater good? Trump remains laser focused on this tariff blitz. It doesn't matter what happens to your wallet. It doesn't matter

what happens to the jobs. Now, Trump was asked, what do Canada and Mexico need to do for you to lift the tariffs? And Trump said the following. We have to stop people from pouring in and we have to stop fentanyl. And that includes China. Fentanyl has killed this year at least 200,000 people. It's pouring in from China through Mexico and Canada. And they've got to stop it. And if they don't stop it, the tariffs are going to get worse. A lot worse. So in Trump's view, Canada owes the United States. Mexico owes us, despite close ties for a long time.

Some of our biggest trading partners, longstanding trade deals, some of which Trump himself negotiated directly indirectly, during his first term. Trump, for now, is saying, I have no interest in scrapping these tariffs anytime soon. It doesn't matter if it hurts the economy. Does that sound like a guy who cares about you? So Trump is forging ahead, knowing people are going to pay for it in higher prices and in slower growth, but he doesn't care. So the important message here, I would love to have the power to cancel these tariffs. I don't have that power. I'm a guy in a room with a microphone and lately pretty bad lighting. As many of you have pointed out, I can't change that this is going on. What I can tell you is that if you're feeling the pinch in the weekly budget, if you go to the grocery store and you say, wait a second, eggs are up 10% since Trump took office and now he's adding tariffs. Remember who is doing it. Trump asked about what Elon's been doing so far.

He doesn't seem to know, but he says it's all very good. Do you feel that Elon Musk is delivering on his promises to you? Do you feel he's doing a good job right now? I do. I think Elon's doing a good job. He's a big cost cutter. Sometimes we won't agree with it and we'll not go where he wants to go, but I think he's doing a great job. He's a smart guy, very smart, and he's very much into cutting our, the budget of our federal

government. So translation here, Trump has no idea what Elon Musk is doing. Quite frankly, he doesn't care. Doesn't matter if Elon is doing things that are going to be bad for the economy as well. Trump doesn't care. He knows you're going to suffer. He knows the average American is going to suffer. I hope that folks are ready.

To the Trump supporters, my question is, is this what you voted for? I put this out on blue sky. I put out it. People were shocked that I put out an excretion on X. People said, sir, you don't tweet anymore. But I went on X and I put it out, put up an excretion. Is this what the MAGA people voted for? And if you're happy with this, tell me how it's going to benefit the United States. Let's say during Trump's term, I get that over a decade, over 12 to 15 years, we can restructure supply chains and bring some of the domestic manufacturing back at a greater cost, at a greater cost. But in the immediate, even in the medium term, this is shaping up to be a disaster. So we'll take a break.

I do want to remind you, I do have a few more. Oh, this is exciting, by the way. I mentioned last week, if you want a personalized signed copy of my book, the only way to get it right. If your name is, for example, you know, Donald, if your name is Donald, I will say, thanks, Donald, David Packman. We are going to be offering numbered personalized signed copies of my forthcoming book. If you want one, email info at davidpackman.com. Say signed book in the subject. They're going to be about 50 bucks. We've gotten 250 requests so far. I'm trying to make it possible to do 500 of these. They will be numbered. Okay. So email in

in a few days, we will send you a form to, um, we have the capacity and I'll be saying more about that forthcoming. So we'll take a quick break. Uh, and then we'll, we'll get a little rare Republican honesty on these tariffs in a moment. Having the right estate planning done a will, maybe a trust is super important. I recently took care of it myself. It's not the most fun thing to do, but it is super important. I recently took care of it myself. It's not the most fun thing to do, but it is very important. And our sponsor, Trust and Will, makes it really easy. And you can get 10 percent off at trustandwill.com slash Pacman. It's a straightforward process. They walk you

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That's check out our sponsor Zbiotics pre-alcohol probiotic, a tiny shot size drink. You toss back before you have any of those drinks. way to run a show is to be supported directly by the audience so that we don't depend on some media conglomerate that could get decimated by Trump's Justice Department. We are at your mercy, quite frankly. I invite you to sign up at joinpacman.com. We do a daily extra show for our members. There's a whole bunch of other great perks and goodies that you can read about at joinpacman.com. It is not only Donald Trump who recognizes that Americans are going to feel the pain from the trade war that is now in full swing. Yes, you can look at the stock market and you go, that is ugly if you've got a 401k. If you've got any kind of market exposure, it's terrible. But when you go to the grocery store and the car dealership and Home Depot to get wood, some call it lumber, you're also going to see a problem.

And the problem will be higher prices. And it's not only Trump who acknowledges it. Here is radicalized and repugnant Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace, who went on Fox News and acknowledged she's understating it. She's saying there is a potential risk that Donald Trump's policies will raise prices. Take a look at what she had to say. This trade war that has erupted involving the U.S., Mexico, China and Canada. Will it drive up consumer prices? There is a potential risk, as Donald Trump mentioned, but Canada and Mexico, let's face it,

these are the facts. They made their bed and now they can lie in it. I was just participated in a raid on Friday with ICE and HSI Homeland Security Investigations, and they were there to deport an individual, a young man, 18 year old from South America, who a week ago had 3.5 grams of fentanyl, enough to kill 100, maybe 1,000 people or more. These cartels, Trenadio, TDA, and the Sinaloa cartel, MS-13 gangs, they're everywhere across my home state of South Carolina. They're everywhere across every community across the country. And we have to play hardball with these countries who know where the meth labs are. They know where fentanyl is coming in. They know where illegals are coming in, pouring into our country, killing us even in many of our communities.

You know, this is one of those situations where the economics are quite simple. You know, there are more complicated economic concepts for sure, some of which I learned in college, some of which I've even since forgotten. There are complicated economic concepts. The path through which tariffs raise prices for the average consumer in the short and medium term is not complicated. And in fact, it's so simple that even somebody like Nancy Mace, who has no idea about economics, gets it and acknowledges it. Now there's two sort of sides to the push poll that we now have where these Republicans are increasingly saying prices may go up short term. They're, They're acknowledging that because Trump has acknowledged it. Prices may go up short term, but this will be good longer term.

They are setting themselves up so that no matter what happens, if prices just skyrocket with no benefit, they can go, you know, I support this president. But I've been saying prices very well could go up. They can get away with that. If Americans mutiny against Trump's policy, these very same Republicans can say, I warned about this, but I still believe that long term these were the right idea so that they can also try to stay in Trump's good graces. People like Nancy Mace, who have a naked thirst to be adjacent to power are going to say whatever they need to say to try to stay on everyone's good side, which is what a lot of people try

to do with Donald Trump. The problem that they are going to run into is it's going to be really hard seven months from now when eggs are at another record high, which the USDA is predicting. It's going to be hard to pretend you didn't know. Fox News is trying to get ahead of it. They put together a scrolling list of the goods to be affected by Donald Trump's tariffs. Take a look at this. It's a like and thank God for Doge. They're looking at waste, fraud and abuse. Just got access to Treasury payment accounts to showcase all of the fraud going on billions and billions of dollars.

They're already saving billions of dollars a day. We have to look at spending. We have to look at tax cuts as well. But it's very important. There are multiple factors that go into inflation. We have to recognize that and try to fight our way forward and grow the economy in a way that wages grow with the challenges we have ahead and that people can afford eggs and gas again. We can't do that right now until we fix the system. We were just looking at a scrolling list of some of the products and companies that are going to be affected. It seems like virtually every sector of the American economy potentially could be targeted by these tariffs and the tariffs that Mexico and Canada have now announced that they will institute against U.S. goods. It's quite a list. It's quite a list. And

we're going to talk about that in a moment. And as a sort of bonus, the USDA, the United States Department of Agriculture, has announced that egg prices will likely hit a record high in 2025. Well, new breaking news. They already have, uh, since Donald Trump became the president, um, egg prices reaching seven Oh nine per dozen. I last week, I didn't even notice. I said $7.09 per gallon. I was kind of mixing stuff up. $7.09 per dozen for eggs. This is not only the highest price in 2025. This is not only the highest price of the last decade. This is the highest price ever for eggs, and they seem to be going in the same direction. And that is what I want to talk about next. Tariffs effectively are attacks on consumers. And that means you end up paying more at the car dealership at the checkout counter. So I want to go through a few things that if you're considering

buying, you may want to buy sooner than later, or you may want to stock up on to the degree that you can. If you are looking to get an electric vehicle, if you're looking to go greener, the reality here is that number one, it is believed Donald Trump is going to get rid of the $7,500 federal tax credit on electric vehicles. And in addition to that, a lot of the parts are very much connected to a global supply chain. So electric vehicle technology may be the future. Maybe it's interesting to you. You may want to move quickly before prices go way up. Now you might be saying, well, David, I don't want any of that sissy

liberal stuff. I don't care that the electric vehicles are super fast. And if you've got a garage, you can heat or cool the vehicle in the garage without having to worry about carbon monoxide. I don't care that the charging is cheaper than the gasoline. I want an American gas powered vehicle. Well, if you've got your heart set on a gas guzzler, you'll probably feel the pinch as well because a lot of internal combustion engine vehicles are either assembled or have components assembled or have partial assembly done in Canada and Mexico. So any new car, really, it's not about gas versus electric. Vehicles or amalgamations of components from across the globe, including Canada, Mexico, you are going to start paying more. But there's more to that. If it is a gas-powered vehicle,

the gasoline is likely going to start costing much more because as we said earlier, Trump's tariffs, unless he's playing high stakes chicken and he's going to bail off from bail out from it, a bunch of our oil that is refined into gasoline comes from Canada. So maybe you want to start stocking up on gasoline as well. We of course have eggs. Now I know that it's kind of random, like David, why are you talking about eggs? Eggs have become, the price of eggs has become sort of emblematic of this trade war. And we are at a record high price right now. USDA says expect more high prices in 2025. Can you really stock up on eggs? You know, there's a limit, I guess, to it. I've never looked into freezing eggs. I'm not recommending anybody do it,

but it does seem as though egg prices are going to go through the roof. What about something like avocados? You know, avocados from Mexico. It is not just a millennial meme. If you were concerned about the price of avocados, um, and prices continue to go up, you can apparently freeze avocados. I'm told it's better to have them and scoop out the two halves of the flesh intact, really seal it airtight, and then you can freeze it. It's crazy that I'm even talking about this. I did not think a week ago I would be talking to you about freezing avocados, but it's likely to become another price spike sort of index. And then maybe like more seriously, if you're looking at doing a home addition, lumber, lumber costs already have

been up recently, partially because of the pandemic, but also because of tariffs on Canadian timber. If we see a ramp up in Canadian tariffs, the way Trump is announcing, if you're thinking of building an addition or renovating, you probably want to secure those materials sooner rather than later. And then, I mean, listen, sugar, maple syrup, nuts, cooking oil, I'm sort of thinking of things that last a little while that are less perishable. You may want to look at stocking up on these things sooner than later. Now, what's the problem with stocking up? This becomes its own self-fulfilling prophecy because as we saw during the pandemic, when people expect a shortage, they go and they buy way more than they normally would.

Similarly, when people expect the price increase, they go and they buy way more than they normally would. And it starts to create a supply chain issue, which will only make the trade and tariff situation even worse. So I don't, this is not necessarily advice. The solution can become its own problem. But what I am hearing from a lot of folks is that they aren't sure what to do. And you can see the market instability around this as well. So my question to you, are you planning to stock up on anything? Are you making any financial adjustments or moves based on what may be forthcoming? We will go through the replies and I'll highlight some of the things that folks are doing. So let's take a break.

I am going to deal with the Greg Palast viral article about election fraud after this short break. Many of you have been emailing saying, David, everybody else has weighed in. What do you think about Greg Palast's alleged whistleblower article? We will talk about that after this very short break. Guys in my audience, I know you're tired of the chafing with traditional underwear. Our sponsor sheath makes the most comfortable boxer briefs I've ever worn. If you're sick of the boxers that are too loose or the briefs that are too tight, sheath is for you. Sheath underwear is designed with two special pouches in the front. Keeps everything separate in its own compartment

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Algorithms control what we see every day to serve corporate and political interests, which is why I've trusted Ground News for years to help me find the truth. Ground News doesn't tell you what to think. They show you each news outlet's biases, credibility, financial incentives. So, you know, who's benefiting from the way each news outlet spins each story. You can even filter out certain sources you don't want and stay informed without getting buried in the noise. Stay engaged with ground news who is fixing what is breaking right in front of us, trust and transparency in the media. Ground news is giving my audience

50% off the same vantage plan that I use. Go to ground dot news slash Pacman. The link is in the podcast notes. All right, I am now going to talk about the article by Greg Palast claiming that Donald Trump actually lost the 2024 election, that there were millions of votes stolen by Donald Trump, and that were it not for that, Kamala Harris would be and really is the rightful winner of the 2024 election. Now, let me start just by laying out my standard. When it comes to elections, objectivity is a necessity. In 2020, we had these allegations of voter fraud, election fraud that dominated the headlines. Trump and his allies said

Trump really won. Biden stole it through widespread fraud involving five, six, seven different mechanisms. And at the time, what I said is I will scrutinize the claims. I didn't dismiss them out of hand. I looked at them. I demanded evidence. I applied rigorous standards to separate fact from fact, fact from fiction and hyperbole and conjecture from a sober analysis. And I determined Joe Biden genuinely won the 2020 election. So now we're looking at the 2024 election. It's a similar situation, but the roles are reversed. And there are some making allegations of voter fraud and voter suppression against Trump's victory, arguing that Harris is the rightful winner. And we have to analyze it in the exact same way. Now, there's a piece by Greg Palast making these claims that's going viral.

And I care about election fairness. I care about election objectivity. And I care about being honest with you. So we have to look at Greg Palast's recent article, Trump Lost vote suppression one and analyze the claim, which says that voter suppression tactics ranging from purging voter rolls to the disqualification of mail-in ballots cost Kamala Harris, the presidency. We have to look at these claims one by one. Now I do suggest that you read the entire article, maybe even pause, pause this video now and read the entire article, maybe even pause this video now and read the entire article because I'm going to summarize what the article says. The article in a simplified format argues that restrictive voting laws, purged voter rolls and disqualified ballots disproportionately affected voters of color, costing Kamala Harris millions of votes such that she otherwise would have won.

The numbers that Pallast cites are 4.7 million voters purged from the rolls, 2.1 million mail-in ballots disqualified, 1.2 million provisional ballots rejected among other figures. And he argues that black voters were 900 percent more likely to have their ballots rejected than white voters based on a study by the U.S. Civil Rights Commission. The totality of the effect that Pallast claims these mechanisms had is that without those suppression tactics, Kamala Harris would have won. She would have won the popular vote by 1.2 million votes, and she would have received 286 electoral votes by flipping states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Here's the main problem that I find as I analyze each claim. A lot of the people reporting on this are just taking Greg Palast's claims and saying, look at what happened. But Greg Palast does not provide compelling evidence for his calculations

nor sourcing for the data as relevant to 2024. Let me explain. Greg Palast's article raises valid concerns about voter suppression, and several of his key claims point to real issues in general. But the specific numbers that he uses, and especially how he uses to claim that Harris really won, are based sometimes on outdated information, sometimes on questionable extrapolation, and sometimes on exaggerated numbers. Let me break it down. For example, Greg Palast says that a study by the U.S. Civil Rights Commission claims black voters are 900% more likely to have ballots rejected than white voters. This is significantly higher than every other reputable study looking at the

same thing. I'll give you an example. A 2020 study by Daniel Smith, who's a political scientist at University of Florida, found that black and Hispanic voters are twice as likely to have ballots rejected than white voters. That's a disaster. That's a very troubling disparity. But if you assume for a moment that among those disqualified and purged ballots, black and Hispanic voters are only 100 percent more likely rather than 900 percent more likely to have ballots rejected. The entire argument is immediately undermined. His case that Harris really won evaporates if you say, yes, black and Hispanic voters are more likely to have ballots rejected, but only by 100 percent, not by 900 percent. You've all of a sudden got no argument. Palast is basing a lot of this calculation on the last 5, 16 years, mail-in voting systems have been dramatically improved. We went through COVID and an overwhelming increase in voting from

home. And in 2020, the rejection rate was only 0.8%. In 2016, the rejection rate was only 1%. So once again, Greg Palast is saying, let's assume the rejection rate of 15 years ago. And if we do that and you accept every other claim, maybe what he's arguing is valid. Maybe. But we have much more recent data. And if we say, let's assume a rejection rate similar to 2020, his case is no longer valid. This is what we have to really look at. This would be like me saying, I don't think you should get a certain treatment for a disease because the treatment is only 20% effective. But that's the efficacy of a treatment that was around 20 years ago. If right now we have a treatment that's 60% effective, it wouldn't be valid for me to say, don't get the treatment. It's only 20% effective. You's 60% effective, it wouldn't be valid for me to say,

don't get the treatment. It's only 20% effective. You'd say, David, it's been 20 years. We have better treatment at this point. And similarly, that 21% lost vote rate is based on a survey where non-voters were asked, why didn't you vote? And the MIT paper itself acknowledges it's almost certainly an exaggeration because a lot of people don't like to admit, I just didn't vote. That it's self-reported. And the architects of that study say a bunch of these people are claiming, I didn't, you know, I did vote, but it wasn't counted or I didn't get a ballot. A whole bunch of those people just didn't vote because they chose not to vote. And if you acknowledge even a 10% inflation there, the argument also falls apart. Now, finally, Pallast claims that

voter suppression, he ties all of this together like the weave, and he says voter suppression cost Kamala Harris 3.6 million votes. That would have flipped the election in her favor. He doesn't break that down. He just doesn't break down how he arrived at that number. He says, well, you know, I've got this 2008 rejection number. If Greg Palast were to say, we have a 0.8% ballot rejection rate, which is what we had in 2020. If he acknowledges that some of the whole lost vote thing is people not wanting to admit, I just simply didn't vote. If you do all of those adjustments, you can't possibly end up with 3.5 million votes lost for Harris. And I would even take it a step further. Even if you could acknowledge or if you could defend the total number of lost votes, he is extrapolating a lot to tell us how many of those lost votes

would have been lost for Harris rather than Trump. This is the same problem the 2020 Trump people have. They go, oh, there were vans with ballots and massive dumps and more votes than voters. Even if you, all of those claims have been wrong from the MAGA people. But even if many of those claims were correct, it still isn't demonstrated that it helped one candidate over the other. And because Greg Palast's estimate for how much more likely non-white voters are to have ballots rejected

are completely overblown. I just don't see anything here of real substance other than conjecture. Now, I want to acknowledge voter suppression is real. Voter suppression is ongoing in the United States. It does disproportionately affect communities of color. But Greg Palast is overstating the impact of that in 2024. He is extrapolating and using older data when apparently convenient. And I cannot honestly come to you and say, I can back up the data or even corroborate the data that Greg Palast is asserting. And I can't be on board with the extrapolations and conjecture that he is putting forward. And in fact, one of the things we know from 20, a lot of this stuff is 2008 data, 2016, et cetera. What we know from the exit polling

is that voter enthusiasm for Democrats was down. Economic conditions or the belief about them influenced many voters to either stay home or vote for Trump, who otherwise might have been Democratic voters. That we know from the exit polling. And Greg Palast is giving us extrapolated data, in some cases based on 16-year-old statistics. For me, it's not convincing. If I'm missing something, here's my challenge to you. Get me actual sourced data for what happened in 2024 or recalculate his analysis based on the known disproportionate rejection rate

for black and Hispanic voters and the more recent mail- disproportionate rejection rate for black and Hispanic voters, and the more recent mail-in ballot rejection rate, and then tell me where we come out, I think it's simple arithmetic, and you would not be able to conclude that Kamala Harris really won this election. That's where I'm landing. All right, let's cut right to it. The Trump administration has essentially handed Elon Musk and his little

doge crew the keys to the government, the keys to the system that handles trillions in government payments every single year. I believe this is a form of industrial espionage. Only a small number of treasury professionals typically get near the system that Elon Musk is now all over. In swoops, Musk, two USAID officials get put on leave for not playing ball. A top treasury official suddenly retires after resisting. And this is a major red flag. Now, why should we be worried other than Elon Musk's seeming incompetence? Well, I'll tell you why. Because Musk doesn't just run Tesla. He's got satellites, space travel, social media,

AI ventures, you name it. And you might think, oh, having a cozy insider to government data and secure facilities might just give him a leg up over the competition or even let him shape policy to favor his companies. And that, I would argue, is a form of industrial espionage. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's ordering agencies to strip diversity and LGBT resources from websites. Career staffers are panicking over the purge vibe that's going on. It's chaos. And the people who are benefiting are the billionaire and his buddies who have sort of weaseled their way into government systems while the real grown

ups and the career experts are sidelined or are quitting or are getting fired. Now, the question we are left with is whether we are going to let a billionaire mogul have near total access to the federal payment pipelines and the personal information of millions of Americans without blinking. And it appears as though MAGA is happy to do that. I'm not. I know many of you aren't. And this is about more than just the full faith and credit of the United States. This is about using government for private gain.

It's the dictionary definition of corruption. And anyone claiming this is about efficiency, how can it? It's an insult to our intelligence to claim that this is about efficiency. Career officials who know the critical nature of these systems are getting booted for saying, you know, I'm not sure a random billionaire should be tinkering around here. Trump wants him tinkering. Elon wants to tinker. He wants to slash federal spending. He wants to tear down oversight.

And MAGA's happy to let him do it. So we have to state it plainly. If Elon Musk is accessing government data that could give him a strategic advantage, it's industrial espionage, even if it's stamped official, just because you say to Elon, have at it, here's the password, here's the codes. Just because you do that doesn't mean it isn't industrial espionage. And if you think Elon's doing it out of the goodness of his heart, you know, I've got some, I've got a meme coin to sell you or whatever. So it's a dangerous mix of private greed,

public power. And can we do anything but hope that someone is able to pump the brakes because it doesn't seem anyone's going to. It's the trifecta. I've been talking about this trifecta with you. It's oligarchy, it's kleptocracy, and it's kakistocracy rolled into one. A billionaire getting personal control of government systems, that's the oligarchy part. Trump's administration handing over public resources and taxpayer data for private gain. That's the kleptocracy part. And then it's all being driven by leaders who were completely reckless and unethical.

That's the kakistocracy part of the entire thing. Can anyone stop it? Will anyone stop it sooner than 2026? I don't know, guys. I want to be optimistic, but I'm finding it very hard to be. Many people in the audience know I speak multiple languages. I first learned Spanish when I was born in Argentina. Then I learned English. I learned some Hebrew in Hebrew school. I learned French in junior and high school. I am no stranger to the language learning process. And one of the most useful tools I've ever used is the app called Babel. The way our sponsor Babel teaches you languages truly works and it works fast.

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United States' closest allies, closest trading partners. And I'm going to tell you that this is shaping up to be a self-inflicted wound of epic proportions and one that could further alienate blue state Americans from Donald Trump and his agenda. But something very interesting is being done where British Columbia is specifically targeting the red states with retaliatory moves. So let me explain what's going on. As we talked about at the top of the show, Trump, in his infinite wisdom, has decided to impose a 25% tariff on most Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products. like fentanyl production, border security. It's very much not about solving real problems and more about just being a protectionist clown for things he either misheard or misunderstood. And as usual, Trump's approach,

you know, we need a velvet glove and Trump has a sledgehammer. And the consequences are going to unfold very quickly. In comes British Columbia Premier David Ebby, who has decided we're not going to sit back and take it. And this is a very interesting move to understand. It's strategic and it's also symbolic. David Ebby announced immediate countermeasures, including a ban on purchasing American liquor from the red states. If your state voted Trump, your bourbon, your whiskey, other spirits are no longer welcome in British Columbia on the liquor store shelves. And this might sound like a minor slap on the wrist, but it is a targeted strike

at industries and states that are politically aligned with Donald Trump. And it could have real economic repercussions on those regions. Now, as many of you already know, we've talked about how in the United States, the blue state economies are far more dynamic on average than red state economies. Red states often have one industry, whereas blue states economies are far more dynamic on average than red state economies. Red states often have one industry, whereas blue states tend to be more dynamic and have many different industries. California has agriculture and Silicon Valley and more. Massachusetts has biomedical technology and healthcare and education and publishing. Okay, we've given these examples before. Many red states just have agriculture or oil or whatever. So the red states

whose economies are already less dynamic are being specifically targeted here by British Columbia. Now let's zoom out for a moment. What British Columbia is doing here is more than just retaliation. It's sort of a masterclass in how to hit where it hurts, because by focusing on red states rather than retaliating across the United States, Canada is taking a shot at turning Trump's own base against him. If you're a distiller in Kentucky or you're a winemaker in Texas and your biggest export market is saying no more, who are you going to blame? Sure, you can blame David Ebby in British Columbia, but it's so transparent and so obvious that Trump is the reason for all of this. And that's where it starts to get very interesting, because it's a type of retaliation that is

not targeting the American economy as a whole. It's targeting the industries and the voters that Donald Trump claims to champion. You have to admit, it's quite a political chess move that Canada is playing brilliantly. Now what are the broader implications of this? Trump's tariffs are already causing concerns for British Columbia's economy. Sixty nine billion dollar loss is what's calculated if Trump's tariffs on Canada stay in place through twenty twenty eight. Sixty nine billion is what it would cost British Columbia alone. But it's not just a Canadian problem

because out of every six pieces of lumber used in the United States, five come from Canada. So when the tariffs make Canadian lumber 25% more expensive, who's going to feel the pinch? It'll be American construction companies. It'll be American consumers, especially in the housing market where costs are already sky high. It's

another example of Trump's policies backfiring on the very people he claims to be helping. Let's also not forget the political fallout. Blue state Americans are already skeptical of Donald Trump's policies. They're going to be even more opposed to him because they're going to see the ripple effects of the tariffs, housing costs up, expensive goods. And so the retaliatory measures are hurting American industries. It's a really perfect storm of economic pain. I wouldn't wish it on anybody. Now, meanwhile, we are sort of falling into this, as long as Trump reverses this soon, we'll be fine. Everybody will be fine. Canada is seeing this as an opportunity to reduce its reliance on the United States altogether.

David Ebby is fast-tracking $20 billion in local projects, renewable energy, mines, natural gas, and diversifying trade relationships beyond the United States. So what they are setting up to do is to get away from trading with the United States, even if and when Trump says, all right, I'm not going to do it, I'm going to cancel it. That's a potentially long-term disaster.

Now, I want to say one other thing about the fentanyl issue. Trump is now claiming that fentanyl is one of the reasons that he is doing the tariffs with Canada. It's a global problem. Requires international cooperation. It requires so many things, but not punitive trade measures. And Ebi rightly pointed out that sitting down with Canadian leaders to talk about the fentanyl issue would have been the adult thing to do. It would have been the productive thing to do. That's not what Trump did. So where that leaves us is tariffs are a disaster in the making.

Canada's response is a reminder that other countries aren't going to roll over. British Columbia's response is one where they are saying, we won't even just hurt everybody. We will target the Trump aligned states and industries and businesses. And in the end, it's just another example of Trump's short sighted zero sum, zero sum approach to this stuff. And even if he says, all right, it was a bad idea, which he would never do, Trump would always go, it succeeded, so I will now cancel it. We may not be able to go back to exactly where we were, at least not if British Columbia has anything to say about it. Donald Trump's trade war is also just making the people of other countries really dislike us. The tension over Trump's trade war is playing out not just in government offices and in offices of industry.

It's playing out in public life. Over the weekend at an Ottawa Senators NHL hockey game, fans booed the American national anthem as it was performed. This is not the way it used to be. Oh, Canada Our home and native land So it seems as though the boos started early in the national anthem, died down a bit, and then grew louder near the end. We have another example of this from the Toronto Raptors game over the weekend. It's not. So I am not going to pretend that a hockey crowd and a basketball crowd booing are the biggest news in the world.

It's not. But it is a microcosm of a deeper frustration. Canadians, many of whom share cultural and political values with the United States, they are openly showing their disapproval of the aggressive trade policies that Trump is implementing. They don't see it as a playful political stunt. They see it as an insult. They see it as a threat to their economy, and they don't like it. And this is a sign that what we saw under Trump's first term is happening again. There's a resentment. There is a hostility to the United States as represented by the Trump

administration, and it's coming from places that we would normally consider friendly territory. It's familiar because we saw it during Donald Trump's first term. Remember the G7 summit where Trump clashed with Canadian and European leaders? And we said, these are our historical allies. Meanwhile, Trump is playing love letters with dictatorial authoritarians. And instead of nuanced negotiation and multilateral agreements, we get these abrupt tariffs and Canadians are angry. These are our friends.

And I know that it's really popular among Trump world and MAGA world to do this isolationist stuff. We don't need anybody else. We don't want anybody else. We can do everything ourselves perfectly and it'll be great. The problem is that we really can't. These trade policies don't exist in a vacuum. And what Canada is doing is being watched by Europe. It's being watched by Asia. And we look increasingly like an unreliable trade partner and it hurts our economic standing and it hurts our credibility. We've talked about this with regard to other agreements. When Trump cancels the Iran nuclear deal in his first term, he just didn't like it. And Iran hadn't violated it. We seem like we are capricious children pooping in the sandbox because someone told us it's time

to go home. And when Trump gets out of the Paris Climate Agreement or out of the WHO or says we might not come to the shared defense of NATO allies, even though that's what we agreed to, we seem like unreliable children. And so that's the real concern. When fans boo the national anthem at a hockey game in Ottawa, it's representative of the bigger problem. And what happens when we need Canadian support for a security-related issue? What happens if we need Mexico's help with a migration or public health crisis? They're going to say, you guys are unreliable. You did punitive things. You did childish things. We are not incentivized to go and to help you. And that's the really terrifying thing here. So we're going to continue

talking about this. We'll talk about it on the bonus show. We'll talk about it tomorrow. In a sense, I would argue that the United States, what's the theme of today's show? The United States is under attack from Trump and Musk, making us the target for so many of our historical allies. We'll talk about it more on the bonus show. Would love for you to sign up at joinpacman.com. Pre-order my book, The Echo Machine, now just weeks away. What are we? Six weeks away? At davidpakman.com slash book. And if you would like a personalized signed copy, email info at davidpakman.com.

They're gonna be 50 bucks if you're in the US. They're gonna be $62 if you are international. I know, I know. It's just what it is. They've gotta be shipped multiple times and we're requiring a whole additional team to manage this stuff. The book is 20 something bucks everywhere, okay?

If you want the personalized numbered signed copy, email info at davidpakman.com with the subject line signed book and we will attempt to make it a reality for you. So I will see you on the bonus show and then I'll be right back here tomorrow.