The David Pakman Show - 6/3/24: Conviction destroys Trump's polling, Lauren Boebert debate collapse

Episode Date: June 3, 2024

-- On the Show: -- A deep dive that steelmans the case that Donald Trump has the certain path to the Presidency, to be followed on tomorrow's show by a similar deep dive arguing it is Biden, not Trump, with the clear path to victory -- New post-conviction polling is devastating to Donald Trump, revealing 49% of independent voters believe he should drop out of the race -- Fox News guest John Carney predicted a stock market crash if Trump was convicted, and he really got that one wrong -- Republican Congresswoman Lauren Boebert is absolutely destroyed during a recent Congressional debate, not only by her fellow challengers but also by debate moderator Kyle Clark -- Considering an unlikely but possible scenario in which Judge Juan Merchan may feel he has no choice but to sentence Donald Trump to prison -- Failed former President and convicted felon Donald Trump's worst interview in a long time comes on Fox N Friends just after his recent conviction on 34 felony counts -- A soaking wet Donald Trump rants and rails so outrageously in a post-conviction speech that CNBC, CNN, and MSNBC all cut away -- Voicemail caller says David's eyes are too close together -- On the Bonus Show: Claudia Sheinbaum will become the first woman and first Jewish person to be President of Mexico after easily winning the election, Donald Trump joins TikTok after saying it should be banned, publisher of "2000 Mules" conspiracy film issues apology, much more... 🌱 Ounce of Hope: Get a THC Seltzer for just $5 at https://ounceofhope.com 👍 Buy the FÜM Journey Pack and use code PAKMAN for a FREE GIFT at https://tryfum.com/pakman 🖼️ Aura Frames: Use code PAKMAN for $30 OFF & free shipping at https://auraframes.com/pakman 💪 Athletic Greens is offering FREE year-supply of Vitamin D at https://athleticgreens.com/pakman -- Become a Member: https://www.davidpakman.com/membership -- Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/davidpakmanshow -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/ -- Pakman Discord: https://www.davidpakman.com/discord -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow -- Leave a Voicemail: (219)-2DAVIDP

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Let's start with the post-conviction polling for Donald Trump. If it is to be believed, it is absolutely devastating. I know that we go back and forth about what the polling says about the impact of a conviction on Donald Trump's chance of winning. The reality is that the reason we go back and forth is polling seems to shift from time to time. But we now actually have had a conviction, 34 counts guilty felonies sentencing is June or July 11th rather. And we now are starting to get data after he has actually been convicted. Not how would your vote change if he were to be convicted? But he's been convicted. What do you think? Forty nine percent

of independents believe Donald Trump should straight up drop out of this race. One of the Axios reports, one of the first polls conducted since the New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records, finds a significant minority of Republicans and independents want him to drop out and a majority of registered voters approve of the jury's decision. This is devastating news for Donald Trump. This is morning consult. Fifty four percent of registered voters strongly or somewhat approve of the guilty verdict.

Forty nine percent of independents say Trump should drop out because of the conviction. And 15 percent of Republicans say that Donald Trump should drop out. The polls found the race tied forty five to forty four, basically Biden, 45, Trump, 44, which is wild. Axios includes a reality check. While they may agree with the guilty verdict, the poll found more voters think Trump should get probation. Forty nine percent rather than go to prison.

Forty four percent. That's pretty close. While, of course, it's ultimately going to be up to a judge. And we will talk later about what that would mean. So, you know, you can slice and dice these polls any number of different ways. The critically important part of this that is to be considered. And I'm going to make this case later on today. We're doing a little thing today's show and tomorrow's show. Today, I'm going to steel man the case that Trump is going to win in November and tomorrow I'm going to steel man the case that Joe Biden is going to win. The point of these exercises is to show that it's going to

be really close and you can find a seemingly obvious case that either candidate is going to win. But we'll get to that later. The point here is when the election will almost certainly come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a few states, we have to assume even small changes in voter opinion can make a difference. Before the conviction, we had some polling which said something. I don't remember. It was something like 70 percent of Republicans won't change their votes based on the conviction. And what was relevant about that is 30 percent of Republicans are willing to consider changing their vote when some of these states come down to 20 or 30 thousand votes, 11000 votes. Give me a break. That's more than enough to potentially make a huge, huge difference.

So just because the numbers are small in some cases doesn't mean they can't swing an election. And when you see forty nine percent of independents say the guy should drop out, we have to assume a large portion of that. Forty nine percent is just not going to vote for the guy at the end of the day. So we're continuing to get more polling. This is just one of many polls. But of course, it's hard to find good news in the conviction. And later on, we'll get to some of the things that that I tweeted and people's reactions. There is a movement that immediately after the conviction said Trump just won this thing. It's over. Trump just won. The stock market went up on the conviction

because of confidence that now Trump will definitely win. Is that possible? It's possible. Is there any fact based case that there is now a better, stronger case to be made that Donald Trump is going to win because of the conviction. I find it really hard to find any evidence of that in the data. And at the end of the day, that's what I care about. It's the data, not just whatever opinion I can come up with. So first cut post-conviction polling, absolutely devastating to Donald Trump. Fox predicted a market crash if Trump were to be convicted. And then the Dow Jones industrial average on Friday had one of its best days of the year, climbing nearly 600 points. Take a look at this. This is video of Fox News guest John Carney from Breitbart saying on Thursday, if today Trump gets convicted, the market is going to crash.

It could be thousands of thousand points or two percentage points. It's going to be terrible. Listen to this. I want to I want to get I want to get John in for for one final comment. If there is a conviction, what happens to markets tomorrow? Very simple. I think markets crash tomorrow if there's a conviction. But I think they will bounce back because, look, even if they put Donald Trump in jail, I think the American people will vote him into president. We will vote him into the White House right out of the New York City jail. It's an outrageous trial and people can see. But

if there's a conviction, you think there'll be a cry? I think the markets will do very badly. What are you talking about? A thousand point loss? I think we'll see at least a two percent drop. OK. Wow. What a strong prediction.

The market will crash because Trump gets convicted. But then when people realize he'll be president from prison, that will have such a stabilizing effect on the country that the president will be in prison, that then it will boost the market again at some point in the future. Well, you know what happened? The Dow didn't lose a thousand points. The Dow was up almost 600 points on Friday, one of the best days of the year. So then what do they do when their bogus predictions are contradicted by fact? They simply revise and find some new way to justify what took place. They reverse and check out the comments to my tweet here in a moment. People say Trump's conviction is giving confidence

that he will win. And that's why the stock market is going up. I tweeted tongue in cheek with an image of the Dow climbing. As you can see, the markets are reacting very negatively to Trump's conviction. Of course, that's a joke. The markets reacted very positively and without a shred of irony nor dignity, I would add some of the people responding to me saying, quote, probably because they think his odds of winning went up, to which I responded hardcore copium. But more importantly, Trump's odds of winning seem to have declined since the verdict, at least based on new polling, which we discussed earlier. So, you know, I think the stock market is a very interesting tool to use because you can project onto the stock market.

You can project your dreams, you can project your desires, et cetera. But the interesting thing about the stock market as a tool is that it's just numbers is you could just look at the numbers. And as many of you remember, Donald Trump made a prediction in 2020 that if Joe Biden were to win, the stock market would collapse. Everyone's 401ks and other retirement accounts would be worth nothing. And it would be a 1929 style depression. Of course, that hasn't happened. And in fact, we've seen in the stock market record after record after record all time high, which if initially MAGA people just ignored when they couldn't ignore it, they started to say, well, the reason the stock market is doing well is because of the expectation

that Trump is going to be president. Now again, Trump is predicting if Joe Biden wins this November, you're going to get a 1929 style crash. The stock market will be in the toilet. It's going to be terrible for everyone's 401k retirement accounts in a perfect world or even just in a sane world. No one would fall for that yet again. They seem to be falling for it again based on the Twitter replies where people are saying the market is up only because of the belief that thanks to Trump's conviction, he's going to be president again, which I find

extraordinarily difficult to believe as an explanation. And then finally, I do think it's important to mention and I know most of you know it, but if I don't mention it, when I talk about the stock market, people will get mad. They'll say, David, the stock market isn't the economy. I'm not claiming that it's the economy. What I'm claiming is that the behavior of the stock market is directly contradicting what the mega people have predicted and told us would happen if Trump if Biden wins, it'll crash. It didn't. If Trump gets convicted, it'll crash. It didn't. Oh, well, it didn't crash because everybody expects Trump's going to come back. And Trump is so good for the stock market, except except we've run the numbers. And if you go back as far as we have stock market data since the political realignment

where Democrats and Republicans are more or less what they are today, stocks do better under Democratic presidents. So that's sort of like the final nail in the coffin of that hypothesis. So just not going well, the predictions really not going well. And we will ultimately see what happens in terms of a bounce back or not. And Trump's presidency later in the show, we'll talk about what those paths might look like. So let's take a very quick break.

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That's ounce of hope dot com. Pick up one of their THC seltzers for just five bucks. Use the code Pacman to get 20 percent off everything else. The info is in the podcast notes. motivation can be hard, especially when life gets heavy and the bad habit seems to be what's keeping you sane. Thankfully, fume is here to help you prioritize your health in a way that will not disrupt your daily life. Introducing fumes award winning flavored air device that is quickly becoming the leading alternative to smoking and to vaping. The point of fume is to satisfy the hand to mouth fixation of some of these bad habits, which makes healthy change feel even easier. The fume device is sleek. It's sophisticated. You can fidget with it. There is no nicotine here, only natural ingredients like plant extracts and

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competition. She was totally buried in a debate gone wrong, unable to beat off attacks coming not only from her fellow candidates, but even in the form of factual pointed questions from the debate moderator, Kyle Clark, who did a tremendous job. Kyle Clark is an anchor for next on nine news, and he did an excellent, excellent job at keeping Lauren Boebert accountable, asked about the theater fiasco involving Lauren Boebert. She spits out a bizarre word salad and is confronted very effectively by Kyle Clark. Take a look at this.

That was about the softest reference that he could have made. But you want to talk about the theater thing? Sure. So, Kyle, I certainly have owned out. have owned up to my night out in Denver. And I've gone on that public apology tour and I'm grateful for the mercy and grace that has been shown, but I'm not going to continue to live life in shame and be beat up by this. And I would like to go back to my legislative record for just a second. We're not going to do that. You had plenty of time to answer the question. You chose not to.

That's fine. I just want to make sure. And you have apologized for the theater incident. I certainly have. And I just want to make sure. Did you apologize for the behavior that went on with you and your date or the vaping? Or did you apologize for lying to voters about what you did that night and the disrespect that you showed to service workers that night? What specifically were you apologizing for? I don't believe there was disrespect. There were things that were absolutely taken out of context. There's video of your interactions with service workers. I'm just, I'm asking, are you apologizing for the lying to voters? I did not. So, I mean, I think it's been very mischaracterized. I'm apologizing for you, Kyle Clark, getting footage and releasing that

and people seeing this in a very private moment. Certainly. It was very important to figure out whether you were telling the truth or whether a public agency was lying about your conduct. You just had an interview with CityCast Denver. You were saying how disgusting it is to record someone without their knowledge. And you's use that same thing. Not going well, not going well. Lauren Boebert really struggling here to make any coherent sense whatsoever. At another point during this debate, Kyle Clark brilliantly, brilliantly points out that Lauren Boebert is taking credit for projects funded by bills that she voted against.

Total blatant hypocrisy. And he calls her out and it goes just as poorly. This is really a masterclass. Let's talk about the use of earmarks in Congress. Members request funding for pet projects. That's what an earmark is. And some Republicans have rejected that process as like wasteful and corrupt and that kind of thing. Colorado's Republican congressman, well, former Ken Buck, did not participate in earmarks.

Retiring Republican Congressman Doug Lamborn did not use earmarks. Ms. Bovert, when you were elected to Congress, you said that earmarks were wasteful. You said they foster corruption. You said they're a way to buy votes. And then you decided to start using them, too. So let me ask all of you, show of hands, please. Will you participate in the earmark process if elected to Congress? Absolutely. That is a yes from Mr. Lynch. It depends on next year's rules. Pardon me, please allow me to say these people's names, okay? Mr. Lynch, Mr. Holtorf,

Mr. Sonnenberg, a no on earmarks from Mr. Yu. It depends. It depends from Ms. Flora. Okay, so I wanted to ask a follow-up question on the issue of earmarks, Ms. Boebert. You've repeatedly taken credit for projects in Colorado that you asked for funding for, but then you voted against the bill in the end. Bridge over the Roaring Fork River in Glenwood Springs, water treatment plant in Gunnison, I-70 interchange in Grand Junction. You're able to vote no and get the praise for voting no because you know that there are enough other Republicans who are willing to vote for those bills, so they'll pass. My question for you is this, and just a short answer, it truly is a yes or no question. If you were the deciding vote,

would you still have voted no and killed all of those projects in Colorado that you now take credit for? Yes, and I would have worked through a process to get those over the line, but I worked to get those in and I have had over 80 initiatives signed into law through the appropriations. I appreciate the direct answer. Thank you very much. Yeah, she is on on path to get absolutely smoked here. I mean, this is a disaster. I heard a rumor she's not going to be doing any more of these debates because it went so absolutely terribly. Here's just one more moment. And these are there.

If she wasn't such a despicably terrible person, these might get tough to watch. They're actually quite, quite entertaining to watch. We did have a very close election, but we also had 50000 Republicans not show up to vote. I do not believe me being here is making this a vulnerable seat. This is a huge move for conservatives in Colorado. So just to be clear, Ms. Boebert, you blame Republican voters for the fact that you nearly lost a safe seat and not your own conduct. When 50,000 Republican voters do not show up and think that their vote does not matter, that does make an impact on elections.

It's the voters fault. It's the voters fault that Adam Frisch almost defeated her. So a disastrous debate for Lauren Boebert switching districts, maybe also part of the disastrous mistakes that she's made. It is a wild, wild situation there in that Colorado District 4 debate. Rumor is she's bailing on future debates because this went so disastrously wrong. Let's get her out. That's the goal. Colorado voters, let's get her out. I have received copious emails from viewers saying, David, is there any scenario in which

the judge may just have to imprison Donald Trump when he imposes a sentence on July 11th? The answer is sure. There is a scenario in which it may be obvious that the judge's right action would be to impose Donald Trump, impose a prison sentence on Donald Trump. But the judge doesn't have to do anything. But using the terms of sentencing guidelines and historical tradition, it's conceivable that there is a situation where it is what the judge should do. So let's discuss this. What would be the points against Trump

getting prison as part of these 34 guilty felony counts, bearing in mind that the range here could go anywhere from probation, meaning no prison time whatsoever, all the way up to four years. Well, the points against giving Trump any prison time would be he's a first time offender. I know it's crazy. He's been doing a lot of these things, overvaluing, undervaluing fraud. But as far as a criminal conviction, he is a first time offender. That's what it is. He may soon be a second time offender and maybe third, depending on what happens in the next trials. But he is a first time offender, at least for the time being.

He's in his 70s. And sometimes, I mean, listen, age can be used as a consideration when it comes to sentencing commonly for a single instance of FBR, meaning falsifying business records, that's what Trump's been convicted of in 34 counts, sometimes for a single count of FBR, probation is the punishment, the sentence that is imposed. So there are certainly some points there which would say no prison time for the convicted felon, failed former president Donald Trump. Now, what about the other side of the argument?

What about the side of the argument that would say, hey, you know what? It would make sense that this guy get prison if later the sentence is suspended or it's held in some kind of secure facility or whatever. OK, we look at that later. But there is a case to be made. Number one, we're not talking about one count. We're talking about 34. Now, the counter counter to that is these all stack. So it would be time served concurrently. It wouldn't be sequential. So, yes, convicted on 34. But because of the law, they stack and whatever penalty there is would be served concurrently. But needless to say, these are thirty four counts,

not a single count. Number two, zero remorse, zero remorseful and whether they are owning up to their misdeeds in considering what the sentencing should be and Trump's disrespect to the court through falling asleep and lashing out at members of the jury during the jury selection process and all of it. And then every single day on his way into court and on his way out of court and online on social media, attacking the judge and attacking the process and saying the judge is essentially a puppet of the political system. Zero remorse. And in fact, quite the opposite. That would be an aggravating factor for potentially a prison sentence. Number three, Trump convicted crimes related to our democracy. And I saw a really good interview that Norm

Eisen did with our friend Brian Tyler Cohen. And what Norm Eisen said, which I think is quite interesting, is that the. I don't know if I would call it impetus or desire or duty to hold Trump's autocracy in check may lead a judge to say, you know what, I have to impose prison here. It's the only way to support democracy and to keep autocracy in check. Now, some might say, oh, that's not for the judge to decide when it comes to sentencing. No, judges have significant leeway in what they use to evaluate what an appropriate sentence will be. So this truly will be up to the judge.

I think the judge overall has been quite fair, but has also given Donald Trump significant leniency and leeway so far, particularly as we've seen with regard to the gag orders. Many other people, if they weren't elite elites and former presidents after violating gag orders multiple times, it wouldn't be just a thousand dollar fine each time. At a certain point, it would be I'm holding you for the violation of the gag order. You're going to spend a weekend. You're going to spend a night in jail. And the judge didn't do that.

So at least we have some evidence that instead of being this Trump hating, go get him at every opportunity judge, which is what Trump claims he has been, Judge Merchan has actually given quite a bit of leeway and leniency here. So could we have a situation where the judge feels I have no choice? I have to give this guy prison. Yes, we could have a situation. Do I think that such a situation is particularly likely? I really don't. I really don't. Donald Trump, after being convicted, gave what I believe is his worst interview in history. I have never seen an interview this disastrous.

The guy whose show I was recently on, Will Kane, he was one of the people interviewing Trump. It's pathetic. It is a pathetic, brown nosing interview. Trump denied ever saying lock up Hillary. What? What? Trump was constantly talking. He said to her on the debate stage, you'll be in jail if I'm president. But he denies ever having said, lock her up. The audacity, the gall. Listen to this. I want to follow up on what Rachel asked you, though, because I hear you struggling with it.

I hear you say it's a tough question, a bit unsure. You famously said regarding Hillary Clinton, lock her up. You declined to do that as president. I beat her. It's easier when you win. And they all said lock her up. And I felt, and I could have done it, but I felt it would have been a terrible thing. And then this happened to me. And so I may feel differently about it. I can't tell you, I can, I'm not sure I can answer the question. Hillary Clinton, I didn't say lock her up, but the people don't say lock her up, lock her up. OK, then we won. And I say and I said pretty openly, I say, all right, come on, just relax. Let's go. We got to make our country great. Yeah. And it would have been think of it. You lock up

the wife of a president of the United States. Lock you up over one hundred and thirty thousand dollars of an accounting thing. And she perfectly and a perfectly stated accounting. Now before we get to Trump's denials of ever having said lock her up, Fox News has all the money in the world. They what is wrong with the audio? I don't know if you guys can tell. There is background noise. There's some kind of hum.

And the interviewer seemed to be off mic like you. How how does Fox News with the amount of money they have? They can't get an interview, probably an interview with a former president properly mic'd up. Now, of course, of course, as I'm sure you know, Trump numerous times has talked about locking up Hillary. Lock her up is right. All this sort of different stuff. I do want to remind you during the 2016 debates that we're going to watch about a minute here. Remember this famous exchange where Trump trade up straight up told her if I were president, you'd be in jail. You delete thirty three thousand emails and then you acid wash them or bleach them, as

you would say, very expensive process. So we're going to get a special prosecutor and we're going to look into it because you know what? People have been, their lives have been destroyed for doing one-fifth of what you've done. And it's a disgrace. And honestly, you ought to be ashamed of yourself. Secretary Clinton, I want to follow up on that. I'm going to let you talk about it now. Because everything he just said is absolutely false, but I'm not surprised.

In the first debate, I told people that it would be impossible to be fact-checking Donald all the time. I'd never get to talk about anything I want to do and how we're going to really make lives better for people. So once again, go to HillaryClinton.com. We have literally Trump. You can fact-check him in real time. Last time at the first debate, we had millions of people fact checking. So I expect we'll have millions more fact checking because, you know, it is it's just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law

in our country because you'd be in jail. Secretary Clinton. Harder to see that as anything other than lock up Hillary. And of course, if you want that exact language, Donald Trump said it repeatedly. Here is just one example. Remember this? I'll tell you something, though, and it's very lock them up. You should lock them up. Lock up the buttons. Lock up Hillary, lock up Hillary. I mean, listen, we all know he said it time and time again, and it is yet another instance of extreme tendencies of these dictatorial authoritarian types. They will just lie.

They will just it's one of the defining characteristics of fascism. They tell you you can't believe what you think you saw. You can't believe what you think you heard. I will tell you how to really believe what you think you saw. You can't believe what you think you heard. I will tell you how to really interpret what you think you heard. And Trump just saying, no, I never said lock her up. Trump on the possibility of arrests or house arrest or jail time. He suggests the public would hit a breaking point and wouldn't stand for it. Of course, of course, alluding to violence. If he were to get prison time. But so that could happen. I don't know that the public would stand

it. You know, I don't I'm not sure the public would stand for it with a house arrest or I think I think it would be tough for the public to take. You know, at a certain point, there's a breaking point. So alluding to the public would break. It would be a breaking point if they tried to imprison me. And then later, when the same topic came up, if you're not watching this, you'll you'll you'll not see a critical part. They asked Trump again about the possibility of prison time. There's the strangest, such obvious edit where and by the way, the audio for Pete Hegseth is terrible. It's just it's so poorly produced.

But there's a very obvious edit where Trump says, I'm OK with it. Like if he has to go to prison and there's an insanely abrupt cut, which we're left to speculate about, which I can only assume is Trump saying something so inflammatory that they were like, we're going to cut that out. Take a look at this when it comes to the legal maze that you're still facing. And if they could, the judge could decide to say house arrest or even jail. It couldn't face what that could. I'm OK with it. I saw one of my lawyers the other day. And there's the cut. I'm OK with it. And then it cuts. The room tone sounds different. It's very obvious some amount of time has gone by.

What was in those seconds that were cut? I don't know. Trump then says that more dangerous than Putin are Americans who don't support him. Think about that. Think about what it means for the guy who wants to be president to say an adversarial foreign leader, not the enemy. Americans who don't support me are the enemy. Your fellow Americans are the enemy, not Putin. They're deranged. You know, I talk about the enemy on the outside and the enemy from within. See of Russia, you have China. But if you have a smart president, you always handle it quite easily.

Actually, we have a lot of advantages, but the enemy from within, they are doing damage to this country. The enemy from within the people who just won't lay down and support Trump. They are really the people you have to watch out for. And Trump even doubling down on this, telling the poorly miked Fox and Friends crew, China and Russia aren't the problem. The problem is inside the country. People don't want to be impeached. They don't want to be indicted by these scoundrels who are much more evil than people. I'm telling you, China and Russia, they're not the problem.

We have a problem from within. That's really bad. So he let us down. The key to really good government where we had like Lighthizer and so your neighbors could be your family. They might be your friends, your coworkers. They're voting Biden. They are the real enemy spoken like a true authoritarian dictator wannabe. Now the topic of deportation came up during this sort of worst interview in history. And it's a completely unintelligible thing from Trump where he says, I'm going to do the big deportation. And listen, even though I can't understand everything Trump's saying here,

it's sounding really scary time. Now I'm going to do the big deportation. Yeah. Biggest ever. Eisenhower did the biggest. Huge. This will be bigger. But it's a it's a very tough thing. What they've done to our country is unthinkable that they could do this and so many other things. I mean, going to New York, the kids can't have Little League games anymore. It sounds so trivial, right? Why? Because the migrants are living in the fields. I like the host is like they can't have Little League games. Why? I haven't heard of that.

Play around the tent. How can you how can you implement deportations? And do you think the public will have the appetite, the stomach for watching deportations on their television screen? Well, that question is so, so great and so tough because, you know, the radical left is going to start saying, oh, look, so you'll get rid of 10 really bad ones. And one, you know, beautiful mother who they think is guilty of something, and maybe she is maybe and it'll become a story. I love that. You know, 10 percent of the people we get rid of will be absolutely innocent or we don't certainly we don't know whether they did anything wrong.

Maybe she did something. Maybe she didn't. And the liberals are going to get all worked up about 10 percent of the people we deport just being absolutely not not a problem whatsoever. Wow. Wow. And then finally, Trump bringing out the greatest hits. If Biden wins, we're going to have a 1929 style depression.

Will any of the Fox and Friends hosts have the testicular or ovarian fortitude to say, but Mr. President, sir, you predicted that in 2020 and it didn't happen? Or will they shut their mouths and nod along? And if I didn't throw money at COVID, we would have had a depression like in 1929. And if I don't win, you're going to have a depression like in 1929. You know, one of the I'll just say, Scott, one of the greatest analysts on Wall Street considered me anyway. So that didn't happen.

Predicted it in 2020. All time high after all time high. I believe the most ridiculous interview I've seen Trump give. Let me know what you think. Let's hear from a sponsor or two. Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube at YouTube dot com slash the David Pakman show. It's the same dilemma every year for Father's Day. What do you get the man who already has everything and says, I don't need any gift, put down the slippers, step away from the necktie and get dad something that he will actually love an aura digital photo frame. Our sponsor aura makes stunning Wi-Fi connected digital frames

that allow you to share and display unlimited photos. It's easy to upload and share photos via the aura app. If you're giving aura as a gift, you can even personalize it with preloaded photos and memories. I gave one of these to my dad for last Father's Day, mentioned it on the show. I recently gave my mom one of these for Mother's Day and I put pictures of the baby up from wherever I am. They pop up on the digital picture frame. It's great. And my favorite part is that you can put pictures on without even unpacking the frame. So it's still ready to be opened up, but with pictures already on it. Now both I and my dad can add and remove pictures remotely using the app.

You also get unlimited storage on the cloud. And right now, Aura has an amazing deal for Father's Day. Go to Aura frames dot com slash Pacman and use the code Pacman for thirty dollars off plus free shipping on their best selling frame. The link is in the description. That's a URA frames dot com slash Pacman. Then use the code Pacman at checkout for thirty dollars off and free shipping. The info is in the podcast notes. Terms and conditions apply. As I've told you before, anybody claiming that it's obvious that either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will clearly easily

win the presidential election in November. They're not telling you a story based in fact, online echo chambers are everywhere and we're susceptible to them. And over the next couple of days, I will first make the strongest possible case that Donald Trump is obviously going to win tomorrow, that Joe Biden is obviously going to win. And the point here is to understand that depending on which echo chamber you're a part of or what you want to believe, you can make a seemingly ironclad case that November's outcome is obvious when in reality this election is going to be close. So this is a thought experiment. It will almost certainly come down to about two hundred and fifty thousand or so votes

in three to five states. It truly could go either way. What is true is that the 2024 election is unprecedented. The presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is a former president, lost reelection once already, was indicted four times since leaving office, has been found guilty of 34 felonies where he is pending sentencing while heading towards a rematch against the man who defeated him almost four years ago, the current President Joe Biden. But it would be a mistake to assume that the outcome of the 2024 race will be decided by

Trump's criminal trials. The trials will be a factor. The post-conviction polling doesn't look great for Trump, but most people are not following the nitty gritty as closely as we are. Some people don't care that Trump is on trial. Others could be pushed more strongly towards Trump. So today I'm going to make the strongest possible case for Donald Trump. And tomorrow I will do so for Joe Biden. So let's start with the polling.

According to both 538 and Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump is leading. According to The New York Times, Trump is leading in five critical swing states, Pennsylvania by three, Arizona by seven, Michigan by seven, Georgia by 10, Nevada by 12. Joe Biden won all five of those states in the 2020 election. Don't forget the Electoral College in 2020. Joe Biden won the popular vote by four percent, but he nearly lost the election electorally anyway. Biden's most recent State of the Union address was strong, but his approval rating has actually declined since then by a point. And despite nonstop legal turmoil, Trump still has a higher approval rating than Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton, one of the weakest and most disliked candidates in modern American

political history, had a higher approval rating in May of 2016 than Biden currently has the number from the end of May 2024. These are not numbers that look good for Joe Biden on polling. Then we go to the economy. What about the economy? It's pretty good. It is true that presidents tend to get reelected when the economy is good. But the problem is that half of the country currently believes we are in a recession. It's not true by any metrics, but that is a disaster for President Joe Biden if it is what half the country believes to be true. Most Americans say the economy and inflation are the most important issues determining who they will support for president in November. And according to an Ipsos poll,

the average American voter prefers Trump over Biden on the economy by a 14 point margin. Now, it's also true that while we aren't in a recession, the economy is not perfect by any means. Much of the country is right to be dissatisfied with Bidenomics per USA Today. Nearly 70 percent of Americans said the economy is getting worse, according to the poll, while only 22 percent said the economy is improving. Eighty four percent of Americans said their cost of living is rising and nearly half of Americans, 49 percent, blamed food and grocery prices as the main driver. Top line macroeconomic indicators just don't tell the full story of what

Americans experience daily. And we've talked about this before. There's a real there's a legitimacy to just what do eggs cost in my local community? Housing costs are up. Almost half of all renters spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent. Now, Joe Biden isn't personally responsible for every economic woe that Americans face. Many of these are systemic problems that go back decades. But Biden is the president and elections, to a degree at least, are referenda on the national economy. Biden insisting that the economy is great, while statistically accurate, could be perceived by many Americans as being told you're too dumb to understand your own dire economic situation. And this could make the MAGA message more

appealing. What about foreign policy? Although Trump's militarism is worse than Biden's, Trump has remained relatively quiet on Israel. Gaza save some outrageous comment here or there because he notices it's very damaging to Biden. What's going on? This may prove smart for Trump, despite supporting human rights abusers around the world and being enamored with dictators, expanding the military budget, sabotaging the Iran deal. Trump is nonetheless perceived as, quote, anti-war compared to Biden by some people, even though he has said, oh, Israel, you've got to finish your war, finish it, seemingly saying he doesn't care what Israel does to the Palestinians. The point here is

Trump seems to get that most Americans are sick of expensive wars, especially ones that they don't understand or perceive to be unjust. And he will probably attack Biden for this the same way he attacked Hillary, because running against an unpopular war or military engagement is an effective thing to do politically. Now, there are pundits who minimize the significance of the recent protesters, for example, by suggesting that Biden's foreign policy ranks quite low among voter concerns. And that's true to a great degree. A frequently cited poll, the Harvard Youth Poll, shows Israel-Palestine is 15th out of 16 issues. Inflation, health care and housing are the top three. However, the same poll

also does show that Israel-Palestine is, quote, a priority for 37 percent of likely Democratic voters. So when you put it that way, it is more significant than simply it ranks at the bottom. There are people who care about it. This is, of course, just one poll. We do have other metrics that we can look at. According to The New York Times, 13 percent of voters in swing states who voted Biden in 2020 say they will not vote for Biden this time specifically because of Gaza. So the question is, even if it is not a high priority

for a significant number of voters when it's expected to be this close, how many votes can Joe Biden afford to lose over this issue when we expect this electoral race to come down to, you know, 250,000, maybe 500000 votes in three to five states? So let's not underestimate the political instincts of Donald Trump. Does Trump care about Gaza? No. Is he actually antiwar? No.

Trump is a sociopath who will say anything to gain power, but he sees how to cynically try to take advantage of the discontent that exists with Joe Biden. So what about Biden as a candidate? Donald Trump has a clear message that inspires voters. MAGA, Agenda 47, Project 2025. It's all horrible, dangerous, authoritarian stuff. But to his base, it's persuasive and they think of it as a policy agenda. According to a Pew Research poll from 2020, 56 percent of Americans who voted for Joe Biden voted for him because he is not Trump.

That worked in 2020. But are we confident that not Trump will work again? According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 40 percent of registered voters say Biden has a, quote, strong record of policy achievements, while 51 percent believe Trump has a strong record of policy achievements. Insane. But if they believe it, that's what matters. Hilariously, despite shuttling between criminal trials and bizarre fundraisers at Mar-a-Lago, Trump is more active on the campaign trail, doing more interviews and rallies than Joe Biden over recent months. So here's the bottom line. Trump could win. And I've laid out a case for how one could argue Trump has the advantage here. 2024 could look a lot more like 2016 than 2020 in 2008 and to a lesser degree in 2012.

Barack Obama won because he excited people in 2016. Trump won because he used pseudo populist rhetoric that excited enough blue collar workers in swing states that Hillary Clinton didn't pay enough attention to in those final months before the election. In 2020, people hated Trump due to his mismanagement of covid and the global shame that he brought upon the United States. And they were excited to vote him out. But now Joe Biden is the incumbent. He faces some of the lowest approval ratings of his presidential tenure. He's currently losing five swing states. He's angered a slice of the left

over his handling of the Israeli Gaza conflict. So Trump can absolutely win this thing. And this is the strongest case possible to make for Trump's inevitability in November. There is another case to be made. That's the case for President Joe Biden's reelection. Remember, what we're doing is these are theoretical cases. I am steel manning Trump and then Biden's paths to the White House. Tomorrow, we are going to make just as strong a case that it is Joe Biden who has the clear and most direct, unobstructed path to victory. We will then evaluate which one rings the truest. And the whole point here is anyone who thinks either candidate has this in the bag is making a very risky conclusion because it will almost certainly be unpredictably close.

Two hundred and fifty thousand to five hundred thousand votes in three to five states. So we've made the case for Trump. We'll take a quick break tomorrow. I will make the case for Biden's path to victory. It's important to me that any supplement I take is of the highest quality and freshness, and that's why I've been turning to AG1 for years. Unlike other vitamin brands, AG1 conducts relentless testing for purity and potency. It's tested for nine hundred and fifty contaminants and banned substances,

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The link is in the podcast notes. Failed former president and now convicted felon Donald Trump's speech after being convicted was an absolute sweaty and disheveled mess. Trump completely incoherent hair doing something very strange, looking haggard and disheveled, soaking wet by the end of the speech. And without that teleprompter, this guy really, really struggles. Trump completely incoherent. And I dare you to make sense of what he's saying here. Bragg's people protested. And the judge knocked him out, said you can't testify. He actually said you can't testify for anything having to do with the trial. You can say what the federal elections is. Well, that doesn't help. Everybody knows that. But you can't. Guys, you can say what the federal's elections is. Don't you get it? Testify. So essentially, he wasn't able to testify. Other people weren't able to testify.

But with these people, they were able to use people sal, by the way, and nothing ever. They were able to use people salacious. Don't you know what federal elections is? Happened. There was no anything. Nothing ever happened that they know it. But they were salacious, salacious as they could be. Yep.

I don't know what the hell he's talking about. I genuinely don't know. Now he did address to some degree why he didn't testify. Why didn't he testify? We know the real reason. The real reason is he would immediately perjure himself. There is no story that is an alternative explanation of the facts that would not be a lie that Trump could have told.

Here is Trump, I guess, trying to explain why he didn't testify. So you're going to call it now. I would have testified. I wanted to testify. The theory is you never testify because as soon as you testify, anybody, if it were George Washington, don't testify because they'll get you on something that you said slightly wrong. And then they sue you for perjury. But I didn't care about that. I wanted to. But the judge allowed them to go into everything that I was ever involved in. Not this case, everything that I was ever involved in, which is a first. In other words, you know, we don't even know what he's saying, but it's not true. He could have testified. He would have been able to explain his version of events. And if it would have been

true and maybe useful in some way, it would have been advisable for him to do it. Of course, every one of his lawyers knew it would be a complete and total disaster. Trump then talking about whether he was a bad boy. This speech getting so strange and everybody cuts away from it. Eventually, you'll see in a moment. It's why a judge allowed them to go into everything that I was ever involved in. Not this case. Everything that I was ever involved in, which is a first. In other words, you could go into every single thing that I ever did.

Was he a bad boy here? Was he a bad boy there? And my lawyer said, what do you need to go through it? All you wanted to do is testify simply on this case. My client has been a very good boy, your honor. Please. Trump says that his witnesses were literally crucified, by which I assume he means figuratively crucified.

Although I don't know what Trump is claiming here. As far as the trial itself, it was very unfair. We weren't allowed to allowed to use our election expert right under any circumstances, you saw what happened to some of the witnesses that were on our side. They were literally crucified by this man who looks like an angel, but he's really a devil. There you go. That he looks like an angel, but he's really a devil. Sounds like the good first verse for some kind of heavy metal song. And then a confused Trump repeats the same thing 15 minutes apart about a Daily Mail poll. You'll see if you're watching, you'll see the clock in the upper left go from about quarter past 11 a.m. to half past 11 a.m. Trump just

tells the same story again, has no idea what he's talked about, rambling aimlessly, no memory of what he said 15 minutes earlier. Because I just see a poll just came out, the Daily Mail. That was the first one came out. It was done last night right after the verdict where I'm up six points. Six points from what we already were. We were leading fairly substantially. Right. We're up six points in the Daily Mail poll. Now, maybe other polls come out and say something differently. OK, so now it's 13 minutes later. Just came out the first poll. I don't know. Maybe others will be bad. But a poll just came out a little while ago. The Daily Mail. Does anybody read the Daily Mail? It's very good to have a good poll. Yeah. At least I like it today. And the Daily Mail just came out with a poll and it has Trump up six points.

And OK, so 13 minutes earlier, he had already talked about that. This is getting really bad. And so the networks start dumping. CNBC is the first network to dump out of this fiasco. Hush money, hush money, it's not hush money. It's called the n-disclosure agreement. And most of the people in this room have a non-disclosure agreement with their company. It's a disgrace. So it's not hush money. It's a non-disclosure agreement. Totally legal.

By the way, why why he says disclosure, disclosure. Totally common. Everyone has it. And what happened is you've been listening to former President Donald Trump speaking at Trump Tower reacting in a broader way to be. I love the characterization. They don't know how to say it's a completely aimless rant. So she says he's reacting in a broader way. Yes. By talking about polls and who knows what else.

CNN then cuts it and refers to the entire thing as a as a rant and also says that without his prompter, Trump sounds disjointed, which is certainly charitable. It's very bad for friends and businesses, But I'm honored to be involved in it because somebody has to do it. And I might as well keep going and be the one. Right. But I'm very honored to be involved because we're fighting for our country. We're going to continue to monitor Donald Trump and his remarks. He's making very, very strong statements.

And we're going to have a fact check on those statements coming up shortly. Daniel Dale is standing by. Aaron, we're listening to the former president of the United States say, and I'm quoting him now, we are living in a fascist state. He refers to the trial as a scam, a rigged trial. He says he would have loved to have testified. He could have testified. It was his decision not to testify.

He said, quote, I would have loved to have testified. And then he went over, he went after some of the witnesses, including Michael Cohen, for example, potentially a violation of the gag order that has been imposed by the judge against him. Aaron, we're going to continue to listen to what the former president has to say. But clearly, without a teleprompter, he's going off the cuff. He's railing against almost everything. Yeah. And Wolf, you know, the fascist state, of course, the line that stands out. But as you point out, I love that he's he's against everything. I love that he's almost everything.

It's genius. Oh, man. Wolf Blitzer with it. Like the fact that he's so serious makes it so good. And then eventually, eventually MSNBC relents as well. And it's like the fact that he's so serious makes it so good. And then eventually, eventually MSNBC relents as well. And it's like we got to fact check some of this stuff. This is a case that should not have been brought. I watched Andy McCarthy say this is a case that should not have been brought. And that was this morning. We'll keep an eye on this press conference. Donald Trump in his first real news conference, you could call it, following his guilty verdict. Thirty four counts all guilty.

And so now he is railing on the justice system, railing on the judge and continuing to say many of the similar things we heard throughout the trial. It's important for us to at least fact similar things we heard throughout the trial. It's important for us to at least fact check some of them at the moment when we couldn't possibly we couldn't possibly fact check all of it. But we're going to try to at least fact check some of it. And then here's like the sort of cherry on top. Even on Fox News, their anchor is like they you know, they said it would be a press conference, but he's like not really taking questions. November 5th is the most important day in the history of our country. Thank you very much, everybody.

So the president talked for about 40 minutes. We were expecting the former commander in chief, Donald Trump, to take questions. This had been billed as a news conference and that reporters would be at least available. There would be the former president for their questions. It didn't happen. It didn't happen. Harris, unfortunately for you and for everybody else, I guess, because I was hoping to see some questions. So what a wild event and every network struggling to understand what that was not a stable genius at this point in time. That's for sure. We have a voicemail number. That number is two one nine two. David P.

Here is a caller who really got me with this one. Listen to this. Hey, David, why are your eyes so close together? Like you, you're asymmetrical dimensions on your face. You look stupid. Well you know I think the only serious answer I can give to why my eyes are where they are on my head is genetics and heredity. I mean I don't know I don't know how else to explain such a thing but I think the final message which is I the guy just thinks I'm stupid. That's really the key here. So really got me with that one. I don't know how we will continue.

OK, we have a great bonus show for you today. We will talk about the Mexican presidential election in which the first woman Jewish socialist will become president of Mexico. We will talk about the reversal of Trump's position on Tick Tock as he now is on Tick Tock and is trying to get attention on Tick Tock. And we will also talk about the apology that has come forward from the publisher of the 2000 Mules election conspiracy movie. It is something else, something else. All of those stories and more on today's bonus show. The bonus show where you want to make money. Everybody else that makes money to fund themselves

is bad. Sign up at join Pacman dot com. I will see you then. And I'll be back tomorrow with a new show as well.