The David Pakman Show - 7/31/24: Kamala rally explodes, Trump's lead gone in 7 states

Episode Date: July 31, 2024

-- On the Show: -- Tim Miller, Host of the Bulwark Podcast, Never Trump Republican, and former RNC spokesperson, joins David to discuss the latest strategies being employed by the Trump and Harris campaigns, respectively, and much more -- Election offices nationwide are filled with Trump-supporting election deniers, raising concerns for the upcoming presidential election -- Donald Trump's lead appears to have completely evaporated in seven critical states -- Kamala Harris holds a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, in which she challenges Donald Trump to a debate -- JD Vance holds a rally in Reno, Nevada, glitching badly and delivering a generally incoherent performance -- Donald Trump reacts very strangely when asked by Fox News' Laura Ingraham what Melania Trump thinks about his survived assassination attempt -- FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate testifies that the Trump shooter have antisemitic and anti-immigration views, and espoused political violence on social media -- On the Bonus Show: Republicans call Kamala Harris a "failed border czar," Project 2025 director steps down, NYC Mayor Eric Adams overrules law limiting solitary confinement in NYC jails, much more... 💪 Athletic Greens is offering FREE year-supply of Vitamin D at https://athleticgreens.com/pakman ⚠️ Try Ground News and get 40% OFF the Vantage plan at https://ground.news/pakman 🍷 Naked Wines: Use code PAKMAN to get 6 bottles for $29.99 at https://nakedwines.com/pakman 🌳 MyHeritage: Discover your family roots for FREE for 14 days at https://davidpakman.com/myheritage 😁 Zippix Toothpicks: Code PAKMAN10 saves you 10% at https://zippixtoothpicks.com 👩‍❤️‍👨 Try the Paired App FREE for 7 days and get 25% OFF at https://paired.com/pakman -- Become a Member: https://www.davidpakman.com/membership -- Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/davidpakmanshow -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow -- Pakman Discord: https://www.davidpakman.com/discord -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow -- Leave a Voicemail: (219)-2DAVIDP

. Welcome to the show, everybody. A sort of red alert moment. Dozens and dozens of you emailing me over the last twenty four, forty eight hours saying, David, you have to talk about the election offices around the country that are increasingly filled with proump election deniers who, if given the opportunity to mess with the election in November, will do so. And could this explain Trump's confidence despite cratering polls, as well as his recent comment that you're not going to need to vote again as long as you vote for me this time. Rachel Maddow on MSNBC covering this exclusive reporting from Rolling Stone finds that there are dozens of swing state election officials who are pro Trump election deniers. Now, understand that we are talking not like the

secretary of state of Georgia, necessarily. We're talking about when you look at the thousands of local election officials at the county precinct, et cetera, level municipality in some cases. These are the individuals who will be tasked with certifying election results in their respective jurisdictions. Typically, these are counties. And if you look as the Rolling Stone report explains in great detail and we'll link to the story. If you look at swing states, critical battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina. Yes. Although less likely to be a battleground state, although maybe not. We'll look at new polling.

Pennsylvania. Rolling Stone has identified working with its partners, at least 70 pro Trump election conspiracists who believe that Trump really won 2020 or who believe that it should have been sent back or rejected or whatever. They are currently working as county election officials. They've questioned the validity of elections. They've delayed or refused to certify results at some point in the last nearly four years. At least 22 of the 70 straight up refused certifications of elections in recent years. There's a quote from Democratic election lawyer Mark Elias, who we're going to try to get on the

program to talk about this and discuss exactly what's going on and what can be done. He says, quote, I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election. Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless and more prepared. So the immediate and obvious question to those who call it quaint called me old fashioned, my friends. I think the candidate that wins the election should get to be the president of the United States. I know it's a crazy notion, apparently in 2024. So there are two ways to answer the question. What can we do? On the one hand, we will and we should do everything possible to prevent these people from pulling it off. It also is the case.

It might be that the only way to stop these people is to vote in numbers so massive that any attempt to overturn these results will be meaningless. And what I mean by that is that sometimes the only way to ensure that this doesn't become an election denying conspiratorial mess. And I don't mean conspiratorial in fake conspiracy theories. I mean that they are able to conspire to steal the election the way they tried to do in 2020. The only way we might be able to do it is by showing up with everyone voting in numbers so overwhelming that messing around at the margins with some counties is simply not going to be enough. Now, that's not super auspicious as an explanation of what to do. We would be far better served if we had an absence of these hardcore pro-Trump MAGA election denying lunatics in

positions of power in counties. But on the other hand, I don't want to dismiss the importance of 70 counties that we know of. There may be more. Right. Some of these individuals may be quieter and we just don't know their views and their impositions of power in certain counties. But at the end of the day, 70 counties, if they were exactly the right counties, could they flip a state? Yes, it's possible. It's possible. We have to hope that concurrent with doing everything that can be done legally to restrict the ability of these individuals to flip results unfairly, if we just overwhelm the vote in record numbers, it probably won't even be able to make a difference because those counties

won't be enough to flip the results. Now, neither of these is very satisfying, right? Because as I say, on the one hand, we need to try to prevent these people from being in this position in the first place. How do we do it? I don't know. I don't know. And that's why hopefully we'll we'll speak to attorney Mark Elias and he will tell us, but it's not super satisfying for me to say, let's try to get them out of power. What? How? What do we do? I'm not sure. On the other hand, it's also not super satisfying or optimistic to say, well, they'll probably be able to end up in a position to try to get away with it. But what we could do

is just like vote in huge numbers, because every time we say every single election, we say if we only had record turnout, none of this stuff would matter. And we don't always have record turnout. So I understand that neither side of this is particularly optimistic. They are the options we have over overwhelmed the vote and also do everything we can legally to limit the power of these individuals to try to steal counties. But that's what's going on. Rolling Stone is reporting on it. Rachel Maddow is talking about it. We have to keep talking about it and we'll try to get Mark Elias on the show. Speaking of things going wrong for Trump, Donald Trump's lead is gone. It's just it's gone in seven key swing states, either losing to Kamala Harris or has lost a lead he had.

And we are now within the margin of error. Let's talk about it. The Hill reports Harris pulls even with Trump among swing state voters. My oh my, how quickly these elections can turn. Vice President Harris, this is per The Hill, has erased former President Trump's lead in seven key battleground states roughly a week after becoming the likely Democratic nominee. A Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll showed Harris and Trump in a tight race in all battleground states, with 48 percent backing Harris and 47 percent saying that they support Trump. Now, on average, on average, we are talking about that one point seven percentage point lead

for Trump. We spelled that number out yesterday and it remains that way. But the breakdown is very, very interesting. And this is where we have seen the shift. Tuesday's poll shows Harris opening an 11 point lead on Trump in Michigan. That's huge because that was like 20000 vote margin or something like that in 2020. A two point lead in Nevada, a two point lead in Arizona, a two point lead in Wisconsin. Now meanwhile, in these polls, Harris, Trump rather leads by four in Pennsylvania, two in North Carolina. We're not even counting on North Carolina. Pennsylvania would be nice, but it's not actually completely necessary.

And the candidates are tied in Georgia at forty seven percent. This is not a good sign for Donald Trump. And it is definitely a better feeling now compared to the start of July. I still think we need an additional full week to let all of the polling settle and get better and more representative data. But I also want to anecdotally show you some of the latest polls on Real Clear Politics just as snapshots in a general election poll that just came out this morning. It is Kamala Harris plus two over Trump. This includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. I am thrilled to see that Kennedy is down to just three. You may recall that

at one point in some polls, RFK Jr. was polling as high as 16 or even 18, which could be a total disaster for the Democratic nominee. At this point in time. Whoever it is that RFK takes from, it's increasingly irrelevant as his national polling is down to three. And I would bet in the states that will be close, it will be even lower than that. Jill Stein and Cornel West, fortunately polling zero. Now, why do I say fortunately? For two reasons. I don't think they're good candidates and any support that Stein and West have disproportionately would come from those otherwise likely to vote for Kamala Harris. They could ruin this entire thing and put Trump back in power. That's a great poll for Kamala. Couple other

anecdotes. New Hampshire, Kamala plus four and New Hampshire in a multiway race, Kamala plus seven. That's great to see. I mentioned already the Bloomberg poll in Arizona where it's Harris plus two tied in Georgia, Harris plus 11 in Michigan, Harris plus 11 in Nevada. Trump's still leading in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. We also have a whole bunch of other polling that is more of a mixed bag. But as we go back further and further, we do start to get to polling that does not fully account for this change in who is at the top of the Democratic ticket. And then finally, if you look at a different poll, The Hill reports Harris takes a four point lead in Pennsylvania.

This is just a reminder that just because Trump is leading Pennsylvania in the Bloomberg poll doesn't mean that he has the lead in every poll. So a couple different things I think are important to think about as we approach the 2024 election here in November. There are cracks in the Republican Party when they are all of a sudden not running against an incredibly weak and unpopular candidate in Joe Biden, immediately the numbers start to crater. J.D. Vance, when we'll talk about this with Tim Miller upcoming, J.D. Vance is making boneheaded comment after comment, alienating growing numbers of critical voter demographics. There are Reagan Republicans saying we're not going to support Trump.

This is just absolutely ridiculous. The populists and the authoritarians and the evangelicals, they are going to stick with Trump until the very last moment. But the infighting worst case scenario, it doesn't do anything. Best case, the infighting actually makes a bunch of them stay home, which I would completely welcome. And if Donald Trump does lose, it will then be a situation where the more standard swaths of the Republican Party, you know, the capitalists, the pro business libertarians, the military industrialists, they will likely, I believe, say it's over

with this MAGA stuff. That's it. And maybe this will be the inflection point that we've suspected that it might be. Now, if you look historically, there is this pendulum that swings in the United States between left and right phases. The difference or what we might be able to navigate here is some kind of guardrail that was totally overpassed in 2016 when Trump became president. And to some degree, even since he was no longer president, just by the rhetoric and what he's gotten away with, what we might be able to do by

defeating Trump in November, if we were able to do it, is not change that the pendulum does swing, but move the guardrails or the Overton window, we might call it so that that when the pendulum does swing back to the right, it's not lunatic MAGA Trump ism. It's something comparatively more benign, not something I would vote for, but still something more benign Romney type conservatism, the late John McCain type conservatism, not stuff that I go. I love it. But stuff that doesn't make me say is the next election at risk are the Democratic guardrails at risk. So this is early polling still.

It's going in the right direction. It depends on us voting. Maga World sees it. They are panicking. And we'll talk about that after the break. So many of us are busy. We may not always have time to nutritionally plan out every meal and make sure we're getting the exact amount of this mineral or that vitamin. And that's why I like

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member benefits. And if you'd like to request a free subscription, you can go to David Pakman dot com slash free membership. Do not email me about it. Just fill out the form at David Pakman dot com slash free membership. We know three of the four presidential and vice presidential candidates for November and all three were out publicly yesterday. And you are going to now look at all three of them. Kamala Harris, J.D. Vance and Donald Trump. We don't yet know who the fourth Kamala Harris's VP will be, but we will know by all reports by next Tuesday at the latest. They were all out.

And I have to tell you, the vibe and the atmosphere at the Kamala Harris rallies is such a welcome change from MAGA ism and Trump ism. Kamala Harris held a rally in Atlanta, Georgia yesterday, and it absolutely exploded an electric atmosphere. Kamala Harris spoke directly to Donald Trump after learning that Trump is chickening out of debating her in the most pathetic way you can imagine. And she says, say it to my face, pushing back not only against the attacks on her levied by Trump, but also pointing out Trump's unwillingness to actually get on a debate stage with her and win the battle of ideas. This is this is much better than the Kamala Harris we saw some years ago out doing rallies and speeches. You love to see this.

So the momentum in this race is shifting. And there are signs that Donald Trump is feeling it. You may have noticed. So last week, you may have seen, he pulled out of the debate in September he had previously agreed to. So here's the thing. Here's the funny thing about that. Here's the funny thing about that. Here's the funny thing about that. So he won't debate. But he and his running mate sure seem to have a lot to say about me.

And by the way, don't you find some of their stuff to just be plain weird? Well, Donald, I do hope you'll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage. Because as the saying goes, if you've got something to say. Oh, man, this is very different than what we have seen. I mean, listen, it's different than what we've seen from Biden by far the energy. And it's also very different than what we've seen from Trump. And I'm going to give you another example in a moment of a message that is just much more positive.

This is absolutely the right thing to go after Trump this way. She's doing it with a smile. She's not using insults. She's doing it with a smile. And it's sending Trump into a tizzy. Trump doesn she's not using insults. She's doing it with a smile. And it's sending Trump into a tizzy. Trump doesn't know what to do now. Trump is saying Kamala is old. He said that or implied it in an interview on Fox News last night, which we will look at one more clip from this event. Kamala Harris wrapping up her speech on a rousing note. And again, it's there's a lack of paranoia and fear here. She's not

motivating the audience with paranoia and fear. And that's very different than the dystopian conspiracy music at Trump rallies while he just talks about how terrible things are. So, Georgia, in the next 98 days, we have our work cut out for us. And this is not going to be easy. This is hard work, but we like hard work. Hard work is good work. So, Georgia, today I ask you, are you ready to get to work? Do we believe in freedom?

Do we believe in freedom? Do we believe in opportunity? Do we believe in the promise of America? And are we ready to fight for it? And when we fight, we win. God bless you. God bless the United States. So, listen, you don't have to like the policy. You don't have to like Kamala Harris, but she's not in the basement. She's not on the golf course. She's not using fear and paranoia to try to motivate voting. And this has totally upended what is happening in this campaign. Now,

I want to give you a story of contrasts. That's Kamala Harris in Atlanta speaking clearly and with gusto and with energy and such a welcome change from what was being seen from Biden late in his campaign. We now go to J.D. Vance, where it is very, very different. You know, as I was preparing for today's show and watching videos of Kamala Harris in Atlanta and videos of J.D. Vance in Reno, Nevada, and remembering that J.D. Vance was supposed to be the coherent guy on the Trump campaign. J.D. Vance was supposed to be the guy that would energize young people and all different sorts of voters. And then I saw glitchy,

totally uncharismatic J.D. Vance clapping for himself. At one point, you'll hear it sounds like a banana slapping against the desk, clapping for relegated to clapping for himself. At one point, you'll hear it sounds like a banana slapping against the desk, clapping for relegated to clapping for himself. It became abundantly clear that this was a disastrous choice, a disastrous choice for Donald Trump. Here's J.D. Vance glitching. And we're supposed to be saying, hey, he he is a breath of coherent fresh air from Trump.

Do we want to defund the police? Do you want to do you want to ban fracking? So do we want a dangerous liberal liberal like a dangerous liberal? Do you want it? The entire speech was like this. He's terrible at this. He's absolutely terrible at it. He tried to use this. He's absolutely terrible at it. He tried to use this. He you know how in general elected

officials and politicians, they have a generic stump speech where they repeat a lot of the same lines. And one of the reasons is you get really comfortable with those same lines and you deliver them perfectly every time with predictable results. He's been doing this when you fill up your tank at a gas station line, except he gets it wrong almost every single time, saying instead, when you fill up your pump. So when you fill up your pump, when you fill up your tank at the gas station, maybe you should send a bill to Kamala Harris. Wow. Just such a great line, such a great line and delivered so poignantly every single one of these planned stump speech lines going wrong.

And we were told he would be really crystal clear in how he speaks. The continued. This is just so funny. Usha Vance, J.D. Vance, his wife seems to want nothing to do with this campaign. She looked like she was there under protest when they did a recent diner stop to get chocolate milk for their kids. J.D. Vance references he'll have to sleep on the couch if he tries to bring her up on the stage. He's the last guy who should be talking about couches right now. Now I would call her up here to come and speak that then I think I'd have to sleep on the

couch tonight. So I'll leave her alone. There you go. And then at another point, the microphone just rebelling against J.D. Vance. Maybe the sound engineering was being run by Antifa, but J.D. Vance completely inaudible during parts of the speech. Well, which I'll be honest, the most coherent moments he had were when his microphone wasn't working. Listen to this.

Now, I have seen the consequences. Oh, boy. He's still speaking now, tapping the mic. This is the best tapping, tapping, tapping. Blowing into the mic, tapping. Laughing. Talking, waving the mic in the air. And then suddenly the mic is back. And then finally, in a Jeb Bush like moment amidst a not super enthusiastic crowd, someone had to clap and it was J.D. Vance clapping for himself. Oh, man, this guy is completely pathetic. So things going swimmingly for J.D. Vance. We heard from Kamala Harris. And finally, let's go to the man himself, the man of the hour or maybe the man of the minute, Donald Trump. Last night, part two of Donald Trump's gong show

interview with Fox News propagandist Laura Ingram aired. And when he was asked about Melania Trump's feelings about the assassination attempt that Trump survived. The answer tells us so much. You almost start to feel bad for the guy. You almost do. Listen to this. What was Melania's reaction? If you don't mind my asking, this is very personal. When she learned about what happened on that field in Butler, she was watching. Oh, she was watching in real time. She was watching live. It was all over the place. First of all, does anyone believe that Melania Trump watches Trump's rallies? Does anyone seriously believe that they just renegotiated their relationship, the financial elements of their relationship? And she's nowhere on the campaign

trail seem to be under protest at the RNC. And we're supposed to believe she just sits at home watching these Castro like multi hour rallies. So it's already a lie. But now we get to the critical part on television. So on your network, but it was all over the place and she was watching. I asked her that. I mean, I wasn't there. I was on the ground. And when the world started to like you could talk to people, I said, so what was your feeling? And she was she can't really even talk about it, which is OK, because that means she likes me. She loves me. That's good. I mean, let's say she could talk about it freely. That wouldn't be I'm not so sure which is better. But she either likes or loves me. That's good. I mean, let's say she could talk about it freely. That wouldn't be. I'm not so sure which is better, but she either likes or loves me. And that's nice. But yeah, she we it's breaking news. Melania Trump may like Trump. She really likes me or she might love him. But the

real reason that Melania Trump doesn't talk to Trump about the assassination attempt is they don't talk. They don't talk to each other by all reports, leaving leading completely separate lives that you would think evangelical Christians would say, that's not the way you're supposed to live. We're not voting for the guy. Of course, that's a principle that they only care about sometime. And when it's inconvenient, they no longer care about that. We then get to Donald Trump talking about Kamala Harris and Trump is 20 years older than Kamala Harris. And he starts alluding to she's kind of old, like she's not really that young. She's older than I thought she was. If you're almost 80 and have a fraction of the energy as the woman you're running against, who's more than who's

roughly 20 years your junior. I don't know that you want to call attention to age, but and have a fraction of the energy as the woman you're running against, who's more than who's roughly 20 years your junior. I don't know that you want to call attention to age, but that's what Trump does. A lot of people. I didn't realize she was 60. I thought she was a little younger, but she's 60. She is talking a big game, but her game is pretty bad. I mean, she was the border. She's trying to pretend that she wasn't. You know, it's an amazing thing. Yeah. So, you know, he was surprised that he's running against the border czar. She's trying to pretend that she wasn't, you know, it's an amazing thing. Yeah. So, you know, he was surprised that he's running against the 60 year old.

He thought that Kamala Harris was younger. Laura Ingraham gives Trump the opportunity to sort of clean up J.D. Vance's mess about childless cat ladies and women with no children. And Trump doesn't really seem to clean it up. Women out there watching. I think they understand it. No, I think they understand it. The Democrats are good at spinning things

differently from what they were. All he said is he does like, I mean, for him, he likes family. I think a lot of people like family and sometimes it doesn't work out. And you know why? You don't meet the right person or you don't meet any person,

but you're just as good in many cases, a lot better than a person that's in a family situation. There you go. So clearly bringing back all of the women disgusted with what J.D. Vance said. And then lastly, Trump employing the I know you are, but what am I approach saying, you know who's weird? Kamala Harris is weird. A week after the Harris campaign has been saying, this dude's weird. This movement's weird. Trump going, I've got nothing better than to just say she's the weird. I had a nice seven iron right next to the pin.

Biden wouldn't do that. He couldn't hit the ball. Fifteen years. I mean, what is this? Just plain listen. American families. The whole thing is a con job. Just plain weird.

You know, it's plain weird. She's plain weird. She's a weird person. Look at her past. Look at what she does and look at what she used to say about herself. And I won't get into it. What she used to say and who she was compared to what she said starting at about 2016. Is that making sense to anybody?

But no, it's now Kamala Harris, who's the weird one. So we finally get to the conclusion of this two night event, a Fox News propagandist, Laura Ingraham's interview with Donald Trump. And we learned that Trump can't really explain to us what Melania thinks about the assassination attempt because they don't speak. Trump can't really explain to us based on part one from the previous night what makes J.D. Vance a good VP running mate. He can't really explain why those women and anyone who knows a woman, quite frankly, disgusted by J.D. Vance's comment about childless women, why they should vote for Trump. He can't explain any of it. A softball interview meant to help him,

which probably did more damage than it helped. Make sure you were subscribed to the YouTube channel. We're trying to do this thing. Two point five million subscribers hit the subscribe button. It's free. It's a beautiful thing. I just saw that last month we had four million different viewers who watched clips but didn't subscribe. Four million. If we can capture just a fraction of those. Wow. So hit the subscribe button on YouTube. We'll take a very quick break and be right back with Tim Miller. Did you know that Americans pay twice as much for their wine as the rest of the world? The reason is because of laws that date back to prohibition that ensure the right of wholesalers to make a big margin. It's actually

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Tim Miller, host of the Bulwark podcast, never Trump Republican, former RNC spokesperson. I have a whole list of possible titles here, but we won't use all of those are good. Tim, I've been listening to your podcast and I want to talk to you directly about two things that are happening right now and the dynamics of this very interesting presidential race. Number one, the early attack lines against Kamala Harris. And number two, what seems to be the growing weird and strange attack line against Trump and J.D. Vance. Let's start with the former.

The initial attacks against Kamala Harris included her laugh is like a cackle. She doesn't have biological children. She was the border czar or is the border czar. And she failed this sort of thing. Do you think these attacks make sense knowing the way that the Republican machine operates? Like do you understand why these are the attacks they're choosing and do you think that they're effective? Yeah, well, I do understand why the attacks that the Republicans are choosing. The Republican machine is very good.

A street part of it is very good at identifying perceived weaknesses, identifying things that are maybe a little bit over the line that Democrats wouldn't want to engage in. And because that gets attention, that gets people talking about it. Sometimes that works. Sometimes it backfires. Sometimes you can go too far over the line um and i think that during the trump era uh there has been this weird conventional wisdom that is congealed that that you can't go too far over the line because it worked for trump because trump got elected everybody said and then he became president and so they've used that rationale to justify doing stuff that like we wouldn't have done you know back in my day in the romney republican days and um I think that these attacks on Kamala, I want to put the immigration one to the side. But the cackle, the attacks on our laugh, the DEI attacks, the attacks about childlessness, I think those are over the line. They're going to backfire. Even Fox News host Stuart Varney and Neil Cavuto were making this point yesterday on Fox.

I know I saw that. Yeah. And I just I think that there's a group of people in the middle of this country that, you know, maybe have certain complaints about the Biden Harris administration and are maybe open conceivably to to a Trump ticket or open to just leaving the top of the ticket blank. But they live in a society. They have nieces or sisters, or maybe they themselves are childless. They like the fact that black people and people of color are getting more opportunities

in our society now, right? Like these are good middle-class, middle-of-the-road people, and they don't like this kind of schoolyard bully, racist, sexist BS. And I think it's turning them off. And I think it's a big loser for them. The identity based attacks. I think some of the policy ones might be more effective. OK, so now that you wanted to put the borders are thing aside, there's been somewhat of a focus on that. Trump retruthing some memes about it recently. The counter has been

she's just not the borders are. That's mostly the counter that I've seen. You consider that one to be in a different category. I do just because she did that Lester Holt interview. There's a Trump ad out today that that talks about the problems of the border. And there's a lot of lies in it. You know, it kind of blames Kamala for the fentanyl crisis, which is ridiculous. Fentanyl comes in mostly through points of entry uh legal points of that ports of entry uh but just as a general just speaking only as a political matter right this notion that whether or not she was technically the czar like she was that was part of our portfolio dealing with root causes of immigration um there's there are concerns about that among people in the country some of them legitimate

some of them overblown and she gave that interview to Lester Holt what really before she kind of had her sea legs in the role of VP you know she comes off a little dismissive of it they use a quote where she talks about how she hasn't been to the border she's like I haven't been to Europe either I don't know I just I watched that ad and I could see how that might work with a certain demographic of gettable voters. And I think that in general, her biggest potential vulnerability is just for the less engaged voter, you know, kind of the person that's not watching this YouTube feed, you know, that is only getting politics news via osmosis. Just is this person, is this a California liberal? Is this an open borders left wing socialist,

somebody that's anti-capitalism that I can't vote for? That's not really, that's not true about Kamala Harris, but that is a dangerous perception for her political prospects that I think she has to aggressively push back against. And I think that is a much bigger potential vulnerability than the identity stuff. If you were advising the Trump campaign right now, what would you see as the best attack lines? That this that she might be trying to put on, you know, a new new moderate close. But underneath, this is a far left California liberal that wants to, you know, force you to sell your guns back to the government, that wants to completely decriminalize the border, that wants to, you know, raise taxes

on the middle class, raise taxes on small businesses, that doesn't want to do anything about inflation, that can't solve inflation because she's just a big tax and spend liberal. The standard stuff. Yeah. I think that a standard stuff, that she's a a big tax and spend liberal. The standard stuff. Yeah. I think that a standard stuff that she's a far left tax and spend liberal, more liberal than Joe Biden. Yeah. I think that that,

that is what I would stick to because the people that they're trying to get, you have to understand there are people out there that are racist and sexist that won't vote for because of that. They're already not voting for, right? Right. And so that's why I don't think those attacks work right so the people that they need to get that the trump people need to get to get over the bump are you look at georgia

for example let's just use georgia as a prime example he lost by whatever it was 20 000 votes something like that last time uh wasn't it 11 780 i was thinking of the Rappensperger call in my head. How many did you get? 11,000. There's 20,000 in another state. 11,000 votes, right? Those 11,000 votes, and you could cut it a bunch of different ways.

Maybe it's turnout. But there are a lot in the Georgia suburbs, in the Atlanta suburbs, there are a lot of traditional conservatives. They voted for Brian Kemp for governor. They voted for Raphael Warnock for senator because Herschel Walker was too crazy. They voted for Joe Biden for president because Donald Trump got too crazy. And Donald Trump is starting to try to win some of those folks back. And if you're the Harris campaign, you have to stop that. And if you're the Trump campaign, the way to win those folks back is not to be like this is a childless cat lady. You know, the way to win those folks back is like this is the California liberal that you guys don't like and why you use Mitt Romney. And I think that that kind of softer approach would be their best bet.

Now, let's talk about the long, strange, weird and creepy trip that it's been the last few days. The attacks on J.D. Vance as being weird. Trump is creepy. Pete Buttigieg, Tim Walz. I mean, they're all on message about it. Yeah. What are your thoughts? Been pushing this for a while. It worked on Blake Masters in the midterms. I was on Wilderness, Jon Favreau, I think a year and a half ago where I said that the Democrats should lean into this. It absolutely worked in Arizona. I have a pollster friend in Arizona who was shocked by the number of verbatims. Verbatims are when you do a poll, you're like, hey, do you want Mark Kelly or Blake are you against Blake Masters? And he said it was insane how many people said he's weird. He's creepy.

I don't know. It's them. And it worked that the Kelly versus there's Masters campaign, that line of attack worked. Those same people I was just talking about in the Atlanta suburbs, they they are, you know, they're just regular businessmen with families. You know, I say men because most of the women already vote. Most of their wives are already voting for the Democrat. And they are not looking for some tech bro weirdo who wants to determine whether their daughter is have uh get medical treatment for ectopic pregnancy they're not worried they do not want some guy that is obsessed with having genital checks at high school swimming meets right to make sure i i all that stuff is weird and it's creepy i think creepy is really the key word because that is about somebody that wants to

have control over other people you know weird might be like you have weird interests like you know you're you're into knitting or whatever you have weird interests like that's not what we're talking about we're talking about is knitting that weird though i guess not i guess maybe for maybe uh you know maybe in certain in certain demos knitting might be kind of weird i guess you're right though what would be what would be uh what would be i don't know i'm not sure you know like being really into bats i don't know like there are plenty of things you know having having a pet raft i had a friend with a pet raft that's kind of weird that's not what we're talking about right talking about creepy we're talking about these these guys that want to have control over other people and they have these obsessions with gender and with when women

are having babies and with whether women can, you know, be in charge in boardrooms and whether you drink your Bud Light or, you know, what the what the show, the opening ceremonies at the Olympics were all about. Like these guys are all just obsessed with weird stuff. They want to control you and people don't like that. And I think that's an effective message. Before we move on to a couple of polling things. Yeah. Since the failed assassination attempt on the failed former president, there were these moments where initially it was was Trump struck by a bullet or was it a piece of glass from the prompter? But the prompter was fine. So it was a bullet, at least according to

Trump. But then we didn't get a medical report. Christopher Wray goes, we are actually still trying to determine it. But then now it's it was a bullet. We just don't know if it was like a shot from the bullet or a fragment of the bullet or kind of a careening bullet that was going end over end after striking something else. Listen, I don't know what it was, although the injury seemed quite modest. Is your take that it's not really a great strategy to keep talking about what exactly and how Trump was struck? Like it's just not useful for the left to really talk about it very much. Totally.

I think it's a loser. It makes people sound crazy themselves and a little conspiratorial. The reality is a bullet went went flying past his head right even in the even in the conspiracy theory version of this right where it's a fragment it's like he was shot at there's an attempted assassination a bullet went past his head he was bleeding out the ear and then he had to wear it with all to kind of stand up in that moment and have that iconic picture i that was you know in that moment it played right into trump's frame of this campaign he was Trump's frame of this campaign.

He was making this frame of this campaign that he's strong, Biden's weak. And that really played into his hands. And obviously he got lucky, thank God, that, you know, the bullet wasn't a little bit closer to him or else we'd be having a whole different conversation right now. So I just don't think that talking about that element of this is helpful at all for the left. Here's one thing I do think is worth talking about if that subject comes up. The fact that this was another troubled young that he had easy access to an assault weapon, and he had easy access. He could just walk into Home Depot and get 50 rounds of bullets and walk right out, despite the fact that he was underage. He couldn't have bought a white claw that day,

but he could have bought 50 rounds of bullets. I think that is, again, going back to who this core audience is, these suburban swing voters, they don't want troubled 20 year olds to be able to get ARs. And I think kind of reframing this conversation about that rather than about, you know, whether there was a second shooter on the grassy knoll would be wise for the left. Do you think if Trump does end up dead that day. Joe Biden is still in the race today. No, really. I don't think that Joe. I got in a lot of trouble in my podcast from from people that are big Biden fans. So, you know, we're maybe into it. I'm trying to let bygones be bygones on this. Joe Biden couldn't campaign. Joe Biden was a very was not capable of doing the basic things necessary to campaign i'm not saying he

couldn't still be the president but he could not make compelling coherent arguments you know even in his overall office address so that he's still talking over his words he sounds people say it's a stutter it wasn't and he does have a stutter but he sounded very different than he did four years ago just watch the clips of him for eight years ago i think uh i don't know i think we would have been a very scary time had trump been assassinated. I don't, I have no idea who the Republicans would have nominated. Like, like literally, I could have, you could have literally told me anybody besides Nikki Haley, it wouldn't have been Nikki Haley, but it would have been somebody MAGA. But that person would have had momentum in the polls and the kind of rationale for Biden staying in about the threat

to democracy. Look, we're in a total counterfactual, but I think that the pressure would have continued to mount on him to step aside because of his inability to do the basic elements of a campaign, which require, you know, a certain level of being able to communicate. So June 26, the day before the debate, real clear politics. Polling average is Trump plus one point five. Today as we record this interview, it's Trump plus one point seven. In the intervening time, you saw maybe the worst debate performance, I guess, since Nixon from Joe Biden. We're we saw.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You saw Trump survive an assassination attempt, have a week long party celebrating him at the RNC and finally finish the veep stakes reality show that lasted months or a year and select J.D. Vance. And all of this got him zero point two percentage points in the national RealClearPolitics polling average. What's going on since isn't this supposed

to be the peak after all of these successes and victories? He got no bump out of the convention, which I think is very noteworthy. He did get a modest bump out of, to call it a bump is maybe a little gauche, but his polling did approve for a little while after the failed assassination attempt. But that's come back down to earth after Biden dropped out of the race. And I think right now, what you're seeing in the polls is kind of this reversion to the mean. Trump's main advantage in the polls, all year really, was that there's certain parts of the Democratic coalition, traditional Democratic voters that were unhappy with Joe Biden, either because of inflation or age, or Gaza.

It was younger voters, it was Black and Hispanic men mostly, and then a handful of other voters who had issues related to inflation or age, and that were traditionally Democrats. All of those folks, nearly all of them are already home with the Democrats, with Kamala.

And so that now we've reverted back to the mean and we're back on the same, um, uh, ground of which type of voters to compete against that we were in 2020. Uh, you know, it is working class white women, you know, who, um, are, are unhappy who, who I didn't want the overturn of Roe. Um, it is college educated men, um, that have been traditionally Republicans, but don't like Donald Trump, uh, these swing voters. Uh, and then there's a turnout battle that's going to happen. So I think right now, essentially after like the most insane month in a half century in politics, we've really just reverted back to the mean. And I think that Kamala has room to grow.

And if you look at these poll numbers, it usually takes about two weeks for stuff to sink in, you know. And and so I think that probably we'll see her poll numbers improve over the next few weeks as she chooses a VP and has a convention of her own. How much? I don't think she's going to be up fifty five forty five. This is not the country we're in. But now I think that she'll improve at least modestly in the coming weeks. So in a sense, it almost seems like, I mean, Trump got 46 percent of the vote in 2016. He got 46 point something in 2020. He's polling 47. Is this just the peak of what Trump can garner as far as support in this country? Yes. This is the other good news. I think that Trump is about a 40. Maybe I think he could get up to 47 because I do think he's improved a little bit with that group of working class men of color.

Again, tiny bit. So if he has 46 point something that, you know, you push up another point five to 47 percent. That's probably realistic to see that. But 47 percent isn't enough to win unless RFK Jr. gets a big slice of the pie or some of these other third party. Well, hold on. He won with 46 in 2016. Right. But why? Because Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin got huge, you know, got huge percentage. I don't have in front of me, but but got significant percentage of the vote way more than the third party candidates did in in 2020. So before what you didn't want was people that were unhappy with both candidates to have this, you know, off ramp, if you will.

And RFK, he has like a handful of super fans. But then besides that, he was just gobbling up people that were like, I'm sick of these two old guys. I don't want them. I'm going to go for the also old, but slightly less old guy instead. Right. This is a protest. Right. Now that Kamala is there, I think that protest vote number is going to go way, way down.

And she is going to gobble up all the people that are traditionally Democrats that weren't happy with Biden. And then, you know, she's got to fight to get her number up to 50, 49, 50, enough to win a close election. I think that's really doable. I think the map is very doable for her. It opens up more states having her on the top of the ticket, but it's going to be a dogfight like it is not. It's not I don't see a blowout coming. But I think that if you have Trump at 46 or 47 for Kamala, it's about kind of hoovering up as much of the rest of that group as possible and getting the RFK number as low as possible.

Last thing I want to ask you about relates to J.D. Vance. It seems to me J.D. Vance doesn't really get Trump any new votes. Tell me if my instinct is wrong. And then also there's rumors that Trump is displeased with the way the J.D. Vance experiment is going and that maybe there's a change coming. Is that even realistic to think about or no? I wouldn't say the zero percent chance we're living in strange times, but I think it's pretty small. Those rumors I can say on pretty good authority is there is a group of people around Trump who are traditional foreign policy hawk Republicans

that that kind of hope that they can just put their own people in the foreign and the Department of Defense and Secretary of State and, you know, kind of get most of what they would want. And they were very unhappy with the J.D. Fance pick because he's more of a nationalist isolationist in the mold of Trump. Yes. So I think it's most of the I think that what you're hearing is is is rumors and gossip mongering dribbling out of that world. Right.

Trying to undermine Vance. Well, will that work? Probably not. But I think that they're going to try to kneecap Vance, people in that traditional foreign policy hawk kind of wing of the Republican Party. And then as far as Vance is concerned, electorally, he does add nothing. I thought so at the time. I do think they tricked themselves. I think Don Jr. tricked his dad, at least, into believing that he helped with like upper Midwest, you know, working class white males. And I just, there's no evidence of that in any of the, you know, in any of the polling or in J.D. Vance's election performance, which was way worse than the Republican governor on the same ticket, Mike DeWine, who doesn't claim to have any ties to Appalachia or the working white working class.

So J.D. Vance is not, he's a, he has negative charisma and his comments about women i think trump being weird there's the part of the reason why the weird thing is like landing now just to circle back to that is is trump's weirdness has an appeal to certain people not me right it's kind of like a he's like a vuncular charming like new york he's weird but it's like in a way that makes you laugh some people not me jd vance doesn't make anybody laugh no like his weirdness is just you are creepy you you want women to stay in marriages even if they are being abused you have deep thoughts about when women should bear their children like it is it is creepy it is unusual you're the way you carry yourself is creepy and i think that is like splashing up onto Trump

in a way that's unhelpful for for certain voters. Not to mention, I don't know if you've seen video of the campaign stops with Usha Vance. She does not seem happy to be there is the I don't know if I'm reading too much into it, but combining the expressions on her face and her prior comments about Trump, I struggle to believe she's done a 180 and is totally behind this thing. Yeah. Well, you made your bed and you got to lie in it. You made your couch and you got to lie in it. You got to lie. Exactly. Tim Miller, host of the Bulwark podcast. Always great to talk to you, Tim. Thanks, David. Thanks for having me on, brother. See you soon. One of our sponsors is Zippix nicotine toothpicks. Don't you think it's time you stopped putting smoke and vape oils in your lungs is Zippix nicotine toothpicks. Don't you think it's time you stopped putting

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why our sponsor paired has been such a valuable tool for so many people. It's the app for couples who want to strengthen their relationship every day. Paired gives you personalized questions or quizzes or games to stay connected, deepen your conversations and have fun. The best part is you can't see your partner's answer until you answer. So it's a safe space to have an open and honest The David Pakman Show David Pakman dot com. for years like I have, I still feel like paired helps me learn new things and stay connected. Whether you're just a few dates in or you've been together a long time like me, find the time to connect with your partner, nourish the relationship, head to paired dot com slash Pacman to get a seven day free trial and 25 percent off. If you sign up for a subscription, that's P.A.I.R.E.D. dot com There was a hearing yesterday during which we heard new details about the man who tried but failed to kill Donald Trump.

We heard these details from FBI Deputy Director Paul Abate. And I have to tell you, it was not very shocking to hear that they figured out that the shooter was into some right wing stuff. You know, if it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck and it smells like a duck and it reproduces like a duck, it's probably a duck. And when we heard that the Republican son of a Republican gun owner with Trump signs on his lawn shot at Trump, it sure seemed like this was a right wing thing. And now we've learned, thanks to FBI testimony, that the Trump rally shooter had a social media account with anti-Semitic and anti-immigration themes and espoused political violence, all of it extreme in nature. Here's Paul Abate, the FBI deputy

director, saying it himself. Something just very recently uncovered that I want to share is a social media account which is believed to be associated with this with the shooter in about the 2019 2020 time frame. There were over 700 comments posted from this account. Some of these comments, if ultimately attributable to the shooter, appear to reflect anti-Semitic and anti-immigration themes to espouse political violence and are described as extreme in nature. While the investigative team is still working to verify this account to determine if it did in fact belong to the shooter, we believe it important to share and note it today, particularly given the general absence of other information to date

from social media and other sources of information that reflect on the shooter's potential motive and mindset. Now, in hearing this, of course, a whole bunch of mega types have come out of the woodwork and they've said, see, we knew it. We knew that this information was going to come out later and they were going to try to pin this on the right when it was obviously a left winger that shot Trumper, it was even some kind of set up or a staged thing, none of which there is any evidence for. And at some point you just kind of have to say, I don't know, Republican shooting Trump AR 15 Trump loving dad lawn signs.

It's probably a right winger who, for whatever reason, either wanted attention or became disaffected with Trump or Trump wasn't right wing enough or who knows. But there's certainly nothing, nothing pointing to the left. Now, either way, I denounce it. Either way, I don't want candidates killed or shot. I want to win with votes rather than bullets. But at a certain point, you have to say, oh, it's the thing it looked like it was. Now, a little bonus insanity from this hearing. Here is Senator John Kennedy, Republican Senator John Kennedy, no relation to the Democratic Kennedy family, bringing up

two FBI officials, Peter Strzok and whatever the other woman's name was. I can't even remember. This relates to the this was a storyline from twenty eighteen and it doesn't need to be revived. It has nothing to do with what's going on right now, but it's all Kennedy has. So he brings it up in which the FBI agreed to give Peter struck one point two million dollars and Ms. Lisa Page eight hundred thousand dollars. It's my understanding, Senator, that the Department of Justice was involved in that, not the FBI. The FBI had nothing to do with it?

There may have been consultation with our general counsel's office, but... Did the FBI have to sign off on it? I don't know the answer to that. I don't believe so, but I would want to confirm that. I would like you to... This would be the the same Lisa Page who said, yeah, anyway, this is the struck page thing that Trump was obsessed with six

years ago. It has nothing whatsoever to do with what's going on right now. And then finally, to cap it off, Josh Hawley's questioning of the active sorry, the acting Secret Service director Ronald Rowe turns into a shouting match as conversations with Josh Hawley tend to do. What do you need to investigate to know exactly what you need to investigate to know that there were critical enough failures that some individuals ought to be held accountable? I mean, what more do you need to know? What I need to know is exactly what happened, and I need my investigators to do their job, and I cannot put my thumb on the scale.

Otherwise, the objective... What do you mean, put your thumb on the scale? You're asking me, Senator, to completely make a rush to judgment about somebody failing. I acknowledge this was a failure of the... Is it not prima facie that somebody has failed? The former president was shot, sir. This could have been our Texas school book depository.

I have lost sleep over that for the last 17 days, just like somebody. This idiotic grandstanding from Republicans who suddenly find their anger and they never do after a school shooting. They never do after a mass shooting. At that point, we don't want to politicize and let's not start pointing fingers. All of a sudden, Josh Hawley is angry. Really despicable stuff. We have a great bonus show for you today. We're going to dive into the Kamala is the border czar story that we talked about a little bit with Tim Miller today. The Project 2025 director has stepped down. Why? We will discuss it and so much more when I'm joined on the bonus show by producer Pat. Make sure you're signed up at join Pacman dot com. Best way to support the work we do.

And you get access to the bonus show. And we'll be back tomorrow with a new program as well.