The David Pakman Show - 8/1/24: Trump goes racist & sexist, polling collapses, campaign in freefall

Episode Date: August 1, 2024

-- On the Show: -- In a stunning new poll, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by 4 points nationally in the presidential election -- JD Vance is losing one point of favorability per day in new polling, confirming the cratering of his public image -- Donald Trump is interviewed at the National Association of Black Journalists conference, and the interview goes horribly wrong -- Donald Trump makes the audience at the NABJ gasp when he claims that Kamala Harris used to be Indian but has become Black -- Kamala Harris takes the high road during a speech in Houston, Texas in response to Donald Trump's comments about her becoming Black after previously being Indian -- A deep dive into Kamala Harris' electoral paths to victory -- A notably disoriented Donald Trump slurs and glitches badly during a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania -- On the Bonus Show: Why calling Trump and Vance "weird" is working, Twitter suspends "White Dudes for Harris" account after fundraiser, Illinois bans forcible anti-union propaganda by employers, much more... 💪 Get your copy of “Aim for the Uprights” at https://davidpakman.com/aim 👕 Laundry Sauce: Get 15% off with code PAKMAN at https://laundrysauce.com/pakman ⚠️ Try Ground News and get 40% OFF the Vantage plan at https://ground.news/pakman 🛡️ Incogni lets you control your personal data! Get 60% off their annual plan: http://incogni.com/pakman 💪 Athletic Greens is offering FREE year-supply of Vitamin D at https://athleticgreens.com/pakman -- Become a Member: https://www.davidpakman.com/membership -- Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/davidpakmanshow -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow -- Pakman Discord: https://www.davidpakman.com/discord -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow -- Leave a Voicemail: (219)-2DAVIDP

Welcome to the show in a shocking new poll. Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally by four points as Donald Trump is collapsing and panicking daily. And J.D. Vance is losing one point of favorability every single day. What an incredible turn of events in American politics. Let's discuss it in a new civics daily cause poll. Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump nationally. Forty nine to forty five.

This is the best result for Kamala Harris so far. We will talk about how this fits into the average of polls. But what a number notable that among those 18 to 34, Kamala Harris is leading by more than 20 points among 35 to 49. She's leading by nearly 10 points. But among those 50 and older, that is the group with which Donald Trump continues to lead a large majority of Democratic voters. Sixty four percent in this same poll said they are glad that Biden decided to exit the 2024 presidential race. Only 11 percent of Democrats say they wish Biden were still running. These are incredible numbers. Now, the way that this has

affected an average, you know, if we think about we might think about the average of polls as a line and individual polling just as dots on that line, points on that line. If we take this Kamala plus four poll and average it into the national polling, what we see is that Trump's national lead has been reduced by 30 percent overnight as a result of a series of recent polls. So let's discuss that. You may recall that not long ago, Donald Trump was leading by two percent, two point seven percent, roughly as Joe Biden exited the race. And in came Kamala Harris. And most recently, it was Trump plus two.

Based on this new polling from civics, as well as a number of other polls we will look at in a moment, Donald Trump's national lead is now one point four. When you go from two to one point four, you're reducing the lead by point six. That's 30 percent. That's a 30 percent reduction. Now, of course, these are small numbers and we have to understand the limitations of changes in such small numbers. The civics poll is not the only good poll for Kamala Harris, where previously Trump was winning every poll, although some by only one. The last four polls are Kamala plus four.

Trump plus four Kamala press plus one. That's Reuters, Ipsos and Kamala plus one in the morning consult poll. So forget about the details. Zoom out. The two important takeaways are anecdotally, there is a growing number of polls that have Kamala Harris in the lead. And as an average of polling, Trump's lead is now barely a single point. Now later on in the show, we are going to do sort of a deeper dive into the paths to

victory because I know many of you are probably hearing me talk about national numbers and you're with tears in your eyes. You're saying, David, sir, I respect you so much and I know that you're putting in the effort and doing the best you can. Most of you are thinking this. I'm sure this is how what I think when I listen to podcasts. The host is doing such a good job. But this is we have an electoral college in the United States. Whether Kamala Harris wins or loses the popular vote by a few points, it's almost certainly going to come down to fewer than half a million votes

in three to five critical swing states. And you would be completely correct. So later in the show, we are going to get into the electoral paths to victory, approval, polling and a whole bunch of other things. But by itself, stunning that we now are getting individual data points on the general polling line where Kamala Harris is winning by four. If this race continues to shift over the next two weeks, the way it has over the last two weeks, you could be talking about significant, statistically significant leads for Kamala Harris nationally. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's talk about the other side of the coin, which is as Kamala Harris's stock continues

to rise. J.D. Vance's shares are increasingly worthless. J.D. Vance is being considered the worst vice presidential pick dating back to 1972. That's like hundreds of years ago. It feels like there is new approval polling for J.D. Vance that shows him losing a point of favorability every day over the last 10 days. These are insanely bad numbers. And this is why when Trump was asked by Laura Ingraham, can you guarantee us that J.D. Vance was really a great pick?

Trump had nothing to say other than he really likes family. When he was asked yesterday at the National Association of Black Journalists, is J.D. Vance ready to be president on day one as VP? Trump didn't say, yes, he is. He said something like he's a good guy or I've always respected him or something like that. It appears as though even Trump is struggling to justify this election. So take a look at this. The important data here relates to the ABC News Ipsos poll.

J.D. Vance, about 10 days ago, was a minus six in favorability. What favorability minus six means is that your unfavorability exceeds your favorability by six points. OK, about 10 days ago, J.D. Vance was at a minus six. He is now at a minus 15. So let's do the math in nine. I'm sorry. In 10 days, he's lost nine points, meaning with every day that goes by, with every day that J.D. Vance is out on the campaign trail, with every day that J.D. Vance is talking about childless cat ladies or videos and audio of J.D. Vance saying horrible things are unearthed or Trump himself is unable to justify or even barely say anything positive about J.D. Vance every single day that goes by. He is losing one point of favorability, an additional one percent

of America, which is roughly three point three million people. Obviously, that includes kids. But as a general rule of thumb, one percent of America every day goes, I actually don't like this guy. I have an unfavorable view of him. I have a negative view of him. That's an absolute and total disaster. CNN's Harry Enten is calling Vance the worst pick since 1972, pointing to the childless, childless cat lady comments and saying it's the worst vice presidential pick of my lifetime, of my lifetime, which is really, really wild stuff. So where does this put us with regard to Trump's consideration of replacing J.D. Vance? I actually have no idea. There are rumors on both sides. Yesterday, Tim Miller told us that it would be relatively

difficult, actually, at this point to do it from a political standpoint. There's no rule. I mean, you could do it. I got a bunch of emails from folks in the audience who said, oh, you know what? They're going to pull David. They are going to do the there is a health issue. J.D. Vance is having a health issue. I struggle to believe that I struggle to believe that it would be credible. I don't think that that's going to be the situation. If there were to be a change to the VP running alongside Trump, I think it would be couched simply as Trump being Trump making the difficult decisions, framing himself as the tough guy who's willing to go and say you're fired and just move on as quickly as they can.

Sort of the way the Democratic Party has from Joe Biden's candidacy. But I don't expect some kind of convoluted illness situation. And there is also the growing aspect to this where I am no longer the only one. I was never the only one. But I am I am now seeing many others point to the very palpable and apparent discomfort and disengagement from Usha Vance, J.D. Vance's wife. And this is, of course, all speculative, circumstantial and anecdotal. But we are seeing a lot of these data points. She previously expressed being appalled by Trump in private communications. It's very hard to imagine even the most craven and naked thirst for power, which being V.P. certainly gives you.

It's hard to imagine that really changing her perspective on Trump. So put aside for a second that J.D. Vance almost certainly still thinks of Trump as a doofus as he used to. Usha Vance really seems to dislike the guy at a recent campaign stop, a staged campaign event at a diner in Minnesota. She looked genuinely miserable in recent images from her on the campaign plane, seeming completely disengaged, just reading a book as conversations are going on around her. Now, you could say, you know, pictures rather than video don't represent the full story. Anything could have been going on. Absolutely. It is a speculative sort of narrative that we are trying to build up from individual bullet points.

But if I had to guess, Usha Vance is not happy with what's going on. She's not enjoying this. She doesn't like the idea of her husband being so closely associated with a guy that she finds appalling. So all of this points to trouble in paradise. Whether it leads to the replacement of J.D. Vance, I have absolutely no idea. I want to hear from you. Does Trump replace J.D. Vance? Info at David Pakman dot com. We'll take a very quick break and be right back. One of today's sponsors is a book called Aim for the Uprights by Stu Crumb, a former professional be right back. for achieving your professional and personal aspirations through intentional living. I've been talking a lot about intentionality lately. If you've tried getting up extra early,

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The David Pakman Show is made possible, funded and supported by none other than you, our audience. We primarily depend on direct support through memberships available at join Pakman dot com. I invite you to sign up. We do an extra show every single day for our members. Thank you, David. events and so many other great things. So check it out at join Pacman dot com. I think the prices are quite reasonable. However, we do make a discount code available to anybody who wants it. That discount code is save democracy. Twenty four. All one word, all lowercase. I got an email yesterday from someone who said, David, the coupon code twenty twenty four didn't work. That's right. That's not the code. The code is save democracy 24 without any spaces and without any extraneous characters, condiments or anything else. Save democracy 24 at join Pacman dot com. Donald Trump got absolutely crushed yesterday during an interview

at the National Association of Black Journalists event. Now, a lot of people are saying, David, why is the race card being played? Why are people talking about black interviewer Rachel Scott and black interviewer Harris Faulkner? It sounds like you liberals are playing the race card. Well, it matters because this was an event at the National Association of Black Journalists. The entire context here is one where, despite claims from Trump that black Americans are flocking to him in a recent Michigan poll, Trump got zero percent of the black vote. It is highly politically relevant that this is an audience made up of black journalists. And the first question was absolutely wild.

Trump hated it. And it only went downhill from here. Mr. President, we so appreciate you giving us an hour of your time. I want to start by addressing the elephant in the room, sir. A lot of people did not think it was appropriate for you to be here today. You have pushed false claims about some of your rivals. This is like brutal right off the bat. From Nikki Haley to former President Barack Obama saying that they were not born in the United States, which is not true. You have told four congresswoman of color who were American citizens to go back to where they came from. You have used words like animal and rabbit to describe

black district attorneys. You've had dinner with a white supremacist at your Mar-a-Lago resort. So my question, sir, now that you are asking black supporters to vote for you, why should black voters trust you after you have used language like that? Well, first of all, I don't think I've ever been asked a question. So in such a horrible manner, the first question, the crowd is already like, what on earth? This is going wrong instantly. Just opened his mouth. Hello. How are you? Are you with ABC? Because I think they're a fake news network, a terrible network. And I think it's disgraceful that I came here in good spirit.

I love the black population of this country. I've done so much for the black population of this country. The crowd is in disbelief at what's happening, including employment, including opportunity zones with Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. It is beyond belief that this went so poorly. Now there are right wingers cheering this and saying he stepped into the lion's den and he did so well. I don't think so.

If you watch the whole thing, I certainly don't think so. He continues to attack the interviewer. If I came onto a stage like this and I got treated so rudely as this woman. Oh, my goodness. This woman, this woman. Wow. Treated so rudely as this woman. Oh, my goodness.

And I'm fine with it because she it does it. She was very rude, sir. Very rude. That was a nasty. That wasn't a question. She didn't ask me a question. She gave a statement. That wasn't a question. I repeated your statement, sir, actually. It was nasty to read my own statements back to me. And it only got worse from here. The topic of the January 6th rioters came up. Trump asked, would you pardon them? And he goes, sure, if they're innocent, to which Rachel Scott points out, well, by they are definitionally not innocent because they've been convicted. And Trump's like, oh, well, Portland that destroyed my question is on those that happened. My question

is on those rioters who assaulted officers. You have to ask you part. What's going to happen? Oh, absolutely. I would. You would. If they're innocent, I would pardon them. They've been convicted. And by the way, the Supreme Court just under, well, they were convicted by a very, a very tough system. They were, how come the people that tried to burn down Minneapolis, how come the people that took over a large percentage of Seattle, how come nothing happened to them? How come the people that took over a large percentage of Seattle, how come nothing happened to them? How come the people that were seen beating officers with flagpoles, dragging them down the stairs? They're on video. Have you seen that video, sir?

You would pardon those rioters? They shot a young lady in the face who was protesting. They shot her in the face who was protesting. They shot her in the face. You know, nobody died that day. You do know that. But people died in Seattle. Nobody died, but people died in Minneapolis. You know people died in Minneapolis.

And nothing happens, and nobody ever talks, and nothing happens to those people. But you went after the J6 people with a vengeance. And I'll tell you what, what about the cops that were and I'm all for the police, as you know. But what about the police that are ushering, ushering everybody into the Capitol? So this is not a great answer if you're on the side of law and order. And it was all like this, either tangential non-responses or attacks on the interviewers. Trump asked, is J.D. Vance ready on day one to be president of the United States? He would be a heartbeat away from the presidency as your vice president. And Trump basically says VPs don't matter. I mean, this is part of why we're wondering,

is he done with Vance? Because every opportunity he gets to defend J.D., he's kind of like, I don't know, he's a good guy. I respect him, but it doesn't even really matter. And that's why this decision is important this time. Bad things happen. You said it twice. When you look at J.D. Vance, is he ready on day one? Does he what? Ready on day one, if he has to be. I've always had great respect for him and for the other candidates, too.

But I will say this, and I think this is well documented. Historically, the vice president in terms of the election does not have any impact. I mean, can you imagine for everybody really worried that I picked a doofus? It's completely irrelevant who I pick virtually no impact. You have two or three days where there's a lot of commotion as to who like you're having it on the Democrat side, who it's going to be. And then that dies down. And it's all about the presidential pick virtually never has it mattered. Maybe Lyndon Johnson mattered for different reasons and what we're talking about, not

for vote reasons, but for political reasons, other political reasons. But historically, the choice of a vice president makes no difference. It's it's amazing. Could you defend your choice? Are you have you selected someone who could actually be president? It's completely irrelevant. What a ringing endorsement. My VP pick is completely irrelevant. Now, maybe most relevant to what's going on with J.D. Vance. Trump says he didn't know about J.D. Vance's childless cat lady comments when he selected him as the VP and that it's not something he even agrees with. He said the Democrats running the country are a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable

at their own lives and the choices they've made. And so they don't they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too. He's not talking here about how great it is to be a parent. He's attacking what he says are the choices people are making to not have children. Did you know that he had these views about people who do not have children before you picked him to be your running maiden? Do you agree with him? No, I know this. He is very family oriented and he thinks family is a great thing. That doesn't mean he thinks that if you don't have a family, it's not. I know people with families. I know people with great families.

I know people with very troubled families. And I also know people with no families. They didn't meet the right person. Things happen. You go through life, you don't meet the right person. But he's not just talking about families here. He also says that people that don't have children should get less votes than those that do. I'm just speaking for myself.

Is that your campaign position? I think I'm speaking for him, too. He strongly believes in family. But I know people with great families. I know people having to defend the crazy things that your VP running mate is going around saying is not a positive thing for your campaign with not great families that don't have a family and the people without the family are far better. They're superior in many cases, okay?

He's not saying they're not. What he's saying is that he thinks the family experience is a very important thing. It's a very good thing. But that doesn't mean that if you grow up and you grow older and you don't meet somebody that would be wonderful to meet and would have been good, that that's a bad thing. He's not saying that. My interpretation.

He kind of is. You'll have to ask him, actually. But my interpretation is he's strongly family oriented. But that doesn't mean if you don't have a family, there's something wrong with it. Just one last point and then we'll move on. Just one of the bedrock principles of American life is one person, one vote. Senator J.D. Vance has suggested that someone who has children should have more votes than a person who does not have children. I just want to be clear

here. Is that the position of your campaign? Well, no, but it's not something I have ever heard. No, it's not something Trump believes, but he's kind of playing coy and is like, I don't know what a diddy Vance really actually said that Trump then trying to attack Kamala Harris. But it's like these attacks are like nothing. These are just totally flaccid attacks saying, you know, she didn't pass her bar, her bar exam the first time she might fail a cognitive test that Trump wants the cognitive test up against Kamala Harris seems very dumb. Joe and I will go and take a cognitive test.

Now, I do it with her, too. I would do it with her also. You know what? She failed her law exam. She didn do it with her too. I would do it with her also. You know what? She failed her law exam. She didn't pass her law exam. So maybe she wouldn't pass the cognitive test. Mr. President, are you saying she wouldn't pass? Just to be clear, I'm just giving you the fact to be clear. You don't think she didn't pass her bar exam and she didn't think she would pass it and she didn't think she was going to have it pass it. And I don't know what happened. Maybe she passed it.

I guess there's a man over here. Yeah. I don't know that cognitive tests are what he wants to do against Kamala Harris. And then finally, and we'll get to Kamala became black. That was so crazy. It deserves its own segment. Finally, this completely bizarre interview ends with barely any applause. And Trump just kind of getting up and walking away. Remember, they're taking your jobs. These people coming in are taking your job.

I think we have to leave it there by the Trump team. All right. So leave it. That is the last word. Thank you so much, Mr. Trump, for coming, coming today and joining us. The audience is just in disbelief. Well, thank you very much. They've been telling us. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Very much. Oh, man. What? I had a feeling this could go wrong, but it went way more wrong. You know, I don't know that this is going to push up Trump's black support in Michigan from the zero where it was found to be last week. I don't know that he really achieved that. And then now we are going to look at maybe the wildest moment from the entire thing.

I've never seen anything like this. The audience at Trump's interview with the National Association of Black Journalists audibly gasps when Trump says that Indian Kamala Harris turned black. She became black. I saw the headlines before I saw the video and I said to myself, there is no way Trump would be so stupid to go to the NABJ after polling zero among black Americans in Michigan and say something this ridiculous. But then we saw the video. Let's play it with a little bit of lead up. Unbelievable. And the crowd audibly gasping. And then we'll move on to other questions here. Some of your own supporters, including Republicans on Capitol Hill, have labeled Vice President Kamala Harris, who was the first black and Asian-American woman to serve as vice president, be on a major party ticket as a DEI hire. Is that acceptable language to you?

And will you tell those Republicans and those supporters to stop it? How do you define DEI? Go ahead. How do you define it? Diversity, equity, inclusion. Okay, yeah. Go ahead. Is that what your definition?

That is literally the words. Give me a definition then. Would you give me a definition of that? Give me a definition. Sir, I'm asking you a question. No, no, you ahead. Is that what your definition? That is literally the words. Give me a definition then. Would you give me a definition of that? Give me a definition. Sir, I'm asking you a question, a very direct question. Define it for me, if you will. I just defined it, sir. Do you believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is only on the ticket because she is a black woman? Well, I can say, no, I think it's maybe a little bit different.

So, I've known her a long time indirectly, not directly very much. And she was always of Indian heritage and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn't know she was black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black. And now she wants to be known as black. So I don't know. Is she Indian or is she black? She is always identified as a black. I respect either one. I respect either one. But she obviously doesn't because she was Indian all the way.

And then all of a sudden she made a turn and she went she became a black person. Be clear, sir. Do you believe this guy's out of his mind? mind. You know, I don't even know if there is value in talking about the substance here, because as many of you may know, Kamala Harris is half Indian, half Jamaican. And when I was younger and worked at Circuit City, I've mentioned before that I had a Jamaican manager and he would always say he doesn't consider he says I'm not African American and that's what people mean when they say black. So I just tell people I'm not black. Now, there's a lot of history and scholarship around this in a strict sense. Jamaicans are not African-American. They're Afro-Caribbean. Now, some people use black interchangeably with African-American in that sense. If you're Jamaican, you're not black.

But at the same time, for many people, black is broader and it just means anyone of African descent. So you could be African-American. You could be Afro-Caribbean, you could be Afro-Cuban, which would be a specific Afro-Caribbean. Or some people say, well, Cuba is not really in the Caribbean. Anybody with African descent or folks in Brazil of African descent are black, but they certainly aren't African-American in the sense that they're not American from the United States. So there is a conversation there. But that's not what Trump is talking about. I don't know that we really need to focus on that, because what Trump's talking about

is just the idea that similar to how he has criticized Elizabeth Warren, that Kamala Harris is calculating when to play up which identity in a way that is nakedly political and cynical and craven or whatever. And I think that that's what this is really about. And as a side note, there is a serious media double standard here because think about the weeks and thousands of stories of what we got after Joe Biden's bad debate performance. This is insane.

What Trump said here is absolutely insane. And I assume it's gone from the news cycle, certainly by Monday, if not by this weekend. And so there is a serious double standard there. But this this is just completely whacked. And as far as Kamala Harris goes, you know, there are I mean, listen, I'm Jewish and I'm Hispanic. Right. I mean, I'm a Jewish individual. And sometimes I talk about anti-Semitism. And when I talk about anti-Semitism, me being Hispanic and from Argentina doesn't really relate to the subject matter. So sometimes people accuse me of playing up. relate to the subject matter. So sometimes people

accuse me of playing up. Look at the YouTube comments. I play up my Jewish identity when it's convenient and I ignore the fact that I'm actually really Hispanic. And then similarly, sometimes when we talk about the voting patterns of Central and South Americans, I talk about my family background from Argentina and then people show up in the comments and they go, I thought you were Jewish. You're just doing this. This is a common criticism from the right that's used to invalidate people based on identity. And I don't know that we should really play into it is where I land.

But what a wack thing to say. Kamala Harris speaking in Houston yesterday, she addressed Donald Trump's completely whacked out comment that she used to be Indian, but she became black, which Trump said during an interview at the NABJ, the National Association of Black Journalists Conference. I think Kamala Harris does a couple of really good things here. And one of the things is she doesn't repeat exactly what Donald Trump said. And number two, she doesn't directly engage with the substance in trying to defend her identity. She just points out how absolutely pathetic Trump's comments are. I think this is very smart. Let's take a listen. We all here remember

what those four years were like. And today we were given yet another reminder. This afternoon, Donald Trump spoke at the annual meeting of the National Association of Black Journalists. And it was the same old show. The divisiveness and the disrespect. And let me just say, the American people deserve better. The American people deserve better. The American people deserve a leader who tells the truth. A leader who does not respond with hostility and anger when confronted with the facts. We deserve a leader who understands that our differences do not divide us. They are an essential source of our strength. So I say to Sigma Gamma Rho Sorority Incorporated,

ours is a fight for the future. I think this is super smart. She's not going up there and saying, did you hear that Trump said and quoting him? She's not going up there and saying, as many of you know, I am the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father and my identity and intersectionality. She's not doing that. And I think that's smart because you're starting to play the game and that's where others have fallen flat. She's rising above it and saying this is the kind of garbage that we saw from Trump last time. This is what we are going to continue to see. It's not what the country needs.

It's beneath us. I'm not even going to get down in the mud. Now there's an argument for getting down in the mud that some will make. And on some issues, in some cases, I think that makes sense. Here it doesn't. I think Kamala Harris handled this absolutely perfectly. Let me know what you think. Info at David Pakman dot com. Right now we are seeing candidates do whatever it takes to win your vote and how the media chooses

to cover certain stories, if at all, can completely shape your perspective of those candidates. But our sponsor, Ground News, is an awesome resource at a time like this with their vantage plan. I get access to what's called their blind spot feed that shows me stories that can be easily missed. For instance, I'm looking here at Ground News's summary about Trump distancing himself from Project 2025 amid its rising controversy, something we've been talking about. Ground News provides a great summary of the situation based on over 100 articles that Ground News found reporting on it. And Ground News shows me that almost no conservative news outlets are covering the story.

Not a surprise. Ground News shows us that the right wing outlets only report on how Trump is denying involvement with the project, while the center and left outlets are actually giving context on Trump's connections to the movement of Project 2025. Every story comes with this visual breakdown of the political biases and ownership of the The David Pakman Show David Pakman dot com. to other companies, the FBI and NSA, even buy this data in bulk to monitor Americans without a warrant. These data set lists are also where scammers and spammers get your information to send, call, text and email you. But you can stop them. Our sponsor, Incogni, sends data removal requests to data brokers who are legally required to comply. If any information

stays online, Incogni will follow up and make sure that it's removed and they keep you updated every step of the way. So you will know when your data has been removed, saves you hundreds of hours of work. Almost no one could do this on their own. If you have any other responsibilities in your life, I use Incogni myself and what they're able to accomplish and quickly is impressive. Go to Incogni dot com slash Pacman and use the code Pacman for 60 percent off. That's I.N.C.O.G.N.I. dot com slash Pacman for a huge 60 percent discount. The link is in the podcast notes. Let's take a deeper dive into how Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has completely

upended this race. It's now been almost two weeks since Joe Biden dropped out, endorsed Kamala Harris, who secured enough delegate endorsements to become the presumptive nominee, also raising record amounts of money, 200 million dollars in the first week of her campaign. Importantly, two thirds of which came from first time donors, meaning people who were not previously donors to Joe Biden. Harris also raised 81 million dollars the day after Joe Biden announced his decision. That's the highest 24 hour fundraising haul of any presidential candidate in history. And in a sense, Kamala Harris has revitalized the Democratic Party. The momentum behind Harris is real.

And it's a real contrast to Joe Biden, who two thirds of Democrats wanted to see drop out of the race. But the question is, can Kamala Harris maintain her momentum? And maybe more importantly, can she defeat Donald Trump in November? So far, the answer is not totally clear. Let's start with how Joe Biden was polling against Trump prior to exiting the race. Then we'll look at Kamala's early polling. According to the RealClearPolitics average, as of July 16th, Biden was losing every critical swing state that delivered him victory in 2020, losing Arizona by

five point eight, losing Georgia by three point eight, losing Wisconsin by two point nine, losing Michigan by two point one, losing Nevada by five percent, losing Pennsylvania by three point eight. Given that the Electoral College exists, we have to remember that swing state polling is a really important indicator of who's likely to win the election in November in every swing state where Biden was losing to Trump. The same polling shows down ballot Senate candidates defeating their MAGA opponents by substantial margins. This includes Ruben Gallego, Jackie Rosen, Tammy Baldwin.

When I reported on this in an editorial, many in the audience were upset with me saying the polls are all wrong and Biden is actually ahead. But apparently the polling was convincing enough to Biden himself, because as Politico reports on the eve of his decision to exit the race, Joe Biden's aides showed him internal polling, which showed his lead collapsing in the swing states also in New Mexico and Virginia. So where does this leave Kamala Harris today? Well, the polling on Kamala versus Trump is limited.

Her campaign just started, but there are some early indicators that we can look at. Remember that Kamala's fundraising has been incredible, literally record breaking, and that serves as an important proxy to enthusiasm. But before dropping out of the race, Joe Biden's approval was one of the lowest of his presidency at 38 percent, according to 538. As of July 30th, Kamala's approval rating is not that much higher than Biden's at just thirty nine point six. But in a morning consult poll conducted more recently, Kamala Harris has 50 percent favorability. That's much better at this point in her campaign. Kamala's fundraising may be a stronger barometer of her favorability than what five thirty eight or morning consults say. But this is

still subject to change. But what about the swing states we reviewed earlier? The reason swing state polling matters is a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College, which often depends on just a handful of critical swing states. Now, the swing state polling looks much better for Kamala Harris than it did for Joe Biden. According to the Real Clear Politics Average, as of July 28th, Kamala Harris than it did for Joe Biden. According to the RealClearPolitics average, as of July 28th, Kamala Harris has gained ground in all of the swing states where Biden was losing to Trump. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by about four, down from about six. In Georgia, Trump is ahead by three point six instead of three point eight. In Wisconsin, Trump is ahead by just zero point two percent down from almost three percent in Michigan.

Kamala Harris is now leading by two where Trump led Biden by two in Nevada. Trump's ahead by four down from five. And in Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead by two point seven down from three point eight. Some of the polls included in these real clear politics averages were actually conducted prior to Joe Biden dropping out. So if anything, these are conservative estimates of where Kamala currently stands in this matchup against Donald Trump. Now additionally, you can find more recent individual polls that are more optimistic

for Harris. We've talked about some of them, according to a Bloomberg Morning Consult poll done from July 24 to 28. Kamala is leading Trump in Michigan by 11 and leading by two in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump is ahead of Harris by four in Pennsylvania and two in North Carolina. And Georgia is a toss up. We also have polling from Emerson conducted between July 22nd and 23rd, which finds Trump is still ahead in Arizona by five ahead in Georgia by two, Michigan by one and Pennsylvania by two with Wisconsin as a toss up. So the takeaway is Kamala Harris's campaign has only just started and the numbers show

at minimum Harris is competitive and has the potential to gain even more ground after the DNC and after debates, if there are any, if Trump agrees to debate her. So let's now talk about the specific path to victory for Kamala Harris. There are actually a few paths electorally which could deliver Kamala Harris the 270 electoral votes she needs to become president. The first and most likely path would be to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. We're putting up the map of what that would look like if Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but loses Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. It's a razor thin margin, but she would win the presidency and defeat Donald Trump.

Now there's a second path to victory, which is called the Sun Belt Path, where Kamala wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Here's what the map would look like in that circumstance. And based on what we're seeing in the polling today, it's unlikely that Kamala will lose all three states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But the point is, even if she does, there is still a path to the presidency for her. Now, a third path for Kamala Harris is winning Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina,

but losing Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Here's the map in that scenario. And then a very interesting scenario that could come up if Kamala wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but loses Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and the Omaha district in Nebraska is a 269 269 tie. Now, this is not a good scenario for Kamala Harris, because in this scenario, there would be a contingent election in the House where Trump almost certainly wins because Republicans almost always have more House delegations. That makes it a scary scenario and it just reinforces the importance of winning that

Omaha district in Nebraska. Here's what the map would look like in those circumstances. So the main takeaway here is that Kamala Harris has multiple paths to victory, whereas based on what the polling told us about President Biden, he needed to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to get a second term because he seemed so far behind in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. So there are also other early indicators that Kamala Harris is a formidable opponent to Donald Trump.

There's a Fox News poll conducted July 22nd to 24th, which finds that Kamala Harris's approval rating has surpassed Trump's in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. That's a good sign. According to ABC News Ipsos polling, Democrats are now more enthusiastic about Kamala Harris than Republicans currently are about Trump. You might recall that previously Republicans were more excited about Trump than Democrats were about Biden. That's an optimistic change. And then there's a CNN survey that shows Harris with a four point lead over Trump among registered voters 18 to 34.

That's an 11 point improvement compared to Joe Biden. There's also an Axios poll finding that Kamala Harris is more popular with voters 18 to 34 than Biden was and that they are even more likely to vote for her. So these are promising signs for Kamala Harris. But even though she seems to have the momentum, it's very much unclear who's going to win. Trump could very well win a second term. This will almost certainly be a close race. We should not get complacent. Even Kamala herself has acknowledged she's the

underdog in this race. And that's probably true. Even if the polling showed Kamala Harris winning every single swing state by a wide margin, which it does not. It does not show that. But even if it did, we should still behave as if Kamala Harris were behind and we should be campaigning and acting accordingly. It's great that the data suggests Harris has improved relations with that 18 to 34 demographic. But the Harris campaign should not take those votes for granted, especially when it comes to policy. Kamala Harris should run on at least two to three bold, popular, progressive policies and viciously go after Donald Trump.

Her rhetoric on Trump has been very strong. She's opened speeches and rallies saying she's seen Donald Trump's type because she spent so long prosecuting criminals and fraudsters and sexual predators. The contrast between the prosecutor and the convicted felon is a striking contrast. And it also neutralizes the Republican attack on Democrats as being soft on crime, which Republicans love to play up. Trump represents the threat to democracy and the Harris campaign needs to offer something for people to vote for, not just vote against

Trump. And so far, Kamala Harris, as of this moment, does not have any policies listed on her Web site. But in listening to her speeches and rallies, it's clear she will make reproductive freedom a central campaign issue. That's good, but it should be expanded. The policy discussion should go beyond that. Talk about legislation that she co-sponsored as a senator. For example, Harris co-sponsored Bernie Sanders free college legislation. Harris co-sponsored the Green New Deal legislation with AOC. And as a presidential candidate in 2020, she pitched this 10 trillion dollar climate plan whose public and private investments would have dwarfed the one point six trillion dollar estimated cost of Biden's major climate, energy, infrastructure and tech legislation. As a senator, Harris proposed sweeping tax cuts for the middle class through the Lift

Act, which would have provided an annual tax credit of up to three thousand dollars per person or six thousand dollars per couple for lower and middle income workers, on top of any benefits they already receive. So these are just a few ideas that could appeal to progressives. We should not underestimate Trump. He can absolutely win a second term and we should do everything we can to prevent that from happening. But we also shouldn't underestimate Kamala Harris.

She can absolutely win this as well. When she first ran for president in 2020, polling for her peaked at 15 percent after the first primary debate, which was impressive for a relatively less known politician in the same race as established figures like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. But you might recall that her polling slipped when she went moderate, when she dropped her support for Medicare for all, when she dropped the other flagship progressive policies. So if her 2020 campaign is an indication of how she can win 2024, she should position herself to the left of Joe Biden, but to the right of Bernie Sanders. This is not saying what are my politics. This is saying strategically what positioning makes the most sense.

Now there are still three months to go until the election. That's a very long time in politics. A lot will happen between now and then. Kamala's running mate, the DNC may be debating Trump. All of these are opportunities for Kamala Harris to improve swing state polling even more. The attacks on Kamala from Republicans so far have fallen pretty flat. They've tried attacking her for her laugh, laugh, laugh

in Kamala, the cackle. It hasn't really worked in Trump's favor. It's really only highlighted that Trump rarely laughs and doesn't seem to understand humor. If anything, it's human humanized Kamala Harris. They've tried attacking Kamala Harris's handling of the border, probably more effective than making fun of her laugh, but also weak in light of the fact that Trump blocked the Biden administration and Congress from passing a bipartisan border bill, which would have restored remain in Mexico and much of what Trump advocates for. So based on everything we've seen so far, it looks like making Kamala Harris the nominee rather than Joe Biden has been the right call.

We don't have all of the information, including November's results, but polling, fundraising, the implosion of Trump's attacks on the Democrat presumptive Democratic nominee. All of these are positively pointing signs. Now what we need to do is vote, donate if we can phone bank if we can and see what happens in November. Staying healthy is all about sustainable habits, something you'll actually stick to, which is why I've been using AG one in the morning for years now. It's just so much simpler than messing with a bunch of different vitamin pills and products. And with just a single scoop of AG one, I get the vitamins, minerals and probiotics I want.

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double the healthy bacteria in the gut. It's easy and satisfying to start your journey with age one. Try age one and get a free one year supply of vitamin D three K two plus five free age one travel packs with your first subscription order at drink age one dot com slash pacman. Well, after his disastrous appearance with the National Association of Black Journalists, Donald Trump showed up at a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, bloated, swollen, orange, slurring and visibly disoriented and silenced the crowd. There were you could hear a pin drop during most of this rally as he ranted, raved and suffered a bunch of nuclear glitches. And this is a very rapid decline that we are seeing. Here is Donald Trump with his new line about how Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer has become

a Palestinian member of Hamas. Silent. The crowd is silent. He's losing them. Follow the line. Chuck Schumer refused to shake the Israeli prime minister's hand. Chuck Schumer has become a Palestinian. Yes.

Can you believe it's become a proud member of Hamas? Nancy Pelosi likewise denounced the speech in shameful terms, completely and totally deranged. And it's gotten so I hate to use the term weird, but it's gotten so weird that even his crowd is like, this is some weird you know what. Now, there was a moment when Trump's crowd finally perked up, which is when Trump started pushing the transphobia. On day one, I will sign a new executive order to cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, transgender and Saturday and other inappropriate racial, sexual or

political content that fires them up onto the lives of our children. And I will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate or a mask mandate. As I've said before, every public school has vaccine requirements. And this just means Trump will stop funding public education, which, by the way, many Republicans want to do. Trump issuing some of the usual threats that he issued about Joe Biden's forthcoming presidency in 2020. Now about Kamala Harris. The country is over if we have a president, Kamala Harris, worse than Biden. And he's gone. He's shot. But if she becomes your president, our country is finished. I'll tell you. And Pennsylvania, your beautiful Commonwealth. It's always good when you remember it's Commonwealth.

He would call it a state offer. Remember when Biden used I used to love this guy because you were on pins and needles watching him speak. You know, when's he going to blow it? And it would always happen. I think worse than Biden. None of this is sounding like Trump is particularly coherent for a guy who's focusing only on on Joe Biden.

And then at another point in the speech, Trump speaking to a completely silent crowd talking about the cognitive stuff and saying, hey, you know what, they're going after me for talking about Hannibal Lecter. That's not really a problem. And the crowd is weirded out, weirded out as a step above. Right. This is oh, they go crazy when they want to try and say he's cognitively impaired. You know, I stand up here for two hours and I speak without a mistake. But when I say Hannibal Lecter,

they say, why does he keep mentioning it? Because Hannibal Lecter was a serious psycho, right? He was the silence of the lands. Dr. Hannibal Lecter, he'd like to have you for dinner. See the man with the wall. Stand up. Look at this guy. He's here so much. He's great. He's great.

I'm guessing Trump's pointing to Brick Suit guy who we've interviewed. That's my guess here. He's he's a Trump voter. I don't think we have to worry about him, do we? He's a Trump voter all the way. But Hannibal Lecter would like to have you for dinner. All right. So not normal. Not normal at all. Trump voter all the way. But Hannibal Lecter would like to have you for dinner. All right. So not normal, not normal at all. Trump also talking about Kamala Harris being beautiful or her name being beautiful. It just is degenerating into stream of consciousness nonsense. I can't believe I'm doing, you know, the weird thing.

I mean, two weeks ago, I was talking about Biden. I didn't even know her name. Nobody did. Kamala. Hello. Beautiful. I didn't even know her name. Kamala. Oh, I guess he's saying someone in the audience is beautiful. I don't know. It's all very much jumping from one thing to another. At another moment during the speech, Trump pulls out these lurid anecdotes involving migrant crimes that he likes to hold up as evidence of something. And the crowd really isn't into it. I don't know how else to say it. They're just kind of like bored by the whole. Every single day you read about one of these horrible monsters from parts unknown who raped a young girl, killed her, cut them up, uses knives, not guns because it's a slower death. These are monsters and we have them. The audience seems bored to tears in our country. And we're going to deport them at a level like

nobody's ever seen. We're going to get them to go back to the country from which they claim that roused them. OK, we're going to start mass deportations of people. Some glitches and slurring from Trump talking about the nation's congregate. I don't know. Just Chicago and the whole nation's congregate crime rate crime rate. He meant the congregate was actually the crime rate. And then as the speech continued, just slurring more and more and more talking about mass and stuff like that and radical Islamic terrorists. She backs mass amnesty, mass amnesty and citizenship. Mask amnesty. If you are not wearing a mask, we will grant you amnesty for all illegal. She supports mandatory gun confiscation. Would anybody confiscation? Yeah. So Trump really struggling to get through this one. And finally, all of a sudden, Biden

isn't too old to be president. That's not the issue. And of course, the reason Trump is talking about this is that he's basically as old as Joe Biden. And now the contrast is Trump and fifty nine year old Kamala Harris. Trump now seems like the old guy. Trump now will be the oldest presidential nominee in American history. So Trump's new line has to be the issue is not that Biden is old. You know, 81 is not old.

I have friends that are ninety 95 that are still Bernie Marcus, founder of Home Depot, 95 years old, still sharp, still sharp. I spoke to him the other day. I said, I think you're smarter now than you were 30 years ago. I don't know what's going on. I said, what's going on? It's working. Every 81 is not all. And but he's different. He's a he's a bad 81. He's a bad 81. There you go. So this is very different than what Trump said two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, Biden was too old.

Maga World was saying Biden simply too old. Trump at two and a half years younger is the right age now compared to fifty nine year old Kamala Harris, who has the energy, who has the speaking ability, who has extraordinary energy at rallies, who is just dumping in gobs of money and fundraising. Now all of a sudden, 81 is fine as long as you're sharp. And by the way, I'm seventy nine or seventy eight. How old, however, old Trump is. And I'm very sharp as well.

The problem is just Biden's sharpness, a very different story when he now officially is the oldest presidential nominee in American history. Here's my question for you. Do you expect this to continue declining as we get closer and closer to November? Or do you believe that this is about as bad as it's going to get? Let me know. Info at David Pakman dot com. Make sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel. It's free. get. Let me know. Info at David Pakman dot com. Make sure you're subscribed

to the YouTube channel. It's free. Just hit the subscribe button. We're pushing to two point five million subscribers. We went from two point two to two point three million yesterday. Can you believe what's happening? Let's get to the two point five million. And we have a fantastic bonus show for you today. We are going to dove deep into why the weird allegation about Trump and Vance is working. Why is it working? We will talk about Twitter suspending the white dudes for Harris account after that major fundraiser. And we will also talk about Illinois banning companies from forcing workers to listen to anti-union talk. I'll see you next time.