The David Pakman Show - 9/23/24: Kamala takes RECORD lead, Trump chickens out of debate

Episode Date: September 23, 2024

-- On the Show: -- Allan Lichtman, political historian, author, and professor at American University, joins David to discuss his final 2024 election prediction, that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump and become the next President of the United States -- Kamala Harris yet again takes her largest lead yet against Donald Trump in national polling -- A terrified Donald Trump bails on debating Kamala Harris a second time after the disastrous first debate -- Tim Walz absolutely crushes the MAGA worldview during a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania -- Donald Trump's rally in Wilmington, North Carolina, does not go well, with countless supporters seen leaving early as Trump tells countless lies -- Supposed supporters of Donald Trump leave his North Carolina rally in droves, confirming what Kamala Harris said during the recent debate -- During a softball interview with Fox News' Brian Kilmeade, Donald Trump appears confused and disoriented, claiming to have purchased a hamburger with Bitcoin -- Brian Glenn, the boyfriend of radical Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, suggests intimidating non-white voters at polling places -- On the Bonus Show: Trump says he won't run in 2028 if he loses, almost all of Mark Robinson's campaign staff quits after trans porn fiasco, Trump allies push to change Nebraska's Electoral College law, much more... 🍽️ CookUnity: Get 50% OFF your 1st week with code PAKMAN at https://cookunity.com/pakman 💪 Athletic Greens is offering FREE year-supply of Vitamin D at https://athleticgreens.com/pakman 🛌 Helix Sleep: Get up to 20% OFF + 2 free pillows at https://helixsleep.com/pakman 🩺 Wild Health: Get 20% OFF your membership at https://wildhealth.com/pakman ☕ Beam melatonin hot cocoa: Use code PAKMAN for up to 40% OFF at https://shopbeam.com/pakman  💻 Get Private Internet Access for 83% OFF + 4 months free at https://www.piavpn.com/David 👕 Sponsored by Printful: Build and grow your business at https://davidpakman.com/printful -- Become a Member: https://www.davidpakman.com/membership -- Become a Patron: https://www.patreon.com/davidpakmanshow -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow -- Pakman Discord: https://www.davidpakman.com/discord -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow -- Leave a Voicemail: (219)-2DAVIDP

Speaker 1 Welcome, everybody. We start the new week with a new record lead in national polling for the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Donald Trump says he will not be debating again. And why would he? The last debate was an absolute disaster for him. We are going to look at competing rallies, Tim Walz and Donald Trump. We're going to look at overt planned intimidation tactics at the polls based on the race of the voters. It's been a crazy weekend and it's great to see everybody. So let me frame up for you where we are nationally and where we are as far as some critical battleground states. Now, just five weeks, essentially. Wait, five or so. I just never remember. Is it is it five, one, two. Three, four, five, six. OK,

six weeks and a day out from this presidential election. Kamala Harris today has a bigger national lead than she has had at any point during this campaign of two point two percentage points nationally. And critically, she is closing in on 50 percent support. She is currently at forty nine point four. If you take a look at recent polling, you find just a couple of outliers that say Donald Trump has a lead. Yes, we have a Rasmussen poll, Rasmussen known to lean right.

Going further back, we have an Atlas Intel poll which says Trump plus three. But other than that, all serious polling, NBC News, Kamala plus five, CBS News, Kamala plus four, Fox News, et cetera. Almost all have Kamala Harris leading at the at the largest. It's plus six, according to Morning Consult. And then we have a couple of polls that are a tie. The New York Times, Siena poll and a Harvard Harris poll. What this tells us is something we probably didn't need polling to know, which is that regardless of who becomes president by getting 270 electoral votes, the winner of the popular vote will almost certainly be Kamala Harris. This doesn't require sort of incredible

intuitive abilities to suss out because it's been for now a while the case that the Democratic candidate tends to win the popular vote even when they do not win the Electoral College. So that gets us to, well, how are things looking in those critical battleground states in Arizona? Trump has now built a lead. We have to acknowledge where we are and where we are is that while the national numbers continue to improve for Kamala Harris, Arizona, a state won by Joe Biden in 2020, is now all red as far as recent polling in the sense of Trump winning. The New York Times Siena poll has Trump plus five. Now, I think it's an important caveat to mention.

We take all of the information and then try to synthesize it together. Just as one data point, there have been six to eight months now of the New York Times Siena polls being very much favorable to Donald Trump in those battleground states. Whether we believe Trump is winning Arizona by five. Well, on average, he's winning by two point two. So Arizona would be a change from Biden to Trump if these results were to hold. Importantly, I I'm just the messenger. OK, I'm giving you the good news nationally and I'm giving you the not so good news at the state level in Georgia, a state also won by Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump has built a lead there and it is red as far as the eye can see a couple

of tide polls, but mostly every poll in Georgia currently being led by Donald Trump. So what would this do to the electoral race? Well, up on the screen, I have the 2020 map, the 2020 map. If we take Arizona and flip it red and if we take Georgia and flip it red, it still is a win for the Democratic candidate if all else remains as it was in 2020. But it makes it very, very dangerous. Again, going by the polling right now, a scenario that is possible is Kamala Harris wins the national popular vote by two. That's what Hillary Clinton did in 2016. But two states flip to Trump, those states being Arizona and Georgia. If that's the case, if Trump gets Pennsylvania, he becomes president of the United States. If Kamala Harris can keep Pennsylvania, but Michigan goes to Trump, he becomes president of the United States.

Or if Wisconsin goes to Trump, he becomes president of the United States. Nevada going to Trump in this scenario would not make him president of the United States. But on the bonus show today, we are going to talk about actions that Republicans are taking in Nebraska, Nebraska. Yes. Where if they want to change how electoral votes are counted in Nebraska, you could end up in a situation where if Republicans get their way, which is that Nebraska goes winner take all, that would give Trump one more electoral vote. And that would give us if Trump flips Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and they get that change in Nebraska, that would give us the elusive 269 to 269 tie. All right. I think we've done enough of the sort of granular stuff. What's the takeaway?

The takeaway is that we now have many examples in American presidential election history. We have the year 2000. We have the year 2016 where the Democratic candidate wins the popular vote. And yet the Republican still becomes president. That's a plausible scenario. Now, I know that there is a more optimistic scenario. There are people talking about a common landslide there. Just to go back to our map, there are people talking about Kamala Harris holds Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and maybe even wins North Carolina. And then, oh boy, what a scenario we have. Yes, that's a possible scenario.

But we have an asymmetrical risk scenario here where it would be so disastrous for Trump to become president that we have to guard against what is a plausible scenario, a win in the popular vote for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump still becoming president of the United States. If you want a sign of Trump running scared. Well, I have one and I want to talk about that next. Donald Trump is absolutely terrified of debating Kamala Harris again, and he is officially chickening out of a second presidential debate. BBC reports Trump rejects second TV debate as too late. It's just too late now to debate, says Donald Trump.

Former U.S. President Trump has said he will not take part in a second televised debate. Kamala Harris accepted an invitation for October 23rd on CNN. Trump told a rally it was too late because voting has already started. Now, the reality is that at this point and even by then, given that some of these states are going to be decided by such small margins, if you thought it was to your advantage to debate, if you thought it was to your advantage to debate, you would do it. You would do it. Now, here is Donald Trump explaining it's just too late to do it at this point in time. This is at a rally over the weekend. Too late. Voting has already started. She's had her chance to do it with Fox.

Fox invited us on and I waited and waited and they turned it down. So I mean, so there it is. Trump saying it's just too late. Now, on the other hand, Kamala Harris is saying there's more to discuss. Let's do this thing. Why not? OK. And of course, Kamala Harris, difficult to hear over the din of I don't know if that was the helicopter or the airplane or what. It was difficult to hear her for sure. But saying there is more to discuss. Join me on the debate stage. So what's going on here is very obvious. MAGA and Trump have tried to put together a neat little storyline in which the reason they aren't going to debate is because Trump won the first debate. Kamala Harris is scared. Trump using a boxing analogy saying,

you know, when you get knocked out, you immediately pop up and you go, I want a rematch. And that's what Kamala Harris wants, because she knows she lost. And also, it's too late to debate. Now, of course, it's not too late to debate. It would be absolutely a wonderful thing if you expect to do well to reach voters once again, even if it is in the second half of October. But people around Trump know that he did not win that debate publicly. They will say, oh, it was great. Trump saying it was the strongest debate ever in a rally over the weekend. We'll look at later. They're insisting on all of these points about how great it was for Trump, but they know it wasn't good. And there's a reason

that the rallies are being limited. People who go to Trump's rallies are leaving in droves. Forget about the fact that they're not even able to get the crowds that Kamala Harris can get. Not that the crowds matter other than to Trump. But if you're Trump and the crowds matter and you see that Kamala Harris has bigger crowds, Tim Walz even having bigger crowds, the VP, you are not going to Now, I would love to see another debate. I don't really know that it would be dispositive at this point because so many people did see the disaster. That was Trump's first debate. And indeed, Kamala Harris went into that debate leading nationally by one point one. She's now leading by two point two. So the debate effectively doubled her lead. Not a good idea for Donald Trump to go back in. But let's just acknowledge he's scared. He didn't win. He doesn't see and his advisers don't see any way that he could win a second debate.

In other words, what could Trump do differently in the second debate? Could he completely restructure his personality such that he wouldn't be triggered and take every single bit of bait that Kamala Harris drops for him? No, he's not going to become a new person between now and October 23rd. So why would you put him in that situation again to mess up so disastrously and potentially turn off even more undecided voters to the extent that they remain and how you're undecided at this point? As I've said, I don't know. So it does seem like the right decision for Trump not to debate. But let's not pretend it's because

he won. Let's not pretend it's because there's no time. It's because he lost the debate and another debate would only hurt him. Make sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel, whether they do or don't debate. We will have coverage of the vice presidential debate for you live and we will be here with you through and beyond the election. So help us on the push to three million YouTube subscribers and we will be back right after this short break. Our sponsor, Cook Unity, is the number one meal delivery service in the United States, and it's really easy to understand why Cook unity stands out from the other meal subscription services by offering chef crafted restaurant quality dishes by chefs you've actually heard of.

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Allentown, Pennsylvania, with vice presidential running mate Governor Tim Walz and Wilmington, North Carolina, with the failed former President Donald Trump. One of the most notable differences between the two rallies was the positive vision that was elucidated by Tim Walz in Allentown, Pennsylvania, in contrast to the dystopian and apocalyptic vision outlined by Donald Trump in Wilmington, North Carolina. People didn't leave Tim Walz's rally. Magapatamians were leaving in droves from Donald Trump's rally. We've got it on video and we will look at that. Another sign of the level of engagement that we're seeing with Harris Walz at the rallies. So let's start with Tim Walz and Tim Walz pointing out that there is a real problem

on the Republican Party in terms of who the political alliances lie with and alluding to the I'm a black Nazi guy, Mark Robinson, Trump endorsed candidate for Republican governor of North Carolina. Tim Walz is very good at this. That iron from the northern Minnesota iron range fueled the steel mills here right in the Lehigh Valley. Together, it was our people that built the tanks that won World War II and freed the world from Nazi oppression. And I don't know if you noticed that Nazi tyranny. We got folks running as Republicans for governor that are proud to refer themselves as Nazis. Let's not pretend that there's a gradual difference between the folks that are running here, that they're running together. There's another theme that is very prevalent during these Tim Walz events, and it's that

he and Kamala Harris also to a degree. But Tim Walz is excellent at it. He continues to upend the narrative that if you care about freedom and liberty and self-determination, you would vote for Trump and for Republicans. He is doing a great job of showing it's it's Harris walls. It's the Democratic Party in twenty twenty four that are the purveyors of freedom of all kinds is about freedom to live the life you want to, to live with dignity, whether it's being in retirement, starting your own businesses and to choose the life you want to live, not

the government. Now, I see some of you. I see some of the older folks here can actually remember. And it's like telling the young people there was a time when Republicans talked about freedom, they actually meant it. In the long ago time, it feels like. Because right now, when they talk about freedom, the freedom of government to be able to invade your bedroom. The freedom of government to invade your exam room. The freedom of government to invade your school libraries and take. Look, they spend a lot of damn time trying to ban books.

We spend our time in Minnesota banning hunger by giving free meals to our kids. Two things. And by the way, this this we're bouncing between he did two Pennsylvania events. He did Allentown, Pennsylvania and Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. This one's in Bethlehem. What I love about Tim Walz is that he appeals to the populist instincts without simply jumping into the populist rhetoric. It's very much a policy based. Listen, we're not going to go into libraries and start banning books. We're going to go into the school lunch rooms and making sure that there aren't any kids going hungry by doing free school lunch. There is an appeal to those who have fallen for the both left and right wing populist

rhetoric over the last eight to 10 years. But without falling into that rhetoric and being much more specific about policy, which I absolutely love. I think it's it's fantastic on the economy. Tim Walz pointing out that J.D. Vance during an event this week talked about how bad it was that interest rates were reduced. The only way in which it's bad is politically for Trump, Vance and Walls pointing that out. We saw. We saw Senator Vance lead an audience when he said, well, they reduced interest rates this week. How terrible is that?

And he got the crowd booing who boos for lower interest rates. Venture capitalists, apparently. This is this is really good stuff. Now, of course, I will be the first to acknowledge that objectively, it's not always true that lower interest rates are, quote, better. But the Fed and its 12 regional chairpeople evaluated the state of the economy and said this would be an appropriate time to lower rates. Lower interest rates will help those who have 401ks as lower rates on average help the

stock market. Lower interest rates will lower the rate of mortgages, which will make the home purchase that you may have been waiting to do less expensive, although in some markets lower interest rates can push prices up. So you have to always it's a balance. It's always a balancing act. But what Tim Walz is getting at is accurate, which is there is no evaluation of what the economy needs when Trump and Vance and Fox News bemoan the lowering of interest rates. It's simply a political calculation. It seems like it'll be bad for Trump Vance because the lower rates often push the stock market up because that's all they care about. How can they win? Tim Wall spoke about mass shootings as well.

Just be clear. Kamala Harris and I, we believe in the American people. We believe there's nothing we can't accomplish together. Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. Ah, we just can't figure it out. Well, then how the hell did every other country figure it out in the world? How did they all figure it out? Because I don't believe they love their children any more than us. I believe they love their children just like us. But they have figured out ways to strike a reasonable balance. Things like we did in Minnesota to have enhanced background checks and red flag laws to get

guns out of there to make a difference. Often considered that campaigning nationally on gun safety is not a good idea. But Tim Walz, as a hunter, seems to have found an effective way to do it. And then finally, Tim Walz wrapping up in Bethlehem, explaining that a win for Kamala Harris will be the breaking of a glass ceiling of never having having had a female president in the United States. Forty five days to bring joy back to our politics. Forty five days to say we are not satisfied with putting cracks in the glass ceiling. We're pushing President Harris through the glass. Speaker 1 So an excellent, engaging, rife with policy set of speeches by Tim Walz in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.

That was one thing we saw this weekend. Let's now compare and contrast it to what the Republican candidate was up to. Donald Trump delivered a rally speech in Wilmington, North Carolina, that went so horribly wrong so quickly. Supporters were seen scrambling for the exits. Yes, they really are leaving in droves. And we will get to that. Now, let me frame the context of this rally. The fact that Trump has to defend North Carolina at all this election is not a good sign for him. Not a good sign at all. It's also notable that despite Trump having endorsed Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson in North Carolina for governor,

Robinson was nowhere to be seen at this rally. And we know why. It's because this ridiculous scandal broke where we found out that Robinson had bragged about peeping into girls showers and locker rooms and being a black Nazi and liking transgender porn. And all of a sudden he's gone. Even though Trump's in North Carolina, there's no Mark Robinson to be seen. Donald Trump making delusional promises, as he often does, including that we're going to Mars before the end of Trump's term leading. But military, we're going to reach.

And it's my plan. I'll talk to Elon. Elon, get those rocket ships going because we want to reach Mars before the end of my term. We want to do it. And we want to have also great military protection. We will not reach Mars with people before January 20, 29. Now, you know, Trump can talk to Elon, as he says, or do whatever. But that's not going to happen now. If some advanced supply mission is

sent up there or some other kind of rover, Trump will say, that's what I meant. And we did it because of me. But we as humans are not going to be reaching Mars in twenty twenty nine by January of twenty twenty nine, really twenty twenty eight or earlier. Donald Trump had posted a bizarre truth social rant over the weekend about how women are poorer and all this different stuff. This was on truth. Truth central. He read the truth during the speech, and it didn't exactly incite to excite, rather, too many women. So let's talk about our great women. All right. These women have gone through a lot. They've gone through a lot. By the way, the reflection you are seeing is that Trump is now enclosed in a thick glass

box during these speeches. Women are poorer than they were four years ago. Who are less healthy than they were four years ago, are less safe on the streets than they were four years ago, are paying much higher prices for groceries and everything else than they were four years ago, are more stressed and depressed and unhappy than the. So are men, by the way, were four years ago and are less optimistic and confident in the future than they were just four years ago. I will fix all of that. Women, I will fix all of that and I will fix it. I will fix everything for women and only I can do it. The woman who might be president certainly won't me, the guy who knows nothing and has had endless affairs and has disrespected within in so many different ways.

I'll be the one to fix it for everybody. I don't think this is convincing anybody and muted applause from the crowd. And that's that that that's pretty charitable. Donald Trump once again turning his ire and that of the crowd to immigrants. And what a shame that is. Right. What a shame that is. And you see how bad it's getting when you look at what's going on with the migrants attacking villages and cities all throughout the Midwest in particular right now. But it's all over villages.

That's interesting. I mean, I didn't realize that villages were under siege in the United States. Donald Trump, when we talk about conservatism and going back to the way we used to do things for no real reason, right, like not not because it made sense to do things the way we did them 50 years ago, but they still want to be doing things the way we did them 50 years ago. But they still want to be doing things the way we did them 50 years ago. Speaker 1 But they do a lot of car manufacturing and they're going to be a big beneficiary of what we're doing. We're going to make cars the way we had it 40 or 50 years ago. We were dominant. We're going to be dominant again. They all want our market, but they don't want to make them here. They can all make them here. Speaker 1 Yes. And of course, as you can remember, 40 to 50 years ago, cars were far less efficient with regard to fuel and they were far less safe.

So why we would want to go back to that, I don't really know. As we discussed earlier, Donald Trump has also been saying at rallies that he's just not he doesn't have the time. It's too late to do more debates against Kamala Harris. She's done one debate. I've done two. It's too late to do another. I'd love to in many ways, but it's too late. The voting is cast.

The voters are out there immediately. Is everybody voting? Please get out and vote. Imagine cheering for your candidate, not debating, not explaining his ideas, not attempting to use language to communicate how he understands political issues, cheering for not seeing your candidate show that he is a good candidate. Donald Trump now with a an absolutely fascinating reversal on inflation saying, OK, fine, inflation is down, but because things are going poorly. Remember before inflation being up was a sign of things going poorly.

Now inflation being down is a sign of things going. And we will rapidly defeat inflation. So inflation is a misnomer because the inflation is now getting stabilized because the country is doing badly. That's the best. We will bring it down. And it actually is down because things are bad. But we're going to bring it down with things being good. Although the logic is completely backwards, Trump seems to be acknowledging maybe for the first time that that he's doing it, that you actually do want some inflation. Suddenly low inflation is bad, according to Trump.

I don't know. And then finally, or as we get to the end of Trump's speech here, Trump insisting that he really isn't weird. He's not he's not a weird guy. Trust him. Neither is J.D. That's why she picked this this character, this weird guy. You know, I said we're J.D. and I are not weird. We got a lot of problems.

So we're not weird. He is a weird dude, isn't it? So she got to meet him. He's a radical left lunatic. During the burning of Minnesota, they burned the whole state. Minneapolis was like a fire pit. That's why she picked it. Yeah. So that and then finally, Trump wrapping up the rally with the double handed jerking motions that he often does.

Yeah. Behind the glass, of course, it has a little bit less cachet. So listen, take your pick. You saw the vision of Tim Walz and you saw, I guess, the vision, but more the lack of vision and the focus on bizarre lies and apocalyptic visions of Donald Trump. This is what is at stake in November. And I can't wrap up this entire segment without mentioning the fact that Trump voters were indeed leaving in droves during the rally. Attendees were bailing on Donald Trump's rally in Wilmington, North Carolina, as early as 28 minutes into Trump's speech. They were starting

to leave. You see Trump's plane in the background. You hear Trump speaking and they're just leaving. As you can see, just a mass of people headed for the exits. Remember that Donald Trump said during his debate that Kamala Harris is lying, that nobody leaves early. Here's what Kamala Harris said about this during the debate. Instead of fixing a problem. And I'll tell you something, he's going to talk about immigration a lot tonight, even when it's not the subject that is being raised. And I'm going to actually do something really unusual. And I'm going to invite you to attend one of Donald Trump's rallies because it's a really interesting thing to watch.

You will see during the course of his rallies, he talks about fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter. He will talk about windmills cause cancer. And what you will also notice is that people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom. And I will tell you, the one thing you will not hear him talk about is you. You will not hear him talk about your needs, your dreams and your and your desires. And I'll tell you, I believe you deserve a president who actually puts you first. And I pledge to you that I will. Trump denied that anyone leaves early. And yet we see the people living, leaving early at every

rally. Now it's happening at every single rally. Now, I'm more interested in a different question, which is why would you go in the first place if after 28 minutes you bail in the sense that Trump's been giving versions of the same rally speech for years now. You know, there's new little details, Hannibal Lecter and Al Capone, sharks and windmills. And, you know, there's little tweaks, but it's basically a rotation of a couple of dozen stories. There's the, you know, the weightlifting stuff. Let me see if I have that here. Whoops. No, that's Alex Jones crying. I don't have the weightlifting noises, but you get the point. Why do they go in the first place if after 28 minutes they're so disgusted with what's there or so bored with what's there or they have to use the bathroom and they don't want to go to the porta potty?

I don't know the explanation, but why go in the first place? That's my question to you. Let me know. Info at David Pakman dot com. Are you having trouble sleeping or staying asleep? Sleep is one of the most important foundations of mental and physical health. And our sponsor beams formulation called Dream is a delicious nighttime hot cocoa drink with melatonin, clinically proven to help you fall asleep faster and stay asleep longer, melatonin can also help correct circadian rhythm disturbances, get your sleep schedule back on track, for example, in jet lag situations. Dream comes in great tasting flavors like mint chocolate chip, chocolate, peanut butter,

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we had you on relatively recently at the time President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee. There was a conversation that was being had about a possible replacement at the top of the ticket. You said Democrats would give up the incumbency and potentially the no contest key. So much has happened since then. We have a new Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris. You've issued a prediction that indeed you believe she will become the next president of the United States. First question, was it ultimately the right decision to replace President Biden on the ticket? It was ultimately the right decision to replace him the way they did.

As you know, I was very critical of what the Democrats were doing, first of all, for openly, right out in public, viciously trashing their sitting president. I didn't think that was necessary. I've never seen that. And I've studied politics from the founding to the present in the US. Second problem I saw for the Democrats was that they were not only going to push Biden out, but they were going to have a big party brawl, which would cost them both the incumbency key and the contest key, and no incumbent party since 1900 has ever won re-election when they lost both of those keys. But as it turned out, Democrats did the right thing. That is, they united behind Harris, which I didn't think they would do. I was quite surprised. They seem to have grown a spine and a

brain and avoided losing the contest key. That means they lost only one key with the pushing out of Biden. And it now does seem that the Harris nomination might have helped them with two other keys, the third party key, since voters don't have to choose anymore between two old white guys. I hate to say that being an old white guy myself, but it's true. And the social unrest key, since protests were directed against Biden, and he's no longer front and center, Harris is. So the Democrats avoided disaster and in other ways may have helped themselves. Which keys does Donald Trump currently have pointing in his favor? Well, it doesn't work that way. The way the keys work is keys for and against the White House party. The keys are based upon the proposition

that elections are primarily votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party. And the way it works, if six of the 13 keys go against the White House party, six and you're out, they're predicted losers. Otherwise, they're predicted winners. So the way. How many keys are turned against the White House party, Harris and the Democrats? And I apologize. You corrected me about the way I asked this last time we spoke as well. So let's talk. So the three keys that from the perspective of the White House are not in their favor. Yeah, there are actually four or three quite clear, obviously, incumbency since Biden is not running mandate key since the Democrats

lost U.S. House seats in 2022, even though they did better than expected. An incumbent charisma key, because whatever you may think of Harris, she's not yet a Franklin Roosevelt. And the fourth key that I turned against them, the most difficult, shakiest keys are, of course, the two foreign slash military failure and success keys, since wars are so unpredictable. But I did turn a fourth key, the foreign policy failure key. I think what's going on in the Middle East is a humanitarian worldwide disaster with no end in sight. I know we don't have boots on the ground there, but we are deeply invested. So that's four negative keys, still two keys short of predicting an incumbent party defeat, even if

the foreign policy success key. And I gave that to Biden and the administration. Remember, it's always measured against the incumbent administration, because it was Biden and Biden alone who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin from conquering Ukraine and then undermining American national security by threatening our NATO allies. But even if something went horribly wrong in Ukraine, that would still only be five keys down. Still a predicted Harris victory. In retrospect now, with the benefit of hindsight, going back to maybe the June 27th debate or

wherever we kind of want to think back to, do you believe that if Biden were still in the race, he would still have the clear path to victory you told us he had last time you were on? You know, there's an old Zen saying, unask the question. I don't deal in hypotheticals. And there's a simple reason. You never know what's going to happen if things change. You can't just pull one thing out and presume it won't have an effect on, you know, chaos theory says a butterfly flaps its wings in Calcutta, and there's a hurricane in Louisiana. Even minor changes can produce major effects. So we have no idea what the effect would have been if Biden had stayed in on

other keys. So I'm not going to speculate. I'm not hearing a confident. I'm not hearing a confident he absolutely would have won, though, is that you're you're not you're not saying that I'm not saying he would have won. I'm not saying you lost. I don't know because it hasn't happened. And I you know, if you follow any of my I have a live show every Tuesday and Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern at at Alan Lichtman YouTube. And if you ever listen to any of my live shows and I hope your audience will, you see, I'm asked hypotheticals all the time and I hope your audience will. You see, I'm asked hypotheticals all the time and I won't answer them. Speaker 1

So this is less of a hypothetical, but something I asked a little bit about last time you were on and that I've since received dozens of emails about. You told us in very clear terms, the model is a model in that you don't modify the model to account for what's going on that year. This is the whole point of how it works. You don't say, well, account for what's going on that year. This is the whole point of how it works. You don't say, well, here's something that's different. So we have to adjust the model in this way or in that way. Understanding that I've received dozens of emails from people who say what's happening in twenty twenty four is so different from any scenario we have ever had that this model cannot possibly account for a former president who lost and then was indicted and again became the nominee and an incumbent president who up

until the last minute was the believed nominee and then dropped out. You get the point, right? I can I can give you the long list and I will answer it. Please. And I will answer. Good. OK. Directly, please. First of all, every four years, some critic comes up to me and says this year is so different. You've got to change your keys. We have an African-American running. We have never had that before. That's so far out of the norm in America. We're just not ready to elect an African-American. We have a candidate on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women with almost 20 women accusing him of sexual assault. That is so far out of the norm. You've

got to change your keys. And of course, my answer is always, you can't change a model on the fly. That is a recipe for error, because it has to be based on a series of elections. If I had changed in 2008 or 2016, I would have been wrong. I predicted Obama in 2008, regardless of the fact that he was an African American, and Trump in 2016, regardless of all his baggage about sexually assaulting women. My second answer is the Keys are incredibly robust. They're based on history, but they go all the way back developmentally to 1860 when women didn't vote. African Americans were enslaved. We had no radio, no television, no automobiles, no airplanes. We were an agricultural society. So the Keys have survived enormous changes in our society, in our economy, in our politics, in our demography. That's another reason why I don't

change them in response to people saying, oh my God, we have something different. They've survived much bigger changes than anything we've seen. Final point. I am not so arrogant as to say the keys can never be wrong. They're based on history, of course. I'm not Speaker Mike Johnson who claims the Almighty talks to him. And patterns of history, as robust as they are, can be broken if something is unprecedented enough and cataclysmic enough. The problem is you never know beforehand. You can only know after that has happened. Even Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris doesn't get you to change the keys. Now I'm kidding about that.

But it hasn't done. Understandably. Here's a question that a number in the audience have asked. Sure. If you are so confident in the model as you seem to be, do you bet on the election results? Are you a betting man? I never bet on the election results because I don't want to jinx myself. Other people do. I never advise anyone to put money on election predictions, but I can't stop people. How are you confident that you can issue a final prediction with six weeks?

You did it actually more. I think it was more like with eight weeks left to given given the number of things that could happen in those last eight weeks. And I guess my follow up would be, is it that anything that could happen in those last eight weeks, and I guess my follow up would be, is it that anything that could happen in those eight weeks couldn't possibly change the fundamentals of the keys to answers? Again, one, this is actually one of my latest, not one of my earliest predictions. Sometimes the keys fall into place late like this year.

Sometimes they fall into place late, like this year. Sometimes they fall into place early. I called the very hard to call 2012 election, when a lot of the pundits right up to the last minute were picking Romney. I called Obama in 2010 because I could see all the keys falling in place. I then got out of the blue gratuitously a 30-page attack from guess who? Nate Silver saying, you can't predict this early. And of course, being a professor, I wrote a 30-page response, which boiled down to, yes, I can, because the keys tap into the structure of how elections really work. You can't, because you're basing it on ephemeral

polls. You can't until very late, and even then, you could be wrong. Eventually, it took years. Nate Silver came around to my point of view. I wrote him a very nice email saying, let's do a joint article showing how two forecasters using different methods came to the same answer, heard nothing, not even a polite review, not my favorite person. Second point, the biggest myth in American politics is the October surprise. I've made my predictions before then and never changed them. As I said, you know, probably the biggest October surprise we've had in recent years was the Access Hollywood tape. My goodness, you know, a lot of experts were writing Trump off right then and there,

including members of his own party. But I stuck to my prediction of a Trump in which you can imagine was not making me very popular in 90% plus democratic Washington, DC, where I teach at American University. So when you're dealing with the fundamentals, you don't change your prediction. And that's why very advisedly, I issued my prediction before the debate, which everybody said, oh, this is pivotal. This is make or break. I was very explicitly saying, no, the fundamentals say something else. All right. Professor Alan Lichtman with his final prediction.

If there's another new candidate between now and November, we'll have you back on for the next prediction. But I assume this will be the final one. Speaker 3 You know, the great Benjamin Disraeli, the prime minister of England, once said finality is not a word we use in politics. And the great late Gil de Radna, her character of Dana said, there's always something. So we're presuming the candidates won't change, but you never know. Thanks so much for, private Internet access. A VPN hides your IP address, allows you to make it look like your device is anywhere in the world. So this lets

you stream content on Netflix and Hulu and HBO Max, not normally available in your home country. For instance, the show Friends is not available on Netflix in the US. But when I change my IP address to the UK, I can watch Friends on Netflix and a ton of other awesome content I would The David Pakman Show David Pakman dot com slash David. The link is in the podcast notes. If you run a business or organization and want to get your brand out there or even just have your own DIY project, like maybe helping a political candidate spread their message, Printful is the perfect way to do it. Our sponsor Printful is the world's number one We'll be right back. So Printful can ship directly to your customers. Or if you're just getting started, Printful offers a free tool, quick stores to quickly and easily launch a store. Whether you're beginning a new venture, scaling up your existing brand, Printful will handle everything, production, packaging and

shipping. You can get your design printed or embroidered on just about anything, clothing, coffee mugs, magnets, even unusual ones like dog collars and puzzles. And it is election season. So if you want to help get the word out about your favorite candidate, Printful is the perfect place to do it. Get your political message printed on T-shirts, posters, flags, bumper stickers. The possibilities are endless. Get started at David Pakman dot com slash printful. The link is in the podcast notes. That's David Pakman dot com slash P.R.I.N.T. F.U.L. Before one of his rallies over the weekend, Donald Trump gave what was supposed to be an easy softball interview with Brian Kilmeade from Fox News.

It was meant to make him look really good and knowledgeable. Instead, a nearly neon orange Donald Trump glitching out very, very badly. And as usual, when the topic of Bitcoin comes up, Trump has no clue what it is or what's going on. He is trying to sell people hundred dollar coins. He's launching crypto currencies, but he doesn't understand a damn thing other than can I grift some money from my followers with this nonsense? So here is Brian Kilmeade asking about Bitcoin and Trump goes, yeah, you know, I bought a hamburger with Bitcoin or I guess it's hamburger.

If you are Donald Trump, really weird interview. I don't even get it. Do you understand what you bought hamburgers? Well, I did. I bought a hamburger with Bitcoin. This was the first purchase ever made, I guess, of a hamburger or something. And I guarantee you that Donald Trump has not made the first purchase of a hamburger or something with Bitcoin that there's just no way that that's the case. Look, I'm a believer in staying at the top. This is a hot thing. Rather than having giving it to China, like the stuff, you know, artificial intelligence, China is going crazy about it. They're also going crazy on Bitcoin and crypto cryptocurrency.

And I do understand it. I think it's going to be a very hot industry. It's funny because it's been around like 15 years. Trump's just hearing about it and he goes, someday this is going to be hot. OK, so that's number one. Number two, when Trump says, I believe in it and I want to stay on top of it, what he means is I've been told it might be useful to me in some way. And hilariously, I wouldn't completely rule out that at some point someone came to Trump and said, you know, if you had paid the hush money with Bitcoin, you might never have ended up in this mess and convicted of 34 felonies. To some degree, Trump may believe that Bitcoin might have made it so

that he's not currently a convicted felon. Maybe the most delusional part of this interview was where Donald Trump said he thinks his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris was the strongest debate he's ever had. Opponent issue. Well, I thought that she had a debate, which was interesting because she wasn't answering any questions. And I thought that she had a debate, which was interesting because she wasn't answering any questions and I thought it was a great debate for me. I thought it was one of my best debates that I've ever had. And some people disagreed, but I felt it was the strongest debate I ever had. I thought.

Speaker 1 Yeah. Now here's the question to you. Is Donald Trump lying because he has to save face and everybody's already told him, sir, it wasn't good. Is he lying when he says it's the best debate ever? Or is he so deluded and kept isolated from the real world that he has become convinced either by others or by himself, convincing his own beliefs that this was an excellent debate? I don't know the answer. If you said, David, you have to somehow see through to what Trump truly believes deep down. Does he believe that

the debate was great or does he know it was a flop and he's simply lying? I don't know. I don't know. But the debate in some sense seems to be going down as the moment that broke Trump because he's now terrified to get back on the debate stage with her. And then finally, Trump bringing up again that because of ABC News is handling of the debate, meaning they fact check them twice on obvious lies that they should be investigated. A Democratic pollster is calling for an investigation of ABC and the moderators. He wants the communications poll to see if they were talking to each other because of the fact check on you and none on them and the questions and topics. Do you join in those questions? Sure, I do. I think they should be investigated. And, you know, they have to get a license from the federal government.

There is Trump again with the license suggesting we may take that license away. So, you know, one of the funny things is the fact checks were of statements that you just must correct before the debate can go on. Now, they they are arguing on the right. We know there was bias because Trump was fact checked and Kamala Harris was not. I want you to just sit back and imagine for a moment that Kamala Harris had said during the debate, I won the 2016 election. Obviously, the moderators would have said it is not true that Vice President Harris won the 2016 election. Trump won it.

And Harris wasn't even a candidate. Hillary Clinton was the candidate. They obviously would have fact checked that it's not because of bias that only Trump was fact checked as to who won the 2020 election. It's because it's such a basic element of the frame of this entire conversation that it would be a disservice not to mention, oh, by the way, you weren't the winner. Biden was the winner. That's why he's president right now. So if you don't want to get fact checked, don't say things like I won an election that you actually did not win. That

is a softball interview gone completely and totally wrong. Marjorie Taylor Greene's boyfriend, Brian Glenn, does these kind of broadcasts before Trump rallies. He does them now on Real America's Voice. He used to be on right side broadcasting, but he left. He's now on Real America's Voice. He has an idea for November 5th. His idea is if you see individuals who look like they might be voting illegally and he uses every code to remind us that he's talking about nonwhite voters, get the police, do everything you can to intimidate them. Listen to Brian Glenn's idea. If you go to a polling center and you see busloads, van loads of people walking up to vote.

Now, remember, I'm sorry, I have to pause it. He's speaking in a code that you have to understand. These are dog whistles. The stories they've been telling for years is that brown immigrants from Latin America are brought in buses to illegally vote and mass at polling places. So when he talks about the bus loads, he's not talking about white grandmas. OK, you have to understand the code that he's using. Speaker 4 And you see busloads, van loads of people walking up to vote that clearly perhaps look like they could be. Let's just make sure people are checking IDs.

They clearly perhaps look like people who what? How do they look that way, Brian? What is it about them that suggests to you? Huh? Because if people are going in with zero ID and they're not a U.S. citizen, they shouldn't be allowed to vote, period. And of course, noncitizens aren't allowed to vote and there's no evidence that noncitizens are voting. So we need poll watchers. I can perhaps sound the alarm if they think that is going on so that maybe some election officials can double check on that.

So if we start to see all these caravan of people coming in, let's make sure they're all legal before we allow them to vote. And of course, there it is. Caravan, caravan, a direct reference to migrant caravans of brown Latin America's coming in from Mexico and points south. His idea is on the basis of the physical appearance of people by which he obviously means race. Point them out to election officials, point them out to police, target them for intimidation. And of course, all of this is made up. It's been investigated. There's no rash of noncitizens voting. They can't even register.

And if what you believe is that a noncitizen from Mexico is showing up and going, hey, I'm Chris Smith, I'm here to vote and that that's how they're stealing an election. I've got a bridge to sell you, because not only is it not happening, it would be a really stupid way to try to steal an election in the first place. We've got a fantastic bonus show for you today. Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson's campaign staff after the locker room peeping black Nazi trans porn scandal that he's facing, they've mostly quit.

He has almost no campaign staff left. Fascinating. Donald Trump says he won't run in twenty twenty eight if he loses. We will discuss that. And finally, Republicans are trying to change the law around electoral votes in Nebraska. There is a scenario where that change could lead to a 269 to 269 tie. We're going to talk about all of that and more on today's bonus show. The bonus show where you want to make money. Yes, sir.

He also makes money to fund themselves is bad. Help us make Alex Jones cry. Maga tears. Sign up for the bonus show at join Pacman dot com. I'll see you then. And I'll be back with a new show tomorrow as well.