The David Pakman Show - BONUS SHOW: Trump's Brazil tariffs, Secret Service suspended agents after assassination attempt, Mamdani leads polls

Episode Date: July 12, 2025

-- On the Bonus Show: Trump places 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro treatment, Secret Service suspended 6 agents after Trump assassination attempt, Zohran Mamdani leading NYC mayor poll, and much more... -- Become a Member: https://www.davidpakman.com/membership  Subscribe to our (FREE) Substack newsletter: https://davidpakman.substack.com/  Buy David's book: https://davidpakman.com/book 

Hey, everybody, David here. What you're about to hear is an episode of The Bonus Show. We do a bonus show every day for our members and for a limited time. We will release one of the week's bonus shows on Saturdays, exclusively for our audio podcast listeners. If you'd like to get access to all of the bonus shows, simply sign up at join Pacman dot com. Here is that bonus show episode.

Welcome to the bonus show. Donald Trump broke from his tariff letter format to tell the president of Brazil that he's going to put a 50 percent tariff on any and all Brazilian products sent to the US starting on August one. The reason this letter was different is that this one was not about rectifying trade imbalances. This one was about he doesn't like how the former Trump in Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been treated. He has suffered grave injustices.

It's a witch hunt. And he sort of made him out to be kind of like a martyr in a way and says, that's the reason why Brazil's getting a 50 percent tariff. So I know that on the one hand, Pat, it's like, well, he's sending everybody tariff letters. What's the difference? This is a whole other thing to start tariffing countries for political disagreements, essentially. Yeah, I'm not sure, honestly, how seriously we should take this, because on the one hand, it's clear that Trump should not be trying to interfere in the domestic politics of foreign

countries, especially when we know that he's just doing so because he views Bolsonaro as a political ally and he's trying to further his own agenda here and rally his supporters behind the move. So there's that on the one hand, but on the other hand, is this actually going to hold up? Is he going to stick to a 50% tariff on Brazil? My sense is that no, he's not. He's going to back off of it, especially once the ramifications become clear. We know that he's already gotten the taco moniker because he backs off of all of these tariff promises. So this may amount to nothing. The fact that he's trying to pressure the Brazilian government to drop the investigation obviously

is newsworthy, but I just don't think he's going to follow through with it. No, I don't think so. And I'm going to be really honest at this point. I'm increasingly of the mindset that he's not going to follow through on almost any of these tariffs. I think that there are going to be more reasonable tariffs on some countries when this is all said and done. But you at this point just have to look at the big picture, which is, yes, Trump's ego

is like the primary motivator in a lot of this. And he wants to seem tough. And he thinks putting tariffs on countries makes him tough. But he has seen when it really seems like the tariffs are happening, what happens to the stock market and the phone calls he starts getting from business owners, CEOs, billionaires, et cetera. And so I am increasingly if I'm just very frank, I think Trump at this point is playing the on again off again game to keep people on their toes, to get attention, to seem like he's in power,

but that slowly but surely he will either reach deals, frameworks or just indefinitely delay stuff. deals, frameworks or just indefinitely delay stuff. Well, what do you think about the taco moniker getting to Trump upsetting him to the point where maybe he actually will try to stick to some of these tariff promises? There are some on the left to say that we shouldn't be making fun of Trump by using that name because it's going to cause him to retaliate and actually stick to the tariff plans. Right. I wonder if that actually would influence him because he really is so petty. So even though a normal person wouldn't consider something like that, maybe that's something

Trump would actually think about. Well, listen, if the taco stuff runs the risk of getting Trump to do the tariffs, I don't want to do it because I think the tariffs are a disaster. That's the funny thing. We might. This is one of those situations where that like remember the whole these guys are weird thing and it started getting to him. There was no downside to that getting to him.

It just made him erratic. This time, the taco thing might get him to take an action that would be economically disastrous. So I think we need to tread carefully around his ego in this case. Yeah, that is an interesting one. It wasn't the other horrible things that could have possibly occurred with the full on trade war that prevented him from instituting the tariffs. It was just him being made fun of and slapped with a nickname.

So that's Trump for you at the end of the day. That's what he cares about, first and foremost. So we have now seen the results of the investigation into what happened almost a year ago in Butler, Pennsylvania, when Donald Trump had a bullet graze his ear. Secret Service has suspended six personnel with no pay and no benefits. That's where things landed. The penalties will range from 10 to 42 days of leave. These individuals were placed into restricted duty or roles with less operational responsibility

when they come back. They have put out a statement saying they still want to fix the root causes of the problem. They are not going to fire people to get out of this. They are going to focus on the root cause and deal with the root cause. It's the Secret Service's responsibility. At the end of the day, an operational failure took place. All discipline was done according to the federally mandated process. I have not read the 180 page report that was released by a house task force into what happened. They talk about preexisting leadership issues and a whole bunch of different stuff where people with no advanced planning experience were put in place of advanced planning. This relates to how was that rooftop from which the shooter shot not secured, as an

example. So, listen, I don't know. It's like nobody's really falling on their sword. How was that rooftop from which the shooter shot not secured, as an example? So listen, I don't know. It's like nobody's really falling on their sword. I guess they're saying they take responsibility. And I think what's difficult about this, Pat, is that there's so much politics and conspiracy wrapped around it that by the time you finally get a hundred and one hundred eighty page report, it just kind of feels like the people committed to a different interpretation of this event. On the one hand, Trump staged it. On the

other hand, the Secret Service staged it or in Biden staged it or something like that. They're not going to be satisfied with this. So it's one of these things that like it doesn't really make much noise or get much attention. Well, certainly the conspiracy theorists are not going to be satisfied with the penalties that these secret service agents got the idea that a former president and a soon to be president again was shot. And these secret service agents who dropped the ball are only getting these 10 to 42 day suspensions. They're going to think that there's something fishy when it comes to that. Like maybe the Biden administration was involved or deliberately looked the other way.

They were hoping that Trump would be assassinated. I think that these penalties aren't severe enough that Trump supporters would say, okay, they're actually taking this seriously or there's nothing to see here. But then again, even if they fired these Secret Service agents in question, even if they did a complete revamp, that wouldn't convince them either. No. So it's not going to be sufficient for them no matter what. Do you believe that?

Is there anything about the whole thing that strikes you as odd? Any detail about it whatsoever? Anything about the shooter, how the shooter got onto that rooftop, how it grazed Trump's ear, how Trump's ear seemed so healed so quickly? Like, is there anything about it that you think is odd? I think the strangest thing is that they didn't secure the perimeter enough and that they didn't include that building that the shooter was on in that perimeter because it clearly was so close to the stage, so close to where Trump was speaking. But I think what's often left out of this conversation is the fact that Trump at that point was not the current president of the United States. So

he didn't have the full detail that a current president gets. If the same thing happens to Trump while he was an incumbent president, I think that would be a lot more suspicious. But once you're talking about former presidents or people running for presidents, they're going to have a much more limited detail. So I think that explains away a lot of the questions that people have over this. It's just one of those things that people often forget about. But certainly there were mistakes made. I think there's no question about that. And certainly mistakes when it came to planning and communication and securing the area. But that doesn't mean that anything nefarious took place. All right. I want to dig into the New York City mayoral race. What's

going on there is very, very interesting. Now, to catch everybody up in the Democratic primary, which was held in June, Zoran Mamdani, who is a self-described socialist, one in ranked choice in round one, he had 43 percent of the vote in round two. He had 43 percent of the vote. And ultimately, in round three, it ended up Mamdani, 56 percent, and Andrew Cuomo, 43 percent. Now, as we've said before, the current mayor, Eric Adams, is opting to run but not as a Democrat as an independent.

So Eric Adams is going to be on the ballot in November. And then there's the possibility also that Andrew Cuomo is going to be on the ballot in November under a third party called the. Let me remind myself what it is. I actually do. What is the is it working families? Now I don't remember. I honestly don't remember either. There were a bunch of third parties that were floated around. The name of the third party is actually less relevant for our discussion today. There is new polling that says now looking at the general election polling. Mom Donnie is winning. It's Mom Donnie. Thirty five Cuomo, twenty five Curtis Lee, 14 and Adams, 11 with attorney Jim Walden at one percent.

Now, there's also 13 percent of respondents who simply aren't sure. Now, I don't want to like. So this is one of these things where I'm not a socialist personally. Right. So I am in the position both of recognizing the incredible accomplishment that it is for Mamdani to surge from behind from polling so low and ultimately winning this primary, doing it by talking to people about affordability and kitchen table issues. I'm being objective here in acknowledging what he did. And also, like, he's a socialist and I'm not. So like, I don't go rah rah rah about socialist policies because I'm a social Democrat and

I don't want to pretend like I'm hiding that. Is that fair, Pat? Like, am I being clear? Yeah, that is being clear. I think it's important, though, to compare where your policies lie compared to Zora and Mamdani's, but also compared to the other candidates in the fields. Like you may still be closer to Mamdani when it comes to policy than you are Cuomo and Adams, for example. From what I've heard, I'm probably right between Cuomo and Mamdani if in just in terms of like policy

on paper. But I haven't really looked that deeply into Cuomo's current platform. Right. I'm familiar with Cuomo as governor. I actually, you know, should inform myself more about that. But it's not like the NYC mayoral race is like the biggest thing on the show. But here's what I'm really interested in, Pat. This is one of the most strategically interesting situations because I have to assume that Adams

and Cuomo must have some sense that if one of them got out, it would help the other one that if Adams got out, most of his 11 probably goes to Cuomo. If Cuomo got out, most of his 25 probably goes to Adams. And further, and this is where it gets even trickier, Slewa, who's a right winger running with 14 percent. I think if he gets out, almost none of Slewa's support goes to Mom, Donnie. The point here is you have people who don't really like each other here in a position where if they agreed we're going to get at two of us are going to get out of the way of the other. They probably defeat Mom, Donnie, right?

I mean, Mom, Donnie's only got 35 percent support. And I don't know if egos are going to get in the way of that. And ego may lead to New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani. Yeah, that's absolutely true. After the primary, there were a lot of people talking about Mamdani's win in the general election as a foregone conclusion because obviously New York City is a left wing area. So typically whoever wins the Democratic primary is going to go on to win the general, but we could have a different circumstance here, especially if Cuomo does decide to run again. They could, well, they could split up the votes and that would allow

Mom Donnie to win, but maybe Cuomo does step aside, endorse Adams. And if you just count up the numbers, Cuomo's 25% plus Adams 11%, makes 36%. That's more support than Mom Donnie has. But also we have to take a look at that 13% of respondents who aren't sure at this point. Do you get the sense that the unsure candidates would be more likely to swing towards a centrist candidate than someone who describes themselves as a democratic socialist? Because my sense is that those folks tend to be more in the middle, more apolitical. So then they'd be more likely to go with someone who is more like establishment, more average. And that certainly aligns more with Cuomo and Adams than it does.

That's what I'm thinking. I mean, let's just like so then there's the 13 undecided. I'm just doing some math like let's let's just imagine Cuomo is the guy who stays in, right, because he's got the 25. So let's just imagine that if Slee was 14 gets out, let's imagine that, you know, six say we want Cuomo because we really don't want Mom Donnie. And then the other eight goes like, you know, three to Adams and then the remaining five even or let's let's then say three goes to we're not sure and two goes to Mom, Donnie.

OK, so that puts Mom, Donnie, 37 Cuomo, 31 Adams, 14 unsure 16. OK, let's keep breaking it down. Now we've got Adams at 14. If Adams gets out of his 14, what do you think goes to Cuomo? Eleven or 12. You think that much? Yeah, I think more. Yeah.

Yeah. Let's say let's say 10 just to make it a little more interesting. OK, so 10 goes to Cuomo and then four, two goes to unsure and two goes to Mom, Donnie. At that point, we would have Monbani 39 Cuomo, 41 and 18 in this unsure. Then the key question, the decision maker, as you kind of alluded to, Pat, is what happens to the people who aren't sure yet that 18 percent? Obviously, if it's split evenly between Mom, Donnie and Cuomo Cuomo wins if it skews just a little bit to Mom, Donnie. It's basically anyone's guess.

So in just running the numbers like that, I think if here's what's going to be interesting, if the establishment is committed to defeating Mom, Donnie, everybody but one of them gets out. I don't think it's Lee, who stays in because New York City is not right wing. I don't think it's Sliwa who stays in because New York City is not right wing. I don't think that's the one. And so it's got to be Cuomo or Adams. This is going to be a real test of the power of the establishment. And there may actually be pressure on Sliwa to get out of the race because a lot of these

right wing pundits are acting as though Mamdani winning would be the end of New York City, the end of New York City, the end of the world even. They're acting like it would be like something as tragic as 9-11 by the sounds of it. If you listen to their programs. So that may put a lot of pressure on Sliwa to get out of the race and endorse either Adams or Cuomo, which could put them over the edge. But it's really Cuomo and Adams who are going to have to come together and make an agreement about which one of them is going to have to get out. Right.

And those are two big egos there. So I don't know if either one are going to be willing to get out of the race. Honestly, we are quickly going to see what ends up holding more strength. Is it ego or is it the desperation to deny Zoran Mamdani, the mayorship? This is one of the most interesting races in a while. Yeah. And even if it is a head to head matchup, even if it is Mamdani versus Cuomo or Mamdani versus Adams, it's not a foregone conclusion who's going to win.

Mamdani still would have a path to victory. He's already starting at 35 percent. He could build on that. He could pick up some undecided voters. There's a long way to go until the election. So even if it is a head to head matchup, Mom, not he still could win 100 percent, 100 percent. All right, we're going to follow this one closely. I look forward to seeing you tomorrow. We'll have a new show and a new bonus show.