The David Pakman Show - What does it mean to win at this point?

Episode Date: March 23, 2026

-- On the Show -- Donald Trump prepares the public for winding down the Iran war while simultaneously threatening massive escalation over the Strait of Hormuz -- Donald Trump claims on Truth Social that the United States is getting what it wants and will not need to bomb Iran, sending market surging while Iran denies talks taking place -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struggles to explain administration policy when Kristen Welker asks whether Donald Trump is escalating or ending the Iran conflict -- Donald Trump celebrates the death of former FBI director Robert Mueller, highlighting the contrast with earlier Republican condemnation of celebrating the death of political opponents -- Gas prices surge 44% in two months after Donald Trump escalates tensions with Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, creating a self-inflicted economic crisis -- Donald Trump falsely claims that CNN released a poll showing 100% support for him, illustrating how he invents statistics as the Iran war worsens -- Donald Trump confuses his own talking points about transgender athletes during remarks to the Naval football team, revealing he cannot clearly explain the issue -- Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins claims food prices have mostly fallen despite ongoing high grocery costs, reinforcing a narrative aligned with Trump -- On the Bonus Show: Elon Musk offers to pay TSA workers' salaries, the cost of Trump's Golden Dome is up 50% already, lawmakers introduce a bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets, and much more... 💪 AG1 is offering you $126 in FREE gifts at https://drinkag1.com/pakman 💡 Outskill: Grab your free seat to the 2-Day AI Mastermind at https://link.outskill.com/PAKMANDEC1 👖 Fair Harbor: Get 20% off with code PAKMAN at https://fairharborclothing.com -- Become a Member: https://davidpakman.com/membership -- Subscribe to our (FREE) Substack newsletter: https://davidpakman.substack.com -- Get David's Books: https://davidpakman.com/echo -- TDPS Subreddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow -- David on Bluesky: https://davidpakman.com/bluesky -- David on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/davidpakmanshow (00:00) Start (01:19) Trump prepares Iran war exit(08:24) Trump claims progress Iran denies(18:36) Bessent struggles explaining Iran policy(25:07) Trump celebrates Robert Mueller death(32:05) Gas prices surge amid Iran tensions(38:46) Trump invents 100 percent poll(45:06) Trump confused about sports rhetoric(51:39) Rollins claims food prices falling   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The administration is now preparing to wind down a war that they claimed they were winning while at the same time threatening massive escalation within 48 hours. Which is it? Iran is denying claims from Trump that there has been any progress. The markets are seesawing in real time. And if we go back to the supposed central objective of this war, it still hasn't been achieved. Now at the same time, gas prices are up 44%. percent in just two months.

And of course, much of this is because of Donald Trump's choice to start this optional war. And as that's happening, they are claiming in the administration that Donald Trump has 100% support in a CNN poll that of course doesn't exist. We're going to hear from Scott Besson and Brooke Rawlins, other officials making completely ridiculous claims about how prices are down and everything is great. And then MAGA celebrating the death of Robert Mueller, although they told. told us when Charlie Kirk was killed, you never celebrate anyone's death, but now they are doing exactly that.

It's chaos, contradiction, fabrication. We're going to break it all down. Donald Trump is shockingly preparing to admit defeat, but he is also claiming victory. He says we won, but it's shaping up to be a huge loss. Markets are up. The Dow is up 900 points as I'm talking to you. We're going to explain why it is a complete. in total mess.

This is one of those stories where if you are only sort of loosely paying attention, you might be under the impression that Donald Trump has won this war, or you might be under the impression that the war is over and Trump has lost this war. And I don't blame you for the confusion because we have a lot of deliberate disinformation that is flowing from this administration. So let's start. On the one hand, Donald Trump has been talking about winding down the war with Iran very soon. And then on the other hand, we have Trump issuing threats about further strikes. And then

on the other hand, we have Donald Trump claiming that big progress has been made on talks with Iran, except Iran says there have been no talk. So let's start at the beginning. Trump a couple days ago posted the following. I'm going to read it directly so that you hear it as written. Quote, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the straight of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants starting with the biggest one first. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. Which is it?

Are we ending the war right now? Or are we about to escalate into something significantly bigger within days? And Trump is kind of stuck. And the entire war seemingly now comes down to a single issue, which is the same issue, which is the straight of Hormuz and whether it is open. Now, it's important here to pause and and remind ourselves that the point of this war has shifted over time. First, it was to re-obliterate the nuclear capabilities, which were previously obliterated in June, which I guess weren't or maybe they were. We don't know. Were they rebuilt? It's not really clear. Then it was about regime change. We've got to get

the Iranian regime out, except after the killing of the Ayatollah, the Ayatollah's son was made supreme leader and it just doesn't seem that the regime change is going to happen. Then it was, well, we want to take out their ballistic missiles capabilities, which all right, I mean, that is an objective, but the ballistic missiles capabilities aren't a threat to the United States and certainly don't support circumventing congressional authorization for this war and going in. So there's a problem with that claim. Now as a secondary order effect, the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down. And so that has become the priority.

Okay, so that's where we are right now. If the straight isn't open, global oil supplies at risk and markets are unstable and okay, that's where we are. So when Trump says we're very close to meeting objectives while also threatening this massive escalation, he is kind of unintentionally revealing the truth, which is that they haven't solved the core problem. And not only haven't they solved it, they don't really seem to have a clear path to solving it. Now, think about the timeline.

Because Trump wanted this done quickly and wrapped up clean, decisive, wrap a bow on it and get gas prices back down. He wants to declare victory with no complications. We are now weeks into this. Troops are still deploying. Strikes are ongoing. And behind the scenes, we are really far from any kind of clean resolution. So what Trump is doing instead is two things at the same time.

Prepare the public for an exit while threatening escalation to force some kind of. of last minute outcome. It's not really a coherent strategy. It's it's what you do when you're boxed in. You need to create options and you do them by threatening or suggesting opposite actions. The reality is if Trump did escalate and hit power plants, number one, this is going to be even worse for energy prices, which is part of what's making Trump panic in the first place. He wants to get those prices down, but he's threatening to do things that will only push them up even further. doesn't make a lot of sense. And you'd better believe that this will become a much bigger regional conflict if indeed Donald Trump were to do something like that. Now, if Trump doesn't escalate

and leaves and the strait of Hormuz is left unresolved, the whole recent purpose of the war, which is what we've got to get that open, isn't achieved. And then it becomes very dubious to argue that the United States won this war. Now, what I believe Trump is ultimately laying the the groundwork to do, and we'll see it in the next segment, is setting up to get out without winning, but claiming victory. The U.S. goes in, escalates the situation, contributes to this global economic disruption on energy, and then leaves claiming victory, but it's a mess there, and he's going to leave other people to handle it.

This is not the way the United States at least believes it operates globally. This is what a panicked and desperate exit ramp looks like when you realize you can't win. Now look at what the American allies are doing. Trump wanted NATO countries and others to step in and send ships and help reopen the strait and share the burden. They mostly refused, and I understand why, it's not their war. It's not shared defense of a NATO ally. Why on earth would they get involved with Trump's hairbrained idea?

So now Trump says, well, those are cowards. And what he really means is I wanted a coalition and I'm not getting a coalition, which makes the likelihood of solving this thing far significantly reduced. Politically, there is a pattern here. There's a trend. This is a very unpopular war. But the hardcore Trump base is sort of still supporting it. And Trump is only focusing there. So when he says we're winning and we're strong and all of that, he's ignoring the fact that the core objectives, which

have changed are unlikely to be achieved. And now all of the focus is on straight of Hormuz. So we are left with an intractable situation, Trump threatening massive escalation within 48 hours, preparing to wind down and escalate the war. We're not winning. That's what seems very clear. Now, here's where it gets completely nuts. You strip away the rhetoric.

You only look at the facts. The conclusion that a successful exit. is possible seems really hard to believe because if the straight isn't secured, the crisis, forget about the crisis being resolved. The straight is a problem that Trump created. Forget about not even meeting the underlying or original objectives. This is a new problem Trump created and hasn't solved. But this morning, Trump comes out and goes, oh, we just made big progress. But did they? That's where we have to go next. A desperate Donald Trump took to truth social this morning to say, we're doing it. We're getting what we want. I'm not going to have to start bombing Iran more

and bombing their energy facilities. Now, let me first remind you at the start of the weekend, Trump posted, quote, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the straight of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the USA will hit and obliterate their various power plants starting with the biggest one first. Well, we were getting to that point. This morning, stock market futures were down. It was looking like we would have another massive stock market crash today. But then this morning at 7.23 a.m. Eastern, a perfect time to post if you want to juice

the stock market. Trump takes to truth social again and posts, quote, I am please, that's a typo. I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations. Which will continue. It's the wrong which, by the way.

You put it like the wicked witch of the east. Which will continue throughout the week. I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Wow. Well, that is a very interesting typo-laden post. sounds pretty good. This does exactly what Trump intended it to do. It's spike stock market

futures with Dow futures immediately jumping more than 900 points. Right when Trump announces this, oil futures immediately decline, declining 10% in an instant. The only little problem is that Iran completely denies this. Iran says it never. happened. Iran says it's not true. There have been no talks at all. Here is Maria Bartaromo this morning reporting on the Iranian statement. Now, the president this morning said that talks are going well and that he's directed the military to halt and postpone any strikes on Iran. Iran state TV is reported. I don't know if we can believe Iran state TV, but Iran state TV says that Trump capitulated. There are no direct or indirect talk.

taking place with the Trump regime. This is from a spokesperson for the IRGC and it is being run on Iran state TV with the foreign ministry of Iran and claiming that President Trump's remarks on day five a halt to strike on Iranian energy infrastructure is a ploy to buy time for military preparations. What is your reaction? Well, I believe there are talks happening. That's the memo that I've received. That's the briefing that I've received. That's the briefing that I've received. I don't know how trustworthy Iranian state TV is. It's probably like a couple liberal networks that come to my mind. But it's now the president this morning.

There it is. So listen, I have to admit, as much as I despise the radical Iranian regime, they seem to have figured out why Trump said this. The Iranian regime believes Trump posted this falsely simply to try to juice the stock market. and reduce energy prices. So what we have here is Taco Trump. Trump always chickens out, realizing that he has completely lost control of what he started. He's trying to figure out a way to undo the damage.

And Iran is saying, uh, no. Now, there is an optimistic scenario here if you want to search around for it. There's a silver lining you can find. Even though Trump appears to be lying about the productive talks, if for whatever reason, Trump is really backing off of striking these Iranian sites, that's still good. Even if it's not because he got the wind that he is claiming, backing off the strikes is something we should all look at and say, well, that is good. And in fact, this entire thing is deeply unpopular.

92% of Americans in a recent poll want this entire Iran thing to wrap up. So it is a desperate Trump. It is a lying Trump. But maybe we can sort of cross our fingers and hope that Trump is slowly starting to come to his senses about getting out of this. Now, as of this moment, let's see, trading has opened now. Those stock futures were plus 900. The Dow is up almost 900 points and the NASDAQ is up 2%. So listen, I, I'm against the Iran thing in principle. I'm against the Iran thing because it is illegal the way that Trump has carried it out. I don't like what this is doing to energy prices. I don't like what it's

doing to gas prices. I certainly don't like what it's doing to my. mutual funds. And so I'm against Trump backing off for whatever reason. But we've got to call it for what it is and recognize that Trump is not dominating this engagement and winning no matter which set of objectives you choose to believe is the real one, which of course have changed as Donald Trump has figured out, well, that one I'm not going to be able to do. This one I'm not going to be able to do. Anything that gets Trump to back off, whether it's panic in the White house or he's scared or whatever. That's a good thing.

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If you expect it to go down tomorrow, then wait until tomorrow. But we have unleashed this disgusting reality of Donald Trump's gas. And you can sign up at join packman.com using the coupon code, all one word, Trump gas. Is the war starting or ending? Well, that was a difficult one for Donald Trump's Treasury secretary, Scott Besson. Every time Scott Bessent is interviewed by Kristen Welker, it doesn't go well. He takes issues with her questions. He takes issues with her follow-ups.

He takes issues with the framing. He doesn't like any of it. But the problem isn't really in the questions that Kristen Welker asks. They're reasonable. They're to a degree obvious questions that we need answered as Americans about what is our government doing. And so that is not good when you are carrying out a policy that is terrible for Americans. Kristen Welker quite simply says, is the war ending or is the war escalating?

And Scott Bessent goes, well, it's kind of both. We are taking out their missiles, their missile systems and the factories that build those missiles and now are the general Kane, secretary heads are leading a campaign to destroy all the fortifications along the straits of Hermose. Just to put a fine point on this, though, is the president in the process of winding down this war or escalating? Again, they're not mutually exclusive. Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate, crew. Okay.

We have to bomb in order to save and all of this stuff. It is, this is like some real 1984 type stuff. You know, war is peace and black is white, up is down. Think about what Bessent is arguing because it's completely incoherent logically. If escalation works, then the war's not really winding down. If the goal is the escalation, why would you be threatening to expand the war? And if we are both escalating and winding down at the same time, then what really is the objective here?

Now, what I think is actually going on is Trump's policy is so erratic. I mean, think about it. On Saturday, Trump said, we're about to bomb every Iranian nuclear facility if they don't open up the straight of Hormuz. And then this morning, Trump goes, hey, you know what? We had really productive talks. And I don't think we need to do the bombing anymore. And Iran's like, we didn't have any talks. What is this guy talking about? Trump is so erratic on this issue that Bessent doesn't want to be definitive because he has no clue what Trump's plan actually is. In the time that Bessent was getting makeup on for this interview, the entire policy might have changed.

There might have been new strikes or Trump might have said we're leaving. This is how disjointed the entire thing is. So they want to keep both options open, claim progress. We're preparing for failure. We're also almost about to leave, but we're doing more strikes than ever. What? That doesn't really make a lot of sense. Now, then the question of sanctions came up. And again, these are really good questions. And it's great. I wish we could put them to Trump, but putting them to Besson is still interesting. If the point of sanctions is to prevent Iran from getting any money, then what are we talking about with the sanction policy and looking at money transfers like none of it is really coherent. Well, I don't know that Scott Bessent understands it any better. So when we unsanctioned this,

rather than the oil going to China, it can go to Japan, it can go to Korea, it can go to Indonesia, it can go to Malaysia. And it can go to Iran too. I mean, isn't the point that the sanctions were in place to prevent Iran from getting any of the money. They will have access to some of the money now. Again, Kristen, you're missing the point. So please listen to me. They were getting it from China anyway. Scott Besson doesn't like it. Kristen, you're missing the point. Well, no, I think she gets the point.

The problem with the question is Besson doesn't like where it leads. He acts like it's a trick question. So he wants to shut down the premise of the question, which is a classic when they don't like the the framing. He can't reconcile what they are going to do with what sanctions. And then what is the point of a sanction in the first place? If sanctions are in place, but Iran is still getting money, well, then they're not really being affected by the sanctions. Or is it that the goal is for them not to get money, but the policy is

violating that goal because they're getting money anyway. It's totally incoherent. It is a it is a verbal ink blot of non-policy. And Kristen Welker seems to pick up on that and it only gets worse. All right, here's one more question that Bessent really didn't like. Would you raise taxes to fund this war? Because like, you know, you've all been saying we have no money for so long and we've got to pay off the national debt and all this stuff. It must be the case that we can only afford this war if we raise money, right? Well, Bessent doesn't like that one either. What a surprise. Would the administration ever raise taxes in order to fund this war? I get, Kristen, they, they, terrible framing. I think that...

Well, it's just a question. It's a simple question that I think a lot of people have. It's a ridiculous question. Can you answer it? Why would we do that? That the... That we have plenty. We have a trillion dollars in this year's budget. He's glitching. For the military. And President Trump, even before the conflict started, had said that he would like to further build out the military. So just is raising taxes under consideration at all?

You're saying you have plenty of money. Not at all. Not at all. I thought we didn't have any money. I mean, you know, a central part of Trump's messaging has been, we're broke. The country's out of money. All these social programs are sucking us dry. We've got to cancel all the social programs. We've got to cut. We've got to bring in Doge to start cutting everything because we've got no money. But then all of a sudden, comes to war. And there's plenty. We got a trillion bucks, Kristen. That's a crazy question. We got plenty of money for this war. So which is it? And unfortunately, this is sort of like kind of sad. It kind of probably is what has been the claim from Republicans for a long time, which is we never have money for social programs, no matter what's going on in the economy, but we always have money

for war, no matter what's going on in the economy. Food stamps we can't afford, but, you know, missiles we can. This is a theme. This is a trend for Republicans and it has been for a very, very long time. Remember when celebrating death was bad? Donald Trump cheered the death of former FBI director Robert Mueller, who died over the weekend at age 81. Trump said something completely and totally disgusting, but that's not really what the story is about. What I want to talk to you about is how standards apply only to the other side when you were part of MAGA. Robert Mueller passed away over the weekend and Donald Trump posts the following. Remember, this is the sitting president of the United States.

Quote, Robert Mueller just died. Good. I'm glad he's dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people. President Donald J. Trump. Now, Donald Trump is not reacting to anything Mueller recently did. He's reacting to having been investigated by Robert Mueller years ago when Mueller was appointed special counsel.

And I'll remember that Mueller was hired to do the job. He didn't create the investigation. It wasn't Mueller's idea to look into Trump's connections to Russia. He was hired to do that job. He was brought in and he did the job. And Trump cannot move on. And now he is celebrating the death of Mueller. Now just for comparison, Barack Obama also put out a statement.

And it's a little different in tone and tenor. Barack Obama said, quote, Bob Mueller was one of the finest directors in the history of the FBI, transforming the bureau after 9-11 and saving countless lives. He goes on and then ends with Michelle and I send our condolences to Bob's family and everyone who knew and admired him. A little bit of a different vibe than the one from Trump. Now, what I want to remind you of is how after Charlie Kirk was killed, the right was all up in arms saying you'd better not cheer the death of people, especially not Charlie Kirk.

And of course, almost no one was cheering the death of Charlie Kirk. Some did acknowledge he was a terrible influence on American politics, but he shouldn't have been killed. And we denounce political violence and we denounce murder. But cheering the death, yeah, almost no, nobody serious was doing that. But J.D. Vann still found it necessary to say the following. But if you celebrate Charlie's Kirk, Charlie Kirk's death, you should not be protected from being fired for being a disgusting person.

If you're a university professor who benefits from American tax dollars, you should not be celebrating Charlie Kirk's death. And if you are, maybe you should lose your job or your university should face a loss of funding. If you are the kind of person who thinks that Charlie Kirk was justifiably murdered, sometimes the government can't do anything about that.

But you know what can is civil society. And I've actually been gratified to see all these people standing up and saying, Yes, we have free speech and yes, we have free debate. But if you're if you're celebrating the death of a young father, you ought to pay some consequences for it. All right. Well, listen, Trump is doing exactly that.

It's not a young father, but Trump is celebrating the death of people. And they all seem to think it's completely and totally fine. They don't care. And it's because it only applies to the other side, not to them. Here's Scott Besson from that interview with Kristen Welker. She asked, do you think what Trump said was appropriate, especially given the Bob Mueller was a decorated military veteran, and Besson goes, well, Trump's family was treated very poorly by Martin. I ask you on a different topic about a post by President Trump from yesterday responding

to the death of former special counsel Robert Mueller. He posted this quote, Robert Mueller just died. Good. I'm glad he's dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people. Do you think it's appropriate for the president of the United States to celebrate the death of an American citizen, someone who's a Bronze Star, Purple Heart recipient and who served in Vietnam? Kristen, I was with the president in the green room at Davos, and there was a video playing of what may have been an illegal raid on his home at Mar-Lago. They are going through his wife's wardrobe, and I watched the look in his eye, and I think that neither one of us can understand what has been done to the president and to his family.

But to the question of the president's post, I mean, Robert Mueller didn't. order that raid, is it appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of any American citizen? Again, I think that given what has been done to President Trump and his. Yeah, you get the point. Bob Mueller was, of course, long gone when that raid took place. It has nothing to do with Bob Mueller. I mean, it's just a ridiculous reaction.

Now, I'm going to translate Scott Besson's reaction. I really want to keep my job. That's it. All he has to say is, no, that's not appropriate. But he really wants to keep his job and he's got to pledge loyalty to Trump. don't understand what's been done to Trump. They were going through Melania's underwear. Yeah, but Mueller was gone at that point. That's nothing to do with Robert Mueller. Now, as a reminder, Robert Mueller was Bronze Star recipient, Purple Heart recipient, Vietnam veteran. Donald Trump

got a letter about his ankles to avoid going to Vietnam and then mocked veterans, said he prefers soldiers who don't get captured, ridiculing the late Senator John McCain, and is now celebrating the death of a decorated veteran. There are no longer standards. There are no standards anymore. And all of this stuff about decorum, remember, they only care about it when it's about the left. When it's them, oh, Trump is plain spoken. And he tells it like it is. And we should celebrate it. And he sounds just like the average person. Well, you know, I don't think the average American takes pleasure and cheers the death of others. Some do, but I don't think that's the average American at all. A lot of clothing brands today talk about sustainability, but our Fair Harbor sponsor

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Prices are up 44% in just two months. Now first there's the political. If this happened under Joe Biden, just imagine what you'd be seeing in the media right now. It would be 24-7 on Fox News about gas prices. This is mostly because of Donald Trump's Iran war. And of course, you start threatening Iran, you invade, you escalate, you lead to the straight of Hormuz getting shut down, one of the critical kind of oil choke points of the world. So oil future spike.

Whoops. And I apologize. I hit my microphone justiculating there. Refining costs go up. And this is where we're at. Plus 44% gas prices. That is what everybody is now paying at the pump. Now remember what we were told and what Donald Trump promised from day one.

Prices are going to come down. Cool. Okay. Which prices? All of them. When? Day one. Did it happen? No. Trump understands business. So this is like sort of the right person that you want to have in charge who's going to be able to figure all of this out. Turns out if Trump

does understand business, it doesn't really seem to be helping him in his role as president of the United States. Trump will stabilize the economy from the destabilizing presidency of Joe Biden. And yet gas prices were flat and now they're erratic and job creation was level. And now we're losing jobs or creating no jobs. So that one didn't happen either. And so we take the promises and we compare them to what we have and we have a self-inflicted geopolitical crisis that even if you don't care what's going on in Iran at the individual level, is directly raising the costs of just about everything that you buy.

And at the same time that this is happening, Trump is out there saying we're winning, we're close to success. We're actually about to start bombing. I do want a ceasefire. I don't want a ceasefire. We're not sending in ground troops. We are sending in ground troops. The other day in a 13 minute period when Trump was talking to reporters, he took all of the positions I just mentioned. Yes and no on ceasefire. Yes and no on ground troops. We're escalating versus we're winding down and many more. This is, you know, we could go into the whole dementia cognitive thing, but I'm not even talking about that. This is not survivable politically for Donald Trump. It's not survivable economically for the United States.

And it's not survivable at a personal finance level for just the average American who is struggling right now, many living paycheck to paycheck. And the most incredible part is that this is all optional. This was not COVID or a comet or a sinkhole or a volcano eruption or whatever. This was optional. The tariff program was optional. This Iran war was optional. And what it is all leading to is higher costs for everybody.

Even if you drive an electric vehicle, as some of you wrote to me and said, you know, David, I'm kind of laughing about the gas. Well, everything's going to be more expensive. The stuff you order online, the things you buy in a store, the products you depend on groceries, it's all going to be more expensive even if you drive an EV because it's mostly coming by truck. And the trucks mostly are not electric. Now again, we are doing one little thing, which is we're doing our Trump's gas membership drive this week.

We have discounted our memberships all the way down to what a gallon of gas costs. So if you think gas is now 394 a gallon, that's insanely high compared to what it was. But if you think a David Packman show membership is now 394 a month, that's way lower than it normally is. So you can go to join packman.com and use the coupon code Trump gas all one word and it'll drop the price down to 394, which is what a gallon of gas costs today. Now, let's talk about Trump's options. There's only a few and none of them are particularly good. Trump can escalate.

This is one of the threats he's been making. Trump could escalate, which means more strikes, more threats, maybe targeting infrastructure facilities, energy facilities. And the risk there is that this is even. worse for the economy, spikes oil and gas even more, and opens up a broader regional war, which Trump will simply not be able to end. I think it's already gone beyond Trump's ability to end it when he wants. But if it becomes really regional, Trump will be like just dead in the water as far as being able to decide when it's over. It might project strength. It might scare

someone into compliance, maybe, but it almost guarantees things get more expensive for Americans. things become more unstable and it spirals completely beyond Trump's control. That's like the double down option. The other possibility is Trump pulls back even without winning. Now, as I've been predicting for weeks now, if Trump did that, he will declare victory. He will say, we did it. We've largely met our objectives and we're going to wind down. But now that the straight of Hormuz is closed, if that issue doesn't get resolved and oil

and gas remain high and markets remain unstable, the exit will look like Trump tucking his tail between his legs and going home, the loser. And that's not going to be good politically for him. And so based on his personality, I doubt that it's something that he would do. It would certainly undercut the premise of how he's so decisive and strong, which he is sold to us from the beginning. So where Trump finds himself, the reason why, in a 13. minute press conference, Trump goes, we're basically ending it. We're about to do more strikes than ever.

We don't want to ceasefire. I do want to ceasefire. The straight of Hormuz opening is the number one priority. Actually, that's not really what I'm worried about. The reason that's all happening is Trump is trying to threat a needle where he wants to threaten escalation in a way that will make people afraid, but also get people ready for the idea that he's going to leave, whether he has one or not, even though he will certainly claim victory. Now that we are weeks into this thing, can we all just acknowledge the right thing, the good thing, would have been never to do this in the first place. And I think a lot of the magas in my audience would probably agree with that at this point as well. When you have nothing going well, what do you do? You just make up a poll.

Donald Trump is now claiming that CNN released the poll showing he has 100% support. Not high support, not strong numbers, not growing support. Trump says I have 100% support. Now stop for just one second and think about how absurd that sounds because there has never been a real poll in the American political space showing 100% support for anything political. You could go, hey, do you support? the unlawful vigilante killing of UPS drivers. And you would have some people who go, yeah, I do support that actually.

They always screw up my delivery. The point in that the point is 100% consensus in the United States on anything, even the most obvious things. You just don't see it. And Donald Trump says I have 100% support per CNN. A poll to have shown that MAGA is essentially unified behind you as our Republicans when come to Iran. There's been reports that, you know, the United States might be sending 2,500 Marines to the Middle East.

Are you concerned that a move like that could potentially change the unity? I don't know. I seem to have great support because CNN came out with a poll today. Then I'm at 100%. And they said they've never seen a poll like that. The CNN... They've never seen it because there is not. said I'm at 100% and they've never seen that before, uh, which is an honor. I was, I was impressed

that CNN would do that. But, uh, as far as troops are concerned, I can't tell you what we're doing. As far as the things that matter, who the hell knows? Um, this is not how people work. People, a country of 340 million and there's 100% agreement about something that that is not even remotely plausible. So this is not like, oh, Trump's exactly. exaggerating a little bit. He's selectively interpreting the poll. It is completely made up. And the key is when is it happening? The war is going terribly. Gas prices are up 44% in two months. What we're even doing in Iran is increasingly unclear. The messaging from the administration is falling apart in real time. And when that happens, Trump does what he always does, which is forget about.

reality, let me give you something that sounds good for me. And it's easy to repeat. I have 100% support. This stands out because there's a number there that doesn't make any sense. You're not cherry picking or exaggerating. It just isn't. There's nothing. There's no data. There's no poll. There's no report. It is a completely fabricated claim and it doesn't even sound believable. The choice of CNN also gives it away because CNN is constantly dismissed by Trump and his allies is fake and untrustworthy. Now all of a sudden, CNN, even CNN shows me with 100% support. So we have to understand how this is another classic of authoritarian.

Is something useful in the moment? If it helps him, it's real. If it doesn't, it's fake. There's a real poll right now, which shows Trump at 34% approval. It's not made up. It's an American research group poll. American research group is a right leaning pollster. And even they have Trump at only 34% approval.

That's real. 100% support. And by the way, what does support even mean? 100% support from CNN. Now, I have a speculation as to what Trump was talking about here. I have speculating. I don't know this to be true, but I'm speculating. A recent poll found that 92%

of Americans want the Iran war ended. They don't like it. Is it possible? Trump took the 92% number, which is a very high number, exaggerated it to 100, not really knowing what it was and just put the tag on it that it's support for me. 92% opposition to the Iran war becomes I have 100% support. Is that possible? I don't know.

Now if we zoom out, it's important to consider what is. it means from the standpoint of propaganda and political communication when they stop arguing about what is actually happening. Are we sending ground troops or not? Trump goes, I don't know. Troops I don't know about. You can laugh at it. But what I believe is happening in real time here is that they need to create an alternate

universe because the real world has gotten so politically disastrous for them. And so we laugh at 100% support. Give me a break, dude. The point isn't to convince everybody. The point is give your supporters something simple and absolute that they can repeat without a second thought. He's got 100% support. And once you reach the point where the claims don't have to be believable, you know that

it's all breaking down. The problem is this goes too far. 100% support. Give me a break. So what we need to be ready for as we go forward is for them to complete. completely abandoned even making a case about Iran. Step one is they try to argue this is good and here's why it makes sense. Cool.

Okay. Step two is for them to falsely claim that they are winning when they are not. All right. Well, we got beyond that. Step three is to abandon that all together. Troops. I'm not going to talk about that. But I got 100% support.

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You've got to see this. Donald Trump had one of those moments of visible confusion where he's, where he reveals he doesn't even understand his own disgusting talking points that he keeps talking about. This is a really good one. So Trump invites the naval football team to the Oval Office and he brings up the issue of trans athletes. Now, he talks about this constantly.

Men and women's sports, get the men out of women's sports. And then he goes, what about the women playing in men's sports? He got confused about his own. trans rhetoric in the most delightful way, because as I often remind you, this whole trans sports thing, it's barely an issue. And the reminder from Trump here is nobody cares about women in men's sports. Fully half of this issue is nothing. So let's play the clip and then I want to delve more deeply into it.

This is really good stuff. What about women playing in men's sports? Think we could have a woman. take your position is there a woman out there i don't think so you know we're trying to end that no men think of it trump realizes he got the talking point wrong and he tries to save no men in women's sports maybe i'll put land in in women's sports for a little while how ridiculous i mean you know they say that's an 80 20 issue no no that's a 99 percent issue it's amazing thank goodness the democrats keep pushing these things open board

Yeah. No one's pushing it, of course. So it's absolutely funny to see because he wrongly starts on women and men's sports realizes that's not the talking point. No one gives a damn about women in men's sports, not even me being Trump. So then he jumps and lands on men and women's sports, which is the talking point that he's supposed to be making. And in the middle of this weird, demented transition, the entire argument just kind of collapses

into confusion because he's mixing together two different things. Now, what I think is fascinating about this is Trump knows the slogan, men and women's sports. He knows the applause line. He knows it gets a reaction. But he can't really explain it. And what we ended up here was with a, what we ended up with here is a reminder of how minor this issue is. Now, I'm going to say it again, so nobody gets upset.

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't care about the dignity and fair. treatment of trans people. Of course, I treat everyone with respect and everyone deserves to be treated with respect socially and under the law. But what I'm reminding everybody is that this issue of trans sports is just not a real issue. But what about a trans boxer who's beating the crap out of a woman? It's statistically non-existent. Okay. You look at the number of trans people. in general under 1%. You look at the percentage of those that play sports at all. And then the ones that are doing it in anything that could approximate a competitive level. And then you go only to the sports where it matters. There are there are segregated sports that don't really need to be,

you know, archery and equestrian. It's like, who cares? Compete wherever you want. I don't give a damn. But then when you slice and slice and slice and slice and slice and then you realize, wow, some states only have like zero to three trans athletes at all in the NCAA. Then you have to remember, no one even cares about women, quote, women in men's sports. If someone born female wants to play in the men's basketball league, Trump doesn't care. They don't care because there's no concern about fairness there. So when you reduce this, this is an issue. issue Trump has ranted and raved about for years. And it sometimes applies to zero, one or two people per state.

There's a lot of states where there are zero instances of what Trump says we should be worried about, so-called men and women's sports. So Trump kind of glitching about it, there's a couple things that it relates to. One is that, yes, Trump's often visibly confused and disoroughed. oriented and we don't know what the hell he's talking about. And I don't think he does and he seems to be declining cognitively. And whether he has dementia or not, he can't even keep the talking points straight. That's one story. But the other story here is that the structure of this argument really just isn't there. Trump's repeating it as a slogan. It's not it's not a policy. And as soon as he has to kind of improvise around it, we all go, man, this sounds really stupid.

It's like doesn't really make any sense. And in a strange way, it exposes how much, how much of the issue is driven by by messaging. The messaging of get men out of women's sports. It's meant to create an image of this 300 pound boxer pounding a 110 pound woman or something like that. That's the imagery Trump depends on for anyone to even go, oh, wow, that sounds. But then when you actually break it down and you think about the sports and the divisions and men in women's sports versus women in men sports and you go, wow, there's.

There's some states where there's not a single instance of this, you realize that this is a vapid and baseless thing. So it's a reminder of how Trump's brain isn't exactly firing on all cylinders, but it's also a reminder of how absurd even continuing to talk about this as a political issue is. And I want to say just one other thing about it. For those who go, no, we need Trump to deal with this issue. Why? Sports leagues have dealt with this in the way that is appropriate.

for them for decades. Sports leagues have dealt with this issue as an issue of intersex individuals for a long time. They have rules. They have policies. Why do we need the federal government involved? And I thought a big part of these right wingers was keep the government out of anything. It doesn't absolutely have to be involved in. You're telling me the government absolutely has to be involved in regulating sports leagues that have been regulating themselves perfectly well with regard to issues of gender and sex for decades. It doesn't sound to me like conservatism, which they love to preach about. Oh boy.

She probably thinks Trump will like this and I think he will. The question we need to answer as we watch Donald Trump's agricultural secretary, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on TV is did she suck up to Trump enough to keep her job? She went on TV and as we are seeing everything get more expensive as gas prices are up 44% in two months. Oil is up, energies, up, groceries up, everything's up. She went on TV and she said, almost all food prices are down. A couple outliers, but almost all food prices are down. Now, of course, that is not only untrue, it's not even close to true. If you look at what people are paying in grocery stores, fact check says false, but Brooke is performing for an audience

of one. How does she do here? On food prices, this is a temporary conflict. The president has said that. There shouldn't be really a food price increase, at least for the long term. Over the last year, we've brought almost all food prices down with a couple of outliers. That's a lie. Dairy's down, cheese down, fruits down, vegetables are down. A lot of the proteins are down.

And we expect that trend to continue as we continue to invest in rural America, bring the cost of labor down, bring the cost of inflation down. work to bring the cost of inputs down while opening up these world markets to our farmers, which were closed under the last administration. This is not true. This is simply not true. And you can look at it. You can look it up yourself, you know, bananas are up a little bit.

Bread is up. Chicken is up a little bit. Eggs are up a teeny tiny bit. Beef is up. Milk is up not that much. Oranges are up a little bit. Oranges are very seasonal. Tomatoes are very, very seasonal.

Electricity is up. Gasoline is obviously up. Utilities, piped gas, natural gas is up. All of this stuff is up. Now, some of it is up more than more than others. That's true. But the important reminder is we need to keep them accountable to their promise. didn't say the price increases will slow down. Trump said that prices would go down in absolute

terms. That requires deflation. We all know we haven't had deflation. When inflation has been between 2.4 and 3.9, that means prices are going up, not down. And she is really not talking to the public. She, when she talks to the public in this way, it's the Biden Harris thing, where we learned in 2024, 23, 24, telling people that everything's all good doesn't convince them when they're at home looking at their credit card statement and going, it's not all good. And they're doing the same thing with the public. But Brooke Rollins is really performing for Donald Trump. She needs to make sure Trump knows, hey, I'm telling them you fixed it.

You were right. You bought the prices down. If it doesn't match reality, it is secondary. They're going to have to deal with that in November with voters. And I think they're going to fail to do so. And they're going to get absolutely crushed. But the most sort of terrifying thing about all of this, I'm researching and writing a lot about this for my second forthcoming book. You can end up a lot of us would look at this and we would go,

wait a second. How could that be true? All nonpartisan media is simply reporting on the prices and the prices are up. I can go and research it for myself. I can look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They track pricing for all of these different foods. I know it's not happening. How could anyone believe that? Well, I'll tell you how people can believe that. If you mostly consume content inside pro-Trump media bubbles, you only get fed stuff like this. You see clips of Brooke Rollins saying prices are down and influencers saying Trump saved us from high prices. And Scott Bessent saying prices are down. And Trump saying prices are down. And bogus articles from right wing conspiracy websites saying prices are down. And so for a lot of us who either are in a

different media environment or seek out the underlying data, that's the most important thing. I just pulled up the data from BLS. We say, how could anyone fall for any of this stuff? Well, if all you get from your social media, your digital platforms is an algorithm that reinforces this right wing stuff that prices are down, you might actually get to a point where you go, I don't know, it sort of looks like prices are up at my local grocery store, but I believe the hundred people I've seen over the last week tell me that prices are actually down. These lies from people like Brooke Rawlins land in an environment where everything you're being told tells you no, prices are down.

And even if your grocery bills tell you a different story, you say it must just be my grocery store. It must just be my town or my state. Now, I don't believe that that works long term. And I think this is part of why we are seeing insane, insane, insane numbers for what Democrats may be able to do in the fall with the midterm elections. Based on direct experience, you couldn't possibly go into that polling place and say, I'm going to reward these Republicans because they brought prices down.

That being said, you can get a lot of push to fall for this stuff if you are in a filter bubble that only shows you people like Brooke Rollins going, we did it, prices are down. Now, on the bonus show today, we are going to follow up on what is how to have. happening at airports with TSA and Elon Musk is offering to pay TSA salaries for now. The estimate for what it'll cost to build the Golden Dome has grown to $185 billion. And lawmakers are going to introduce a bipartisan bill to ban sports bets on prediction markets. Why that specifically, I will tell you. and get instant access to the bonus show at join packman.com.

Today starts the Trump's gas membership drive. Every day, we will discount memberships down to what a gallon of gas costs in Trump's America. Today, it is $3.94. Go to join packman.com and use the coupon code, Trump gas. To get the discount, I welcome you into the ranks of membership. See you on the bonus show today.