The Decibel - A crack in Carney’s Liberal caucus over climate

Episode Date: June 1, 2026

Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault has announced his resignation from Mark Carney’s government, after stepping down from cabinet last fall.. During his time in Canadian parliament Mr. Guilbeault has become a symbol for the Liberal party’s climate conscience. His decision to depart centres on the Prime Minister’s approach to climate policy and it signals the most public disruption in the perceived unity of the Liberal caucus.    Marieke Walsh is The Globe’s senior political reporter. She’s here to discuss the politics and policy surrounding climate and what Mr. Guilbeault's resignation means for the Prime Minister.  Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And the last thing was the MOU. So I wanted to see what the result of the MOU would be and what they would sign. And when I saw the result, it was clear for me that it was time to go. You're listening to Liberal MP Stephen Gilboe. Explain why he's resigning from Mark Carney's government. Stephen Gilbo has been a lot of different things in Canada's parliament over nearly seven years. A star in the Liberal caucus when he first ran in 2019. a voice for the province of Quebec, and a controversial environment minister for almost four years.

Above all, he's become a symbol for the climate conscience of the Liberal Party. Now he's leaving that party after previously quitting Prime Minister Mark Carney's cabinet last fall. I don't think we can say credibly that we have a climate plan. I think we have elements of a climate plan. Canada hasn't abandoned the fight against climate change, but we've seriously weakened it. His announcement was met with a lot of respect from his liberal colleagues. I have a tremendous amount of respect for him and the work that he does. It's a personal decision that I respect.

The greatest respect for Mr. Guilbo. I have the most respect for Stephen and his work. Other MPs like Green Party leader Elizabeth May were more emotional about Gilbo's decision. Courage should be respected regardless of views. what we are dealing with is a crisis, but it's heartbreaking. And a conservative member from Calgary had some nice words for the former environment minister. Well, thank you, Mr. Speaker. You know, I'm a rookie in this chamber.

I'm a new member of parliament, barely having served not even three years. But I can acknowledge that public service comes at a price, at a cost to your friends, your family, your loved ones. And the Honorable Member from Laurier-St. Marie certainly has committed himself. to this service. Gilbo's resignation is the first real crack in the perceived unity of the liberal caucus, even though it's not the first departure of a Trudeau-era cabinet minister. It's in fact number four for those who are counting. And for Gilbo, his decision centered on how the prime minister is choosing to balance his energy priorities

with the realities of climate change. So today, we're going to get into what Gilbo's resignation means for Carney and the politics and policy that surrounds the government on the climate file. Marika Walsh is our guest. She's the Globe's senior political reporter based in our Ottawa Bureau. I'm Cheryl Sutherland and this is the Decibel from the Globe and Mail. Hi, Marika. Welcome back to the show.

Hi, Cheryl. I'm so happy to join you guys again. Yeah, I'm so happy to have you back on the show as well. So we heard a bit from Stephen Gilbo off the top. And that's actually from an interview you did, Marika, with him after he had. announced his resignation. What else did he tell you? Like, what were your takeaways from your interview with him? My biggest takeaway is how much more critical and direct he has been after announcing his exit in his interviews with media, with journalists, about why he's leaving

his criticisms of the government's policies, then he was in sort of the more formal drama of his exit. And what I mean by that is he was pretty amenable to. He was a minuteable towards the government in what he said in the House of Commons when he was leaving, and in return he got kind remarks back. These seven years intense, demanding and deeply meaningful have been among the most formative of my life. I leave proud of what we have accomplished together. But I think that belies or downplays the consequence and drama of this.

In a way, it wasn't dramatic his exit because the prime minister, he's in a teflon phase. Slings slide off his back in a way they won't in three or four years when the honeymoon is over. And Stephen Gilbeau has had a very careful exit in which he is not too critical of the government in those formal settings like the House of Commons, but then in his interview with me and with others quite critical. I was hoping we would be able to make progress with the prime minister. And we may still, but right now there's nothing that has been presented by the government that shows. how we were going to do that.

My biggest takeaway from the interview he had with us is that he doesn't believe Canada has a credible climate plan anymore. And he says that we are off track from our targets in quite a dramatic way compared to how he paints the picture from when he was Environment Minister. Did he say if there was anything that could have gotten him to stay? I think I'll answer that in the inverse. What he suggested is that after he quit Cabinet, and he said this to other people as well, and it's also what our sources have told us about his thinking in terms of determining when to leave,

is that he left Cabinet because he couldn't stand by the government's policies around the deal with Alberta. And that deal was to get Alberta to agree to an industrial carbon price in exchange in part for a new crude oil pipeline that expands production in the oil sands, that expands our exports. of crude oil. And what he says is that while he couldn't stand by that policy as a cabinet minister, he was hoping that by staying in caucus he could still influence policy. He could still be a voice of the environmental or climate movement that would then shift the direction of the government policy, more moderate it towards the center versus how far the prime minister is actually going in the changes he's making. And he said that essentially once he saw the details of the

plan between Alberta and the federal government, he realized that he wasn't being listened to in a meaningful way. And so he wants to keep fighting to address climate change and it's no longer doable in this government. Okay. Let's get into the politics of this resignation. How does this impact Prime Minister, how does Stephen Gilbo leaving impact the Prime Minister? I think it's a question mark how it impacts the prime minister. The prime minister in public has largely appeared to shrug it off. Of course, it's for him to make decisions about his career in the next stage of career, all aspects of all our careers, even journalists, even prime ministers, I get to a point where things change and they make people make decisions. And I very much respect that.

And as I say, I've enjoyed it. In quite a telling comment to reporters on the Hill, he, according to Politico said absolutely when he was asked if losing Gilbo was worth getting the deal with Alberta. So that kind of shows what he's thinking about it. And he's also shrugged off the broader dissent that we are hearing from people within what's called the climate caucus of the Liberal Party, the concerns they're raising. He has largely dismissed and very staunchly defended what he believes are still his climate credentials. Remember that before Mark Carney became liberal leader and prime minister, he was a big name in the climate movement. And so many people on the left side of the liberal spectrum believed when they supported him in the liberal leadership that they were getting

a climate champion, that they were getting somebody who would not forsake climate policy in the name of economic policy. And the question that they are increasingly, increasingly asking themselves, or the question they're telling me that they're increasingly asking themselves, is he actually that climate ally that they thought he was because they believe that he in some ways has betrayed that branding or that perception while in government? When you say that the prime minister kind of shrugs this off, this resignation, is there a danger of Carney being too dismissive about this? There is a risk. We don't know how big that risk is yet. When I say shrugging off, what I'm referring to is, for example, last week when he was asked

about the dissent, the liberal MPs who had sent him a letter in April raising concerns about the government's climate policy, he said, I have 160 other MPs. So that expresses how he's approaching it, how he's thinking about it. He says he's being pragmatic. He says he is balancing many different competing demands. And he is dismissing what he thinks are purity tests on the climate front that don't take the bigger picture of Canada's interest in mind when the government's making policy. Right. Okay. So this letter that was leaked to Radio Canada, there was 14 MPs that signed it, but we don't know the names of the MPs, which you're kind of speaking to. But these 14 MPs, I'm assuming, are part of this thing called the climate caucus inside the liberal party.

What do we know about that group? What we know is that a lot of liberals say they are climate-minded individuals, that they are environmentalists. For example, Melanie Dolly, the industry minister, says that she is part of the Environment Caucus for the liberals. But she, who previously defended the Trudeau government policies, says now she defends the Mark Carney government policies because we need to be pragmatic, is her message. We need to balance the economy and the climate. And she and others argue that that balance went too far under the Trudeau government. there's a few things to keep in mind when you are thinking about the Kearney government and thinking

about where it's headed. The first is that he has an imperative to not look like the Justin Trudeau government. And he is very clearly doing that in these policy changes. But then of course, there are people from the Trudeau era still in his caucus who might think differently about that. So that's one balance that he is trying to strike, trying to address. The other thing is that he believes Canada is in an economic crisis that needs dramatic and significant work. And so he is doing what he believes is right in that. The potential risk that some people see and that some people are wondering about is whether he is going so far to alienate his left flank of the base. Remember, the liberals have a very large tent right now. Their coalition of voters includes many

NDP voters who went liberal in the last election for fear of Donald Trump and for fear of Pierre Pauliev. And so to keep that coalition together, the question from people on the left is whether he is going too far, whether he is taking them for granted, and that in the long run, it could lead to an opening for other political parties to claw back some of the seats that they lost to the liberals. Does the Gilbo resignation or this discontent from the Climate Caucus, does that weaken Carney's power? That's the question going forward. Mark Carney will have to call four by-elections this year. One is Stephen Gibot's riding, which is a progressive riding in Montreal.

The other is Nate Erskine-Skins-Smith riding, who is also expected to resign. He's in downtown Toronto, also considered a very progressive riding. The other is Jonathan Wilkinson from the Metro Vancouver area. And then, of course, we have former NDPMP, Alexandra Boulorice, who was also expected to quit his Montreal riding to run provincially. So those are four by-elections coming up that I think will really answer our question right now about, is Mr. Carney actually taking the left flank of his coalition for granted? Or does he have the support that he thinks he has? And the reason why I say that this will answer that question is because the liberals will be tested and need to hold on to these seats in order to maintain their majority. This is a high-stakes moment for Mark Carney. He needs to hold on to the three liberal seats that are being vacated by his MPs.

And liberals are also hoping that they can pick up that seat that used to be held by the NDP in Montreal. But the opposition parties will fight hard for these seats because they, of course, have an imperative to try and knock the liberals back to a minority. Let's talk a little bit more about the other parties here, because this could present an opportunity, right? Let's talk about the conservatives, because obviously the conservatives are probably happy to see Gilbo go. They never supported him and, frankly, hated his policies. But what does this departure mean for them? Like, does it present an opportunity? It's so interesting.

In many ways, it presents more of a challenge. Oh. Because Mark Carney is eating their policy lunch. He is doing so many of the things that Pierre Polyev has championed. He is reversing so many of the things that the conservatives have criticized, that it makes it more difficult for the conservatives to actually say what they would do differently from Mark Carney. Of course, Pierre Polyev wouldn't agree. with that. He would say, you know, they are the Trudeau Liberals, that they are too far to the left

of the spectrum. But the fact of the matter is that he got rid of the consumer carbon price. He got rid of the emissions cap for the oil and gas sector. That's what the conservatives were championing. And so it actually is Mark Carney taking away more and more of the policy that Pierre Polyeuf has been championing. On the flip side, I think it does lead to questions about an opening for the Block Quebecois or the NDP if they have the capacity to seize it. It's a big question mark. The NDP are so politically weak right now, have such a small number of MPs in the House of Commons, have serious financial issues, and a leader who does not have a seat himself in the House of Commons. So it's a big question if they can seize this moment. But the possibility is there.

And how the NDP manage in, I think, the by-election in Beaches East York, for example, in Toronto. will really speak to whether they actually still have any political game left. We'll be right back. So you mentioned a few climate policies that Carney has already rolled back, like the consumer carbon price, the emissions cap on oil and gas. He also repealed the EV mandate. And let's not forget, he closed down the 2 billion trees program. So there's a lot of changes there.

And then there's this MOU between Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, which earlier you said was the last straw for Gilbo. So can we dive a bit deeper into this? What details about that deal were so upsetting to him? It's really twofold. I think it is the dramatic expansion in oil production that will come from having a new pipeline. Filling that pipeline with oil means more oil sands production, more extraction. But also, I think the important thing from a climate perspective to remember,

member is that the industrial carbon price was really the backbone of the climate policy brought in by Justin Trudeau's liberals. And that carbon price was going to be $170 by 2030. It will now be around $130 by 2040. And Gilbo says that that is a dramatic weakening of the carbon price and that it essentially is what dramatically shifts Canada's targets on emissions. And he says we now don't have a credible climate plan because of those changes. You know, we've lost, obviously, 10-year delay in the application of industrial carbon pricing. We've lost consumer carbon pricing, which we were told would be replaced by more stringent industrial pricing.

It's not happening. We're delaying by 10 years, the stringency of, well, I mean, not even. in this stringency, getting to where we were supposed to be in 2030, we'll be there by 2040. What proponents who champion this new carbon price say is that while the actual dollar figure is lower than what was suggested by the Trudeau Liberals or planned by the Trudeau Liberals, it is actually a stronger system. A more robust market will be created. And therefore, even though the headline price is way lower than what the previous liberal government contemplated, the actual way that it functions will be more reliable, bring more

certainty to the carbon market, and therefore make it more effective. Why do I think it's going to be stronger? Because in this new deal, Alberta agrees to bring in what's called a price floor. So it legislates or regulates a way to ensure that carbon credits are not being traded at a dollar value so far below what the policy price is set at. And that wasn't previously in place. And what they saw was that in Alberta, the carbon credits were trading way, way, way below the price set by the federal government. And so this addresses that gap, but it addresses it at a lower price. And so Stephen Gabo is concerned that it won't drive the emissions reductions, the investments in technology to drive the emissions reductions, that he says, are.

an imperative to address climate change. Again, the prime minister does not agree with this. The prime minister believes that the past plan was not going to drive the results that the government said it would, and because of that, was not truly credible. I want to bring up one more policy change. The government has also proposed changing how environmental assessments for development projects would be done. Can you explain what happened there?

This is another very contentious issue. the Justin Trudeau government brought in a bill that was widely criticized by conservatives and industry as being too cumbersome, essentially being a block on new investments and on major projects. The Carney government is now proposing major changes to environmental assessments to speed them up, to bring industry and businesses more certainty in order to make investment decisions. because the Carney government's imperative is to try and get companies to invest to build in Canada in order to spur our economic growth. Among these changes are streamlining our environmental review process. They include, for example, on pipelines having cabinet give the green light ahead of a technical review of the proposed pipeline. And so it's raising a lot of concerns in the climate movement that it will not bring the rigor. needed to the review of these issues. We don't yet know what the final policy will look like

because the government released just a discussion papers to open a consultation on this, but we are expecting that within the next few weeks, we will see the final details because the government is expected to table this legislation before the House rises. What Stephen Gilbeau says is that this is an example of the government trying to go so fast that it actually backfired because if you don't bring people on board like indigenous groups, you end up bogged down in the courts. You end up with other problems, and you lose the social license needed to get these major projects built.

My fear, and certainly when I look at what's happening on climate change, when I look at the discussion papers on impact assessment reforms, is that what will likely happen is what happened under Prime Minister Harper, by trying to go too fast to remove important elements of our democracy in terms of public consultation, in terms of understanding what the impacts of some of these big projects are, then as a government, you lose social license. Marika, to end, a lot of what has happened in the last few weeks around climate policy really seems to be about tradeoffs, like both in terms of policy and in terms of politics.

And of course, that's a very tricky balance, especially with an issue like climate change, which is kind of a long-term vision. Is the prime minister getting it right in terms of governing for the moment right now and for also the future challenges that await us? I'm just wondering, is he being short-sighted here? I think that's the million-dollar question. We have a major deficit in Canada. We need private sector revenues to address that deficit. And we need the economic growth in order to maintain our standard of living. in Canada. The prime minister was primarily elected on addressing those issues. Donald Trump was the

main driver of that election last year. He is making risky decisions. He is spending his political capital. He's saying that he's doing it in order to address what he sees as a lack of strategic autonomy. He talks about this all the time in his speeches, that Canada needs to have more sovereignty more security, and it has that by diversifying its economic growth, to no longer rely so much on the United States. On the flip side, when you're talking about the long-term effects of things and the long-term decision-making, climate activists and environmentalists have pointed me towards past comments he used to make in speeches before he was the prime minister, for example, one called Tragedy of the Horizon, in which she was quite emphatic about the need to address

climate change about the closing window. The climate change is a tragedy of the horizon. The combination of the weight of scientific evidence and the dynamics of the financial system suggest that in the fullness of time, climate change will threaten financial resilience and longer-term prosperity. While there's still time to act, the window is finite and is closing. More and more I'm hearing from climate activists who say that he is not striking that balance, but we are very clearly hearing from the prime minister that he believes

he is striking that balance. He has made that point several times this week, and it will be for voters to decide if he's right. Marika, thank you so much. My pleasure. Thank you. That was Marika Walsh, the Globe's senior political reporter. That's it for today. I'm Cheryl Sutherland. Cynthia Jimenez is our associate producer and intern. Ali Graham mixed this episode. Our producers are Madeline White, Rachel Levy McLaughlin and Mikhail Stein. Our editor is David Crosby. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening.