The Decibel - A divided Alberta: What comes next?

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

Alberta is a province with a long history of conservative rule. And on Monday, Danielle Smith and the UCP added a new chapter by winning a majority. But it wasn’t a blowout. Rachel Notley and the NDP managed to score 38 seats, up from 23 in the previous sitting of the legislature.This is creating a new political dynamic in the province and Globe reporter and columnist Kelly Cryderman is on the show to explain what it means for the rest of the country.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail]

As Alberta's election came to a close Monday night, the Globe's reporters covered the results. Jana Pruden was at the NDP's headquarters in Edmonton. So, you know, as we can hear right now, things are getting a little more boisterous. The room has been filling up throughout the night. And I think, as we've seen that some of the races are quite close. And Kerry Tate was at the United Conservative Party's headquarters in Calgary. It was a little bit odd at first you know the the vibe was a little off it

was a little calmer as the votes were coming in really slow at the beginning of the night. The month-long campaign was a rollercoaster. And for much of it, polls showed both parties neck and neck. And I've certainly, a lot of the other people I've talked to here, they talk about this election not only in terms of who's going to govern the province for the next four years, but actually that there's a lot of really existential issues at play around what kind of province we want to have about some of the values of the province. So it feels different,

I think, than a lot of elections where the stakes might feel a bit lower. Once it was clear that the UCP had secured a majority, the place came to life. That happened at about 11 p.m., which is really late in Alberta terms. That's where we started getting UCP chants. And the crowd reacted to Rachel Notley's concession speech. There were some boos. And when their leader, the winner, Danielle Smith, came on, of course, they lit up.

In the end, the UCP earned a majority government. But the NDP picked up 15 seats and will now be the biggest opposition party the province has ever seen. And so I'm really hopeful that, you know, we have a really strong opposition government again. We're going to be able to see some real change and contributions that really matter. And I think that that's what matters at the end of the day. I'm one of those folks that's radical enough that this, to me, is the centrist party, and that the centrist party can't even win. It's kind of disappointing. What a night it's been.

In this finally important time for Eleanor, I am proud to celebrate the re-election of a united Conservative Party government. So today, Kelly Kreiderman is on the show. She's a Globe reporter and columnist based in Calgary. And she's going to talk about where this politically divided Alberta goes from here and what the UCP and Daniel Smith's victory mean for the rest of the country. I'm Maina Karaman-Wilms and this is The Decibel from The Globe and Mail. So Kelly, I'm a bit of a political junkie, so I'm really excited to actually hear your take on what went down in Alberta on Monday night.

Thank you so much for being here. Glad to be here. Glad to be here. So we're talking Tuesday morning, the morning after the election, and we're going to get into some of the analysis of the impact the Alberta election might have more broadly. But first, I think it is important that we just look at the results of Monday night. So Kelly, what's the first thing that you thought when the election was called for Daniel Smith? This election, this election is so close that nobody wanted to celebrate out loud in that room. It was different than other conservative headquarters on election night in Alberta that I have covered in that they were being cautious. And it was when CTV called the election a majority UCP government. That's when the big

cheer went up in the room. And that's when you could see everybody relax. That's interesting that you said the UCP headquarters was kind of quiet in that way or reserved. From what I could see of the NDP headquarters, there's a lot of cheering. It seemed like a very kind of boisterous atmosphere there. So I guess there's a seemed like a bit of a difference. Yeah. And, you know, certainly there was NDP hopes that they could win this election. They knew, you know, someone described it as a goat trail versus the highway that the conservatives had in terms of the path to winning, right? The numbers, the odds favoured the UCP. You got to think about where the NDP in Alberta was 10 years ago, which was nowhere, which was firmly an opposition party, not seen as a mainstream political party in Alberta.

And these results today, giving them their best result ever in terms of the popular vote, certainly they would have liked more, but it does reinforces the idea that they are a mainstream political party, that, you know, if there is an election again anytime soon, which is possible always, or in four years, it is likely going to be between the UCP and the NDP. And that is a change in Alberta political history. Okay, so let's dig into these results a little bit more. And specifically, I want to talk about Premier-elect Daniel Smith here for a second, because I think a lot of Canadians outside of Alberta honestly might only know her for the controversies that she's been involved in. I mean,

she's used comparisons to the Nazis when talking about vaccines. She promoted some questionable COVID treatments, and we can use that term loosely, when she was a radio host. I mean, these are pretty contentious things. What effect did this aspect of Smith's leadership actually have on the vote?

Yeah, it did have an effect. Certainly, I heard that from regular people. I heard that from non-political people. And it was the main theme of the campaign. And you have to realize, too, it wasn't only what she said before reentering politics. It wasn't only what she said as a media personality. It was also what she said as premier, even talking about the unvaccinated being the most discriminated group that she has seen in her lifetime, having a conversation with a very radical street preacher in January as premier, and then making his case to the justice minister a few hours later in a phone call, something that the ethics commissioner called out during the campaign. So it's not just things she said prior to being premier. It's things she did as premier. And you heard her even address that and and reference it in her

speech last night. Now, I won't be perfect, of course. We all know that. But when I make a mistake, I will listen, correct course and learn from it so that I can improve and become a better leader. There was always this belief by conservatives that many of the ideas that Albertans held about Danielle Smith, you know, the things that she was prone to say in this regard were already baked in to Albertans decision making. So there was an idea that they could get past this despite this. And talking to conservative strategists at UCP headquarters, they really saw the turning point of the campaign as the only leaders debate of the campaign. May 18th, kind of a midpoint of the campaign. Can you just talk about the debate as a turning point in the campaign a bit? And is May 18th the most important day of the campaign? If we will have won this campaign, that will be the day that it was won.

There was a lot of people across the province that had only seen a caricature of Danielle Smith. And at that point, a lot of them saw her firsthand and looked, and what they were seeing didn't match up with what they'd heard. You had a narrative that she was someone prone to saying off the wall things. So when people saw her at a debate, acting calm, measured, speaking like a more mainstream conservative, it exceeded expectations that many people had if they just started to pay attention then. And that was a very purposeful strategy on the part of the Conservatives. Interesting. Okay. So the UCP did win the majority. But it's interesting to note that a number of UCP cabinet ministers from before were actually defeated in this vote,

including the former health minister, Jason Copping, the deputy premier, Casey Maddow, and maybe also Justice Minister Tyler Shandro, who looks like he lost his seat, but looks like they'll probably do a recount now. So, Kelly, I wonder, did these cabinet ministers losing, did that surprise you? No, no, it was always possible. But that doesn't diminish the fact that her government has lost a lot of bench strength. We're not only talking about those cabinet ministers who lost, who are in key portfolios, as you mentioned,

justice and health, the deputy premier. But also, even before the election, we saw Sonia Savage, the environment minister, the former energy minister, leave politics. She was seen as a steady hand. We saw Travis Taves leave the former finance minister who came in second after Daniel Smith and the leadership contest. What this election also shows is the province is divided on regional lines, right? You know, you have the UCP completely shut out of Edmonton. You have the NDP almost completely shut out, almost completely shut out of areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary. And there's notable exceptions like Lethbridge and like Banff. In the rural areas, you're saying they're shut out of the rural areas. Right. Yes.

And then you have this divide in Calgary where you don't have UCP representation in the inner city in Calgary either. So there's clearly regional divisions. And I've heard pollsters talk about the fact that there's regional divisions between urban and rural areas across Canada. But those divisions are stronger in Alberta. We'll be back in a minute. We've been talking a lot about the UCP, but let's let's talk a little bit about the NDP and its leader, Rachel Notley. So she lost, but she didn't resign on Monday night. Some people are surprised by that, including one person that we spoke to at the NDP election event. I'm not going to lie. I was slightly expecting a resignation

speech because, you know, she's been leader for a decade. She's been extremely public figure for eight. She's lost two elections. It's been a long time. But at the same time, who would lead? There's not really a natural replacement for her yet. I don't know. After that speech, I am glad she's staying on. That was a very good speech that touched on a lot of what needed to be touched on. Kelly, why do you think that Notley stayed on? She is very much the Alberta NDP. Even conservatives who do not like the NDP, a lot of them like Rachel Notley. And you did hear her say, she used words, something on Monday

night, something along the lines of continuing on. It is my honour to serve as your leader, and it is my privilege to continue to serve as leader of the official opposition. If she was leaving, and I don't know if and when she will, there would be a strong desire to have an orderly transition. So I don't think it's going to happen overnight because I think there is recognition within the party, even though they have built this mainstream Alberta party that very much that rests on her shoulders to a large extent, as it does in every party, but she continually pulls even above her party. OK. We also talked to party supporters on Monday night about their top issues, the things that they cared about in this election. This is some of what they said.

One is the economy. It's always the economy. Number two has been health care. I would say health care, considering I use it quite often with my own health issues. And so privatizing it would be just just fundamentally not affordable for me. This time it's still about the economy and jobs, but there's some softer elements, and it's not so much one ballot box question, but affordability is a huge thing, as well as public safety. For myself, personally, definitely health care was the biggest ticket for me. The two most important issues in this election were education and health care was the biggest ticket for me. The two most important issues in this election were education and health care. So those are some of the things on voters' minds.

But was there anything else that ended up tilting the scales here? Yeah, I think all those things were huge. I think an undercurrent in any Alberta election is the relationship with the federal government. You know, so much of governing in Canada takes place away from Ottawa, as you know, if you're paying attention, and there are going to be tensions with a province like Alberta, which is the home to the oil and gas industry, which is the home to conservatism. Those two things are related. Albertans know that there's going to be conflict with Ottawa one way or the

other. And upcoming, and Daniel Smith referenced this in her speech last night, the really big issues are the proposed cap on oil and gas emissions and the net zero goals by 2035, which are a lot more difficult for Alberta than other provinces. Let me be clear, this is not a road we can afford to go down. If he persists, he will be hurting Canadians from coast to coast and he will strain the patience and goodwill of Albertans in an unprecedented fashion. And as Premier, I cannot, under any circumstances, allow these contemplated federal policies to be inflicted upon Albertans.

I simply can't and I won't. It would be a contentious issue whether Rachel Notley or Daniel Smith was premier. So I think that how Albertans view that relationship and who is best positioned to deal with Ottawa is a question in voters' minds. Right. And on the topic of Ottawa, I'm wondering here how important Daniel Smith's win is for the federal conservatives. Like, is her win a good thing or a bad thing for leader Pierre Polyev? That's a good question. I think it depends how her time goes in office leading up to the next federal election. But at the same time, they're very similar on many areas of policy, including oil and gas, including carbon taxes. I think it does matter how it goes on specific issues like crime and social disorder, or energy, or how Daniel Smith is faring in the polls, say, a year from now.

Okay, so those are kind of the dynamics nationally. But coming back to the polls, say, a year from now. OK, so those are kind of the dynamics nationally. But coming back to the province, earlier in the election, our colleague, Carrie Tate, she reported on the very conservative populist network called Take Back Alberta. This is a very conservative group that supports Smith. So I wonder, did the election results give us a sense of how much power this faction holds? I don't think this election result per se does. I think, you know, if anything, there was concern expressed by some voters about that

and their candidates. And by the way, I saw some Take Back Alberta shirts at UCP headquarters last night. So there is a presence. I think that speaks to the question of what kind of premier Danielle Smith is going to be. Who is she going to surround herself with? Take Back Alberta, they are definitely an sway they have in school boards, in local government, in municipal government. They're an organized force right now. And I think this election result came despite them. And now they important because no conservative premier in Alberta has served a complete term in office since Ralph Klein stepped down as leader in 2006. There's been a lot of turnover here. So what will Smith have to do to keep her job? That's a really good question.

That is the question in a lot of ways that Albertans have seen a lot of political turmoil in the last 15, 16 years since Ralph Klein left. And that is not only a function of conservative infighting that we have seen in the Western world, right? If you think about there's been infighting in the Federal Conservative Party as well, there are factions. And how long a leader will stay is always a question, right? But I think the thing that makes Alberta unique is the volatility of our budgeting and our economy. So Albertans are the owner of non-renewable resources. Royalty rates are the rates that companies pay to the Alberta government to get the oil out of the So this is income for the government then? up and down based on commodity prices, formulas, pipeline access, all of those things. So it's a huge part.

And volatility in that adds to the volatility in Alberta politics. Kelly, I want to end here by asking, after Monday's results, what trajectory do you think the province is on going forward? I think it reinforces the idea that the conservative movement is the natural governing movement of the province. But I also think it firmly entrenches the NDP as a mainstream political party. You have a dynamic where you have two very different parties going forward in elections if things hold as they are. I don't see the turmoil ending in Alberta politics. I don't see the churn ending. And I think that is a concern for Albertans.

You know, as an Albertan, I worry about stability and health care and education and the economy. And I think that's a common sentiment. I don't think regular people enjoy the churn in politics. Kelly, this was fascinating. Thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me. Thank you. Thank you very much. That's it for today. I'm Maenika Raman-Wellms. Special thanks to former interns Andrew Hines and Tracy Thomas for going to the election night events. And thanks also to Jana Pruden and Carrie Tate. Our producers are Madeline White,

Cheryl Sutherland, and Rachel Levy-McLaughlin. David Crosby edits the show. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pachenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.