The Decibel - A splintered political landscape heading into Quebec’s election

Episode Date: October 5, 2026

Quebec is facing a fractured political landscape ahead of its election today, with no single party polling higher than 30 per cent in the run-up to the election. And there are important issues hanging over the campaign, from separatism to spending issues to U.S. President Donald Trump.Today, The Globe and Mail’s Quebec correspondent, Maura Forrest, explains why the province’s parties have failed to inspire voters and how a party with less than 30 per cent support might end up forming a majority government.Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today is Quebec's election. There are five parties vying for seats across the province, which isn't unheard of in provincial elections. Except that in Quebec right now, none of the parties are especially popular. There are big issues hanging over the election, from Quebec sovereignty to long-standing spending concerns, to U.S. President Donald Trump.

So today, we're talking to the globe's Quebec correspondent, Mora Forrest. She'll tell us what Quebec voters are thinking about, why the parties have failed to inspire voters and how a party polling below 30% might end up with a majority government. I'm Manika Ramman-Wilms, and this is the decibel from the Globe and Mail.

Maura, thanks so much for taking the time to be here. Oh, thanks for having me. Can you start by just giving us a sense of the overall feeling of this election campaign in Quebec? What have things been like in the province in the lead up to this election? Well, I think it's been sort of a strange election. I mean, you mentioned the fact that there

of five parties. And you're right that it's not unheard of, but it's unusual. And it's unusual to have five parties that could each win a handful or more of seats in the legislature. And so what you've seen in this election is you've seen a lot of division among the electorate. And I think the sense that, you know, we sort of have in this campaign is that people just haven't really been blown away by their options. They have a lot of options. But I think, you know, what we're seeing is a lot of noise. There are these five leaders. There are a lot of announcements every day. And I think that, you know, we're not seeing Quebecers really fall in love with any of their five options this time around.

Okay. So as you say, a lot of options, a lot of noise, but kind of an uninspiring campaign, it sounds like, in the province. Can you give us a sense of where these five parties are standing here, more so broadly speaking, how popular is each one and which one is in the lead? Well, we're very likely going to see a parts of Quebec government once the votes are counted. The big question I think right now is whether that's going to be a minority or a majority. The Parzei-Kébecois has been leading in the polls for just about three years now, even though they were reduced almost to nothing in the last election in 2022. They won only three seats.

So it's really been quite a remarkable comeback for the PQ this time around. Yeah, to go from something like three seats to potentially winning a majority, that is a huge change. Yeah, it's remarkable. And I mean, Quebec is sort of known for these kind of big swings. back and forth. This isn't the first time you've seen something like this happen. But what's interesting here is that the PQ, they've been leading in the polls consistently, but they've never really moved above 30% in this campaign. So they're not sweeping Quebecers off their feet, even though they do remain in the lead and they could potentially, because of the division on the rest of the

playing field, they could potentially even form a majority with less than 30% of the vote. Okay, so we have the PQ, the party Quebecois, in the lead at the moment. Let's just take a minute and quickly go through all the parties here. So we've got the PQ, as we said. Then there's Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ, there's the Quebec Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Quebec Soliderre. So let's start with the CAQ. How are they faring? Yeah, so the incumbent, of course, the governing party is the Coalition Avenir Quebec. They've been in government for the last eight years. Most of that time, under the leadership of Francois LeGo, the former Premier, who started off very popular. They got a big majority in

2018 and they got a larger majority in 2022. And then they sort of fell off a cliff. There were a number of controversial decisions. François Legault, his popularity really collapsed in the last few years. He eventually, I think, saw the writing on the wall and announced earlier this year that he would resign. And so now we've seen Christine Frischette, one of his ministers, take over. She's now the leader of the party and the premier. She just took over earlier this year in the spring, actually. So she's pretty fresh in the role. She is, yeah. And I think, you know, when she took over, a lot of people were saying, well, the CAQ is really looking at trying to save the furniture. I mean, projections at the time were saying they could lose all of their seats in this election.

So there wasn't a ton of optimism around her taking on this role. But she did, in fact, managed to orchestrate a bit of a comeback. She really tried hard to show that she could work with Mark Carney, who's very popular in Quebec. They made a bunch of announcements together. And she did manage to boost the party standing in the polls. And actually, at the start of this campaign, it looked like they might even challenge the PQ, but that's really fallen off. I think people, more than anything, they want change in this election,

and she does not represent enough change for people. And so now we're back in a situation where the CAQ once again looks like it could lose every one of its seats in this election. And again, that's a dramatic change because they have, what do they have? Close to 80 seats right now in the legislature, right, Mora? That's right. They have 79 now. I think they won the last election with about 90, and they've had a bunch of people leave. But yes, it would be a really dramatic change. basically the fortunes of the PQ and the CAQ could be completely reversed compared to what they were in 2022. Can we just spend another moment on the CAQ, the Coalition Avenia Quebec, the incumbent government here? Because you're saying, you know, they did lose a lot of popular support over the last few years.

What were some of the decisions that the government made that I guess really has turned the population against them? There's a whole variety. And I mean, every government, I think, accumulates this baggage over time. It's impossible not to. But I think one of the big things that hurt the CAQ is that one of their big things was that they were going to be the party of the economy. They presented themselves as a really strong economic team and they were going to really help boost Quebec's economy and take it to the next level. And I think people feel like they did not follow through on that or they did not deliver on their promises. And so there were several projects that I think really hurt the CAQ.

So these were investments that the government made in projects that they felt were going to be very beneficial. to Quebec. So one example is this company North Volt that was going to build a battery plant outside of Montreal. It eventually just fell apart. And the government ended up losing $270 million on that investment. And so there were those kinds of issues. There was another issue that really hurt the CAQ a few years ago and sort of has continued to dog them. was this question of building a new tunnel or bridge connecting Quebec City to the suburbs on the south side of the St. Lawrence River. And the CAQ had promised this for a long time. And then at a certain point, a few years ago, they reversed course and said they weren't going to do it. And that made people very angry in that region. And then they flip-flopped again and said they were going to do it. And all of that, I think, just sort of began to erode people's trust in this government. And then there were other kind of sort of absurd issues that really took up a lot of space.

For example, a few years ago, Francois Lego announced that he was going to spend more than $5 million to bring the L.A. King's NHL hockey team to Quebec City for a couple of exhibition games. Yes, I vaguely remember this. This became a huge issue, didn't it? It did. And it was such a crazy thing, but it really blew up in his face. People were outraged that the government would spend that amount of taxpayer. money on something that seemed so frivolous. And you still hear people talking about it today. Like I talked to people at campaign events who, you know, when I asked, you know, what were the things about the CAQ legacy that that you didn't like? That's something that people still talk about. So it really made an impression. So I think it was just an accumulation of all these different

things that have made people feel like they need something different. Okay. That kind of gives us a sense here of why the CAQ has lost the popularity that it once held, why the incumbent government is so unpopular at this moment. Mara, let's move on to talk about the Quebec liberals who are actually the official opposition right now in the province. They're polling somewhere in the below 20s at the moment. How are things looking for them? Well, they are the official opposition. They will likely remain the official opposition.

That's the most likely outcome at this point. The liberals have been struggling in Quebec. And they've been struggling for years. This is not a new thing. They really have sort of lost ground among Francophone voters. They have a very strong base. They always have had in Montreal and areas around Montreal, particularly among Anglophones and non-Frankophone voters. But in the rest of the province with Francophone voters who are the voters who ultimately decide elections, they've just lost a lot of traction.

And I think, you know, part of that is to do with the CAQ. The CAQ came into power for the first time in 2018 and provided an alternative for voters who did not want a referendum. but who still felt like they were not federalists necessarily, but nationalists. They wanted a government that was going to defend Quebec's identity and priorities. The CAQ provided a new avenue for those people by saying, listen, we're going to fight for Quebec. We're not federalist. We're nationalist. We're autonomous. But we're not going to have a referendum. And that really attracted a lot of voters.

And the liberals, I think, have never since then managed to be able to position themselves as a good choice for Francophone nationalist voters who don't want a referendum. They just haven't been able to make themselves a compelling alternative to the PQ, I think, at this moment where people are looking for change.

We are going to talk about the PQ again in more depth than just a minute here, Mora. But first, let's just touch on the two smaller parties on the left and right. So we've got the Conservatives and we've also got Quebec Saladère. How are they doing in this campaign?

Yeah, I think the conservatives are a really interesting story in this campaign. They are a pretty new or newly sort of recreated party in Quebec. They were founded in 2009, I believe, by their leader, Iik Tzuem. And they have not, to date, won a seat in the National Assembly. They have one seat now from someone who crossed the floor from the CAQ, but they haven't ever won a seat in Quebec.

They almost certainly will this time. And they could win quite a few. They could win, you know, even 20 seats, which would be really a breakthrough for them. Yeah, it sounds like they could actually be a bit of a, force in their own right in this election then? They really could. And I mean, they're not going to form government. They're not campaigning to form government. But what they're hoping for is a minority government in which they could hold the balance of power. But, you know, they're interesting because they are, there hasn't

been a lot of appetite necessarily for what, for the kind of politics that they're offering until this moment. And, you know, really what they are saying is that, you know, their number one message in this campaign is that Quebecers pay some of the highest taxes. And they do that with the understanding that they're going to receive good services in return. But that pact has kind of been broken. You know, there are a lot of Quebecers out there who feel like the health care system is failing them, that they're not getting the services that are commensurate with the amount that they're paying in taxes. And so what the conservatives are saying is we're kind of going to blow that up. They're campaigning on major tax cuts. They're campaigning on more private health care.

They're saying they want to, you know, cut the size of government pretty dramatically. They want to cut regulation. You know, it's the kind of conservative politics that I think, you know, there's a, there's a much stronger tradition of that in other parts of the country. But in Quebec, you haven't seen that as much. You haven't seen it gaining a lot of traction. And it really is this time, particularly in the regions around Quebec city. People really are seeing themselves in that message. And then, of course, we've got Quebec Saladere, which is on the other side of the spectrum. Do they have much support or what is, where is their support standing in this election? Well, they have their base of support. largely in like urban progressive ridings around university campuses in Montreal and Quebec City.

They have a handful of seats. They're trying to hold on to those seats. They're campaigning on proposals like a wealth tax, like publicly run grocery stores, some of the same things that you hear federally from the NDP. But I think it's, you know, beyond their sort of loyal base. I don't think these are messages that are resonating all that much with Quebecers right now. We'll be right back. Okay. So, Morrow, we've talked three. all the five major parties that are in this election. Let's dive further into the Party Quebeco, though. This is the party that is doing the best in the polls. They look likely to win this election. But their popularity is hovering around 30 percent. And they haven't really

been able to grow much beyond that number. So what's going on with this party? You know, I think a big factor there is sovereignty, is their promise of a referendum. So their leader, Paul Saint-Pierre Plamandon, he took over the party in 2020 at a time when it was really struggling. And a lot of people felt at that time, well, maybe this debate over sovereignty is over. Maybe we don't need it anymore. And there was this idea that perhaps the Partsique was sort of a spent political force. And in 2022, the party won only three seats, their worst result ever. Paul St. Pierre Plamondon, when he took over the party, he made a decision to run very explicitly on the promise of a referendum. So he has said since 2020, very consistently,

that he is going to hold a referendum within the first mandate of a PQ government. Is that a popular thing in Quebec right now, this idea of a referendum on sovereignty? No, it's not. It's actually quite unpopular right now. Support for sovereignty is polling below 30%. It's roughly the same proportion that supports the PQ and there's a lot of overlap there. Most of PQ supporters are sovereintists. And so I think when Posse Plym Plymando, when he made that promise to hold a referendum, what he managed to do. do is to really consolidate the PQ base. So that 30% of Quebecers who want a referendum, they are very loyal to him. And so he's managed to ensure that he can't drop really below that 30

percent. Like that is a very solid base for him. But it has also prevented him from expanding much beyond that. He's got this ceiling as well because most Quebecers don't want a referendum. He's also, as you say, he said he was going to have a referendum in his first term. But he's also made the statement that he's not going to do a referendum on sovereignty until Trump leaves the White House in 2029. What is the strategy, Mora, behind this move of delaying the referendum until after Trump leaves the White House? Well, I think it is, I mean, certainly it was a strategic move. I think it was a strategy that seems to be paying off for him. In effect, what he did was he has been very open about his plan to hold a referendum since he became PQ leader in 2020. Earlier this year,

in June, I believe, he published a book of more than 500 pages long, basically laying out his vision for sovereignty, so how an independent Quebec would function, how it would be structured, how it would have its own army and its own currency and so on. And so then when it came time to, for the campaign, he was basically able to say, listen, I have put this all out there. I am not, this is not a secret. You know what I'm going to do. I've been extremely transparent. about it. But then right before the campaign, he made this announcement that he was not going to hold a referendum until after Donald Trump leaves the White House. And the reason he gave was that, you know, this is an uncertain time for Quebecers is an unusual time. And so it doesn't make

sense to hold a referendum at this very unusual moment for Quebecers. And so he, after he made that announcement, he basically stopped talking about sovereignty. And he's talked about it almost not at all through the campaign, except when he's asked about it. And I think as a result, sovereignty has taken up surprisingly little space in this campaign. So I think he was quite effective in that strategy. And I think Quebecers sort of had the sense that, you know, the referendum, if it happens, it's not happening now. It's not, you know, today's issue. But I think he's managed to defuse it of a lot of its potential to scare people. So, you know, I think as a result, you haven't seen the sort of anti-referendum vote kind of coalescing against any with any of the PQ's

opponents. There's sort of a sentiment, at least around part of the population now, that, you know, well, the referendum might happen down the road, but if it does, we can vote no, you know. So this is not an issue that we need to worry about overly much right now at a time when people are, you know, much more concerned about, you know, the cost of living, about housing, about putting food on the table. You know, all those things that I think are issues across the country. Those are the things that I think people are really thinking about right now. And so a referendum is just sort of kind of in the background. It's really, really interesting how this is all playing out here, Mara. I mentioned Trump a little bit when asking about the timing of this referendum. But I do want to

ask you more directly about how U.S. President Donald Trump and relations with the U.S. in general, how they're factoring into this campaign. Do we see them having an impact? Well, they certainly seemed to be having an impact at the start of the campaign. So this campaign kicked off on August 27 just a few days after trade talks had fallen apart between Canada and the United States. So that was very much front of mind. And the latest round of U.S. tariffs were set to take effect a few days later, I believe. So certainly that was very much at the top of people's minds when the campaign began. And you saw the CAQ leader, Christine Frischette, really lean into that. So she had, you know, made various efforts in the last few months to show that she could work with Mark Carney,

work with the federal government. She made various announcements alongside Mark Carney. And I think she was sort of trying to emulate Mark Carney to sort of do what he had been able to do in last year's federal election, where I think he very effectively was able to channel the fear of Donald Trump into support for his government. She even said very clearly at the start of this campaign, her main opponent is Donald Trump. That's kind of how she was laying it out. She did, yeah. And for a moment, that seemed to be paying off.

She had this bump in the polls right after the election began when people were very concerned about the tariff war. And for a moment there, it seemed like she could actually challenge the PQ and that, you know, people might really want the kind of stability that she was pitching. She was sort of saying, you know, I'm a steady hand at the wheel. I've been doing this job. I can work with Mark Carney. I'm kind of like him in some ways. that was sort of the pitch, I think. And yeah, there seemed to be an appetite for that for a little while. But I think then, you know, people sort of adapted to, you know, this new reality or this new phase of the Canada-U.S. trade dispute.

I think people sort of just took it in stride. And that level of anxiety and fear around the U.S. president, I think, has kind of waned a little bit in the latter weeks of the campaign. and I think that's part of the reason that you've seen the CAQ support drop off. I think people have remembered, oh, yeah, this is still the government that we've had for the last eight years that we don't really want anymore. So that Trump effect, I think, was there for a moment and kind of tapered off. Marrow, we've talked about a whole bunch of things here. It seems like the public has very divided opinions in this election. What does it say about the state of affairs in Quebec that things are so fractured heading into this vote? I think we're in this sort of strange moment where you have these five parties that are all appealing to different segments of the electorate.

You know, for a long time, Quebec politics was pretty straightforward. It was federalist or sovereignist, liberal or PQ. And then the CAQ came in and said, you know, here's a third option. You can be a nationalist and not want a referendum. and we're going to offer that. And that sort of, I think, paved the way for these new parties on the right and left, the Quebec Salidaire on the left and the conservatives on the right to sort of offer their own new vision for Quebec. And so you've seen the sort of political landscape of Quebec sort of blow up in a way in the last several years,

thanks in part to the CAQ sort of providing this alternative to the old debate over sovereignty. And so you've seen this fracturing of the electorate where there's like certain segments of the population that support all these different parties. But I think it feels to a certain extent untenable. Like the idea of having a majority government elected with less than 30% of the vote, I mean, that's never happened in Quebec. But I think, you know, given our first past the post electoral system, it's not designed to handle this kind of situation where you have these five parties that are, each holding on to one part of the voter base. And so I think it feels in a way like we're in this moment of transition maybe, but it's not clear, I think, what we're transitioning to.

And I think Quebec politics is always difficult to predict, but it feels like this particular moment, I think something is going to shift probably before the next election. I think this particular landscape probably cannot be sustained. but what we're moving toward in Quebec, I think, is not totally clear. Mara, it's been great talking to you. Thank you for taking the time to be here. Oh, thank you so much. That was Mara Forrest. She's the Globe's Quebec correspondent.

That's it for today. I'm Manika Ram and Wilms. Our producers are Madeline White, Cheryl Sutherland, and Rachel Levy McLaughlin. Our editor is David Crosby. Adrian Chung is our senior producer, and Angela Pichenza is our executive editor. Thanks so much for listening, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.